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Real Estate Change Has Begun 2020 Outlook Real Estate Change has begun Kwangsoo Lee Junghan Yoon +822-3774-1457 +822-3774-1371 [email protected] [email protected] Contents I. 2019 Seoul housing market 3 II. 2019 Gyeonggi housing market 8 III. 2020 supply/demand 12 IV. Major variables/drivers 17 V. Real estate market outlook 22 I. 2019 Seoul housing market Slowing price increases • Seoul apartment prices have been on the rise since May after declining sharply in early 2019. • From January to October, Seoul apartment prices rose 5.56% YoY (based on monthly changes in actual transaction prices). • While apartment prices are rising, the pace of increase has dropped sharply compared to the +17.52% rise recorded in 2018 (based on actual transaction price data for around 50,000 Seoul apartments released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport [MOLIT]). Seoul apartment price change trend (based on actual transaction prices) (%) 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 10/19 Source: MOLIT, Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3| 2020 Outlook [Real Estate] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. 2019 Seoul housing market Widening gaps within • Within Seoul, prices in Gangbuk district displayed the greatest rise, followed by Dongdaemun, Mapo, and Seoul Seodaemun. • Price changes in the three main districts of the Gangnam region were as follows: +6.76% for Gangnam district, +7.17% for Songpa, and +6.43% for Seocho. • Meanwhile, Gwanak, Eunpyeong, Dongjak, and Geumcheon displayed the smallest changes Seoul apartment price changes by district (base on actual transaction prices) (%) 30 2018 2019 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 Source: MOLIT, Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4| 2020 Outlook [Real Estate] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. 2019 Seoul housing market Causes of price upturn • Seoul apartment transactions and prices are heavily influenced by government regulations and interest rate changes. • Regulations and interest rates affect demand. • Prices and transaction volume have moved in tandem. Seoul apartment transaction volume and price movements (Units) (%) Transaction volume (L) 14,000 7/19: Base rate cut from 6 MoM price change (R) 9/18: Higher taxation of high- 1.75% to 1.5% value properties; tightening of 12,000 loan regulations 5 8/19: Proposal for presale price cap 4 10,000 10/19: Implementation of presale price cap; additional lending regulations 3 8,000 2 11/18: Base rate hike from 6,000 1.5% to 1.75% 1 4,000 0 2,000 -1 0 -2 1/18 4/18 7/18 10/18 1/19 4/19 7/19 10/19 Source: MOLIT, Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5| 2020 Outlook [Real Estate] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. 2019 Seoul housing market Rising demand, • Seoul apartment price increases since 2016 have been driven by demand growth amid a decline in inventory for decreasing inventory, sale. • The steady fall in turnover suggests inventory is decreasing. and slowing price gains • The turnover rate has fallen to a record-low 2.8% as of October 2019, but price growth has slowed. (Turnover rate is the number of apartment transactions as a percentage of total apartments.) Turnover rate and actual transaction price trends in Seoul (%) 20 Price change Turnover 15 10 5 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 19.10 -5 The turnover rate stands at 2.8%, marking a historic low -10 Source: MOLIT, Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6| 2020 Outlook [Real Estate] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. 2019 Seoul housing market Slowing demand growth, • In 2019, prices have increased, and transaction volume has recovered. record decrease in • The increase in prices and volume recovery have been driven by demand growth. inventory • Of note, the pace of price increase slowed despite demand growth and a record fall in inventory. • This suggests slowing demand growth from individuals who own multiple homes (for speculative/investment Slower price growth purposes). Increase in owners of multiple homes (demand) and turnover rate trend (supply) ('000) (%) 180 Chg. in owners of multiple homes (L) 12 Turnover (R) 160 10 140 120 8 100 6 80 60 4 Slowing 40 demand growth 2 (speculative/ 20 investment) in 2019 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F Source: MOLIT, Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 7| 2020 Outlook [Real Estate] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. 2019 Gyeonggi housing market Price uptrend weakening • From January to October, apartment prices in Gyeonggi (the province surrounding Seoul and Incheon) rose 1.08% (based on monthly changes in actual transaction prices). • Prices declined in November 2018-May 2019, climbed in June-September 2019, and fell again in October. • As in Seoul, the pace of price growth in the Gyeonggi region is slowing (based on actual transaction prices). Apartment price changes in Gyeonggi (based on actual transaction prices) (%) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 10/19 Source: MOLIT, Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 8| 2020 Outlook [Real Estate] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. 2019 Gyeonggi housing market Falling transaction prices • Price growth has decelerated mainly in areas in which prices picked up sharply in 2018. • Areas in which YoY price growth accelerated in 2019: Siheung, Gimpo, and Gwangju • Areas in which prices displayed either declines or slowing growth: Goyang, Uiwang, Anyang, and Uijeongbu Apartment price changes by area (based on actual transaction prices) (%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1-10/19 Gyeonggi (2.1) (7.4) 5.5 (1.5) 2.8 (3.0) 5.3 6.7 8.4 6.6 6.6 7.9 1.1 Goyang (4.8) (6.7) 5.4 (5.0) 2.4 (5.1) 4.6 3.3 8.9 8.2 3.4 2.5 (3.8) Seongnam (9.7) (14.2) 3.9 (1.1) 0.7 (3.9) 5.4 7.6 8.1 7.4 15.7 19.4 3.6 Siheung 27.9 (2.1) (0.7) 0.4 2.9 (1.9) 5.2 3.8 13.8 6.8 4.7 (0.9) 5.3 Gwang- 12.3 (6.5) 10.7 (2.2) 11.2 (3.8) 7.1 6.6 9.6 5.0 7.4 13.9 7.1 myeong Bucheon 2.3 (2.7) 3.8 0.4 (1.2) (2.6) 3.7 3.4 9.1 8.0 3.8 6.0 4.4 Hwaseong (6.1) (8.5) 10.3 4.6 6.8 (2.9) 1.3 3.8 15.9 16.7 9.5 10.0 2.4 Hanam 0.5 (6.1) 4.0 (2.1) 0.5 (5.5) (0.3) 7.5 29.6 63.7 25.7 30.9 1.8 Suwon (5.4) (11.7) 9.3 0.1 3.0 0.1 13.7 10.4 6.0 5.2 3.4 7.4 0.2 Yongin (9.6) (16.2) 7.8 (2.8) 2.8 (6.4) 5.6 8.5 4.8 0.9 1.4 11.6 0.8 Gwacheon 1.5 (20.9) 29.0 (0.9) (10.7) 1.0 (1.4) (1.7) (4.6) 32.5 22.0 15.4 3.9 Anyang (6.7) (8.4) 3.8 (3.4) 1.2 (8.0) 6.4 5.8 9.3 5.2 10.2 10.2 (0.7) Gimpo (6.3) (7.2) 2.0 (4.4) 7.3 9.9 9.7 21.1 11.1 6.5 20.5 3.7 4.0 Source: MOLIT, Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 9| 2020 Outlook [Real Estate] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. 2019 Gyeonggi housing market Increasing • We note an increasing synchronization between Seoul and Gyeonggi in actual transaction price movements. synchronization with • During down cycles, the rate of decline tends to be similar for Gyeonggi and Seoul apartment prices. During up cycles, Gyeonggi apartments tend to lag behind Seoul apartments. Seoul apartment prices • There are significant regional variations within Gyeonggi. Transaction price movements for Seoul and Gyeonggi (Units) (%) Volume (L) 20,000 6 Gyeonggi price change (R) 18,000 Seoul price change (R) 5 16,000 4 14,000 3 12,000 10,000 2 8,000 1 6,000 0 4,000 -1 2,000 0 -2 1/18 4/18 7/18 10/18 1/19 4/19 7/19 10/19 Source: MOLIT, Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 10| 2020 Outlook [Real Estate] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. 2019 Gyeonggi housing market Rapid decline in turnover • Prices gained mainly in areas in which turnover rates dropped sharply in 2018 (Gwacheon, Seongnam, and Hanam). • Recently, inventory for sale has decreased across Gyeonggi (falling turnover rates). • We believe that price gains are decelerating and demand is contracting quickly in spite of declining inventory. Turnover rates and price changes in Gyeonggi Price change (%) Turnover rate (%) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 10/19 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 10/19 Gyeonggi 5.3 6.7 8.4 6.6 6.6 7.9 1.1 7.7 8.9 10.2 8.7 7.3 6.7 3.4 Goyang 4.6 3.3 8.9 8.2 3.4 2.5 (3.8) 8.3 8.2 10.6 9.8 7.4 6.0 2.8 Seongnam 5.4 7.6 8.1 7.4 15.7 19.4 3.6 6.1 7.6 8.7 9.1 7.8 5.3 2.9 Siheung 5.2 3.8 13.8 6.8 4.7 (0.9) 5.3 9.2 10.0 11.1 9.4 8.0 6.4 4.1 Gwang- 7.1 6.6 9.6 5.0 7.4 13.9 7.1 8.2 9.5 9.3 8.8 7.7 7.2 2.9 myeong Bucheon 3.7 3.4 9.1 8.0 3.8 6.0 4.4 7.0 8.6 11.1 9.3 7.7 8.2 4.3 Hwaseong 1.3 3.8 15.9 16.7 9.5 10.0 2.4 9.2 11.4 11.0 9.7 6.0 7.0 3.9 Hanam (0.3) 7.5 29.6 63.7 25.7 30.9 1.8 6.5 7.5 9.0 6.1 6.9 5.9 2.7 Suwon 13.7 10.4 6.0 5.2 3.4 7.4 0.2 7.5 9.7 9.3 8.3 7.4 7.8 3.9 Yongin 5.6 8.5 4.8 0.9 1.4 11.6 0.8 7.9 9.1 10.1 7.7 7.3 9.8 3.1 Gwacheon (1.4) (1.7) (4.6) 32.5 22.0 15.4 3.9 4.4 4.5 8.8 8.3 7.3 4.2 2.1 Anyang 6.4 5.8 9.3 5.2 10.2 10.2 (0.7) 6.9 8.3 9.8 8.8 8.8 7.8 2.8 Gimpo 9.7 21.1 11.1 6.5 20.5 3.7 4.0 10.5 9.8 12.0 8.5 8.4 5.8 3.2 Source: MOLIT, Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 11| 2020 Outlook [Real Estate] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III.
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