Information to Users

INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand comer and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9” black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. Bell & Howell Information and Learning 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 USA UMI 800-521-0600 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Reproduced with with permission permission of the of copyright the copyright owner. owner.Further reproductionFurther reproduction prohibited without prohibited permission. without permission. PETROLEUM PROFITS AND PARTICIPATORY POLITICS: EVALUATING THE EMPIRICAL VALIDITY OF THE RENTIER STATE THEORY by Eric David Hornberger submined to the Faculty of the School for International Service of American University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in International Affairs Committee Approval: Dr. Allan^t^m,'Chair TDr. Simona Sharoni Dean of the School for International Service lb ______ Date 1999 American University Washington, D.C. 20016 TlMERICftH ONIVERSmf UBRftH Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. UMI Number 1398908 ___ ® UMI UMI Microform 1398908 Copyright 2000 by Bell & Howell Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. Bell & Howell Information and Learning Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. PETROLEUM PROFITS AND PARTICIPATORY POLITICS: EVALUATING THE EMPIRICAL VALIDITY OF THE RENTIER STATE THEORY BY Eric David Homberger ABSTRACT This study traces the evolution of the Rentier State Theory, quantifies its primary components, and rigorously tests the extent to which the negative impact of economic rent upon the advancement of democracy in the Arab world can be substantiated empirically. Through a series of multivariate regressions done on the primary components of the Rentier State Theory and quantitative democratic indicators, little empirical evidence was found to support the common hypotheses espoused in rentier literature. In fact, there is every indication that many of the assumptions concerning the relationship between the sources of state revenue and national political behavior are actually contrary to empirical evidence. While groundbreaking in bringing a quantitative, more systematic dimension to a largely qualitative field of political inquiry, further research is needed to further substantiate the conclusions drawn in this study and to more fully understand the impact of regional oil wealth in shaping Arab political development. II Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT........................................................................................................................ ii LIST OF TABLES.............................................................................................................iv Chapter 1. Introduction ........................ 1 2. Theoretical Foundations .................................. 11 3. Establishing an Empirical Framework ......................................................52 4. Analyzing the Results.......................................................................... .....84 5. Conclusion .................................................................................................107 BIBLIOGRAPHY...........................................................................................................112 iii Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. LIST OF TABLES 1. INDICATORS OF THE RENTIER STATE THEORY................................................. 79 2. MODELING RENTIER INDICATORS OF NATIONAL POLITICAL BEHAVIOR IN TH E ARAB W ORLD................................................................................86 3. SPECIFYING MODELS OF RENTIER POLITICAL PATTERNS IN THE ARAB WORLD O V E R T IM E ................................................................................. 89 4. MODELING FOR RENTIER PATTERNS OF NATIONAL POLITICAL BEHAVIOR WORLDWIDE................................................................................................ 97 5. SPECIFYING MODELS FOR NATIONAL POLITICAL BEHAVIOR WORLDWIDE OVER TIME..............................................................................................99 iv Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Democracy in the Arab World Heralded as “probably the most important political trend in the late twentieth century” by one of the premiere political scientists of the late 20th century, the ‘third wave’ o f global democratic revolution that occurred between 1974 and 1990 witnessed the transition of more than thirty countries to democradc systems o f governance.1 From East Asia to Ladn America, countries that entered the 1980s ruled by autocradc regimes exited the decade more politically ‘free’ and well on the road to democracy. Yet, despite the global nature of this trend, the Middle East continues to elude substantive democratization. According to a recent cross-national, comparative study of democracy’s ‘third wave’, only in the Middle East and Africa are patterns of governance in the late 20 * century found to be more autocratic than democratic in only the Middle East and Africa.2 Furthermore, this study found that while in Africa the prospects for democracy are uncertain, “the prognosis for democratization in the Middle East is even more tenuous.” 3 With the vast majority of Arab states entering the new millennium still controlled by either tribal monarchies or military regimes, these findings are not at all shocking and have come to characterize the 1 Samuel P. Huntington, “How Countries Democratize,” Political Science Ouarterlyvol. 106, p-579. See also an expanded discussion of the ‘Third Wave” in Huntington’s The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Centur/OldahomaCityt University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), p. 579. 2 Keith Jaggers and Ted Robert Gurr, “Tracking Democracy’s Third Wave with the Polity III Data,” Toumal o f Peace Research vol. 32, no. 4 (1995), p. 476. 1 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 2 politics of the Arab world in the minds of global public opinion, policy experts and scholars alike. Scholars o f the Middle East have also noticed this noteworthy political anomaly. In and investigation of the prospects for democratic change in the aftermath of the Gulf War, Michael Hudson notes that “. authoritarianism has been the dominant feature of modern Axab politics.”4 Similarly, according to William Quandt, the region categorically suffers from what he calls a “political deficit” and argues that: The biggest challenge facing the Middle East in the years to come is the development o f better systems o f governance. This means governments that are accountable, in some acceptable manner, to their people. 5 While Quandt notes that while regional economic challenges remain significant, he finds that this political challenge is “at the core of the economic deficit.”6 Considering the enormous resources, relatively high rates of modernization, and integrated nature of trade relations with the rest of the world, one would assume that this region would have a heightened sensitivity to global trends, not an aversion to them. W hat is the cause of such retarded political development? These and many more observations about the seemingly anachronistic politics of the Axab world have fueled an increasing number of more recent investigations, making it one of the most studied topics in regional scholarship. Survey of Broader Scholarly Debate Within the discussion o f democracy and the Middle East, several areas of analytical inquiry have polarized in the late 1980s and early 1990s with the intent on isolating and 3 Ibid., p. 478. * Michael C. Hudson, “After the Gulf Wan Prospects for Democratization in the Arab World," Middle East rournal. v. 45, no. 3 (Summer 1991), p. 407. 5 William Quandt, “The Middle East on the Brink: Prospects for Change in the 21st Century," Middle East rournal. v. 50, no. I (Winter

Load more