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Technical Series Report No V. 17 March 4, 2009 2008/09 Post Deyr Analysis Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia Box 1230 Village Market Nairobi, Kenya Ph: 254-20-3745734 Fax: 254-20-3740598 Web site: www.fsausomali.org Email: [email protected] Technical and Funding Agencies Managerial Support European Commission FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 17 ii Issued March 4, 2009 Acknowledgement FSAU would like to thank our partners, including government ministries, local and international NGO’s and other UN and international agencies, for their technical participation and logistical support in this seasonal assessment and analysis (see Appendix 5.9). This assessment would not be possible or as successful without this support. Partner participation continues to be a critical element within the seasonal assessment process that strengthens and adds credibility to the process and outcome. A special acknowledgement is also extended to FSAU’s thirty field based food security and nutrition analysts who continue to travel and work under very difficult conditions in Somalia to deliver information and analysis for the benefit of the Somali people. This season was perhaps one of the most difficult fieldwork periods for FSAU to date and yet the team succeeded to deliver a high standard of information and analysis . We would also like to thank the more than thirty enumerators based in Hiran, Lower and Middle Shabelle, Middle Juba and Bay region, who contributed significantly to data collection during the assessment. United Nations Office for the Coordination of OCHA Humanitarian Affairs Technical Partners participating in the Post Deyr ’08/09 Assessment FEWSNET, World Food Programme (WFP), Solidarites, ASEP, AMA, NAPAD, Southern Ag- riculture and Development Organization (SADO), Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Veterinary AID (VETAID), CARE, Horn Relief, CRO, HAVOYOCO, Gedo Local Authority, Hudur Local Authority, Dhusamareb Local Authority, Adado Local Authority, Abudwak Local Authority, Harardhere Local Authority, El Bur Local Authority, Somaliland Ministry of Livestock, Somaliland Ministry of Health and Labour, Somaliland Ministry of Pastoral Development and Environment, NERAD Somaliland, Somaliland Ministry of Water and Resources, Puntland Ministry of Land and Environment, Puntland Ministry of Planning and International Coordination, Puntland, Ministry of Interior, HADMA, PSAWEN, Somaliland Ministry of Agriculture FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 17 iii Issued March 4, 2009 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.1 KEY FINDINGS 1 1.2 IMPLICATIONS FOR RESPONSE 2 1.3 SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS 6 1.4 INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS 7 2. ANALYTICAL PROCESSES AND METHODS 9 3. SECTOR REPORTS 12 3.1 CLIMATE AND RAINFALL OUTCOME 12 3.2 CIVIL INSECURITY 15 3.3 Deyr ‘08/08 CEREAL CROP PRODUCTION 18 3.4 LIVESTOCK 24 3.5 MARKET ANALYSIS AND TRADE 29 3.6 NUTRITION SITUATION OVERVIEW 32 4. INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS 34 4.1 SOMALIA’S URBAN FOOD SECURITY CRISIS 34 4.2 SOMALIA’S RURAL FOOD SECURITY CRISIS 39 4.2.1 Gedo Region 39 4.2.2 Lower and Middle Juba 44 4.2.3 Bay and Bakool 49 4.2.4 Lower and Middle Shabelle 55 4.2.5 Hiran Region 61 4.2.6 Central Regions 65 4.2.7 Northeast Region 69 4.2.8 Northwest Region 73 5. APPENDIX 78 5.1.1 Background and Recent Developments in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification 78 5.1.2 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Reference Table 79 5.2 Time-Series of the Integrated Phase Classifications (IPC) Maps for Somalia 2005 – 2009 81 5.3 Progression of the Rural Humanitarian Situation by Region from Gu ’08 to Deyr ‘08/09 83 5.3.1 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Gedo Region from Gu 2008 to Deyr ‘08/09 83 5.3.2 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, L. and M. Juba Regions from Gu ’08 to Deyr ’08/09 84 5.3.3 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Bay and Bakool Regions from Gu ’08 to Deyr ’08/09 85 5.3.4 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Shabelle Regions from Gu ’08 to Deyr ’08/09 86 5.3.5 Progression of the Rural Humanitarian Situation for Hiran from Deyr ’07/08 to Gu ’08. 87 5.3.6 Progression of the Rural Humanitarian Situation for Central from Gu ’08 to Deyr ’08/09 88 5.3.7 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation for NE and NW Regions from Gu ’08 TO Deyr ’08/09 89 5.4 Post Deyr ’08/09 Estimated Population in HE and Aflc for the period Jan to June 2009 92 5.4.1 Somalia Combined Rural, Urban and IDP Population Numbers, Jan - June. 2009 93 5.4.2 Estimated Rural Population in HE and AFLC by District Jan. to June, 2009 94 5.4.3 Estimated Urban Population in HE and AFLC by District Jan. to June, 2009 95 5.4.4 Estimated Rural Population in HE and AFLC by Livelihood Zones, Jan. to June, 2009 97 5.5 Post Deyr ’08/09 Overall Timeline 99 5.6 List of Partners that participated in the Fsau Post Deyr ’08/09 Assessment 100 5.7 Deyr ’08-09 Seasonal Assessment Field Access, Sampling and Reliability of Data 101 5.8 Urban Indicator Matrix 102 5.9 IDP Matrix 104 5.10 Livestock Herd Dynamics by Region and Livelihood Zone 106 5.10.1 Livestock Herd Dynamics Gedo Region 106 5.10.2 Livestock Herd Dynamics Central and Bakool Region 106 5.10.3 Livestock Herd Dynamics Central, Juba and Northwest Regions 107 5.10.4 Livestock Herd Dynamics Northwest and Northeast Region 107 5.10.5 Livestock Herd Dynamics Northwest and Northeast Region 107 5.11 Money Vendors Surveyed by Location 108 5.12 Post Deyr ‘08/09 Assessment Analytical Tools 109 5.12.1 Food Security Livelihoods and Nutrition Assessment Pastoral Questionnaire 109 5.12.2 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Crop Production Survey 112 5.12.3 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Deyr ‘08/09 Crop Production Survey Summary by District 115 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 17 iv Issued March 4, 2009 5.12.4 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment Focus Group / Key Informant - Crop Production Survey Deyr 2008/09 118 5.12.5 FSAU Deyr ’08/09 Assessment: Conflict Monitoring Form 121 5.12.6 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Urban Survey Questionnaire 123 5.12.7 Evidence Based Analysis Template: Post Deyr ’08/09 Assessment 125 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Somalia Distribution of Rural Population in Crisis 2 Table 2: Somalia Distribution of Urban Population in Crisis 3 Table 3: Somalia Combined Rural, Urban and IDP Population Numbers, January - June 2009 3 Table 4: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Reference Table (FAO/FSAU May. 2008) 5 Table 5: Deyr ‘08/09 Assessment Analytical Process and Timeline 9 Table 6: Regional IDP Numbers and Percentage 16 Table 7: Deyr ‘08/09 Cereal Production Estimates in Southern Somalia 18 Table 8: Gu-Karan Cereal Production Estimates in Somaliland (Northwest) 19 Table 9: Annual Cereal Balance Sheet – June 2008 to May 2009 23 Table 10: Trends in Pasture, Water, Livestock body condition and migration 24 Table 11: Trends in Livestock, Production and Projected Herd Sizes 25 Table 12: Livestock Exported from Berbera Port (Jan. – Dec. ’08) 27 Table 13: Livestock Exported from Bossaso Port (Jan. – Dec. ’08) 27 Table 14: Exportation of Chilled Meat from Burao, Beletweyne, Mogadishu and Galkayo Abattoir (Jan. –Dec. ‘08) 27 Table 15: Urban Poor, Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) 30 Table 16 Urban Income Analysis 35 Table 17: Gedo Region, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 39 Table 18: Gedo Region, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 40 Table 19: Juba Estimated Rural Population by district in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 44 Table 20: Juba Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 45 Table 21: Bay and Bakool, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 49 Table 22: Bay and Bakool, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 50 Table 23: Shabelle Region, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 55 Table 24: Shabelle Region, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 56 Table 25: Hiran Region, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 61 Table 26: Hiran Region, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 62 Table 27: Central Region, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 65 Table 28: Central Region, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 66 Table 29: Northeast, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 69 Table 30: Northeast Region, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 70 Table 31: Northwest, Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 74 Table 32: Northwest Region, Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 75 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 17 v Issued March 4, 2009 LIST OF MAPS Map 1: Somalia Integrated Phase Classification Map, Rural, Urban and IDP Populations, Projections January - June ‘09 4 Map 2: Somalia - Deyr ’08/09 Assessment Data Point Locations 10 Map 3: Cumulative Rainfall (mm) October 1- December 30, 2008 12 Map 4: Percent of Normal Rainfall (mm) October 1- December 30, 2008 12 Map 5: December ‘08: NDVI (Absolute Difference from Long Term Mean) 12 Map 6: Abudwak Districts 14 Map 7: Abudwak Savannah 14 Map 8: Somalia Insecurity Impact Outcomes, January ‘09 15 Map 9: Somalia Deyr ‘08/09 Cereal Flow Pattern, Jan.
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