Military Escalation in 22 June 2019

The military offensive that began in late April 2019 in northwest is still ongoing. The areas included in this military offensive are included in the May 2017 De-escalation Zones Agreement reached by the sponsors of the Astana Talks: Russia, Turkey, and Iran.

This report monitors the most important events during the period from 27 May to 22 June 2019, and sheds light on the impact of the military offensive on the humanitarian situation and general public opinion.

I. General situation

The military campaign initiated by the Government of Syria (GoS) with the support of its Russian ally is concentrated on ’s northern countryside and Idlib’s southern countryside. Most of these areas have been completely destroyed, and the GoS has been able to progress militarily to 15 villages and towns in Hama countryside.

The local council in the town of Kafr Nabl, which administratively belongs to Idlib province and Ma'arat al-Nu’man District in northwestern Syria declared that the town is grief-stricken and that more than 80% of its population had to flee to other areas; 20% of whom were displaced to agricultural lands.

Opposition armed groups, including Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched an organized attack on 6 June 2019, recapturing a number of sites. The territory includes Tal Melh and the adjacent strategic hill, al-Jabin, and Kafrhood. Additionally, they were responsible for shooting down a Syrian warplane.

Various types of weapons, including internationally prohibited weapons, were used in Idlib countryside, specifically in the villages of Karsa, Kafromeh, Hbeit, Naqir, Rakay Sijnah, Kafar Sijnah, and Sheikh Mustafa. According to local sources in these towns, napalm, cluster bombs, and phosphorus were used, beginning on 27 May 2019.

During the last week of May and early June, more than 2,789 confirmed overflights were made. The majority took place from 4 June until 6 June, during Eid al-Fitr (the holiday after Ramazan). The Syrian Air Force targeted the public squares where children gathered for the celebration in Ma'arat al-Nu’man District and the village of Deir Sunbul. Four children were killed.

“We have dozens of hectares planted with wheat and barley, the main crops in our regions, and the military campaign forced us to flee to camps in the north. We heard that many of our crops had been burned and we were unable to harvest the remaining crops,” Said Abo Muhammad, a farmer from Idlib southern countryside.

Sources: https://syria.liveuamap.com/Date: Jun 22, 2019

II. The impact of the military offensive:

- According to response coordinators, during the period covered by the report, May 27 to June 22, the number of victims reached more than 68, including 28 women and 23 children.

- According to local sources, a large number of residents were displaced from Idlib’s southern countryside and moved to the province’s northern countryside. Their number in just two weeks reached about 1,592 families.

“We usually work in these busy days more than - The military offensive has destroyed almost all the days of the year. But, because of the 15 villages. All of their infrastructure, Russian air raids and the massacres that especially hospitals, bakeries, and occurred in the villages and towns around us, humanitarian relief centers were destroyed. the market stopped almost completely, and we are afraid that the GoS will commit a new - During the reporting period, several hospitals massacre,” went out of service, such as al-Akraa and al- Khatib Hospitals in the town of Kafr Nabl. Said Saed, one of the vendors in Ma'arat al- They were hit directly by Russian and Syrian Nu’man. aviation. - Public markets were targeted, especially before Eid al-Fitr (the Festival of Breaking the Fast). The markets of Ma'arat al-Nu'man, Ihsem, , Kafr Nabl, and Hasas were targeted during the second half of May. This has led to the cessation of market movement for fear of massacres.

- The rockets fired at the agricultural fields in al-Ghab Plain set fire to those lands, as documented by the White Helmets, destroying crops.

III. Humanitarian situation

The majority of the recently displaced people have not been able to secure shelters, forcing them to stay in the open air and under the trees. Most of the civilians were displaced during harvest time, causing serious economic problems as agriculture is the main source of income in Idlib province.

The humanitarian response is deteriorating, as there is a lack of support provided by civil society organizations. The largest organizations operating in Idlib are Violet Organization, Watan Organization, Shafak Organization, Molham Volunteering Team, Humanitarian Relief Committee (HRC), GOAL Global, People in Need, and Islamic Relief.

IV. Public opinion

Part of the civilian population in northwest Syria believes that the massacres committed by the GoS forces and their Russian ally are carried out under the eyes of the international community, without any significant response. This makes them angry and causes them to lose their faith in the international community and the political process. Political activist, Abu Maan, pointed out that “the political solution will vanish or end if no new strategy is developed that raises hope among Syrians.”

“In fact, people feel that the world has failed them and the Syrian revolution as well. Although they did not suffer as those who live in Idilb’s southern countryside, they face great difficulties because of the influx of thousands of displaced people to Harim District,” said M.C, a doctor working in Harim District, telling what he hears every day from discussions among people.

On the other hand, civilians are frightened by the land progress of the GoS forces in Idlib. Abu Abdullah, who was displaced from Hama countryside, said that the GoS forces will commit the most terrible massacres if they enter Idlib. Members of the GoS forces post violent publications on social media, vowing to slaughter children, the elderly, and women. They also boast of stealing the homes of the displaced. In Abu Abdullah’s opinion, the solution is clear: all young people in the northern region should join the Free Syrian Army to defend their lands and families.

A.M, a teacher from Mount Zawiya, believes that a military solution is unlikely to end the war and that the ongoing military operations are only a depiction of the warring parties. However, he said that there is blatant international negligence towards the cause of the Syrian people, as thousands of civilians have been killed and displaced under the pretext of fighting terrorism. He also pointed out that it is time for the international community to end this fascist regime through the Security Council and marginalize the roles of Russia and Iran on Syrian soil.

Activists launched a massive campaign on social media calling for the cessation of hostilities in Idlib. However, many activists in the northwest of Syria believe that the international community’s stance is passive. In addition, activists in Europe launched a campaign in public places to stop the military offensive in northwestern Syria and organized solidarity rallies attempting to put pressure on other countries save civilians in Idlib.

V. Recommendations

In the context of this military offensive, the Syrian Civic Platform (SCP) calls for the following:

1) The Security Council should assume its responsibilities on the protection of civilians in Idlib as well as call for an immediate halt to the shelling.

2) The guarantor states of the De-escalation Zones agreement must assume their responsibilities in implementing the provisions of the agreement, specifically Turkey, Furthermore, they must put an end to violations committed by the GoS forces.

3) International humanitarian organizations should immediately respond to the humanitarian disaster in Idlib, especially with regards to internally displaced persons,

4) Activate the political process in accordance with international resolutions, especially Resolution 2254, and accelerate these resolutions to reach a comprehensive peaceful solution that guarantees both the protection of civilians as well as peace in the region.