Demographic Dividend Potential For Africa

Some Findings from Two WBG Reports

Washington, April, 2015 Population Projections Medium Fertility Scenario 4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000

0 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 2052 2055 2058 2061 2064 2067 2070 2073 2076 2079 2082 2085 2088 2091 2094 2097 2100 East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: adapted to World Bank regions using data from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). Dividend or Disaster?

Highest fertility rates in the world are associated with:

• High maternal and child mortality • Low women’s empowerment • Low investment in education • High dependency ratios • Youth employment challenges Background papers (regional report)

1 Literature Review Demographics 12 Aging and in Africa

2 Population polices in Africa 13 Source economic growth in Africa

3 Literature Review Demographic Dividend 14 Savings in Africa

4 Social determinants in Africa 15 Model of the Economic Effects of Fertility Change

5 Proximate determinants of Africa 16 Case Study – Pakistan and Bangladesh

6 Supply Side of Family Planning 17 Case Study – Nigeria and Kenya

7 18 Case Study – Ethiopia and Ghana The Demographic Transition and Urbanization

8 The Effect of Demographic Transition on Child 19 Case Study - DRC Health 9 The Effect of Demographic Transition on 20 Case Study - Brazil Education 4 10 The Youth Bulge and Labor Markets

11 Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation Africa’s rise: Twenty years of sustained economic growth have established that Africa can find its own path to successful development. 1050

1000

950

900

850

800

750

Real GDP per 2005 prices) capita (US$ at 700

650

Actual Trend

Source: World Development Indicators. Mortality Trends Fertility Trends Heterogeneity of Fertility Rates in Africa

Total Fertility Rates Total FertilityAFRICA Rates AFRICATFR TFR 1.59 - 2.64

1.59 - 2.643.05 - 3.59

3.05 - 3.593.85 - 4.62

3.85 - 4.624.69 - 5.50

4.69 - 5.505.74 - 6.92 5.74 - 6.92 8 Different Rates of Change How a Population Bulge is Created Age Structure Transformation Female Education

12 *Various DHS Surveys. Macro International Inc. Calverton, Maryland Contributions of age structure to recent changes in resources per child • Demography and Health (children and mothers) • Family Planning • Urbanization • Female Labor Force Participation • Youth Bulge and Labor Markets • Sources of Economic Growth • Savings and Financial Institutions • Aging Other Sectors covered by the Regional Report Optimism, but … .Reasons for Optimism: • Child Mortality Declining Fast • Rapid enrollment in schooling for girls • Economic dynamism in Africa (potential fiscal space) .But the Dividend is not automatic and some countries are lagging considerably on the demographic transition Dividend Policies and Timing

I. Managing/speeding up the Demographic Transition • Child Mortality/Morbidity • Female Education • Social Norms • Family Planning II.1st Economic Dividend: Youth Bulge to Workforce • Skills/education • Jobs, Jobs, Jobs (where from?) • Domestic saving and FDI III.2nd Economic Dividend: Savings of the Cohort • Financial institutions/mechanisms • Savings policy (e.g. Pensions) Second Study: Sahel Demography .Stunted Demographic Transition: • Mortality has started to decline • Fertility has not declined consistently • Implications to health and nutrition • Implications to dependency ratios (population pyramid) • Implications to poverty reduction .Three Analytical Lenses • Quantitative analysis of drivers • Qualitative analysis (focus groups and informant interviews) • Policy mapping Main Findings (Sahel)

. While Mortality is declining, it is still too high . Very high demand for children, even in urban settings • Retirement security (concerns about child survival) • Cultural norms • Gender power relationships . Challenges in Family Planning Programs . Education sector limitations, especially for girls . Paper Policies • Limited prioritization • Major implementation challenges (budgets and institutions)