Food Security FSAU Food Security Analysis Unit Somalia & Nutrition Issued February 11, 2009 Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis

This special FSAU brief provides a summary of the key findings of the post Deyr ‘08 Assessment and Analysis, which are the results of fieldwork (December 21 – January 1), regional and national analysis workshops (January 2 - 23) and a Technical Verification and Partner Vetting Meetings (Nutrition January 22, and Food Security January 27). FEWS NET Somalia along with 31 partners, including regional authorities, UN and international agencies and local and international NGOs participated and supported in this post Deyr assessment and analysis process. FSAU presented these results in Nairobi at a Somalia Support Secretariat Special Meeting on January 30 and issued a Press release on February 5. The press release Climate and presentation are available on the FSAU Website.

Markets The findings of the FSAU, FEWSNET, and its partners’ postDeyr ‘08/09 seasonal KEY assessment confirm that there is anongoing and sustained Humanitarian Crisis in Nutrition FINDINGS Somalia, with 43% of the total population of the country, or around 3.2 million people, in need of emergency livelihood and life-saving assistance at least until June 2009. A failed state since the early 1990s, Somalia has had recurring humanitarian emergencies over the last Agriculture 18 years and is a country characterized by chronically high rates of acute malnutrition above emergency levels, and chronic levels of food insecurity among the rural population. The ongoing humanitarian crisis, however, is Livestock unique in that the crisis is widespread; not only are 1.2 million rural people in crisis, nearly two-thirds of those in crisis, or 2 million people, are urban poor and internally displaced populations (IDPs) (Maps 1 and Table 1).

Civil The key driving factor behind the current emergency is a macro-economic crisis, driven by a significantly devalued Insecurity Somali Shilling and hyperinflation of basic food and non-food items. This macro-economic crisis is exacerbated by months of increased conflict that have internally displaced more than 1 million people throughout the country. Emerging Furthermore, the Deyr ‘08/09 season rains (Oct.-Dec. ‘08) were below normal. This not only deepened an already severe ongoing drought and pastoral humanitarian emergency in the central regions, but has resulted in another Regional year of below normal annual cereal production and an overall annual cereal availability deficit of 120,000MT. Issues Nutrition surveys continue to highlight emergency levels of acute malnutrition throughout Somalia, due to a combination of a deteriorating food security situation, continuing displacement caused by insecurity, uncontrolled disease outbreaks and a fundamental lack of basic services. An estimated 200,000 children under 5 years of age in Somalia are acutely malnourished, of which 60,000 are severely malnourished and at an increased risk of death if they do not receive the appropriate specialist care. One in 6 children are acutely malnourished and 1 in 20 are severely malnourished. These extreme numbers will have a long-term devastating impact on the economic potential of the country.

Urban Food Security Crisis The growing urban food security crisis is widespread throughout Somalia, affecting roughly 22% of the total urban population, or 705,000 people. Of this total, 565,000 are in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), requiring emergency livelihood support and 140,000 are in Humanitarian Emergency, requiring both emergency livelihood and life-saving assistance. Additionally, there are an estimated 1 million new IDPs from the increased FSAU - Somalia conflict over the last two years, plus 275,000 protracted IDPs, who are equally affected by the food price crisis. Box 1230, Village Urban poor food access is severely constrained as people struggle to meet their basic food and non-food needs in Market, the face of record high food prices. Prices of imported rice and local cereals increased between 200% and 400% Nairobi, Kenya in the first 6 months of 2008. These price increases are significantly greater than global cereal price increases. Although prices declined from Oct. ’08, providing some benefits, they are still 350-825% above normal. The Tel: +254 20 374 5734 average cost of the urban poor minimum expenditure basket needed for survival has more than doubled in the Fax: +254 20 374 0598 last year, while the purchasing power of the poor is significantly below normal. Incomes have not kept pace with email: [email protected] rising food and non-food prices. www.fsausomali.org With income unable to match basic food and non-food price increases, the urban poor have had to seek additional financial support, in the form of cash gifts, loans and remittances, to meet their basic food needs. By Dec. ‘08, financial assistance was covering between 15-35% of the cost of a minimum survival basket of goods. Poor households have switched to purchasing cheaper local cereals, are skipping whole meals and borrowing food from neighbours. The percentage of urban poor households employing one or more of these distress coping mechanisms increased from 32% in Oct. ’07 to 59% in Oct. ’08. The increased inability to cope has resulted in reduced levels of dietary diversity, as 20-60% of the poor urban households were reported to have consumed less than four food groups per day in Oct. ’08. If the situation does not improve, urban populations will exhaust many of their coping options. Already urban poor households are deeply indebted and becoming more impoverished, thus increasing their vulnerability to shocks and further crises. FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009

Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Rural Crisis The rural crisis is more severe in that more than half or 680,000 people are in Humanitarian Emergency (HE), requiring emergency livelihood and life-saving interventions. Another 535,000 are in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), requiring emergency livelihood support. The largest concentrations of rural populations in crisis are in the south (66%) and central regions (29%). Most of the rural populations in crisis are agro-pastoralists (49%) and pastoralists (40%). The severity and depth of the rural crisis is greatest in the Galgadud, Mudug, Hiran and Middle Shabelle regions, where 50-70% of the total rural population is in crisis and where the number in HE exceeds the number in AFLC. The central regions are suffering from one of the worst droughts in recent history following successive seasons of rain failure. The impact of the drought is further exacerbated by the hyperinflation in food prices, increased conflict, and the presence of 200,000 IDPs in the region. The viability of pastoral livelihoods is threatened as livestock production is very poor and herds are significantly below baseline levels due to death and high off-take. Malnutrition rates, already above emergency levels, are continuing to deteriorate, and currently there are more than 10,000 children less than 5 years, who are severely malnourished.

Internally Displaced Populations in Crisis Increased civil insecurity is leading to distressed population movement both internally and cross-border. Since July ’08, it is estimated that the number of IDPs has increased from 870,000 to 1,020,000 (UNHCR, Protection Cluster, Jan, 9, ’09), and there are more than 275,000 protracted IDPs. Livelihood options are limited and food access has deteriorated for many IDPs, worsened by the ongoing macro-economic crisis. Social support systems are overburdened and there is limited access to basic services. Nutrition surveys confirm increased vulnerability and malnutrition rates above emergency levels.

Implications for Response  Humanitarian Access: Actions to increase humanitarian space and safety to ensure that the number of people in need, receive assistance

 Emergency Humanitarian Assistance to Save Lives • Targeted to areas and livelihood groups identified in HE • Targeted to areas and livelihood groups identified in Critical and Very Critical nutrition situation • Increased attention to areas where past/current needs exceed response • Scale-up in areas continuing to deteriorate (Galgadud, Mudug, M. Shabelle, Hiran, north Gedo) • IDP and Urban populations identified in HE and with high rates of malnutrition

 Emergency Livelihood Support • Prioritize areas and livelihood groups in AFLC and HE • Scale-up to enhance capacity of people to cope with ongoing crisis and prevent the total loss of livelihood assets • Poor urban populations unable to cope with food prices increases and declining purchasing power • Newly developing areas and livelihood groups in AFLC (Golis/Guban pastoral in north)

Table 1: Somalia Combined Rural, Urban and IDP Population Numbers, January - June 2009

Urban in Acute Rural in Acute Urban in Rural UNDP 2005 UNDP 2005 UNDP 2005 Total in AFLC Food and Food and Humanitarian Humanitarian Region Total Urban Rural and HE as % of Livelihood Crisis Livelihood Crisis Emergency Emergency Population Population Population Total population (AFLC) (AFLC) (HE) (HE) North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 10,000 20,000 0 0 10 Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 10,000 5,000 0 0 2 key findings/population figures Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 55,000 10,000 20,000 0 21 Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 20,000 10,000 5,000 0 13 Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 15,000 0 5,000 0 13 Bari 367,638 179,633 202,737 80,000 0 25,000 0 29 Nugaal 145,341 54,749 75,860 25,000 20,000 0 0 31 Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 215,000 65,000 55,000 0 14 Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 30,000 60,000 0 80,000 49 Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 15,000 45,000 10,000 165,000 71 Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 45,000 105,000 10,000 245,000 60 South Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698 20,000 65,000 5,000 135,000 68 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 95,831 419,070 30,000 65,000 0 165,000 50 Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 172,714 677,937 65,000 70,000 15,000 55,000 24 Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 25,000 80,000 0 45,000 48 Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 35,000 5,000 0 0 6 Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 30,000 60,000 0 35,000 38 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 54,739 184,138 25,000 10,000 0 0 15 Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 124,682 261,108 45,000 10,000 0 0 14 Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 275,000 365,000 20,000 435,000 31 Banadir 901,183 901,183 - 30,000 - 55,000 - 9 Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 565,000 535,000 140,000 680,000 26

Distribution of populations Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE Number affected % of Total population in crisis Assessed Urban population in AFLC and HE 705,000 9 22% Assessed Rural population in AFLC and HE 1,215,000 16 38% Estimated number of new IDPs (UNHCR, Protection Cluster, Jan. 9, '09) 1,020,000 14 32% Estimated number of protracted IDPs 275,000 4 9% Estimated Rural, Urban and IDP population in crisis 3,215,000 43 100%

2 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009

Map 1: Rural, Urban and IDP Populations, Projections January - June '09 integrated phase classification maps

3 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009

Map 2: Cumulative Rainfall (mm) Oct. 1-Dec. 31, '08 SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS Climate

The overall Deyr ‘08/09 season rainfall performance in terms of the amount, coverage and temporal and spatial distribution over time was mixed, but largely below normal. The Deyr ‘08/9 season rains started in early October in most regions, except in the Jubas, indicating a timely onset of the shorter rainy season (October to December). As the season advanced, however, the rains became inconsistent, localized and ended earlier than expected in November and were followed by dry conditions, which negatively affected proper crop development and pasture conditions, especially in the central regions and parts of the southern regions. In the drought-affected central regions, especially in Galgadud and parts of Mudug region, although satellite images show above normal rains (Map 2), Deyr '08/09 rainfall performance was largely poor, leading to poor vegetation conditions (Map 3). Most of the underground water reservoirs (berkads) remain dry, leading to abnormal pastoral migration (see Livestock Section). With the exception of Beletweyne district, rains were also poor in neighboring Hiran region. Map 3: Spot NDVI anomaly Dec. 30, '08 In the northwest and most of the northeast, normal to near normal rainfall was received (Figure 1). Rains were sufficient to improve pasture and water availability in most of the key grazing areas, particularly in the pastoral livelihood areas of Hawd, Nugal and Sool Plateau. However, in some areas in the north, rains were below normal, resulting in poor crop, pasture and browse conditions. These areas include most of the agro-pastoral areas, with the exception of Gebiley district, and the pastoral areas of Hawd of Hargeisa, and Golis-Guban,Togdheer, Galbeed and Sanag. climate In the south, although early rainfall improved crop germination in parts of Gedo, Bay, Bakool and the Shabelle regions, the early cessation of rains in early November negatively affected pasture regeneration, crop development, and grain-setting stages, which led to below normal crop harvest, particularly in the Shabelle and Juba regions, and parts of Gedo (see Crop Section).

As a result of poor rains and the strong dry spell during the peak of the season in November, vegetation conditions in many parts of the country are largely below normal in the lead up to the long dry Jilaal season (Map 3). In order to improve the quality and interpretation of climate information, data and analysis, FSAU and FEWS NET started to use Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data extracted using FAO land cover Source: NOAA/FEWS NET/USGS maps for pastoral and agricultural areas of the country. Figure 1: El Berde Vegetation Condition - NDVI Trend

This more specific land cover and localized analysis 0.4

of NDVI proved useful in field report and survey 0.35

verification, and generally provides a more accurate 0.3 analysis of vegetative conditions. For instance, in 0.25 pastoral areas of Elberde district (Bakool region) normal 0.2 satellite imagery shows below normal Deyr rains (Map 3), whereas the trend analysis of NDVI data and field 0.15 reports both indicate significant improvements due to 0.1 above normal Deyr rains (Figure 1). FSAU will continue 0. 05 to triangulate localized land cover and district NDVI 0 1 3 5 7 9 analysis with all crop and survey field data in order to 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 improve its analysis. 2007 2008 Long Term Average

4 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009

Civil insecurity

INSECURITY OUTCOMES: January, 2009 The civil insecurity situation in Somalia, especially Map 4: Somalia Insecurity Impact Outcomes, January '09 in the southern and central regions, is the worst 42°0'0"E 45°0'0"E 48°0'0"E 51°0'0"E NW/NE since the civil war and collapse of the government M: Limited N N

" I: Low " 0 0 ' % ' in 1991-92. This is due to the volatile political 0 T: Unchanged c 0 ° ° 2 2

1 DJIBOUTI D#: 36,330 1 situation and increased religious and ideological c% Alula

Kandala divisions. Most of the ongoing conflict is caused Zeylac Bossaso Lughaye Lasqoray by power struggles between political and religious Berbera Baki Erigabo Iskushuban Borama El Afwein Sheikh groups, while the rest is linked to resource-based Gebiley Hargeisa Gardo Ainabo conflict between clans and sub-clans. Overall, the N Owdweine Bandar Beyla N " Burao Hudun Taleh " 0 0 ' ' 0 0 ° ° impact of civil insecurity is greatest in the Shabelle 9 9 Buhodle Las Anod Garowe and Galgadud regions, followed by the remainder Hiran Eyl Bay/ Bakol M: Limited c% of the southern regions and Mudug, as well as M: Limited I: High Burtinle I: High T: Worsening the areas around Lasanod in the north (Maps 4). T: Worsening D# 50,700 Jariiban Galdogob % D#: 39,440 !Galkayo c The impact is greatest for urban communities and ! Indian Ocean N N " " 0 0 along internal and cross-border trade routes. There ' Adado ' 0 0

° Abudwaq Hobyo ° 6 Central 6 are reports of increased numbers of IDPs from Gedo !Dusa Mareb M: Widespread M: Limited ! I: High Mogadishu moving through Juba and Gedo regions I: High T: Worsening Haradheere El Barde El Bur T: Worsening Belet Weyne D# 200,770 to refugee camps in Kenya. D# 31,800 El Der Rab-Dhuure Hudur Dolo Bulo Burti Luuq Wajid Tieglow

In the northwest and northeast regions, which were Belet Hawa Jalalaqsi

N Baidoa N " !C Garba!harey " 0 0 ' Jowhar ' 0 0 relatively stable regions in the past, the security ° Qansah Dere Wanle Weyne ° 3 El Waq 3 situation deteriorated from late October ’08 due Buur Hakaba Balad ! Afgooye Bardera Dinsor Mogadishu LEGEND to multiple, simultaneous suicide car bombs in the Marka Sakow Shabelle ! New Insecurity Epicentre Kurtunwaarey Sablale M: Widespread main urban towns of Hargeisa and Bossasso. These A Insecurity Epicentre Buale Barawe

Y I: High % civil insecurity N Jilib T: Worsening c Piracy Prone Areas attacks had an immediate effect on urban areas, as Afmadow E D# 490,170 !C IDP Concentration Camps K " "

0 Civil Security Impact Category 0 businesses and the Somali Diaspora began to divert ' JamameJAMAAME ' 0 0 ° °

0 High 0 their financial investments from Somalia to the Kismayo Badhadhe Juba Medium Gulf and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This BADHADHE M: Limited led to a noticeable slowdown in construction and I: High Low T: Worsening None D# 21,600 other activities, which negatively impacted the poor Displacement (D) New # ± Displacements (January '09) urban households reliant on wage labor. Tensions 40 20 0 40 80 120 160 Kilometers 42°0'0"E 45°0'0"E 48°S0o'0u"rEce: FSAU Civil Insecurity Imp5a1ct° 0M'0a"tErix, S " January, 2009 0 ' 0 have increased between the host community and the ° 3 Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsausomali.org Source: FSAU, January 2009 P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-3745734 fax:254-20-3740598 large, newly arrived migrant communities from the southern FSAU is managed by FAO, funded by EC, the Government of Norway and USAID. FSAU Partners are FEWS NET, WFP, FAO, UNOCHA, SCF-UK, UNIICEF, CARE, UNDP FigureThe boundaries a nd2: name s oUNn these map s dStaffo not imply official ePresencendorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. and central regions, weakening urban-rural linkages and The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986. trade integrity between the north and south.

Direct and Indirect Impact The escalation in armed conflict and insecurity has led to Jan. '08 increased human rights abuses, killings, criminality, and Nov. '08 population displacement. The number of IDPs has increased by 18% in the last six months from 870,000 to more than 1 million people, due mostly to the volatile situation in Mogadishu town (UNHCR, Protection Cluster, Jan. 9, '09).

Inhabitants who remain in the city are living in a state of SOUTH CENTRAL PUNTLAND SOMALILAND fear, following the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops. Many districts within the city are deserted as a result of past indiscriminate shelling; many houses and business assets have either been looted or destroyed.

Throughout much of the southern and central regions, heightened insecurity continues to disrupt trade, economic activities, transportation networks and humanitarian access. In the Galgadud and Mudug regions, resource-based conflict has increased, restricting pastoral mobility, which has been an important coping option for pastoralists during the ongoing drought. Renewed fighting in late December ’08, in the main towns of Dhusamareb, Guri-cel and Gelinsor, led many people to flee urban centers to rural areas, which already lack adequate water, shelter and food due to the ongoing rural Humanitarian Emergency. Fighting also significantly reduced the social support link between the rural and urban areas.

This already dire situation is worsened by the increasingly limited humanitarian interventions in the region since August due to increased civil insecurity, as threats and attacks targeting humanitarian workers significantly restricted humanitarian space in 2008. Since early 2008, over 183 security incidents, involving humanitarian aid workers or assets were reported. Thirty-four aid workers were killed; 26 aid workers kidnapped; and 16 are still in captivity. As a result, the presence of international humanitarian staff significantly reduced in 2008 and led to reductions or postponements in some areas in the delivery of aid (Figure 2). 5 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009

Deyr ’08/09 Cereal Crop Production

Cereal Production Deyr ‘08/09 cereal production in southern Somalia is estimated at 54,000 MT (of which 58% is sorghum, 38% maize and 4% rice), which is 54% lower than the Post-War Average (PWA 1995-2007). The Deyr ‘08/09 cereal production is the third lowest Deyr cereal production in the last 14 years (Table 2 and Figure 3). Poor rainfall in key cereal growing areas, poor irrigation infrastructure systems and seasonal overlap of off-season and Deyr season crops have precipitated the decline in cereal production. The poor cereal production is also attributed to high input costs, poor tillage and pest damage.

Table 2: Deyr '08/09 Cereal Production Estimates in Southern Somalia

Deyr ‘08/09 Cereal Production Estimates in Southern Somalia: Margin of Error +/- 15% Deyr 2008 as % of Deyr 2008 as % of Deyr ’08/09 Production in MT Deyr 2008 as % of Regions Deyr PWA 5 year average Deyr 2007 Maize Sorghum Total Cereal (1995-2007) (2003-2007) Bakol 100 2,700 2,800 98% 153% 119% Bay 500 21,500 22,000 56% 70% 60% Gedo 1,100 1,100 2,200 15% 37% 26% Hiran 1,500 3,000 4,500 188% 67% 89% Juba Dhexe (Middle) 100 1,200 1,300 18% 30% 30% Juba Hoose (Lower) 300 0 300 54% 20% 45% Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 4,300 1,200 5,500 68% 46% 64% Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 12,300 300 12,600 67% 36% 45% Deyr 2008 Total 20,200 31,000 51,200 54% 52% 54%

The bulk of the Deyr season cereal harvest is from the Figure 3: Trends in Deyr Cereal Production (1995-2008) - Bay and Shabelle regions (43% and 36% of the total Southern Regions Deyr cereal production, respectively). Deyr ‘08/09 sea- 200,000 son sorghum production in Bay region performed well, 180,000 Maize Sorghum P W A 5 year Avrg contributing 71% to the total Deyr sorghum production. 160,000 However, sorghum production failed in most other parts 140,000 of southern Somalia due to poor rains. Deyr ‘08/09 maize 120,000 100,000 MT

agriculture production in southern Somalia, which comes mainly from the riverine livelihoods, is significantly lower than 80,000 the long-term average (1995-2007), as well as the 5-year 60,000 average (2003-2007). The Deyr maize production is esti- 40,000 mated at 20,000MT, which is 50% of the Deyr PWA, but 20,000 similar to Deyr ‘07/08 maize production (22,000MT). 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year In the northwest, the Gu/Karan ‘08 cereal production is estimated at 17,500 MT, which is 94% of the PWA. How- ever, Gabiley district alone contributed more than 80% of the total cereal production due to above normal rains, while other key cropping areas of Hargeisa, Borama, and Odweyne districts experienced rain failure, which resulted in cereal crop failure.

Off-Season Cereal Production Unusual Hagaa rains in July and August ’08 and seasonal floods in the Lower Shabelle and Juba regions (Jamame and Jilib) not only provided opportunities for fresh water fishing, but also resulted in two cycles of off-season crop production in some areas. FSAU and its partners Good off-season maize crop, Ceel Wareegaw, Merka, conducted an off-season harvest assessment from Oct. Lower Shabelle, Oct. ‘08 8-21,’08 and estimated the off-season cereal production to be 20,150MT, of which 92% is from Lower Shabelle and 8% from the Jubas. This is equivalent to 39% of Deyr ‘08/09 actual cereal production. In addition, both natural and man-made floods that occurred in Nov. ‘08 in the Juba regions also provided opportunities for off-season flood recessional crop production. The Juba regions are therefore expected to benefit from another off-season maize production from March to early April ‘09, which could contribute an additional 7,500MT.

6 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009

Annual Cereal Production Figure 4: Trends in Annual Cereal Production (1995 - 2008) - Southern Regions Overall annual cereal production in southern Somalia 450,000 (Gu ’08 and Deyr ‘08/09) is estimated at 134,000MT, 400,000 which is 55% of PWA and the second lowest cereal Deyr Gu Overall PWA 5 year Avrg 350,000 production in 14 years (Figure 4). If Deyr ‘08/09 rice production and off-season cereal production is included, 300,000 estimated together at 32,000MT, the total annual cereal 250,000 MT production in the south is 166,000MT. Overall, local 200,000 cereal availability is low, following two consecutive 150,000 years of below normal cereal production. 100,000

50,000

Local Cereal Prices 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Prices of locally produced cereals are at all time highs Year across the country (Figure 5). Combined factors, includ- ing consecutive seasons of poor cereal crop produc- Figure 5: Regional Trends in Cereal Prices (SoSh) 51,000 16,000 tion, the devaluation of the SoSh, hyperinflation, and 48,000 45,000 Juba Valley (Maize White) 14,000 increased demand for local cereals, have all contributed 42,000 Shabelle Valley (Maize White) 39,000 12,000 significantly to cereal price increases. Although still 36,000 Northeast (Imported rice) Sorghum Belt (Sorghum Red) significantly above normal price levels, both maize and 33,000 !#%&'(('$)*%+,'$-./012$ 10,000 )(%!!!"!#30,000 Central )'%!!!"!# 0CD@EAF#+GBHIJB# 27,000 $!!KL$!!M# sorghum prices decreased since July, by 30% and 55%, )&%!!!"!# Northwest ( Imported rice-SLSH)$!!$# 8,000 24,000 $!!K# )$%!!!"!# $!!&# )!%!!!"!#21,000 respectively. In December 2008, the highest maize and $!!N# 6,000

!"!#$ (%!!!"!#18,000 $!!'#

$!!M# Price per Kg (SLSH) '%!!!"!#Price per Kg (SoSH) 15,000 sorghum prices were recorded in the Jubas (17,000/kg $!!(# &%!!!"!#12,000 4,000 in Dobley) Beletweyn, Luq and Hudur (10,000/kg). $%!!!"!# 9,000 !"!# 2,000

6,000 :# 9# 3# +,# ;# 46# *45# 7.2# -./# * *4,# < . +21# 8 9 + 0 + , 8 Prices, however, are likely to increase over the coming 3,000 0+1# +=>?#:>@AB# months due to poor performance of Deyr ‘08/09 season, 0 0 coupled with overall low cereal availability and increas- Month ing demand for local cereals. agriculture

In farming communities in the Juba and Shabelle regions, agricultural activities, related to off-season crop planting in late Sept.-Nov. ‘08, regular Deyr ‘08/09 production and the projected off-season in late March, created opportunity for agricultural employment and other income-earning opportunities for poor households. Labor opportunities in the Shabelle, Juba, Hiran (Beletweyn), Bay and Bakool regions improved with the increased labour demand for weeding, irrigating, guarding and harvesting as well as the transportation of farm produce. Terms of trade (TOT) between labor and cereals have increased by 85%-130% since July ‘08 in the southern regions. The highest TOT between cereal and labor were recorded in the Juba and Hiran (Beletweyn) regions (11kg/daily labor wage and 10kg/daily labor rate, respectively), which is significantly above or near the five-year average. The daily labor wage rates in these regions increased in December, while local cereal prices in the last six months of 2008 showed a declining trend (maize 11,000 SoSh and sorghum 9,500 SoSh in Dec. ‘08). Although the TOT between labor and cereals significantly improved during the last six months of 2008, it was still lower than the long-term average due to sustained inflation.

Cereal Balance Sheet (CBS) The June 2008-May 2009 Annual Cereal Balance Sheet released in August is updated with current Deyr ‘08/09 cereal production estimates, Gu/Karan crop harvest estimates for the northwest, actual commercial imports (June – Dec. 2008), as well as updated information on food aid distribution, stocks and pipeline. Overall, the estimated cereal balance sheet indicates that, without food aid, there Figure 6: Trends in Commercial Cereal Imports could be a significant cereal deficit of between 75,000 (2005 - 2008) and 170,000MT this year. This estimated deficit is due to 60,000 the combined impact of below normal domestic cereal 50,000 3 yr average 2008 production and lower levels of cereal imports. 40,000 Commercial cereal import figures indicate a fluctuating trend over the last 12 months. Total cereal imports for 30,000 2008, at 328,950MT, are 23% lower than the three- year average (2005-2007). This is mainly a result of 20,000 Cereal Imports (Cereal Equivalents) the devaluation of the Somali Shilling and increased 10,000 importation costs due to sea piracy, which has raised shipping costs and taxation (Figure 6). 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

7 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009 Somalia: Rangeland Condition and Livestock Migration: January 2009 Map 5: Somalia, Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Livestock 42°0'0"E 45°0'0"E 48°0'0"E 51°0'0"E January 2009 N N " "

Rangeland and Water Conditions 0 0 ' Gulf of Aden ' !ALULA 0 0 ° DJIBOUTI ° 2 2 Rangeland conditions are varied, following the 1 1 !KANDALA ZEYLAC ! !.BOSSASO LASQORAY mixed outcome of the Deyr ‘08/09 seasonal rains, !

LUGHAYE ! !.ERIGABO as shown in Map 5. Rangeland conditions in the BERBERA !

! ! AWDAL BARI SHEIKH drought-affected areas of Galgadud, Mudug and !. ! SAN! AG W. GALBEED EL AFWEIN ! BURAO GARDO !. !. ! !BANDAR BEYLA OWDWEINE Hiran regions and the rain-deficit areas of Hawd ! N HU!DUN ! N " " 0 0 ' !AINABA ' 0 livelihood zone of Sool, Nugal and Mudug regions 0 ° SOOL ° 9 TOGDHEER 9 LAS ANOD GAROWE and Addun of Mudug, further deteriorated after !. !. !BUHODLE NUGAL EYL another poor seasonal rainfall. !

BURTIN! LE

!JARIBAN Other areas also adversely affected by the poor Deyr ! !. ‘08/09 rains include Middle Shabelle, Middle Juba, ETHIOPIA GALKAYO ! N !ADADO N " " 0 0 ' MUDUG ' 0 0 ° some areas in Lower Juba, El-Wak district of Gedo, ° 6 6 !. GALGADUD HOBYO the western Sool plateau of Sanaag, Upper Hawd of ! Indian Ocean

EL BARDE ! BELET WEYNE Togdheer, and Golis/Guban of the northwest. Most !. EL BUR ! !HARADHERE

Rab DhuureBAKOOL ! of the pastoral households in these areas have already DOLO ! HUDUR !. TIEGLO BELET XAWA ! ! HIIRAN ! !EL DER LUUQ !WAJID ADAN YABAL started to migrate to the neighboring regions, as well ! !

JALALAQSI !. ! N N " as to the Ogaden region of Ethiopia. Poor rainfall !. " 0 Mahaday Weyn 0 ' ! ' 0 ! M. SHABELLE 0 EL WAQ ! JOWHAR ° ! QANSAH DERE !. !ADALE ° 3 WANLA WEYN 3 during the Gu ’07, Deyr ’07/08 and Gu ‘08 seasons, GEDO ! DINSOR BARDERA ! BAY BALAD LEGEND ! ! as well as this past Deyr ‘08/09 caused all berkads, ! "/BANADIR Water Availability

A QORYOLEY ! !. Below Normal Water ! ! water catchments, and most shallow wells within the N Y M. JUBA L. SHABELLE ! K E !.BU'AALE Normal Water BRAVA pastoral areas to dry up. The rangeland of Golis of ! Pasture Availability !Hagar Below Normal Pasture JILIB W. Galbeed, Awdal, South Hawd of Togdheer, Bari, L.JUB! A ! Normal Pasture " JAMAME " 0 ! 0 ' ' 0 eastern Nugal, Bay, Bakool and localized areas of 0 ° Livestock Migration ° 0 KISMAAYO 0 Juba and Gedo regions benefited from normal to !. Normal Opportunistic Migration

near normal Deyr ’08/09 rainfall, as well as from !BADHADHE Abnorrmal Migration Hays rainfall in the Golis of the northern regions, ± Abnormal Migration Indicators 1. Timing which improved the water volume of streams and 50 25 0 50 100 150 200 Kilometers 2. Distance

shallow wells and subsequently improved rangeland 42°0'0"E 45°0'0"E 48°0'0"E 51°0'0"E S 3. Magnitude " 0 ' 0 conditions. ° 3 Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsausomali.org Source: FSAU, Jan. 2009 P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-3745734 fax:254-20-3740598 FSAU is managed by FAO. The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Livestock Migration The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986. livestock Abnormal livestock migration, although reduced when compared to the last six months, is still ongoing in many parts of the country (Map 5). Normal migration patterns are seen in W. Galbeed, Awdal, Sool, Bari, parts of Juba, Bay, Bakool and Lower Shabelle regions. In Galgadud, some livestock out-migrated to the Ogaden region of Ethiopia, as well as to Hiran and Middle Shabelle. However, because of localized rains, which slightly improved pasture and water levels of shallow wells, Addun and Coastal herds remained within the region (Addun areas in between Elbur and Dhusamareb towns). Livestock of western Sool and Golis/Guban livelihood zones of the Sanaag region out-migrated to central Nugal valley, the lower Hawd of Togdheer and Bari regions, while livestock from Middle Shabelle and Wanlaweyn district of Lower Shabelle migrated to parts of southern Lower Shabelle. Dawa livestock migrated to the riverine areas of Gedo region and Southern Inland pastoralists migrated to the Jubas. In Juba, cattle migrated to the Juba riverine and Hola forest of Badade district.

Livestock Body Conditions and Herd Growth Livestock body conditions are poor due to the overall deterioration of pasture and water conditions in the drought-stricken regions of Galgadud, Mudug, Hiran and Middle Shabelle and the rain-deficit areas of northern Mudug, southern Nugal, and western Sanaag. In contrast, livestock body conditions are average to good in Awdal, W. Galbeed, Bari, Shabelle, Bay, Gedo and Juba regions due to overall improvement of pasture and water conditions. Deyr ‘08/09 season calving/ kidding rates for camels, cattle and sheep/goats are low to none in the drought-affected regions of Galgadud, Mudug, Hiran, Bakool and Middle Shabelle, but low to medium in the rain deficit areas of Mudug, Sool and Sanaag. In contrast, in Juba, Bay and Lower Shabelle regions, camel, cattle and sheep/goats calving/kidding rates are medium to high with medium conception rates. In Bari, Sool, Togdheer, Awdal and W. Galbeed regions, camels are not calving, but conception rates are medium to high. Sheep/goats kidding rates, however, are medium with medium to high conception rates.

The FSAU Deyr ‘08/09 pastoral herd dynamics model indicates a decreasing trend in herd sizes when compared to the end of Gu ‘08 season (June’08). For example, in the drought-affected areas of Galgadud, Mudug, Hiran, Middle Shabelle and Bakool, there is a decreasing trend when compared to June ‘08 herd sizes, (i.e. camel declined by 20%-35%; cattle declined by 18%-20%; and sheep/goats declined by 22%-31%), which is attributed to high death rates, as well as to the additional off-take needed to cover increasing water trucking costs and record high food prices. Herd sizes in these areas are well below baseline levels. Cattle have been the worst affected by the drought and have declined by 47%-53%, when compared to baseline levels.

8 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009

Similarly, the rain deficit areas of Hawd and Addun of Mudug, Figure 7: Regional Trends in Local Quality Cattle Prices Golis/Guban pastoral of northwest, Sool of Sanaag and (SoSh/SlSh) Dawa pastoral of Gedo livelihood zones are also showing 8,000,000 2,500,000 Sorghum Belt 7,000,000 a decreasing trend, although they are at borderline baseline Shabelle Valley 2,000,000 levels. The exception is Sool plateau, where camel herd sizes 6,000,000 Juba Valley NorthEast 5,000,000 have not returned to original baseline levels since 2004; Central 1,500,000 however, indications are that this trend reflects a change in 4,000,000 NorthWest -SLSH

1,000,000 pastoral baseline holdings. With the exception of the Sool 3,000,000 plateau, camel populations are above baseline levels in all 2,000,000 Price per Head of Cattle (SOSH) 500,000 Price per Head of Cattle (SLSH) pastoral livelihoods in most of the northwest and northeast 1,000,000 regions, as well as in the Southern Inland Pastoral areas of 0 0 the Juba and Gedo regions. Generally, there are no outbreaks of major livestock diseases. However, cases of CCPP are Month reported in the drought-stricken regions. Common diseases Figure 8: Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices (i.e. tick born disease and endoparasites) are widely reported 1,400,000 400,000 in most of the regions. Sorghum Belt 1,200,000 Shabelle Valley 350,000

Juba Valley 300,000 1,000,000 Livestock Prices and Pastoral Purchasing Power NorthEast Central 250,000 Generally, prices of all livestock species throughout Somalia 800,000 NorthWest - SLSH have steadily increased since Jan. ’07 and are higher than the 200,000 600,000 5-year average, primarily in response to general inflationary 150,000 400,000 pressure, the devaluation of the Somali Shilling (SoSh), and 100,000 Price per Head of Goat (SLSH) Price per Head of Goat (SOSH) high demand because of Hajj and Ramadan (Figure 7 and 200,000 50,000

8). Livestock prices declined slightly in some areas in the 0 0 last six months.

Month Livestock prices are expected to remain high in response to the

SoSh devaluation and to general inflationary trends, as well as to increased demand from both local and external markets. livestock However, drought-affected and rain-deficit areas of Galgadud, Mudug, Hiran, and Middle Shabelle will not benefit from these increases due to the limited number of marketable animals in those areas.There was a slight decline in export quality goat prices in the central, northeast and northwest regions, when compared to November ’08; however, prices remain at an all time high, which is attributed mainly to the devaluation of the SoSh and the increase in market demand.

Due to the significant increases in livestock prices and the dramatic decline of cereal prices, pastoralist purchasing power, as measured by the terms of trade (TOT) between livestock and cereal, has considerably increased in all regions, but is still below normal levels of exchange (Figure 9). Average TOT for export quality goat to rice in the central, northwest and northeast regions are 100%, 28% and 74% higher when compared to July ’08, respectively. Terms of trade, however, are 11%, 19% and 17% lower than the same month of last year, respectively. This is due to the significant price increases in Dec. ’08 of imported rice in the central, northeast and northwest regions (138%, 151% and 49%, when compared to the same period of last year, respectively) and a similar significant increase in local cereal prices in the central and northeast regions (359% and 340%), when compared to the December 5-year average.

Livestock Exports In the south, cross border cattle trade between Somalia and Kenya continued steadily, due to a strong demand from Kenya. Similarly, in the central and northern regions, overall livestock export volumes for all species were comparable to 5-year average export levels due to increased demand during the Hajj and Ramadan periods and increased livestock prices, which resulted in increased income for pastoralists. However, households of the drought-affected regions of Galgadud and Mudug benefited the least because of limited availability of export quality goats. Livestock exports from Jan. to Dec. ‘08 through Berbera Figure 9: Regional Trends in Terms of Trade, Cereal to and Bossaso ports reached 2,668,545 heads, of which 92% were Local Quality Goat 400 sheep/goats. This is only 1% lower than the Jan.-Dec. ‘03-07 Sorghum Belt 350 Shabelle Valley average (2,699,379 heads). Juba Valley 300 NorthEast NorthWest The five abattoirs of the country have fully resumed operating. 250 Central Beletweyn abattoir was the last abattoir to resume operations, 200

150 which started mid-November ’08. In 2008, a total of 492,497 Kg Cereal per Goat (Local Quality) carcasses were exported to the Gulf countries. Burao and 100

Galkayo abattoirs exported a total of 151,471 and 77,992 50 carcasses, respectively, which is 115% and 147% higher than 0 2007 exports (70,318 and 31,639 heads), while the Mogadishu and Beletweyn abattoirs exported 252,979 and 10,055 carcass Month heads, respectively. 9 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009

Markets Figure 10: Trends in Exchange Rates - SOSH and SLSH to USD ar

Devaluation of the Somali Shilling 40,000 12,000 The Somali Shilling (SoSh) has depreciated significantly 35,000 Baidoa - SOSH Bossaso - SOSH 10,000 since early 2007, by 57% in 2007, and by a further 45% 30,000 Galkayo - SOSH Mogadishu - SOSH 8,000 25,000 in 2008 (Figure 10). This dramatic devaluation is mainly Hargesia - SLSH

attributed to the uncontrolled and excessive printing of 20,000 6,000 SlSh per US Dollar SoSh per US Dollar 15,000 shilling notes starting in early 2007, combined with a 4,000 loss of confidence in the local currency. However, since 10,000 2,000 Oct. ’08 the currency has begun to appreciate. A FSAU/ 5,000 FEWSNET Somalia Money Vendor Survey, conducted 0 0 in the post Deyr ‘08/09 assessment, concluded that this appreciation is due to the increased circulation of US Month dollars from increased livestock export sales and piracy, Figure 11: Shabelle Valley Trend in Imported Commodity combined with the cessation of money printing. Although Prices Compared to Exchange Rate the currency appreciated in the last few months, it is still at 70,000

60,000 record levels of devaluation. In contrast, the Somaliland PETROL 1 Litre

SUGAR 1 Kg Shilling remained relatively stable and is at the same level 50,000 VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre

of exchange as in 2005. RED RICE 1 Kg 40,000 SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR

30,000 Commercial Import Commodity Prices Price per Unit (SoSh)

Imported commodity prices remain at record high levels, 20,000 even with large decreases since Oct. ’08 (Figure 11). Much 10,000 of the hyperinflation has been driven by the devaluation of the SoSh, which made it costly to purchase imports. 0 Hyperinflation is only partly attributed to rising global prices. Since 2007, rice price increases in Somalia have Month generally correlated with international trends; however, FigureFSAU and FEWSNET12: Comparison Somalia Market Data of Update Mogadishu January 2009 and International 1 price increases in Somalia have not only exceeded Rice Prices from Jan. '07 to Dec. '08 international increases, but the relative price differential has significantly increased over the last six months (Figure

12). When comparing international rice prices with International Mogadishu retail rice prices, the average price differential Mogadishu markets was .26 kg/USD between Jan. ’07 and March ’08. This increased to an average price differential of .61 kg/USD between June ’08 and Dec. ’08.

The compounding macro-economic factors of a weakened SoSh, increased importation and shipping costs due to piracy, below normal domestic cereal supplies and an overall cereal supply deficit are not only continuing to keep food prices high in Somalia, but are also widening

the price differential between food prices in Somalia and FSAU and FEWSNET Somalia Market Data Update January 2009 1 global food prices. Figure 13: Regional CPI Trends 400

Cost of Living Increases 350 Central North Hyperinflation is making it difficult for households, 300 North(SlSh) South especially the poor, to meet their basic survival needs in 250

terms of food and non-food items. To measure and monitor 200 inflation as it relates to the urban poor, FSAU developed 150 an urban poor minimum expenditure basket (MEB) and 100 consumer price index (CPI).1 50

0 The urban poor CPI indicates significant increases in the CPI (March 2007) CPI (March 2008) CPI (June 2008) CPI (October CPI (December cost of the minimum expenditure basket (CMB) over the 2008) 2008) last 18 months (Figure 13). By March ’08 the average CPI CMB, or CPI, was 160-201% of the cost in Mar. ‘07, and by October ’08 it was between 233-338%. This doubling and tripling of the average CMB is largely attributed to increased sorghum prices, as cereal constitutes the largest proportion (50-60%) of the urban poor MEB. The highest rates of increase in the CPI, 338% and 280%, occurred in the central and southern regions.

1 See FSAU Technical Series Report: Post Deyr ‘08/09 Analyasis, Feburary 28, 2009 for full description of the MEB and CPI.

10 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009

Nutrition Situation Overview

SOMALIA - ESTIMATED NUTRITION SITUATION JANUARY 2009 Map 6: Somalia Estimated Nutrition Situation Jan. '09 N N

An integrated analysis of the nutrition information " " 0 0 ' CALUULA ' " 0 43°0'0"E 46°0'0"E 49°0'0"E 0 ° ° 2 2 collected from July to December 2008 indicates 1 Alula 1 QA NDALA " ZEY LAC " !( LAASQORAY a varied nutrition situation throughout the " Gulf of Aden Kandala Zeylac Bosaso DJIBOUTI LUGHAYE " country, with many parts continuing to report Lughaye BERB ERA Erigavo Badhan Awdal " Iskushuban !( Berbera BAKI Baki ISK USHUBA N Borama " " emergency levels of acute malnutrition (Map 6). El Afwein Sanag Bari SHEIKH CEEL AFWE YN Woq. Galbeed " Sheikh " GE BILEY A combination of a deteriorating food security "Gabiley Bender Beila Harge!isa QA RDHO BANDARBEYLA ! " " OWDWEYNE !( " Gardo Odweine Burco Taleh XUDUN TALEEX N Caynaba " " N

situation in parts of the country, continuing " "

0 CAYNABO Xudun 0 ' Togdheer ' " 0 0 ° ° displacement caused by insecurity, uncontrolled 9 Sool 9 Buhodle !(Garowe BUUHOODLE Lasanod disease outbreaks and a fundamental lack of basic " EYL Nugal " Eyl Burtinle BURTINLE services, has increased the population’s nutritional " District Capital " Coastline JARIIBAN International Boundary " vulnerability and reduced resilience to cope with GA LDOGOB Jariban " ETHIOPIA Goldogob Regional Boundary Galkayo the ongoing shocks. District Boundary !( River

CABUDWAA Q "

N CADAADO N " " Adado " 0 0

' Mudug ' Abudwaq Hobyo 0 0 ° ° A total of 17 representative nutrition assessments 6 6

Dusa Mareb HOBYO " were conducted by FSAU and partners from Indian Ocean Galgadud CEEL BARDE 2 " El Bur Haradhere CEEL BUUR El Barde Belet Weyne " XARA RDHEERE October to December 2008 (Figure 14 ). From "

Rab Dhuure Bakol "

DOOLOW Rab-Dhuure Hiran these assessments, eight reported global acute " Hudur TAY EEGLOW " El Der Dolo BULO BURTO CEEL DHEER LEGEND LUUQ WA AJID " " BELET XAA WO " " ADAN YABAAL " Tieglo " malnutrition (GAM) rates below the emergency Luuq Wajid Bulo Burti Nutrition Situation Aden Yabal JALALAQSI Belet Hawa " Jalalaqsi Acceptable Garbahare Baidoa Adale N N threshold of 15%, three reported rates between " !( " 0 0 ' Alert ' QA NSAX DHEE RE 0 Gedo M. Shabelle 0 " BUUR HA KABA CEEL WA Q ° ° " " CADALE Qansah Dere Jowhar " 3 Wanle Weyne 3 El Waq WA NLA WEY N 15-19.9%, with the remaining six reporting rates " Insufficient data but likely Bay Balad DIINSOOR " BAARDHEERE Bur Hakaba BALCAD to be Alert " " Afgoye AFGOOYE !" Serious >20%. The rates of severe acute malnutrition Bardera Dinsor !Ba!(nadir L. Shabelle Insufficient data but likely QORYOOLEY Kurtun Warrey "Qoryoley Sakow SAAKOW " KURTUNWA AREY ! to be Serious (SAM) were also unacceptably high with six " Marka M. Juba Critical SABLA ALE Sablale "

Buale BARA AWE Insufficient data but likely surveys reporting above 4%, six between 2-4% " Brava to be Critical

Jilib Very Critical and the remainder below 2%. However, crude and Afmadow AFM ADOW JILIB " " Projected Trend (January - July '09) Insufficient data but likely to be Very Critical " Potential to Improve " JAMAAM E 0 "Jamame 0

under five-year mortality rates remained below ' '

0 L. Juba Uncertain IDP Phase 0 ° ° 0 0 Potential to Deteriorate Serious nutrition the respective emergency thresholds of 2 and 4 Kismayo !( Critical deaths per 10,000 population per day for all the Badhadhe Very Critical BADHAADHE " The Nutrition Situation is analysed using a range of nutrition ± indicators from direct and indirect sources from July to Dec '08: assessments, but elevated levels were reported nutritional surveys (Oct-Dec '08), health facility data, rapid MUAC assesments, selective feeding centre data, health reports 40 20 0 40 80 120 160 43°0'0"E 46°0'0"E and others 49°0'0"E Kilometers Datum: WGS84, Data Source: FSAU, 2006 in the Golis/Guban assessment in the northwest Admin. layers: UNDP, 1998

Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsausomali.org regions, Bossasso IDPs, Hawd livelihood, P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-3745734 fax:254-20-3740598 FSAU is managed by FAO. The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Shabelle riverine and Juba region surveys. Figure 14: SomaliaThe regional & DEstimatedistrict boundaries reflect those endorsed by th e NutritionGovernment of the Republic of Somalia in 19Situation,86. Jan. '09

The rural areas of most concern illustrated in red in the map are the Golis/ Guban livelihood in the northwest regions, Hawd Livelihood in the Central regions bordering Ethiopia, Bakool region and Gedo regions. For IDPs, their nutritional situation is also of great concern, with the highest rates of acute and severe malnutrition in 2008 reported in Bossasso IDPs in December. Other protracted IDP populations in Galkayo, Garowe, Hargeisa, Berbera and Burao are also facing chronically high levels of acute malnutrition, undoubtedly exacerbated by the urban food price crisis, given their reliance on purchase for food access.

Based on the integrated analysis conducted, nutrition survey results and the application of median rates, an estimated 200,000 children under 5 years of age are thought to be acutely malnourished, of which 60,000 are estimated to be severely malnourished and at increased risk of mortality if they do not receive appropriate treatment2. This means 1 in 6 children in Somalia is acutely malnourished and 1 in 20 is severely malnourished. These proportions remain similar to the Gu ’08, but are elevated from the Deyr ’07/08 numbers. Due to population density, a third of these children are in the Shabelle regions, followed by the Galgadud, Mudug and Bay regions. Of greatest concern is the deteriorating nutritional situation in the Galgadud and Mudug regions, where there are an estimated 10,000 children in need of immediate therapeutic care, yet ongoing insecurity prevents them from accessing appropriate care.

A summary of the key findings are presented in the regional sections below, with detailed analysis by region and livelihood provided in the FSAU Technical Series Report: Nutrition Update, Oct.-Dec. '08.

2 Nutrition survey results reported using NCHS values for GAM and SAM.

11 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009

INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS

Map 8: UrbanS Populations,OMALIA INTEGRATE ProjectionsD FOOD SECURITY Jan. PHASE - C JuneLASSIF IC'09ATION URBAN Urban, Small Towns and IDP Populations: January - June '09 (Excludes Rural Populations) Defining Attributes of Crisis -100% Areas in P41ha°0s'e0 3"E, 4 or 5 44°0'0"E Urban:140,00407°0'0"E 50°0'0"E e IDP:

d 24,000 PN opulation in Phase (Includes High Risk) N u " " t i 0 0 n

For the first time in over 15 years, a significant number ' i, ii, iii ' g 0-100,000 101,000-500,000 0 0 a >500,000 ° °

M d, e, g, h -100%

2 Gulf of Aden 2

1 A Calula 1

h Percent of urban population of people in crisis in Somalia are the urban poor, who t

p Low e in respective phase BOSSASO D * * -0% )!. ¸ Qandala are continuing to struggle and cope with hyperinflation -0% # Las Qoray/ o Criteria for Social Targeting Zeylac Bossaaso h Badhan

W i Livelihood system Lughaye ERIGABO !. of food prices. With no significant change in the food ii Wealth group AWDAL #¸ Gender Iskushuban iii Baki #) ¹Berbera Key Immediate Causes Borama SANAG security situation since Gu ’08, roughly 25% of Somalia’s a Drought BORAMA Ceel Afweyne BARI b Floods ¹#!. W. GALBEED Sheikh Ceerigaabo c Tsunami Gebiley HARGEYSA BURAO urban population, or 705,000 people, remain in need of d Civil Insecurity !. y ) )!. h e Market Disruptions ¸ ) Qardho

W # Hargeysa f Disease Outbreaks Owdweyne Xudun Bandar Beyla N Caynabo Talex N g" Population Influx " humanitarian assistance (Map 8). Of this total, 565,000 0 TOGDHEER 0 ' Inflation ' h0 SOOL 0

° Burco ° i Water Shortages 9 9 people are in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis Key Underlying Causes La¸as Caanood Garowe A Post State Conflict !.# Buuhoodle LAS ANOD !.GAROWE B Environmental Degradation

y C Social Marginalization c ETHIOPIA (AFLC), requiring emergency livelihood support, while n e Recurrence of Crisis in Past 10 yrs Eyl u -100% q NUGAL e

r -100%

F Urban: Low(1-2yrs), Moderate(3-4), High (>= 5) Urban: Burtinle 130,000

e 25,000

another 140,000 are in Humanitarian Emergency (HE), c IDP: 12,000 n IDP: 50,000

e Confidence Level of Analysis d

i i, ii, iii f i, ii, iii n Low Medium High o * * * * * * Jariiban d, e, g, h

C Galkacyo requiring livelihood and life saving emergency assistance. a, d, e, g, h, i Goldogo)b A -100% A, B GALKAYO Urban: 60,000 !!. Low IDP: 40,000 Low In addition, the number of people internally displaced * * -0% i, ii, iii * * -0%

N d, e, h, i ! N

" ¸ " !! Cadaado

0 -100% #! 0 MUDUG around the country has significantly increased due to Urb' an:30,000 A ' 0 Hobyo 0 IDP° : 40,000 Low Cabudwaaq ° 6 6 i, ii, iii DUSAMAREB Indian Ocean recent conflict, from 870,000 in Gu ’08 to 1,020,000; * * -0% ¸!!. d, e, h #! ) Dhusa Mareeb !! A ) these people have also been negatively impacted by the Low GALGADUD -100% BELET WEYNE Harardheere Urban: 55,000 * * -0% !. Ceel Barde B!e!led Weyne ! #¸ ! !! IDP: 200,000 Ceel Bur hyperinflation. BAKOOL i, ii, iii Rab- Xudur a, d, e, h, i ! Dhuure )!. ! HUDUR HIIRAN Ceel Dheere A

Dolo w

o Low Luuq l Bulo! !)Barde !! )! Wajid g a ! w e * * -0% The urban poor continue to struggle to meet their basic !!)a y Aden Yabal H a GARBAHAREY Baydhaba T d Jal)!alaqsi e !. ! l

N e BAIDOA Cadale N

" Garbaharey " B !)!. food and non-food needs due to record high food prices. 0 ! Current or Imminent Phase 0 ' ! ' 0 Qansax J!o)whaMr . SHABELLE 1A Generally Food Secure 0 ° ) )! !. ° 3 !! Dheere ! Wanle Weyne JOWHAR) 3 From 2007 to 2008, the prices of imported rice and GEDO BAY !! 1B Generally Food Secure Ceel Waq ) Bur Hakaba !!)Balca!!d 2 Borderline Food Insecure Dinsor Afg¸oye #!)! BANADIR 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis local cereals have increased between 230% and 350%, Baardheere ! "/ ! #¸) MOGADISHU Qoryoley 4 Humanitarian Emergency

A ) Sakow !!)!. ) Kurtun Warrey Marka which significantly exceeds global cereal price increases. Y ) 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe M. JUBA

N BU'AALE )!. SablaleL). SHABELLE E ) Risk of Worsening Phase Although prices declined slightly from Oct. ’08, providing Bu'aale Brav!!a -100% Watch .Coloured diagonal lines indicate K !! Urban: 195,000 shift in Phase L. JUBA IDP: Moderate Risk Black lines indicate worsening Afmadow Jilib 635,000 . some benefits, they are still 450-780% above the long- ) i, ii, iii High Risk magnitude only a, b, d, e, g, h " Projected Trend "

0 A 0 term average (’97-‘05) and thus still at record highs. The ' Jamaame ' 0 Low Improving Situation Worsening Situation0 ° ° 0 0 KISMAAYO * * -0% No Change Mixed Situation Kismayo )!. average cost of the urban poor minimum expenditure Urban Populations in Humanitarian Emergency -100% ## Urban:70,000 and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis Badhadhe IDP: 20,000 Areas of New IDP Concentrations in Acute Food basket (CMB), or the consumer price index (CPI), has and Livelihood Crisis and Humanitarian i, ii, iii Emergency as of August 2008 d, e, h ± Areas of Old IDP Concentrations prior to more than doubled since Mar. ’07, with the largest A, C 0 15 30 60 90 120 150 January, 2008 Low Kilometers Sustained Phase 3, 4 or 5 for > 3 yrs increases in the south and central regions, at 280% (June * * -0% NOTES: 1. Estimated populations do not include IDPs and are rounded to the nearest 5,000 41°0'0"E 44°0'0"E 47°0'0"E 2. For category explanations see http://www.fsau5so0m°al0i.o'r0g "E ‘08) and 338% (Oct. ‘08). Datum: WGS84, Data Source: FSAU, 2007, Admin. layers: UNDP, 1998, Updated: Nov, 2007

Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsausomali.org Source: FSAU, Jan. 2009 P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-3745734 fax:254-20-3740598 The purchasing power of poor urban households has FSAU is managed by FAO. The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. declined since 2007, as income levels have not kept pace Figure 15: Central,The regional & District boSouth,undaries reflect those endor seNortheastd by the Government of the Republic of So mAveragealia in 1986. Wage Rate, regional highlights regional with the rising food and non-food prices. The urban poor derive Cereal Price and Terms of Trade Cereal to Labour a significant portion of their income from unskilled labour. 100,000 12 Four rounds of FSAU urban assessments over the last year, 90,000 Labour 10 combined with market analysis, indicate that hyperinflation in 80,000 Cereal

commodity prices has had an inflationary impact on income, 70,000 Labour /Cereal TOT 8 through rising wage rates (Figure 15). However, although 60,000

unskilled labour wage rates increased steadily from Mar. ’07 to 50,000 6 Dec. ’08, by approximately 110-130%, the increases have been SoSh 40,000 insufficient in matching the hyperinflation in food prices, and 4

30,000 Kg per daily wage rate purchasing power is still significantly lower than normal. 20,000 2 With income unable to match basic food and non-food price 10,000 increases, the urban poor have had to seek additional financial 0 0 support, in the form of cash gifts, loans and remittances, to meet their basic food needs. For instance, from Mar. ’07 to Dec. ’08, remittances and cash gifts received by the urban poor increased by 159% and 565%, respectively. By Dec. ‘08, financial assistance was covering between 15-35% of the CMB for many of the urban poor throughout the northeastern, central and southern regions. In addition to seeking financial assistance, households have also adopted a number of other distress coping strategies in order to deal with the crisis; these include purchasing cheaper cereals, skipping whole meals and borrowing food from neighbours. The percentage of urban poor households employing one or more of these coping mechanisms increased from 32% in Oct. ’07 to 59% in Oct. ’08. The increased inability to cope has resulted in reduced levels of dietary diversity, as 20-60% of the poor urban households were reported to have consumed less than four food groups per day in Oct. ’08.

Although prices have decreased slightly over the last three months, record high prices will continue to undermine the urban poor’s ability to access basic food and non-food items. If the situation does not improve, urban populations will exhaust many of their coping options. Already urban poor households are deeply indebted and becoming more impoverished, thus increasing their vulnerability to shocks and other crises.

12 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009

Map 9: RuralS Populations,OMALIA INTEGRATE DProjections FOOD SECURITY Jan.PHASE -C LJuneASSIFI C'09ATION RURAL Rural Populations: January - June 2009 Defining Attributes of Crisis -100% Areas in Phase 3, 4 or 5 45,000

e 41°0'0"E 44°0'0"E 47°0'0"E 50°0'0"E d Population in Phase (Includes High Risk) i, ii, iii u t i

n a, f, h g 0-100,000 101,000-500,000 The post Deyr ‘08/09 livelihood based integrated food a >500,000 N N

M B

" -100% " 0 0

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as well as in the three main pastoral livelihoods of Hawd, 6 6 High -0% * * !.DUSAMAREB * * -0% Indian Ocean Sool and Nugal Valley in the north. The Integrated Food Dhusa Mareeb GALGADUD BELET WEYNE Harardheere -100% Ceel Barde !. Security Phase Classification Evidence Templates for Beled Weyne 305,000 BAKOOL Ceel Bur i, ii, iii Rab- Xudur a, d, e, f, g, h, i each of the regions by livelihood zone are available on the Dhuure !. HUDUR Ceel Dheere A, B, C

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0 Qansax JowharM. SHABELLE 0 ° !. ° Gedo 3 GEDO Dheere BAY Wanle Weyne JOWHAR 3 Ceel Waq Bur Hakaba Balcad Current or Imminent Phase The overall food security situation varies between the Dinsor Afgoye BANADIR Baardheere 1A Generally Food Secure Qoryoley A Sakow Ma!.rka 1B Generally Food Secure north and the south, although there is slight improvement Y Kurtun Warrey M. JUBA -100% 2 Borderline Food Insecure N BU'AALE !. Sablale L. SHABELLE 355,000 in parts of the south, particularly Bardera and some E Bu'aale Brava i, ii, iii 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis K L. JUBA a, b, d, e, g, h, i 4 Humanitarian Emergency A, B, C Afmadow Jilib 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe areas of El Wak district. The situation has further Low

" -0% " regional highlights

0 * * * Risk of Worsening Phase 0

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0 Watch Coloured diagonal lines indic0 ate worsened in the north, due to poor Deyr ‘08/09 rains, ° . ° 0 KISMAAYO shift in Phase 0 !. Moderate Risk Kismayo -100% .Black lines indicate worsening below normal crop production, high cereal prices, and 20,000 High Risk magnitude only i, ii, iii Badhadhe Projected Trend a, b, d, e, h Improving Situation Worsening Situation weakened purchasing power. The number of people in A, B, C No Change Mixed Situation High Humanitarian Emergency (HE) increased to 35,000 * * -0% Sustained Phase 3, 4 or 5 for > 3 yrs NOTES: 1. Estimated populations do not include IDP or Urban estimates, and are ± rounded to the nearest 5,000 people from 21,000 during Gu ’08, while the number of 2. For category explanations see http://www.fsausomali.org 0 12.525 50 75 100 125 Datum: WGS84, Data Source: FSAU, 2007, Admin. layers: UNDP, 1998, 41°0'0"E 44°0'0"E 47°0'0"E Updated: N5ov0, 2°007'0"E people in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Kilometers dropped from 78,000 people to 60,000 people in Deyr ‘08/09. In Figure 16: Gedo (Luq) Terms of Trade, Local Goat and Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsausomali.org P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] addition, there are 30,000 urban poor people, who are currently Labor totel: 254 -2Cereal0-3745734 fax:254-20-37405 98 (Maize) FSAU is managed by FAO. The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. in AFLC due to sustained hyperinflation #!!" The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986. %#" (Table 1 and Map 9). '#!" '!!" 565"789.0":8.3;<+,+.0" %!" Crop production, rangeland conditions, and livestock production &#!" 565"7.=8>,;<+,+.0" &!!" $#" are poor in most of the region, as a result of significantly below %#!"

average Deyr ‘08/09 rains. Exceptions are, however, Bardera ()"*+,"4+.-" %!!" $!" $#!" and southern El Wak districts. Bardera is benefiting from ()"*+,"-./01"2.)+",.3+" improved rangeland conditions, good cereal crop production $!!" #" (87% of the total region cereal production), as well as good #!" !" !" cash crop production and labour opportunities. In southern El wak district, rangeland conditions have improved, leading to improved livestock body conditions and livestock conception rates. As a result of consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, Deyr ‘08/09 season calving/kidding rates as well as milk production remain poor throughout most of the region, although medium to high calving rates of goat are anticipated in March-April ’09, especially in southern Gedo. Livestock herd growth remains poor with herd sizes still significantly below baseline levels throughout most of Gedo. Due to low cereal production, labour opportunities have decreased and as a result, income is limited, except in the riverine areas of Bardera district, where Deyr ‘08/09 maize production is fairly average. Although cereal prices have declined since Oct.‘08, they are still high when compared to last year as well as to the 5-year average. In some markets, livestock prices are the same or above last year’s average and the 5-year average. However, purchasing power remains very low and below last year’s average as well as the 5-year average, as the TOT for goat to cereal has worsened (less than 50kg/ local quality goat) and the labour to cereal TOT has not improved (Figure 16). Civil insecurity over the last three months is an additional factor negatively impacting food access.

An integrated analysis of information from nutrition assessments conducted in Gedo in Dec. ’08 and health information and feeding facilities’ data, indicates a Very Critical nutrition situation across all the livelihoods in the region. This illustrates a sustained crisis in the pastoral and riverine populations and a deterioration for agro-pastoral populations over the last six months. Of great concern is the elevated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) rate of 6.6%, reported amongst pastoral populations. The worsening nutrition situation is partly attributed to successive seasons of poor crop production, low milk production, hyperinflation, increased food prices, increased civil insecurity, and the resultant decline in food availability and access, as well as poor child care practices. Ongoing localized insecurity has severely disrupted delivery of humanitarian assistance, including access to selective feeding centres for the severely malnourished children. 13 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009

Lower and Middle Juba The food security situation of the rural populations in the Figure 17: Juba Terms of Trade, Labor to Cereal (Maize) Juba regions has continued to improve since Gu ‘07. It 30.0 is estimated that 20,000 riverine rural poor in Lower and 25.0 Middle Juba regions (10,000 people each) are in Acute Monthly Average 2003-2007 2007 2008

Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), which is 31% of the 20.0 affected riverine population in Gu ‘08. The 7,000 riverine people who were previously in HE are now in AFLC. 15.0 The 12,000 agro-pastoral and 2,000 pastoral people who were in AFLC in Gu ‘08 are currently Borderline Food Kg per Daily labour rate 10.0 Insecure (BFI). Although there is improvement in the 5.0 situation for rural populations, the urban poor continue to

struggle with hyperinflation and 70,000 remain inAFLC . 0.0 JUL JUL JAN JUN FEB SEP SEP APR OCT M A Y DEC AUG NOV (Table 1 and Map 1) MAR

The food security situation is improving for rural populations due to a combination of factors. Cereal production levels and labor opportunities improved as a result of the Gu ’08 and Deyr ‘08/09 seasonal production and two off- season cropping periods (Sept.-Nov. ’08; expected March-April ’09). Total cereal production from these four periods is estimated at 18,350 MT, which is 90% of the PWA annual production. Cereal stock availability analysis in the Juba regions indicates that stocks could last up to six months, depending on the district. All the desheks have replenished, which is providing an abundance of wild foods, opportunities for fishing, as well as cash crop production. Terms of trade (TOT) between labor and cereal have increased by 130% since July ‘08. The highest TOT between labor and cereal in southern Somalia were recorded in the Juba regions at 11kg/daily labor wage, which is 30-35%, above the 5-year average and the Dec. ‘07 TOT. This is due to a significant increase in daily labor wage rates in Dec. ‘08 (130,000 SoSh) and a considerable decrease in local cereal prices in the last six months. However, although the TOT significantly improved in the last six months, it is still lower than the long-term mean. Agro-pastoral and pastoral households are benefiting from improved pasture and browse in most parts of the hinterland, and good livestock body conditions and production, as herd sizes for all livestock species are above baseline levels (Figure 17). The integrated nutrition situation analysis post Deyr ‘08/09 indicates an improvement amongst agro-pastoral populations from Critical levels recorded post Gu ’08 to Serious levels post Deyr ‘08/09, with the exception of a sustained Serious phase amongst pastoral populations since Gu ’08. Mitigating factors include increased access to milk (from own livestock as well as from livestock migrating into the Jubas from other regions), increased access to fish in flooded areas and increased income from additional labour opportunities. For the riverine populations, although acute malnutrition rates were below the emergency thresholds, elevated rates of severe malnutrition have kept this population in a Critical nutrition situation. Limited access to safe water and sanitation facilities as well as to health

regional highlights regional services prevent the population from recovering from the nutrition crisis. Kismayo IDPs have been a sustained Critical phase since the Deyr ‘07/08.

Bay and Bakool The food security situation in all livelihoods in Bakool Figure 18: Bay and Bakool Terms of Trade, Local slightly improved. The situation in Bay region remains Goat to Cereal (Sorghum) 30 Borderline Food Insecure (BFI), except for areas of Five Year Monthly average 2007 2008 northern Baidoa, where there was further deterioration 25 following consecutive seasons of crop failure. For some agro-pastoralist households in these localized areas, 20

the situation has deteriorated from Acute Food and 15

Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) to Humanitarian Emergency Kg per head (HE). In Bay region, 4,000 and 1,000 people are now in 10

AFLC and HE, respectively. In Bakool, the total number 5 of people in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) decreased by 16%, 0 to 45,000 people in HE and 80,000 people in AFLC. In addition, due to sustained hyperinflation, about 60,000 of Bay and Bakool’s urban population remain in a state of AFLC (Table 1 and Map 1).

Good Deyr ‘08/09 rains in Bakool resulted in improved crop and rangeland conditions. Deyr ’08/09 production is above both the post-war and 5-year averages, except in some small pockets (see Agriculture and Livestock Sector). Rangeland conditions and livestock body conditions have improved with medium to high livestock conception rates for all species; livestock out-migration levels are also low. However, livestock herd sizes among pastoralists and

14 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009 agro-pastoralists remain significantly below baseline levels due to several seasons of dry conditions and high levels of livestock off-take. In the Bay region, due to the mixed performance of rains, Deyr ‘08/09 cereal production is below the post-war and 5-year averages. However, despite the low production, available stocks exceed cereal consumption requirements in the region and will provide opportunities for sale over the next six months. Cereal prices, although still at record high levels, have been falling since July, thus improving the purchasing power of pastoralists and agro- pastoralists (Figure 18). Despite these improvements, however, food access for many poor households in the affected areas of Bakool and northern Baidoa district will remain critical over the next six months.

Although no nutrition assessment has been conducted recently in the Bakool and Bay regions due to civil insecurity, an integrated analysis of available nutrition information indicates that Bakool’s agro-pastoral and pastoral populations are likely to be in a Very Critical phase and Bay’s agro-pastoralists are likely to be in a Critical phase. In Bakool, findings from rapid MUAC assessments conducted in Dec ’08 in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones reported high proportions (22% and 16.6%) of acutely malnourished children with MUAC <12.5cm or oedema. Data on selective feeding admissions of severely and moderately malnourished children shows high numbers with fluctuating and increasing trends in Wajid and Tieglow districts over the last two months. Health facilities data has shown high levels and an increasing number of acutely malnourished children in the last three months. In Bay, findings from a rapid MUAC assessment conducted in Dec ’08 indicate a high (17.7%) proportion of acutely malnourished children and 2% with MUAC <11.0cm or oedema. The HIS data from health facilities shows an increasing trend with a high proportion of acutely malnourished children in Baidoa, Berdale and Qansahdere district. Access to SFP services is available but limited in rural areas. The SFP data in the feeding centres shows high levels of admission.

Lower and Middle Shabelle The food security situation in the Shabelle regions (Middle and Lower Shabelle) is mixed, with the Lower Shabelle region showing some improvement, and the Middle regional highlights Shabelle region experiencing further deterioration. In the Shabelle regions, a total of 465,000 people are in a state of Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), with an early warning level of Watch in Lower Shabelle and a moderate risk in Middle Shabelle over the coming six months; this is a 21% decrease since post Gu ’08. Of the total affected, 235,000 people are in HE (11% decrease since July ’08) and 230,000 are in AFLC (28% decrease since Gu ’08). In Middle Shabelle, of the 260,000 people that are in AFLC or HE, 67% are agro-pastoral; 7% are riverine; 10% are Women transporting off-season maize harvest, pastoral, and 12% are urban poor. In Lower Shabelle, the Qorioley, Lower Shabelle, Oct. '08. majority, or 40%, of those affected are urban poor; 36% are agro-pastoral; 10% are riverine; and 4% are pastoral. Of the Shabelles’ total urban population, 15,000 remain in HE, while another 95,000 are in AFLC, with an early warning of Watch (Table 1 and Map 1).

There is a further deterioration for rural populations in Middle Shabelle due to a number of factors, including a severe Deyr ’08/09 rainfall deficit, following poor Gu ’08 rainfall, several seasons of below normal crop production (Deyr ‘08/09: 46%; Gu ’08: 32%; Gu ’07: 46%; and Deyr ‘06/07: 51% of PWA), high input costs, persistent hyperinflation and a severe depletion of pasture, which caused livestock out-migration. In addition, escalated civil insecurity has led to a greater IDP influx from urban towns to the regions’ rural areas, which continues to strain already limited rural resources. Household food stocks have depleted due to consecutive crop failure. Although the purchasing power (labor to cereal TOT) of poor households increased slightly over the last three months in most areas (average of 6 kg/daily wage rate in Dec. ‘08), it is still lower than the Jan. ’07 TOT, which was 13 kg/daily wage rate. It also significantly reduced in Adanyabaal market, from 5kg cereal/daily wage rate in July ’08 to just 1kg/daily wage rate in Dec. ‘08. In Lower Shabelle, although the Deyr ‘08/09 crop production is below average (36% of PWA), the food security situation improved due to a combination of Gu ’08 seasonal cereal production (33,000MT), Deyr ‘08/09 production (13,000MT), and a significant off-season crop harvest in Oct. ’08 (18,500MT). The TOT between labour and maize has improved since July ’08 by 100% in the main riverine markets in Lower Shabelle due to improved labour opportunities, an increase in labour wage rates and a decrease in local cereal prices.

The nutrition situation has shown significant improvements amongst agro-pastoral and IDP (Merka-Afgoye corridor) populations from Critical in Gu ’08 to Serious in the Deyr ‘08/09. The riverine population has remained in a sustained Serious phase since Gu ’08. Humanitarian interventions (including food and cash transfer, and increased access to safe water and sanitation), a favourable off-season harvest and increased access to fish, fruits and vegetables have mitigated the previous Critical nutrition situation. Nevertheless, high incidences of morbidity and civil insecurity

15 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009

remain aggravating factors to the sub-optimal nutrition situation. Of concern are the sustained elevated number of oedema cases, especially amongst IDPs (1.0%) and riverine (1.1%) populations, and the continuing displacement of vulnerable households from Mogadishu, which has placed pressure on host communities. In Mogadishu, the nutrition situation is likely to be Very Critical based on an integrated analysis of key outcome evidence, with no notable change over the last two years. Hiran The overall food security situation in Hiran region Figure 19: Hiran Region, Trends in Sorghum Prices

has been deteriorating since Gu ‘08. Consequently, 18,000

the number of people in Humanitarian Emergency 16,000 Monthly Average 2003-2007 2007 (HE) in rural areas has increased from 113,000 people 14,000 to 135,000 people, which is an increase of 19%. The 2008 12,000 number of people in both Acute Food and Livelihood 10,000 Crisis (AFLC) and HE has also increased since Gu ’08 SOSH and currently stands at 200,000, representing 75% of 8,000 the region’s rural population, with approximately 68% in 6,000 HE and 32% in AFLC. Factors that have contributed to 4,000 the serious deterioration include poor crop production, 2,000 resulting from below normal Deyr ‘08/09 rains (67% of 0 JUL JUL JAN JUN FEB SEP SEP APR M A Y OCT DEC AUG MAR the LTA), recurrent conflict in both urban and rural areas, NOV and disruption of trade and economic activities. The worst affected livelihood zone is the agro-pastoral LZ, where 75,000 people are now in HE and 37,000 in AFLC. This is followed by Riverine LZ, where 27,000 people are in HE. Since July ’08, the humanitarian situation in Hawd and Southern Inland Pastoral LZs has remained the same: 22,000 people and 9,000 people are in HE, respectively. The urban poor continue to struggle to meet their basic food and non-food needs due to record high food prices. The urban populations affected have remained the same since July ’08;20,000 people are in AFLC, and 5,000 are in HE (Table 1 and Map 1).

Cereal production is estimated at 4,500MT, which is 188% of Deyr ‘07/08 production, 67% of PWA (1995-2007) and 89% of the 5-year average (2003-2007). The majority of this production (75%) is from Beletweyn district, which benefited from pump irrigation and depressed seasonal river (wadi) irrigated crop production. Compared to Dec. ’07 and Dec. ’08 prices, and the 5-year average, cereal prices increased, but show a declining trend from July ‘08 to Dec. ’08. Terms of trade (TOT) between labor to cereal show a slight improvement of 107% and 45% in December ’08, when compared to July ‘08 and December ’07, respectively, but are still low when compared to the 5-year average. A fourth consecutive season of crop failure in both Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi district led to a significant food deficit in the majority of rural and urban communities. Moreover, a lack of income earning opportunities, a reduced number regional highlights regional of marketable animals and continuous repayment of accumulated debts continue to curtail both urban and rural households’ ability to buy food.

The nutrition situation for all the livelihoods in Hiran indicates a likely sustained Critical phase since the Gu ’07. Although there is a lack of representative survey data to make a definite classification, the existing data suggests that the situation is unlikely to have changed from Gu ’08. Screening data from health facilities continues to indicate high numbers of acutely malnourished children, with mixed trends: declining in agro-pastoral areas, stable in pastoral areas and increasing in the riverine, with a relative risk of further deterioration amongst the riverine populations. Data from INGO run Selective Feeding Programmes in Bulo Burti also show an increasing number of admissions. The Critical nutrition situation in Hiran is mainly attributed to a sustained food security crisis, high levels of chronic nutritional vulnerability and limited humanitarian access.

Central The overall food security situation in the drought-affected central (Galgadud and Mudug) regions has deteriorated even further since Gu ‘08. The depth of the crisis is severe, with an estimated 350,000 rural pastoralists and agro-pastoralists and 55,000 urban inhabitants in either Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) or Humanitarian Emergency (HE). More than half the total population of the two regions is in crisis. Furthermore, there are another 200,000 IDPs, a result of increased civil insecurity in the Shabelles and within the parts of the central regions. The number of people in HE increased in the Addun, Hawd, Coastal Deeh and the Cowpea Belt LZs, and there is an early warning of a moderate risk of deterioration in terms of the number of people in HE before the end of June ‘09. Since Gu ‘08, the number of people in HE has increased by 41% (from 117,000 to 165,000) in Galgadud and by 27% (from 55,000 to 80,000) in southern Mudug. This deterioration is due to poor Deyr ‘08/09 rainfall performance, which deepened the drought, and widespread civil insecurity, which led to increased numbers of IDPs (increase of 5,000 people). Of particular concern is the recent displacement from Dhusamareb and Guricel towns, resulting from increased fighting between religious groups in those areas. (Table 1 and Map 1)

16 FSAU Somalia Food Security and! Nutrition Special Brief - Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, February, 2009

In the central regions, below average Deyr ‘08/09 seasonal rains (50% of the normal), combined with previous successive seasonal failures resulted in a further deterioration of rangeland conditions (water and pasture). Livestock body conditions (big ruminants) and production remain very poor, and livestock herd sizes are now significantly below baseline levels. In the agro-pastoral areas of the Cowpea Belt, there was a complete crop failure during the Deyr ‘08/09 season, which compounded the effects of previous successive below average seasons. Cereal prices are at record high levels and the highest in all of Somalia. Although the terms of trade (TOT) between Poor camel body conditions, Dhusamareb, goat and cereal has improved in the last six months, the Dec. '08 number of people benefiting from the improved purchasing power is significantly low due to high levels of livestock asset losses caused by drought. There are very few marketable livestock and households continue to rely on distress coping options such as buying on credit.

The FSAU Post Deyr ’08/09 integrated nutrition analysis indicates a very alarming nutrition situation in the two main pastoral livelihoods in the central regions. The Hawd pastoral livelihood has deteriorated to Very Critical from the Critical phase post Gu ’08, as predicted. This deterioration is due to a combination of factors, including the continuing food security crisis, ongoing displacement, a severe and, as of yet, uncontrolled Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD) outbreak, and a complete lack of access to basic services and humanitarian assistance for affected populations. The Addun pastoral livelihood has reported a persistent Critical nutrition situation, with risk to deteriorate further, due to worsening food security indicators and lack of humanitarian assistance. The current analysis estimates that there are 10,000 severely malnourished children less than 5 years of age in the Galgadud and Mudug regions, who are at risk regional highlights of death, if they do not receive the appropriate treatment. However, due to shrinking humanitarian space, essential life-saving operations have been scaled down and needs are not being met.

Northeast In the northeast, the food security situation of pastoral Figure 20: Northeast Terms of Trade Local Goat, Export populations in southern Nugal and northern Mudug Quality Goat and Labour to Cereal (Rice) regions has deteriorated further since Gu ’08, due to 100 9 another poor seasonal rainfall performance (Deyr ‘08/09 90 8 80 is 20-40 % of the long-term average) and persistent 7 70 hyperinflation. The number of people in Hawd Pastoral of 6 60 Mudug and Nugal regions in Acute Food and Livelihood 5 50 4 Crisis (AFLC),with a moderate risk to Humanitarian 40 Kg per Head TOT Local Goat/Cereal

3 wage Daily per Kg Emergency (HE), has increased since Gu ’08. Addun 30 TOT Export Goat/Cereal 2 pastoralists, who were Borderline Food Insecure (BFI) 20 TOT Labour/Cereal with moderate risk of AFLC during Gu ’08, are now 10 1 in AFLC. The urban poor continue to struggle with 0 0 hyperinflation and an estimated 130,000 remain inAFLC throughout the northeast, with the exception of Bossasso town, where there is a portion of the urban poor who are in HE. The total population in AFLC and HE in northeastern regions of Bari, Nugal and northern Mudug is 195,000, of which 130,000 are urban inhabitants and 65,000 are rural pastoralists. Of the total number affected, 81% are in AFLC and 19% are in HE. In addition, there are both newly displaced and protracted IDPs that are in need of humanitarian assistance. (Table 1 and Map 1)

Pasture and water remains very poor in Hawd and Addun pastoral of Mudug and Nugal regions due to three successive poor seasons of rainfall (Deyr ‘07/08, Gu ’08 and Deyr ‘08/09). As a result, most berkads are empty and many berkads and boreholes need repair. Water shortages have led to early water trucking and water prices are increasing (from 3,000-4,000 SoSh/20 ltr in Dec. ’08). Most of the remaining pastoralists of Hawd migrated to the Ogaden region of Ethiopia, while Addun pastoralists of Jariban district migrated to Hawd of Eyl district. Pasture and browse in Sool, Nugal Valley and Hawd of Eyl district were fully regenerated due to the normal to good Deyr ‘08/09 rainfall that attracted the livestock of the neighboring livelihoods. Both imported and local cereal prices remain at record highs, even though they have declined since July ‘08. Many households, especially the poor, have switched from imported rice to cheaper local cereals to reduce costs. Prices of maize and sorghum, however, dramatically increased by 146% (maize) and 104% (sorghum) from Dec.’07 to Dec.’08 and are 190% and 179% higher than the Dec. 5-year averages, respectively. The purchasing power of both pastoralists and urban communities has further declined. Terms of trade (TOT) between local quality goat and rice is 17% lower than the Dec. ’07 TOT (from 42.11kg/head to 35.15kg/head) and 45% lower than the 5-year average. One export quality goat fetches 38.11kg of rice, which is 19% lower than

17 Dec. ’07. The TOT between labour and cereal is 19% lower than Dec. ’07 and 51% lower than the Dec. 5-year average. The integrated nutrition situation analysis post Deyr ‘08/09 recorded no major changes in the nutrition situation in most of the livelihoods of the northeast regions from post Gu ‘08 except for the Hawd livelihood zone (Mudug and Nugal regions), which has deteriorated from Critical in the Gu ‘08 to Very Critical, and Golis/Gagaab livelihood zones, which have improved from Serious in the Gu ‘08 to an Alert phase. The Addun livelihood zone has been in a sustained Critical phase since the Gu ’08, with risk to deteriorate, while Sool Plateau (Bari region) remains in the Alert Phase. Of great concern are the Bossaso protracted IDPs currently classified in a Very Critical phase with no change from post Gu ‘08. This alarming situation is due to a combination of factors, including diarrhoeal outbreaks, reduced access to food due to the increasing food prices, and poor child care practices. The results are consistent with historical data on nutrition surveys conducted among IDPs in the northeast regions, which highlight chronic nutritional vulnerabilities. The lack of an established livelihood system in the IDP population, and the general limited access to basic services, exacerbate the compromised nutritional status of the population.

Northwest The food security situation has improved for the three main pastoral livelihoods and the agro-pastoral areas of Gabiley district, which were identified inAcute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) post Gu ’08. As a result, they are now identified as Borderline Food Insecure (BFI). There is deterioration, however, for the Golis/Guban pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of Awdal and W. Galbeed (with the exception of Gabiley district) and they are now identified in AFLC. Despite deterioration in these areas, the overall rural population in crisis has significantly reduced, as the number experiencing improvements exceeds the number that has deteriorated. The estimated rural population in AFLC is now 45,000, which is down from 125,000 in Gu ’08. The urban poor continue to struggle with hyperinflation, and the number remains at the same level as in Gu ’08, with 30,000 in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and 110,000 in AFLC.

Deyr ’08/09 rainfall was normal in most parts of the northwest; however, the pastoral areas of Golis/Guban and the agro- pastoral areas of Galbeed, Awdal and Togdheer regions received below normal rains. Water availability is generally good to average in most parts of the regions; however, localized areas of Hawd of Hargeisa, Lasanod and the upper Nugal valley of Aynabo and Elafweyn districts, and west of Sool plateau, which all received below normal rains, are expected to face water shortages during the upcoming Jilaal season. Livestock body conditions are good to average, but poor in Golis-Guban due to poor pasture conditions. Camel calving is low to none due to low conception rates during Deyr ‘07/08, which resulted in below average milk production. During Deyr ‘08/09, camel conception rates were medium to high. Sheep/goat kidding rates were medium, which is due to medium conception rates during Gu ‘08. A slight decline in small ruminant herd sizes was noted during the assessment; the decline was the result of a disease outbreak and increased off-take for sales. However, herd sizes are still above baseline levels, with the exception of Golis Guban, where sheep/goat herd sizes were 68% below baseline levels. Income from livestock sales increased due to high demand of mainly export quality sheep/goat during the Ramadan and Hajj periods. In the northwest, Gu/Karan ’08 crop harvest is estimated at 17,552 Mt, which is 70% of Gu/ Karan ‘07, 94% of PWA and 72% of the five-year average. Local cereal supply in the main markets is below average due to poor crop production and limited to no carry-over stock from the Gu/Karan ’07 production.

The integrated nutrition analysis from the Deyr ’08/09 season, for the northwest region, indicates that the Golis/Guban livelihood zone is the only zone with a marked deterioration in the nutrition situation from Critical in the Post Gu ‘08 to Very Critical in the Post Deyr ‘08/09. A nutrition survey conducted in October 2008, reported a global acute malnutrition rate of 20.7% (and severe acute malnutrition (WHZ<-3 or oedema) rate of 2.4% (1.4-3.5). The alarming nutrition situation is mainly attributed to high morbidity rates from disease outbreaks, reduced access to milk due to out-migration of livestock, loss of livestock from earlier freezing rains and hyperinflation. The nutrition situation has however improved in the remaining rural areas. The mitigating factors in these areas include increased access to milk and livestock products and an overall improved food security situation.

Recent and forthcoming publications and releases

FSAU Press Release, February 5, 2009 FSAU/FEWSNET Market Data Update, January 2009 FSAU/FEWSNET Climate Data Update, january 2009 FSAU Nutrition Update, Noember - December, 2008 FSAU Technical Series Report, Post Deyr '08/09 Analysis, September 2008 (Forthcoming)

NOTE: The above publications and releases are available on the FSAU website: www.fsausomali.org

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