CONFLICT TRENDS (NO. 1) REAL-TIME ANALYSIS OF ASIAN POLITICAL VIOLENCE, MARCH 2015 Welcome to the first trend report for ACLED Asia. In these ACLED Asia data are compatible with all ACLED data, periodic publications, the ACLED Asia team will discuss and found on the project website. A shared codebook, gen- analyze the real-time conflict event trends that are occur- eral user guide, definitions for political violence, method- ring throughout South and South-East Asia. ACLED Asia will ology page, guide for humanitarian users and practition- release real-time data for eleven states with various con- ers, user guide for media, descriptions of data manage- flict profiles. These states include India, Pakistan, Sri ment practices, discussions of data collection practices Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Laos, Vi- and comparisons are available. Working papers on sourc- etnam, Thailand and Myanmar. See Figure 1. Data for ing materials and actor types are also available. January and February 2015 are now available from the The ACLED project differs from available information on CEPSA website and the ACLED website. South and Southeast Asia in numerous and significant Real-time data will be released by month, while the ACLED ways: it records the “who, what, when, where and how Asia team continues to collect back dated information for many” for conflict events; it is released consistently and all states. A schedule for available backdated information collects information in real-time; it collects information on will be released in the coming month. Several states will a wide range of political violence, from protests to drone have coverage from 1997-present, while others will have attacks, in order to capture the ways in which communi- conflict events coded from 2010-present for the initial ties experience instability and risk; it contains information round of backdating. See Figure 2. that is directly comparable across different contexts, countries, over time and between conflicts; it collects in- Figure 1: Conflict Trajectory, November 2014-February 2015. 1 ACLED is a publicly available database of political violence, which focuses on conflict in African and Asian states. Data is geo-referenced and disaggregated by type of violence and actors. Information, maps, data, publications and sources can be found at www.crisis.acleddata.com. Please contact [email protected] or [email protected] (@acledinfo) with any questions. CONFLICT TRENDS (NO. 1) REAL-TIME ANALYSIS OF ASIA POLITICAL VIOLENCE, MARCH 2015 Overview Figure 2: Number and type of events by state, from November 2014-February 2015. formation on conflict events committed by a wide range This trend report will discuss the conflict profile of Paki- of conflict agents. Groups involved in political violence are stan, Myanmar, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. A short recorded by their names, affiliations, and group ‘type’. piece on the resource riots and morality protests in India The ACLED system of group interactions allow users to accompanies a brief, concluding piece on the differences distinguish events involving rebels, militias, state forc- between African and Asian conflict environments. Upcom- es, communal groups, foreign groups, rioters, protesters ing trend reports will discuss Indian conflict environments, and civilians. ACLED also records instances where and those within South East Asia. ‘unidentified’ groups commit political violence. Political Conflict Environments by Country agents often do not officially acknowledge their role in violence, especially acts committed against civilians. Fur- South and South Asia are host to a range of political vio- ther, unidentified groups may remain un-named due to lence, with variable fatality rates, goals, levels of neces- media restrictions. To ignore unidentified violent events is sary collective action, and community support. Below is a to knowingly under-record and bias the record of the brief review of the types of political violence expected to threats to peace and stability occurring across actively predominantly occur within states. The ACLED team has conflicted states. Finally, ACLED data are accessible, trans- summarized the main conflict fault lines across Asian parent, and collected from a wide range of sources to cre- states that will characterize event data in the near future. ate thorough, valid and verifiable information. 2 CONFLICT TRENDS (NO. 1) REAL-TIME ANALYSIS OF ASIAN POLITICAL VIOLENCE, MARCH 2015 Pakistan The political climate in Pakistan is distinct to administra- particular, the Haqqani Network and Hafiz Gul Bahadur tive and ethnic districts, and characterized by local com- Group are Islamist groups borne from remnants from the petition between violent political groups, across which the Mujahedeen of the Soviet Invasion 1979. They have his- activity of formal state forces is clustered in FATA. FATA torical links with intelligence agencies in Pakistan, howev- experiences up to 50% of all politically violent acts in Paki- er under a current military operation ‘Zarb-e-Azb’ (begun stan and accounts for 67% of total fatalities. Neighbouring on June 14th, 2014), hideouts of these groups are being areas to FATA all experience some exposure to the com- targeted. This development is a trend to follow as the op- petition. Riots and protests between regional political eration is still underway. parties are common across the state, as is sectarian vio- Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa is one of the four main provinces lence between Sunni and Shia, which is frequent in both in Pakistan, and one of two neighbouring FATA. KPK has a rural and urban areas. See Figure 3. population of 21 million, the majority of which are Pash- The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) is a semi- tun, which is also the majority ethnicity of those in the autonomous region bordering Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa tribal regions and in the neighbouring provinces of Af- (KPK) in Pakistan. The area is governed primarily through ghanistan. This ethnic link is one possible explanation for local tribal traditions, with historically loose but influential the militancy in the AfPak region, and is often cited as the ties to the centre. FATA is home to most militant activity main reason militant groups find safe havens in the area. in Pakistan, with Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Lashkar The link with Pashtun culture, identity and militancy in the -i-Islam (LI), Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group, Haqqani Network region is not definitive in KPK -- it is the province most and Jamaatul Ahrar among the many militant groups that affected by attacks from militant groups. In the last quar- find safe haven in the locally administered mountainous ter of 2014 alone, 197 people were killed in KPK, 172 of region. Sharing a porous border with Afghanistan gives those deaths being caused by acts of violence perpetrated militant groups space to manoeuvre in and out of the by militant groups. country with relative ease compared to other areas. In IMAGE Figure 3: Number of battles by type in Pakistan, November 2014-February 2015. 3 CONFLICT TRENDS (NO. 1) REAL-TIME ANALYSIS OF ASIAN POLITICAL VIOLENCE, MARCH 2015 Pakistan Being in such close proximity to FATA, KPK becomes an the TTP, but in 2014 it declared allegiance with ISIS. easy target for militants and is seen to be the main battle- Militant groups use Balochistan as a safe haven to attack ground to exert their presence on the civilian population police check-posts, and also to frequently attack members of Pakistan. The civilian population is opposed to militant of the Hazara Shi’ite community who predominantly live oppression, and the retribution for defiance as well as the in Quetta. Targeted killings and sectarian violence also accessibility of the area, means that while Zarb-e-Azb is runs rife in Quetta, the capital of Balochistan. being fought in the tribal belt, the civilian population most gravely feels the after-effects in KPK. The second main type of conflict actor is an armed seces- sionist movement fighting for Balochi independence. The Most small-scale attacks are perpetrated by ‘Unidentified Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) is a movement that gained Armed Groups’, however, organized large scale attacks, significant traction in 2003 and attacks central state out- including coordinated bomb attacks, or militant infiltra- lets in the region, such as army checkpoints and govern- tions into schools, are conducted by three major groups, ment buildings and officials. In the closing quarter of Jamaatul Ahrar, TTP, and LI (each group claims responsi- 2014, separatist attacks were fewer in number than bility for attacks through social media and other outlets). attacks by TTP and Jandallah, who took aim at Shi’ite tar- Balochistan is Pakistan’s largest province with the lowest gets, state elements such as police check-posts and judg- population density. With less than 5 % of the population es, and politicians. living in such a vast landscape, the region is loosely gov- Sindh is the third of Pakistan’s four main provinces, and is erned through a ‘Levies Force’ which functions like a local, home to Karachi, Pakistan’s only major financial hub. Po- outsourced army for the centre. Balochistan borders all litical activity in Sindh is diverse, and primarily divided four of Pakistan’s main provinces, and FATA. along rural and urban lines. Rural Sindh is feudal in nature, Two main conflict actor types are present in Balochistan. and political activity in the region is dominated by alle- The first are rebel and militant forces from FATA and KPK giances to political parties, predominantly the Pakistan who find another major rear base in Balochistan, as land is Peoples Party (PPP) and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI- often inaccessible via regular transport. In particular, Balo- F). In addition to these two active parties, rural Sindh is chistan offers extensive cover for TTP militants, and the influenced heavily by left-wing political parties. These Jandallah group. Jandallah is a militant organization based groups are not as active in parliament, but have a strong in Balochistan but it began as a movement for Sunni rights union and public presence, creating an environment of in Iran.