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Joint Government – Humanitarian Partners National Flood Contingency Plan 2020 kiremt Season Flood hazard at Somali Region, Shebele Zone, and Mustahil Wereda June 8, 2020 (Taken by Joint assessment Team /Federal NDRNC and Regional DPPB including Somali Regional State council) June 2020 Addis Ababa 0 Contents Page Acronyms -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 1. BACKGROUND ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 1.1 INTRODUCTION AND 1.2 NMA Weather Outlook for 2020 Kiremt Season: 1.3 NMA weather outlook for the month of June 2020: 2. FLOOD PRONE AREAS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 3. SENARIO BUILDING ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5 3.1. Most-likely/worst-case scenario 3.2 Assumptions in at-risk regions* 3.2.1 Flood risk areas for 2020 kiremt season 3.2.2 Landslide high risk areas for 2020 kiremt season 4. PROPOSED INTERVENTIONS FOR THE MOST LIKELY/WOREST-CASE SCENARIO -- 8 4.1 Prevention and mitigation plan 4.2 Sector-led Flood Contingency Plans 4.2.1 Search and Rescue 4.2.2 Emergency Shelter and Non-Food Items (NFIs) 4.2.3 Agriculture Sector 4.2.4 Food Sector 4.2.5 Nutrition 4.2.6 WaSH Sector 4.2.7. Health 4.2.8. Protection (CP, GBV, GP) 5. IMPLEMENTATION MODALITIES ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 5.1 Federal level 5.2 Regional level 5.3 Woreda/community level Annexes: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 1 Acronyms ATF Agriculture Task Force AWD Acute Watery Diarrhea BMS Breast Milk Substitute CERF Central Emergency Response Fund CP Contingency Plan DRM Disaster Risk Management EHF Ethiopian Humanitarian Fund EHK Emergency Health Kits EOC Emergency Operation Centre EPRP Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan EMWAT Emergency Water Kit ES Emergency Shelter FTF Flood Task Force ICP Incident Command Post IEC Information, Education and Communication IYCF-E Infant and Young Child Feeding in Emergencies LLIN Long-Lasting Insecticide Treated Nets MoWIE Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity MT Metric Ton MUAC Mid-Upper Arm Circumference NDRMC National Disaster Risk Management Commission NFI Non-Food Item NGO Non-Governmental Organization NMA National Meteorology Agency PLW Pregnant and Lactating Women PTAs Parent Teacher Associations RFTFs Regional Flood Task Forces RUSF Ready to Use Supplementary Feeding RUTF Ready to Use Therapeutic Feeding SBCC Social and Behavioral Change Communication SNNPR Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region SMAC Strategic Multiagency coordination TSFP Targeted Supplementary Feeding Programs TMAC Technical Multiagency coordination WASH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2 1. BACKGROUND 1.1 INTRODUCTION AND Ethiopia is experiencing extreme weather variability with some areas experiencing drought, while others are impacted by flooding. Based on NMA 2020 belg weather outlook, the National Flood Task Force had released a Flood Alert # 1 earlier in the season on 28 April, listing the areas at risk of flooding to inform mitigation and preparedness measures (https://bit.ly/3dkJR2o). On 04 June 2020, the National Flood Task Force issued a Food Alert #2 following the National Metrological Agency (NMA) Kiremt weather outlook indicating a very high probability of wetter climate (especially in July & August) in the southwest, western and central parts of the country. Also, the Ministry of Water and Energy reported that current dam reservoir levels (e.g. Koka, Tendaho, Kesem Megech, Tekeze,) are increasing because of a heavy and extended belg rains. It was anticipated that kiremt rain onset will be on time, and this will be beneficial for agricultural activities (planting of short maturing crops), pasture regeneration and water replenishment. These alert messages intend to enhance community awareness, preparedness and mitigation measures in high flood risk areas of the region to minimize the cost of damages on people’s lives and livelihoods. The National Flood Task Force also prepared this flood Contingency Plan (CP) in order to mitigate the adverse impacts of current and anticipated floods based on NMA weather outlook for the 2020 kiremt season. This CP helps to mobilize resources to respond to needs on the ground. The CP identifies two scenarios (best-case and worst-case scenarios) based on the weather forecast and analysis of the preparedness and response capacity of at-risk or affected areas. The NMA forecast for 2020 kiremt season, which formed the basis for the development of the Alert # 2 and this CP, warns that flooding is anticipated in the southern and southeastern parts of the country. Thus, this Contingency Plan provides flood-related requirements by sector for the 2020 kiremt season (July to October 2020) period, including other mitigation and preparedness efforts. Flood incidences were reported from in SNNP, 26 woredas (Beauba Tsehay, Malkoza, Oyda, Geza Gofa, Humbo, Shasego, Limo, Gerese, Gach Baba, Wera Dijo, Sankura, Lanfaro, Konta special woreda, Basketo special woreda, Debub Ori, Jinka, Baka Dewesa, Malie, Kucha, West Abaya, Arbaminch Zuria, Bonkie, Konta special woreda, Wara Dijo, Amaro special woreda and Banestemay. In Oromia, 8 woredas (Digulina Tijo, Chole, Kiramu, Siraro, Shala, Adolared, Gelana and Bure. In Afar, 8 woredas (Telalak, Dubti, Kuneba, Erebti, Korina Bidu). In Somali, 25 woredas (Shilabo, Debewoini, Dolobay, West Imi, Korahae, Dollo Ado, Guradamole, Mubarek, Hudet, Babile, Gursum, Kebri Beyah, Muyu Muluke, Ayu, Gotabik, Gabalo, Denan, Gode, Kelafo, Emi Bari, Mustahil, Alele, Bereano, Adele and Ferfer). Also, in Dire Dawa city council, Dire Dawa city. In total, the floods affected 470,163 people, of whom some 301,284 people were displaced in these areas during the belg season 2020. The following are the list of regions and woredas. Moreover. Landside incidences were reported in SNNP (6 woredas) and Amhara (1 woreda) regions. The report shows that 64 households affected, 9 households displaced, 15 individuals died, 57 livestock killed, 23.25 hectares of crops land damaged and 2 houses destroyed in these woredas. 3 1.2 NMA Weather Outlook for 2020 Kiremt Season: All-weather forecasting indicators show a high probability of a wetter kiremt 2020 season. As a result, Normal to above normal rain is expected in southwestern, western and central Ethiopia. Dominantly normal rain is anticipated in half of the Eastern part. Parts of northwestern will receive normal to above normal rain. The onset and cessation of rain will follow its normal time in most parts. Dry spell and erratic rainfall will likely persist in some parts from June to September. Also, occasional heavy rainfall will likely cause flooding and landslides in flood-prone areas. In general, a high probability of wetter climate will be anticipated in meher benefiting areas of the country. Fig 1: Map showing Tercile rainfall probability predicted for the period June to September Source: NMA 1.3 NMA weather outlook for the month of June 2020: Normally, the kiremt rain is expected to resume in June, however in 2020 kiremt season an early onset of rain is expected in southwestern and western parts. The kiremt rain is expected to overlap with the extended belg rain in most of these areas. The kiremt rain will be anticipated to gradually increase its amount and climatological coverage in other meher benefiting areas. 4 The rainfall in June is expected to benefit the following regions. In Oromia (East and West Wollega), Jimma, Illibabaur, all Shoa zones, West and East Hararghe, Arsi, Bale, Addis Ababa, Amhara (West and East Gojam, Awi zone, North and South Gonder zones, Bahir Dar zuria,), Tigray (Western and central zones,) and most parts of Gambella, Benshangul and SNNP will receive normal rains in most parts and above normal rain in some areas. However, some areas will be expected to receive heavy rainfall. Besides, Oromia (Borena and Guji), Amhara (South and North Wollo, Wag Hamira), Afar (zone 3 & 5), Somali (Fafen, and Sitti zones) will be expected to receive rain in few areas, but other will remain dry. 3. FLOOD PRONE AREAS Fig 2: Map showing flood prone areas Source: NDRMC Under normal circumstance in Ethiopia, flooding usually takes place at the peak of the kiremt rainy season (July and August) in most flood-prone areas. In Gambella flooding often occurs during August and September. In Somali region, heavy rains in the neighboring highland areas of Oromia usually cause flooding during the kiremt season. Unseasonal and above-normal rainfall during October to January could also cause flooding in areas along Wabe Shebelle and Genale rivers in Somali region and Omo River in SNNPR. Similarly, heavy rainfall in the surrounding highlands of Amhara, and Tigray often results in the overflow of the Awash River and its tributaries and flash floods in Afar. Flooding around Lake Tana (Fogera and Dembia Plains) is induced by backflow of Lake Tana and overflow of its major tributaries (Rib and Gumera Rivers in Fogera and Direma and Megech in Dembia) at times of heavy rainfall. 5 3. SENARIO BUILDING Two scenarios (best-case and worst-case) are considered in line with the National Metrological Agency’s (NMA) weather outlook for the 2020 kiremt season. The weather outlook shows that normal to above normal rain is expected in southwestern, western and central Ethiopia,
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