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2010 Toledo Economic Opportunities Analysis With Toledo Economic Opportunities Analysis Prepared for: City of Toledo 206 N. Main Street Toledo, Oregon 97391 Prepared by: Oregon Cascades West Council of Governments 1400 Queen Ave SE Ste 205A Albany, OR 97322 This page intentionally left blank Acknowledgements Special acknowledgments and thanks are given to those who served on the Project Committee and the Technical Advisory Team. Project Committee Doug Alldridge Karen Gerttula Tad Brown Stu Miller Nancy Bryant Jake Postlewait Mark Camara (ex officio) Tina Retasket Rod Cross (ex officio) Terri Strom Larry Davis Rick Wright Chuck Gerttula (ex officio) Technical Advisory Team Michelle Amberg Dennie Houle Pam Barlow-Lind Steve Larrabbe Caroline Bauman Marguerite Nabeta Jed Cohen Bud Shoemake Tom Hogue Matt Spangler Funding for this study was made available by the Department of Land Conservation and Development, with additional assistance from the City of Toledo and the Oregon Cascades West Council of Governments 2010 Toledo Economic Opportunities Analysis i Table of Contents Acknowledgements i Table of Contents ii Introduction 1 EOA Process Study Area Toledo Economic Development Objectives 3 Comprehensive Plan Goals and Objectives Stakeholder Interviews Community Survey Previous Community Studies The Toledo Community and Economy 6 Population and Demographic Trends Population Projections Employment Trends Employment Projections Summary Economic Opportunities and Constraints 16 Economic Development Characteristics Summary Potential Growth Areas and Site Needs 19 Wood and Paper Products Boat Building, Repair and Marine Industries Renewable Energy and Green Industry Food Processing Small Manufacturing Enterprises Arts and Crafts Manufacturing Industrial Land Needs 23 Long Term Needs Short Term Needs Industrial Lands Inventory and Site Suitability Analysis 26 Industrial Lands Inventory Site Suitability and Availability 2010 Toledo Economic Opportunities Analysis ii Conclusion and Recommendations 33 Industrial Code Recommendations Additional Recommendations List of Tables Table 1: Toledo Population History 8 Table 2: Lincoln County Employment Trends, 2001-2008 11 Table 3: Projected Job Growth in Lincoln County and Toledo 13 Table 4: Toledo Employment Land Needs Through 2030 24 Table 5: Site Needs for Potential Growth Areas 24 Table 6: Toledo Industrial Lands Inventory 28 Table 7: Summary of Suitable Sites 30 List of Figures Figure 1: Average Annual Population Growth Rates 6 Figure 2: Percent of Population by Age Group: Oregon and Lincoln County 7 Figure 3: Toledo and Lincoln County Jobs Distribution 10 List of Maps Map 1: Toledo Study Area 2 Map 2: Industrial Lands Inventory 31 Map 3: Illustration of Select Suitable Sites 32 Appendices Appendix A: Stakeholder Interview Notes 38 Appendix B: Community Survey Instrument 63 Appendix C: Community Survey Results 66 Appendix D: Sample Code Language 72 Notes Notes 78 2010 Toledo Economic Opportunities Analysis iii Introduction In 2001, the City of Toledo adopted its current Comprehensive Plan, which guides decisions about growth, development and services in the community. The policies, goals, and land use map included in the Plan are supported by a series of background documents and inventories which describe current conditions and trends and also project growth and development patterns twenty years into the future. This analysis will be adopted as a background inventory, updating any preceding Economic Opportunities Analyses and constituting an amendment to the Comprehensive Plan. While inventory documents such as these are based on the best data available, it is impossible to predict every trend and economic development opportunity, and therefore it will be important for the community to periodically revisit the Plan and this document to ensure consistency with the community’s vision for future growth, development, and services. This update was predicated by the City’s desire to update the Toledo Comprehensive Plan and development code to better reflect community aspirations and current trends related to industrial development, and will thus focus on industrial and related opportunities. While the data included in this EOA will help the City to understand broader retail, service, professional, and other types of employment trends, they are not the focus of this analysis. This Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) was prepared by the City of Toledo and the Oregon Cascades West Council of Governments under a technical assistance grant from the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). The objectives of this EOA are to comply with Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 9 (Economic Development), which requires cities to maintain adequate supplies of industrial and other employment lands to sustain projected economic activity and to help determine what steps the City can take to better deploy its assets to take advantage of economic opportunities in a manner consistent with the aspirations of the community. EOA Process This Economic Opportunities Analysis begins with a review of the City’s current economic development objectives and an introduction to the community of Toledo, including the area’s demographic and employment characteristics. Using projections from the Portland State University Population Research Center and the Oregon Employment Department, this analysis then reports projected growth patterns and discusses how they may play out on the local level. Due to data availability, the base year used throughout the analysis is 2008. The projections are further refined into specific business sectors using information gathered during stakeholder interviews, community meetings, and from other local and regional data sources. With these specific sectors and their associated site needs indentified, an inventory of industrial land was completed to look for sites suitable to accommodate the projected needs. Using GIS analysis, site visits and Lincoln County Assessor data, industrial land in the Toledo city limits and urban growth boundary were reviewed on a parcel-by-parcel basis to determine buildable areas. Constrained or developed areas were removed from the inventory. The resulting suitable sites analysis informs policy and code recommendations, which are included at the end of the report. 2010 Toledo Economic Opportunities Analysis 1 Study Area The study area for this Economic Opportunities Analysis is the City of Toledo and its Urban Growth Boundary, as shown in Map 1. This EOA will also discuss wider economic trends in Lincoln County and the State of Oregon, and the nation, when applicable. Map 1: Toledo Study Area This map is for informational purposes only and may not be suitable for legal, engineering, or surveying purposes. Users should review or consult the primary data and information sources to ascertain the usability of the information. Created on August 16, 2010 by OCWCOG with data provided by the City of Toledo. Oregon Lambert Projection NAD83. 2010 Toledo Economic Opportunities Analysis 2 Toledo Economic Development Objectives The 2001 Comprehensive Plan outlines numerous economic development goals and objectives, which are listed below. These will be considered during the EOA process, along with community survey results and stakeholder interviews, and any recommended updates to these goals and objectives will be included in the final recommendations. Comprehensive Plan Goals and Objectives The Toledo Comprehensive Plan, as adopted in 2001, outlines six economic development goals and seventeen objectives: Goals 1. Improve the economic position of all elements of Toledo's economic base by retaining and expanding the current businesses while recruiting new businesses into the community. 2. Ensure an adequate supply of appropriately zoned land to provide for the full range of economic development opportunities in Toledo including commercial, industrial, water- dependent, office and institutional service development. 3. Diversify the economic base of the Toledo area and strengthen the role as the industrial center for Lincoln County. 4. Encourage employment and business opportunities that assist Toledo's residents to maintain the highest per household average income in Lincoln County. 5. Assure that regulatory requirements provide for high standards of public health, safety, environmental protection, and welfare but are structured to support economic development. 6. Provide opportunities to develop the full range of commercial, recreational, and professional services to meet the needs of Toledo's residents and others. Reduce the need for Toledo's residents to go to other communities for retail purchases and services. Objectives 1. Promote Toledo's economic, social and cultural image and market Toledo throughout the state and region and where appropriate, at the national and international levels. 2. Develop a marketing and business recruitment plan and program to support existing businesses and encourage new business location/development within Toledo. Improve signage, public interest stories and marketing programs to encourage tourists to visit and shop in Toledo and to reduce "leakage" of Toledo dollars to outside markets. 3. Develop codes and standards which ensure that business and industry maintain the environmental quality important to Toledo's residents and shoulder a fair share allocation of the costs of providing and maintaining public services but that also eliminate unnecessary delays, inconsistencies, conflicts and ambiguities in municipal codes, standards and procedures. 2010 Toledo Economic Opportunities
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