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Air Base Attacks and Defensive Counters Historical Lessons and Future Challenges

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Air Base Attacks and Defensive Counters Historical Lessons and Future Challenges Research Report Air Base Attacks and Defensive Counters Historical Lessons and Future Challenges Alan J. Vick C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR968 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-8884-0 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2015 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface In the past decade, U.S. national security policymakers and defense analysts have given increasing attention to the problem of adversary anti-access and area-denial strategies. These strategies are intended to inhibit U.S. political and operational access to and disrupt U.S. operations in key regions. A central feature of adversary anti-access strategies is capabilities designed to disrupt the operation of U.S. and partner-nation forward air bases. Although emerging systems, such as precision standoff systems, present new challenges to air base operations, attacks on air bases are nothing novel, dating back to the opening months of World War I. In the past century, air base attacks have been common in both small and large wars; specialized tactics and systems have been developed for offensive operations against adversary bases and for the defense of friendly bases. To better understand this policy problem and explore the relative effectiveness of potential solutions, RAND Project AIR FORCE has conducted a series of assessments over recent years exploring historical, political, and operational aspects of the access problem. This report is designed to complement these more-operational and technical analyses—which are generally not available to the general public, media, and academic communities. The objective is to better inform the public debate on this important policy problem. This report is also intended as a reference for those military planners, strategists, war-college students, and other defense professionals who have not yet had an opportunity to delve deeply into the topic. It presents an overview of the problem, describes the history of air base attacks and defensive counters, and broadly explores emerging challenges and options to enhance the future operability of air bases. This report integrates and extends an analysis that was originally commissioned by 13th Air Force and Headquarters Air Force Operational Planning Policy and Strategy, as well as research conducted in support of the fiscal year 2014 U.S. Air Force Scientific Advisory Board study “Defense of USAF Forward Bases.” The research described in this report was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-06-C0001. iii Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf iv Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures........................................................................................................................................... vii Tables ............................................................................................................................................. ix Summary ........................................................................................................................................ xi Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................... xvii Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... xix Chapter One. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 Background ............................................................................................................................................... 1 The Policy Problem .................................................................................................................................. 2 Purpose of This Report ............................................................................................................................. 2 Organization of This Report ..................................................................................................................... 2 Chapter Two. A Short History of Attacks on Air Bases ................................................................. 3 Chapter Three. A New American Way of War? ........................................................................... 11 Rapidly Deploy Large Joint Forces ........................................................................................................ 13 Create Rear-Area Sanctuaries ................................................................................................................. 13 Closely Monitor Enemy Activities ......................................................................................................... 14 Begin Combat Operations ...................................................................................................................... 15 Seize the Initiative with Air and Missile Campaigns ............................................................................. 15 Sustain the Air Campaign from Sortie Factories .................................................................................... 16 Chapter Four. Back to the Future: The End of the Sanctuary Era ................................................ 19 Ballistic and Cruise Missiles .................................................................................................................. 19 Effects of Missile Attacks on Air Bases ............................................................................................. 23 Ground-Force Threats to Air Bases ........................................................................................................ 24 Future Ground Threats to Air Bases ....................................................................................................... 27 Unguided Mortars ............................................................................................................................... 28 Precision Standoff Attacks ................................................................................................................. 29 Commando Attacks ............................................................................................................................ 30 Effects of Ground Attacks on Air Bases ............................................................................................ 31 Disruptive Innovation and the American Way of War ........................................................................... 32 Chapter Five. Defensive Options .................................................................................................. 39 Camouflage, Concealment, and Deception ............................................................................................ 40 Hardening ............................................................................................................................................... 43 On-Base Dispersal .................................................................................................................................. 53 Dispersal Across Many Bases ................................................................................................................ 54 Postattack Recovery ............................................................................................................................... 56 Toward More-Resilient Basing .............................................................................................................
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