Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin

Volume 4: November 2008

Claimants in Gloucestershire = 7,581 people 7000 1.2 6000

1 5000

0.8 4000

0.6 3000 100 people

0.4=

0.2 1000

0 0 942 more people claiming Unemployment1 Benefit in November 2008

Produced by:

The Research Team (Economics) Chief Executive’s Support Unit Gloucestershire County Council December 2008 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 SUMMARY

The claimant rate in Gloucestershire was 2.2% in November 2008. This was an increase of 0.3% on the October 2008 figure. This is the eighth consecutive monthly increase. Both the UK and the South West rates increased by 0.2% between October 2008 and November 2008. Gloucestershire’s rate remains slightly above the South West average of 1.9%, but over half a per cent lower than the UK average of 2.8%.

CLA IMA NT RA TE A CROSS GLOUCESTERSHIRE, THE SOUTH WEST A ND THE UK OVER THE PA ST YEA R Claimant Rate (%)

3.0

2.5

2.0 United Kingdom

South West 1.5 Gloucestershire 1.0

0.5

0.0 No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED

The claimant count in Gloucestershire in November 2008 rose by 942 people. The amount of people claiming in November 2008 was therefore 15% higher than the number in October 2008. The increase was 14% across the South West, and 9% for the UK.

GLOUCESTERSHIRE CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate change 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

% change on previous month % change on previous year

The claimant count in Gloucestershire has been increasing for eight consecutive months, and stood 55% higher in November 2008 than at the same point the previous year.

Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Gloucestershire, South West and UK claimants: November 2008 Consecutive Claimant Count in % Change on Average % increase over Area months November 2008 October 2008 the last six months increasing Cheltenham 1,843 11.9 4.9 8 Cotswolds 608 19.4 9.2 5 Forest 1,147 15.0 6.7 6 Gloucester 2,071 10.2 4.1 2 Stroud 1,072 18.1 7.8 2 Tewkesbury 840 20.2 5.9 1 Gloucestershire 7,581 14.2 5.7 8 South West 59,490 14.0 6.4 7 UK 1,056,145 8.8 4.0 7

• In Cheltenham Borough the claimant count has increased each month since April 2008. Cheltenham has the highest number of consecutive monthly claimant count increases of all the districts of Gloucestershire. Cheltenham also has the second highest claimant rate in Gloucestershire at 2.6%

• In Cotswold District the claimant count in November 2008 was the highest for two years and has been increasing since July 2008. In addition, the claimant count in November 2008 was over 71% higher than it was in November 2007. Despite this increase, the Cotswolds have the lowest claimant rate in Gloucestershire at 1.2%

• In the Forest of Dean District the claimant count in November 2008 was the highest since April 2007 and has been increasing since May 2008. Pillowell ward continued to be above the district average for claimants for the second consecutive month. The Forest of Dean has the third highest claimant rate in Gloucestershire at 2.4%

• In Gloucester City the claimant count increased by 192 people between October 2008 and November 2008. The largest increases were found in Moreland, Barton and Tredworth, and Barnwood wards.

• In Stroud District the claimant count increased by 42 people between October 2008 and November 2008. This was the second consecutive monthly increase in claimant count.

• Tewkesbury Borough had the overall highest percentage increase in claimants of any district between October 2008 and November 2008. The increase in claimants reversed the trend between September 2008 and October 2008, where claimants fell. Despite the increase, Tewkesbury still has the second lowest claimant rate in Gloucestershire at 1.8%

The 16-18 NEET population has decreased from 4.6% at the end of October 2008 to 3.9% at the end of November 2008.

Some 35% of the joiners had managed to return to EET (education, employment and training) at the time of the analysis showing the effectiveness of early intervention.

Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Contents

Part 1: UK, South West and Gloucestershire Indicators...... 1

Claimant Rate...... 1 Claimant Count...... 1 Inflation...... 2

Part 2: Gloucestershire and Local Authority District analysis ...... 3

Claimant Rate and Claimant Count...... 3

Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis ...... 5

Cheltenham Borough ...... 5 Cheltenham Borough – Wards ...... 6 Cotswold District...... 8 Cotswold District – Wards ...... 9 Forest of Dean District...... 11 Forest of Dean District – Wards ...... 12 Gloucester City...... 14 Gloucester City – Wards...... 15 Stroud District...... 17 Stroud District – Wards...... 18 Tewkesbury Borough ...... 20 Tewkesbury Borough - Wards...... 21

Part 4: Young People not in education, employment or training (NEET) in Gloucestershire ...... 23

Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Part 1: UK, South West and Gloucestershire Indicators

Claimant Rate1

Figure 1 CLAIMANT RATE ACROSS GLOUCESTERSHIRE, THE SOUTH WEST AND THE UK OVER THE PAST YEAR Claimant Rate (%)

3.0

2.5

2.0 United Kingdom

South West 1.5 Gloucestershire 1.0

0.5

0.0 No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED

Figure 1 shows the claimant rate for Gloucestershire at 2.2% in November 2008. The rate has remained slightly higher than the South West average over the past year, but persistently lower by approximately 0.5% against the UK average during the same period. November 2008 represented a 0.3% increase on October 2008.

Claimant Count2

Table 1: Analysis of UK, South West and Gloucestershire Claimant Counts

Average % increase Claimant Count in % change on Consecutive months Area over the last six November 2008 October3 2008 increasing months4

UK 1,056,145 8.8 4.0 7 South West 59,490 14.0 6.4 7 Gloucestershire 7,581 14.2 5.7 8

Table 1 shows that in November 2008, the number of claimants in Gloucestershire was 14.2% higher than the number in October 2008. This is comparable with the South West increase, but nearly twice that of the UK increase.

The average growth in claimants in Gloucestershire for the six months to October 2008 was 5.7%. Although 1.7% higher than that of the UK average, Gloucestershire has been overtaken by the average for the South West region, where growth in claimants over this period was 0.7% higher.

1 The Claimant Rate is the amount of claimants as a percentage of the working age population for the claimant group.

2 JSA Claimant Count records the number of people claiming Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA) and National Insurance credits at Job Centre Plus Offices. This is not an official measure of unemployment, but is the only indicative statistical measure available for areas smaller than Local Authorities.

3 The difference between total claimants in November 2008 and October 2008 expressed as a percentage increase or decrease.

4 The average monthly rate at which the Claimant Count has been growing for the six months to November 2008 1 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Inflation

Figure 2

INFLA TION OVER THE LA ST YEA R SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Annual Increase (%) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

CPI: consumer Price Index (excluding housing costs) RPI Retail Price Index (includes mortgage costs) RPIX: Retail Price Index (excludes mortgage costs) Government Target

Figure 2 shows the national level of inflation since November 2007. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI), which the Government use for their target measure, was 4.1 per cent in November 2008, down from 4.5 per cent in October 2008. The Retail Prices Index (RPI) was 3.0 per cent in November 2008, down from 4.2 per cent in September 2008. The Retail Prices Index excluding mortgage interest payments (RPIX) was 3.9 per cent in November 2008, down from 5.7 per cent in October 2008.

2 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Part 2: Gloucestershire and Local Authority District analysis

Claimant Rate and Claimant Count

Figure 3 CLAIMANT RATE (%) ACROSS GLOUCESTERSHIRE: NOVEMBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%) 3.0

2.5 Gloucestershire – 2.2% 2.0

1.5

1.0 0.5 2.6 1.2 2.4 2.9 1.6 1.8 0.0

m ld ry o ster u sw sb enha t ce Stroud e t u k Co t of Dean w s Glo Chel Te Fore

Figure 3 shows the claimant rate for November 2008 in Gloucestershire. Every district in Gloucestershire had in increase in the claimant rate between October 2008 and November 2008.

Figure 4 TOTAL CLAIMANTS OVER THE PAST YEAR ACROSS GLOUCESTERSHIRE DISTRICTS SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED

Number of claimants

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000 Cotswold Tewkesbury 4,000 Stroud For e s t of De a n 3,000

2,000 Cheltenham

1,000 Glouc e s t e r 0 No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

Figure 4 shows the overall claimant count for Gloucestershire over the past year. It demonstrates the gap that is widening across all the districts as the UK economy moves towards recession. The widest gaps are not surprisingly reflected in the urban areas of Cheltenham and Gloucester.

3 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008

Table 2: Analysis of Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts Consecutive Claimant Count in % Change on Average % increase over Area months November 2008 October 2008 the last six months increasing Cheltenham 1,843 11.9 4.9 8 Cotswolds 608 19.4 9.2 5 Forest 1,147 15.0 6.7 6 Gloucester 2,071 10.2 4.1 2 Stroud 1,072 18.1 7.8 2 Tewkesbury 840 20.2 5.9 1 Gloucestershire 7,581 14.2 5.7 8 South West 59,490 14.0 6.4 7 UK 1,056,145 8.8 4.0 7

Table 2 shows the change in the claimant count in November 2008 compared to October 2008. The November 2008 increase was experienced across all six districts.

4 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis

Cheltenham Borough

Claimant Rate and Claimant Count

Figure 5

SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED CHELTENHAM CLAIMANT RATE OVER THE LAST YEAR Claimant Rate (%)

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

Figure 5 shows the claimant rate in Cheltenham was at its highest rate for over a year at 2.6%. The rate has been climbing for eight consecutive months.

Figure 6 CHELTENHAM CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED

Claimant Count % change 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

% change on previous month % change on previous year

Figure 8 shows the claimant count increasing each month since April 2008. In addition, claimant counts have increased every month on the same month the previous year since July 2008.

5 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Cheltenham Borough – Wards

Figure 7 CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS CHELTENHAM WARDS - NOVEMBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%) 8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0 l k il n s 's 's ey gs l k ey ay n ar H ege r er's pton Park P l akl W tbury herl Village Saint et on den Pittville Col Ma O am at on Ki t ll St Pau ringban k h Pres H t Lansdow A St St P ck p BattledownWar Sp e U harl Hesters L Charl C Swindon

Benhall and The Reddings

Figure 7 shows the claimant rates for Cheltenham Borough wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the Borough, with eight wards above the average.

Table 3: Analysis of Claimant Count at Cheltenham Ward level – November 2008 District Ward Rate Rank5 bottom 10% of county first quartile of county Cheltenham Leckhampton 1.1 27 second quartile of county Cheltenham Park 1.1 27 third quartile of county fourth quartile of county Cheltenham Prestbury 1.2 41 highest 10% of county Cheltenham Up Hatherley 1.2 41 Cheltenham Benhall and The Reddings 1.3 49 t Cheltenham Charlton Kings 1.3 49 Cheltenham Charlton Park 1.5 68 Cheltenham Battledown 1.6 73 Cheltenham Warden Hill 1.7 81 Cheltenham Pittville 1.9 87 Cheltenham College 2 91 Cheltenham Swindon Village 2.6 110 Cheltenham Lansdown 3 118 Cheltenham All Saints 3.4 123 Cheltenham St Paul's 3.6 126 Cheltenham Springbank 4.1 129 Cheltenham St Mark's 4.3 133 Cheltenham St Peter's 4.5 134 Cheltenham Oakley 5.2 137 Cheltenham Hesters Way 5.9 141

Table 3 shows overall claimant counts for Cheltenham Borough wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire.

5 1=”best” and 142 = “worst”. 6 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008

Figure 8

NUMBER OF CLAIMANTS ACROSS CHELTENHAM WARDS - NOVEMBER 2007/2008

ill H en rd Wa y e rl athe H p U e ag ll Vi n o s wind r' S te e P t S s

St Paul'

s

St Mark' k n

pringba S y

Prestbur e

ittvill P

k ar P

y le Oak

n to mp a h ck Le own d Lans

ay s W

Hester ege Coll

rk Pa n

s Charlto g in K n to rl a ll h C Benha

wn

attl edo B ts in a l S 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Al Nov Nov 2007 2008

Figure 8 compares the number of claimants in each of the Cheltenham wards at two points in time – November 2007, and November 2008. This highlights the areas that have been most affected by the increase in claimants between the two dates. 7 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis

Cotswold District

Claimant Rate and Claimant Count

Figure 10

SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED COTSWOLDS CLA IMA NT RA TE OVER THE LA ST YEA R Claimant Rate (%) 3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

Figure 10 shows the claimant rate in the Cotswolds was at its highest rate for over a year at 1.2%. The rate has been increasing since June 2008.

Figure 11 COTSWOLDS CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Count % change 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

% change on previous month % change on previous year

Figure 11 shows the claimant count increasing since July 2008. In addition, claimant counts are higher compared to the same month the previous year since July 2008. For example, in November 2008, the claimant count was over 70% higher than it was in October 2007.

8 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Cotswold District – Wards

Figure 12

CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS COTSWOLDS WARDS - NOVEMBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%)

8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

t y ll n le in w y k ley e l o on sh ge r ch r ee a m ford ter t r d oor tons wa yw ning Park Co -V r r St bu ea m g e e hlade - E Head - Wa ockley t rs it nd s - seri l thl olds Ash h Av ec en Fai on s B Te r b ater ney c Hamp o ive Sa p me a Chedworth Fo N R hurn ValRissin d-L W -the Three Riversum C r mpd ha n r Am T Be o r Waterm G sf o Ca - e ster Chestertont on e Cirencesters Pa mp t encester Beeches r Moreton-in-Mair ce Ke u C ter Stratton-W Bo s Cirenc Ciren ce n e ir C

Figure 12 shows the claimant rate for the wards in Cotswold District. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District. Ten wards are above the Cotswold District average.

Table 4 shows the overall counts for Cotswold District wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire.

Table 4: Analysis of Claimant Count at Cotswolds Ward level – November 2008 District Ward Rate Rank6 bottom 10% of county first quartile of county Cotswolds Three Rivers 0.4 1 second quartile of county Cotswolds Grumbolds Ash 0.5 third quartile of county 2 fourth quartile of county Cotswolds Riversmeet 0.5 2 highest 10% of county Cotswolds Churn Valley 0.6 4 Cotswolds Rissingtons 0.8 11 Cotswolds Cirencester Stratton-Whiteway 0.9 15 Cotswolds Sandywell 0.9 15 Cotswolds Avening 1.0 20 Cotswolds Kempsford-Lechlade 1.0 20 Cotswolds Water Park 1.0 20 Cotswolds Ampney-Coln 1.1 27 Cotswolds Campden-Vale 1.1 27 Cotswolds Ermin 1.1 27 Cotswolds Fairford 1.1 27 Cotswolds Thames Head 1.1 27 Cotswolds Beacon-Stow 1.2 41 Cotswolds Bourton-on-the-Water 1.2 41 Cotswolds Hampton 1.2 41 Cotswolds Chedworth 1.3 49 Cotswolds Moreton-in-Marsh 1.3 49 Cotswolds Cirencester Beeches 1.4 62 Cotswolds Fosseridge 1.5 68 Cotswolds Blockley 1.6 73 Cotswolds Tetbury 1.6 73 Cotswolds Northleach 1.7 81 Cotswolds Cirencester Chesterton 1.9 87 Cotswolds Cirencester Park 2.0 91 Cotswolds Cirencester Watermoor 3.3 122

6 1=’best’ and 142 = ‘worst”’ 9 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008

Figure 13

NUMBER OF CLAIMANTS ACROSS COTSWOLDS WARDS - NOVEMBER 2007/2008

k

Wa te r Pae rrs

ead Three RivH y ur b Thameset T ell yw nd a S et

rsme ns Rive to ng si s ch Ri lea h rt No h rs a n-M e n-i d reto chl a o e n M pto m Ha sh Kempsford-L e g mbolds A u Gr d Fosseridr rfo Fai n Ermi

oor

r Waterm e wa st e rk nc Pa ire C ter es c n n o rt Ci re ste s e Che ch ter e Ci rencester Stratton-White Be ey ces r l n te al es V c rn Ci re th hu iren C C

Chedwor le n-Va e pd m te Ca a -W y -the n Blockle n-o o w to -S n Bourt g eaco in B Aven n ol C 0 1020304050607080 ey- n Amp Nov Nov 2007 2008

Figure 13 compares the number of claimants in each of the Cotswolds wards at two points in time – November 2007, and November 2008. This highlights the areas that have been most affected by the increase in claimants between the two dates.

10 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis

Forest of Dean District

Claimant Rate and Claimant Count

Figure 14

FOREST OF DEAN CLAIMANT RATE OVER THE LAST YEAR SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED

Claimant Rate (%) 3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

Figure 14 shows the claimant rate in the Forest of Dean was at the highest point for over a year at 2.4%.

Figure 15 FOREST OF DEA N CLA IMA NTS - MONTH ON MONTH A ND YEA R ON YEA R CHA NGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Count % change 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

% change on previous month % change on previous year

Figure 15 shows that monthly claimant counts have been increasing since May 2008, and the claimant count compared to the same month the previous year has been higher since June 2008. The number of claimants in November 2008 exceeded that of November 2007 by over 60%

11 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Forest of Dean District – Wards

Figure 16

CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS FOREST OF DEAN WARDS - NOVEMBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%) 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 l n k y st n t m on c th ge m ral ope t Ea d ok ast h r sto or ea i o Eas E East e mo tbur h Awre cknor d p lowel d y s t N i r Brea rd artpury denha ol a r y Pil ey H o ua Berry Hill o Ti Tibb West ... nt Central efor Redmarleyd Long Wo nd D ish B e erf ydn n ydne d R nd Drybr L nd a ent N L ew an d Rus Col a and We ngl an ow m w N n a Coleford Cent Cind Cinderford West ld e an sdon a ie err N nd E i a ede ldea lsf sb h dbrook l e Churcham and HuntleyBla e Newnhall and Newland and St Briavels Ly Litt ew , Aylburton and H ha Mitch Brome stchurc gton i n Oxen i Chr Alv

Figure 16 shows the claimant rate for Forest of Dean District wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District, and ten wards are above this average

Table 5: Analysis of Claimant Count at Forest of Dean Ward level – November 2008 District Ward Rate Rank7 bottom 10% of county first quartile of county Forest Hartpury 0.6 4 second quartile of county Forest Churcham and Huntley 0.7 8 third quartile of county fourth quartile of county Forest Tidenham 0.8 11 highest 10% of county Forest Redmarley 0.9 15 Forest Blaisdon and Longhope 1.1 27 Forest Tibberton 1.1 27 Forest Hewelsfield and Woolaston 1.3 49 Forest Bromesberrow and Dymock 1.4 62 Forest Newnham and Westbury 1.4 62 Forest Oxenhall and Newent North East 1.5 68 Forest Alvington, Aylburton and West Lydney 1.8 83 Forest Lydney North 1.8 83 Forest Newland and St Briavels 1.8 83 Forest Awre 2.1 96 Forest Christchurch and English Bicknor 2.2 99 Forest Newent Central 2.2 99 Forest Lydbrook and Ruardean 2.3 101 Forest Berry Hill 2.4 104 Forest Littledean and Ruspidge 2.5 108 Forest Bream 2.6 110 Forest Mitcheldean and Drybrook 2.7 113 Forest Pillowell 2.7 113 Forest Coleford Central 3.2 120 Forest Coleford East 3.4 123 Forest Cinderford East 3.6 126 Forest Lydney East 4.0 128 Forest Cinderford West 5.2 137

Table 5 shows overall claimant counts for Forest of Dean District wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire.

7 1 = ‘best” and 142 = ‘worst’. 12 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008

Figure 17

NUMBER OF CLAIMANTS ACROSS FOREST WARDS - NOVEMBER 2007/2008

m nha e id T n to ber b Ti y le

dmar Re el l

Pillow

Ea th ur tb

Newent We Nor s d d vel an am h t Bria ral n S w d ent OxenhallNe an an nd la w Newent C ook Ne ybr th Dr r

st Lydney No ey Ea dn Mitcheldean and Ly n ea ard Ru dg and spi u rook to ydb and R s L n la ry oo u

Li ttledea and HartpW st el d fi s d Ea for e Hewel ol C ral

t ford Cent e es ol W C d for t er s nd d Ea Ci r rfo le Ci nde t Hun d an m n a k rch Bi c u h ck Ch o nglis m E m d Dy n d rea a B h an rc w u rro op esbe h l Christch ong l L Hi Brom d ry an r Be e don s Awr ai Bl n to ng 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 vi Al Nov Nov 2007 2008

Figure 17 compares the number of claimants in each of the Forest of Dean wards at two points in time – November 2007, and November 2008. This highlights the areas that have been most affected by the increase in claimants between the two dates.

13 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis

Gloucester City

Claimant Rate and Claimant Count

Figure 18

GLOUCESTER CITY CLA IMA NT RA TE OVER THE LA ST YEA R SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED

Claimant Rate (%)

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

Figure 18 shows the claimant rate for Gloucester City was at the highest point for over a year at 2.9%.

Figure 19 GLOUCESTER CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED

Claimant Count % change 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

% change on previous month % change on previous year

Gloucester City’s claimant count was 2,071 people in November 2008. Figure 18 shows the claimant count increasing since April 2008, before falling during September 2008, and then rising again in October 2008 and November 2008.

14 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Gloucester City – Wards

Figure 20 CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS GLOUCESTER WARDS - NOVEMBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%) 8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

ey bey l b lecote A Grange Tuff dworth lmbridge e onglevens E vern Vale Barnwood Moreland Westgate Hucc L e Tr Podsmead nd

geley S n and Robinswood d o Quedgeley Fieldcourt s arton a t B Que Kingsholm and Wotton Ma

Figure 20 shows the claimant rate for Gloucester City wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the City and six of the wards are above the City average.

Table 6: Analysis of Claimant Count at Gloucester City Ward level – November 2008 District Ward Rate Rank8 bottom 10% of county first quartile of county Gloucester Hucclecote 1.2 41 second quartile of county Gloucester Abbey 1.3 third quartile of county 49 fourth quartile of county Gloucester Longlevens 1.3 49 highest 10% of county Gloucester Elmbridge 1.4 62 Gloucester Quedgeley Severn Vale 1.6 73 Gloucester Grange 2.0 91 Gloucester Tuffley 2.3 101 Gloucester Quedgeley Fieldcourt 2.6 110 Gloucester Barnwood 2.8 117 Gloucester Kingsholm and Wotton 4.2 131 Gloucester Moreland 4.2 131 Gloucester Matson and Robinswood 4.7 136 Gloucester Barton and Tredworth 5.2 137 Gloucester Podsmead 5.6 140 Gloucester Westgate 8.6 142

Table 6 shows overall claimant counts for Gloucester City wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire.

8 1= ‘best’ and 142 – ‘worst’ 15 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008

Figure 21

NUMBER OF CLAIMANTS ACROSS GLOUCESTER WARDS - NOVEMBER 2007/2008

e at g

Wes t

ley Tuff

al

ey Severn V el rt u uedg Q dco Fi el ey el d uedg Q Podsmea

d an

Morel

d o o

obi nsw R d ns an son Mat Longleve

to Wot d an m te shol ing K Huccleco

ge

Gran

ge rid b m El

rth o w red d T an od n o

Bart Barnwo

y e bb A 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Nov Nov 2007 2008

Figure 21 compares the number of claimants in each of the Gloucester wards at two points in time – November 2007, and November 2008. This highlights the areas that have been most affected by the increase in claimants between the two dates.

16 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis

Stroud District

Claimant Rate and Claimant Count

Figure 22

SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED STROUD CLAIMANT RATE OVER THE LAST YEAR Claimant Rate (%) 3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

Figure 22 shows the claimant rate for Stroud district was at 1.6% the highest it has been for over two years.

Figure 23

STROUD CLAIMA NTS - MONTH ON MONTH A ND YEA R ON YEA R CHA NGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Count % change 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

% change on previous month % change on previous year

Figure 23 shows that when compared to the same month one year previous, claimant counts have been up since July 2008, the November 2008 claimant count was 60% higher than it was during November 2007.

17 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Stroud District – Wards

Figure 24 CLA IMANT RATES A CROSS STROUD WA RDS - OCTOBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%) 8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0 l e il l y g e y s y e e ish rn rd pp ke it ton ey h d d ugh e est ster l use n lle n Val roud ru e in p e sley o ros a a o t W wic lands r r c g a Sla Bisleynswick ev S h p T rk s V i or S m T rd Du n Centra St b Chalfo U Be neh Pa Pa d d Cam East er o Kingswood o Nailsworth Ca oodch Ha Cai d ley and Ul Ov St n R The Stanleys W n an l a o il Coa Minchinham h Upton St Leonards gt n rm ti Wotton-under-Ed s a a F E Amberley and

Figure 24 shows the claimant rates in Stroud District wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District and ten of the wards are above the District average.

Table 7: Analysis of Claimant Count at Stroud District Ward level – November 2008 District Ward Rate Rank9 bottom 10% of county first quartile of county Stroud Coaley and Uley 0.6 4 second quartile of county third quartile of county Stroud Kingswood 0.8 11 fourth quartile of county Stroud Upton St Leonards 0.8 11 highest 10% of county Stroud Bisley 0.9 15 Stroud Painswick 1.0 20 Stroud Eastington and Standish 1.1 27 Stroud Rodborough 1.1 27 Stroud The Stanleys 1.1 27 Stroud Wotton-under-Edge 1.1 27 Stroud Severn 1.2 41 Stroud Vale 1.2 41 Stroud Cam East 1.3 49 Stroud Chalford 1.3 49 Stroud Nailsworth 1.3 49 Stroud Over Stroud 1.3 49 Stroud Cam West 1.4 62 Stroud Thrupp 1.4 62 Stroud Amberley and Woodchester 1.5 68 Stroud Hardwicke 1.6 73 Stroud Uplands 1.6 73 Stroud Trinity 1.8 83 Stroud Minchinhampton 1.9 87 Stroud Berkeley 2.0 91 Stroud Dursley 2.4 104 Stroud Stonehouse 2.4 104 Stroud Cainscross 2.5 108 Stroud Farmhill and Paganhill 2.7 113 Stroud Valley 3.0 118 Stroud Slade 3.4 123 Stroud Central 4.1 129 Table 7 shows overall claimant counts for Stroud District wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. 18 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008

Figure 25

NUMBER OF CLAIMANTS ACROSS STROUD WARDS - NOVEMBER 2007/2008

dg -E er nd u y n- o t Valle Wot s

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e s

Stonehoue lad S

n

Sever

gh u o

Rodbor ck

ainswi P ud

Over Stro h rt

swo Nail to p m a e k wic Minchinhd Har h n ga a P d y e sl ll an r Du

Farmhi d for al h C al tr n e C t s e

am W C st

am Ea C ss o cr s n ai C y le Bis

y e el k er 0 102030405060708090100 B

Nov Nov 2007 2008

Figure 25 compares the number of claimants in each of the Stroud wards at two points in time – November 2007, and November 2008. This highlights the areas that have been most affected by the increase in claimants between the two dates.

19 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis

Tewkesbury Borough

Claimant Rate and Claimant Count

Figure 26

SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED TEWKESBURY BOROUGH CLAIMANT RATE OVER THE LAST YEAR Claimant Rate (%)

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

Figure 26 shows the claimant rate for Tewkesbury Borough was at the highest point for the year at 1.8%.

Figure 27

TEWKESBURY CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Count % change 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

% change on previous month % change on previous year

Figure 27 shows that claimant counts have been up every month compared to the same month the previous year since June 2008. The count in November 2008 was 60% higher than it was in October 2008.

20 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Tewkesbury Borough - Wards

Figure 28 CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS TEWKESBURY WARDS - NOVEMBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%) 8.0

7.0 6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0 2.0

1.0 0.0 l n e ill g y 's h n w n rth te ge n rt r Hil H o n rl e rdiff way ark to n e o a h o gto itton P ou b w lec Ca w in w b Bridge wynin c Gr rt k M 's e s w T ge n o rd r N I om d e o N y Cleeve Hill xento o Huc v Hathe t hu r O Cleeve WestC Ba e n al Broc S w Winchcombe y Prio bu Cle o W r s D h e t bu k i Town withs w w Cleeve St Michael's e with h T hnam with Ha c Churchdown St Joh Churchdown Brookfield r ewke rth hu esbury T Hig o c k w h w ns e As T In Figure 28 shows the claimant rate for Tewkesbury Borough wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the Borough and seven of the wards are above the Borough average.

Table 8: Analysis of Claimant Count at Tewkesbury Borough Ward level – November 2008 District Ward Rate Rank bottom 10% of county first quartile of county Tewkesbury Tewkesbury Newtown 0.6 4 second quartile of county third quartile of county Tewkesbury Cleeve Hill 0.7 8 fourth quartile of county Tewkesbury Isbourne 0.7 8 highest 10% of county Tewkesbury Oxenton Hill 0.9 15 Tewkesbury Cleeve West 1.0 20 Tewkesbury Coombe Hill 1.0 20 Tewkesbury Highnam with Haw Bridge 1.0 20 Tewkesbury Twyning 1.1 27 Tewkesbury Badgeworth 1.3 49 Tewkesbury Churchdown Brookfield 1.3 49 Tewkesbury Hucclecote 1.5 68 Tewkesbury Cleeve Grange 1.6 73 Tewkesbury Innsworth with Down Hatherley 1.6 73 Tewkesbury Winchcombe 1.9 87 Tewkesbury Ashchurch with Walton Cardiff 2.0 91 Tewkesbury Churchdown St John's 2.1 96 Tewkesbury Northway 2.1 96 Tewkesbury Brockworth 2.3 101 Tewkesbury Cleeve St Michael's 2.4 104 Tewkesbury Shurdington 2.7 113 Tewkesbury Tewkesbury Town with Mitton 3.2 120 Tewkesbury Tewkesbury Prior's Park 4.5 134

Table 8 shows overall claimant counts for Tewkesbury Borough wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire.

21 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008

Figure 29

NUMBER OF CLAIMANTS ACROSS TEWKESBURY WARDS - NOVEMBER 2007/2008

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itton M

with n rk w a P To y r's io Pr wkesbur wn e bury o T wkes Te n bury Newt s to ke w Te urding h S

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North e rn u

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ley er th Ha n ow te o D c

with Huccle rth e wo g ns id In Br w Ha h ll it i w H m a hn Coombe Hig t

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down Broo h

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adgeworth B ch ur ch 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Ash Nov Nov 2007 2008

Figure 29 compares the number of claimants in each of the Tewkesbury wards at two points in time – November 2007, and November 2008. This highlights the areas that have been most affected by the increase in claimants between the two dates.

22 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 4: November 2008 Part 4: Young People not in education, employment or training (NEET) in Gloucestershire

Connexions Gloucestershire is required to report performance with the 16-18 age range against nationally defined criteria for counting the NEET group. The NEET group includes young people actively seeking education, employment or training as well as those young people who are either not yet ready or who are unable to access these opportunities because of their personal circumstances. The figures quoted below include young people in both of these categories.

Summary

As at the end of November 2008 there were 693 young people aged 16-18 not in education, employment or training in Gloucestershire. This figure translates into an adjusted (*) 16-18 NEET population of 3.9%. This has decreased from 4.6% at the end of October 2008 and this very positive performance, given the current economic climate, is the result of a period of enhanced tracking and support for young people from staff within Connexions.

Total NEET Group by District Area 30th November 2008

Cheltenham Cotswold Forest Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury Total NEET 154 53 100 193 119 74 693(*) Group % NEET of

total 16-18 5.7% 2.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.6% 3.4% 3.9%(*) cohort

Analysis of NEET joiners during November 2008 – key findings

Research into young people who joined the NEET group during November 2008 reveals the following information;

• 62% of joiners were male whereas previous research has shown a parity between the sexes • 35% of joiners live in the Gloucester area • 46% of joiners were in the 17 year old cohort range • 18% of joiners already hold a level 2 qualification – an indicator demonstrating the effect of the economic recession • 35% of the joiners had managed to return to EET (education, employment or training) at the time of the analysis showing the effectiveness of early intervention

We are now working closely with partner agencies to ensure these findings inform future actions to support young people.

If you would like to receive any further information on Gloucestershire’s NEET strategy then please contact [email protected] or telephone 01452 426900

(*) Adjustment includes a proportion of young people aged 16-18 whose outcomes are not-known to Connexions Gloucestershire

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