Impacts of Hegemonic Decline in Southeast Asia: the Case of ASEAN Cooperation Amidst an Outpaced U.S
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Impacts of Hegemonic Decline in Southeast Asia: The Case of ASEAN cooperation amidst an outpaced U.S. Foreign Policy Anthony T. Reyes POS 4970, Senior Thesis Honors Thesis Candidate Spring 2016 Professor Selden University of Florida Reyes INTRODUCTION I first had the opportunity to visit the Philippines at the age of nine for my grandfather’s funeral. While I was largely oblivious to the deep cultural, familial, and moral obligation I had to be there I did recognize early on that I was no longer in the United States. I vividly remember arriving in Cebu on a rainy day and seeing the streets filled with families coming out of their makeshift shelters to bathe in the rainwater and bottling it for future consumption. My favorite place to visit had always been the local shopping mall where only upper-class Filipinos and foreigners could enter, and where store employees largely outnumbered visiting shoppers. To a younger and more innocent version of myself, the favoritism was a result of it feeling comfortable and familiar to my home stateside. On my most recent visit there, however, the experience was much more different. There were now three shopping centers within a ten-mile radius, and they were crowded. Filled with individuals regardless of income level or economic stratum, I even lost my traveling companion in the sea of people on a busy Saturday morning. When I would arrive at my grandmother’s home, I noticed my cousins were playing with the same Nintendo gaming console I was; with even newer games. This small personal anecdote is used to illustrate the growth of the Southeast Asian sub-region. Economic growth in the region has occurred at unprecedented levels, even impacting my own family there. Individuals each day are increasingly escaping the cycle of poverty, transforming into global-minded consumers and responsible stakeholders in the world. While the growth of Southeast Asia’s relevance and influence on the international stage is undeniable and unlikely to end abruptly, what remains 2 Reyes uncertain is its future. More specifically, the future of how the sub-region relates to the rest of the world is uncertain and needs to be examined. The anecdote captures another trend aside from the remarkable progress occurring in the Southeast Asian domestic condition. Equally as important, it captures the relative progress globally that the region has made towards closing the gap between a developing and developed region. Something as simple as video games can be demonstrative as to how the usual reliance and envy of the developing world upon the United States has decreased. This has allowed international observers to portend that these countries amongst one another are playing an increasingly significant role in the world. While moderating a panel with Southeast Asian business and governmental leaders at the 2014 Annual World Economic Forum, political commentator Fareed Zakaria was right to notice: “If you look at international relations, and you say to yourself: when was the last time you saw a group of countries that were close to one another growing very fast? All growing at three, four, five percent. That had different kinds of political regimes. That had historical problems with one another. That had histories of conflict with one another. Some unresolved border issues or sovereignty issues. But very vigorous economic growth. That place would have been Europe in the nineteenth century. And what you had was 150 years of war.” (World Economic Forum, 2014) Noteworthy caveats to this are that Southeast Asia is decidedly distinct from Europe, the qualities of the world today are fundamentally different from those which characterized the history of the nineteenth century, and the international context in which the sub region is developing in is different as well. But the realization of similar shifts, integrating behaviors, and trends of growth provide an insight into a tension present in the region: higher rewards breed higher risks. As the sub region’s countries continue to prosper alongside one another, realist theory would crudely argue that these countries will follow history and conflict with one another. Growth will translate into having more 3 Reyes to lose, establishing a sense of insecurity and self-driven interests that run diametrically opposed to one another. While the anarchy of realpolitik still shapes state decision making in many ways, an analysis of the present-day Southeast Asian condition by this realist approach forecasts a pessimistic and conflict-riddled future (Keohane, 2005, 67). The liberal institutionalist counter to this gloomy picture understands international institutions, which regional organizations are a subset of, as a valuable tool which increases the likelihood of cooperation and shifts the focus beyond state survival and towards state welfare (Kupchan and Kupchan, 1995). The benefits of information includes the promotion of trust and confidence, lowering transaction costs, issue linkage, and the reduction of uncertainty (Keohane and Martin, 1995). Mentioning these perspectives is noteworthy in understanding how large scale power conflict has not happened between ASEAN states in the twentieth century and is unlikely to occur in the twenty-first century. The primary reason for this lack of conflict is found in analyses of how these Southeast Asian nations relate to one another; such as through ASEAN. The reasoning also factors into the narratives of American relative decline in the region alongside growth of Southeast Asia, and how the two may be related. The countries in the region: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Laos, and Thailand; are ethnically diverse, culturally unique, and have large gaps in development levels. Despite these differences, the two most meaningful characteristics they all share is that they have experienced general economic growth and that they share membership in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. As a regional organization, ASEAN has largely defined how 4 Reyes these nations relate to one another and manage the world around them collectively. It has helped the growth of the region remain stable and peaceful concurrently increasing interdependence in the region independent of the United States. Aside from the enhancement of ASEAN cooperation, one of the even more historically sustained trends is the immense amount of influence that the United States has in Southeast Asia to the point of hegemony. After World War Two and the defeat of the Japanese, American primacy in the region dwarfed the states living there, and with the collapse of the Soviet Union this was even more pronounced. In the present-day, it is important to reassess what role the United States has. How powerful is the role of the United States in the region, given that ASEAN members are looking towards one another within the region for political and economic growth? Do these two trends contradict one another, or are they reliant upon one another? The debate on America’s decline as a global superpower and sole hegemon has been contentious and left incomplete by many international relations scholars. However, a useful way of observing how the role of the United States has changed on the world stage is by viewing it in relative terms. As the twentieth and twenty-first century has seen what Fareed Zakaria has described as the rise of the rest, it suggests that America’s ability to dictate international decision making and define common international interests has been curtailed. It is not as much a failure in American power, as it is an increase in the share of power from other actors. This decrease in relative power by the United States has left states that once looked to America as a security, political, and economic guarantor to look to elsewhere for legitimacy and leadership. The evolution of ASEAN is a meaningful demonstration of this. 5 Reyes Therefore, the argument of this paper is that in an international system with a hegemon present, regional organizations are likely to increase levels of cooperation when said hegemon seems to be in decline. ASEAN has increased levels of cooperation as a result of the relative decline by the United States. They are increasingly looking towards one another, rather than the United States, to carry out their interests. While the actual merits of an America in decline have been contested, the perception of decline has played a powerful role in Southeast Asia. In recognizing the United States’ loss of influence in the Asia region, the ten members of ASEAN have focused efforts on fostering solidarity and creating a common purpose towards dealing with the challenges of the current global system. Brief History of ASEAN The Association of Southeast Asian Nations officially began in 1967 with five members: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. The foreign ministers of these states became signatories to the Bangkok Declaration in August of that year, establishing ASEAN as a regional organization. The document outlined the aims of enhancing political, economic, social, and cultural cooperation to “ensure the survival of its members by promoting regional stability and limiting competition between them” (Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 1967). Nations saw the shortcomings of previous regional ambitions such as the Southeast Treaty Organization (SEATO), Association of Southeast Asia (ASA), and the Greater Malayan Federation (MAPHILINDO) as learning experiences to create a stronger and more useful regional organization. 6 Reyes While these diverse nations came into ASEAN under different circumstances and with different intentions, one common interest at the time brought them together. They were all firmly anti-communist and the shared fear of an internal indigenous uprising was a source for early cooperation between the original members. The institutional structure was non-binding and intended to avoid a strong security orientation. The only mention of security action in the Bangkok Declaration focused on defining foreign bases as temporary establishments and decreasing the influence of external interference in the interest of national identity among members.