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Somalian Tilannekatsaus Toukokuussa 2018

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Somalian Tilannekatsaus Toukokuussa 2018 1 (125) Raportti MIG-1812688 06.03.00 08.06.2018 MIGDno-2018-40 SOMALIAN TILANNEKATSAUS TOUKOKUUSSA 2018 Tässä katsauksessa käsitellään Somalian turvallisuusolosuhteita ja näihin vaikuttavia merkittävimpiä tapahtumia ja turvallisuusvälikohtauksia, joita Somaliassa on tapahtunut 1.12.2017 - 15.5.2018 välisenä aikana. Katsaus päivittää maatietopalvelun aiempaa vastaavaa selvitystä (Somalia tilanne marraskuussa 2017, 15.12.2017). Katsauksessa on käytetty eri julkisten lähteiden, kuten YK-tahojen ja toimittajien raportointia, joka on ollut Maahanmuuttoviraston saatavissa katsauksen kirjoittamisajankohtana. Somalian tapahtumien osalta keskeisiä uutisseurannan lähteitä 1.12.2017 - 15.5.2018 välisenä aikana ovat olleet somalialaiset englanninkieliset uutiskanavat kuten Shabelle News, Radio Dalsan, Radio Kulmiye, Garowe Online, Goobjoog News, Mareeg.com, Radio Risaala, Somali Update ja Allgalgaduud Media. Somalian epävakauteen liittyvien välikohtausten ja niissä aiheutuneiden henkilövahinkojen lukumäärän osalta keskeisenä lähteenä on käytetty ACLED1 (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project) tietokannan tietoja. Katsaus keskittyy Somalian turvallisuustilanteeseen; muita ajankohtaisia teemoja käsitellään muissa maatietopalvelun tuotteissa. Toimittajien työskentelyolosuhteet Somaliassa ovat vaikeat ja vaaralliset. Etenkin al-Shabaabin alueilta raportointi on hankalaa ja vaarallista, eikä kaikista tapahtumista ole välttämättä saatavilla varmennettua tietoa. Lisäksi monista turvallisuuteen vaikuttavista välikohtauksista saatavat tiedot ovat puutteellisia tai konfliktiin osallistuvan osapuolen ilmoittamia. Aseellisten yhteenottojen vaikutuksista ja niissä menehtyneiden tai haavoittuneiden lukumääristä ei usein ole saatavilla tarkkoja tietoja. 1 ACLED-tutkimuslaitos kerää ja analysoi poliittiseen väkivaltaan liittyvää tietoa kehittyvissä maissa. https://www.acleddata.com/ MIG-1812688 2 (125) RAPORTTI Sisällys 1. Maan yleinen tilanne ....................................................................................................................4 1.1. Poliittinen tilanne ja kehitys................................................................................................4 1.2. Ihmisoikeudet.....................................................................................................................6 2. Maan yleinen turvallisuustilanne ..................................................................................................7 2.1. Konfliktin luonne ja osapuolet..........................................................................................12 2.1.1. Valtiolliset turvallisuusjoukot .........................................................................................13 2.1.2. Valtiota vastustavat ja muut aseelliset ryhmät..............................................................17 2.2. Konfliktin vaikutukset siviiliväestöön................................................................................21 3. Turvallisuustilanne alueittain......................................................................................................25 3.1. Lower Jubba ....................................................................................................................25 3.2. Gedo................................................................................................................................27 3.3. Bay...................................................................................................................................30 3.4. Bakool..............................................................................................................................33 3.5. Middle Jubba ...................................................................................................................35 3.6. Lower Shabelle................................................................................................................36 3.7. Benadir - Mogadishu........................................................................................................42 3.8. Middle Shabelle ...............................................................................................................50 3.9. Hiiraan .............................................................................................................................53 3.10. Galgaduud....................................................................................................................58 3.11. Mudug ..........................................................................................................................59 3.12. Pohjois-Somalia: Puntmaa, kiistellyt Soolin ja Sanaagin maakunnat ja Somalimaa....61 4. Humanitaarinen tilanne ja maan sisäisesti siirtymään joutuneiden tilanne ................................68 5. Humanitaarinen tilanne alueittain...............................................................................................75 5.1. Lower Jubba ....................................................................................................................75 5.2. Gedo................................................................................................................................76 5.3. Bay...................................................................................................................................77 5.4. Bakool..............................................................................................................................79 5.5. Middle Jubba ...................................................................................................................80 5.6. Lower Shabelle................................................................................................................81 5.7. Benadir - Mogadishu........................................................................................................82 5.8. Middle Shabelle ...............................................................................................................83 5.9. Hiiraan .............................................................................................................................84 5.10. Galgaduud....................................................................................................................85 5.11. Mudug ..........................................................................................................................86 5.12. Pohjois-Somalia: Puntmaa ja Somalimaa....................................................................87 6. Lähteet: ......................................................................................................................................90 MIG-1812688 3 (125) RAPORTTI Somalian liittovaltio. Lähde: Jason Mosley, Chatham House 2015. MIG-1812688 4 (125) RAPORTTI 1. Maan yleinen tilanne 1.1. Poliittinen tilanne ja kehitys Poliittisesti Somalian olosuhteet ovat toukokuussa 2018 epävakaat. Sisäpolitiikalle ovat olleet edellisen seurantajakson jälkeen ominaista poliittisten instituutioiden keskinäinen valtataistelu, jolle voimassa olevan perustuslain epätäsmälliset normit ja vakiintumattomat käytännöt ovat jättäneet tilaa. Tämä näkyy varsinkin Somalian keskushallinnon ja osavaltioiden välisissä suhteissa, mutta myös keskushallinnon sisällä poliittisten instituutioiden keskinäisissä suhteissa. Somalian politiikkaan kytkeytyy keskeisesti klaaniajattelut. Vakavien poliittisten ristiriitojen aikana poliitikot tukeutuvat omiin klaaneihinsa ja tarvittaessa niiden aseellisiin joukkoihin. Somalian liittovaltion keskushallinnon ja osavaltioiden väliset suhteet ovat pysyneet jännitteisinä. Osavaltioiden näkemyksen mukaan keskushallinto on tehnyt ratkaisuita ilman, että se olisi konsultoinut riittävästi osavaltioiden hallintoja. Keskushallinto puolestaan on syyttänyt osavaltioita maan ulkopolitiikkaan puuttumisesta. Tämä on näkynyt varsinkin suhtautumistavassa Lähi-idässä meneillään olevaan vastakkainasetteluun Qatarin sekä Saudi-Arabian ja Arabiemiraattien välillä. Somalian keskushallinto on pyrkinyt pysymään puolueettomana ja olemaan liittoutumatta kummankaan osapuolen kanssa, kun taas osavaltiot ovat asettuneet Saudi-Arabian ja Arabiemiraattien puolelle. Aihetta koskevat näkemyserot johtivat vakavaan välirikkoon osavaltioiden ja liittovaltion keskushallinnon välisissä suhteissa. Osavaltioiden presidentit päättivät loppuvuodesta 2017 keskeyttää kaiken yhteistyön keskushallinnon kanssa. Jännitteet ovat osoitus Somalian hallinnon rakenteiden keskeneräisyydestä ja haavoittuvuudesta.2 Poliittiset näkemyserot liittovaltion parlamentin puhemiehen Mohamed Osman Jawarin ja presidentti Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed ”Farmajon” johtaman hallituksen välillä kärjistyivät kevään aikana erittäin vakaviksi. Osapuolilla oli erilaisia käsityksiä mm. parlamentin ja hallituksen roolista ja työnjaosta. Lisäksi monet ministereistä ja parlamenttiedustajista pitivät Jawaria paitsi esteenä uuden perustuslain laatimisprosessille, niin he myös syyttivät puhemiestä vallan väärinkäytöksistä. Näkemyserojen seurauksena presidentti liittolaisineen pyrki erottamaan puhemiehen parlamentissa pidettävässä äänestyksessä. Mahdollista epäluottamusta ja siitä aiheutuvaa konfliktia ennakoiden osapuolet rekrytoivat pääkaupungissa omia klaanijoukkojaan. Jawaria tukevat sotilaat asettuivat parlamenttirakennukseen estääkseen luottamusäänestyksen. Samaan aikaan presidentin ja hallituksen puolella olevat sotilaat asettuivat rakennuksen ulkopuolelle. Vasta AMISOM-joukkojen väliintulo esti tilanteen eskaloitumisen väkivallaksi.
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