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The Unpredictable Prediction

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The Unpredictable Prediction Among the many intangibles in this world of ours are such things as beauty, goodness, infatuation, desire, and error. Abstract ideas of this sort are beyond the reach of sense or measurement, though we are able to conceive of them in our minds. Yet with the onset of the digital age and its innovative capabilities, these abstract ideas have taken on unprecedented power and clarity, particularly in this decade, shedding their conceptual invulnerability and becoming things that can be seen, heard . or whatever the user wants them to be. All of this comes from a binary system ‘Ëß∑’Ë®—∫µâÕ߉¡à‰¥â„π‚≈°π’È¡’Õ¬ŸàÀ≈“¬ ‘Ëß π—∫·µà§«“¡ß“¡ §«“¡¥’ §«“¡ consisting entirely of zeroes and ones, which for electrical ≈ÿà¡À≈ß §«“¡Õ¬“° ·≈–§«“¡À≈ߺ‘¥ ≈â«π‡ªìππ“¡∏√√¡∑’Ë®—∫µâÕß·≈–§“¥ and electronic appliances simply means current "on" or ‡¥“‰¡à‰¥â ¡’Õ‘∑∏‘æ≈§Ÿà°—∫¡πÿ…¬å¡“π“π· ππ“π ‡¡◊ËÕ‡æ‘Ë¡ ‘Ëߪ√–¥‘…∞å °“√§âπ} "off". The digital realm has ushered in a new age for æ∫„À¡à¢Õß¡πÿ…¬å∑’ˇ√’¬°«à“¥‘®‘∑—≈‡¢â“‰ª¥â«¬ π“¡∏√√¡π’È¡’Õ‘∑∏‘æ≈¡“°¡“¬ humanity, an age of unlimited opportunity and endless explorations of the imagination. Humans are never satisfied, °—∫¡πÿ…¬å„π∑»«√√…π’ÈÕ¬à“ß¡À“»“≈ ∑—ÈßÊ ∑’ˇªìππ“¡∏√√¡ ·µà ‘Ëß∑’ˇÀÁπÕÕ° of course. As present horizons are constantly being pushed ¡“ “¡“√∂‡ªìπ‰¥â„πÀ≈“¬·∫∫√Ÿª∏√√¡ ∑’Ë ”§—≠§◊Õ§«“¡ “¡“√∂„π°“√·ª√ back by man’s creative urges and unexpected possibilities ‡ª≈’ˬπ‰¥âµ“¡§«“¡µâÕß°“√ ·≈–§«“¡æ÷ßæÕ„®¢ÕߺŸâ∑’ËÕ¬“°‡ÀÁπ¡—π appear as if out of nowhere, we can only discuss a tiny fraction of what is floating on the surface of today’s ¥â«¬√–∫∫µ—«‡≈¢§ß∑’Ëßà“¬Ê ‡æ’¬ßµ—«‡≈¢ ÕßÀ≈—° 0 ·≈– 1 ∫π‡≈¢∞“π digital deluge. 2 ”À√—∫‡§√◊ËÕß„™â‰øøÑ“ À¡“¬∂÷ߧ” —Ë߇撬߷§à çªî¥é ·≈– 燪î¥é ”À√—∫ Digital technology has changed the whole scene both °√–· ‰øøÑ“µ“¡À≈—°∑’˵—È߉«â ¥‘®‘∑—≈æ“¡πÿ…¬å‰ª Ÿà‡√◊ËÕß√“«„À¡àÊ ‰¥â‰¡à√Ÿâ®∫ the world and its inhabitants. Almost everything imaginable ‡ªî¥„À⮑πµπ“°“√¡πÿ…¬å°«â“ߢ÷Èπ ·µà§«“¡∑’ˇ√“‰¡à§àÕ¬®–æÕ„®Õ–‰√ßà“¬Ê has been stored as digital information, in a format that is easy to pass on to others. No wonder, then, that intangi- ¡πÿ…¬å„™â§«“¡§‘¥ √â“ß √√§å ¢¬“¬¢Õ∫‡¢µ·≈–¢âÕ®”°—¥¢Õߥ‘®‘∑—≈ √â“ß ‘Ëß bles have acquired a new magic and influence over people. „À¡àÊ „À⇰‘¥¢÷Èπ‡Àπ◊Õ§«“¡§“¥À¡“¬‡¥‘¡Ê ‡√◊ËÕß√“«¢Õߥ‘®‘∑—≈∑’ˉ¥â¬°µ—« Without this system, we would probably be swamped by Õ¬à“ß¡“∫“ß à«ππ’È ∂◊Õ‰¥â«à“‡ªìπ°“√ ”√«®‡æ’¬ß‡ ’Ȭ«‡≈Á°Ê ‡ ’Ȭ«Àπ÷Ë߇∑à“π—Èπ analog versions of all our documents and data. The charm of digital technology is in the ease with which it can serve ¥‘®‘∑—≈∑”„Àâ∑ÿ°Õ¬à“߇ª≈’Ëà¬π‰ª ∑—Èß‚≈°·≈–ºŸâÕ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬ √√æ ‘Ëß∫π‚≈° modern needs, allowing for pictures, sound, or data to be ·∑∫®–∑—ÈßÀ¡¥ ∂Ÿ°‡°Á∫‰«â‡ªìπ¢âÕ¡Ÿ≈„π√Ÿª¢Õߥ‘®‘∑—≈À¡¥ ∑”„Àâ∂Ÿ° àßµàÕ·≈– immediately transmitted, modified, extended, erased, or ∂à“¬∑Õ¥∂÷ß°—π‰¥âßà“¬ ‰¡àπà“·ª≈°„®π—°«à“‡Àµÿ„¥ ‘Ëß∑’Ë¡Õ߇ÀÁπ‰¡à‰¥âπ’È ®–¬—ß stored without any loss of quality over time or distance. §ß‡ªìπ ‘Ëß∑’Ë¡’æ≈—ß ·≈–¡’Õ‘∑∏‘æ≈µàÕ¡πÿ…¬å„πªí®®ÿ∫—π ·≈–µàÕÊ ‰ªÕ’°π“π Designers in almost all fields recognize by now how useful digital technology can be in their work, be it con- ‡æ√“–À“°«—ππ’ȇ√“‰¡à¡’√–∫∫π’È¡“„™â ‡Õ° “√·≈–¢âÕ¡Ÿ≈®”π«π¡À“»“≈§ß®– ceptualizing, designing, or even producing a finished ∑à«¡∑—∫‡√“ ¥â«¬§ÿ≥ ¡∫—µ‘¢Õߥ‘®‘∑—≈ ∑ÿ°§«“¡µâÕß°“√¢Õß§π ¡—¬„À¡à ∂Ÿ° product. Some say that humans will no longer have to design πÕßµÕ∫‰¥â¥—Ëß„® °“√ àßµàÕ ¥—¥·ª≈ß ‡æ‘Ë¡‡µ‘¡ ≈∫ÕÕ° ·ª√‡ª≈’ˬπ°“√ anything anymore; digital gadgets will do it all for us. It is impossible to predict the outcome of present trends in the · ¥ßº≈¢Õß¿“æ ‡ ’¬ß ·≈–¢âÕ¡Ÿ≈µà“ßÊ “¡“√∂∑”‰¥â‰¡à‡ ’¬§ÿ≥¿“懥‘¡ digital universe, even though it might look as simple to start √«¡‰ª∂÷ߧ«“¡√«¥‡√Á« ‡°Á∫√—°…“‰¥â¬“«π“π ‚¥¬‰¡à Ÿ≠‡ ’¬§ÿ≥ ¡∫—µ‘‡¥‘¡ with as zero and one. But the results show every sign of π—°ÕÕ°·∫∫·∑∫∑ÿ°·¢πß„πªí®®ÿ∫—π µà“ß°Á∑√“∫°—π¥’«à“ ¥‘®‘∑—≈¡’ being infinite. Õ‘∑∏‘æ≈·∑∫∑ÿ° à«π¢Õß°“√∑”ß“π ∑—Èߧ«“¡§‘¥ °“√º≈‘µµâπ·∫∫ ·≈–‡ªìπ What we have today is a technological revolution com- parable in importance to the print revolution sparked by º≈ß“π¢—Èπ ÿ¥∑⓬ ‰¡à™â“‡√“Õ“®‰¡àµâÕß≈ß¡◊ÕÕÕ°·∫∫°—π·≈â« ¥‘®‘∑—≈Õ“® Gutenberg in the 15th century and the industrial revolution æ—≤π“®π∑”Àπâ“∑’Ë·∑ππ—°ÕÕ°·∫∫‰¥â °“√§“¥°“√≥åÕ𓧵¢Õߥ‘®‘∑—≈π—Èπ of 18th-century Europe. Our contemporary digital revolu- §ß∑”‰¥â¬“° ∂÷ß·¡â«à“®–‡ªìπ·§àµ—«‡≈¢ Õßµ—«Õ¬à“ß 0 À√◊Õ 1 ‡æ’¬ß‡∑à“π—Èπ tion, like those previous two, is changing the way we view the world and live our lives. It is also reorienting the entire ·µàº≈≈—æ∑å∑’ˉ¥â‡æ’¬ß∑’ˇÀÁπ®“°∑ÿ°«—ππ’È ¡’‰¥â‰¡à®”°—¥ flow of human society in a single, new direction. What „π‚≈°·Ààß¢à“« “√¢âÕ¡Ÿ≈ (Information Technology) ∑ÿ°«—ππ’È ∂◊Õ‰¥â powers this latest revolution adds to human capabilities is «à“‡ªìπÀπ÷Ëß„π°“√ªØ‘√Ÿª§√—Èß ”§—≠∑“߇∑§‚π‚≈¬’ µàÕ®“°°“√§âπæ∫‡∑§π‘§ yet unknown, nor can anyone accurately predict what effect °“√æ‘¡æå‚¥¬ Gutenberg °“√ªØ‘«—µ‘Õÿµ “À°√√¡ (Industrial Revolution) it will have on the future of mankind. No one living through those former times of turmoil could have said how the printing ‡æ√“–‰¥â‡ª≈’ˬπ¡ÿ¡¡ÕߢÕß‚≈° ·≈–°“√¥”√ß™’«‘µ·∫∫„À¡àÊ ¢Õß¡πÿ…¬å press or the steam engine would change the human condi- √«¡∑—Èß àߺ≈„Àâ§π∑—Èß‚≈° ¡’™‘’«‘µ‰ª„π∑‘»∑“߇¥’¬«°—π ·µà ‘ËßÀπ÷Ëß∑’ËÕ¬Ÿà‡Àπ◊Õ tion; our ignorance of what is to come is as great now as it ∑—Èß “¡¢Õß°“√ªØ‘√Ÿªπ—Èπ §◊Õ æ≈—ß·Ààß°“√§«∫§ÿ¡¢Õß¡πÿ…¬å ´÷Ëߧ“¥‡¥“ was then. After all, we are still human beings that walk on the ‰¡à‰¥â«à“ «—πæ√ÿàßπ’È ¡πÿ…¬å‡√“®–‡ª≈’Ë¬π‰ª‡ªìπ‡™àπ„¥ ‡æ√“–°“√ªØ‘√Ÿªµà“ßÊ ∑’Ë ground . and stumble in the dark. [] ‡°‘¥¢÷Èπ¡“π’È ≈â«π‡°‘¥®“°·√ߺ≈—°¥—π ¢Õß ‘Ëß∑’˧“¥‡¥“‰¡à‰¥âæ◊Èπ∞“π∏√√¡¥“Ê Zero to one: an art4d special report: Õ¬à“ß √—° ‚≈¿ ‚°√∏ À≈ß ∑’ˇ°‘¥æ√âÕ¡Ê °—∫¡πÿ…¬å‡¥‘π¥‘πÕ¬à“߇√“Ê ¡“π“π · ππ“ππ—Ëπ‡Õß. [ ] The Unpredictable Prediction 021.p65 57 01/6/05, 12:53 21 ACM SIGGRAPH in the U.S.A.. In the afternoon of the same day, a seminar on the same ç°‘®°√√¡∑’ˇ√“®—¥ ‡ªìπ°‘®°√√¡‡≈Á°Ê ´÷Ëß„π‡∫◊ÈÕßµâπ Õ¬“°®–„Àâª√–‚¬™πå·°à topic was held for interested parties. For school and college students, the Association \What do you do when you get °≈ÿà¡ ∂“∫—π°“√»÷°…“°àÕπ §π∑’ˉ¥âª√–‚¬™πå§◊Õ°≈ÿࡇ¥Á°Ê π—°»÷°…“ ´÷Ëß set up 'Animation Screening No. 1', in which international work in animation and bored? Tuang Dheandhanoo offers µâÕß°“√·√ß∫—π¥“≈„® ¬‘Ë߇¢“‰¥â¥Ÿ¡“°‡ÀÁπ¡“° °Á¡’‚Õ°“ ∑’Ë®–∑”ß“π¥’Ê ‰¥â computer graphics was presented, along with advice from lecturers. Once again, the purpose was to stimulate study and effort by would-be developers aiming to become ideas from behind the ordinary µàÕ‰ª §‘¥«à“ªï 2548 πà“®–¡’°‘®°√√¡∑’Ë∑“ß ¡“§¡®—¥¢÷ÈπÕ’° 3-4 §√—Èß ‚¥¬π” first-calibre professionals in this field. Furthermore, the Association played a major µ—«Õ¬à“ߺ≈ß“π∑’Ë¡’§ÿ≥¿“æ ‚¥¬‡©æ“–®“°µà“ߪ√–‡∑» À√◊Õ‡™◊ÈÕ‡™‘≠«‘∑¬“°√ role in inviting a judging committee and respected speakers to participate in a screen of game design, like running ¡“„À⧫“¡√Ÿâ §◊Õ‡ªÑ“À¡“¬‡∫◊ÈÕßµâπ¢Õ߇√“ „π¢≥–‡¥’¬«°—π°Á®–®—¥°‘®°√√¡∑’Ë seminar called 'Thailand Animation and Multimedia 2005'. around the city based on written ®–‡Õ◊ÈÕª√–‚¬™πå·°à°≈ÿà¡ ¡“™‘° ∑’ˇªìπºŸâª√–°Õ∫«‘™“™’槫∫§Ÿà‰ª¥â«¬‡™àπ°—πé Araya Kaokrachang is President and a founding member of Bangkok ACM SIGGRAPH, During the past year or more, as well as Executive Director of Thomas Idea Co., Ltd.. Speaking of the flurry of instructions . (not) just for fun. §ÿ≥Õ“√¬“¬—߉¥â‡≈à“∂÷ß®ÿ¥ª√– ߧå√–¬–¬“«¢Õß ¡“§¡œ ∑’ˉ¥âµ—È߉«âµàÕ‰ª«à“ many observers might have activities undertaken by this dynamic Association in the past year or so, she says, çBangkok ACM SIGGRAPH πà“®–‡ªìπ ¡“§¡œ ”À√—∫ºŸâª√–°Õ∫«‘™“™’æ noticed a heightened sense of "The activities we have organized are small scale. To start out, we would like to ∑’ˇ°’ˬ«¢âÕß„π¥â“π Digital Content ´÷Ë߇ªì𧫓¡µ—Èß„®·µà‡√‘Ë¡·√° ”À√—∫ excitement in the Thai digital provide assistance to educational institutions. Children and students need motivation, world, after a long period of and are the ones likeliest to benefit. The more they see, the better their opportunity to «ß°“√«‘™“™’æ∑’ˇ√‘Ë¡‡µ‘∫‚µ¢÷Èπ∑ÿ°«—𠧫√®–¡’Àπ૬ߓπ§Õ¬¥Ÿ·≈ ·≈–„π incubation, and a broader reach produce good work in future. I think that in 2005 the Association will organize three Õ𓧵¢â“ßÀπâ“ ¡“§¡œ ®–§àÕ¬Ê ‡ª≈’Ë¬π‰ª‡ªìπ ¡“§¡«‘™“™’æ ∑’˙૬º≈—° than ever before. We now have or four activities. Our primary goal will be to exhibit high-quality work, especially ¥—π„π‡√◊ËÕß°“√∑”ß“π °“√»÷°…“ ·≈–∑ÿ°Ê ‡√◊ËÕß∑’ˇ°’ˬ«°—∫ Digital Content a whole industry devoted to from overseas, and invite some lecturers to impart their knowledge. We will also be digital content, a large quantity À“°æŸ¥∂÷ßß“π Digital Content ∑’Ë¡“·√ß∑’Ë ÿ¥„ππ“∑’π’È §ßÀπ’‰¡àæâπß“π organizing activities of benefit to members, who are engaged in their professions at of it.
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