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High Growth Markets in Southeast Asia Philippines

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High Growth Markets in Southeast Asia Philippines High Growth Markets in Southeast Asia Philippines 6 June 2017 Cosette Canilao [email protected] Snapshot of the Philippines’ Macroeconomy The Good The Bad 6.8% GDP growth in 2016 Persistent income inequality and poverty 6.5 – 7.5% target GDP growth in 2017 Rising inflation (although still within government target of 2-4%) Interest rates remain low Rising % of families who consider Room for fiscal spending themselves poor Main economic drivers remain strong: Shift to ODA financing from PPP for BPO industry and OFW remittances infrastructure projects Strong population demographic (median age as of 2010 was 23.4 years) “Build Build Build” infrastructure program of the current government (7.2% of GDP infrastructure spending target in 2022) Sources: 1. “Dutertenomics: Getting the Fundamentals Right.” Presentation by Secretary Ernesto Pernia, National Economic & Development Authority. 2. http://business.inquirer.net/130649/traffic-costs-p2-4b-daily 12 June 2017 Atkins Acuity 2 The Philippine PPP Program (2010-2016) Project Pipeline as of July 2016: Selected local market players: 15 projects awarded worth over US$ 4.25 billion 1. Ayala Group • Schools • Airports • 4 projects won • Hospital • Bulk Water 2. Aboitiz • Rail • Bus Terminals • Roads 3. Filinvest Development Corp. 4. Megawide Construction Corp. • 4 projects won 5. San Miguel Corp. • 3 projects won Common denominator: Real Estate 12 June 2017 Atkins Acuity 3 Case Study: Laguna Lakeshore Expressway Dike • Design, construction and O&M of 47km flood control dike with a six (6) lane expressway toll road on top • Includes reclamation of 700 hectares located west of and abutting the expressway-dike and separated from the shoreline by a 100-150-meter channel • Bidders: 1. Team Trident a. Trident Infrastructure & Development Corp. b. Ayala Land, Inc. c. Megaworld Corporation d. Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. e. SM Prime Holdings, Inc. 2. San Miguel Holdings Corp. 3. Alloy Pavi Hanshin LLEDP Consortium Major stumbling block: a. Alloy MTD Capital BHD • Government could not guarantee interconnection b. Prime Asset Ventures, Inc. of the expressway to other expressway networks c. Hanshin Engineering Constructions • This affected the access to the reclaimed property which in turn would greatly impact its value. It also affected the traffic projections for the expressway. 12 June 2017 Atkins Acuity 4 Case Study: PPPs and TOD in the Philippines Ayala Corporation has interests in 3 PPP infrastructure projects: (1) ITS South, (2) MCX and (3) LRT 1. As one of the biggest real estate developers in the Greater Metro Manila region, they capitalized on the TOD aspect to place competitive bids for the PPP projects. Real Estate Developments The map below shows the proximity of its real PPP Projects estate developments to their PPP projects Vertis North (Quezon City): • 29-ha mixed-use development (2-ha Light Rail Transit (LRT) 1 garden, high-rise residences and Operation and Maintenance and corporate centers, mall and hotel). Cavite Extension • US$1.3B 10-15 year development • 20km (20 stations), with extension of 12km (8 station); Cloverleaf (Quezon City): 500,000 passengers daily • 11-ha mixed-use development, • 32-year concession accessible via LRT 1 • US$ 500M 10-year development Integrated Transport System (ITS) South: Arca South (Taguig): • Multimodal terminal to facilitate • 74-ha. Mixed-use development transfer of 4,000 buses and (residential development, retail 160,000 passengers daily centers, offices, a hotel and a • 35-year concession hospital) • US$1.6B Evo City (Cavite): Muntinlupa-Cavite • 250-ha. Mixed-use development Expressway (MCX): (high- to mid-rise commercial and • A 4-km 4-lane toll road that institutional developments, and links Cavite to SLEX low-rise residential options and • 30-year concession LRT 1 ITS South retail outlets) LRT 1 Cavite Extension MCX Atkins Acuity Case Study: PPPs and TOD in the Philippines San Miguel Corporation (SMC) has interests in 2 awarded PPP infrastructure projects: (1) MRT 7 and (2) Bulacan Bulk Water Supply, and has submitted an Unsolicited Proposal for a new airport and city complex development in Bulacan. Proposed Real Estate Development PPP Projects Unsolicited Airport Proposal • US$14 B proposal for a 2,500-ha. airport and Bulacan Bulk Water Supply Project city complex development (aerotropolis) • 30-yr concession • Supply water to the province of Bulacan MRT 7 Rail • 25-yr concession Access Road • 22-km mass rail transit with 14 stations that will connect to the MRT/LRT common station • 22-km 6-lane highway that will connect to NLEX Atkins Acuity The shift to ODA financing is not ideal for real estate PPP ODA Efficient and effective delivery of Historically fraught with cost and time infrastructure because performance is overruns (like traditional procurement) directly linked to ability to generate revenues Government has no incentive to fast-track the projects like private sector does Private sector has some degree of control over developing the infrastructure needed for their land banks to be accessed • Will ensure that the infrastructure is done well because it will benefit their real estate interests 12 June 2017 Atkins Acuity 7.
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