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THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO FACING REVOLUTIONARY REALITIES: UNDERSTANDING HIGH-INTENSITY STATE SPONSORSHIP OF NON-STATE ACTORS A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE DIVISION OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE BY KATHRYN ANN LINDQUIST CHICAGO, ILLINOIS DECEMBER 2017 Table of Contents Abstract v Acronyms vii List of Tables viii List of Figures x Acknowledgements xi Part I: Explaining HISS 1 Chapter 1: Introduction 2 HISS: More is Different 4 The Landscape: Preoccupations in the Existing Literature 10 Summary of the Revolutionary Realities Theory 15 Research Design and Methodology 17 Summary of Findings 23 Contributions 25 Plan of the Dissertation 26 Chapter 2: Revolutionary Realities: A Theory of High Intensity State 32 Sponsorship of Non-State Actors Introduction 32 Review of Literature: Two Competing Explanations 36 The Revolutionary Realities Theory of HISS 50 Joint Necessity of the Conditions for HISS Adoption 76 Conclusion 84 Part II: Quantitative Evidence 86 Chapter 3: The Patterns and Causes of HISS: Introducing the State Patterns 87 of Foreign Sponsorship Dataset Introduction 87 HISS in the SPFS Dataset 89 Entry Type 114 International Revolutionary Ideology 120 Barriers to Conventional Military Operations Abroad Against Rivals 133 Causal Conditions and HISS Outcomes: A Medium-N Study 142 Conclusion 152 Chapter 4: Revolutionary Realities vs. Alternative Explanations: Statistical 155 Analysis with the State Patterns of Foreign Sponsorship Dataset Introduction 155 Hypotheses: Revolutionary Realities and the Alternatives 157 Methodology 165 Results and Discussion: RR Single Factors and Alternative Explanations 172 Results and Discussion: The Revolutionary Realities Theory, Triple-Interactions 188 Conclusion: Evaluating the Hypotheses 204 ii Part III: Case Study Evidence 211 Chapter 5: Case Selection, Evidence, and Sources for Qualitative Analysis 212 Case Overviews 212 Case Selection Logics 214 What Constitutes Evidence? 223 Sources 227 Chapter 6: Non-Institutionalized Entry and HISS Adoption in Iran and 231 Sudan Introduction 231 Iran and HISS: Congruency of Necessary Conditions and HISS Outcome 234 Non-Institutionalized Entry and Domestic Political Process in Iran 251 Revolutionary Realities in Sudan 264 Conclusion: The Role of Entry Type in HISS Adoption 279 Chapter 7: Ideology and Sponsorship Patterns in the People’s Republic of 282 China and Democratic Kampuchea Introduction 282 China and HISS: Congruency of Necessary Conditions and HISS Outcome 286 Marxism, Maoism, and (Inter)National Liberation as Revolutionary Ideology 298 Democratic Kampuchea: National Chauvinism and Non-Adoption of HISS 313 Conclusion 335 Chapter 8: HISS and Barriers to Conventional Military Operations Abroad 337 in Cuba Introduction 337 Cuba and High-Intensity State Sponsorship Adoption: A Classic Case 341 The Cuban Angolan Operation: When Barriers to Conventional Operations Fall 379 Conclusion: HISS as International Relations 392 Part IV: Extensions and Limitations 398 Chapter 9: HISS Miss: Nicaragua and Non-Adoption of Sponsorship under 399 the Sandinistas Introductions 399 Revolutionary Realities Conditions and HISS Outcome 403 Why Not HISS: Accounting for HISS Non-Adoption in Nicaragua 420 Conclusion: Future Development of the RR Theory 442 Chapter 10: Conclusion 449 Triangulating Conclusion on Revolutionary Realities and Patterns of HISS 449 Adoption Additional Patterns within the Case Studies 456 HISS in the United States: What the Revolutionary Realities Theory Can Reveal 464 Final Thoughts and Directions for Further Research 474 iii Appendix A: Codebook for the State Patterns of Foreign Sponsorship 478 Database Appendix B: Supplementary Materials for Chapter 3 486 Appendix B.1 HPTG List 486 Appendix B.2 Dependent Variable Specifications and Resultant Observation 487 Summaries Appendix B.3 Additional HISS Internal Validity Assessments 490 Appendix B.4 HISS and Entry Type Coding Notes and Alternative Specifications 491 Appendix B.5 Constructing the International Revolutionary Ideology Scores 493 Appendix B.6 Full Text of the Preamble to the Constitution of Algeria 496 Appendix B.7 Results from Alternative Measures of Ideology Score and HISS 498 Appendix B.8 Constitution Scores Over Time 500 Appendix B.9 Barriers Measures and Alternative HISS Specification 503 Appendix B.10 Non-HISS Years 504 Appendix B.11: Ideology Measurements and South America 505 Appendix C: Supplementary Materials and Robustness Checks for Chapter 4 506 Appendix C.1 Robustness for International Revolutionary Ideology Score 506 Appendix C.2 Robustness and Alternative Specifications for Entry 508 Appendix C.3 Robustness and Alternative Specifications for Democracy 510 Appendix C.4 Robustness and Alternative Specifications for Barriers to 511 Conventional Operations Abroad Appendix C.5 Alternative Capabilities and Capabilities Ratios Test 513 Appendix C.6 Alternative DV and Model Specifications for Revolutionary 515 Realities Triple Interactions (4 Groups+ and No HPTG) Appendix C.7 Alternative DV and Model Specifications for Revolutionary 517 Realities Triple Interactions (5 Year Periods Group Counts) Appendix C.8 Alternative Specification for the Barriers measure in RR Triple 519 Interaction Models Appendix C.9 Duration Dependence in HISS Observations 522 Appendix C.10 Hazard Model Robustness Checks 523 Appendix C.11 Duration Dependence and Testing the Proportional Hazard 525 Assumption Appendix C.12 Hazard Model with Correction for Non-Proportional Ideology 527 Score References 528 Supplementary Materials in External Files (available online) State Patterns of Foreign Sponsorship Dataset (Leader-Year) State Patterns of Foreign Sponsorship Dataset (Country-Year) iv Abstract States that sponsor non-state armed actors as a central pillar of their foreign policy have long had an out-sized impact on global affairs, but academic research has rarely studied this distinct pattern of state sponsorship. This dissertation asks the question, “Under what conditions do states adopt a policy of high-intensity sponsorship of armed non-state actors (HISS)?” The project identifies HISS states as those that have sponsored a) numerous foreign groups b) groups outside the state’s region and c) highly terroristic groups in particular. I argue that HISS constitutes a unique pattern of state sponsorship that is associated with a distinct set of causal factors and mechanisms which are, as yet, not well understood in the academic literature. This dissertation offers a novel account of HISS adoption, the Revolutionary Realities theory. Drawing from the international relations literature on individual state-group linkages and the comparative politics literature on political revolutions, I contend that three, jointly necessary and mutually-reinforcing causal factors lead to state adoption of HISS. These are: non- institutionalized regime entry to power, the espousal of an international revolutionary ideology, and high structural barriers to conventional military operations abroad against rivals. This research then takes a multi-method approach to testing this theory against the empirical record. I present new quantitative evidence from an original dataset constructed for this research on the State Patterns of Foreign Sponsorship. Using random effects, general estimating equations, and survival models on these novel data, the dissertation tests hypotheses from the literature against my own theory. In statistical analysis, I find support for correlations between my theory’s variables and HISS outcomes and less consistent support for alternative accounts. Seven case studies are then employed to test for congruency of the theory’s factors and outcomes and to present process tracing evidence that the theorized causal mechanisms are v operative. In each chapter, I demonstrate the mutually-reinforcing nature of all three factors in leading to a state’s adoption of HISS. The case studies also advance claims of joint necessity by focusing more heavily on one individual factor in each comparison case. One case-comparison chapter study is Iran 1979 and Sudan 1989, and the second compares China post-1949 and the Democratic Kampuchea/Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge. I then have a within-case study chapter on revolutionary Cuba, which changed its sponsorship pattern over time, relying more heavily on its conventional military apparatus to conduct its internationalist foreign policy after initially adopting HISS in the early 1960s. Finally, a single case study on non-adoption of HISS in Sandinista’s Nicaragua, mispredicted by the Revolutionary Realities account, probes the limitations and extensions of theory. Overall, I find that my theory of high-intensity state sponsorship in the post-WWII era even offers insight into the outlier case of US HISS adoption and is broadly consistent with the evidence from a number of cases across time and space. vi Acronyms ARDE Democratic Revolutionary Alliance CCP Chinese Communist Party CIA Central Intelligence Agency COW Correlates of War CPK Communist Party of Kampuchea DK Democratic Kampuchea EPS Sandinista Popular Army FAR Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces FMLN Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front FNLA National Front for the Liberation of Angola FSLN Sandinista National Liberation Front GEE General Estimating Equations GMD Guomingdang GWOT Global War on Terror HISS High-intensity state sponsorship of non-state actors HPTG High-Profile, Terroristic Group ILD International Liaison Department