2. Horizontal Inequalities in Ghana, Côte D'ivoire, Nigeria, and Mali
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98900 Regional Imbalances, Horizontal Inequalities, and Violent Conflicts: Public Disclosure Authorized Insights from Four West African Countries Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Arnim Langer and Frances Stewart Public Disclosure Authorized Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Group World Bank 2015 1 Table of Contents Abbreviations .................................................................................................... 3 1. Introduction ................................................................................................... 4 2. Horizontal inequalities in Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Mali ................... 8 2.1 Ghana ................................................................................................................. 8 2.2 Côte d’Ivoire ..................................................................................................... 18 2.3 Nigeria .............................................................................................................. 24 2.4 Mali .................................................................................................................. 30 2.5 HIs: A comparative assessment .......................................................................... 35 3. An overview of causes of inequalities ............................................................ 36 4. Recent policies toward HIs ............................................................................ 40 5. From horizontal inequalities to violent conflict: Insights from our four case studies .............................................................................................................. 47 5.1 Understanding Côte d’Ivoire’s descent into violence .......................................... 48 5.2 Nigeria’s political turmoil and violent conflict .................................................... 50 5.3 Explaining Ghana’s national stability and ethnic conflicts in the north ................ 52 5.4 Mali’s Tuareg rebellion ...................................................................................... 55 5.5 Some concluding considerations on the relationship between horizontal inequalities and conflict .......................................................................................... 57 6. Conclusions and policy recommendations ..................................................... 59 References ........................................................................................................ 67 Appendix: Overview of key political events in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria .............................................................................................................. 77 2 Abbreviations AQIM al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb DHS Demographic and Health Survey ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States FPI Front Populaire Ivoirien HDRO Human Development Report Office HI horizontal inequality MDG Millennium Development Goals MIA Mouvement Islamique d l’Azawad MLNA Mouvement National pour la Liberation de l’Azawad MPI Multidimensional Poverty Index PSPSDN Le Programme Spécial pour la Paix et le Développement des Régions du Nord PSRP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper RDR Rassemblement des Républicains de Côte d'Ivoire UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund 3 1. Introduction Horizontal inequalities (HIs) within a country, or inequalities among groups, have been shown to be an important source of violent conflict (Stewart, 2008; Cederman et al., 2011; Cederman et al., 2013). Relevant group categorizations include religion, ethnicity, and region. Generally, more attention has been paid to vertical inequalities, which consist of inequalities among individuals or households, than to horizontal inequalities, in measurement, analysis, and policy. Yet, HIs are more important in some significant respects, particularly as a cause of violent conflict and a source of injustice. They are highly relevant in most West African countries, not only because these countries are ethnically, religiously, and regionally heterogeneous, but also because quite a few of them have been confronted with violent conflicts and other types of violent disturbances in the recent past. People have multiple identities and hence can be grouped in a variety of ways. Accordingly, HIs can also be measured in different ways. Ethnicity,1 language, religion, race, and region are examples of potentially relevant and salient group categorizations. While identity groups are socially constructed, they can nonetheless be deeply felt, or perceived to be “natural” or “age-old” differences and categorizations. Salient categories vary across societies and time, depending on historical experience, group leaders, the media, and the contemporary context, particularly in relation to how group members perceive their treatment by governments and others, and the way in which groups are used by potential leaders as a mechanism for mobilization and gaining power.2 Horizontal inequalities are multidimensional: significant dimensions include political power at many levels; status (including levels of wealth); and cultural status recognition. Horizontal inequalities along any of these dimensions can be a cause of grievance, especially if inequalities are experienced simultaneously along each dimension. The combination of political HIs (or exclusion) with cultural HIs is particularly likely to lead to group mobilization, because political exclusion gives leaders a strong incentive to mobilize supporters, while cultural inequality generates strong grievances among potential supporters, who are therefore ripe for mobilization (Langer, 2005; Stewart, 2008). There is mounting empirical evidence, across countries and within them, that large HIs raise the potential for conflict (see for example Mancini, 2005; Murshed and Gates, 2005; Brown, 2008; Østby, 2008; Cederman et al., 2011; Cederman et al., 2013). Moreover, the evidence shows that conflict is particularly likely if significant political and economic and social inequalities are both simultaneously present and run in the same direction (Langer, 2005; Cederman et al., 2011). However, it is not only crucial to analyze and track HIs because of the threat of violent conflict, but also because group inequalities are 1 Broadly defined as “any group attribute that provides recognition or definition, reference, affinity, coherence and meaning for individual members of the group, acting individually or collectively” (Osaghae and Suberu, 2005, p. 5). 2 In some contexts group alliances offer the best potential for achieving power. Consequently, the emphasis on differences within such an alliance are minimized, and those with outsiders are emphasized (see Posner, 2004). 4 fundamentally unjust, as people suffer or are privileged simply because of the group to which they belong, rather than their individual merit or efforts. In analyzing HIs in particular cases, the first requirement is to identify relevant group categories. We should emphasize that membership in different categories may sometimes overlap, partially or wholly—for example, people of one ethnicity may all (or mostly) adhere to one religion, and people of another ethnicity to a different religion; and members of a particular ethnicity or religion are generally concentrated in particular regions. Sometimes—for example, with respect to religion, ethnicity, and region—it is difficult to know which is the more salient category, and this can change over time.3 Where there is considerable overlap, one can use one category as a proxy for the other(s) in measurement and in some types of policy. In the case of West Africa, there is a strong overlap between region and ethnicity, since ethnic identities develop as people live in proximity and develop a common language and culture. While migration (especially to the capital city) has diluted the identification of ethnicity and region, it remains strong. In this paper, mainly due to data availability, the bulk of our evidence relates to regional HIs. Given the overlap between region and ethnicity, this also provides a guide to ethnic HIs (and in some cases religious HIs, too) but we cannot infer from this that regional inequalities are more relevant than ethnic ones to political developments, including conflict. Indeed, there are strong reasons to think that in many sub-Saharan countries, people primarily mobilize by ethnicity (or by some coalition of ethnicities) (Posner, 2005; Guichaoua, 2006; Guichaoua, 2012). In this paper we will review the prevailing HIs and their management in four West African countries—Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria. Table 1 provides some basic facts about these four countries, which vary greatly in area, per capita income, poverty, child mortality rates, and other features. Further, in terms of economic structure, Nigeria stands out for its heavy dependence on oil, which accounts for over 70 percent of government revenues and 84 percent of exports. However, oil exports are rising in both Ghana (39 percent of total exports in 2012) and Côte d’Ivoire (31 percent of total exports in 2012) as well. On the other hand, Mali’s exports are mainly agricultural (cotton in particular), with a rising proportion of manufactures (24 percent of total exports in 2012).4 The case study countries also differ with respect to their colonial past. Nigeria and Ghana were British colonies, while Mali and Côte d’Ivoire were French colonies. In terms of ethnoreligious demography,