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The Challenges of Russian Militarization in Outer Space by Stefan Cako

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The Challenges of Russian Militarization in Outer Space by Stefan Cako analys & perspektiv The Challenges of Russian Militarization in Outer Space by Stefan Cako Resumé Den ständigt växande användningen av satelliter från USA har även lett till ökat beroende av dem för viktiga områden som täcker militär underrättelsetjänst liksom allt fler civila områden. Detta har inte gått obemärkt förbi, då samarbetet mellan Ryssland och Kina intensifieras ge- nom att samla ihop resurser och vetenskaplig expertis för och kunna undergräva och utnyttja dessa tydliga sårbarheter i rymden. Samtidigt som de framgångsrikt för fram ett effektivt nar- rativ om att stödja fred i rymden och icke-militarisering. Artikeln utvärderar det ryska hotet i rymden i skenet av den ökande användningen av ryska gråzonsoperationer och sårbarheter för amerikanska och andra aktörers satelliter. Således sårbarheten för just sådana aktiviteter vilka inom en snar framtid kommer att omfattas av att allt fler diffusa aktörer kommer att nyttja rymden i samband med pågående kommersialisering av densamma. the continuously growing dependency of and long-range radars. Already by 1997 the United States on satellites for vital areas it was dissolved into the Strategic Missile covering military, intelligence and even civil- Troops and then reformed once again in ian use has not gone unnoticed. Russian and 2001. Only to be finally dissolved again in Chinese cooperation is intensifying through 2011 and replaced by Russian Aerospace pooling resources and scientific expertise Defence Force. This lengthy chain of events in order to undermine and exploit the clear represents responses to what was perceived vulnerabilities in space while propagating as offensive strategies by the U.S. at the time, an effective narrative on endorsing peace such as the operations in Yugoslavia and in space and non-militarization. This article Afghanistan to name a few. By 2015 it was assesses the Russian threat posed to outer merged with Air Force in order to focus on space in light of the increasing use of Russian a wide Aerospace theater (air, space and mis- grey zone operations and the susceptibility sile) as they were growing closer and were of the U.S. satellites to such activities in the subsequently afflicted with overlapping tasks. near future. This final reform is vital as it represents a The Development of the coherent and unified theater and has become the norm since then, effectively shedding the Russian Space Forces old lines that created divided theatres headed The collapse of the Soviet Union heralded by multiple actors in order to instead opt to the first iteration of the Russian Space Forces successfully intertwine them. with its initial formation in August 10, 1992. Announcing the merger in 2015, Russian It was initially assigned the responsibilities Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said the merg- of oversight for space launch, space defences er “makes it possible [...] to concentrate 149 nr 3 juli/september 2020 in a single command all responsibility for suspicions of the possibilities for sustained formulating military and technical policy political and economic cooperation, mean- for the development of troops dealing with ing that the Clausewitz dictum that war is a tasks in the aerospace theater and [...] to continuation of political discourse by other raise the efficiency of their use through closer extreme means applies. Astropolitik, like its integration.”1 inspiration realpolitik, is hardnosed and prag- The website of the Russian Ministry of matic in the same spirit. However, this does Defence features a section on the Russian not necessarily outright project a future with Space Force where it states it holds the re- applied violence in space. Dolman instead sponsibility to solve a wide range of tasks suggests a possible realist-liberal synthesis, and then proceeds to list what it identifies utilizing the common goal of deterrence and as the main ones: democracy, in order to achieve an econom- ically robust and peaceful exploration of • Observation of space objects and the outer space by humanity. This is achieved identification of Russian threats in space by shifting the dispute of the role of military and from space, and, if necessary, the forces to shaping social and political insti- parry of such threats. tutions and is the ultimate contribution of • Providing top management with reliable astropolitik.3 Most of the criticism tends to information about the detection of bal- target the assumptions of the theory and with listic missile launches and warning of a good reason, as it is the weak point. Dolman missile attack. draws on human history, highlighting the • Launching spacecraft into orbits, con- domination of the seas and argues that mil- trolling military and dual-use (military itarization of space, while inevitable, is just and civilian) satellite systems in flight and the means to an end.4 the use of some of them in the interests of As long as astropolitik controls space it providing the Russian Federation troops is necessary in order to reverse the current (forces) with necessary information. international malaise and enable an efficient • Maintaining the established composi- way to engage in space exploration.5 This tion and readiness for the use of satellite assumption relies on the actor securing the systems for military and dual-use, their LEO (low-Earth orbit), becoming unchal- launch and control means and a number lenged in space with, at least enough, be- of other tasks.2 nevolence in the long term. Effectively also setting the stage for asymmetrical rationales Launching Geopolitics into in the short term, if not longer depending on framing the control of space as a public Space through Astropolitics good. Under these conditions the only valid Much like geopolitics, astropolitics, while option according to Dolman is the United serving as the extension of grand strategy States--only it can guide humanity through between states, finds itself similarly over- upholding liberalism and free market prin- used with diminishing explanatory power. ciples.6 One of the first attempts to remedy this is Havercroft and Duvall evaluate the dan- the will-to-space-based-hegemony theory gers of these assumptions through their criti- dubbed as astropolitik. The man behind it, cal perspective of astropolitics. They identify Carl Dolman Everett, is a firm realist with an entrenchment of asymmetry among the 150 analys & perspektiv nations, as the result of this domination He instead opts to define spacepower as a would render all relationships hierarchical separate part of modern strategy and exam- with the imperial hub at the top.7 The rami- ine it with the wisdom of famous military fication of dominating the entire globe from theorists, such as Clausewitz. His reason- above would also eliminate all the effective ing behind this lies in how decision makers means of resistance used against land-pow- for space will not have the luxury of wait- er occupations, consequently, rendering a ing until after a conflagration in space and bio-political control turning all inhabitants therefore need the tools for solving these into “bare life”.8 The likelihood that such problems in advance. The purpose of these an imperial centre would be benevolent, let tools is to help frame analyses rather than alone uncorrupted in its total domination of outright questions such as how to win wars. earth, is improbable to say the least.9 The This is primarily achieved through his sev- proverb “power tends to corrupt; absolute en propositions of spacepower theory. He power corrupts absolutely” rings true here, ultimately constructs a spacepower theory more so than ever before perhaps. as a coherent whole while discussing and Havercroft and Duvall also lift an alterna- critiquing existing theories in order to mix tive they label liberal-republican astropolitics or augment them into his pedagogy.12 This by Deudney that start with a similar premise. leads to the increasingly problematic situa- It deviates from the aim of designating the tion the world is currently facing with the right monopoly and aims to establish the is- great power competition reaching to include sue as a collective problem instead. Through outer space. continued cooperation and utilizing technol- ogies, such as spy satellites to monitor and The Sino-Russian Joint U.N ensure all actors abide by treaties, Deudney Proposal argues for an over-time effect of “forging missiles into spaceships”. The crucial point With Russia recognising their clear disadvan- is solving the security dilemma through the tage in aerospace and the outer space beyond development of co-binding security without it, arose the determination to remedy this. sacrificing sovereignty.10 This symmetrical These measures have included the reforms binding of units does on the other hand discussed above, development of technolo- assume that no unit can come to dominate gy with missiles and rockets capturing the the others, in effect ignoring power and the most attention.13 And finally, the cooper- asymmetrical relations structures that will ation with another major power sharing exist in reality. States will always have their some of its goals, as famously advocated own aims amidst disproportionate balance through the Russian multipolarity notion, of powers.11 The effect of this has already perhaps best embodied by Alexander Dugin begun to manifest in space. as a guest lecturer in Shanghai.14 China has With the theoretical foundation laid by not been idle when it comes to expansion these authors, a more modern take on space into the dimension
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