Economic Review 1, 2020
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Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2020:1 SVERIGES RIKSBANK SVERIGES RIKSBANK ECONOMIC REVIEW is issued by Sveriges Riksbank. Editors: MARIANNE NESSÉN AND ULF SÖDERSTRÖM Advisory editorial committee: MIKAEL APEL, HANNA ARMELIUS, DAVID KJELLBERG, DILAN ÖLCER, AND THE COMMUNICATIONS DIVISION Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden Telephone +46 8 787 00 00 The opinions expressed in signed articles are the sole responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of Sveriges Riksbank. The Review is published on the Riksbank’s website www.riksbank.se/Economic-Review Order a link to download new issues of Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review by sending an e-mail to: [email protected] ISSN 2001-029X SVERIGES RIKSBANK ECONOMIC REVIEW 2020:1 3 Dear readers, This year’s first edition of Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review contains articles written before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in Europe. In some cases, this is of little importance, in other cases the pandemic would probably have affected the content of the article. However, it is too early to draw any far-reaching conclusions regarding how the pandemic will affect the economy in the long run, and the questions the articles raise will probably be topical for some time to come. We therefore believe there is good reason to publish these well-written articles. We hope that our readers will agree with us. Below you will find short descriptions of the articles. • Global warming from an economic perspective Conny Olovsson describes how economic theory can be used to understand the interaction between people and the climate, why global political measures are necessary to counteract global warming and which political measures can be expected to function. The most important results of his reasoning are summarised into four brief insights. • 30 years of combating money laundering in Sweden and internationally – does the system function as intended? Markus Forsman describes how the regulatory framework for combating money laundering has developed over the years and how international agreement is reached in this context. After that, he describes in detail how the system for combating money laundering and terrorist financing functions in Sweden, and summarises how the effectiveness of the Swedish system has been assessed internationally. He concludes with a brief comment on the publicity in recent years regarding Danske Bank and Swedbank in particular. • The future isn’t what it used to be – perspectives on changes in the Swedish economy This article, written by Erik Frohm and Stefan Ingves, is a summary of discussions in recent years, both internally at the Riksbank and in various international contexts, on how structural changes affect the economy. The authors begin by describing the structural transformation in the Swedish economy from the 19th century to the middle of the 1990s. After that, they discuss developments in recent decades, with the focus on the effects of globalisation, digitalisation and the shift towards services accounting for a growing share of the economy. The article does not deal with the coronavirus pandemic, but its main conclusion – that it is important to have a good capacity to adapt to comprehensive changes in the economy – has become even more relevant today. • The new macroeconomic landscape after the global financial crisis Björn Andersson, Magnus Jonsson and Henrik Lundvall provide an overview of some of the various structural changes that have impacted the macroeconomic environment since the global financial crisis in 2007–2009: the weaker productivity growth, the lower long-term real interest rate, the growing debts among households and states and the weakened correlation between unemployment and the rate of wage increase. They discuss factors behind these changes and what significance the changes may have for the conditions for conducting monetary policy going forward. 4 SVERIGES RIKSBANK ECONOMIC REVIEW 2020:1 • What is driving the global trend towards lower real interest rates? In a separate article, Henrik Lundvall goes into more depth in the analysis of why real interest rates have shown a falling trend in many countries, a question that is particularly important with regard to monetary policy’s capacity to stabilise the economy. He reviews various structural explanations and examines which factors, according to the academic literature, can best explain why real interest rates have fallen. Read and enjoy! Marianne Nessén and Ulf Söderström SVERIGES RIKSBANK ECONOMIC REVIEW 2020:1 5 Contents Global warming from an economic perspective 6 Conny Olovsson 30 years of combating money laundering in Sweden and internationally – does the system function as intended? 24 Markus Forsman The future isn’t what it used to be – perspectives on changes in the Swedish economy 56 Erik Frohm and Stefan Ingves The new macroeconomic landscape after the global financial crisis 74 Björn Andersson, Magnus Jonsson and Henrik Lundvall What is driving the global trend towards lower real interest rates? 105 Henrik Lundvall 6 GLOBAL WARMING FROM AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE Global warming from an economic perspective Conny Olovsson* The author works in the Research Division of the Riksbank A global climate policy is necessary to reduce global warming sufficiently. With a smart and cost-efficient climate policy, it would not be expensive to limit increases in temperature to 2 degrees by the year 2100. Economists have important knowledge and tools in this area to evaluate which instruments that can be expected to be effective for this purpose. The most cost-efficient measure would be a carbon tax that is the same in every country. In addition, an ambitious climate policy would be a cheap form of insurance against future high and uncertain expenses, but only if it is cost-efficient. Otherwise, an ambitious policy would risk being very expensive and, in a worst-case scenario, also ineffective. The most important way of reducing warming is to reduce the use of coal. Measures that do not contribute to this will be ineffective. 1 Introduction In this article, I discuss how economic theory can be used to understand the interaction between human activity and the climate, why global political measures are necessary, and which political measures can be expected to be effective and which cannot. I formulate important results in a number of insights. An initial question may be what economists have to say about a scientific problem such as global warming. When you think about it, it is actually obvious that the greenhouse gases emitted by people are a result of economic activity – of consumption, production and investment – and are affected by factors such as technological development, economic growth, natural resources and institutions. All of these things are exactly what economists have been studying and attempting to understand for a very long time. But economists also study how economic instruments can counteract so-called market failures.1 The Stern Review from 2007 described global warming as the greatest market failure in history.2 To manage climate change, it is then necessary to make sure that house holds have economic incentives to take decisions that are less harmful to the climate and that companies have economic incentives to develop new technologies that can replace the need for fossil fuels. There is no shortage of suggestions in the general debate for how we should manage global warming. These include everything from taking shorter showers, stopping travelling or stopping having children to, investing in sustainable companies and subsidising green energy. But how effective are these suggestions in actually reducing global warming? An economic analysis is also valuable here to evaluate which measures are good and which are too expensive, ineffective or both. The proposals I discuss in this article include both policies such as taxes and the quantity regulation of carbon emissions, and measures such as subsidies for green energy, sustainable financing and green bonds. The conclusions and reasoning are based entirely on economic * I would like to thank Mikael Apel, Tor Jacobson, Marianne Nessén and Ulf Söderström. The interpretations in the essay are the author’s own and shall not be perceived as the views or stances of the Riksbank. 1 A market failure occurs when free markets cannot be expected to allocate resources in an efficient manner. 2 See Stern (2007), p. viii. SVERIGES RIKSBANK ECONOMIC REVIEW 2020:1 7 research. The article also builds further on and deepens some of the reasoning I previously expressed in Olovsson (2018). 2 The economy and the climate affect each other Before I start discussing various measures to reduce global warming, it is necessary to provide a short description of how the climate interacts with our economies. I have, however, kept this section brief, as several of these aspects are complex and could each be dealt with in its own paper. 2.1 The human impact on the climate The Earth’s temperature varies naturally for many reasons that are not connected with human behaviour. For example, the Earth’s orbit around the sun varies according to a cyclical pattern. There are also variations in the tilt of the Earth’s axis (known as Milankovitch cycles). These and other phenomena affect the Earth’s climate entirely without the help of people. However, humans can also affect the climate, among other means by releasing greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide is the dominant greenhouse gas with a human source and is responsible for about 75 per cent of total emissions.3 Carbon dioxide is primarily emitted as a byproduct from the burning of fossil fuels coal, oil and natural gas. How the greenhouse effect works For over 100 years, we have known that the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere affects the Earth’s energy budget, which is to say the difference between incoming energy – in the form of solar radiation – and outgoing energy – among other things, in the form of thermal radiation.