Preliminary 2021 National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii
M. Petersen, A. Shumway, P. Powers, M. Moschetti, A. Llenos, A. Michael, C. Mueller, D. McNamara, A. Frankel, P. Okubo, Y. Zeng, S. Rezaeian, K. Jaiswal, J. Altekruse, S. Ahdi, and K. Rukstales
USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 Virtual Workshop (Microsoft Teams) – November 18, 2020
U.S. Department of the Interior These data are preliminary or provisional and are subject to revision. They are being provided to meet the need for U.S. Geological Survey timely best science. The data have not received final approval by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and are provided Geologic Hazard Science Center (Golden, CO) on the condition that neither the USGS nor the U.S. Government shall be held liable for any damages resulting from the authorized or unauthorized use of the data ■ USGS https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/ sciencefor a changingworld Microsoft Teams Control Bar • When not speaking, please mute your microphone (or please do not be offended if the moderator does it for you!) • When not speaking, please turn off your camera. This also helps save bandwidth, which can help with picture and audio quality issues. • If you have a question, please "raise your hand" or type your question or comment into the meeting chat. Click on the hand when you are done to "unraise your hand". ■ • Troubleshooting: Try leaving and re-entering the meeting.
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~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 2 ~nee for• changingwtNld Agenda Session #1 (12:00 pm – 2:00 pm MST; 9:00 am – 11:00 am HST) Overview of Proposed Model and Discussion (120 min)
2:00 pm – 3:00 pmBreak (60 min)
Session #2 (3:00 pm – 5:00 pm MST; 12:00 pm – 2:00 pm HST) Preliminary Hazard Results, Planned Products, and Discussion (120 min)
~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 3 ~nee for• changingwtNld USGS Hawaii Hazard Model Timeline
• Hawaii Workshop #1 - University of Hawaii at Manoa (September 18, 2019) • HETAC Briefing (September 11, 2020) • Hawaii Workshop #2 – Virtual (November 18, 2020) • Review – HETAC, USGS Steering Committee, USGS internal review, scientific meeting presentations, public comment (Nov 13 -Dec 13 2020) • Submit paper to Earthquake Spectra and peer review (December 2020 - June 2021) • Present reviewed model to HETAC, Seismological Society of America, public release of product (Summer or Fall, 2021)
~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 4 ~nee for• changingwtNld 2021 National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii: Why Update?
• Hawaii hazard is significant, comparable with California and Alaska Frequency of Damaging Earthquake Shaking Around the U.S . • Last updated 1998-2001 (Klein et al., 2001) .-·-r·---~-- \ • Many new Hawaiian earthquakes (23 years, ' large earthquakes in 2006 M6.7 - Kiholo Bay, 2018 M6.9- Kalapana) • New geodetic data and models • New Quaternary-fault database for Hawaii • New methodologies: (declustering methods,
adaptive smoothing, residual analysis) Hawaii ,. Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin ltland& Honolulu.,. c:JAl... where '"_nontectonlc... • New strong motion data and new generations ••notearthquakH Included of ground motion models (NGAW2, Hawaii • specific) • New site effects data for Island of Hawai‘i (VS30)
~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 5 ~nee for• changingwtNld Comparisonof 1 SecondTotal Mean Hazard for Hawaii Pre-1959Rate v2 vs. Pos1•1959Rate v2 2%in 50 YearsProbability of Exceedance.NEHRP Site Class Boundary B/C (V 530= 760mis) Input Models ~- "Q""" ~'D'" ~'D" v~ ~- v~ 1. Catalog (C. Mueller) 0- ,., 2. Declustering (A. Llenos) Pre•1959Rate v2 (map 1) Post-1959Rate "2 (map2)
3. Earthquake Rates (M. Petersen) 1 SecondSpectral Acceleration (g)
4. Mmax (M. Petersen) " "G""" 5. Smoothing (M. Moschetti) .-..
6. Caldera Collapse and Volcanic- (map1) (map2) (map1)/(map2) Earthquake Correlation (A. Michael) Difference Ralio 7. Faults/décollements (M. Petersen) Sensitivity study figures: top two are maps for 8. Ground Motion (M. Moschetti) models being compared, lower left is difference 9. Site Effects (S. Ahdi) between upper left and upper right map, lower right is ratio of upper left divided by upper right 10. Risk (K. Jaiswal) maps.
We will describe models and show sensitivity studies for most models so you can determine the importance and uncertainty of each model. In the second session we will show some uncertainty estimates.
~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 6 ~nee for• changingwtNld 1. Earthquake Catalog • Input Catalogs • Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) - Oct 1959 to Mar 2009 • USHIS (Stover & Coffman) - M≥4.5/MMI≥VI - 1959 to 1989 • ComCat – 1959 to present • Note: HVO and USHIS were incorporated into ComCat after April 2019 (finalized in August 2020) • Catalog Compilation • Reformat and merge input catalogs • Get uniform moment magnitudes (conversion rules) • Get parameters for computing unbiased seismicity rates • Get UTC, flag "volcanic eruptions" • Delete duplicates • Final Catalog (Oct 1959 – Dec 2019) • 28,300 events • M2.5+ Summit: Kīlauea, Mauna Loa, and Lō’ihi volcanos • Mc2.9+ since ~1959 • Divide catalog into shallow (≤20km), deep (>20km), summit, non-summit, and caldera collapse
~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 7 ~nee for• changingwtNld Earthquake Catalog
• A • A' • • ~4x number of shallow events compared to deep events 0 • ..
(/1 0 .. • A A' • • C •• .... • • • I • • • I • •• • ·. I • • • . . . I • • • I I I I • I l • • • -• ~ • -· • • •• • • • • .. • • •• •• • •
X-section (A to A’) of seismicity across the island chain.
USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 8 Earthquake Catalog
Mwl!5pre1Q59
• 5 S Mw < 6 [311] • 6 S Mw < 7 ['17] • • Mw~7 [2] Historic Catalog (pre-1959) Mw ~ 5 post 1959 • 5SMw<6 [99] • Based on Klein & Wright (2000) • 6SMw<7[6) Mw~7 [1] - USGS Professional Paper 1623 • • • ~3,700 events • • M≥3 • Not used for PSHA calculations, but used to inform rate model
pre-1959 seismicity (blue) and post-1959 seismicity (red)
~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 9 ~nee for• changingwtNld 2. Declustering Models
• Reasenberg (1985) (R85) • Clusters identified by linking events through spatial and temporal interaction zones • Default (California-tuned) R85 parameters used, except for Hawaii-specific minimum look-ahead time and probability of detection • Maximum distance threshold imposed (30 km) (c) • Used in 2001 Hawaii model 0.2 • Zaliapin et al. (2008) (NN) 0.15
~ • Seismicity separated into clustered and independent events "ii C 0.1 based on the bimodal distribution of nearest neighbor space- ~ time distances 0.05 • Other methods investigated 0 • Gardner and Knopoff (1974) -15 -5 0 • ROBERE (Llenos and Michael, 2020) earest-neighbor d1stanoe, log 1"I Modified from Zaliapin and Ben-Zion (2013)
~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 10 ~nee for• changingwtNld Declustering Results
• NN tends to remove more events from the NN: 1,352 events (1,107 removed) R85: 1,714 events (745 removed) catalog than R85 • Spatial distributions, b-values are relatively similar .\I,. 2: 3 "'"2:3 I 1959-2019 19S9-2019 I, .. Catalog Depth Zone Type N(M>=3.5) B-value O«hi~rered. oearest ne1izhbo ()~l'lu~IC'JC'd.Re c.-n~~ ( l98S I 'on~luster'"-d catalop I 'on~~lu t~n:d c:,1:.1101 I Full Shallow Summit 633 1.2 0 ·wwn11zo11~ 0 ·ummn zones
I Non-summit 1391 1 I l r Deep Summit 109 0.95 I l.'j-, Non-summit 326 0.95 Declustered Shallow Summit 200 (32%) 1.15 (R85) Non-summit 1099 (79%) 1 Deep Summit 105 (96%) 0.95 Non-summit 310 (95%) 0.95 . Declustered Shallow Summit 140 (22%) 1.3 . . (NN) Non-summit 879 (63%) 1 ------Deep Summit 96 (88%) 0.9 Non-summit 237 (73%) 0.95
~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 11 ~nee for• changingwtNld Using Full Catalogs in PSHA (Marzocchi and Taroni, 2014)
• Declustering is useful to prevent aftershocks from biasing the expected long-term spatial distribution of mainshocks but may underestimate the true seismic hazard. • First decluster to remove spatial bias, then rescale a-grids so that rate of earthquakes and b-value matches those in full catalog. Hazard Maps {10% POE in 50 Declustered Full (non-declustered) 47 47 0.6i 46 46 45 45 0.5, 44 44 0.4, 43 43 42 42 0.31 41 41
40 40 0.2: 39 39 38 38 0.1 37 37 8 10 12 14 16 18 8 10 12 14 16 18
~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 12 ~nee for• changingwtNld Using Full Catalogs in PSHA (Marzocchi and Taroni, 2014) • Declustering is useful to prevent aftershocks from biasing the expected long-term spatial distribution of mainshocks but may underestimate the true seismic hazard. • First decluster to remove spatial bias, then rescale a-grids (agrid scaling factor in table below) so that rate of earthquakes and b-value matches those in full catalog. Catalog Depth Zone Type Nfull/ Agrid scaling Ndeclus factor
~l":?:J ~·- :?:3 1959-2019 1959-2019 Declustered Shallow Summit 3.17 4.95 0cchffit"l'CJDUk<-llk'iplk.. D«ln~Rr:i-cubttill98' • ·o,Hl«huh:rl'd~·al.lb)J (R85) • '"n-U..i.:lu t,-n:,tou 11of Non-summit 1.27 1.27 o"'mlllil~ 1D'iamillllimn --- - -I I I l I Deep Summit 1.04 1.04 r I I I I:)._, , .... ·: . I ..: : I I Non-summit 1.05 1.05 . , I I I I Declustered Shallow Summit 4.52 1.86 I• I I f I -·· I (NN) ~1·,. I Non-summit 1.58 1.58 I .. . •.; -~: . I Deep Summit 1.14 1.8 I Non-summit 1.38 1.38 I [] I t___ _ ------..J 1' L __ _ ------______J
~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 13 ~nee for• changingwtNld Comparisonof PGATotal Mean Hazard for Hawaii FulVNNCatalog vs. NNCatalog Declustering Sensitivities 2% in 50 YearsProbability of Exceedance,NEHRP Site Class Boundary B/C (Vs 30 = 760 mis) 23· 23'
22· (/1 <:Jlihue 22· (/1 C)Lihue
H~ H~~ • NN and R85 catalogs show similar 2r ~~ului.. 2r ~~ului.. 20· 20· Kon km km hazard results 19• 19· 0- 100 0- 100 is· 18' • Comparisons of NN and Full/NN show ·161" -150· -159' ·158. ·15T -156" -155· -15,· -151· -16(f .159· -158" -15T -156' -155· -154" Full/NNCatalog (map 1) NNCatalog (map 2) 5-25% increases for rescaled models 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0,14 0.19 0.26 0.35 0.48 0.65 0.88 1.19 1.62 2.21 3.00 (see figure on right) PeakGround Acceleration (g) 23· --~--~------+- 23' -,....------~-~--~-----;-
, <:Jlihue • We give equal weight (0.25) to each 22' (/1 <:Jlihue 22'
Hono~ H u declustered catalog: NN, R85, NN 2r ~~ului.. 21· ~~ului.. 20· 20· Kon Kon with scaling to full catalog weight, km km 19' 19' 0 100 v· 0 100 v· and R85 with scaling to full catalog - - -1sr -150· -159' .1ss· .15r -156' -155' -15,· -16r -160· .159· -153· -157" -155· -155· -154· weight (map1) - (map2) (map1) / (map2)
·0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 -0.05 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.33 0.50 0.67 0.80 0.90 0.95 1.05 1.10 1.25 I.SO 2.00 3.00 Difference Ratio
~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 14 ~nee for• changingwtNld 3. Earthquake Rate models Magnitude-frequency diagram for Hawaii 3
2
Klein et al (2001)
Rate model proposed by 1 indicate 43 M>=6 in Klein et al. (2001) based 140 years on Island on their observations. of Hawai‘i, b=1.0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 I 7 8 9 b=1, Hawaii b=1, N. Islands -1
log10 number of earthquakes greater than M greater of earthquakes number log10 -2 Klein et al (2001) indicate 8 M>=6 in 140 years on -3 northern islands, b=1.0
-4 Magnitude
~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 15 ~nee for• changingwtNld Earthquake Rate models: Post-1959
Magnitude-frequency diagram for Hawaii
3
2
When we plot the 1 observed data, we get similar rates to what Klein et al. (2001) proposed for 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 b=1, Hawaii the post-1959 data. b=1, N. Islands Observed (Hawaii) -1 Observed (N. Islands)
-2 log10 number of earthquakes greater than M greater of earthquakes number log10
-3
-4 Magnitude
~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model: Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 16 ~nee for• changingwtNld Earthquake Rate models: Pre-1959
Magnitude-frequency diagram for Hawaii
3
2 When we plot the observed data, we get lower rates than Klein et 1 al. (2001) proposed for
the pre-1959 data. 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ~ b=1, Hawaii --e- b=1, N. Islands • Observed (Hawaii-older) -1 Observed (N. Islands-older)
-2 log10 number of earthquakes greater than M greater of earthquakes number log10
-3
-4 Magnitude
~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 17 ~nee for• changingwtNld Mw 2: 5 pre 1959 • 5 :s Mw < 6 [311] Rate Model • 6 :s Mw < 7 [47] • Mw 2: 7 [2] • M7 earthquakes only on Mw 2: 5 post 1959
Island of Hawai‘i 0 5 :s Mw < 6 [99] • M6 earthquakes only in pre- 0 6 :s Mw < 7 [6] Honalulu 1959 catalog for northern • 0 Mw 2: 7 [1] islands, none since 1959 in 0 • • northern islands • • •
• M5 earthquakes 3 to 4 times 0 North • higher in the pre-1959 South catalog 0 oo 0 • 0 • • Catalog Mw 2: 7 post Mw 2: 7 Mw 2: 6 post Mw 2: 6 Mw 2: 5 1959 1868-1959 1959 1868-1959 1868-1959 North 0 0 0 9 44 South 3 47 422 North + South 1 3 7 56 466 ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 18 ~nee for• changingwtNld Earthquake Rate models • Post-1959 earthquake catalog used for smoothed and gridded sources (discussed later) • Post-1959 rates applied in model 1 • Post-1959 rates doubled in model 2 to account for higher rates represented in pre-1959 catalog • Pre-1959 weighted 0.33, post-1959 weighted 0.67 because we trust the post-1959 catalog more than pre-1959 catalog, when few seismic stations were available and locations and magnitudes were more uncertain. ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 19 ~nee for• changingwtNld Earthquake Rate models: Sensitivity (weight of 1.0 for each model) Comparisonof 0.2Second Total Mean Hazard for Hawaii Comparisonof 1 SecondTotal Mean Hazard for Hawaii Pre-1959Rate v2 vs. Post-1959Rate v2 Pre-1959Rate v2 vs. Post-1959Rate v2 2% in 50 YearsProbability of Exceedance,NEHRP Site Class Boundary B/C (V 530 = 760mis) 2% in 50 YearsProbability of Exceedance,NEHRP Site Class Boundary B/C (V 530 = 760mis) 23' 23' 23' 23· g, (]Lihue (]Lihue (]Lihue 22' 22' g/ (]Lihue 22' gJ 22' gJ Hoo u H u -=, H u H 21' Kahului 21' Kahului 21' ~~hului 21' ~~ului --..• • ., ., 20' 20' 20' 20' K km km km km 19' 19' 19' 19' ~ 0 100 0 100 0- 100 0- 100 +" - - 18' 18' 18' 18' ·181' -160' ·159' ·158' ·15T ·156' ·155' ·154' ·161' ·160' ·159' ·158' ·15T -156' -155' ·154' ·161' ·160' ·159' -158' -15T ·156" -155' ·154' -161' ·160' ·159' ·158' ·15T ·156' -155' ·154' Pre-1959Rate v2 (map1) Post-1959Rate v2 (map2) Pre-1959Rate v2 (map1) Post-1959Rate v2 (map2) 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.14 0.18 0.26 0.35 0.48 0.65 0.88 1.18 1.62 221 3.00 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 o.14 0.18 0.26 0.35 0.48 0.65 0.88 1.19 1.62 2.21 3.00 0.2Second Spectral Acceleration (g) 1 SecondSpectral Acceleration (g) 23' __ _._ _ ___,.___..,_ _ __,__ ___,.___..,__-4- 23' +---'----''----'----'----''----'----- 23' +---'---'---'---'----''---..L...---1- 23' +---'----''--...,_ _ _,__ __,J,__...,__-4- Lihue Lihue 22' 22' , 22' 22' , Hoo u H u Kahului H u H Kahului 21' -:~hului 21' ...... 21' 21' ....,. • ..• • 20' 20· 20· 20' Koo km km km km 19' 19' ◊'" 19' 19' 0 100 0 0 100 0 100 V - - 100 - - 18' -+----.----,,---~---.----,--~--+ 18' 18' +----r----..---~---r----..---~--1- ·161' ·160' ·159' ·158' ·15T ·156' ·155' ·154' ·161' ·160' ·159' ·158' ·15T ·156' -155' ·154' •181' -160' •159' •158' -157' ·156' ·155' •154' •161' ·160' •159' •158' •15T •156" ·155' •154' (map1) - (map2) (map1)/ (map2) (map1) - (map2) (map1) / (map2) -0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -020 -0.10 -0.05 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.33 0.50 0.67 0.80 0.90 0.95 1.05 1.10 125 1.50 2.00 3.00 -0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -020 -0.10 ,0.05 0.05 0.10 020 0.30 0.<0 0.50 0.33 0.50 0.67 0.80 0.90 0.95 1.05 1.10 125 I.SO 2.00 3.00 Difference Ratio Difference Ratio ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 20 ~nee for• changingwtNld 4. Mmax Models • We allow for M7, M7.5, and M8 earthquakes in the gridded seismicity sources. • In recent NSHMs we allow for earthquakes up to M8 in gridded seismicity sources. • We cannot rule out events like the Lanai earthquake (Butler, 2020) or décollements under the island (e.g., Wyss and Koyanagi, 1992). • We assign weights of M7 (0.7), M7.5 (0.2), and M 8.0 (0.1). ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 21 ~nee for• changingwtNld Mmax Models: Sensitivity (weight of 1.0 for each model) Comparisonof 0.2Second Total Mean Hazard for Hawaii Comparisonof 1 SecondTotal Mean Hazard for Hawaii DraftModel #7: M7.5vs. M7shallow non-summit grid sources DraftModel #7: M7.5 vs. M7shallow non-summit grid sources 2%in 50 YearsProbability of Exceedance,NEHRP Site Class Boundary 8/C (V530 = 760mis) 2%in 50Years Probability of Exceedance,NEHRP Site Class Boundary B/C (V 530= 760mis) 23· 23· 23· 23' 22· ~ Qlihue 22' ~ Qlihue 22' ~ Qlihue 22· ~ <:)Lihue H u H u H u H 21' Dow Kahului 21' ~ului 21' ~~lxJl\j 21' ~~ului ~ .. .. ., ., 20' 20' 20' 20' Koo km km km km •♦' 19' 19' 19' 19' ~ 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 - - - - 18' +-- ...... -- .....--- ...... ----,....--...,....--+ 18' 18' ·161' ·160' ·159' ·158' ·15T ·158' ·155' •154' ·161' ·160' ·159' ·158' ·15T ·156' ·155' •154' ·161' ·160' ·159' ·158' ·15T ·156' ·155' ·154' ·161' ·160' ·159' ·158' ·157' ·156' ·155' ·154' M7.5(map1) M7(map2) M7.5(map 1) M7(map2) 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.14 0.19 0.26 0.35 o.48 o.65 0.88 I.IS 1.62 2.21 lOO 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.14 0.19 0.26 0.35 0,48 0.65 0.88 1.19 1.62 2.21 lOO 7.00 1 SecondSpectral Acceleration (g) 0.2Second Spectral Acceleration (g) 22' 22' ~ Qlihue 22' ~ Qlihue 22' ~ Qlihue Hoo u H 21' 21' c:::::, Kahului Hoo u H u ,. 21' l:::!:7 Kahului 21' 'D .. • 20' 20· 20· 20· km km km km 19' 19' 19' 19' 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 - - - - 18' +-- ...... -- .....- ...... -...... ------+ 18' -t------~-~---,.. ·161' ·160' ·159' ·158' ·157' ·156' ·155' ·15'1' ·161' ·160' ·159' ·158' ·157' ·156' ·155' ·15'1' ·161' ·160' ·159' ·158' ·15T ·158' ·155' ·154' ·161' ·160' ·159' ·158' ·157' ·156' ·155' ·154' (map1) • (map2) (map1) / (map2) (map1) · (map2) (map1) / (map2) -0.50 -0.,0 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 -0.05 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.30 o.,o 0,50 1.00 0.33 0.50 0.67 o.80 0.90 0.95 I.OS 1.10 125 1.50 2.00 3.00 -0.50 -0.40-0.30-0.20 -0.10 -0.05 0.05 0.10 0.20 o.30 0.40 0.50 1.00 3.00 0.33 0.50 0.67 0.80 0.90 0.95 1.05 1.10 1.25 1.50 2.00 3.00 Difference Ratio Difference Ratio ~USG8 USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 22 ~nee for• changingwtNld 5. Smoothing Models • Implementing Adaptive Smoothed Seismicity • Method applied in multiple regions and applications (e.g., 2014 and 2018 NSHMs) • Smoothed seismicity (earthquake-catalog derived) largely controls hazard where faults and fault sources -0.50-0.25-0.10-0.05-0.02 0.02 0.05 0,10 0.25 0.50 are absent ASA, 5 Hz (g) • Shares many of the assumptions of fixed-smoothing -r=50km -r=10km methods (e.g., large-magnitude earthquakes occur 0.9 -r=75km 0.8 where small earthquakes have occurred in the past, M- 0.7 F relationships follow G-R distributions between Mmin 0.6 0.5 and Mmax at all grid cells, etc.) 0.4 0.3 • Smoothing kernels differ for different earthquakes 0.2 0.1 • Based on method of Helmstetter et al. (2010) 150 Example (radial) smoothing kernels for different smoothing distances ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 23 ~nee for• changingwtNld Smoothing Models 24' 24' N=10 Proposed Zones for Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Shallow Zl Mauna~Summit and uppermost rift • Polygons from Paul... 20· 20· KilaueaCaldera KilauHSWrifi:zone KilaueaSEhnkandE riftzone Loihlsubmarine 18° 18' ,ok,M Deep 16' 16' We originally came up with some spatial zones, based on seismicity patterns, but further analysis of b-values showed that there really 14° ~=_,.,,_,.,,...... ,,...... ,,...... ,,...... ,,...... ,,...... ,,....,.....,.....,.....,...... ,~ was only a distinction between shallow, deep, non-summit, and -162° -160° -158' -156' -154° -152' -162' -160' -158' -156' -154" -152' summit zones. The larger the nearest-neighbor number, the more hazard increases to the outer islands. Smoothing Distance Smoothing (km) 205 22· IP G 22· IP G 75 • • ~o • • Minimum smoothing distance: 5 km 50 0 • Q:l • Maximum smoothing distance: 100 km 20· 0 '{II- 20· 25 • M >3.5, since 1960 ,0 c 10 0 • Separate earthquake catalog into shallow/deep • 0 • • • 18° 0 18° • 0 and then Summit/Non-Summit zones -160° -158° -156° -154° -160° -158° -156° -154° Significant differences in smoothing distances (km) across the islands. ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 24 ~nee for• changingwtNld Smoothing Models: Sensitivity (weight of 1.0 for each model) Comparisonol 02 SecondTotal Mean Hazard lor Hawaii • Sensitivity ShallowSeismicily: NN N4 vs. NN NB Comparisonol 1 SecondTotal Mean Hazard for Hawaii 2%in 50 YearsProbability of Exceedance,NEHRP Site Class Boundary 8/C (V 530 = 760mis) DeepSeismicity: RBS N3 vs. RBS NG 23· +-_....__ _. _ __,___ ..______....___ 2%in 50 YearsProbability ol Exceedance,NEHRP Site Class Boundary 8/C (V530 = 760mis) 23' +--_._ _ _,__ __,__ ..__.,__....__-+ comparing lowest 23· +----'-- ...... ------.,_ _ _.__ _.__-+ 22" 22" 22' H and highest N- 21" 21" 21" ,.. 20· 20· numbers 1cm 1cm 20' 19· 0 100 0 100 1cm .. 19' 19' +----,---.----,..--..---,----,---+- - 0 100 0 100 ,a· - - • 18' +----,--....,.---,,---.,....- ...... --.---+ 1&'+-----.----,------1- Differences and NNN4 (map 1) NNNB (map2) RBSN3 (map 1) RBSN6 (map 2) ratios are low, in 0.C3 0.04 o.os ~OS 0.10 0.14 ~•9 0.2' ~:!6 0,48 MS 0.88 1.19 1.92 221 100 02 SecondSpectral Acceleration (g) O.o3 0.04 0.08 IUl8 0 10 0.14 0,19 0.28 o..35 0,48 0.&5 OM 119 182 2.21 3.00 1 SecondSpectral Acceleration (g) localized areas 23· 23· 23' .,__~ _ _,_ _ __, __ ..__.,__....__....._ 22" (? ourue 22· , ouooe 22" , ouooe H 21" ~'D'" 21" ~'D'" .. .. 21" ~<_t,h -0.50 -0..CO--o.30 -0.20 -0.10 -0.05 0.05 0.10 020 0.30 0.40 OSI 0.33 0.50 0.67 0.80 0.90 0.95 1.05 1.10 l.2S I.SO 2.00 3.00 Difference Ratio -0.50 -0.&0 -o.30 -G.20 -0,10 -o..050.06 0.10 0.20 0.30 DAO 0.50 O.JJ 0.50 OJ7 0.80 0.90 0.95 1,05 1 10 1.25 1.50 2.00 3.00 Difference Ratio ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 25 ~nee for• changingwtNld 6. Caldera Collapse Earthquakes View from HVO April 14, 2018 2018 Number M ≥ 4.0 85 M ≥ 4.5 63 View from HVO August 20, 2018 M ≥ 5.0 54 M ≥ 5.5 0 photos from USGS HVO From Neal et al., Science, 2019 EUSGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 26 sci,nc,for•cltoogtlfJ-ld 6. Caldera Collapse Earthquakes • Since 1906, there have been 6 summit subsidence events at Kilauea that Island of Hawai'i Eruption and Large Earthquake (M 6 or larger) Timelines included earthquakes within the caldera. adapted from Tilling and others [2010], USGS GIP 117, and USGS ComCat Upto 1 year Mauna Loa Volcano Upto I I - 1 month - i' i' • No ~ ~ We term these Caldera Collapses. ~ ◄- Upto - information i i - 1 week ~ _§ lwodays - - or less I I I M≥4 M≥5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N co 8 N tD co 0 N ... tD co 0 0 ,._ co co co co O'I O'I O'I O'I O'I 0 Year N N 8 earthquakes earthquakes I 0 Earthquakes 0 earlies~ report 1823 CII "C ~ :t:: 1924 24 0 7 0 0 C: 0 C Cl 0 ., 0 0 :::E 0 0 0 00 0 1955 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 'c> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 co 0 N 0 N tD co 8 N ,._ co co O'I O'I O'I... O'I en 0 0 1960 0 0 ... N N Upto 1 year Kilauea Volcano Upto I 1 month ------Halema'uma'u Crater, summit -11----t-----tl 1969 0 0 Upto 1 week Twodays or less 1970 0 0 .....__,_pu·uo·o/ Violently Essentially continuous Total Kupaianaha [TI explosive ac1ivity Inactivity Halema·uma·u D D Lower East Rift Zone 2018 85 54 * Caldera collapse events: 1924, 1955, 1960, 1969, 1970, and 2018 EUSGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 27 sci,nc,for•choog"IJ-ld 6. Caldera Collapse Earthquakes Cumulative Probability of M≥5 earthquakes in 50 years 0 • Clustered Earthquake Probability Model: T""" Collapse Model • Random, independent Caldera Collapses CX) 0 • Poisson rate of 2.6 collapses/50 years co Combined with 0 • Rate of earthquakes in a collapse Poisson λ=10.14 (same mean rate) • Fit data to negative binomial distribution • Maximum number based on total volume above C\J the magma chamber as compared to the volume of 0 the 2018 collapse. cumulative probability of occurrence of occurrence probability cumulative 0 Collapse model will be published as Llenos and 0 Michael. 0 100 200 300 400 number of events EUSGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 28 sci,nc,for•cltoogtlfJ-ld 6. Caldera Collapse Earthquakes Collapse earthquakes have reduced ground motion at short periods. A10 modified for caldera 10·1 collapse events by Dan McNamara, Morgan -C) -C: 0 Moschetti, and Peter :.:; 0 ~ Powers. "C A10 caldera collapse GMM C: 10·2 e::, C, cuC: =o Q) Abrahamson, Silva & Kamai (2014) ~ • Boore, Stewart, Seyhan & Atkinson (2014) 10·3 Campbell & Bozorgnia (2014) • Chiou & Youngs (2014) Atkinson (2010) : Hawaii Atkinson (2010) : Hawaii : Caldera 10·4------~--~~------~--~~~~-----~--~-~--~--~ 10·2 Period (s) EUSGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 29 sci,nc,for•cltoogtlfJ-ld 6. Caldera Collapse Earthquakes A 10 Caldera Period=1.5s, rjb=2 h=1 • Clustered behavior requires using ------Poisson Clustered collapse model probability and not rate of exceedance. •------~±1σ .... .- ...... 'Ii." .... . , ...... 10% . ci ' \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ • Poisson model is adequate at \ \ \ \ ...... ,...•...... 2% probabilities 10% in 50 years or \ \ \ 0 ' less. ci \ ' \ ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' • Poisson model overestimates Probability of exceedance 50 for years ' ' ' ' .- ground motions at higher 0 ' ' C! 0 ' ' probabilities. ' ' 0 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 acceleration (g) EUSGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 30 sci,nc,for•cltoogtlfJ-ld 6. Caldera Collapse Earthquakes 2% in 50 YearsProbability of Exceedance,NEHRP Site Class Boundary B/C (V 530= 760m/s) 23· 23• • Mean hazard at 2% in 50 years 22· di <:JLihue 22· di <:JLihue Hon~ Ho~ for 0.2 s (top) and 1.0 s 21' ~ului 21' ~~ului .. ... (bottom). 20· 20· Kon Kon km km 19• 19• 0- 100 -.·· 0- 100 v· • Total hazard (left) vs. only 18' +----,-----,,----,----,-----,,----,---+ 18' -t----,---.------r----,-----,.------r----t- ·161' ·160' ·159' -158' -15T -156' -155' -154' -161' -160' -159' ·158' -157" -156' -155' -154' caldera collapse hazard (right). CalderaCollapse Model (map 1) OnlyCaldera Collapse Model (map 2) 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.14 0.19 0.26 0.35 0.48 0.65 0.88 1.19 1.62 2.21 3.00 7.00 • Uses Poisson model. 0.2Second Spectral Acceleration (g) 2% in 50 YearsProbability of Exceedance,NEHRP Site Class Boundary B/C (V 530= 760mis) • Caldera collapse hazard is only 23· 23· an issue close to Kilauea 22· di <:JLihue 22· di <:JLihue Hon~ Hon~ 21' ~~ului 21' ~~ului caldera. ., ... 20· 20' km km 19• 19• ,v•· • Can’t ignore these events due to 0- 100 0- 100 18' 18' damage to HVO and potentially -161' -160' -159' -158' -15T -156' -155' -154' -161' -160' ·159' -158' -157" -156' -155' -154' CalderaCollapse Model (map 1) OnlyCaldera Collapse Model (map 2) other caldera area structures. 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.14 0.19 0.26 0.35 0.48 0.65 0.88 1.19 1.62 2.21 3.00 1 SecondSpectral Acceleration (g) EUSGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 31 sci,nc,for•cltoogtlfJ-ld HAWAII HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES CRUSTALEARTHQUAKES 10115no06 • 7. Fault Model M6.0 Z=18 • M?.0-7.9 1/3/1885 • M6.S-6.9 M6.1. • M 6.0-6.4 MANTLEEARTHQUAKES 4l26n3 M6.2 Z=39 (Z> 15) • M 6.0-6.4 Earthquake Fault Rupture Areas Figure from Klein et al. (2001); updated by Brian Shiro and Mark Petersen M6.7; 9/75 8/6/1890 M 6.5; 4/22/51 M 7. 7 3/30/64 M6.2 M 6.0, 6.4 Pacific 0 30km Ocea,z 5 4/18 M6.9, 7.2 ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 32 ~nee for• changingwtNld Fault Model: Geometry (a) Flank Source Geometries (b) Quaternary Faults -- HistoricaI(<150years) Latest Quaternary (<15,000 years) -- Late Quaternary (<130,000 years) Decollement □ Klein200I ():,] Proposed ~ Volcanoes We have updated the décollement geometries from Klein et al. (2001), based on evidence in the Q-Fault database ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 33 ~nee for• changingwtNld Fault Model: Slip rates Figure from Emily Montgomery-Brown (USGS) 1 0.8 o KAEP-MKPM Clean Local North 0.6 -=--,------,----- ...... 0.4 ·:~······i··········································!··············································· ~ 0.2 \: ;················ ····r.. ············ : ...... !...... ················ .. ·•·· .. 0 Slip about 7 cm/yr a ·=····. ..················':········· . ...·...... ;...... ··············································· ...... -0.2 :oo-,•0001 .. , ...... •••••':• .. ••••••• .... •••••U•••:1•• ••••••• •• •• •-:• •••••••••••••• •••••• which is faster than the . . . . . -0.4 . ····················...... , ...... San Andreas Fault in -0.6 .; ...... ; ...... ;...... ,; ...... ······· ... ; ... . -o.8...__.___ __. ___ __. ___ __. ___ __. ___ __. ___ __. _ __. California 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 201-l 2017 Pacific/Honolulu Tune (1998-04-30 23:59:59 to 2018-04-25 23:59:59) ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 34 ~nee for• changingwtNld 100 20.4 50 Fault Model: Slip rates GPS Vectors: Red= data, Blue= model 20.2 20 10 20 Geodetic model 5 19.8 2 • GPS data (J. Foster and G. Apuzen- 19.6 Ito). • South flank geodetic models 0.5 for décollement 19.4 motion significantly higher than for 0.2 west flank. 19.2 0.1 • Western flank M7 rate is modeled as 0.05 about 1000-1500 years (similar 19 30 mm/yr to Klein et al. [2001] rate and the 0.02 strain rate data). 18.8 0.01 -156.4 -156.2 -156 -155.8 -155.6 -1554 -155.2 -155 -154 8 -154.6 ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 35 ~nee for• changingwtNld Fault Model: Southern Décollement • Klein et al. (2001) and applies an a-value of 1.552 and a b-value of 0.5713 for larger earthquakes. We apply their model for consistency and because it is a viable model that we cannot rule out using recent data. • The second and third models are based on the inter-event timing of historical earthquakes with M > 7 and with comparisons with moment rate analysis (Chen et al., 2019). • For model 2 we consider a 50-year recurrence of M 7+ (370 years for M 7.7+) earthquakes for earthquakes between M 7 and M 8.2. This is similar to interevent time between 1975 and 2018 events or 3 events in 150 years. • For model 3 we consider a 100-year recurrence of M 7.7+ (20 years for M 7+) earthquakes for earthquakes between M 7 and M 8.2. This is similar to interevent time between 1868 and 1975 events. • Each model is weighted 1/3, equal weights. ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 36 ~nee for• changingwtNld Fault Model: Southern Décollement So o e tud a GM AlO (0.2) ASK14 (0.2) Klein et al. {2001) Extrapolated 7-8.2 BSSA14 Combined (1.0) (1.0) (0.2) (0.333) South Flank Fault Historical Moment Model 7-8.2 CB14 Balanced 50-yr M7+ (1.0) (0.2) (0.5) Proposed (0.667) Historical Moment Balanced 100-yr CY14 M7.7+ (0.2) (0.5) ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 37 ~nee for• changingwtNld Fault Model: Western Décollement • Geodetic models suggest much lower expected earthquake rates on the western flank décollements • Our calculation of M7+ earthquakes using Klein et al. (2001) a- and b-values is generally consistent with a 300-year recurrence for M 7 earthquakes for western décollement sources. • To estimate recurrence rates of M7 earthquakes for the west flank, we need an estimate of average fault displacement in a M 7 earthquake and a slip rate which we determined to be about 1.1 mm/yr. • Zeng et al. (1986) indicate that the Loma Prieta earthquake (M 6.9) had an average displacement of about 1 m strike-slip motion. • If we consider that a M 7 may rupture with 1 m displacement and the fault slips with 1.1 mm/yr, it would take about 1000 years for the appropriate displacement to build up. • We consider two models to explain the earthquakes on the west décollement. The first model considers a 1000-year recurrence for M 7 earthquakes and the second model considers a 1500-year recurrence for M 7 earthquakes, based on estimates from GPS and slip rates described above. This second model could assume aseismic slip strain release. ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 38 ~nee for• changingwtNld Fault Model: Western Décollement So rceGeo e Al0 (0.2) ASK14 (0.2) Geodetic 7 - 7.25 BSSA14 {1000-year) {1.0) {0.2) Klein et al. 2001 {0.5) {HUA+KON) (0.5) Geodetic West Flank Fault CB14 {1500-year) Model {0.2) Proposed {0.5) {HUA+KON+MIL) (0.5) CY14 (0.2) ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 39 ~nee for• changingwtNld Fault Model Sensitivities (weight of 1.0 for each model) Comparisonof 1 SecondTotal Mean Hazard for Hawaii Comparisonof 0.2Second Total Mean Hazard for Hawaii DraftModel #10 South Flank: Klein Extrapolated vs. ProposedHistorical DraftModel #10 West Flank: G1, R1 vs. G2,R1 2%in 50 YearsProbability of Exceedance,NEHRP Site Class Boundary B/C (V 530 = 760mis) 2%in 50 YearsProbability of Exceedance,NEHRP Site Class Boundary B/C (V 530 = 760mis) 23' 23' 23' 23' 22' d' QLihue 22' d' QLihue 22· d' QLihue 22· d' QLihue H H H H~ 21' ~~ul 21' ~~hwul 21' ~~ulul.. 21' ~~Lri.. .. 20' 20' 20· 20· Koo{)io Kvilo km km km 1cm 19' 19' 19' 19' 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 - - - - 18' +---,---,---.,....-""T"----,--.,....--1- 18' -t---,--,,---,---,----,----,-----1- 18" -i----,---,,---...---,--"""T----+ ·161' -150• -159• -158· -15r -156' -155· -154· ·161' -160' -159• -158' -15r -156' -155· -154· -161' -150• -159• -158' -15r -158" -155' .154· ·161' ·160' -159' ·158' ·157' ·156' ·155' -154' KleinExtrapolated (map 1) ProposedHistorical (map 2) G1,R1 (map 1) G2,R1 (map 2) 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.10 0.14 0.19 0.26 0.35 0.48 0.65 0.88 1.19 1.62 Z.21 3.00 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.10 0.14 0.19 0.26 0.35 0.48 0.65 0.88 1.19 1.62 Z.21 3.00 7.00 1 SecondSpectral Acceleration (g) 0.2Second Spectral Acceleration (g) 23' +---'---'---'----1..----'-----'----I- 23' +---'---'---'---'----1..----'----1- 23' -t-_ ...... _ ___,L..__.._ _ _,___ __.1. __ 1--_-1... 23' -t-_...... _ __ L..__.._ _ _,___ __.1. __ 1--_-1... 22' d' QLihue 22' d' QLihue 22' d' QLihue 22· d' QLihue H .,. Kahului H 21' 21' 21' 21' 'a .. 20' 20· 20· hio 20· 1cm 1cm km Koov 1cm 19' 19' 19' 19' 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 - - - - 18' -t----,---,,---,---,-----,---,----1- 18' -1---.--,--...---,--"""T--r--...J... 18' ;---.--r---.--~-~-----1- ·161' -160· -159' -158· -15r -156' -155' ,154· ·161' ·160' ·159' ·158' ·157' ·156' ·155' •154' ·161' -150• -159• -158' -15r -158" -155• .154· ·161' ·160' -159' ·158' ·157' ·156' ·155' ·154' (map1) • (map2) (map1) / (map2) (map1) • (map2) (map1) / (map2) -0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 -0.05 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 1.00 O.J3 0.50 0.67 0.80 0.90 0.95 I.OS 1.10 1.25 1.50 2.00 3.00 -0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 ·0.06 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.30 OAO 0.50 O.J3 0.50 0.67 0.80 0.90 0.95 1.05 1.10 1.25 1.50 2.00 3.00 Difference Ratio Difference Ratio West Flank Geometry Comparison South Flank Rate Model Comparison ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 40 ~nee for• changingwtNld 8. Ground Motion Models 1001 G G Abbreviation G eight S-7 B97 0.25 (PGA Al0 0.2 0.33 (0.2 } 0.5 (1 s} 0.2S (PGA} IA Abrahamson t al. (2014) 0.2 0.25 (PGA} 0.5 (PGA) oor et al. (2014 0.2 0.33 0.2 0.5 0.2 s al. (1997) S97 0.25 (PGA 0.5 (P A) Campb ozorgrua CB14 0.2 0.34 (0.2 } 0.5 (0.2 s) 2014 0.5 (1 s 1.0 (1 s iou and s (2014) 14 0.2 IA Al0 aldera 1.0 ubduction In 91 1.0 (PGA 0.2 1.0 (PGA, . on 2010 0.4 1 s) et al. (201S 0.2 Abrahamson et al 2016 0.4 ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 41 ~nee for• changingwtNld Ground Motion Comparison of Median Ground Motions used in the Hawaii NSHMs Models 0.2 s (M7.51 101 1 s (M7.SI • Comparison of average GMMs for shallow (blue), 10·3 .------~------~-~ 10~ ...o------~so--1-0_1_0_0 ______, deep (black), and caldera 10 50 70 100 collapse events (red) in Distance (km) Distance O ______i:,,.._. .. _.,.__,~ -__ :to ,_~-- 50 70 100 50 70 100 Distance (km) Distance O I --- Sh I ,, 2021 ---- ShaJlo. 200 --- C&ld!ra 2021 --- Deep 2021 - - - - 200; ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 42 ~nee for• changingwtNld (a) 2.0 1.5 From McNamara et a. (2020, BSSA) 'o l!! 1 a, .Q . I o.s .ii All tectonic .c A10 0 - l --- Shallow ~20 km C\ o.o Z06slab --- Deep >20 km £ i;j :::, -0.5 NGASslab "C ' ·.;; ~ Z06inter C -1.0 CtJ BCH12slab -156' -155.5· -155· ~"' Location and size of events in the ground motion database for Hawaii -1.5 NGASinter (a) 1.5 ASK14 0 . . -2.0 7 PGA 0.1 .0 CD 0 -•CD 0 0 a, .. 0 . .. 0 •or Period ~s.> CY14 6.5 •• •• .a'• • •• 0 2.0 (814 6 •• • • (c) 0 6 2065l•b J \ ~ 9 1Vl5 :E 5.5 - • ••o ome ae o CD o o W15 oo••• •••••-• • ••• • .• 0 1.5 ♦ ec: lib ,r o":ft••• .. • ... ., ~tgcr;, •• •ooo : •• • t,f\/06 0 'o BSSA14 5 - O CD e 00 e l!! ~ 1.0 / ' ! Z16slab en .Q 'F I 0.5 BCH12inter 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 vi ' .c Hypocentral distance (km) 0 AB03slab '~ ~ (b) 1.5 ! 0.0 - ~ . O Allunoan(2o10) Db .Q MV06 7 o 2018 Kilaueal8C'IOOic r-. 0 o 2018 KilaueaYOlcanic /\ - . Z16inter 6.5 \ ---- 6 AB03inter ;;;;___ ~ -- --- :E 5.5 " --- 0 ..• AM09inter 0 . -1.5 5 • 0 4.5 .... ♦ 2 3 4 s • -2.0'-- ...... ------'------~ • 0 • PGA 0.1 0 10.0 LLH Period (s) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 How well ground motion data in the database for Hawaii fit each HypocentraJdepth (km) Mean residuals of GMMs vs. data in the ground motion database for Hawaii GMM. This helped us select which GMMs to use in the model. M vs. depth of events in the ground motion database for Hawaii ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 43 ~nee for• changingwtNld MPM db (z<20 km) A10db 7 7.5 □ CID MS.3 40.3 km hv60508246 □ □ □ 102 6.5 7 6.5 CD □ □ □ □□ Dill □ CD □ 6 □ 6 □□ □ □ 1111D□ l~ :E 5.5 :E □ 11D 5.5 10° □ a □ □□ CD□ c □ a C) 5 CD ~ - □ 5 □ □ □ □ □ ~ □□ □ 4.5 □ □ □□ 11D 11D --<{ 4.5 □ □□ CD) Cl) □□ 4 □ □ 4 10-2 100 101 102 103 101 102 Rrup (km) Rrup (km) 7.5 7.5 • 10-4 ~~-~~~-~~~~-~~-~ •• 7 • 7 10-2 102 • 102 • ,, " 6.5 • 6.5 T (s) • I • • • 6 I • :a•I 6 (a) Shallow earthquakes (z<20 km) (b) Deep earthquakes (z>20 km) ~ 100 ~ ,oO .. • 5.5 • 5.5 -ASK14 -scHydro -BSSA14 Wong15 5 5 8 0.8 CB14 - Atkinson10 ,o·2 -cv14 4.5 ' 4.5 6 -Atkinson10 0.6 4 4 4 0.4 10 1 102 103 10 1 102 Rrup (km) Rrup (km) 2 0.2 ., ., 0 "'., 0 M vs. distance (Rrup) of events in our ground motion database for Hawaii vs. the A10 database. a: a: -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -1 -1 10·1 100 10·1 100 T (s) T (s) Residuals vs. period (T) for the shallow and deep GMMs we use in the 2021 model. ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 44 ~nee for• changingwtNld Ground Motion Model Sensitivities (weight of 1.0 for each model) • Shallow GMMs (A10 and NGA-West2) look similar, but sensitivities show high (e.g., ASK14) and low (e.g., BSSA14) contributors to hazard. • 0.2s comparisons of each shallow GMM (weight of 1.0) compared to weighted combination of shallow GMMs (all equally weighted; 0.2). Comparisonof 1 SecondTOlal Mean Hazard 101 Hawaii Coolpalisonof 02 SecondT Olal Mean Hazard lor Hawaii FaunSources: BSSA 14 GMM vs. ShallowGMMs Fau"Sources: ASK14 GMM vs. ShallowGMMs 2% in 50 Yea,sProbability of Exceedance, NEHRP Sile Class Bounda/y B/C (V 530 = 760m.ls) 2%1150 Yea,s Probability of Exceedance,NEHRP S!e ClassBoundary B/C (V 530= 760mis) ,,. ,,. +---'--...J....-....1...-....1...---'-- ..... ---4- ,,. +---'-- ...... ---'---'--_,.__ ....._ _._ 22' 22' ASK14 22' BSSA14 21· .,. 21 ,,. ,.. ,.. ,.. "" ,., .. .- ,., D- 10, ·1111 ·HIit -159' -151' •15T •IS6" •1S5' •154" BSSA14 GMM (map 1) ShallowGMMs (map 2) ASK14GMM (map 1) ShallowGMMs (map 2) 0.00 ODC 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.1~ 0.19 G.2& 0.35 G.4& 0.65 0.81 1 19 1.82 2.21 3.00 • 1 SecondSpectral Aoceleralion (g) 02 SecondSpectral AocelerabOn (g) ,,. +---'--...J....-....1...---'--_,._ _ _. _ _._ zr +---'---'----'----'- _ _._ _ _.__-+ zr +---'--...___....1..._....1..._....L.. _ _.__-+ ,,. +---'--...l..---'----'---.J.--'---+ 22' 22' 22' 22' ,, .,. 21' ,,. - Katut., ~ (map1 I • (map21 (map1) / (map2) (map1)- (map2) (map1) / (map2) 4$0 440 ,o.)11 ,0.20 -G.tO-0..QS 0.05 0,10 0.20 0:JO 0.40 OJ(I 0,33 0.S0 O.f7 0-«> 0-90 0.15 10$ 110 1.2$ 1.$0 1.00 100 .SO -0.40 -o.30 420 -010 oQ.0$ 0.05 0.10 0-20 G.30 0.40 0.50 OJ3 O.SO Of7 O.IO UO OtS I 05 1 10 12$ UO too lAO Difference Difference Ralio ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 45 ~nee for• changingwtNld Ground Motion Model Sensitivities (weight of 1.0 for each model) • 1s SA comparisons of each deep GMM (weight of 1.0) compared to weighted combination of deep GMMs (all equally weighted; 0.33) • Wong et al. 2015 (W15) is higher than the other two A10 BCHydro W15 Comparisonof 1 SecondTotal Mean Hazard for Hawaii Comparisonof 1Second Total Mean Hazard for Hawai Comparisonof 1 SecondTotal Mean Hazard for Hawai DeepGodded Sources: A10 GMM vs. Deep GMMs DeepGridded Sources: BCHydro12 GMM vs. Deep GMMs DeepGridded Sources: W15 GMM vs. DeepGMMs 2%in 50 YearsProbability of Exoeedance.NEHRP Site Class Boondary BIC (V 530= 760mis) 2%in 50 YearsProbability of Exoeedance.NEHRP She Class Boondary 8IC (V530 = 760mis) 2% in 50 YearsProbabi ily of Exceedance,NEHRP Site Class BoondaryBIC (V 530 =760 mis) Zl' 21' 22' 22' ~Ql.lhJo 22' 22' ~ c,u..e '12' 22' ~ c,u..e ,,. ,,. ,,. II' ,,. ,,. ~cl!:'.. ~~.. ~~.. ~,; ~,; .,. .,. .,. .,. .,. .,. .. .. ,,. .. Kv~,,. .. Kv~ .. ,,. ,..,..,,., ,,. ,,. Kv~ ,v v~ ,..,..,,., ,...... , ,..,..,,.,"" 0 V 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 -100 - ,r ..,.._---,--.....-----,---,----,,--,---t- ,r +---,--....,...- ...... ---,--,--.--+ ,r +--...--....,...---,.---,--,--.--+ ,,· ;----,--~---.----.--~--t- -1er -160' -1st· -1.sa- .,sr -156' -155' -1s-· A10 GMM (map 1) DeepGMMs (map 2) BCHydro12GMM (map 1) DeepGMMs (map 2) W15GMM (map 1) DeepGMMs (map 2) O.03 G.04 0.0& 0.08 0.10 0.14 Q.19 0.211 0.315 Q.'3 US O.M 1,19• 1.81 UI 100 0..03 004 G.05 0.08 0.10 Q.14 0.11 G.21 0.36 GA W 0.8S 111 IS 2.21 l(I) om QJ)4 o.~ o.os 0,10 0.14 0.11 tUl5 0.36 0,48 W o.• 111 U2 2.21 1(1) 1 SecondSped,af Accelerabon (g) 1 SecondSpeciral Acceleralion (g) 1 SecondSpeciral Acceleration (g) Zl' +-_ _.__....,__ _,__ _. _ _. _ ___...____ Zl' +-_ _.__....,__ _,__ _. _ _. _ ___...____ , .Lh,e 22' 22' , .lhle '12' 22' 22' 22' ~ ,,. 21' ... KahJlui ,,. 21· ~'D',; 21' 21· -:~ .. -:~ui 'D .,. .,. ,.. ,.. .,. .,, .. ,.. K~ K.~,,. .. .. ,,. .. 0- 100 0- ,oo 0- 100 K. 0- 100 0- 100 ,r +--...----,--~- ...... ---.---->- ,r ,r +--...----,-----,----,--,--.--+ ,.. +----,-----,----.----.--~-+ ,r +----,--~---.--.--.--~-+ ,.. +----,--~---.----.--~-+ ·111' .,.. •ISi' •ISi' •OST .,... ·156° .,.. (map1) • (map2) (map1) I (map2) (map1) • (map2) (map1) I (map2) (map1) • (map2) (map1) I (map2) ,0,$0 ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 46 ~nee for• changingwtNld 9. Site Effects Models • Compared linear site response models (VS30 scaling) for six western North America GMMs (except Wong et al. 2015) • Wong et al. (2011) measured VS30 at 22 stations using spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) on the Big Island; other stations assigned from USGS Global VS30 Map • VS30 range: 133–580 m/s • Did not explicitly consider effects of dominant site period • Many locations in Hawaii described as thin (0–18 m) residual soil overlying weathered to intact basalt (VS > 2 km/s) • strong impedance contrasts • Future work ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 47 ~nee for• changingwtNld 9. Site Effects Models Shallow Events (Z < 20 km), M 2: 4. 5, T = 0.2 s Shallow Events (Z < 20 km), M 2: 4.5, T = 1.0 s 8 0 N N ,--, ,--, VJ VJ -C: -C: :::, :::, C: ...- C: ...- ._. ._. C: C: 0 0 B 0 8 B 0 I.:: I.:: a.. 0 a.. E ... 0 E ... <( I <( I 0 Q) Q) u5- 0 Total Residuals for ASK14 u5- 0 To I Residuals for ASK14 N Binned Means for R iduals N Binned Means for Residuals I Site Tenns 0 I Site Tenns <1 Mean model 0 Mean model a- Models corr. to 760 mis 0 Models corr. to 760 mis o M 0 M I VS3O = 760 mis I VS3O = 760 mis 100 200 500 1000 2000 100 200 500 1000 2000 V s30[m/s] V s30[m/s] ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 48 ~nee for• changingwtNld 10. Risk Models (see Session #2) ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 49 ~nee for• changingwtNld Break (60 min) Please return at 3:00 pm MST (12:00 pm HST) for Session #2 It is OK to stay on the MS Teams call – just please turn off your camera and mute your microphone! ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 50 ~nee for• changingwtNld Preliminary Results (A. Shumway, 30 min) • Hazard Calculations • Ground Motion Maps • Hazard Curves • Uniform Hazard Response Spectra (UHRS) • Uncertainty Analysis • Disaggregations • Comparisons of Intensity Data for Honolulu (M. Petersen) ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 51 ~nee for• changingwtNld Hazard Calculations • Probabilistic seismic hazard calculations performed using the USGS computer code nshmp-haz (publicly available for download from GitHub; https://github.com/usgs/nshmp-haz). • Version of code and source model used for calculations will be publicly available for download at time of publication. • Results will be released for 22 periods, including PGA (0.01 to 10 s) and 8 NEHRP site classes (corresponding to VS30 values from 150 to 1500 m/s). • Results include hazard curves and uniform-hazard ground motion data interpolated from the hazard curves for 2, 5, and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (corresponding to 4.04 x 10-4, 1.03 x 10-3, and 2.1 x 10-3 annual rates of exceedance, respectively). • Results calculated on a 0.02o-latitude-by-0.02o-longitude grid (11,657 total sites). • Results will be available in the USGS ScienceBase Catalog. • A small subset of the results are presented here. ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 52 ~nee for• changingwtNld 23' 23' 0.11g 0.23g QLihue 22· (/J ou11ue 22' (/J 1.08g Honolulu~ 0.47g Honolu Rock Ground Motion 21' 0.35g ~D~ 21· 0.77g a 1.02g 20· 20' 2.45g Maps K km km 1.09g 19' 2.56g 19' ~ ~ 0 100 0 100 • Uniform-hazard ground 18' 18' motion maps for a soft rock ·161' ·160' ·159' ·158' .15r ·156' ·155' •154' •161' ·160' ·159' •158' ·15T ·156' ·155' ·154' site condition (V = 760 0.03 0.OI 0.06 0.08 0.10 0,14 0.19 026 0.35 o.,8 0.65 0.88 1.19 1.62 221 3.00 0.03 0.1)< 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.1' 0.19 0.26 0.35 0.48 0.65 0.88 1.19 221 5.00 S30 PeakGround Acceleration (g) 0.2Second Spectral Acceleration (g) m/s) 23' 23' 0.05g 0.01g ouhue ouhue 22' • PGA, 0.2, 1.0, and 5.0 s 22' (/J (/J 0.04g 0.27g H u H 21' • 2% in 50 years PE 21' 0.17g ~D~ 0.02g ~D~ a a 0.66g 20' 0.10g 20· • Hazard is highest on the Kooa km km 0.10g() 0.69g 19' 19• ~ ~ 0 100 Island of Hawai‘i and 0 100 19· 18' ·161' ·160' ·159' ·158' ·15T ·158' ·155' ·154' decreases to the northwest ·161' ·160' ·159' •158' ·15T ·156' ·155' ·154' 0,03 0.OI 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.14 0.19 0.26 0.35 0.48 0.65 0.88 1.19 1.62 221 3.00 0.03 0.OI 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.1' 0.19 026 0.35 0.48 0.65 0.88 1.19 1.62 221 3.00 5 SecondSpectral Acceleration (g) 1 SecondSpectral Acceleration (g) ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 53 ~nee for• changingwtNld 23' 23' 0.17g 0.39g Qlihue 22' (/J 22' (/J Quooe Q 0.64g 1.47g Soil Ground Motion Honolulu Honolulu 21' 21' Kahului 0.48g ~~ui 1.07g .... a • A 1.34g 3.13g Maps 20· 20' K K km 1.33g km 2.97g 19' 19' • Uniform-hazard ground 100 100 18' 18' motion maps for a ·161' ·160' ·159' ·!SB' ·15T ·156' ·tSS' -154' -161' ·160' -159' -tSB' -157' -156' ·ISS' ·15'1' medium-dense sand or stiff 0.00 0.04 0.06 1108 1110 1114 1119 0.26 0.35 0.48 0.65 0,88 1.19 1.62 221 3.00 0.00 0.04 0.06 1108 0.10 0.14 0.19 026 1135 0.◄ 8 0.65 0.88 1.19 1.62 221 5.00 clay site condition (VS30 = PeakGround Acceleration (g} 0.2Second Spectral Acceleration (g) 23· 23' 260 m/s) 0.15g 0.02g 22' Quhue 22' (/J Quooe (/J • PGA, 0.2, 1.0, and 5.0 s 0.11g 0.70g H~ H~ 21' 21' 0.45g ~ • Softer sites amplify ground m km 0.26g 1.60g 19' 19' 100 motions (up to a factor of 3 100 18' 18' -161' -160' -159' -tSB' -157' ·156' -tss· -15'1' at periods ≥ 1 s) compared -161' -160' ·159' -tSB' -157' -156' ·ISS' -ts-I' to soft rock sites 0.005 0.010 0.020 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.070 0.100 0.140 0.200 0.250 0-300 ll350 0.450 1.000 0.00 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0,14 0.19 026 0-35 1148 0.65 0.88 1.19 1.62 221 5.00 o.sso 1 SecondSpectral Acceleration (g} 5 SecondSpectral Acceleration (g} ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 54 ~nee for• changingwtNld Comparisonof 0.2 SecondTotal Mean Hazard for Hawaii Comparisonof 1 SecondTotal Mean Hazard for theHawaii 2021HI NSHMvs. 2001HI NSHM 2021HI NSHMvs. 2001HI NSHM Comparison Maps 2%in 50 YearsProbability of Exceedance,NEHRP Soft Rock Site Condition 2%in 50 YearsProbability of Exceedance,NEHRP Soft Rock Site Condition (a) 2.1· (a) !l. • Difference (2021 – 2001) and ratio (2021 ÷ Lihoe Lihoe 2001) comparison of the 2021 NSHM and n· tfJ tfJ HonokJlu HonokJu C:::::;;> Kahului the 2001 NSHM 21· ~ Kahului 21· ~ 'u • Uniform-hazard ground motion maps for a .. N soft rock site condition (VS30 = 760 m/s) • 0.2 and 1.0 s 19• 19 • 2% in 50 years PE -161' -160" •IS9' -15 -U7" -156" .,5,• •1.54" -161' -160' •IS9' .15s• •157" -156" -155" -154" Difference(2021 • 2001) Difference(2021 • 2001) • 0.2 s ground motions have mostly increased, while 1.0 s ground -0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.IO -005 005 0.10 0.20 O..lO 040 0.50 -0.20 ·0.15 -0.10 -005 -0.02 -0.01 O.ot 0.02 0.05 0 10 0 15 0.20 motions have mostly decreased (bl 23 (b) n Lihue 22· tfJ 22" I .Lihue Comparison of 2% in SO Years Probability of Exceedance for O.2s Ground Motions Site latitude longitude 2001 2021 Difference Ratio Ratio(%) HonokJlu HonokJlu C:::::;;> 21· 21· Kahulul Hilo 19.7 -155.06 1.8 2.45 0.65 1.36 36% 'u Kona 19.66 -156 2.43 2.56 0.13 1.05 5% " Kahului 20.9 -156.5 0.97 1.08 0.11 1.11 11% 20· 20· Honolulu 21.3 -157.86 0.61 0.77 0.16 1.27 27% Lihue 21.96 -159.36 0.25 0.23 -0.02 0.92 -8% Comparison of 2% in SO Years Probability of Exceedance for ls Ground Motions 19" 19" Site latitude longitude 2001 2021 Difference Ratio Ratio(%) Hilo 19.7 -155.06 0.77 0.66 -0.11 0.86 -14% 18" 18' Kona 19.66 -156 0.92 0.69 -0.23 0.75 -25% -161' -160' -1:w· •15 -1.sr -1.16' -155' -154' -161" -160· .1S9· -15 .,.sr -1.16' .155· -154' Kahului 20.9 -156.5 0.25 0.27 0.02 1.08 8% Ratio(2021 / 2001) Ratio(2021 / 2001) Honolulu 21.3 -157.86 0.18 0.17 -0.01 0.96 -4% Lihue 21.96 -159.36 0.07 0.05 -0,02 0.76 -24% 0.JJ 0.SO 0.67 0.80 0.90 0.'>5 1.05 J.IO l.:!5 1.50 2.00 J.00 0.JJ 0.50 0.67 O.~ 0.90 O.Q5 1.05 1.10 1.25 1.50 l.00 3.(W> ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 55 ~nee for• changingwtNld Total Mean Hazard Comparison -0.2s - NEHRP Stte Class BC (V s,o = 760 mis) 2021 NSHM (solid lines) vs. 2001 NSHM (dashed lines) !-Hilo--Kona [ --Kahulul --Honolulu Hazard Curves --uhue • Comparison of the 2021 NSHM (solid lines) and the 2001 NSHM (dashed lines) ~. -, SOYears • Uniform-hazard ground motion ,~ ,~ maps for a soft rock site 0.2 Second Spectral Acceleration (g) Total Mean Hazard Comparison - 1s - NEHRP Stte Class BC (V sso = 760 mis) condition (VS30 = 760 m/s) 2021 NSHM (solid lines) vs. 2001 NSHM (dashed lines) 1 -H1lo 11 --Kona • 0.2 and 1.0 s 1--Kahulu, --Honolulu uhue • 2% in 50 years PE l • At 0.2 s, hazard at all sites, except Līhu’e, increase 1 • At 1.0 s, hazard at all sites, except Kahului, decrease 1• 10· 1 10° 1 Second Spectral Acceleration (g) ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 56 ~nee for• changingwtNld Uniform Hazard Response Spectra (UHRS) Hilo, HI (19.7, -155.06) 2% in 50 Years UHRS 2.5 2 Shallow GMMs 1.5 1 Hilo, HI (19.7, -155.06) 0.5 2% in 50 Years UHRS 4 0 • Deep GMMs appear to be 0.01 0.05 0.1 0.5 1 5 10 3 Period (s) Hilo, HI (19.7, -155.06) 2 2% in 50 Years UHRS controlling the shape of the 4 1 3 0 0.01 0.05 0.1 0.5 1 5 10 Deep GMMs Period (s) spectra at many sites 2 5% in 50 Years UHRS 1 0 0.01 0.05 0.1 0.5 1 5 10 Period (s) Kailua Kona, HI (19.66, -156) Honolulu, HI (21.3, -157.86) 2% in 50 Years UHRS 2% in 50 Years UHRS 4 1 3 0.8 2 0.6 0.4 1 t: ~j 0.2 t -~-j 0 0 0.01 0.05 0.1 0.5 1 5 10 0.01 0.05 0.1 0.5 1 5 10 Period (s) Period (s) Kahului, HI (20.9, -156.5) Lihue, HI (21.96, -159.36) 2% in 50 Years UHRS 2% in 50 Years UHRS 2 0.5 0.4 1.5 0.3 1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0 0 0.01l:~ 0.05 0.1 0.5 1 5 10 0.01l!~J 0.05 0.1 0.5 1 5 10 Period (s) Period (s) 5% in 50 Years UHRS 5% in 50 Years UHRS ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 57 ~nee for• changingwtNld Uncertainty Analysis Comparison of 0.2s SA Shallow Non•Summij Nt Logic Tree Branches f 3Comparison of 0.2s SA Shallow Non•SI.A'TlmitGMM Logic Tree Branches for Honolulu -AID c::::J-ASK•• BSSA14 -CB14 2.5 2.5 lr=='icv14 • When reporting results, it is important to report (and understand) the uncertainties associated with the model 0.5 o '-..__.L-....1....----1J.1...1J..__...L- _ _..L_.W.i1..1,I.IIII.L.J.A.IL---'--~L_jLi...J 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.2s Spectral Acceleration (g) 0.2s Spectral Acceleration (g) • We have performed an f<>mparison ol 0.2s SA Shallow Non-Summit Rate Model Logic Tree Branches for HIio Comparison of 0 2s SA South Flank Geometry Logic Tree Branchesfor HIio -Klein I 1--19591 -Updated uncertainty analysis to -Post-1959 0.9 2.5 show the contribution to total mean hazard from each of the logic tree branches 02 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 0.2s Spectral Acceleration(g) 0.2s Spectral Acceleration(g) ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 58 ~nee for• changingwtNld 0.2 Second Disaggregation (Honolulu) Source Contribution to 0.2s TotalMean Hazardat Honolulu, HI (21.3, -157.86) 1.00E+00 ■ & = (-oo.. -2.5) Total ■ & = [-2.5 .. -2) Grid .... ■ & = [-2 .. -1.5) &=[-1.5 .. -1) Fault ■ & = [-1 .. -0.5) □ & = [-0.5 .. 0) Disaggregation Contributors: □ & = [O.. 0.5) 1.00E-01 & = [0.5 .. 1) Shallow – Non-Summit (66%) ■ & = [1 .. 1.5) ■ & = [1.5 .. 2) Deep – Non-Summit (34%) ■ & = [2 .. 2.5) . ■ & = [2.5 .. +oo) •• • • • •• • 1.00E-02 •• • • • . . . . • ...... • . . . . Annual Frequency of Exceedance Exceedance of Frequency Annual . . . . 1.00E-03 2% in 50 Years PE 1.00E-04 0.01 0.1 1 0.2 Second Spectral Acceleration (g) ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 59 ~nee for• changingwtNld 0.2 Second Disaggregations (Hilo) ■ € = (-oo .. -2.5) ■ e = [-2.5 .. -2) ■ e = [-2 .. -1.5) € = [-1.5 .. -1) □ € = [-1 .. -0.5) □ € = [-0.5 .. 0) □ e = [O·· 0.5) ....0 □ e = [0.5 .. 1) C ■ e = [1 .. 1.5) :80 ■ e = [1.5 .. 2) Disaggregation Contributors: ::J T"" .0 ·;::.... ■ € = [2 .. 2.5) South Flank (16%) C: ■ € = [2.5 .. +oo ) 0 Deep – Non-Summit (52%) OlO 0 0 • Deep – Summit (~15%) • • Shallow – Summit (~10%) •• ••• •• •• . • •• • •• ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 60 neefor• changingwtNld 1 Second Disaggregations (Honolulu) ■ e:= (-oo.. -2.5) ■ e:= [-2.5 .. -2) I!) T""" ■ e:= [-2 .. -1.5) Disaggregation Contributors: ~ ■ e:= [-1.5 .. -1) cu 0 e:= [-1 .. -0.5) Shallow – Non-Summit (61%) ~ ::r: 0 e:= [-0.5 .. 0) 00 0 e:= [O .. 0.5) Deep – Non-Summit (39%) ... T""" C e:= [0.5 .. 1) 0 .:; ::, ■ e:= [1 .. 1.5) ..c ·;;::... ■ e:= [1.5 .. 2) Cl!) ■ e:= [2 .. 2.5) 0 0 ■ e; = [2.5 .. +oo) ~ • •• • . • . • • • • • • • • • •• • • •• • • •••••• • .• • . .. • • . •• • • • • • • • ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 61 ~nee for• changingwtNld 1 Second Disaggregations (Hilo) ■ € = (-00 •• -2.5) ■ E = [-2.5 .. -2) ■ e = [-2 .. -1.5) 0 C\J €=[-1.5 .. -1) "E □ e = [-1 .. -0.5) ((I □ e = [-0.5 .. 0) ~U') I,- □ e = [O.. 0.5) □ e = [0.5 .. 1) C ■ € = [1 .. 1.5) 2o::,..- ■ E = [1.5 .. 2) ..c ·;::: ■ € = [2 .. 2.5) +-' C ■ E = [2.5 .. +oo) Disaggregation Contributors: 0 • ()u, • South Flank (24%) 0 0 •• • Deep – Non-Summit (40%) • • ••• • • • ••• • Shallow – Summit (~13%) • • ... • ..·· ..·· •• . Deep – Summit (~15%) • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Shallow – Non-Summit (~2%) • • • • • • • • • • • • ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 62 ~nee for• changingwtNld Comparison of Intensity Data for Honolulu • Cox (1986) indicates that 113 earthquakes were felt between 1859 and 1986 (127 years) in Honolulu and that the highest intensities during this time were from the 1871 Lāna’i earthquake with intensity between VI and VII (MMI 6.5 ± 0.7) and the 1948 O’ahu earthquake which generally had intensity of VI but probably intensities of VII in a couple areas near Honolulu that may have been modified by site effects (MMI 6.0 ± 0.7; Cox, 1986, 1987). We are not aware of any larger intensities since 1986. • We convert MMI to PGA using equations by Worden et al. (2012) and Wyss and Koyanagi (1992a) for comparison with our PGA map. • The PGA hazard curve for a 100-year return period indicates ground shaking of about 20% g and the values for a 500-year return period indicates ground shaking of about 30% g for a firm rock site condition (VS30 = 760 m/s). • The ground motion hazard values could double for soft soils making these observations generally consistent with the 50%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50-year hazard values. V VI VII VIII Exceedances in 13 3 1 0 120 years PGA: Worden et 6.2%g 12%g 22%g 40%g al. (2012) (% g) PGA: Wyss and 13-20% g 20-32%g 32-51% g 51-80% g Koyanagi, 1992a (% g) ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 63 ~nee for• changingwtNld Products and Discussion (90 min) • Scenarios and Risk Assessment (K. Jaiswal) • Building Code (S. Rezaeian) • Web Tools (P. Powers) ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 64 ~nee for• changingwtNld Hawaii Earthquake Scenarios, Potential Losses and Risk By Kishor Jaiswal, Doug Bausch, and Mark D. Petersen ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 65 ~nee for• changingwtNld Tue Nov 17 11:23 Jalswal, Kishor Q. 0 ·- Hawaii Legacy Catalog Hawaii 20 of 20 earthquakes in map area. ., Click for more information M a.o Sanarto EarthquaU • Kau •.• Legacy ■ tMEGACV 10.0 lf.m M a.o Sun1rio EarthquaU • Sou ... HYLEGACV JOOl..m ·■ 0 0 ShakeMap M 7.7 Scenario Earthqu1b • Kala ..• '■ HVlEGACY 10.0 km • M 7.0 Scenario Earthquake- Hon ••• YID Scenario tMEGACY 42.0 km M 7,0 Scenario Earthquake- K.lof... tMEGACY 10.0km M 7.0 Scenario Earthquake• kau ••• Catalog HVlEGACY 10.0km 0 M 7.0 Scenario Earthquake• Kita ••• tM.EGACY 10.0km M 7.0 scenario Earthquake -lln ••• • tM.EGACV 30.0 km • HI Legacy Scenario Catalog: By Paul Okubo, D. Wald, and HETAC • 20 Eqs (M6-M8) • Potential for improvement in fault delineation or depth constraints • Archaic GMPEs (not consistent with 2021 HI Model) ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 66 ~nee for• changingwtNld M7.7 Kalapana Nov 29, 1975 HAWAII HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES (19.340°N 155.000°W, CR/SIH.EARlliQIW3 =~· .M7J>..7.9 Pacific • M65-6.'J Octa11 e M6.0-6.4 10 km deep) MAHI\£!All1lQW ■ Ean.hquake F,1utt ~upturo lllo Aron Total damage $4–4.1 million Max. intensity VIII (Severe) Tsunami 14.3 m (47 ft) Pacific Fatalities 2 dead ..... Ocea11 ------!5!4/18----....i Injuries 28 injured M6.9, 7.2 155°W 1s4°w 1s3°w USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 67 EanhquakeoYellow USAID EUSGS Shaking Alert "°1M--.cANfllla'U M 7.7, Hawaii region, Hawaii ~~111-""·-1•~.:1~-~1:,~~ev~;~:.:~:40loeal),___,,______~ Estimated Fatalities 100 lUOO 100 10. 53k 8k IEBTlMATm IIOOtFIED IIERCAUJ IIITDIIITT 11-111 IV V VI VII VII .....,.,...,....,._ Nol felt Weak Light Moderate S1nJng Very Slrong Violent Extreme IINlota,. None None None V. Light Ught Moderate Mod/Heavy Heavy V. Heavy l'OTDITIAL -· -· ·-"'- None None None Light Moderate ModJHeavy Heavy V. Heavy V. Heavy • "" tnxn l.andlaM S1ructuru CNeral, the pop (\ITC)1975-11-29 (km)17 S.8 IM(#)Vll(Skl -· 1973-04-26 69 6.2 V11(7.il) Recente~ i,i ifiisarea have cau!ledsec ondary hazards such as tsunamis and land 19.8"N the1 might hava oontribuled to lossaL \1111Fem- VIII -.v- VII H8W'Mlf1Acrn VII Ledanl E118105 VII Leilani E118tK VI HIio Ill Kallua II Honolulu Ill Walpahu 0 IO HG Z4CI Ill Peart Chy PAGERcontent ii aUllomalicallygenerilled, and Of't/oonlidetl loun 4'8 101trUC1Ural daJnas,t. tdddllnappewon ~ Umllalionootlrc,ut- lllllidngNllmotN. and ION,__ odd .....nalnt,. -~- ...... -q .... _.,,,__,_,_...... , Evtd Ill! h1171502! ~10-100 Mil USD of economic damage/loss is possible, but the impact should be relatively localized. Although there is a low likelihood of widespread fatalities, some casualties are still likely. USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 68 Earthquake Orange USAID EUSGS Shaking Alert Earthquake Orange USAID EUSGS Shaking Alert natM~flDPII M 7.0, Lanai PAGER I MJo,~i!~~!ook>c:al) M 7.5, Lanai Mr£Scenarlo PAGER l.Dcalioft: 20.8000• N 167.IXIIX)•W Depth: 30.0 km Version 2 I 09?1111111► 'ITC(Ne1':0000k>c:al) • n:: . " 1. WDeplh:30.0km Version 1 Estimated Fatalities Orange alert for economic loaaeL Signifi Estimated Economic Losses fOATSUHAMIIHFOAMA~ SEE:-1. DY cant damage Is hly and lhe dis..ter le po EstimatedFatalities Orangealert for economic loaaeL Signifi EstimatedEconomic Losses lenlialy wldaspeed. Eatlmelad economic cant damageIs ll 22k 3k 115k 11-111 IV V VI VII VII EBTIIIATED IIIOOIFIED IIEIICAUJ..,,-YY 11-111 IV V VI VII PEIICEl¥ED- Nol felt Weak Light Modef8le Stmng Very Slrnng Violent Exlrema Nol !alt Weak Light Modef&le Strong Very Slrnng Violent Ex1nlme ...... 111 PEJICEJYED-- None None None V. Ughl Light Moderate Mod.Meavy Heavy V.Heavy ...... ,.. None None None V.Ught Ughl Mode Recent earthcpll Selected City Exposure Selected City Exposure .. a---, -~-c Po ladon -c VII Ka onapall lk VII KaanapaM lk VIIKaunakakal 31< VII Kaunalulkal 31< VII Kaanapall l.ardng 2k VII Lahatna 12k VII Lahabla 12k Vii Kaanapai Larm,g 2k VII ~u 2k VI Kualapuu 2k VI KaJtua 390< V Ka,lua 39k V1 Honolulu 372k Y Honolulu 3nk VI Peat1City 481< .... V Pearl City 481< uo VI Weipahu 381( V Waipahu IV HIio t3k 0 150 38k IV HIio t3k bold dliH IJIPN'"on map. (hxtOOD) PAGERCCll'llel'l1 i& •ul0""8tiUllf gitMraled, aindott, OONidtrs louet dJt 10 &trldllraildaJnaait. Umilllionoof l"""-"'oNr,gol1lmo!N, and uncer11intY, ht1p:11Nrti.,,u.u-..,.d-1 ---add musGs USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 69 stMttCe far• thang,ng world FEMA P366 Annualized Loss Estimates All values are in thousands of dollars Using Hawaii 2021 (v11) Capital Stock Income Loss Total (Str, Nonstr, Content, (Reloc, wages etc.) Inventory etc.) Kalawao 8 1 9(16) Maui 13,822 2,013 15,835(12,480) Honolulu 37,645 5,214 42,859(39,780) Hawaii 68,877 9,643 78,520(54,124) Kauai 181 28 209(423) Total 137,432(106,824) New results show an increase (~28%) from $107M (FEMA P366, 2017: # shown in parenthesis) to $137M statewide to average annualized loss (AAL). ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 70 ~nee for• changingwtNld Updates to 2020 NEHRP Design Ground Motions Outside of Conterminous US (OCONUS): ,... ,.,. .... ,.,. ,... ,,. 1i, Ill" ,... ,,.. ,,.. ,.,. ,,.. ,,.. ,.... • No updates were available r_.,..,...______., zr ,e, for USGS hazard models ------·-"" ,,. • a ,.. (or deterministic C Northern 11' HI Mariana calculations) .. Islands ,.. .,. Hawaii.... '"' _____.,______-·------:..-:--.:ia-=:~-...---~. - "' • We updated BC Ss & S1 AK ,r 100 0 100 Miles 11' using the “Site-Specific 100 0 100 Kilometers Alaska ,r s,,, 11' Procedures, Ch21” of 2020 n:'' -,.. ~swains Island NEHR: RTGM, maxdir ...... I! ,.. 16' ,r IZ' INorthern American Mariana MAIORCO Samoa Islands • We estimated MPRS (no p«TUttlAU.t+ -,. "',~"'.,...... IS' "' IS' f!,NIP,.OlljN)QOuj ,,. ,,. t(.~i'l'Jt::' ., site amplifications in 2020 PRVI 'Jo-.- ,r.. GNMI =~:~•=loi'r: AMSAM.. . J Puerto Rico & .... «VILCI.II.• ,.. Guam & Northern,.. NEHRP), using FEMA P- IP,.0 .,.._U,t) " "1•· 010$01ll ...... ,,_ .,,. ··- TutuilaAmerican oru,./ us 2078 Virgin.. Islands.,. l',MTIO:,_r,. I 'Aunu·u li\l R... - Mariana Islands AIDII-...... __ ! Samoa Guam 4' 13' 13' Ii IS' ,,. s,,, s,., s,,,, ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 71 ~nee for• changingwtNld Updates to SS & S1 for BC Site Class: • No updates were available • No max-direction update for HI for USGS hazard models • Updates to risk-targeted calculations: (or deterministic β updated from 0.8 to 0.6 (HI AK PRVI) calculations) minor prob. updates: interp HI, trunc, etc. • Correction of det. caps: 84th% factor from 1.5 to 1.8 r " • We updated BC Ss & S1 Maxdir Maxdir Total Total Regions: using the “Site-Specific ΔSs ΔS1 ΔSs ΔS1 .... Procedures, Ch21” of 2020 ~ HI (1998) 0% 0% ~ -15% -15 to 0% NEHR: RTGM, maxdir \.. ~ AK (2007) 10% -5% 0 to +25% 0 to +25% • We estimated MPRS (no PRVI (2003) 10% -5% -5 to +10% ~ -15% site amplifications in 2020 GNMI (2012) 10% -5% ~ +10% ~ -5% NEHRP), using FEMA P- 2078 AMSAM (2012) 10% -5% > +10% varies ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 72 ~nee for• changingwtNld Estimating MPRS, SMS & SM1: • No updates were available for USGS hazard models Developed Generic Spectral Shapes: (or deterministic calculations) functions of (SS, S1, TL) -o-A --¢-B • We updated BC Ss & S1 1.25 -&-BC SS = 1 § -o-C using the “Site-Specific -o-CD 1.00 -0-D Procedures, Ch21” of 2020 Proceduresfor Develop· -&-DE 0.75 NEHR: RTGM, maxdir Multi-Period Response Spectraat Non-Conte Q) V) C • We estimated MPRS (no United StatesSites g_ 0.25 V) Q) site amplifications in 2020 0::: FEMAP-2078/ June2020 o.ooL----~------=~~~g 0.01 0.10 1.00 10 00 NEHRP), using FEMA P- Response Period (seconds) 2078 .FEMA ~ ...... ---,....---.------~ -""'""""""'-"' Figure B-17. Plots of probabilistic response spectrum shape parameters (RSSPs) by site class for Table B-17. GTL12S3R2. ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 73 ~nee for• changingwtNld Estimating MPRS, SMS & SM1: 2.00 1.00 ~ B-DR ~A TL = 4 s -Ir- BC-DR 1.75 ~B Prob. Ss = 0.578g S1 = 0.168g ~ C-DR ,-.. -tr-BC -0- CD-DR Det. Ss = 1.5g S1 = 0.6g ~ -o-C 1.50 ~ D-DR C 0.75 0 -Ir- DE-DR :;:::; ~co Response Spectral Acceleration (g) (g) Acceleration SpectralResponse C Irvine, CA 0 Honolulu, HI c.. 0.25 V) (validation) Q) (prediction) 0::: matching to updated 1998 Ss & S1 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Response Period (seconds) Response Period (seconds) Solid Lines: Predicted values from Ss & S1 Dashed Lines: Exact values calculated from 2018 NSHM ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 74 ~nee for• changingwtNld Spectral Shape = f(TL , SS , SS /S1): Figure 3.2-1 from Crouse et al. (2006) Corner 2.00 Magnitude ~A Period, T TL = 12 s (M ) Range c (seconds) 1.75 ~B Prob. Ss = 2.2g S1 = 0.8g 6.0 - 6.5 4 .,...._ ~BC Det. Ss = 1.5g S1 = 0.6g 6.5 - 7.0 6 9 ~c C 1.50 7.0 - 7.5 8 0 ·.;::; ~co 7.5 - 8.0 12 ....Cll ~D 8.0 - 8.5 16 Q) 1.25 ai ~DE 8.5 - 9.0+ 20 (.) (.) <( 1.00 "r----r----=------i---i'------, ro.... (.) -Q) 0.75 C. (/) Q) (/) 0.50 C Hilo, HI 0 C. (/) 0.25 (prediction) Q) 0::: matching to updated 1998 Ss & S1 0.00 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100 lll)K ResponsePeriod (seconds) 100 KIOme!Hl FIGURE 22-16 Mapped Long-Period Transition Period, TL {s}, for Hawaii ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 75 ~nee for• changingwtNld Software and Web Tools A H..an!Q.irw l musGs . ',, 1CIN'Cf'lW.fC.,,,M1W'l}A'ffi£1 -+ ► 1'j ·. j Earthquake Hazards Program l _, ....-..i.li,..,, 1e,u--,...... ,._, ~""•""'!ti Pleasedo not use this tool to obt<1inground motion paramete< values for the design code referencedocuments coverfd by the U 5 Seismic0f5ign Ma~ (e.g .• the International Building Code and theA.SCE7 or41 Standard). Thevatues returned • nshmp-haz by the two applicationsare not identical. Hazards v Earthquake Hazard and Probability Maps • nshmp-haz-ws Data& Products Learn v Input Monitoring v Hazard Curve Research v Oeaggregation Surch v History QJe:rtJO!lSOICIYnfflfflb' ■ ,=(~ .. 2.S) Unified Hazard Tool ■ c=[-2.5 .. -2) ••=1·2 .. -1.5) ■ <•[-1.5 .. I) "'-donotuMltfttoOlll0otuiflpaundmodclnp.-vllllftlorlMdtil11"1code~docllfflffltS~l)rlhe US Senmec:Qncn HfPtwthll!Ob(~thelnttmllllonalWldlrcc.od9'wlthlA.SCfTor4lsundard). TM....aimmurMd ■ ••[·l..-0.5) bylhttwo~-notlcltfttlul 0 ,-[-0.5 .. 0) 0 t-(0 .. 0.5) ■ t=[0.5 .. 1) ■ ,•(J..1.5) ■ t•[l,S .. 2) .. ••=[2 .. 2.5) ., ■ i={2.5 .. +oo) https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/interactive/ ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 76 ~nee for• changingwtNld Software and Web Tools -"' .. ._IC..,._}9' ,.. •• .,... • k1I ••• < Gl A A (l localhost • UHT v2 B Dashboard -··---··__ , __ • aws ------__,,_,.... _ NSHM Hazard Curves Disaggregation ---·--"-- ------~;;-----·----·-- Ground Motion Vs. Distance Ground Motion Vs. Magnitude ,,__ Response Spectra Exceedance Explorer a ...... ~ ------·----·It ___ _.. - Data Mapping Services -·----·-----·-- -·----- r I NSHMP on AWS: Submit Jobs :- I... - .. a ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 77 ~nee for• changingwtNld [ ••• < [] '1 A A localhost C 151 Software and Web Tools NSHM Hazard Curves loealhost:8080/n5hmp-haz-wt/deagg/E2021/Hlf• 15 .•. + Model Plots and Reports Data Dynamic: Hawaii 2021 {unknown) Compon,nt -Hawaii Total LoogitudeM -155.06 r ••• II] Q A A localhost C MMdMfi ::, localhoJ1;8080/nshmp·ha2-wl/dea,gg/E2021/Hl/•15 lalll:ude(") 19.7 • UHT v2 ■ £•(- .. -2.5) ■ t•!-2.s .. -2) V,30 ■ t•j-2 .. -1.5) ■ t•[-1.5 .. -1) USGSSearch ~USGS 760 mis (8/C boundary) ■ t•{-1 .. --0.5) science for a changing world t•[--0.5 .. 0) tsj0 .. 0,5) Intensity Measu111Type ■ t•[0.5 .. 1) • 1.00 Second Spectral Acceleration ■ £-(1 .. 1.5) 2) aws ■ t-(1.5 .. NSHM Hazard Curves Disaggregation ■ t•l2 .. 2.SJ ReturnPeriocltfears) ■ £•[2.5 .. -, 2% in 50 years 2475 Ground Motion Vs. Distance Ground Motion Vs. Magnitude Response Spectra Exceedance Explorer Data Mapping Services NSHMP on AWS: Submit Jobs NSHMP on AWS: Check Jobs Servicecans Summary statistics for, Disaggregation : Total -■•••- ·Zit •••f-,1■ 1•[.ZI.•• -a D01PfMl Total Grid ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 78 ~nee for• changingwtNld Discussion Topics 1. Catalog 2. Declustering Models 3. Earthquake Rates Models 4. Mmax Models 5. Smoothing Models 6. Caldera Collapse and Volcanic - Earthquake Correlation Model 7. Faults/décollements Model 8. Ground Motion Models 9. Site Effects Models 10. Results 11. Risk and Scenarios 12. Building Code 13. Software and Web Tools ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 79 ~nee for• changingwtNld USGS Hawaii Hazard Model Timeline • Hawaii Workshop #1 - University of Hawaii at Manoa (September 18, 2019) • HETAC Briefing (September 11, 2020) • Hawaii Workshop #2 – Virtual (November 18, 2020) • Review – HETAC, USGS Steering Committee, USGS internal review, scientific meeting presentations, Public comment (November, December 2020) • Submit paper to Earthquake Spectra and peer review (December 2020 - June 2021) • Present reviewed model to HETAC, Seismological Society of America, public release of product (Summer or Fall, 2021) ~USGS USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 80 ~nee for• changingwtNld Adjourn USGS Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2 November 18, 2020 81 ~nee for• changingwtNld