General Report Template

Commercial Demand Evidence, Aston Clinton, 19/04119/APP

Aston Clinton Developments Ltd

Land Aston Clinton Road Aylesbury Bucks HP22 5AB

August 2020

Prepared by

GL Hearn 65 Gresham Street London EC2V 7NQ

T +44 (0)20 7851 4900 glhearn.com

Public

Aston Clinton, 19/04119/APP, August 2020 Aston Clinton Developments Ltd, Land Aston Clinton Road, Aylesbury

Contents

Section Page

1 INTRODUCTION 4

2 POLICY REVIEW 5

3 MARKET REVIEW 14

4 CONCLUSIONS 24

List of Figures

FIGURE 1: OFFICE FLOORSPACE (AYLESBURY VALE DISTRICT) 15

FIGURE 2: INDEXED OFFICE FLOORSPACE 15

FIGURE 1: OFFICE TAKE-UP, AYLESBURY VALE AND BUCKINGHAMSHIRE LAS, 2012-1916

FIGURE 2: OFFICE TAKE-UP BY NUMBER OF DEALS, AYLESBURY VALE DISTRICT AND BUCKINGHAMSHIRE LAS 2012-19 17

FIGURE 3: OFFICE DEALS, AYLESBURY VALE DISTRICT AND BUCKINGHAMSHIRE LAS, 2012- 19 18

FIGURE 4: OFFICE DEALS, LICHFIELD AND TAMWORTH LOCAL AUTHORITIES, 2012-19 19

FIGURE 5: AVAILABILITY VS TAKE-UP, AYLESBURY VALE DISTRICT AUTHORITIES 20

List of Tables

TABLE 1: OFFICE FLOORSPACE, 2018/2019 14

TABLE 2: OFFICE TAKE-UP BY SIZE BAND, 2012-19 19

TABLE 3: AVAILABLE OFFICE FLOORSPACE BY TYPE, AYLESBURY VALE AND BUCKINGHAMSHIRE LAS 21

TABLE 4: KEY AVAILABLE SITES 21

Appendices

APPENDIX A: CHANDLER GARVEY REPORT 27

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Quality Standards Control

The signatories below verify that this document has been prepared in accordance with our quality control requirements. These procedures do not affect the content and views expressed by the originator.

This document must only be treated as a draft unless it is has been signed by the Originators and approved by a Business or Associate Director.

DATE ORIGINATORS APPROVED 20 August 2020 David Leyden David Maxwell, Strategic Planner, GL Hearn MattDirector, Kinghan GL Hearn

Ivan Tennant Matt Kinghan, Associate Director, GL Hearn Director, Iceni Projects Ltd

Limitations This document has been prepared for the stated objective and should not be used for any other purpose without the prior written authority of GL Hearn; we accept no responsibility or liability for the consequences of this document being used for a purpose other than for which it was commissioned.

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1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 GL Hearn with Iceni Projects Ltd has prepared this report on behalf of Aston Clinton Developments Ltd setting out the commercial demand evidence relevant to application 19/04119/APP at Aston Clinton, Aylesbury.

1.2 Aston Clinton Developments Ltd has submitted a planning application for a residential development on part of the Aston Clinton Road Major Development Area MDA site (the Site). The Site is identified in Policy D5 (Provision of employment land) of the emerging Vale of Aylesbury Local Plan (VALP) as an allocation for employment land with a capacity for 5,000 sqm of B1 use.

1.3 This report aims to support officers at Aylesbury Vale District Council (AVDC) in their consideration of this application by setting out proper justification for the release of the Site for alternative uses.

1.4 This report includes:

Policy review: assessment of employment specific policies, supporting evidence and weight to be afforded Market assessment: o Draw on recognised CoStar/Egi data and supplement with locally derived agent o Considering the rate of take up and availability by size and type over time o Considering local qualitative issues in the market Conclusions and recommendations: Drawing together findings in terms of commercial demand and need

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2 POLICY REVIEW

Policy Framework

2.1 The policies reviewed in this section are those that relate specifically to employment land, its status in planning terms once allocated and the criteria that need to be satisfied before approval will be granted for development for an alternative use. The review of policy comprises:

National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF); Saved Policies from Vale of Aylesbu D La Pa a Jaa 2004 (a La Pa); Aston Clinton Neighbourhood Plan (2013-2033) a (a) A 2018 (ACNP); a Emerging Vale of Aylesbury Local Plan (VALP)

Evidence base

2.2 AVDC's evidence base for the VALP policies is the Buckinghamshire Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessment Update 2016 (HEDNA) and the Addendum Report (AR) to the HEDNA produced in September 2017. The AR provides a comprehensive update to the HEDNA. The references in this report to supporting evidence cite the AR only.

2.3 The allocation at the Site is for B1 use (subcategories a, b and c). This report therefore considers the policy context for this floorspace type, as opposed to B2 and B8.

Policy weighting

2.4 The VALP Proposed Submission was submitted to the planning inspectorate for examination on 28th February 2018 and was scheduled for adoption in February 20201. However, it has not been adopted at the time of writing (August 2020). Nevertheless, the Plan is at a mature stage of development and its policies should be accorded some weight in planning decisions.

2.5 Until such time as it is adopted, however, the relevant planning framework is formed by the saved policies of the adopted Local Plan and the ACNP (which, once made, forms part of the Local Plan). In developing the policies for the ACNP, plan-makers would have been aware of the need to conform with the NPPF. Also, so as to avoid obsolesce, it is expected they would have sought to be in general conformity with the policies in the VALP.

2.6 The current hierarchy of documents, therefore, and one that reflects the weight they carry in planning terms, is the:

i. NPPF; ii. adopted Local Plan (where its policies are in conformity with the current NPPF);

1 Local Development Scheme (October 2019) page 9

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iii. Aston Clinton Neighbourhood Plan; iv. Emerging Vale of Aylesbury Local Plan;

2.7 The policy review follows this structure.

Policy review

NPPF

2.8 Paaa 11 a a decisions should apply the presumption in favour of sustainable development. a) notes that, for plan-a, a plans should positively seek opportunities to meet the development needs of their area and be sufficiently flexible to adapt to rapid change.

2.9 Paragraph 81 places a duty on Local Planning Authorities (LPA) to ensure enough land is allocated aa Pa P. I a strategic s aa, LPA b b ugh to accommodate needs not aa a.

2.10 Paragraph 120 states that Pa a a a for land. They should be informed by regular reviews of both the land allocated for development in plans, and of land availability. Where the local planning authority considers there to be no reasonable prospect of an application coming forward for the use allocated in a plan:

a) they should, as part of plan updates, reallocate the land for a more deliverable use that can help to address identified needs (or, if appropriate, deallocate a site which is undeveloped); and

b) in the interim, prior to updating the plan, applications for alternative uses on the land should be supported, where the proposed use would contribute to meeting an unmet need for development in the area.

2.11 While relating to previously developed land, paragraph 121 reflects the emphasis in Government policy around maintaining the flexibility to change retail and employment land for homes in areas of high housing demand, provided this would not undermine key economic sectors or sites or the vitality and viability of town centres.

Planning Practice Guidance (PPG)

2.12 PPG provides advice to Councils in how to satisfy national policy. It is therefore worth noting guidance in relation to planning for employment land.

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2.13 PPG [Housing and economic needs assessment 026 2a-026] sets out the approach that LPAs should use in weighing up the demand and supply balance for employment land. This includes taking into account market signals in order to prepare and maintain an accurate understanding of need.

2.14 PPG a a a b a LPA approach can flex with changing local circumstances and market conditions. The Annual Monitoring Report (AMP) provides an appropriate monitoring tool for this purpose [025 2a-025].

2.15 Also, in developing an understanding of current demand, PPG notes that provision should be sensitive to the specific needs for office, general business and distribution space based on market evidence by revealing mismatches between supply of and demand for employment sites within each of these sub-markets [029 2a-029]

Adopted Local Plan

2.16 Paragraph 213 of the NPPF notes that policies should not b a simply because they were adopted or made prior to the publication of this Framework. Due weight should be given to them, according to their degree of consistency with this Framework (the closer the policies in the plan to the policies in the Framework, the greater the weight that may be given).

2.17 The policies in the a La Pa a a a a a

AY.15 Aston Clinton Road MDA (Aylesbury); and GP.17 Retention in use of existing employment sites

2.18 The a La Pa AVDC a a business park set in amenity parkland and a Park-and-Ride facility on the Site. Policy AY.15 sets out the conditions that need to be satisfied for planning permission to be granted for this use.

2.19 T ba b a e NPPF. However GL Hearn is of the view that saved Policy AY.15 of the Local Plan is not consistent with paragraph 11 of the NPPF, given that the land use required by the policy no longer reflects current need and does not provide the flexibility required to enable decisions to reflect changing local circumstances and market conditions. This policy should there be considered out of date and not material in arriving at a decision as to whether the current planning application for residential development should be approved.

2.20 Moreover, the original MDA, as allocated in the Adopted Local Plan, is no longer relevant to the decision on the current application as the 2008 development brief for a business park was superseded by Aston Clinton Developments Ltds application for outline planning consent granted 11th October 2017 and subsequent Reserved Matters applications. These permitted a housing led scheme rather than a business park, showing an acceptance on the part of the Council that demand for the use envisaged in Policy AY.15 does not exist.

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2.21 Policy GP.17 states the intention on the part of the Council to retain existing employment sites. Whilst the site in question is a proposed rather than existing site, as no employment currently takes place, the policy has limited weight. However it does merit consideration. It sets out the criteria that need to be fulfilled for changes of use, although not all these criteria need to be fulfilled for approval to be granted.

2.22 The relevant criterion for the Site is b) that requires the existence of appropriate alternative employment opportunities either on other sites in the locality or as part of the proposed development.

2.23 This policy is consistent with paragraphs 11 and 81 of the NPPF given that, firstly, it permits flexibility for uses to change and, secondly, it supports the Council in its duty to allocate enough land for employment use to meet need.

Aston Clinton Neighbourhood Plan

2.24 Policy B1 (Community Facilities) a a Proposals that result in the loss of an existing community facility or employment use will be resisted, unless it can be demonstrated that its continued use is no longer viable. This will require evidence that the property has been actively marketed, commensurate with its use, at an open market value for a period of at least 12 months.

2.25 While this policy relates to sites already in use, it establishes a principle that may be logically applied to sites allocated to employment use.

2.26 Policy B1 up-to-date is consistent with the NPPF in striking a balance between meeting the need for employment land, and releasing land from this use where market signals indicate the demand is weak and its continued use as employment land would risk dilapidation and/or no development coming forward.

2.27 The Site has been actively marketed for over 12 months, well in excess of the period sought by the ACNP. The details of this marketing are set out in the market report from Chandler Garvey. On the basis of this clear evidence, the site should be released for the sough residential purpose without further delay.

VALP

2.28 As noted, the VALP is not yet adopted. Its policies therefore carry limited weight albeit the level of a Pa s recognised. The policies relevant to this study are noted below.

2.29 Policy D5 (Provision of employment land) states that employment development will generally be supported in sustainable locations through allocations in this plan. The policy allocates Aston Clinton

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Road MDA 15 for B1 use and estimates its capacity at 5,000 sqm of floorspace. Additional sites allocated by Policy D5 are:

Kingsbrook: 10 hectares (estimated 40,000 sqm) B1/B2/B8 (see Policy D-AGT6); Berryfields: 9 hectares/36,000 sqm B1/B2/B8 (see Policy D-AGT5); Hampden Fields 3,650 sqm B1a, 14,600 sqm B1c. 3,650 sqm B2 and 7,300 sqm B8 (total 29,200 sqm (see Policy D-AGT4); Woodlands, College Road (part of Woodlands/Arla Enterprise Zone): 25,600 sqm B1b, 44,400 sqm B2 and 32,800 sqm B8 (total 102,800 b use) (see Policy D-AGT3 ); and Salden Chase: 2.07 hectares (see Policy D-NLV001)

2.30 Policy E1 (Protection of key employment sites) describes the conditions that need to be fulfilled for development to take place on the key employment sites identified in the Plan. These do not include the Site; therefore, these conditions do not apply.

2.31 Policy E2 (Other employment sites) sets out the conditions that need to be satisfied for an employment site to be used for an alternative (employment) use. The text of the policy is set out in full.

2.32 O , a/ of employment sites to an alternative employment use will normally be permitted provided all of the following criteria apply:

a. Where it will not prejudice the efficient and effective use of the remainder of the employment area

b. The site has been marketed as an employment site for an employment use suitable to the site and location at a suitable price, by appropriate means for at least two years with no viable interest, and

c. There is a substantial over-supply of suitable alternative employment sites in the local area.

2.33 Firstly, this policy does not set out the criteria that need to be fulfilled for an employment site to be developed for an alternative use. It appears to o a a aa . GL Hearn is of the view that this is typographical error that will be resolved through the examination process. GL Hearn has come to this conclusion based on the supporting text preamble to Policy E2 in the VALP which includes:

6.8 Whee hee i eaable ec f a ele ite being used for employment purposes, alternative uses may be considered. Where an application is made for an alternative use other than employment, the following informati ill be gh: [initial points apply to active sites]

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details of how the property has been marketed, including for sale or rent, over what period and for what price (and how the asking price was calculated), what use(s) it was marketed for, where it was advertised, and whether there have been any offers received, and

what other suitable, viable, alternative sites are available locally for employment uses, (this should include an assessment of existing sites and premises, in addition to land allocated by the Local Plan and where appropriate neighbourhood plans).

6.9 Proposals will have to provide evidence that employment use (B1, B2 and B8) of the site is no longer viable through relevant marketing information, and feasibility or viability studies. The following ifai ill be eied: [detailed criteria of marketing information included in policy]

6.10 The above information needs to show that the property/site has been actively marketed for a period of at least two years at a value that reflects its existing use.

2.34 The principles of the Policy are therefore in line with the NPPF in so far as it provides flexibility in responding to market requirements. However given the Plan remains to be examined, some of the details of the Policy should be viewed cautiously. The adopted Policy B of the ACNP provides greater certainty and clarity for proposals coming forward.

2.35 Overall the NPPF, Policy GP.17 of the adopted Local Plan and Policy B1 of the ACNP provide the policy framework that should be applied in reaching a decision on this application. Policy B1 of the ACNP in particular provides the criteria that needs to be fulfilled until such time that the VALP is adopted. The evidenced presented by the applicant provides certainty regarding

Evidence base review

2.36 The Addendum Report (AR) to the HEDNA update 2016 reviews the evidence in the HEDNA comprehensively and provides up to date expression of the demand and supply balance for employment land in the area.

2.37 Also, the AR divides its analysis of need into that for B1 a/b and other uses. B1 c is grouped with C1 (General Industry). This review summarises the findings of the AR in respect of the demand/supply balance in Aylesbury Vale and the FEMA area.

Evidence review

2.38 The review is structured around findings related to Aylesbury Vale and the functional economic market area (FEMA) of which it forms a part. The logic of the FEMA means that, for the purposes of planning for employment land, Aylesbury Vale should not be considered in isolation, but as part of the larger FEMA footprint. There are very diverging views in the report which should give rise to concerns to any reader. N a b a 12 there is some commonality

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between the past completion forecast and the information derived from market signals and commercial activity which suggests continued lack of demand for and decline of B1 a/b floorspace in sharp contrast to the expected growth in the sector in the labour supply forecast. Notwithstanding the report goes onto to recommend the significant growth set out in the labour supply forecast.

Aylesbury Vale

a. Projected demand

Aylesbury Vale completions trend see a net loss of 9,400 sqm of B1a/b floorspace over the 2013 to 2033 period. This is based on an annual average change of -472 over the period 2006-2016. B1a/b sectors full time equivalent (FTE) employment in the bottom up forecast is projected to decline by approximately 1,100 in Aylesbury between 2013 and 2033, resulting in weak demand for floorspace. As a result there is no additional need for B1a/b or B1c/B22. For the same sector and period, the labour supply position assumes growth of 8,500 FTEs in Aylesbury giving rise to 101,000 sqm of need. The divergence between the completions trend and this model is stark and of concern, particularly as no adjustment is made for future changes in commuting patterns.

b. Supply of employment land

Overall, under the labour supply model (preferred by the AR authors) Aylesbury Vale has a surplus of 310,000 sqm commercial floorspace. This consists of a small surplus in B1a/b office floorspace and a significant surplus in industrial (B1c/B2) and B8 floorspace. This surplus results from unimplemented planning permissions with 44,000 sqm of B1a/b floorspace, 114,000 sqm of B1c/B2 floorspace, and 105,000 sqm of B8 floorspace.

Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA)

a. Projected demand

The data shows a net decline in B class floorspace over the past ten years. This, combined with property market analysis, suggests "the traditional B class economy is in decline in Buckinghamshire".3 There is, however, a forecast growth in jobs in the FEMA, indicating a "disconnect" between job and floorspace requirements. This suggests changing working patterns as evidenced by the increase in employment density towards 10 sqm per worker.4 The bottom up forecast for the FEMA expects job losses in B1a/b and B1c/B2 sectors between 2013-33 being -5,800 jobs in B1a/b. However the labour supply model indicates jobs in B1a/b FTE employment could increase in the FEMA by 17,000 over the period 2013 to 2033 .5 Despite significant office floorspace loss in recent years, there has been no rapid rise in rents. T a Ba aa b a a a a 6.

2 Addendum Report, p14 3 Addendum Report, p24 4 Addendum Report, p24 5 Addendum Report, p17 6 Addendum Report, p13

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The completions trend model indicates that the FEMA will see a net decline in floorspace of 342,200 over the period 2013-33. This is made up of a loss of 133,600 sqm of B1a/b floorspace and a loss of 201,100 sqm of B1c/B2 floorspace and a loss of 7,600 sqm of B8 floorspace7. Again it should be of a concern to the report commissioning authorities that such a discrepancy is seen between the completions forecast and the labour supply model.

b. Supply of employment land

Within the labour supply model, the FEMA is projected to see shortfalls of 208,000 sqm of B1a/b floorspace and 120,000 sqm of B8 floorspace and a surplus of 188,000 sqm of B1c/B2 floorspace over the period to 20338. Potential new allocations across the FEMA are equivalent to 333,000 sqm of floorspace or 73 hectares of land. This would be enough to meet the shortfall in the FEMA and create a significant surplus (45 ha) of employment land. Looking at the floorspace type, however, the potential allocations show an undersupply of land for B1a/b (14 ha) and for B8 (10 ha). Land for B1c/B2 is significantly more than required (69 ha).

Findings

A a aa b a a aa a B class employment needs as recommended by the HEDNA. The HEDNA notes tha a that the authorities are not planning for demand that ultimate a .9 Based on potential allocations, both Wycombe and Chiltern/South Bucks will not meet demand for employment floorspace, while Aylesbury Vale would have a significant surplus. T HEDNA a a ang the long-term protection of sites allocated for employment use where there is no reasonable prospect of a site being used for that purpose, the authorities should not over-allocate employment land and need to be flexible over the uses that are permitted aa .10

2.39 Finally, GL Hearn, one of the most experienced employment land consultants in England, highlights serious concerns about the recommendations of future labour supply based growth when compared to past trends and property market indicators.

Conclusions

Policy review

The NPPF states that Councils should carry out regular reviews to assess current market conditions and re-allocate the land for a more deliverable use if needs be. It is a principle of sustainable development that land uses should not be applied rigidly and should be open to change when circumstances justify it. In order to comply with the NPPF, Councils should make use of the tools at their disposal (such as the AMR) to assess whether current allocations are still relevant and appropriate. AVDC has not produced an AMR that reviews take-up and supply of employment land in the district, suggesting its awareness of the current demand and supply balance is out of date.

7 Addendum Report, p12 8 Addendum Report, p26 9 Addendum Report, p25 10 Addendum Report, p29

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Policy B1 of the ACNP provides the criteria to be fulfilled before employment land may be used for an alternative use, that the property has been actively marketed, commensurate with its use, at an open market value for a period of at least 12 months. The emerging VALP Policy E2 is not in conformity with ACNP Policy B1. Firstly, in terms of the time period for marketing that should have elapsed before change of use will be considered, and, secondly, the level of rent deemed appropriate to test the market. Policy B1 requires open market value and VALP a suitable . Nevertheless, both place weight on the need for marketing evidence over a period of 12-24 a a. T available in relation to the Site in question.

Evidence review

2.40 The question for the evidence review is, firstly, whether there exist suitable alternative employment sites in the FEMA and whether supply is likely to be substantially in excess of demand (Policy GP.17) and, secondly, whether appropriate market testing has taken place (Policy B1) which has been provided by Chandler Garvey. On the first point, GL Ha a proceeding chapter. However the AVLP evidence indicates that:

demand and supply within the office sector in Buckinghamshire is likely to be weak over the period to the mid-2030s and that, as a result, the market is in balance. Any additional supply is therefore likely to drive down commercial rents. This is likely to make commercial development non-viable. migration away from B1a/b floorspace over the last decade indicates the viability of development of this floorspace type is already marginal, and likely to be non-viable in many locations and sites. market signals with respect to B1a/b land uses are strongly in favour of adjusting supply so as to avoid further unimplemented permissions and un-used sites. while the AR finds a shortfall of B1a/b floorspace at the FEMA level, this is based on a labour supply model that significantly diverges from past trends and local market indicators. Even under this highly ambitious model, an appropriate response would be to seek to reallocate some of the B1c/B2 floorspace to B1a/b where the market will support such use. B1a/b is compatible with retail uses. Town and city centres across the FEMA are an appropriate location for B1a/b floorspace. The Council is likely to find the shortfall B1a/b will ease with the introduction of the new use Class E from the 1st September 2020 (bringing together Classes A1-A3 and Class B1 into one class). This will allow supply to respond more easily to increased demand for office space in locations where it is most likely to be viable. While at the FEMA level, the AR finds an undersupply of land for B1a/b, the market signals clearly suggest Aylesbury Vale is not the most suitable location for expanding supply of the floorspace type.

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3 MARKET REVIEW

3.1 This section provides an assessment of the Aylesbury office market compared with local, regional and national benchmarks. The quantitative analysis for the District itself in terms of past take-up has been based on transactions recorded on EGi and CoStar 11. This has been augmented through engagement with local commercial agents.

3.2 We also use Valuation Office Agency (VOA) data. VOA data is available at a local authority level and thus is presented for the entirety of the Aylesbury District in comparison to other Buckinghamshire local authorities. CoStar and EGi analysis is transaction-based and thus can be mapped across the District, revealing patterns in urban centres and major traffic corridors.

3.3 The amount of existing office floorspace in Aylesbury Vale District in 2018-2019 was 164,000 sqm. This is 21.0% of the total office floorspace across Buckinghamshire, of which Wycombe has the majority share with 49% of all office floorspace in the county.

Table 1: Office Floorspace, 2018/2019 Per Annum Per Annum Office Floorspace Geography Change Since Change Since (000 ) 2001 2011 Aylesbury Vale 164 -0.93% -0.30% Chiltern 112 1.29% -0.65% South Bucks 130 -0.60% -2.17% Wycombe 384 0.42% -0.66% Buckinghamshire 791 0.05% -0.84% South East 13,295 0.16% -0.40% England 85,461 0.58% -0.01% Source: VOA Business Floorspace Statistics (2019)

3.4 Over the 2001-19 period, office floorspace declined in Aylesbury Vale at a rate of 0.93% per annum. This is compared to Buckinghamshire at a growth of 0.05% per annum. Since 2011, however, office floorspace has declined across all four local authorities in Buckinghamshire.

3.5 When looking at a chart of floorspace for Aylesbury Vale District, it is clear that the steepest decline occurred between 2003 and 2006 with relatively little change since then.

11 Although these are the most comprehensive lists available, not all transactions are included. In some cases, transactions or availability is applied to the nearest postal town which may be in a different local authority to the transaction. GL Hearn have used Geographic Information System (GIS) to accurately present the analysis at a local authority level.

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Figure 1: Office floorspace (Aylesbury Vale District)

220

200

180

160

140

120 Floorspace (000's) (sqm)

100

Aylesbury Vale

Source: VOA Business Floorspace Statistics (2019)

3.6 When comparing the indexed office floorspace in Aylesbury Vale District to the South East and England, Aylesbury Vale District has the steepest decline compared to all wider comparators. Floorspace over the time period decreased by 15% compared with the South East where office floorspace increased by 3% and England by 11%. This suggests Aylesbury is not a location that office based businesses wish to locate.

Figure 2: Indexed Office Floorspace 1.50 01)

- 1.40

1.30

1.20

1.10

1.00

0.90 Indexed Indexed Growth (1.00=2000 0.80

Buckinghamshire Aylesbury Vale Chiltern South Bucks Wycombe SOUTH EAST ENGLAND

Source: VOA Business Floorspace Statistics (2019)

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3.7 The figure below shows the take-up of office space in Aylesbury Vale and other Buckinghamshire local authorities since 2012, being the volume of deals as reported by CoStar database. There has been a variance rate of take-up from 2012 to 2017, with a peak occurring in 2014 driven by large transactions in Wycombe.

Figure 1: Office Take-Up, Aylesbury Vale and Buckinghame LA, 2012-19

120,000

100,000

80,000 Wycombe

60,000 South Bucks Chiltern Aylesbury Vale

Floorspace (sqm) 40,000

20,000

- 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: GLH analysis of CoStar data

3.8 The data below shows take-up data (office transactions) sorted by the number of individual deals. This shows the number of deals is typically around 254 per annum across Buckinghamshire, with Aylesbury Vale District having an average of 46 deals per annum. The greatest number of deals over this period occurred in 2017 with 67 deals transacted.

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Figure 2: Office Take-Up by Number of Deals, Aylesbury Vale District and Buckinghamshire LA 2012-19

350

300

250

200 Wycombe South Bucks 150 Chiltern Aylesbury Vale 100

- 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: GLH analysis of CoStar data

3.9 The figure below shows the office take-up across Aylesbury Vale and surrounding areas mapped according to their respective postcodes. The size of circles (with a larger circle indicating a greater total quantum of floorspace) depicts the total space taken on that site. Sometimes multiple circles will appear in the same spot, with larger circles given greater visibility to better represent areas of interest.

3.10 The map shows the areas of greatest activity for office uses across the area and clearly shows the focus of activity in Wycombe. Within Aylesbury Vale there has been relatively little office activity over this period and what activity that has occurred has taken place in the town centre.

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Figure 3: Office Deals, Aylesbury Vale District and Bcae LA, 2012-19

Source: GLH analysis of CoStar data

3.11 The figure below concentrates on Aylesbury Vale District. The cluster of small blue dots are concentrated within Aylesbury Town Centre, but rarely surpass 1,000 sqm in size. The largest transaction in Aylesbury District during the period was Quotetime Limited taking up 7,413 sqm in 2017 at Hampden House, which is shown as the darkest dot in Aylesbury Town Centre, and is the only transaction exceeding 5,000 sqm. Other clusters of small deals under 5,000 sqm occur at Haddenham Business Park Outside of Haddenham.

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Figure 4: Office Deals, Lichfield and Tamworth Local Authorities, 2012-19

Source: GLH analysis of CoStar data

3.12 The table below sets out the breakdown of take-up by size band. This shows that deals in Aylesbury Vale District are concentrated in the low range of the market: 91% of deals were for units under 500 sqm in the District. Wycombe and South Bucks have a slightly more even distribution of activity across size bands. There were rarely transactions above 5,000 sqm.

Table 2: Office Take-Up by Size Band, 2012-19

Size Band (rounded to nearest %)

Aylesbury Vale Chiltern South Bucks Wycombe 0-185 sqm 75% 73% 69% 58% 185-500 sqm 16% 22% 19% 24% 500-1,000 sqm 4% 2% 6% 11% 1,000-5,000 sqm 4% 2% 6% 7% 5,000-10,000 sqm 0% 0% 1% 0% 10,000+ sqm 0% 0% 0% 0% Source: GLH analysis of CoStar data

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3.13 Office take-up data reports that since 2012 there has been 85,364 sqm of office space taken up in Aylesbury District equivalent to 10,671 sqm per annum. By way of comparison, Wycombe has seen a total take-up of 325,468 sqm during this same period, equivalent to 40,684 sqm per annum.

3.13 The figure below provides data for the total existing office space which is currently being advertised as available on the CoStar and EGi databases. T a a a availability across the area. The greatest quantum of available space is in Wycombe (40,684 sqm) followed by South Bucks (11,516 sqm).

3.14 The figure also includes the average annual take-up figure for each authority. By combining these we can a a a a b a aaab in each local authority area. In Aylesbury District, the available office supply is equivalent to 4.98 years worth of take-up. This reflects a more than adequate level of office supply compared to take- up trends. By comparison, the average notional supply figure for Wycombe is equivalent to 2.69 a worth of take-up. Chiltern has the lowest availability of all the local authorities with only 1.75 years of notional supply.

3.15 Low supply indicates pressure on the market for usable floorspace or hanging market conditions. A high notional supply indicates either lower demand and/or an oversupply.

Figure 5: Availability vs Take-Up, Aylesbury Vale District Authorities

120,000 6.00

100,000 5.00

80,000 4.00

60,000 3.00

40,000 2.00 Years Supply Floorspace (sqm)

20,000 1.00

- 0.00 Aylesbury Vale Chiltern South Bucks Wycombe

Total Available Floorspace Average Annual Takeup Years Supply

Source: GLH analysis of CoStar data

3.16 In the case of Aylesbury Vale, there is a notable amount of floorspace advertised that has actually not been built and is advertised seeking a pre-let. This indicates that there is a high volume of speculative floorspace that is not being taken up by occupiers. Approximately 44% of floorspace in

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Aylesbury Vale is proposed. Taking this category out of the years supply equation would result in a years supply of 2.78 years, which is still considered to be ample supply to allow choice in the marketplace.

Table 3: Aaabe Offce Face B Te, Aeb Vae ad Bcae LA Second-hand Existing Proposed Grand Total Grade B Aylesbury Vale 48% 44% 7% 100% Chiltern 88% 0% 12% 100% South Bucks 86% 2% 12% 100% Wycombe 78% 14% 8% 100% Buckinghamshire 72% 19% 9% 100%

3.17 Source: GLH Analysis of CoStar and EGi DataKey sites listed in the proposed supply (which includes the site in question) include:

Table 4: Key Available Sites Address Type Sqm Friars Loft, Friars Square Retail Centre, Aylesbury, HP20 2QF Proposed 6,968 Friars Loft, 2nd/3rd/4th Flrs, Friars Square Retail Centre, Aylesbury, HP20 2QF Proposed 5,574 Equitable Life House, Walton St, Aylesbury HP21 7QW Existing 5,301 New Office Development, Aston Clinton Rd, Aylesbury, HP22 5AB Proposed 5,110 Winslow Business Park, Buckingham Rd, MK18 3GH Proposed 4,645 1 Triangle Business Park, Quilters Way, Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire, HP22 Existing 3,511 1 Rabans Ln - Cinram Novum Ltd, HP19 8TS Existing 1,604 4th, Friars Square Shopping Centre, Friary Loft, Aylesbury, HP20 2QF Existing 1,486 Block B Waterslade House, Thame Road, , Haddenham, HP17 8NT Existing 1,021 Crendon House, Drakes Drive, Aylesbury, HP18 9BB Existing 1,001 Source: GLH Analysis of CoStar and EGi Data

3.18 The vast majority of large sites are in Aylesbury town centre, but some are out of the town centre, such as in Haddenham or on Buckingham Drive along the proposed East West Rail Line.

3.19 There are also several serviced offices in Aylesbury Town Centre advertising available floorspace on their websites as of August 2020. These include:

Pure Offices, Midshires Business Park, Smeaton Close, HP19 8HL with capacity of up to 30 people in an office along with shared facilities. Temple House, Aylesbury, HP20 2QH - with available offices up to 630 sqft and shared facilities. Verna House, Aylesbury HP19 9AG office spaces with communal facilities. Market House , Aylesbury, HP20 1TN co-work space available with offices for up to 25 people.

Agent Consultation

3.20 The office market in Aylesbury Vale is relatively limited compared to other parts of Buckinghamshire, such as in High Wycombe. Even more so it is smaller than nearby office centres such as Milton Keynes or Northampton. Aylesbury Town Centre has the majority of office stock and also activity.

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Nab a Ba B, b b 1980 ad demand is weakening for this older space with viability issues in terms of refurbishment. Agents indicated that whilst there has been activity in Bear Brooke office park, permitted development has meant that there has been greater turnover to residential uses.

3.21 Demand in the town centre has originated from population serving uses such as insurance, accountancy or legal firms, but there are some headquarters of companies that have taken up space. For example, Agria Pet Insurance took 13,832 sqft in Bear Brook Office Park (formerly the Blue Leanie Building) on Walton Street. Jobcentre Plus, which is classified as government work, took up 19,945 square feet of office floorspace on Oxford Street.

3.22 As indicated in the VOA analysis, office stock has been decreasing in the district. As recorded on CoStar, commercial office market rent sits at £16.22 per square feet (psf) in Q2 2020, which increased from £12.04 psf in Q2 2012. The availability rate, or the percent of advertised (both vacant and not vacant floorspace) out of total rentable building area, is currently 32% (53,174 sqm of available floorspace out of 164,000 sqm of office stock).

3.23 Whilst stock advertised between CoStar and EGi is not always specifically advertised as vacant, if under construction and speculative development are removed from available floorspace, there would be an indicative vacancy rate of around 18%. A vacancy rate of between 5%-10% is in practice ideal for an appropriate level of churn and choice in the marketplace. Over a 10% vacancy rate implies that there is a potential oversupply in the marketplace.

3.24 As areas around the Chilterns and near Oxford have high land values, speculative developments require high rents in order to become commercially viable. Around Aylesbury, typically rental values of £22 can produce viable office developments. Although rents have climbed in recent years, they are still considerably below the level that would encourage investor or speculative activity.

3.25 The Chandler Garvey Market report (Appendix A) indicates that roughly 600,000 sqft of office floorspace has been converted to residential. This looks to be broadly in line with the VOA analysis conducted earlier in this chapter. The report also notes that headline rents in Aylesbury Town Centre are probably £17.50 psf which is similar to the asking rent of £16.22 psf according to CoStar. Chandler Garvey represent the majority of office available in and around Aylesbury Town Centre, and thus are qualified to assess the demand profile of the market. In addition there is no evidence that there is demand for 55,000 sqft of office floorspace.

3.26 Agents have confirmed that the industrial floorspace market is significantly more successful in Aylesbury. Symmetry Park, which sits north of the Arla Dairy factory on the A41, is a good example of speculative warehousing development being completed near to Aston Clinton Road. Unit 1, which

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was pre-let to Global Infusion Group, was taken up in January 2020 and included 75,315 sqft of warehouse space and 8,515 sqft of ancillary office floorspace.

COVID-19

3.27 It is of note that the current COVID-19 pandemic is likely to significantly decrease long term office floorspace needs in general given a shift to home working practices. Whilst this needs to be tested over time, it greatly reduces the prospect of this site being taken up in the medium term.

3.28 An August 2020 Insights report entitled Future of Workplace by Cushman & Wakefield writes that team collaboration in office environments has continued under remote working, and that undoubtedly companies will be analysing their office floorspace requirements. 73% of the workforce in their survey indicated that there should be some level of working from home.

3.29 A May 2020 Savills Research article entitled The return to work expects to see lower occupational densities and a shift to agile and remote working practises across Europe and the UK.

Property Market Summary

3.30 The following key points reflect the market position in Aylesbury:

According to analysis of Valuation Office Agency data, Aylesbury Vale has 164,000 sqm of office stock in 2018/19, or 21% of all Buckinghamshire office stock. Floorspace in the district declined by 15% since 2001. Transactions analysis using CoStar and EGi data number of deals is typically records 254 per annum across Buckinghamshire, with Aylesbury Vale District having an average of 46 deals per annum. Deals are almost always under 5,000 sqm and concentrate in Aylesbury Town Centre and office parks such as Bear Brooke and Haddenham Business Park. Available property analysis for office space indicates a notional supply of 4.98 years worth of take- up. This calculation suggests that there is no need for further floorspace in the district. There is a vacancy rate of around 18% advertised floorspace (of existing rather than that seeking pre-lets). This is much higher than a healthy 5-10% and should be a cause for concern. Needs for additional office floorspace in the short to medium term are completely unwarranted on this basis. Agents have confirmed that there is not a strong office market, particularly for speculative construction which is patently not viable. The impacts of COVID-19 are ongoing, but early sentiment indicates that the effects of homeworking may have a negative impact on office occupier demand.

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4 CONCLUSIONS

4.1 The evidence in this report strongly indicates that retaining the site in question for future employment use is not reasonable in policy or property market terms.

Policy

4.2 In policy terms the NPPF provides the key framework for decision making. There are a limited number of local policies which are applicable and the emerging Local Plan should be given limited weight particularly in regard to the employment policies due to the weak conformity with the NPPF and lack of independent testing. There are also conflicting messages with the a that supports the need for the site as an allocation. Key policy points to consider:

The NPPF states that Councils should carry out regular reviews to assess current market conditions and re-allocate the land for a more deliverable use if needs be. In order to comply with the NPPF, Councils should make use of the tools at their disposal (such as the AMR) to assess whether current allocations are still relevant and appropriate. AVDC has not produced an AMR that reviews take-up and supply of employment land in the district. The original allocation for the site in the Local Plan as part of AY.15 Aston Clinton Road MDA (Aylesbury) expected a full business park. The permission for housing on much of the site reflects the weak demand for this business park and the acceptance of the council that this is the case. The adopted saved policy Local Plan GP.17 is relevant to existing employment sites, which this is not. Notwithstanding it makes provision for a loss of employment where other employment sites in vicinity exist, which is the case on the nearby Symmetry Park site for employment uses which are in demand in the property market area. Policy B1 of the Aston Clinton Neighbourhood Plan provides the criteria to be fulfilled before employment land may be used for an alternative use, that the property has been actively marketed, commensurate with its use, at an open market value for a period of at least 12 months. Notwithstanding that the site is not in fact employment use yet, Chandler Garvey have evidenced marketing for more than 24 months. The emerging VALP Policy E2 seeks a longer degree of marketing required (24 months) which is in any case fulfilled by the attempts of the agent. It also has more detailed criteria which have not been tested at examination and appear highly onerous in NPPF terms.

4.3 In the spirit and direction of the NPPF, any site of this nature which has been marketed for over 24 months should be considered for change to an alternate use.

Evidence

4.4 In terms of the evidence review, GL Hearn has examined the HEDNA and Addendum (AR) to identify the following:

Demand and supply within the office sector in Buckinghamshire is likely to be weak over the period to the mid-2030s and that, as a result, the market is in balance. Any additional supply is therefore likely to drive down commercial rents. This is likely to make commercial development non-viable. Migration away from B1a/b floorspace over the last decade indicates the viability of development of this floorspace type is already marginal, and likely to be non-viable in many locations and sites. Market signals with respect to B1a/b land uses are strongly in favour of adjusting supply so as to avoid further unimplemented permissions and un-used sites.

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The completions trend and local demand model, supported by the property market indicators, direct a future decline in B1a/b floorspace. However the labour supply model expects a change in past trends requiring additional floorspace provision of over 100,000 sqm in Aylesbury which should be viewed with much scepticism given its failure to align with local market feedback. This should provide a concern to the authorities considering the evidence compiled in the AR report. Even at the upper end of the labour supply model, the AR sets out thate Aylesbury has a significant oversupply of all employment floorspace types, which is also the case at the FEMA level when all floorspace types are considered. However there is some undersupply of office space in other parts of the FEMA (and oversupply in general industrial) which Aylesbury might compensate for under this model, if local market feedback is completely disregarded. The Council is likely to find the shortfall B1a/b will ease with the introduction of the new use Class E from the 1st September 2020 (bringing together Classes A1-A3 and Class B1 into one class). This will allow supply to respond more easily to increased demand for office space in locations where it is most likely to be viable.

4.5 Overall GL Hearn and our client Aston Clinton Developments Ltd express serious concern over the HEDNA endations and also suggest that the authorities should be concerned regarding its contents given the very great disparities between past trends, local market feedback and the recommendations on planned employment needs.

Property

4.6 GL Hearn has independently considered local property market data.

According to analysis of Valuation Office Agency data office floorspace in the district has declined by 15% since 2001 and broadly stabilised since 2011. There is no indication to suggest this trend will change and that a considerable volume of additional supply is required. Transactions analysis using CoStar and EGi data number of deals is typically records 254 per annum across Buckinghamshire, with Aylesbury Vale District having an average of 46 deals per annum. Deals are almost always under 5,000 sqm and concentrate in Aylesbury Town Centre and office parks such as Bear Brooke and Haddenham Business Park. The requirement for an inward investor taking a 50,000 sqft + site on the edge of Aylesbury simply has no grounding in the local property market demand profile. There is a vacancy rate of around 18% existing advertised floorspace much of which is not listed as second hand or Grade B. This is much higher than a healthy 5-10% and should be a cause for concern. Needs for additional office floorspace in the short to medium term are completely unwarranted on this basis. Agents and data analysis on rents have confirmed that the office market is relatively weak and that speculative construction is not viable. The potential for a pre-let is almost non existent in the local market. The current COVID-19 pandemic is likely to significantly decrease long term office floorspace needs in general given a shift to home working practices. Whilst this needs to be tested over time, it greatly reduces the prospect of this site being taken up in the medium term.

4.7 Given the above, expecting to retain the allocation indefinitely in defiance of the property market indicators would not confirm to NPPF nor ACNP Policy B1 nor emerging VALP Policy E2, particularly when taken in conjunction with the marketing by Chandler Garvey.

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Conclusion and direction 4.8 The evidence from the AR a GL Ha suggests Aylesbury Vale is relatively unattractive as a business location compared with other areas in the FEMA. The market signals relating to rents, demand for B1a/b floorspace and supply of this floorspace type strongly point to weakening demand in the Vale.

4.9 Any speculation as to whether the Site represents a good location for office space should give way to findings of the market testing undertaken by Chandler Garvey given this relates specifically to the site. The supply of Grade A office space more widely is only germane where there is evidence of demand for such space. The evidence gathered suggests that demand for this type of floorspace is weak and will be adequately supplied from allocations elsewhere in Aylesbury Vale/ the FEMA if required at all.

4.10 While the AR does advocate a cautious approach to the release of employment land, this is on the basis of C continuing to monitor the market and development of B class employment floorspace.12 We cannot find any evidence that this has been done (for example a section within the Annual Monitoring Report). This suggests that the Council's position is based on out of date evidence. The evidence submitted herein provides compelling evidence of a change in market conditions.

4.11 The ARLA / Woodlands site has been let for B8 use, with B1 use purely ancillary to this primary use. This indicates that the demand for employment in the foreseeable future will be for distribution related development where office space should be provided wholly ancillary. It makes the site in question more isolated spatially from a successful emerging employment location.

4.12 In summary, the Aylesbury office property market is focused around smaller town centre transactions and those spaces in existing parks. There are high levels of existing vacancy which need to be occupied before rents can improve. The market remains weak and there is no prospect of an inward investor taking the site, which otherwise is not viable for speculative build. The site has been marketed for over two years which fulfils the policy criteria in the adopted Neighbourhood Plan, NPPF and emerging AVLP. The evidence in the HEDNA supporting the demand for the allocated site is weak and should be of concern to the authorities given its strong misalignment with historic and current market indicators.

4.13 I GL Ha b b a a therefore be released as a viable housing development, subject to wider policy matters.

12 Addendum Report, p25

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Appendices

APPENDIX A: Chandler Garvey Report

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COMMERCIAL VIABILITY REPORT IN RESPECT OF 1.5 ACRE SITE DESIGNATED FOR OFFICES, ALONG THE ASTON CLINTON ROAD (A41), AYLESBURY, BUCKS HP22 5AB

CONTENTS

1.0 INTRODUCTION

2.0 CHANDLER GARVEY

3.0 LOCATION

4.0 AYLESBURY COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MARKET

5.0 MARKETING CAMPAIGN

6.0 CONCLUSION

APPENDICES

Appendix A SITE MASTER PLAN

Appendix B OFFICE SITE PLAN

Appendix C MARKETING PARTICULARS

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 I am Harry Alan Chandler BSc Hons MRICS, a Chartered Surveyor, achieving an Associate Membership in 1989. I have a BSc in Estate Management at the University of Greenwich. I have been specialising in commercial property in the Chilterns / South Bucks / South Oxfordshire area now for over 30 years and have been involved in the advice and marketing of various schemes within South Oxfordshire. I am a Director of Chandler Garvey. 1.2 We have been asked by Inland Homes to prepare this report on the viability of offices on the 1.5 acre site just off the A41 between Tring and Aylesbury. The site currently has planning permission for 55,000sq ft of offices. 1.3 Alan Chandler has been dealing with commercial and industrial properties in the Aylesbury area for over 30 years and has an in depth knowledge of all commercial industrial properties within that geographical area.

2. CHANDLER GARVEY

2.1 Chandler Garvey is an award winning firm of Commercial Property Consultants, with offices in Amersham, Aylesbury, High Wycombe, Marlow and Slough, and is active across The Chilterns, Aylesbury Vale and Thames Valley. We also act nationally for retained clients. More information about the firm is available at www. chandlergarvey.com. 2.2 Our network of offices allows us to offer agency clients an unrivalled exposure to the regional market, something that distinguishes us from most local firms. Our extensive range of existing instructions and regional office network guarantees that we capture more applicants than most other firms. 2.3 Originally established in 1979 as Stupples, the firm has been offering excellent property advice to clients for more than 35 years and despite being one of the longest established firms in the region, has been able to regularly regenerate its corporate image and adapt to an ever changing business world.

2.4 Our commitment to clients has been recognised in the Estates Gazette Awards, the leading property industry awards, where we have previously been nominated Property Adviser of the Year (London & South East). 2.5 We have won the EGi Most Active Agent in Buckinghamshire award on a number of occasions, including most recently, 2016. Year on year, we typically let or sell over 500,000 sq ft of commercial floor space in more than 100 separate transactions. 2.6 We subscribe to a range of industry leading occupier driven databases from which we receive daily email alerts highlighting new applicants in the market. This supplements our own extensive activities. 2.7 We provide a full range of services to property owners, occupiers, investors and developers and pride ourselves on the provision of high quality and cost effective advice. 2.8 Our qualities can be are summarised below. 2.8.1 Leading firm of Commercial Property Consultants, with a regional network of offices in Amersham, Aylesbury, High Wycombe, Slough and Marlow. 2.8.2 Unrivalled market presence in The Chilterns, Aylesbury Vale and Thames Valley, allowing instructions to be covered from multiple offices and applicants to be drawn in from a wider area. 2.8.3 Winner of the EGi Most Active Agent in Buckinghamshire award in 2016. 2.8.4 Year on year, we typically transact over 500,000 sq ft of commercial floor space in more than 100 separate transactions. 2.8.5 Experienced and highly motivated agency team, recognised in the Estates Gazette Awards. 2.8.6 Innovative and creative marketing ideas, with a dedicated Head of Marketing hos role is solel to make sure that all of the marketing initiatives are up to date and working well. 2.8.7 Award winning website that is fully responsive and updated regularly to ensure a high ranking by the various search engines. 2.8.8 Access to local and regional market intelligence from within the property and business communities. Active involvement in business groups, including Buckinghamshire Business First, Buckinghamshire (Thames Valley) Local Enterprise Partnership and HWBIDCo. Strong use of technology, including a

leading edge web based agency database system and subscription to applicant alert databases and property listings sites.

3 LOCATION

3.1 Aston Clinton is located close to the main A41 road between Tring and Aylesbury, approximately 4 miles (6.4km) east of Aylesbury. Aylesbury is situated approximately 44 miles to the North West of London, 23 miles from Oxford and 15 miles south of Milton Keynes. It is located on the junction of the A41, A43 and A418 roads, providing easy access to the M1, M40 and M25 motorways, all of which are in a 20 mile radius. The town has a mainline railway station with a direct line to London Marylebone and a journey time of approximately 55 minutes. London Luton Airport is located 20 miles away. (See Appendix A and B)

4 AYLESBURY COMMERCIAL MARKET

4.1 We have been involved in Aylesbury for many years, and in particular in the last 14 years we have been based in Fairford Leys and have a thorough understanding of the stock of available offices in the area. Probably around 600,000 sq ft of offices that have been bought over the last two or three years have been converted to residential and there still remains very little demand for offices. 4.2 Unfortunatel Alesburs location is not a preferred destination for a lot of companies due to its inaccessibility to London and other parts of the UK. 4.3 In Amersham, for example, on the Met Line / Chiltern Railways 10 / 15 mins from the M25 or Junction 2 of the M40, rents are up to £30 per sq ft in the Old Town and around £25 / £26 per sq ft in the New Town, Uxbridge is around £34 per sq ft. Headline rents in Aylesbury are probably £17.50 per sq ft. 4.4 We are dealing with the Bear Brook Office Park (formally Blue Leanie) in Walton Street (details attached) and the whole property has now been refurbished to a grade A specification by the new owners, London & Scottish Investments. We have completed on the whole of the first floor, which is around 13,000 / 14,000 sq ft to Agria Pet Insurance and they only moved from their previous office on the Alton Business Park due

to the fact that it was going to be converted to residential. We agreed a rental of £17 per sq ft and 36 months at half rent. Also we have let part of the top floor, around 4 / 5,000 sq ft to Identify Group and again they moved due to the fact that their existing property Elsinore House in Buckingham Street was going to be converted to residential. I understand that planning permission has now been obtained for such a change of use. 4.5 Please see below a selection of offices in the town that have been bought for conversion: 4.5.1 Alton House Business Centre, (approximately 60,000 sq ft) 4.5.2 Former Lloyds Bank in George Street (approximately 9,000 sq ft) 4.5.3 Ringwood House, Walton Street (approximately 20,000 sq ft) 4.5.4 Newman House, Buckingham Street (approximately 7,000 sq ft) 4.5.5 Prebendal Court, Oxford Road (approximately 20,000 sq ft) 4.5.6 Kingfisher House, Walton Street (approximately 19,000 sq ft) 4.5.7 Wing House, Britannia Street (approximately 8,500 sq ft) 4.5.8 Lincolns Inn Rickfords Hill approimatel sq ft 4.5.9 Offices in New Street (approximately 20,000 sq ft) 4.5.10 Heron House (approximately 28,000 sq ft) 4.5.11 Oxford House, Oxford Road, Aylesbury (approximately 120,000 sq ft) 4.5.12 Hampden House 80,000 sq ft 4.5.13 Elsinore House 14,000 sq ft 4.6 In addition the owners of the former NHS building, Verney House, in Gatehouse Road have also obtained planning for conversion to residential. 4.7 As far as current availability of offices in Aylesbury is sq ft FT: 4.7.1 Bear Brook Business Centre - 5,300 sq ft 4.7.2 First Floor, Future Centre 5,350 sq ft 4.7.3 The Gateway, Aylesbury Vale District Council 6,780 sq ft 4.7.4 Sunley House, 2,600 sq ft 4.7.5 Elsinore House 3,900 sq ft

4.8 Although the majority of the stock has been bought for conversion to residential, there is still very little demand for offices in Aylesbury and the rents, as highlighted above, illustrate this. Also it is extremely unlikely that an investor or a developer is going to

speculatively build out 55,000 sq ft in an untested location, where headline rents in the town are only up to around £17 / £17.50 per sq ft. For an office to be financially viable in a location rents have to be in the order of at the least £24 / £25.

5 MARKETING

5.1 We were given instructions by Inland Homes in September 2017 to test the market and so we commenced a pre letting / pre-sale campaign for the 55,000 sq ft of office opportunity along the A41. 5.2 We enclose two sets of details in appendix C which we used throughout the pre letting / pre-sale campaign and these were circulated to the following: 5.2.1 Estate Agents Services Several matches made, the last being in September 2018 to 457 Agents. 5.2.2 Matched to applicants via our in-house database as follows: 5.2.2.1 474 applicants October 2018 5.2.2.2 450 applicants April 2018 5.2.2.3 290 applicants September 2017 5.2.2.4 Preliminary details sent to 212 companies. 5.3 Internet advertising: 5.3.1 Rightmove is the dominant residential property listing site and despite being a relatively new entrant in to the commercial sector, has already become the market leader for applicants searching for commercial property with 90% of searching starting on the site. Chandler Garvey has been quick to spot this opportunity and now advertised all properties on the site. We believe this gives our clients a very significant marketing advantage and is driving significant numbers of applicants to view our listed properties. The service offers powerful analytics that allow us to monitor activity. 5.3.2 Novaloca is one of the fastest growing sites. The concept of NovaLoca grew from Managing Director Miranda Munns on eperience of the difficulties of finding commercial property using the Internet. NovaLoca has been designed to make

life easy for those searching for new premises, whether on national, regional or local basis. Users can register their requirements and receive instant updates tailored to their needs, or simply browse the listings to build a portfolio of potential sites Since the compans launch in Januar the number of commercial properties for sale or lease registered on NovaLoca has jumped from 7,200 to more than 20,000. 5.3.3 Zoopla Commercial is a new entrant in to this market and is building upon the success of the residential search site. The commercial search function sites on the main Zoopla site www.zoopla.co.uk.

5.4 ADVERTISING 5.4.1 Very few agents actually advertise in the press these days as everything is now internet based, however we did include adverts in the following: 5.4.1.1 Vale Life 5.4.1.2 Bucks Free Press

6 CONCLUSION

6.1 Clearly no developer is going to speculatively build 55,000 sq ft in Aylesbury in any location; in particular along the Aston Clinton Road, which is some way from the town centre, the railway station etc. This location, at present, is untested with very little infra- structure and support. Needless to say, we had no interest at all in this site from office users, the interest was mainly from residential developers and care home operators. 6.2 We would respectfully suggest therefore that the prefered use on this site would be as residential.

BROUGHTON

Interpretation Panel

WATER FEATURE TRAIL Aylesbury Circular Walk

BROUGHTON NEIGHBIOURHOOD HERITAGE PARK AYLESBURY

Locally Listed Monument Scheduled Monument

BROUGHTON ROAD

Interpretation Panel

Existing trees

Proposed tree NEAP (native species) Interpretation 1000 sqm Panel Interpretation Panel Proposed hedgerow LINEAR (native species) LEAP 500 sqm

Proposed water feature trail

Proposed amenity grassland

Proposed play area Access

Existing grassland LEAP 500 sqm

Existing public footpath

Proposed trail route

Proposed interpretation panel

A41 ASTON CLINTON ROAD Proposed connectivity to wider area

N 0m 100m

1:1250 @ A1 Access 1:2500 @ A3

Based upon the Ordnance Survey Map with the permission of the controller of H.M Stationery O!ce. © Crown Copyright Licence number :- 100017241 LAND NORTH OF ASTON CLINTON ROAD, AYLESBURY ILLUSTRATIVE LANDSCAPE MASTERPLAN

December 2016 ASTON CLINTON SARL 11121301_Landscape MPlan_12-12-16.indd -rev02 50m D9001 04 October 16 06 October 16 31 October 16 Revisions: 00 01 02 1385- 16 Oct 31 Date: Composite Parameter Plan 0m for AstonMDA Clinton Sarl. Clinton Aston Scale: 1:1250 @ A1 Scale: 1:2500 @ A3 Note design details, For Highways includingsite new access arrangements please, refer to andVectos Drawings Information . Key: ground level Clinton Road LEAP NEAP / (Heights up(Heights to 9m) up(Heights to 9m) up(Heights to 9m) 1 0 (Heights up(Heights to 12m) up(Heights to 12m) up(Heights to 12m) (Up to 3 Storeys) 1 (Heights up(Heights to 10m ) (Up to 2 Storeys ) (Up to 2 Storeys) (Up to 2 Storeys) (Up to 2 Storeys) VehicualrRoutes (Up to 2.5 Storeys) GEA Up to 553 Sqm 553 to Up GEA Indicative Secondary GEA Up to 5000 Sqm to Up GEA GEA Up to 2,675 Sqm 2,675 to Up GEA Sqm 4,156 to Up GEA exclude pointany features Elderly Care Home (C2) Care Elderly Local Centre (A1/A2/A3) All All heights are tobut level ridge Commercial Development (B1) Extent of application site(30Ha) Hotel / Pub / Restaurant(C1/A3) and are measured from above finished NOTE: IndicativePrimary Vehicular Route (Up to 3 Storeys ResidentialAbove) Retained ExistingPublic Right of Way Landscapingand Open Space (17Ha) ResidentialDevelopment (upto 35dph) ResidentialDevelopment (upto 35dph) ResidentialDevelopment (upto 50dph)

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9 (c) Crown Copyright 2015. All rights reserved. Licence number 100022432 number Licence reserved. rights All 2015. Copyright Crown (c) 7 7 1 4 3 Survey, 01296 398383 [email protected] www.chandlergarvey.com

AYLESBURY A41 ASTON CLINTON ROAD HP22 5AB

FOR SALE

Site with Outline Planning Permission for 55,000 sq ft (5,110 sq m) of OFFICES or PRE-LET OPPORTUNITY

Location

Aston Clinton is located close to the main A41 road between Tring and Aylesbury, approximately 4 miles (6.4km) east of Aylesbury.

Aylesbury is situated approximately 44 miles to the North West of London, 23 miles from Oxford and 15 miles south of Milton Keynes. It is located on the junction of the A41, A43 and A418 roads, providing easy access to the M1, M40 and M25 motorways, all of which are in a 20 mile radius. The town has a mainline railway station with a direct line to London Marylebone and a journey time of approximately 55 minutes. London Luton Airport is located 20 miles away.

Aylesbury has been given Garden City status and is due for another 33,000 new homes by 2033. In addition, 1 million sq ft of real estate has recently been granted permission at Woodlands, which has also gained Enterprise Zone status.

Road Distances from Aylesbury Bicester 17 Miles Birmingham 85 miles Hemel Hempstead 16 miles London 46 miles Oxford 22 miles Milton Keynes 21 miles Watford 24 miles Luton 26 miles Motorways Junction 9 M40 19 miles Junction 16 M25 via A41 20 miles Railway connections London Marylebone 55 minutes London via Thame & Haddenham 43 Minutes Airports Heathrow 40 miles Luton 26 miles

Description The 73.4 acre site forms part of the former major development area as identified by Aylesbury Vale District Council. Our Clients, Inland Homes have obtained planning permission for approximately 400 residential units, provision of a care home, hotel/pub/restaurant, a local retail centre and a B1 office. Aylesbury Vale District Council Planning Ref. 15/03806/AOP.

The property has outline consent for 55,000 sq ft and is available for sale or alternatively our clients will look at a pre-let opportunity.

Rental Rental offers sought in the region of £24 per sq ft.

Legal Costs Each party to be responsible for their own legal costs involved in the transaction.

Viewing For further information please contact the sole agent Alan Chandler, Chandler Garvey 01296 398383 [email protected]

These particulars are for general guidance only and do not constitute any part of an offer or contract. Details are given without any responsibility and any interested party should not rely on them as statements or representations of fact, but must satisfy themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the correctness of each of them. VAT is exclusive unless otherwise stated. SUBJECT TO CONTRACT 10194 / APRIL 2018

01296 398383 [email protected] www.chandlergarvey.com

PRELIMINARY DETAILS AYLESBURY ASTON CLINTON ROAD

TO LET 55,000 SQ FT

NEW OFFICES AVAILABLE AUTUMN 2019

Location Aston Clinton is located close to the main A41 road between Tring and Aylesbury, approximately 4 miles (6.4km) east of Aylesbury.

Description The property will form a new office development totalling 55,000sq ft and available as a whole or in part. (as outlined blue on the plan).

The property will be Grade A Specification with good on-site car parking. Our Clients, Inland Homes have obtained planning permission for approximately 400 residential units, provision of a care home, hotel/pub/restaurant, a local retail centre and a B1 office.

Term and Rental 10-15 year term on a full repairing lease. Rent on application.

Legal Costs Each party to be responsible for their own legal costs involved in the transaction.

Viewing For further information please contact the sole agent Ref: Alan Chandler Tel: 01296 398383 Email: [email protected]

Aston Clinton, 19/04119/APP, August 2020 Aston Clinton Developments Ltd, Land Aston Clinton Road, Property Market Summary

General Disclaimer This report has been prepared by GL Hearn Limited (GL Hearn) in favour of [Aston Clinton Developments Ltd] ( C) a use and benefit of the Client in accordance with the agreement between the Client and GL Hearn dated [August 2020] GL Ha . GL Hearn accepts no liability to any other party in respect of the contents of this report. This report is confidential and may not be disclosed by the Client or relied on by any other party without the express prior written consent of GL Hearn.

Whilst care has been taken in the construction of this report, the conclusions and recommendations which it contains are bas a b a (T Pa Ia). GL Hearn has for the purposes of this report relied upon and assumed that the Third Party Information is accurate and complete and has not independently verified such information for the purposes of this report. GL Hearn makes no representation, warranty or undertaking (express or implied) in the context of the Third Party Information and no responsibility is taken or accepted by GL Hearn for the adequacy, completeness or accuracy of the report in the context of the Third Party Information on which it is based.

Freedom of Information GL Ha a a a A a ba a b Freedom of Informa A 2000 ( A) and fully appreciates that the Authority may be required under the terms of the Act to disclose any information which it holds. GL Hearn maintains that the report contains commercially sensitive information that could be prejudicial to the commercial interests of the parties. On this basis GL Hearn believes that the report should attract exemption from disclosure, at least in the first instance, under Sections 41 and/or 43 of the Act. GL Hearn accepts that the damage which it would suffer in the event of disclosure of certain of the confidential information would, to some extent, reduce with the passage of time and therefore proposes that any disclosure (pursuant to the Act) of the confidential information contained in the report should be restricted until after the expiry of 24 months from the date of the report.

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