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Articles Reflecting on the Realities and Prospects of the Area in the Transforming Security Landscape

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Security in the Baltic Sea Region: Realities and Prospects The Rīga Conference Papers 2017 The Rīga Conference Papers 2017 offers a collection of articles reflecting on the realities and prospects of the area in the transforming security landscape. The changing national security strategies in the Baltic States and Poland are discussed, as well as the transformation of regional defence policies. Authors also reach beyond the region towards the manifestations of solidarity and assess the Baltic Sea Region amid the “new normal” in the relationship between the West and Russia. Last but not least, energy and economic security issues, as well as the non-tradition- al aspects of security are discussed. Editors: Andris Sprūds, Māris Andžāns Authors: Mika Aaltola, Māris Andžāns, Aldis Austers, Anne Bakker, Kristīne Bērziņa, Elisabeth Braw, Bastian Giegerich, Justyna Gotkowska, Glen Howard, Tomas Jermalavičius, Mikhail Kru- tikhin, Christian Leuprecht, Kadri Liik, Claudia Major, Patrik Maldre, Mariita Mattiisen, Dzian- is Melyantsou, Christian Mölling, Piret Pernik, Henrik Praks, Edgars Rinkēvičs, Uģis Romanovs, James Sherr, Joel Sokolsky, Flemming Splidsboel Hansen, Andris Sprūds, Ivan Timofeev, Ramūnas Vilpišauskas, Stéfanie von Hlatky, Anna Wieslander Coordinator: Diāna Potjomkina Language editor: Nicholas Archdeacon Cover design and layout: Gatis Vectirāns The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, any of the sponsors, any governmental or other entity. This project is managed by the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, supported by the Lat- vian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and NATO Public Diplomacy Division, and carried out in cooper- ation with the Latvian Transatlantic Organisation. The Rīga Conference is co-organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia. ISBN 978-9934-567-10-0 327(4)(062) Ri 481 © Authors of the articles, 2017 © Layout and cover design: Gatis Vectirāns, 2017 © Latvian Institute of International Affairs, 2017 Note by the Director of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs The Latvian Institute of International Affairs and its partners are pleased to offer you a publication of articles on security developments in the Baltic Sea region. This year’s Rīga Conference Papers build on the success of previous annual contributions to the Rīga Conference and endeavour to assess changing realities and outline the prospects for regional security. An outstanding group of distinguished international experts provide their insights on changes in Baltic security and defence policies, the transatlantic dimension and regional presence, repercus- sions of the “new normal” in relations between the West and Russia and non-traditional security challenges and responses in the Baltic Sea re- gion. We acknowledge the generous support provided by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia and the NATO Public Diplo- macy Division. As this publication demonstrates, solidarity and strong partnerships remain instrumental to successfully navigate times of un- certainty and transforming regional security landscapes. We hope you enjoy reading this volume! Andris Sprūds Director, Latvian Institute of International Affairs Address to the Participants of The Rīga Conference 2017 Edgars Rinkēvičs Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia The Riga Conference, with its extensive security focus over the years, has become a well-known and respectable forum for politicians, security experts, diplomats and journalists, promoting the discussion and assessment of issues affecting the transatlantic community. Riga is a great place for such discussions as it has been not only the most dynamic and vibrant city of the Baltic region but also a city located on NATO’s eastern flank. In the spirit of the European Union, NATO and the Charter of Partnership signed between the United States of America and the Baltic States almost 20 years ago, I am proud of the achievements of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – be they on political, economic, security, defence or environmental issues. It brings me confidence that the Baltic States are well prepared to deal with the current challenges to their security and well-being. Internal and external security are interlinked. We in the Baltic region are doing our homework to guarantee our common European and transatlantic security. I am proud that the Baltic states are receiving the highest level of trust from our allies and partners. For the last two decades, we have been a part of the transatlantic community, not as free riders, but as contributors to European and transatlantic security. The vision given by academia and scholars on security issues a decade ago has now become our reality. We are currently experiencing a mix of traditional and new security layers. Our own territories are sites for a great number of new challenges. We face questions about the liberal international world order, deepening divisions among the globalisation winners and losers, foreign-fighter terrorism, cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns and other hybrid warfare elements. I am confident that our common security rests profoundly on each and every country and region of the world. Northern Europe, our home region, is a good example of regional cooperation creating a good basis for deeper Euroatlantic cooperation. Once again, I am proud that Riga is host to this traditional and exceptional international Conference. I wish to express my deepest gratitude to the Latvian Institute of International Affairs for gathering a wide contribution of scholars on challenges to the security of the Baltic region. MINISTER’S ADDRESS TO THE PARTICIPANTS OF THE RĪGA CONFERENCE 2017 Edgars Rinkēvičs 4 INTRODUCTION BY THE EDITORS: THE REALITIES AND PROSPECTS OF THE BALTIC SEA REGION IN THE TRANSFORMING SECURITY LANDSCAPE Māris Andžāns, Andris Sprūds 10 The Baltic States and Poland: Adjusting to the New Realities THE TRILATERAL MILITARY COOPERATION OF THE BALTIC STATES IN THE “NEW NORMAL” SECURITY LANDSCAPE Uģis Romanovs, Māris Andžāns 14 ESTONIA AND THE MILITARY ASPECTS OF THE SECURITY OF THE BALTIC SEA REGION Henrik Praks 23 REINSTATING CONSCRIPTION IN LITHUANIA: BRINGING THE SOCIETY BACK INTO DEFENCE? Tomas Jermalavičius 33 POLISH DEFENCE POLICY AND THE SECURITY OF THE BALTIC SEA REGION Justyna Gotkowska 54 Transforming Regional Defence Policies GERMANY AND THE BALTIC SEE REGION: A TEST CASE FOR GERMANY’S NEW RESPONSIBILITY IN SECURITY POLICY Claudia Major, Christian Mölling 66 GERMANY’S DEFENCE POLICY AND BALTIC SECURITY Bastian Giegerich 76 WHY A BEEFED-UP BUNDESWEHR IS GOOD FOR THE BALTIC SEA REGION Elisabeth Braw 84 A BRUSQUE SWEDISH AWAKENING: ADOPTING SECURITY POLICY TO BALTIC SEA CHALLENGES Anna Wieslander 92 Beyond the Region and the Transatlantic Solidarity BALTIC SECURITY IN THE AGE OF TRUMP Glen Howard 104 CANADA’S ENHANCED FORWARD PRESENCE IN THE BALTICS: AN ENDURING COMMITMENT TO TRANSATLANTIC SECURITY Christian Leuprecht, Joel Sokolsky 118 NATO’S ENHANCED FORWARD PRESENCE: THE SOCIAL DIMENSION OF DETERRENCE. A PERSPECTIVE FROM CANADA Stéfanie von Hlatky 129 BRIDGING THE EAST-SOUTH DIVIDE: DUTCH PERSPECTIVES ON THE SECURITY OF THE BALTIC STATES Anne Bakker 138 The Baltic Sea Region amid the “New Normal” THE BALTIC STATES AND RUSSIA – ON DIPLOMATIC DIMENSIONS OF SECURITY Kadri Liik 148 THE BALTIC STATES IN RUSSIAN MILITARY STRATEGY James Sherr 158 THE EURO-ATLANTIC SECURITY FORMULA: THE IMPLICATIONS OF NATO-RUSSIA RELATIONS TO THE BALTIC SEA REGION Ivan Timofeev 168 THE NEW SECURITY SITUATION IN THE BALTIC REGION: BELARUS’S PERSPECTIVE Dzianis Melyantsou 176 Energy and Economic Security of the Baltic Sea Region THE EVOLVING AGENDA OF ENERGY SECURITY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: PERSISTENT DIVERGENCES IN THE PERCEPTION OF THREATS AND STATE-MARKET RELATIONSHIP Ramūnas Vilpišauskas 187 THE BALTIC STATES: FROM ENERGY ISLANDS TO AN ENERGY PENINSULA Kristīne Bērziņa 200 CHANGING VECTORS OF RUSSIA’S ENERGY EXPORTS AND THE BALTIC SEA REGION Mikhail Krutikhin 211 REVISITING THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF LATVIA AND OTHER BALTIC STATES Aldis Austers 218 Beyond Traditional Security: Strategic Communication and Cyber GROWING DEMOCRATIC VULNERABILITY IN THE NORDIC-BALTIC REGION: LEARNING LESSONS FROM THE GEOPOLITICALLY MOTIVATED RUSSIAN HACKING OF THE 2016 US ELECTION Mika Aaltola, Mariita Mattiisen 236 BAD NEWS FROM RIGA: THE FUTURE CHALLENGE OF DISINFORMATION Flemming Splidsboel Hansen 252 STRATEGIC CYBER THREATS TO THE BALTIC SEA REGION Patrik Maldre 261 MILITARISATION OF CYBERSPACE. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE BALTIC SEA REGION Piret Pernik 271 ABOUT THE AUTHORS 282 Introduction by the Editors: The Realities and Prospects of the Baltic Sea Region in the Transforming Security Landscape ealities R Māris Andžāns, Andris Sprūds w History has yet again attested that peace tends to be tranquillizing, whereas conflicts are an unavoidable and integral part of the relationship ting to the Ne among units of the international system. Almost two-and-half decades djus A of peaceful development on the shores of the Baltic Sea have led to the perception of post-historical and post-geopolitical stability among the Baltic nations and others in the region. However, since the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014, ghosts of the past have been re-invoked and each year has become formative for the regional security landscape ates and Poland: St and national strategic considerations in the region. The Latvian Institute of International
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