Pol. J. Environ. Stud. Vol. 27, No. 5 (2018), 2367-2376 DOI: 10.15244/pjoes/79818 ONLINE PUBLICATION DATE: 2018-04-23

Original Research Demand-Supply Balance Analysis of Agricultural Organic Waste Recycling in Northern Province,

Qingsheng Zhou1*, Li2, Chunlin Yang1, Yufei Zhao1

1School of Resource and Environment, Henan Institute of Science and Technology, , China 2School of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, Henan Institute of Science and Technology, Xinxiang, China

Received: 17 July 2017 Accepted: 6 November 2017

Abstract

For more efficient utilization of agricultural organic waste composts, this research formulates the demand of agricultural organic waste composts and the supply of compost converted from agricultural organic waste in the region, and models the demand-supply balance of agricultural organic waste compost in some regions. Objects of study include 6 urban districts, 5 county-level cities, and 21 counties in northern Henan Province, China. The crops’ latent demand for compost and the latent supply of compost converted from agricultural organic wastes (straw and livestock manure) in each region is computed for an analysis of demand-supply balance. According to the findings, there is a large deviation in both the ratio of the supply of livestock manure composts to that of straw composts and the demand-supply ratio of composts in the studied regions. To be specific, the overall demand-supply ratio in the studied regions is about 1.21, showing that demand is greater than supply. Theoretically, all agricultural organic wastes can be used for agricultural production in these regions. In addition, actual demand ratio (actual demand/ latent demand) is found in the utilization of composts. Supposing the actual demand ratio is 50%, research again analyzes the demand-supply balance, revealing that all livestock manure composts can be utilized, but that straw compost is surplus in large amounts in the studied regions.

Keywords: northern Henan Province, compost, latent demand, latent supply, demand-supply ratio

Introduction wastes is constantly stressed, but they are not so efficiently utilized in many areas [4]. Henan Province’s In recent years, attention has been paid to the annual output of agricultural organic wastes includes development of circular agriculture. An important straw and livestock manure coming first throughout countermeasure for the development of circular China [5-6]. For example, its annual output of various agriculture is to recover the land of agricultural organic livestock manures is more than 130 million tons, approx. wastes [1-3]. Efficient utilization of agricultural organic 31 million tons after being dried; and there are more than 130 registered compost production enterprises in the whole province and their annual production capacity is approx. 1.8 million tons, but safely fermented *e-mail: [email protected] manure is no more than 500,000 tons [7]. Based on the 2368 Zhou Q., et al.

–– Agricultural organic wastes in these regions, as re- sources like those in other regions of Henan Province, are not fully utilized; besides, related research on the demand-supply balance of agricultural organic waste composts in the studied regions is lacking. –– The studied regions, developed in planting and breed- ing industries, have sufficient demand and supply of agricultural organic waste compost.

Material and Methods

Study Area Fig. 1. Analysis process of the demand-supply balance of agricultural organic waste. Northern Henan Province has about 20.3723 million citizens (19.11% of Henan Province’s total population) and a cultivated area of approx. 18,600 km2, or 22.71% of above data, it can be reckoned that these enterprises’ Henan Province’s total cultivated area. Enjoying a warm production capacity accounts for 6% of total occurrence temperate continental monsoon climate and an average quantity, and their actual production output is about temperature of 13-14.5ºC, the area has four distinctive 1.6% of total occurrence quantity. However, the rate of seasons: dry spring, hot summer, cool autumn, and livestock manure has reached 97% in Japan as computed cold winter. Its abundant rain, fertile soil, and rich by the Ministry of the Environment (the state of garbage light and heat are suitable for the growth of crops and classification, occurrence, and disposal in Japan) [8-9]. the development of the livestock industry [15]. Main For the past few years, China has reached a world-class livestock in northern Henan Province includes cattle, level in terms of research on composting technology sheep, pigs and fowl, and main crops are wheat and corn. and agricultural organic waste pollution treatment [10- Moreover, this area has high-level output and planting 12]. Now that the application of agricultural organic technology of soybean, cotton, peanut, rapeseed, and waste composts requires a large amount of labor and sesame [16]. is affected by movement limit and regional coverage The studied regions include urban districts (a [13], a probability analysis of the demand and supply of generic term of districts in a prefecture-level city), agricultural organic waste composts in some regions is counties, and county-level cities in six prefecture- a scientific means to enhance their efficient utilization level cities such as Xinxiang City, City, [14]. Nevertheless, there is no research in a region wider City, City, City, and City. Jiyuan than Henan Province. For this reason, it is of great City covers a small area without county-level city and importance to analyze the demand-supply balance county in its administrative division, so this region is of agricultural organic waste composts and to study studied as a whole. The studied regions consists of 6 countermeasures for their utilization. urban districts, 5 county-level cities, and 21 counties. This research takes regions to the north of the In this paper, crops’ theoretical maximum demand for in Henan Province (hereinafter referred composts (hereinafter referred to as latent demand), and to as northern Henan Province) as objects of study and the occurrence quantity of agricultural organic wastes assumes that agricultural organic wastes including including straws and livestock manures and theoretical straws and livestock manures in these regions are maximum supply of converted composts (hereinafter utilized. These regions are chosen for the following referred to as supply) are reckoned respectively. reasons: A quantitative analysis of the demand-supply demand of –– Regional limitations in the recycling application of agricultural organic waste composts and their utilization agricultural organic waste compost; the studied re- probability in the studied regions is made to provide a gions are separated by the Yellow River from other scientific basis for the effective utilization of agricultural regions in Henan Province, so they have better intra- organic wastes in these regions. The specific research regional movement efficiency of agricultural organic process is shown in Fig. 1. waste composts.

Table 1. Original fertilization unit of crops (wet basis; t/ha). Crop Summer Autumn Chinese Oil crops Fruit trees Vegetables Cotton Others species crops CROPS herbs Application 10 10 15 20 20 15 20 20 Unit Demand-Supply Balance Analysis... 2369 7.75 2.59 45.46 10.52 20.13 Latent Latent 211.19 124.75 demand Hebi City Hebi Qibin Qibin Region Hebi City Hebi Qi county Qi Xun county Xun Kaifa district Kaifa Heshan district Heshan Shancheng district Shancheng 39.73 40.21 13.41 97.92 63.53 Latent Latent 593.58 143.98 194.80 demand Puyang City Puyang Region Fan Puyang City Puyang Kaifa district Kaifa Nanle Taiqian county Puyang Hualong district Hualong Qingfeng 5.23 9.35 6.40 93.63 94.68 17.01 Latent Latent 311.54 186.15 137.86 861.85 demand Anyang City Anyang Region Hua Linzhou city Linzhou Anyang City Anyang Yindu district Yindu Anyang Tangyin Longan district Longan Beiguan district Beiguan Wenfeng Neihuang 3.09 1.58 8.77 3.63 0.56 96.03 57.01 52.88 41.60 68.94 59.33 Latent Latent 393.42 demand Jiaozuo City Jiaozuo Region Wen county Wen Boai county Boai Jiaozuo City Jiaozuo city city Qinyang Wuzhi Xiuwu Macun district Macun Jiefang Gaoxin district Gaoxin city Mengzhou Shanyang district district Shanyang Zhongzhan 7.98 8.30 15.59 84.40 19.74 14.08 Latent Latent 263.79 194.96 109.02 240.98 238.73 130.40 214.13 demand 1541.95 Xinxiang City Xinxiang Region city Weihui Kafa district Kafa city city Huixian Muye district Muye Yanjin county Yanjin Huojia county Huojia Xinxiang City Xinxiang Weibin district Weibin Hongqi Fengqiu Xinxiang Fengquan district Fengquan Yuanyang county Yuanyang county Changyuan 3.39 7.38 4.18 3.64 0.49 1.32 0.45 11.77 11.18 10.80 16.88 44.23 12.64 14.67 12.37 Latent Latent 155.39 demand Jiyuan city Jiyuan Region Sili town Sili Lilin town Lilin Jiyuan city Jiyuan Dayu town Dayu Potou town Potou Xiaye town Xiaye Kejing town Kejing Wangwu town Wangwu Chengliu town Chengliu Zhicheng town Zhicheng Shaoyuan town Shaoyuan Wulongkou town Wulongkou Beihai subdistrict Beihai Tiantan subdistrict Tiantan Yuquan subdistrict Yuquan Qinyuan subdistrict Qinyuan Table 2. The latent demand for composts in the studied regions (wet basis) (10,000 t/year). (10,000 basis) (wet regions studied the in composts for demand latent The 2. Table 2370 Zhou Q., et al.

Methods Reckoning of Latent Supply of Livestock Manure Compost Reckoning of Talent Compost Demand

The number of various livestock in each region Tij Crops’ latent demand for composts is calculated multiplies by the daily occurrence quantity of various on the basis of the cultivated area of crops and the livestock manures Sj (hereinafter referred as original application standards (hereinafter referred to as original unit) and then multiplies by the raising days in a year fertilization unit) of crop composts. This research uses to get the annual occurrence quantity of various fresh Formula (1) to calculate the latent demand for composts livestock manures. Now that fresh manures need to in the studied regions: be made into composts in accordance with national standards by fermenting and drying, the weight will be D = A B (1) reduced after fresh manure is converted into compost. i i n This paper defines the ratio of the weight of composts ...where: to the weight of fresh manures as composting rate. Different livestock’s fresh manures have different water Di: latent demand for composts (t/year) A: cultivated area of crops (ha) content, so the composting rate of different livestock B: original fertilization unit of crops (t/ha) manures differs. The annual occurrence quantity of n: crops various fresh livestock manures multiplies by the i: regions composting rate of various livestock manures Ej to get The cultivated area of various crops A in the studied the latent supply of livestock manure composts in the regions is obtained from The Statistical Yearbook of studied regions Hij (Formula (2)): Henan Province [17]. Different crops have different demand for composts (see literature data [18] for the Hij = (Tij Sj 365) Ej (2) original fertilization unit of crops B, as shown in Table 1.). According to Formula (1), the original fertilization ...where: unit, and the cultivated area of crops, the latent demand Hij: the latent supply of livestock manure compost for composts in the studies regions is calculated, with (t/year) results shown in Table 2. The annual latent demand for Tij: the number of livestock in the studied regions composts in the studied regions is approx. 37.57 million Sj: the original occurrence unit of various livestock tons. Since Jiyuan City has the smallest crop area among manures (kg/day) the six prefecture-level cities, it has the lowest annual Ej: the composting rate of livestock manure latent demand for compost, at approx. 1.5539 tons. j: livestock Xinxiang City has the highest latent demand for compost i: regions through the whole year, at approx. 15.4195 million tons, The number of various livestock in the studied accounting for 40% of northern Henan Province’s total regions is obtained from The Statistical Yearbook of demands. Due to its biggest latent demand for compost, Henan Province [17] (see literature data for the original Xinxiang is the center of demand for compost in occurrence unit of different livestock manures [19] northern Henan Province. and calculate the composting rate of various livestock

Table 3. Original occurrence unit and the composting rate of livestock manure. Livestock Species Dairy Cattle Beef Cattle Horse, Donkey and Mule Pig Sheep Rabbit Chicken Original Occurrence 45 20 14 3 1.7 0.15 0.14 (kg/day) Composting Rate (%) 40 40 40 40 60 60 60 Livestock Species Dairy Cattle Beef Cattle Horse, Donkey and Mule Pig Sheep Rabbit Chicken Original Occurrence 45 20 14 3 1.7 0.15 0.14 (kg/day) Composting Rate (%) 40 40 40 40 60 60 60 Livestock Species Dairy Cattle Beef Cattle Horse, Donkey and Mule Pig Sheep Rabbit Chicken Original Occurrence 45 20 14 3 1.7 0.15 0.14 (kg/day) Composting Rate (%) 40 40 40 40 60 60 60 *Composting rate: the rate of converting fresh livestock manures into compost (the weight of livestock manure compost/the weight of fresh livestock manure)*100% Demand-Supply Balance Analysis... 2371 0.68 11.93 91.50 66.58 14.12 19.28 Latent Latent supply 204.09 Hebi City Hebi Qibin Qibin Region Hebi City Hebi Qi county Qi Xun county Xun Kaifa district Kaifa Heshan district Heshan Shancheng district Shancheng 6.53 6.00 22.49 38.81 85.13 56.17 41.71 Latent Latent supply 256.83 Puyang City Puyang Region Fan county Fan Puyang City Puyang Kaifa district Kaifa Nanle county Nanle Taiqian county Taiqian Puyang county county Puyang Hualong district Hualong Qingfeng county Qingfeng 2.99 0.78 0.38 0.95 78.63 49.47 95.24 47.01 34.61 Latent Latent supply 310.05 Anyang City Anyang Region Hua county Hua Linzhou city Linzhou Anyang City Anyang Yindu district Yindu Anyang county Anyang Tangyin county Tangyin Longan district Longan Beiguan district Beiguan Wenfeng district Wenfeng Neihuang county Neihuang 1.46 1.17 0.86 1.90 1.50 23.07 29.56 64.75 26.14 33.52 28.81 Latent Latent supply 212.74 Jiaozuo City Jiaozuo Region Wen county Wen Boai county Boai Jiaozuo City Jiaozuo Qinyang city city Qinyang Wuzhi county Wuzhi Xiuwu county Xiuwu Macun district Macun Jiefang district Jiefang Gaoxin district Gaoxin Mengzhou city Mengzhou Shanyang district district Shanyang Zhongzhan district Zhongzhan 1.01 2.72 1.40 1.76 2.69 70.82 58.84 38.81 48.00 53.84 29.22 24.53 25.47 Latent Latent supply 356.39 Xinxiang City Xinxiang Region Weihui city Weihui Huixian city city Huixian Kafa district Kafa Muye district Muye Yanjin county Yanjin Huojia county Huojia Xinxiang City Xinxiang Weibin district Weibin Hongqi district Hongqi Fengqiu county Fengqiu Xinxiang county Xinxiang Fengquan district Fengquan Yuanyang county Yuanyang Changyuan county Changyuan 3.28 2.80 8.28 4.64 4.64 4.43 3.48 4.73 6.96 0.26 2.27 0.71 0.30 69.18 10.26 12.14 Latent Latent supply Jiyuan city Jiyuan Region Sili town Sili Lilin town Lilin Jiyuan city Jiyuan Dayu town Dayu Potou town Potou Xiaye town Xiaye Kejing town Kejing Wangwu town Wangwu Chengliu town Chengliu Zhicheng town Zhicheng Shaoyuan town Shaoyuan Wulongkou town Wulongkou Beihai subdistrict Beihai Tiantan subdistrict Tiantan Yuquan subdistrict Yuquan Qinyuan subdistrict Qinyuan Table 4. Annual latent supply of livestock manure compost in the studied regions of northern Henan Province (wet basis; 10,000 tons/year). 10,000 basis; (wet Province Henan northern of regions studied the in compost manure livestock of supply latent Annual 4. Table 2372 Zhou Q., et al.

Table 5. Occurrence coefficient of crop straws.

Occurrence Coefficient Unit Barley, Wheat Rice Corn Bean Oil Cotton of Crop Straw t/t 1.0 1.0 1.5 3.0 2.0 4.0

manure based on literature data [4].). Table 3 shows the of Henan Province [17]. The occurrence coefficient original occurrence unit and the composting rate of of different crop straws is calculated on the basis of various livestock manures. literature data [20] (Table 5). The annual latent supply of livestock manure The annual latent supply of straw composts in the composts in the studied regions of northern Henan studied regions is calculated according to Formula (3), Province is calculated according to Formula (2), the the harvest yield of various crops and the occurrence number of various livestock, the original occurrence unit coefficient of different crop straws, with results shown of fresh manure, and the composting rate, with results in Table 6. The annual latent supply of straw compost shown in Table 4. The annual latent supply of livestock in the studied regions is approx. 16.91 million tons. manure composts in the studied regions is approx. 14.08 Xinxiang and Anyang’s annual latent supply of straw million tons. The sum of Xinxiang City and Anyang compost totals 8.99 million tons, or about 53% of the City is 6.69 million tons, about 48% of the total quantity all supplies in northern Henan Province, revealing that in northern Henan Province, implying sufficient raw the two regions have sufficient raw materials of straw materials of livestock manure compost in the two compost. regions.

Reckoning of Latent Supply Results and Discussion of Crop Straw Composts Analysis of Latent Demand-Supply Balance The latent supply of crop straw composts is calculated according to Formula (3). During the harvest In the studied regions of northern Henan Province, season of crops, straws are basically dry and their water the overall latent demand of agricultural organic content meets the standard of compost, so they can fully waste compost is approx. 37.5738 million tons work as compost. The harvest yield of various crops Uij a year and the latent supply of compost is about multiplies by the occurrence coefficient of various crop 31.0007 million tons a year. Fig. 2 shows the demand- straws Vj (the occurrence quantity of straws/the harvest supply ratio (demand/supply) of compost in this area. yield of crops) to get the latent supply of various crop If the ratio is above 1.0, it indicates more latent demand straw composts Pij: than latent supply. According to the data above, it can be reckoned that the overall compost demand-supply ratio in northern Henan Province is 1.21. Theoretically, Pij = Uij Vj (3) ...where: if there is more demand than supply, agricultural organic wastes can be fully used for agricultural production in Pij: latent supply of straw compost (t/year) this area. Among the studied regions, Xinxiang City, Uij: harvest yield of crops (t/year) with a developed planting industry, has a demand- Vj: occurrence coefficient of various straws j:crops supply ratio of above 1.0 in all regions and the highest i: regions overall average demand-supply ratio in northern Henan The harvest yield of various crops in the studied Province, at approx. 1.83. Xun County, Hebi City, with regions is obtained from The Statistical Yearbook the smallest planting area, has the lowest demand- supply ratio of 0.35. The ratio in all studied regions of Hebi is above 1.0 and the overall demand-supply ratio is about 0.59, at the lowest level among the six prefecture- level cities. The research reveals a big deviation in the demand-supply ratio of composts in the studied regions of northern Henan Province. Fig. 3 lists the ratio of the latent demand of compost to the latent supply of agricultural organic waste composts in the studied regions. Regarding large-size livestock, cattle contribute 12% manure compost, and horses, donkeys, and mules about 0.1%, totaling 12.1%. 11% of compost is from pig manure, 4.3% from sheep manure, and 18% from chicken (hereinafter referred to Fig. 2. Latent demand-supply ratio of agricultural organic waste as fowl). The sum of composts from various livestock compost in the studied regions of northern Henan Province. manures is about 45.4% of aggregate supply, and the Demand-Supply Balance Analysis... 2373 2.81 1.30 2.22 14.43 92.77 37.71 Latent Latent supply 151.24 Hebi City Hebi Qibin Qibin Region Hebi City Hebi Qi county Qi Xun county Xun Kaifa district Kaifa Heshan district Heshan Shancheng district Shancheng 7.50 62.07 75.42 42.18 14.36 24.45 Latent Latent supply 116.07 342.05 Puyang City Puyang Region Fan county Fan Puyang City Puyang Kaifa district Kaifa Nanle county Nanle Taiqian county Taiqian Puyang county county Puyang Hualong district Hualong Qingfeng county Qingfeng 3.33 2.18 3.60 6.61 37.81 49.20 63.29 74.38 Latent Latent supply 170.02 410.41 Anyang City Anyang Region Hua county Hua Linzhou city Linzhou Anyang City Anyang Yindu district Yindu Anyang county Anyang Tangyin county Tangyin Longan district Longan Beiguan district Beiguan Wenfeng district Wenfeng Neihuang county Neihuang 4.42 1.21 0.37 0.64 1.78 26.76 35.14 26.76 38.07 36.12 Latent Latent supply 100.57 271.85 Jiaozuo City Jiaozuo Region Wen county Wen Boai county Boai Jiaozuo City Jiaozuo Qinyang city city Qinyang Wuzhi county Wuzhi Xiuwu county Xiuwu Macun district Macun Jiefang district Jiefang Gaoxin district Gaoxin Mengzhou city Mengzhou Shanyang district district Shanyang Zhongzhan district Zhongzhan 2.77 4.89 2.45 6.60 36.02 36.25 84.72 58.72 31.96 72.77 42.68 65.84 Latent Latent supply 147.12 488.20 Xinxiang City Xinxiang Region Weihui city Weihui Kafa district Kafa Huixian city city Huixian Muye district Muye Yanjin county Yanjin Huojia county Huojia Xinxiang City Xinxiang Weibin district Weibin Hongqi district Hongqi Fengqiu county Fengqiu Xinxiang county Xinxiang Fengquan district Fengquan Yuanyang county Yuanyang Changyuan county Changyuan 1.11 0.25 1.63 1.52 4.99 0.32 1.52 3.46 2.35 2.71 3.28 1.20 1.26 0.81 0.79 27.20 Latent Latent supply Jiyuan city Jiyuan Region Sili town Sili Lilin town Lilin Jiyuan city Jiyuan Dayu town Dayu Potou town Potou Xiaye town Xiaye Kejing town Kejing Wangwu town Wangwu Chengliu town Chengliu Zhicheng town Zhicheng Shaoyuan town Shaoyuan Wulongkou town Wulongkou Beihai subdistrict Beihai Tiantan subdistrict Tiantan Yuquan subdistrict Yuquan Qinyuan subdistrict Qinyuan Table 6. Annual latent supply of straw compost in the studies regions of northern Henan Province (10,000 tons/year). (10,000 Province Henan northern of regions studies the in compost straw of supply latent Annual 6. Table 2374 Zhou Q., et al.

Fig. 3. Ratio of latent demand to latent supply of agricultural organic waste compost in northern Henan Province (10,000 tons/year).

Fig. 5. Demand-supply ratio when actual compost demand rate reaches 50% in the studied regions of northern Henan Province compost from straws accounts for approx. 54.6%. Fig. 4 shows the ratio of the latent supply of livestock manure compost to that of straw compost in the 6 chemical fertilizer in the 6 prefecture-level cities of prefecture-level cities of northern Henan Province. northern Henan Province is 1.9 times as much as China’s Among the 6 cities, Xinxiang has the largest latent average level, and 3 times developed countries’ standard supply of livestock manure and straw compost, and [18], severely exceeding the limit. In view of this, it is Jiyuan has the smallest. According to the ratio of the difficult to use compost for all crop production in the latent supply of livestock manure compost to that of studied regions. Moreover, using compost of equal effect straw compost, Jiyuan and Hebi have more livestock with chemical fertilizers requires several times and manure compost than straw compost. Developed feeding even dozens of times the labors and transportation costs industry but small crop planting area are the reasons compared with chemical fertilizer, which is another why Hebi’s demand-supply ratio is only 0.59. Jiyuan has region why chemical fertilizers are increasingly used a demand-supply ratio of 1.61. Notwithstanding small year by year in this area. Considering the actual demand crop planting area, its wide vegetable cultivation area rate in practical application of agricultural organic waste contributes to a great demand for compost. The other composts (actual demand/latent demand), this research four prefecture-level cities have less latent supply of assumes the actual demand rate to be 50% and then livestock manure compost than that of straw compost. analyzes the demand-supply balance of composts in Findings show that there is also a big deviation in the corresponding condition. The demand-supply ratio when ratio of latent supply of livestock manure compost to the actual demand rate is 50% in the studied regions of that of straw compost in the studied regions of northern northern Henan Province is shown in Fig. 5. Henan Province. As shown in Fig. 5, among the 6 urban districts, 5 county-level cities and 21 countries in the studied Analysis of Demand-Supply Balance when Actual regions, only Yanjin County, Xinxiang City has a Demand Rate Reaches 50% demand-supply ratio of 1.11, 13 studied units have a demand-supply ratio of lower than 0.50, and it is The above-noted results reveal that the demand of between 0.51-1.00 in 18 studied units. The overall agricultural organic waste compost falls short of supply demand-supply ratio of compost in northern Henan in the studied regions of northern Henan Province. Province is approx. 0.61, lower than 1.0 and revealing Nevertheless, the province’s crops are fertilized with an oversupply of agricultural organic waste composts. chemical fertilizers in actual fertilizer utilization of When the actual demand rate reaches 50%, the ratio agricultural production. The average use intensity of of the actual demand rate of composts to the supply of

Fig. 4. Ratio of latent supply of livestock manure compost to that of straw compost in the 6 prefecture-level cities of northern Fig. 6. Ratio of actual compost demand rate to latent supply of Henan Province (10,000 tons/year). composts in northern Henan Province (10,000 tons/year). Demand-Supply Balance Analysis... 2375 agricultural organic waste compost in northern Henan the studied regions, this research also lays a solid Province is shown in Fig. 6. foundation for the reduction of movement costs and As shown in Fig. 6, the annual demand of compost the improvement of utilization efficiency in the future is approx. 18.78 million tons a year in northern Henan application of compost. As a research subject henceforth, Province, and the annual supply of livestock manure an investigation on the expansion of limit movement compost totals 14.1 million tons a year, accounting area and the reduction of labor costs in the application of for 75% of actual demand. 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