No 4247 Politorbis Zeitschrift zur Aussenpolitik www.eda.admin.ch/politorbis Revue de politique étrangère Rivista di politica estera TheIslam Fragile et politique States Debate dansGenocide les Balkans occidentauxPrevention- Considering ways and means to achieve stronger statehood 2 / 2009 Contact: Federal Department of Foreign Affairs FDFA Directorate of Political Affairs DP Political Affairs Secretariat POLS Politorbis Bernastrasse 28 3003 Bern Phone: + 41 31 325 81 52 Fax: + 41 31 324 38 39 mailto: [email protected] www.eda.admin.ch/politorbis Politorbis Zeitschrift zur Aussenpolitik Revue de politique étrangère Rivista di politica estera N°47 2/2009 Table of Contents Preface: Today’s conversation about Genocide Prevention Mô Bleeker 9 Part A: Where are we now? Emerging paradigms in Genocide Prevention Andrea Bartoli 15 Tetsushi Ogata Gregory H. Stanton Genocide Prevention in Historical Perspective Yehuda Bauer 25 What is Genocide? William A. Schabas 33 What are the Gaps in the Convention? How to Prevent Genocide? Options for the Prevention and Mitigation of Genocide: Ted Robert Gurr 47 Strategies and Examples for Policy-Makers Why the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) as a Doctrine or Jeremy Sarkin 51 (Emerging) Norm to Prevent Genocide and Other Mas- sive Human Rights Violations is on the Decline: The Role of Principles, Pragmatism and the Shifting Patterns of In- ternational Relations Table of Contents Risks, Early Warning and Management of Atrocities and Birger Heldt 65 Genocide: Lessons from Statistical Research How to Use Global Risk Assessments to Anticipate and Barbara Harf 71 Prevent Genocide Prevention of Genocide: De-mystifying an Awesome Francis M. Deng 79 Mandate Part B: Specific actors Prevention of Genocide: The role of the International René Blattmann 85 Criminal Court Transitional Justice and Prevention Juan E. Méndez 91 Seeding the Forest: The Role of Transnational Action in Horacio R. Trujillo 99 the Development of Meaningful International Coopera- Sanjeev Khagram tion and Leadership to Prevent Genocide Religion and the Prevention of Genocide and Mass Susan Hayward 107 Atrocity Table of Contents Part C: Regional perspectives The Systematic Violations of Human Rights in Latin Daniel Feierstein 115 America: The need to consider the concepts of genocide and crimes against humanity from the “Latin American margin” Genocide Prevention and Cambodian Civil Society Socheata Poeuv 123 A Reflection from the United States: Advancing Genocide Lawrence Woocher 135 Prevention Through a High-Level Task Force The construction of a global architecture for the preven- Enzo Maria Le Fevre Cervini 149 tion of genocide and mass atrocities István Lakatos The regional fora: a contribution to genocide prevention Silvia Fernández de Gurmendi 155 from a decentralized perspective Special Thanks This publication was made possible by a collaboration of the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, Political Affairs Division Human Security, and the Engaging Governments on Genocide Prevention (EGGP) program of the Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution (ICAR) at George Mason University in VA, USA. Many of the authors participated in the Regional Forum on the Prevention of Genocide in Buenos Aires (10-12 December 2008), co-organized by the Governments of Argentina and Switzerland. Also, some of the most distinguished authors of this issue are members of the Genocide Prevention Advisory Network (GPANet; http://www.gpanet.org/). We extend our thanks first and foremost to Tetsushi Ogata and Diana Smith who not only helped coordinate the project but executed it with precision and dedication. Many authors as well as the co-editors have recog- nized Diana’s investment in the editorial review of the texts. We also thank Marlene Stefania for her designing layout for this diverse set of the articles. We are deeply appreciative. Special thanks go to all those who have contributed to the quality of the publication and to all those who at various stages provided encouragements for this initiative. Any remaining weaknesses are entirely our own responsibility. February 2010 Mô Bleeker Andrea Bartoli FDFA EGGP/ICAR Federal Department of Foreign Affairs George Mason University Preface Today’s conversation about Genocide Prevention Mô Bleeker1 Genocide prevention is the subject of the distinguish between one genocidal conflict/ compilation of articles we are publishing in this situation and another. Indeed, genocidal situation edition of Politorbis. The eighteen articles add up to is by nature unique and needs to be approached a metaphorical conversation, in which the various accordingly. Detailed analysis of the indicators authors have agreed to participate. likely to lead to an act of genocide (Birger Heldt, Barbara Harff) is crucial for early detection and This conversation – in the old sense of “living effective preventive action. But though we have with” and “engaging in an exchange with” others been aware of this for a long time, like Harff we is important for many reasons: must ask: “What has been learned? We know that - because acts of genocide continue to be planned genocides and political mass murders are recurrent and perpetrated; phenomena; that since WWII nearly 50 such events - because prevention is not always seen as an have happened; that these episodes have cost indispensible tool, process or objective; the lives of at least 12 million and as many as 22 - because, in spite of their intangibility, human million non-combatants, more than all victims of rights, are being sorely tested or even called into internal and international wars since 1945; and that question; human suffering rarely mobilized policymakers - because the genocide prevention community has into action.” accumulated a vast store of knowledge, but is aware of the (very) limited impact of its efforts, How, then, can we really make prevention more even its impotence; effective? The very fact that we have to ask this - because successful efforts are being made, but question points to our need to understand one we are not sufficiently aware of them. The result another as players in genocide prevention - each is that, when a crisis that could lead to genocide a segment in a complex chain. A unique segment is successfully defused, we do not remember it that has its own raison d’être, but which absolutely positively and build good practice upon it. must see itself as a link, an intrinsic part of a chain greater than itself. And this, in turn, points to the Finally, this conversation is important because new need to engage in more in-depth conversations, to players and new practices are always emerging. form more alliances. There is still however much to be done to ensure 1 Prevention networks that the players in genocide prevention become more than just the sum of their parts. In other Early action words, more synergy and cooperation is needed Early action, in seeking to prevent genocide, is to build a real (transnational and multicultural) often associated with partner states, regional genocide prevention community aware of its and international institutions (to which we shall strength and diversity and able to build on the return later). But looking beyond where early impact of its collective cumulative action. action is concerned, how can we engage with those scattered communities (and individuals)- civil Foreseeing and preventing recurrences society players, national and international players, Yehuda Bauer2 rightly insists on the need to media, artists, writers, politicians, development and humanitarian aid workers, business people – who live and work in societies where warning 1 Mô Bleeker, a trained political anthropologist, serves as a signs of genocidal situations are detected? These senior adviser in the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, in charge of Dealing with the Past and Genocide are the communities who could help to strengthen Prevention. She has an extensive experience in the field of human rights, conflict transformation and peace promotion 3 No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust? Assessing Risks of in several continents and conflict context. Genocide and Political Mass Murder since 1955 http://www. 2 Bauer, pages 25-32 brynmawr.edu/Acads/GSSW/schram/harff.pdf Politorbis Nr. 47 - 2 / 200 10 PREFACE “preventive initiatives” in these circumstances. we conclude from the discussions and efforts to What are the outcomes of the conversations with cooperate with this community to date, what are the these local actors until now? What lessons have lessons learned, the best practices? we learned in terms of best practice? How can we give them greater resonance and impact? How The agenda of State and multilateral players can we develop new cooperative ventures? Where Disagreement between States, among the members such conversations are not taking place, when and of the International Community, and even within how can we initiate them? What road maps, what State and multilateral bodies is another concern mobilization techniques and operational procedures voiced by a number of authors. For those moving can we develop to strengthen prevention efforts in in these circles, there are several aspects of the these societies? situation which are always worrying, and sometimes extremely frustrating: Human rights - The systematic – or even systemic – lack of Human rights norms and standards have developed connection between officials working for the same at an exponential rate in recent decades. The same government or multilateral institution. We