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Kenya Joins the Group of Oil Producing Countries in Africa Looking Forward

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Kenya Joins the Group of Oil Producing Countries in Africa Looking Forward Pan African Monitor Weekly Wrap & Outlook June 28, 2019 Kenya joins the group of oil producing countries in Africa Looking Forward Earlier in the week, the Kenyan government signed an agreement with oil majors; Total, Tullow Oil, and Africa Oil Corp, to develop a Egypt Jun-19 Inflation - July 10th 60,000-80,000 barrels per day crude processing facility for oil Policy Rate Decision - July 11th discovered in the country’s northwest region. In addition to the processing facility, a crude oil export pipeline from Lokichar to Lamu Ghana on Kenya’s coast was also part of the deal. Additionally, the Jun-19 Inflation - July 10th country’s Petroleum and Mining Minister said the partners were now Policy Rate Decision - July 22nd focusing on securing financing for an export crude oil pipeline. Kenya Evidently, the East African giant plans to position itself as a crude oil Q1-19 GDP - June 28th exporter, joining continental majors like Nigeria and Angola. May-19 (CPI) Inflation - June 29th However, the closest comparable economy is Ghana, which Policy Rate Decision - July 24th recently transited from a Gold mining and Cocoa producing economy to an oil-producing country. Similar to Ghana where the Morocco crude oil sector now is complementing output from the mining and Q1-19 GDP - June 28th the Agric. sectors, Kenya will be looking to diversify its mainly Agric Jun-19 (CPI) Inflation - July 22nd based economy (Horticultural products, Tea and Coffee) to an oil Nigeria mining economy. Jun-19 (CPI) Inflation - July 14th We believe this development brightens the outlook for the East Policy Rate Decision - July 23rd African Country, which currently leads the world in mobile money. South Africa Although the proven reserves in question is relatively small, our only Policy Rate Decision - July 18th concern remains the theoretical Dutch Disease - the paradoxical Jun-19 Inflation - July 24th decline in other sectors of the economy which occurs when good news, such as the discovery oil reserves, harms a country's broader Tunisia economy. Jun-19 Inflation - July 11th Top African Stories • South Africa's records FDI inflows of 11.7 bln rand in Q1: South Contact us Africa’s foreign direct investment swung to inflows in the first quarter from outflows in the final quarter of last year as domestic Research|+234-1-280-8125 private firms received equity and debt funding from foreign [email protected] parent companies, the central bank said on Thursday. Reuters Trustees|+234-1-280-7275 [email protected] • South Africa's Mminele quits as central bank deputy governor: Daniel Mminele will retire as deputy governor of the South Securities Trading|+234-1-280-7096 African Reserve Bank at the end of the month after 10 years in [email protected] the job, the central bank said on Thursday, making him the third member of its policy committee to quit the regulator recently. Investment Banking|+234-1-280-7583 [email protected] Reuters Asset Management|+234-1-280-7252 • Uber Plans to Launch Boat Taxis in Nigeria’s Biggest City: Uber [email protected] Technology Inc. is planning to launch its boat business in Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital and biggest city, to beat traffic Disclaimer congestion. Bloomberg United Capital Plc Research (UCR) notes are prepared with due care and diligence based on publicly available information as well as analysts’ knowledge and opinion on the markets and companies • Zambian court blocks asset sale by Konkola Copper Mines covered; albeit UCR neither guarantees its accuracy nor liquidator: Vedanta Resources said on Thursday a Zambian court completeness as the sole investment guidance for the readership. Therefore, neither United Capital (UCAP) nor any of its associates or has issued an order halting any move by the provisional subsidiary companies and employees thereof can be held liquidator of its Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) business to dispose responsible for any loss suffered from the reliance on this report as it is not an offer to buy or sell securities herein discussed. Please note this of KCM’s assets or make arrangements with its creditors. Reuters report is a proprietary work of UCR and should not be reproduced (in any form) without the prior written consent of Management. UCAP is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and its subsidiary, UBA Securities Limited is a dealing member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange. For enquiries, contact United Capital Plc, 12th Floor, UBA House, 57 Marina, Lagos. © United Capital Plc 2015.* Pan African Monitor Macroeconomics | Equities | Fixed Income | Currencies | Commodities June 27, 2019 Px_Last CHG_PCT_1D CHG_PCT_WTDCHG_PCT_YTD PE_Ratio BEST_DIV_YLD Px_to_book_ratio Equities Level Mcap ($'b) WTD (local) YTD (local) P/E P/B Div. Yield ICX10BRVM Index 151.9 9.5 -0.5% -1.6% 8.9 1.8 9.0% EGX30Egypt Index 14,100.7 47.8 0.4% 8.2% 15.3 1.3 3.0% GGSECIGhana Index 2,373.0 4.0 -0.5% -5.1% 19.4 1.9 2.1% NSEASIKenya Index 148.3 21.6 0.7% 5.6% 11.6 1.6 6.1% SEMDEXMauritius Index 2,130.9 8.8 0.7% -3.9% 18.6 0.9 na MCSINDEXMorocco Index 23,653.7 59.8 -1.0% -0.6% na na na NGSEINDXNigeria Index 29,749.4 36.0 -0.3% -5.3% 7.4 1.3 6.1% JALSHSouth AfricaIndex 58,066.7 488.6 -1.5% 10.1% 17.7 1.9 4.0% TUSISETunisia Index 7,065.5 8.2 -0.5% -2.8% 19.0 2.4 2.0% ZHINDUSDZimbabwe Index 768.7 4.9 3.5% 57.8% 32.5 4.3 1.3% MXWOGlobal Index Market 2,158.4 78,978.6 -0.9% 14.6% 18.1 2.4 2.6% MXFMFrontier Index Market 557.9 -- -0.1% 8.1% 12.1 1.8 5.5% MXEFEmerging Index Market 1,047.9 -- -0.5% 8.5% 13.7 1.6 3.0% Eurobonds Amt Out ($'bn) Average YTM WTD YTD Movements in Global Indices Vs Angola 5.0 7.4% -0.05% -1.8% Africa Egypt 23.2 6.3% 0.00% -1.4% Ghana 8.0 6.9% -0.05% -1.4% Iv ory Coast 4.6 6.2% 0.01% -1.6% Kenya 7.6 6.8% 0.52% -0.7% Morocco 2.3 3.7% -0.02% -1.1% Nigeria 11.2 6.4% -0.11% -1.9% Senegal 2.9 5.5% -0.05% -1.7% MSCI World S&P 500 GHSSouth BGN Africa Curncy 18.4 4.5% -0.02% -0.8% FTSE 100 MSCI Africa Tunisia 2.2 7.0% 0.02% -1.9% Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Currencies (vs. USD) Spot Rate WTD MTD YTD 6M Forward 12M Forward AOAAngola BGN Curncy AOA: Kwanza 341.3 -0.3% -2.8% -9.2% na na EGPEgypt Curncy EGP:Pound 16.7 -0.1% 0.5% 7.3% 17.6 18.5 GHSGhana BGN Curncy GHS:Cedi 5.5 -0.4% -0.5% -10.1% 5.7 6.1 KESKenya BGN Curncy KES: Shilling 102.2 -0.3% -1.0% -0.4% na na MURMauritius BGN Curncy MUR: Rupee 35.7 0.2% 0.9% -4.0% na na MADMorocco BGN Curncy MAD: Dirham 9.6 -0.6% 1.4% -0.3% 9.6 na NGNNigeria BGN Curncy NGN: Naira 360.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 370.0 384.5 ZARSouth BGN Africa Curncy ZAR: Rand 14.1 1.3% 3.1% 1.4% 14.5 14.8 TNDTunisia BGN Curncy TND: Dinar 2.9 1.9% 4.3% 4.3% na na XOFWAMU BGN Curncy CFA: Franc 577.1 0.3% 1.8% -0.8% na na 5 Commodities Spot Rate WTD MTD YTD 52 Week High 52 Week Low 12M Forward CO1Brent Comdty Crude 65.1 -0.2% 3.2% 23.7% 86.7 49.9 GC1Gold COMB Comdty 1,411.6 1.1% 8.1% 10.2% 1,433.3 1,161.4 HG1Copper COMB Comdty 271.4 0.3% 2.9% 3.2% 300.5 254.3 CCN9Cocoa Comdty 2,486.0 1.6% 3.3% 0.7% 2,584.0 2,043.0 Macro & Fixed Income 10Yr Bnd Yld Inflation Real Return Policy Rate *GDP ($'b) **GDP Growth Reserves ($'b) Angola 8.8% 1.1% 7.7% 18.0% 122.1 2.5% 15.8 Egypt 16.8% 14.1% 2.7% 16.8% 235.4 5.3% 44.3 Ghana 19.0% 9.4% 9.6% 16.0% 59.0 6.7% 5.2 Kenya 12.4% 5.5% 6.9% 9.0% 79.3 5.9% 8.4 Mauritius 4.4% 0.8% 3.6% 3.5% 13.3 4.1% 6.8 Morocco 3.1% 0.3% 2.8% 2.9% 109.7 2.9% 24.3 Nigeria 14.4% 11.4% 3.0% 13.5% 375.7 2.0% 45.1 South Africa 8.9% 4.5% 4.4% 6.8% 348.9 0.0% 48.3 Tanzania 15.7% 3.5% 12.2% 12.0% 53.3 7.7% 5.0 Tunisia 9.8% 7.0% 2.8% 7.8% 40.0 1.1% 5.0 Sources: Bloomberg, United Capital Research *GDP ($’b): Annual GDP by World Bank ** GDP Growth: Latest Quarterly GDP Growth .
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