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Redevelopment Value of Landholdings

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Redevelopment Value of Landholdings 03 June 2013 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Integrated Telecommunication Services (Telecommunication Services (Japan)) / OVERWEIGHT Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (9432 / 9432 JP) Rating OUTPERFORM* Price (31 May 13, ¥) 5,050 INCREASE TARGET PRICE Target price (¥) (from 4,700) 6,000¹ Chg to TP (%) 18.8 Market cap. (¥ bn) 6,682.15 (US$ 66.48) Redevelopment value of landholdings with Enterprise value (¥ bn) 8,987.52 Number of shares (mn) 1,323.20 area 28x the size of Tokyo Dome Free float (%) 50.6 52-week price range 5,550 - 3,295 ■ Value of NTT’s landholdings: Based on our research, we calculate that *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each together, NTT East and NTT West own property covering roughly 400,000 analyst's or each team's respective sector. 2 ¹Target price is for 12 months. tsubo (around 1.34mn m , or 330 acres), 28x the size of Tokyo Dome and double the size of Disneyland in California. Assuming it is used for Research Analysts redevelopment into offices, we put the value of this land at approximately Hitoshi Hayakawa ¥5.4tn. We raise our target price from ¥4,700 to ¥6,000 (potential return 81 3 4550 9952 18.8%) to reflect changes in our estimates and valuation assumptions, and [email protected] maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. ■ Urging management to make use of idle land: NTT East and West own a number of vacant buildings, a consequence of branch office consolidation. Not all are suited to redevelopment, as in some cases these buildings still feature telephone exchange equipment and wireless antennae. We are amazed, however, to find that this volume of idle land exists. From a shareholder's perspective, we think management at both companies should take action to utilize these properties. ■ Catalysts/risks: Catalysts include utilization of idle assets, share buybacks, dividend hikes, and cuts in capex. The main risks, in our view, are deteriorating profits at NTT East and NTT West as a result of weak demand for optical fiber, and a setback in management policy on shareholder returns. ■ Valuation: Our ¥6,000 TP references: (1) the ¥5,070 theoretical share price based on FY3/14E EPS of ¥507 and a 10x fair-value P/E derived in turn by multiplying the 10.4x sector-average P/E for the past two years by the 0.95 average for NTT’s sector-relative P/E over the same period (10.4 × 0.95 = 10x); and (2) a ¥6,474 price derived by valuing the company’s real estate assets. Implied P/E is 12x FY3/14E EPS. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 3/13A 3/14E 3/15E 3/16E Price (LHS) Rebased Rel (RHS) Revenue (¥ bn) 10,700.7 10,817.5 10,869.1 10,914.9 6000 120 Operating profit (¥ bn) 1,202.0 1,205.7 1,216.1 1,260.6 5000 110 Pre-tax profit (¥ bn) 1,201.1 1,268.4 1,218.8 1,263.2 4000 100 Net income (¥ bn) 524.1 588.5 554.4 574.0 3000 90 EPS (¥) 432.4 507.1 503.8 562.6 2000 80 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. 16.4 15.6 IBES Consensus EPS (¥) n.a. 474.7 500.2 555.9 The price relative chart measures performance against the EPS growth (%) 17.9 17.3 -0.7 11.7 TOPIX which closed at 1135.78 on 31/05/13 P/E (x) 9.5 10.0 10.0 9.0 On 31/05/13 the spot exchange rate was ¥100.51/US$1 Dividend yield (%) 3.9 3.4 3.6 3.8 EV/EBITDA(x) 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.1 Performance Over 1M 3M 12M P/B (x) 0.51 0.62 0.62 0.62 Absolute (%) 5.9 17.4 49.2 ROE(%) 5.1 5.5 5.1 5.3 Relative (%) 7.4 2.6 -11.0 Net debt/equity (%) 22.1 21.4 23.1 25.3 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, IFIS, Credit Suisse estimates. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 03 June 2013 What is the value of NTT's unrealized gains on property holdings? Amid mounting interest in how Abenomics will affect asset values, we have been bombarded by enquiries from investors around the world as to the value of NTT's property holdings. We could think of only two possible responses to this query: (1) market value, based on securities filings; and (2) an amount based on property tax evaluations, as per verbal disclosure by NTT's director of finance at the analyst meeting. The item "investment property" in the notes to NTT's Annual Securities Report cites a fair Based on securities filings, value of ¥1,433.4bn at end-FY3/12. As the end-FY3/12 book value of these properties was unrealized gains on property ¥801.8bn, unrealized gains on “investment property” owned by the entire NTT Group amount to ¥631.5bn amount to ¥631.5bn. As suggested by the wording, the fair value of “investment property” applies only to land held for the purpose of leasing out; unrealized gains on such property account for just a portion of gains on NTT's broader property portfolio. It would be remiss of us to use this data alone to draw conclusions about unrealized gains on property across the entire NTT Group. Furthermore, of the ¥631.6bn fair value of “investment property,” the fair value of NTT Urban Development “investment property” owned by NTT Urban Development amounts to ¥411.5bn. In short, accounts for roughly 80% of "investment property" owned by other NTT Group companies has a fair value of only group's unrealized gains ¥220bn. Both NTT East and NTT West have a number of idle properties used neither for Purpose of this report is to investment purposes nor business. Without taking into account these (effectively "hidden") smoke out value of NTT assets, we do not get the complete picture of asset value across the entire NTT Group. East and West's hidden assets, absent from These hidden assets constitute former NTT branch offices and telephone exchanges, securities filings scattered around the country. Under the structural reform program the company embarked on in 2001, NTT East and NTT West have undertaken progressive consolidation of their branch offices. This has left several former branch office buildings empty. Neither NTT East nor NTT West has disclosed exact locations for the buildings meeting this description; their addresses had remained a mystery. We conducted our own research using Google Maps to identify or estimate addresses in 376 cases. We then took up the challenge of nutting out values for these properties. Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (9432 / 9432 JP) 2 03 June 2013 Figure 1: Number of properties owned in Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka, Kyoto, Fukuoka, and elsewhere Area No. of properties Tokyo 23 wards 110 Nagoya 45 Osaka 89 Kyoto 34 Fukuoka 23 Others 75 Total 376 Total of 5 major areas 301 Source: Credit Suisse Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (9432 / 9432 JP) 3 03 June 2013 Land owned by NTT would cover 28 Tokyo Domes Redevelopment value of ¥5.4tn Let us start with our conclusion. Our findings show that between them, NTT East and NTT Landholdings are 28x the West have idle land (former branch offices and the like) covering an estimated 400,000 size of Tokyo Dome, double tsubo (around 1.34mn m2, or 330 acres). This is 28x the size of Tokyo Dome and double the size of Disneyland in the size of Disneyland in California. If NTT were to redevelop all of this land and put it on California the market as investment property, we calculate the total value would be around ¥5.4tn. Figure 2: Book value and market value assumptions for NTT’s real estate holdings (¥ bn) 8,000 6,869 7,000 6,000 1,433 5,000 4,000 3,000 5,436 2,000 1,384 1,000 802 0 582 Book value Market value Real estates for business Real estates for rent Source: Company data, Credit Suisse Figure 3: Overview of building areas and market value Site area Market value Monthly Site area CAP Rate (Tsubo = of properties rent fee (㎡) 3.3 m2/tsubo) (¥mn) (%) (¥/tsubo) Tokyo 23 wards 396,153 120,046 2,751,239 5.3 22,455 Nagoya 161,700 49,000 397,730 6.5 15,000 Osaka 319,400 96,788 785,622 6.5 15,000 Kyoto 63,661 19,291 135,707 6.0 12,000 Fukuoka 130,482 39,540 278,152 6.0 12,000 Others 267,849 81,166 570,979 6.0 12,000 Total 1,339,244 405,832 5,435,562 6.0 14,742 Total of major 5 areas 1,071,396 324,665 4,348,450 6.1 15,291 Source: Credit Suisse estimates Note: Rent fees are for rental as offices In calculating the market value of properties owned by NTT East and NTT West, we set individual cap rates and rents taking into account regional characteristics, with advice from Credit Suisse real estate analysts Masahiro Mochizuki and Atsuro Takemura.
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