POPULATION and DEVELOPMENT in the SAHEL: Policy Choices to Catalyze a Demographic
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POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAHEL: Policy Choices to Catalyze a Demographic Public Disclosure Authorized Dividend DISCUSSION PAPER AUGUST 2016 Meera Shekar Abdo Yazbeck Public Disclosure Authorized Rifat Hasan Anne Bakilana Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAHEL: Policy Choices to Catalyze a Demographic Dividend Meera Shekar, Abdo Yazbeck, Rifat Hasan and Anne Bakilana With contributions from Corrina Moucheraud, Sarah Castle, Latif Dramani, Aissatou Diack, Haidara Ousmane Diadie, Djibrilla Karamoko, Ibrahim Magazi i Health, Nutrition and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper This series is produced by the Health, Nutrition, and Population (HNP) Global Practice of the World Bank Group. The papers in this series aim to provide a vehicle for publishing preliminary results on HNP topics to encourage discussion and debate. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank Group, to its affiliated organizations or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Citation and the use of material presented in this series should take into account this provisional character. For information regarding the HNP Discussion Paper Series, please contact the Editor, Martin Lutalo at [email protected] or Erika Yanick at [email protected]. © 2014 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 All rights reserved. ii Health, Nutrition and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper Population and Development in the Sahel: Policy Choices to Catalyze a Demographic Dividend HNP Global Practice, World Bank, Washington, DC Abstract: The demographic transition in the Sahel region has been slower than that in the rest of the world. Although child mortality rates have declined in recent decades, they are still higher in West Africa than in other regions. Furthermore, the fertility decline has progressed very slowly, with some countries seeing stalls and others even an increase in birth rates. The speed with which this transition takes place has a critical impact on a population’s age structure and future potential for economic productivity. The current rates of change in the Sahelian subregion will make it unlikely that countries will achieve an age structure that will create a youth bulge of a healthy, well-nourished, and educated cohort ready to enter a modern labor market to capture a sizable demographic dividend. Once missed, this opportunity for a demographic dividend will not return. This analysis uses quantitative data triangulated with the qualitative findings and policy analyses to identify the triggers necessary to accelerate the demographic dividend in this subregion. Keywords: Sahel, demography, demographic dividend, development Disclaimer: The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in the paper are entirely those of the authors, and do not represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Correspondence Details: Meera Shekar, The World Bank, Health, Nutrition & Population, 1818 H. Street, NW, Washington DC 20433, United States, +1 (202) 473-6029, [email protected], www.worldbank.org. iii iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................................. VII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... VIII POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAHEL .......................................................................................... VIII POPULATION SIZE, STRUCTURE, MORTALITY, AND FERTILITY ...................................................................... VIII OPPORTUNITIES IN THE POLICY SPACE........................................................................................................ IX GOING FORWARD: SHORT-, MEDIUM-, AND LONGER-TERM ACTIONS ............................................................. X ABBREVIATIONS ..................................................................................................................................... XIV PART 1 – INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT ............................................................................................... 1 THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND ...................................................................................................................... 1 SOURCES AND SPEED OF POPULATION GROWTH .......................................................................................... 4 GENESIS AND OBJECTIVE OF THIS REPORT .................................................................................................. 4 POPULATION, THE WORLD BANK, AND PARTNERSHIPS .................................................................................. 5 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................................................... 6 PART II – THE DEMOGRAPHIC PICTURE: QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS ................................................. 7 POPULATION SIZE AND RATES OF GROWTH .................................................................................................. 7 POPULATION DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE .................................................................................................... 8 DETERMINANTS OF HIGH FERTILITY IN THE REGION .................................................................................... 11 DEMAND FOR CHILDREN AND CONTRACEPTIVE USE .................................................................................... 14 PART III – DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER: QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS ..................................................... 19 THE DEMAND FOR CHILDREN ..................................................................................................................... 19 FINDINGS ON SOCIOCULTURAL FACTORS .................................................................................................... 21 FAMILY PLANNING SERVICE PROVISION AND TRAINING OF WORKERS .......................................................... 23 POPULATION GROWTH, MIGRATION, AND URBAN LIVING ............................................................................. 24 EDUCATION AND TRAINING ......................................................................................................................... 25 YOUTH EMPLOYMENT AND THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT ............................................................................ 27 BANKING AND SAVINGS .............................................................................................................................. 28 KEY MESSAGES FROM THE QUALITATIVE INQUIRY ....................................................................................... 29 PART IV – POLICY SPACE ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................... 31 POLICY MAPPING: A GLOBAL REVIEW OF EVIDENCE ................................................................................... 31 Family Planning ................................................................................................................................... 31 Age at Marriage ................................................................................................................................... 34 Infant and Child Health ........................................................................................................................ 35 Education ............................................................................................................................................ 36 Main Messages from the Global Review of Evidence ......................................................................... 37 THE FOUR-COUNTRY POLICY SPACE ANALYSIS .......................................................................................... 40 Burkina Faso ....................................................................................................................................... 40 Côte d’Ivoire ........................................................................................................................................ 42 Mali ...................................................................................................................................................... 44 Niger .................................................................................................................................................... 47 Main Messages from Policy Space Analysis ....................................................................................... 50 PART V – PRIORITIES FOR POPULATION IN THE SAHEL .................................................................... 52 WHAT IS THE POPULATION PICTURE IN THE SAHEL? ................................................................................... 52 WHY HAS THE REGION LAGGED ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION?......................................................... 53 HOW CAN SAHEL COUNTRIES ADDRESS POPULATION DYNAMICS? .............................................................. 54 A FEW CONCLUDING THOUGHTS ................................................................................................................ 55 v APPENDIX 1: METHODOLOGY ...............................................................................................................