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Indo-Israeli Nuclear Posture Against Pakistan: a Case of Deterrence Instability

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Indo-Israeli Nuclear Posture Against Pakistan: a Case of Deterrence Instability T.R. SAKARYA UNIVERSITY MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE INDO-ISRAELI NUCLEAR POSTURE AGAINST PAKISTAN: A CASE OF DETERRENCE INSTABILITY MASTER’S THESIS Muhammad Yaseen NASEEM Department: Middle Eastern Studies Thesis Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Osama AMOUR JUNE-2019 DECLARATION I certify that the research work presented in this thesis is to the best of my knowledge my own. All sources used and any help received in the preparation of this dissertation have been acknowledged. I hereby declare that I have not submitted this material, either in whole or in part, for any other degree at this or any other institution. Muhammad Yaseen NASEEM 31.05.2019 III Sakarya University Middle East Institute Abstract of Master’s Thesis Title of the Thesis: Indo-Israeli Nuclear Posture Against Pakistan: A Case of Deterrence Instability Author: Muhammad Yaseen NASEEM Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Osama AMOUR Acceptance Date: 31 May 2019 No. of pages: viii (pre text) + 203 (thesis) Department: Middle Eastern Studies Republic of India and Israel share their protracted ideological and military antagonism with Pakistan. This study follows critical approach with qualitative method of research for finding the answer of the question “how does Indo-Israeli defense partnership pose asymmetric credible threat to Pakistan for nuclear deterrence instability in South Asia?” by reviewing and analyzing the relevant primary and secondary sources of information (books, journal and newspaper articles, reports, and other published material by experts, scholars and stakeholders). Researcher took benefit from the assumptions of Perfect Deterrence Theory (theorized by Frank C. Zagare and D. Marc Kilgour) about rational decision making, threat capability, threat credibility, status quo and deterrence stability for recognizing conventional and nuclear weapons posture of these countries. This limited academic exercise found that not only existing Indo-Israeli defense partnership directly poses asymmetric credible threat to Pakistan for nuclear deterrence instability in South Asia, but both countries share a history of sharing intelligence and secret arms supply during Indo-Pakistan wars (1965, 1971 and 1999). Further, both countries planned for joint air strikes on nuclear installations of Pakistan in 1979, 1982, 1984, 1986-1987, 1999 and 2003, but the credible retaliatory threat thwarted their plans before execution. Furthermore, Israel neither hesitates while transferring defense technology to India nor prohibits it to use against Pakistan. In Indo-Israeli defense partnership, India mostly remains at receiving end. It has deployed Israel-made air to surface bombs; anti-tank guided missiles; air and ballistic missile defense systems; UAVs and armed drones; early warning systems and intelligence gathering technologies; and spying satellites against Pakistan. Furthermore, India and Israel share relatively common political, diplomatic and military discourse about Pakistan and the issue of Jammu & Kashmir. Moreover, Indo-Israeli defense partnership causes asymmetric relationship with Pakistan and Indian Cold Start Doctrine further increases this asymmetry in both conventional and nuclear weapons domains. Subsequently, Pakistan has to add its nuclear option as a deterrent with ambiguous First Use posture like Israel. Despite declaring No First Use posture, the readiness of Indian conventional and nuclear forces shows its configuration with First Use posture. Resultantly, nuclear deterrence stability is at risk in South Asia. It is significant that India shows its rivalry with Pakistan openly, but Israel and Pakistan mostly ignore to talk about severe antagonism between each other overtly, instead in a euphemistic manner, but they regularly count each other’s defense capabilities in their security calculus. Keywords: Ideological Antagonism, Military Antagonism, Nuclear Doctrine, Nuclear Deterrence, Deterrence Instability I Sakarya Üniversitesi Ortadoğu Enstitüsü Yüksek Lisans Tez Özeti Tezin Başlığı: Pakistan’a Karşı Hindistan- İsrail’in Nükleer Duruşu: Caydırıcılık İstikrarsızlığı Örneği Tezin Yazarı: Muhammad Yaseen NASEEM Danışman: Doç. Dr. Osama AMOUR Kabul Tarihi: 31 Mayıs 2019 Sayfa Sayısı: viii (ön kısım) + 203 (tez) Anabilim Dalı: Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Hindistan Cumhuriyeti ve İsrail Pakistan’a karşı uzun süreli ideolojik ve askeri bir düşman taşımaktadır. Bu çalışma konu ile ilgili birincil ve ikincil kaynakları (kitaplar, dergi ve gazete makaleleri, raporlar ve uzmanlar, akademisyenler ve ilgili kişiler tarafından yayınlanan diğer materyaller) inceleyerek ve analiz ederek Hindistan- İsrail savunma ortaklığının Güneydoğu’da nükleer caydırıcılık istikrarsızlığı için Pakistan’a nasıl bir asimetrik tehdit oluşturuyor? Sorusuna cevap bulmak için nitel araştırma yöntemleriyle birlikte eleştirel bir yaklaşım izlemektedir. Araştırmacı, çalışmada ele alınan devletlerin konvansiyonel ve nükleer silahlara yönelik duruşlarını anlamak için rasyonel karar verme, tehdit yeteneği, tehdit güvenilirlik, statü ve caydırma stabilitesi hakkında Frank C. Zagare ve D Marc Kilgour’ın kuramsallaştırdığı) “Mükemmel Önleme Teorisi”nin varsayımlardan yararlandı. Bu kıstılanmış akademik çalışma, sadece mevcut Hint-İsrail savunma ortaklığının Güney Asya’da nükleer caydırıcılık istikrarsızlığı için Pakistan’a doğrudan asimetrik bir tehdit oluşturduğunu değil, her iki ülkenin de Hint- Pakistan savaşları (1965, 1971 ve 1999) sırasında istihbarat ve gizli silah arzı paylaşma tarihini paylaştığını ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca her iki ülke de 1979, 1982, 1984, 1986-1987, 1999 ve 2003’te Pakistan’ın nükleer tesislerine ortak hava saldırısı planlamış, ancak inandırıcı misilleme tehdidi uygulamadan önce planlarını engellemiştir. Ayrıca, İsrail ne savunma teknolojisini Hindistan’a transfer ederken tereddüt etmekte ne de Pakistan’a karşı kullanılmasını yasaklamaktadır. Hindistan- İsrail savunma ortaklığında Hindistan çoğunlukla alıcı tarafta durmaktadır. Bu anlamda Hindistan’a İsrail yapımı havadan yere bomba gönderen uçaklar, tanksavar güdümlü füzeler; hava ve balistik füze savunma sistemleri; İHA’lar ve silahlı uçaklar; erken uyarı sistemleri ve istihbarat toplama teknolojileri ve Pakistan’a karşı kullanılmak üzere casus uydular sevk edilmiştir. Ayrıca Hindistan ve İsrail Pakistan ve Cemmu&Keşmir meseleleri hakkında ortak siyasi, diplomatik ve askeri söylemleri paylaşmaktadır. Diğer taraftan Hint-İsrail savunma ortaklığı, Pakistan ve Hint “Soğuk Başlama Doktrini” ile asimetrik bir ilişkiye yol açmakta, hem geleneksel hem de nükleer silah alanlarında bu asimetriyi daha da arttırmaktadır. Bilahare Pakistan İsrail gibi belirsiz İlk Kullanım Duruşu’na sahip aktöre karşı nükleer tercihini caydırıcılık amacıyla oluşturmuştur. İlk Kullanım Yok duruşunu ilan etmesine rağmen, Hint nükleer kuvvetlerinin hazırlığı İlk Kullanım duruşunu da yapılandırılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, Güney Asya’da nükleer caydırıcılık istikrarı riske girmiştir. Bu durum Hindistan’ın Pakistan ile olan rekabetinin ortaya çıkarılması açısında önemlidir, ancak Pakistan karşıtlığı bağlamında İsrail ve Pakistan daha çok açıkça ilişki kurmayı görmezden gelirler, bunun yerine örtmece bir şekilde birbirlerini savunma hesaplarında düzenli olarak hesaba katarlar. Anahtar kelimeler: İdeolojik Antagonizm, Askeri Antagonizm, Nükleer Doktrin, Nükleer Caydırıcılık, Caydırıcı İstikrarsızlık. II TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... I ÖZET ............................................................................................................................... II ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................................... VI INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 1: PROTRACTED IDEOLOGICAL AND MILITARY ANTAGONISM OF INDIA & ISRAEL WITH PAKISTAN ..................................... 5 1.1. Ideological Antagonism between India and Pakistan ........................................ 7 1.1.1. Protracted Hindu-Muslim Rivalry ............................................................ 11 1.1.2. Distinct Political Existence of Muslims in India ...................................... 14 1.1.3. Distinct Muslim Civilization in India ....................................................... 17 1.1.4. Role of Religion in Public Life in India ................................................... 18 1.1.5. Urdu-Hindi Language Controversy .......................................................... 21 1.2. Military Antagonism between India and Pakistan ........................................... 23 1.2.1. Boundary Issues ........................................................................................ 23 1.2.2. East Pakistan Crisis and Indo-Pak War 1971 ........................................... 28 1.2.3. Ceasefire Violations ................................................................................. 29 1.2.4. Cross Border Terrorism ............................................................................ 31 1.2.5. Indo-Pak Conventional Arms Race .......................................................... 33 1.2.6. Indo-Pak Nuclear Posture ......................................................................... 34 1.3. Ideological Antagonism between Israel and Pakistan ..................................... 37 1.3.1. Palestine Cause ........................................................................................
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