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Title ASSESSMENT of HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL Title DROUGHTS RELATED TO ENSO IN LOMBOK AND SUMATRA ISLANDS, INDONESIA( Dissertation_全文 ) Author(s) Karlina Citation 京都大学 Issue Date 2018-03-26 URL https://doi.org/10.14989/doctor.k21058 Right 許諾条件により本文は2019-03-26に公開 Type Thesis or Dissertation Textversion ETD Kyoto University ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHTS RELATED TO ENSO IN LOMBOK AND SUMATRA ISLANDS, INDONESIA KARLINA 2018 ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHTS RELATED TO ENSO IN LOMBOK AND SUMATRA ISLANDS, INDONESIA By KARLINA A dissertation Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Engineering Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering Kyoto University, Japan 2018 Acknowledgements All praise is due to Allah S.W.T. the Almighty, for giving me the blessing, the strength, the chance, the patience, and endurance to complete this study. Without His blessed, this study which is entitled “Assessment of Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Related to ENSO in Lombok and Sumatra Islands, Indonesia” would never be finished. The research was done in the Laboratory of Innovative Disaster Prevention Technology and Policy Research, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University under the supervision of Professor Kaoru TAKARA. I would like to thank everyone for support me until I could finish this dissertation. First, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Professor Kaoru TAKARA who gave me a valuable chance to stay in his laboratory for three years. His continuous support and encouragement have been a great inspiration for me to finish this study. He, who always give challenge during my Ph.D. life, has always been the greatest source of strength and courage for me to try some new experiences to broaden my research and also develop my self-value and capability. Secondly, I wish to express my most profound appreciation to Assoc. Prof. Takahiro SAYAMA, who has been continuously giving me guidance and valuable input during my Ph.D. His continuous support, encouragement, advice, and patients have been a high motivation for me to finish this research. Through so many discussions with him, I learned a lot how to build up logic for my study and finish it. I would like to thank Ms. Sono INOUE and Ms. Kaori SAIDERA for their supports of administrative tasks and kindness before and during my stay in Japan. Through their assistance, I could finish my study activities without any meaningful problem. I would also like to acknowledge the GSS Program Faculty Members, especially Assoc. Prof. Shinpei Kudo as my mentor for always gives me support, advice, guidance, and valuable insight for finishing my GSS Activity. I thank Assoc. Prof. Minako Jen Yoshikawa, Assoc. Prof. Kumiko Kondo, Assoc. Prof. Mika Shimizu, Assoc. Prof. Masanori Katsuyama, Assoc. Prof. Makoto Nishi, Assoc. Prof. Florance Lahournat, and Assoc. Prof. Nobuyuki Ito for their kindness during GSS activities. I would also like to thank Ms. Maki Katsuyama and all GSS staff members for their kind assistance in GSS administrative papers. i I sincerely express my gratitude to Mr. Anang Fariansyah from River Basin Organization of Nusa Tenggara 1 for assisting in the collection of data used in this study. Without his help, this study would not have been possible. I express my acknowledgment to former lab members: Dr. Apip (who always gives support during fieldworks in Indonesia), Dr. Sahu (for a valuable time in discussing my research work), Dr. Pedro Chaffe, Dr. Bounhieng Vilaysane, Dr. Maochuan Hu, Dr. Josko Troveli, Dr. Hendy Setiawan (for always gives advice, courage, support, and insight in our discussions), Dr. Han Xue (for always gives positive insight), Dr. Chong Khai Lin (for lovely spending time together in and outside of laboratory life), Mr. Shusuke Takahashi (for being my tutor during my first 6 months stay in Japan), Mr. Takuma Ushiro and Mr. Tsukasa Goto. I would also like to thank all lab members: Mr. Pham Van Tien, Mr. Adnan Arutyuniv, Mr. Toma Stoyanov, Mr. Nguyen Duc Ha, Mr. Kodai Yamamoto, Mr. Ryosuke Kobayashi, Mr. Shintaro Miyake, Mr. Yoshito Sugawara, Mr. Koji Matsumoto, Ms. Saeka Togashi, Mr. Try Sophal and Mr. Steven Ly. Lovely thanks to Ms. Shi Yongxue who always be a great friend during my time. Also, thanks to Ms. Eva Mia Siska for jointly strengthening each other in completing this dissertation. Lastly, I would send my most profound thank to my dearest friends: Ms. Widha Kusumaningdyah and Ms. Salma Intifadha for spending wonderful time together in Japan and supporting each other in completing the study. My most profound gratitude belongs to my family: my mother, my father, my mother-in-law, my father-in-law, my brother, my sister-in-law, my brother-in-law and my nephews for always sending me love and encouraging me to finish my study. My utmost thanks and sincere gratitude go to my beloved husband who always is patients and strong for me. His continuous support has been the greatest energy for me to accomplish this achievement. Finally, I am grateful to acknowledge the financial support received from ASEAN University Network / Southeast Asia Engineering Education Development Network (AUN/SEED-Net) and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) through AUN/SEED-Net scholarship to perform my Ph.D. study during three years (2015-2018). Kyoto, November 2017 ii Abstract Indonesia is prone to drought disaster. However, despite the long historical record of drought in Indonesia, it is still challenging to understand the disaster completely. It is difficult to detect and monitor the drought event. Lack of physical evidence of the disaster is one of the reasons. The impact of a drought is less visible and spread over a large geographical extent, different from other natural hazards. Drought also a creeping phenomenon which makes the onset and termination difficult to determine. The effect of drought accumulate slowly and may continue after sometimes, could be months, seasons even years. Also, the existed of the various definition of drought adds confusion about drought, whether it exists and if it is severe or not. For these reasons, it is still difficult task to quantify the drought impacts and to define the disaster relief strategy. Unlike meteorological drought which is routinely monitored, there is still lack of hydrological drought monitoring system. The study about the relation of drought and ENSO also focus only on the meteorological drought. There is the necessity of improving the understanding of the relationships between climatological and hydrological parameters to develop measures to reduce the impacts of droughts. The understanding at the local scale is critical due to the heterogeneity in spatiotemporal hydro-meteorological variability. This dissertation attempted to assess the integration between meteorological and hydrological drought with regards to hydro-meteorological droughts forecasting. The two kinds of drought, hydrological and meteorological drought analysis were performed in this study. This study focuses on the development of drought forecasting method. This study also aims for better understandings of historical hydro-meteorological drought in relation to the climate phenomenon such as ENSO. This study focused on the seasonal streamflow correlation with ENSO and its relation with drought forecasting system. The specific objectives of the study are to understand the effect of the climate phenomenon, ENSO specifically, to the hydro- meteorological drought condition in Lombok Island and Sumatra Island, to develop the method of drought forecasting system based on ENSO indices, and to build hydrological drought forecasting system based on the low flow characteristics. The hydrological drought mainly focuses on the analysis of streamflow drought in Lombok Island. The discharge index was introduced for two catchment analysis; the Jangkok Catchment and the Babak Catchment. The streamflow used for the Jangkok Catchment is the discharge iii data in the Bug Bug Station, while Lantandaya Station represented the Babak Catchment. The calculation of the discharge index mainly use the monthly discharge data where the difference of monthly average with monthly data was compared with the standard deviation. The impact of ENSO to the hydrological drought was examined by using Pearson Correlation. The hydrological drought analysis in Lombok Island shows the ENSO impact on discharge in Bug Bug station is more significant than in Lantandaya station. The strongest ENSO-discharge correlation in Bug Bug station happens during Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) season, and the weakest one happens during Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) season. Furthermore, the lag correlation between JJA ENSO and SON discharge in Bug Bug Station shows the possibility to use ENSO for discharge drought prediction. The investigation of the impacts of ENSO and local SST to rainfall at the Batanghari River Basin in Sumatra, Indonesia was presented to discuss general characteristics of rainfall patterns in the region as well as the possibility of using those indicators for seasonal rainfall predictions. The monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall shows no significant trend, except for the decreasing trend in MAM season. The Pearson’s Correlation between monthly rainfall and ENSO shows a significant influence of ENSO on the rainfall from July to October. Moreover, local SST shows significant correlation with rainfall in July to September. In addition, the three-month lag correlation between ENSO to rainfall was found to be statistically significant in SON.
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