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The Development of Cities in Italy 1300 - 1861 A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Bosker, E. Maarten; Brakman, Steven; Garretsen, Harry; de Jong, Herman; Schramm, Marc Working Paper The development of cities in Italy 1300 - 1861 CESifo Working Paper, No. 1893 Provided in Cooperation with: Ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich Suggested Citation: Bosker, E. Maarten; Brakman, Steven; Garretsen, Harry; de Jong, Herman; Schramm, Marc (2007) : The development of cities in Italy 1300 - 1861, CESifo Working Paper, No. 1893, Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/25938 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu THE DEVELOPMENT OF CITIES IN ITALY 1300 - 1861 MAARTEN BOSKER STEVEN BRAKMAN HARRY GARRETSEN HERMAN DE JONG MARC SCHRAMM CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 1893 CATEGORY 10: EMPIRICAL AND THEORETICAL METHODS JANUARY 2007 An electronic version of the paper may be downloaded • from the SSRN website: www.SSRN.com • from the RePEc website: www.RePEc.org • from the CESifo website: www.CESifo-group.deT T CESifo Working Paper No. 1893 THE DEVELOPMENT OF CITIES IN ITALY 1300 - 1861 Abstract The evolution of city growth is usually studied for relatively short time periods. The rise and decline of cities is, however, typically a process that takes many decades or even centuries. In this paper we study the evolution of Italian cities over the period 1300-1861. The first contribution of our paper is that we use various descriptive statistics on individual city sizes and the city-size distribution as a whole to highlight the main characteristics of Italy’s urban system such as the differences between northern and southern Italy. Our second, and main, contribution is that our data allow for panel estimation where city-size is regressed on various geographical, political and other determinants of city size for the period 1300-1861. We show that, although large shocks such as the plague epidemics are clearly visible in the data, the main determinants of Italy’s city growth invariably are physical geography and political predominance. Also the North-South difference turns out to be important. JEL Code: R12, O18. Maarten Bosker Steven Brakman Utrecht School of Economics Faculty of Economics Utrecht University University of Groningen Janskerkhof 12 P.O. Box 800 The Netherlands – 3512 BL Utrecht The Netherlands – 9700 AV Groningen [email protected] [email protected] Harry Garretsen Herman de Jong Utrecht School of Economics Faculty of Economics Utrecht University University of Groningen Janskerkhof 12 P.O. Box 800 The Netherlands – 3512 BL Utrecht The Netherlands – 9700 AV Groningen [email protected] [email protected] Marc Schramm Utrecht School of Economics Utrecht University Janskerkhof 12 The Netherlands – 3512 BL Utrecht [email protected] December 2006. Preliminary Version, Comments Welcome Send all correspondence to Maarten Bosker. We like to thank Paolo Malanima, Jens Suedekum, and Seminar participants at the NARSC 2006 Toronto meeting, for comments on an earlier draft of this paper. 1. Introduction Two key questions in urban economics are why cities differ and how they develop over time. In a nutshell, the answer is the mix of agglomeration and spreading forces, a mix that is city-specific and varies over time (see Fujita and Thisse: 2002 or Gordon, et al.: 2000). The rise and decline of cities is a process that may take many years. By taking a long-term perspective (de Vries: 1984), these changes become visible. In pre-modern times relative costs of transportation were much larger than today, and perishable goods could not be transported over long distances. Urbanization went hand-in-hand with nearby intensive agriculture. Therefore most medieval European cities were quite small according to modern standards. With the development of colonies outside Europe and the increase of overseas trade from 1500 onwards port cities became dominant, especially those with easy access to the Atlantic, leading to the relative downturn of Mediterranean harbors (Acemoglu et al: 2005). From 1750 onwards, early industrialization relied on waterpower, and the access to water became an important factor in determining the location of economic activity and for that matter of urbanization. It is easy to produce many more examples like these. They serve to illustrate that over (long stretches of) time the balance between agglomerating and spreading forces changes. One might thus expect that city-size distributions and also the ranking of individual cities in the distributions change over time – growing cities that were once only of local importance overtake former important centres. This, however, is not the general conclusion from the literature. As illustrated in, for example, de Vries (1984) and Hohenberg (2004), the European system of cities seems remarkable stable: “Taking both the resistance and the resilience of cities together, it is perhaps not surprising that the European system should rest so heavily on places many centuries old, despite the enormous increase in the urban population and the transformation in urban economies” (Hohenberg: 2004, p. 3051). The aim of this paper is to see whether or not this conclusion is also confirmed when focusing on one European country, Italy, only, and also to provide empirical evidence on the factors that are mainly responsible for the observed evolution of city sizes. 2 Theories regarding the existence and development of cities recently experienced a revival.2 Davis and Weinstein (2002) mention three main approaches that can be distinguished in the modern literature: random growth theory, increasing returns to scale theories and finally, models that emphasize physical geography or other fixed endowments. All of these theories no doubt contain important elements to explain the actual development of cities. Whatever the relevance of each of these theoretical approaches, a prerequisite for any testing of these modern urban theories is, however, the availability of well-documented, historical analyses of urban development. And it is precisely here that the present paper hopes to make a contribution. The main contribution of this paper is twofold. First, and building on Malanima (1998, 2005), we use a large historical data set on more than 400 Italian cities for the period 1300-1861. The reason to choose Italy is that it is one of the first urbanized countries in early-modern history. In sketching the development of urban hierarchies in Europe as early as 1250, Russell (1972) labeled Italy as ‘the most advanced and urbanized country in Europe and probably even in the world’. Also, Italian cities experienced many shocks with different characteristics. We use a wide array of descriptive statistics on individual city sizes and the city-size distribution as a whole to highlight the main characteristics of Italy’s urban system such as the differences between northern and southern Italy. Our conclusion from this section is that “stability amidst change” is a better description than that the system of cities is “remarkable stable”. The second contribution of this paper is the presentation of panel data estimates to provide a deeper understanding of the development of Italian cities for the period 1300 and 1861. Our data allow for panel estimation where city-size is regressed on various geographical, political/institutional and economic determinants of city size for the period 1300-1861. We show that, besides the 2 This is best illustrated by J.V.Henderson and J-F. Thisse (eds.), 2004, Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Vol.4: Cities and Geography. The contributions in this handbook illustrate that in the past 15 years or so, new theories have come to the fore. In this respect the contribution of Krugman (1991) deserves to be mentioned. This paper initiated a whole new sub-discipline, the so-called New Economic Geography (NEG), that formalizes the most important agglomerating and spreading forces that are responsible for the spatial distribution of economic activity. The big step forward in this approach is that the spatial distribution of economic activity can be derived endogenously. 3 two pest epidemics, the main determinants of Italy’s city growth invariably are physical geography and political predominance. Also the North-South divide turns out to be important and we provide tentative evidence regarding the relevance of some economic variables. The paper is organized as follows. In section 2 we give a short history of the development of Italian cities between 1300 and 1861, after which we provide ample descriptive statistics on city sizes and city size distributions. This section forms the prelude to section 3 in which we present our estimation results. Section 4 concludes. 2. City Size and City Size Distribution in Italy from 1300 to 1861 In this section we provide descriptive statistics and various other summary measures on our main variable of interest, Italian city size. By way of introduction we provide some historical background in section 2.1.
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