Summary Pakistan National Human Development Report Unleashing the Potential of a Young Pakistan The front cover of this report represents a vi- sual exercise depicting Pakistan’s youth as a 100 young people. Our wheel of many colours represents the multiple dimensions of what it means to be young in Pakistan today. Based on national data as well as results of our own sur- veys, the Wheel presents a collage of informa- tion on Pakistan’s young people (details in Chap- ter 2). This tapestry shows the diversity as well as vibrance of our youth, while also highlighting the inequities and hurdles they face as young Pakistanis. We chose the Wheel as this Report’s motif and cover art, because it represents not only the basis of our hopes for the future, but also our concerns.
Diagram inspired by Jack Hagley’s ‘The world as100 people’. Pakistan National Human Development Report 2017*
Unleashing the Potential of a Young Pakistan
*NOTE: The data (including national statistics, survey results and consultations) in this report was mostly completed in 2016.
Published for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Reports: In 1990, Dr. Mahbub ul Haq produced the first Human Develop- ment Report, introducing a new concept of human development focusing on expanding people’s opportunities and choices, and measuring a country’s development progress though the richness of human life rather than simply the wealth of its economy. The report featured a Human Devel- opment Index (HDI) created to assess the people’s capabilities. The HDI measures achievements in key dimensions of human development: individuals enabled to live long and healthy lives, to be knowledgeable, and have a decent standard of living. Subsequent Human Development Reports (HDRs) released most years have explored different themes using the human development ap- proach. These Reports, produced by the UNDP’s Human Development Report Office and ensured editorial independence by UNGA, have extensively influenced the development debate worldwide.
National Human Development Reports: Since the first national Human Development Reports (NHDRs) were released in 1992, local editorial teams in 135 countries have produced over 700 NHDRs with UNDP support. These reports bring a human development perspective to national policy concerns through local consultations and research. National HDRs have covered key devel- opment issues ranging from climate change to youth employment, to inequalities driven by gender or ethnicity. This is Pakistan’s first National Human Development Report in over a decade. The last one in 2003, the NHDR on Poverty, focusing on growth and governance, was authored by Dr. Akmal Hussain.
Copyright © 2017 United Nations Development Programme, Pakistan 4th Floor, Serena Business Complex, Khayaban-e-Suharwardy, Sector G5–1, Islamabad, Pakistan
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations, including UNDP or the UN Member States.
UNDP has copyrights to all photographs used in the report, taken during the National Youth Consultations.
For contributions and feedback, please email us at: [email protected]
ISBN: 978-969-8736-19-4 Printed in Pakistan by Khursheed Printers
For a list of errors or omissions found after printing, please visit our website at http://pk.undp.org Pakistan Human Development Report 2017 team
Lead authors Dr. Adil Najam and Dr. Faisal Bari
UNDP oversight Shakeel Ahmad (Assistant Country Director, Development Policy Unit)
Management and writing team Umer Akhlaq Malik, Sonia Atallah, and Gemma Stevenson (Coordinators), Dr. Rizwan ul Haq (Statistician), Beena Sarwar (Editor), Muntazir Ali, Saira Talha, Saeed Ahmed, Meeran Jamal, Fazilda Nabeel, Saba Shahid, Nadia Ali Syed, Hina Sheikh, and Beenisch Tahir (Communication)
Layout and Information Design Nida Salman
Operations and administration Naveeda Nazir (Administration) and Azam Khan (Operations)
SUMMARY | iii Foreword
Pakistan is not only one of the youngest The first lever is education for knowledge countries in its region, but also in the world. empowerment of the young. It is the most Sixty four percent of the country’s popula- important tool for improving human de- tion is under the age of 29, with some 30 velopment outcomes as education enhanc- percent between the ages of 15 and 29. For es the capabilities, freedoms and choices at least the next three decades, Pakistan will amongst the young. The NHDR’s resound- continue to be a younger country. ing call is that to enhance human develop- Never have the opportunities for social, ment outcomes both the quantity and qual- economic and political progress been so ity of Pakistan’s education system will have great. Nor have the challenges facing us ever to be improved. been more pressing. As in many countries, The second lever of youth empowerment but more than in most, Pakistan faces an is gainful employment for economic em- important opportunity – indeed, a respon- powerment. From a human development sibility – to place its young at the very cen- perspective, providing decent employment tre of its development priorities. If there is is not just about economic opportunity but one most important lesson of this Report, also about increasing self worth, dignity and it is the need to invest in Pakistan’s youth an expanding capability for social impact. today, to ensure a better future tomorrow. The NHDR views youth unemployment as We have chosen ‘youth’ as the focal top- one of the biggest emerging challenges in ic of Pakistan’s National Human Develop- Pakistan even as it views entrepreneurship ment Report 2017 because we believe in as a great new opportunity. It emphasizes this simple, unequivocal truth: the youth the need to improve the quality of employ- are a powerful force, possibly the most pow- ment, focusing on reducing unpaid and ca- erful force, for transformational change. sual employment. With their demographic size and more The third lever of transformation and importantly their fresh ideas and energy, meaningful engagement for social em- if provided with a conducive environment, powerment as identified by this Report is they can lead the way to sustainable human about voice, identity, inclusion and citi- development. zenship – meaningful social, political and This, the country’s first National Human institutional integration of youth into the Development Report (NHDR) in over a fabric of society and its collective decisions. decade, seeks to understand Pakistan’s hu- The NHDR 2017 reveals the existence of man development challenges and opportu- starkly limited open spaces and inadequate nities from the prism of youth. It focuses engagement opportunities for Pakistan’s on how to improve human development youth to be young. This is especially true outcomes – by empowering young people, for young women. addressing the root causes of the obstacles The NHDR concludes that to utilise they face, and by proposing innovative the youth’s potential as a positive force ways to surmount these challenges. Offer- for transformation and as a human devel- ing first-rate analysis and evidenced-based opment enhancement tool, it is of critical policy recommendations, this Report looks importance to provide them with inclusive at three key drivers of youth empowerment: open spaces to voice their concerns as well quality education, gainful employment and as meaningful engagement opportunities meaningful engagement. These, we believe, in both the social and political spheres. are levers of change that can harness the This Report celebrates the idea of hu- potential of young people and catapult Pa- man development, the invention of one of kistan on a path of greater human develop- Pakistan’s finest intellectuals, Dr. Mahbub ment. ul Haq. The lead authors of this Report, iv | PAKISTAN NATIONAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2017 Dr. Adil Najam and Dr. Faisal Bari, have Marvi Memon, Qazi Azmat Isa, Shahnaz meticulously constructed a framework that Wazir Ali and Dr. Umar Saif. Bringing their is true to Dr. Haq’s ideas of what human de- wisdom and advice from a wide variety of velopment is and how it can be actualised. perspectives and encouraging the authors Most importantly, they have done so by of this Report the freedom to think boldly reaching out and listening carefully to what has made the process as well as the product the young of Pakistan are saying. Behind most rewarding. this Report lies an intensely participatory I am also grateful to the very dynamic process involving 81 youth consultations, team that worked on this Report and to the besides one-on-one interviews, a national wide community of civil society activists, survey on youth perceptions and other out- subject experts and international, nation- of-the-box outreach methods, directly en- al and provincial policymakers who were gaging over 10,000 young Pakistanis. I am deeply engaged and consulted in the pro- proud to say that this Report truly is “for cess. I take great pride in knowing that this the youth and by the youth”. is deeply and truly a country owned Report: Maintaining a long and cherished tra- an NHDR made for, by and in Pakistan. dition that also goes back to Dr. Mahbub ul Haq’s vision, this Human Development Report is an intellectually independent ef- fort supported by UNDP-Pakistan and its partners. It has benefited from the exper- tise, experience and participation of a wide array of stakeholders. Most importantly, we owe a special thanks to the Advisory Council chaired by Ahsan Iqbal, Federal Minister of Planning Development and Re- Neil Buhne forms, and including Dr. Akmal Hussain, Resident Representative Asad Umar, Dr. Baela Raza Jamil, Bushra United Nations Development Programme, Gohar, Jan Muhammad Khan Achakzai, Pakistan
SUMMARY | v Contents
Foreword STATISTICAL ANNEX Acknowledgements Readers’ guide Statistical tables CHAPTER 1 Technical note 1. Human Development Index A human development approach to youth Technical note 2. Youth Development Index Why this Report? Technical Note 3. Youth Gender Inequality Index (YGII) Tapping a nation’s real wealth Technical note 4. Multidimensional Poverty Index How this Report came about: Methodology and a little madness National Youth Perception Survey 2015 Tools that capture our learning Data sources Regional divisions of Pakistan CHAPTER 2 The state of youth in Pakistan BIBLIOGRAPHY Population dynamics and the youth bulge Measuring development FIGURES The Youth of Pakistan as 100 people 1.1 Dimensions of human development Looking ahead 1.2 Human development index (HDI) 1.3 National Human Development Report 2017: an inclusive, participatory and youth-led process CHAPTER 3 1.4 Pakistan National Human Development Report – National Education for the youth’s human development Youth Consultations Harnessing the potential 1.5 Sentiment Meter - NHDR National Youth Consultations State of education in Pakistan 2.1 Population and its growth rate in selected age groups: 1950-2100 Through the voices of the youth 2.2 Share of youth in working age population Beyond formal education 2.3 Timing of the ‘window of opportunity’: dependency ratios 2.4 The changing shape of Pakistan CHAPTER 4 2.5 Share of youth in the total population: 1950-2100 Youth employment and human development 2.6 A conceptual framework of the YDI 2.7 Dimensions and indicators used in the YGII Dimensions of youth employment 2.8 Pakistan is the only non-African country amongst the bottom Delivering quality employment ten Commonwealth countries in YDI. Barriers to quality employment 2.9 The youth of Pakistan as 100 people Leveraging opportunities for quality employment 3.1 Comparison of the youth’s education rankings for selected countries 3.2 Different scenarios to achieve zero out-of-school children CHAPTER 5 3.3 Literacy rate of population above 10 years Youth engagement and human development 3.4 Pakistan’s youth literacy rate varies widely across provinces, regions and gender Engagement as human development 3.5 Enrolment drastically drops at middle and matric level Youth action: political and civic engagement 3.6 Comparison of retention rates from class 1 to 10 for the years Youth development: health and social norms 1996-2006 and 2006-2016 Reflections and the way forward 3.7 Proportion of out-of-school children belonging to the poorest backgrounds is twice that of the richest CHAPTER 6 3.8 Education attainment levels of youth at the time of their first job Enhancing human development through youth 3.9 While a significant number of youth (25–29 years) in urban areas manage to attain at least matric, a major proportion in Necessary steps in the areas of the three Es rural areas has never been to school Policy-wise, what is to be done? 3.10 A significant percentage of Pakistani youth have never been vi | PAKISTAN NATIONAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2017 enrolled in schools; however, the situation is worse for older 5.14 Not many young people, especially young women, decide groups themselves when and who to marry 3.11 The majority of youth in Pakistan enrolled in higher education is 5.15 Majority of youth do not have access to recreational facilities doing B.A./B.Sc./B.Ed./B.CS degrees and events 3.12 Youth with no formal education swell the ranks of unskilled 5.16 Internet connected, but not well connected workers 5.17 How do young people compare their quality of life with their 3.13 There are strong returns to education but only at higher levels of parents’? education 5.18 The top priority of young people in the next five years 3.14 A significant portion of young dropouts in all groups aspire for a second chance to education MAPS 4.1 Youth unemployment rates in Pakistan: 2004-2015 4.2 Regional comparison of unemployment rates amongst youth 2.1 Pakistan Human Development Index (2015 data) (15-24 years) 2.2 Pakistan Youth Development Index (2015 data) 4.3 Unemployment rates across age groups 2.3 Pakistan Youth Gender Inequality Index (2015 data) 4.4 Number of additional jobs required under different labour force participation rates (2015-2045) BOXES 4.5 Young women participate at a much lower rate than young men 3.1 Human capital versus human development in the labour market 3.2 Sustainable Development Goals — Goal 4: Quality education 4.6 Adjusted labour force participation by education attainment across age groups among young women 3.3 Elitism in education 4.7 Divergence in urban-rural female participation rates continues 3.4 Cheating – the new normal, a growing threat to the education due to stagnant urban rates and increasing rural rates system 4.8 There are significant provincial disparities in the unemployment 3.5 Rising phenomenon of youth not in education, employment or rate training (Neet) — the expectation gap 4.9 Unpaid family workers outnumber paid employees 3.6 Evolution of Asia’s successful skills development systems 4.10 A major proportion of youth in all provinces is engaged in low 3.7 Mainstreaming madrassas quality work 4.1 Work and human development 4.11 Only a small percentage of youth attain vocational training; 4.2 Additional employment opportunities to match the youth bulge females are even worse off 4.3 Where will 0.9 million jobs come from? 5.1 Mutually reinforcing capabilities 4.4 The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor — an opportunity for 5.2 Youth perceptions about Pakistan’s progress in the selected employment domains 4.5 Casualization of employment 5.3 Perceptions of how to relate to people of other faiths 4.6 Exploitative employment at its worst — bonded and child 5.4 Youth preferences mapped on the radicalisation continuum labour 5.5 Majority of young Pakistanis believe their nationality and religion 4.7 Start-ups in Pakistan are the most important parts of their identity 4.8 Understanding the youth population subgroup — better data- 5.6 Young people’s trust in various public figures and institutions analysis for better policies 5.7 Future voting behaviour of youth by province/region 4.9 Working time and decent work 5.8 Roger Hart’s ladder of participation 5.1 Youth and disability 5.9 Political party affiliation increases in older age cohorts for young 5.2 Engaging youth to combat climate change and natural males but remains low and consistent for females disasters 5.10 Youth voting behaviour by gender 5.3 Youth in local government bodies: opportunity and 5.11 Percentage of youth which believes that these issues need responsibility immediate attention 5.4 The health of Pakistan’s youth 5.12 Comparison of Pakistan’s maternal mortality ratios with selected 5.5 Maternal health and young women countries 5.6 Child marriage 5.13 Percentage of women (aged 20-24) who marry before the age of 18
SUMMARY | vii SPECIAL CONTRIBUTIONS Human development and youth in the context of public private partnerships in Pakistan - Dr. Baela Raza Valuing philanthropy to build a justice, peaceful and inclusive society - Vocational training today: challenges and opportunities - Abdul Sattar Edhi Dr. Ali Cheema Youth and human development - Ahmad Alhendawi Entrepreneurship and education - Nabeel A. Qadeer The importance of girls’ education - Malala Yousafzai Citizenship and the youth – I. A. Rehman Sports for youth development - Sana Mir Youth radicalisation in Pakistan – Dr. Moeed Yusuf Youth volunteerism - Dr. Muhammad Amjad Saqib EXPERT OPINIONS Information technology: connected identities - Beena Sarwar The importance of teaching teachers to teach - Zakia Sarwar Converting the Internet’s potential into reality - Dr. Taimur Rahman
viii | PAKISTAN NATIONAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2017 A human development approach to youth
Pakistan currently has the largest generation of young people ever in its history, with about two-thirds of the total population under 30 years of age. This includes children under 15 who will be tomorrow's youth. The youth cohort, defined as those between 15-29 years of age, currently forms nearly a third of the country's total population.1 As a section of the populace that is transiting to adulthood, this ‘youth bulge' will prove to be either a dividend or a disaster for the country, depending on how Pakistan invests in its development. The Pakistan National Human Development Report 2017 thus focuses on the youth as a critical force for shaping human development.
Human development and on three main points: Pakistan’s youth • Pakistan has a huge youth population – a youth bulge that is an opportunity now The NHDR 2017 takes the human devel- but will turn into a disaster if not dealt opment approach, measuring human well- with appropriately; being through the prism of “expanding the • How the youth develop and grow will richness of human life” rather than simply critically impact Pakistan as a country. economic wealth, with a focus on people For instance, if engaged and utilised and their opportunities and choices.2 As properly, the youth can serve as catalysts such, this Report relies on the Human for the Sustainable Development Goals Development Index (HDI) as a measure (SDGs); of overall achievement, emphasising three • The youth, a massive segment of the pop- main aspects of a nation’s polity: people, ulation transitioning between childhood opportunities and choices (figure 1).3 and adulthood, will not remain youth HDI variations amongst regions and forever – hence the need to act now. provinces depict the state of choices and opportunities available for people. High- The Report identifies and examines three er HDI figures mean higher development ‘Es’, education, employment, and engage- levels and a greater availability of opportu- ment, as the key levers of change for the Jawan Ideas nities and freedom of choice for individu- youth. These drivers shape the youth’s als to enhance their lives and society. How- experiences as they transition from de- ever, since it is uncertain whether these pendence into independence, physically, opportunities cater to the specific needs emotionally and financially, and begin to of youth and promote youth development, engage with society beyond their families Celebrate the week of August the UNDP has produced, for the first time 14 as National Youth Week. Hold and immediate communities. youth-focused activities, celebrate in Pakistan, two composite indexes that go The three Es are inextricably inter-linked. young role models and emphasise further than the HDI to measure youth Youth employment patterns stem from regional linkages. development: a regionally representative educational trends which may depend on Youth Development Index (YDI) and a the household demographics and regional gender adjusted YDI, the Youth Gender norms, while educational and employment Inequality Index (YGII). patterns influence the youth’s interaction Outlining the state of youth human de- with society, by voting, starting families, velopment in Pakistan, the Report hinges and becoming productive citizens.
SUMMARY | 1 FIGURE 1
Dimensions of human development
le Know dge
D cing hum ec ife han an c e l en ap n y ly ib t h ct ilit s lt ire ie ta a D s n e d H a r d d n a o f
g l i n v o i n L g
Dimensions of Human Development
a P y n t i d a l i r e n a c t c i u i o p c t i q s m o p e l a ju m i t g ti ti l u c o n in a n a n C e t i i l re m o c ty a p o ti lo m s li ng ve ro d fe c e P n on n d a ditions for huma En ty viro uri su nm sec st ental an s aina Hum ight bility and r
Source: UNDP 2016b.
Key messages understanding Pakistan’s young, their needs and aspirations.4 Despite the grow- • Focus on education, employment and ing political consensus about the youth’s engagement will enable Pakistan’s significance for economic growth and the youth to positively impact the polity. importance of reflecting their needs in Failure to provide them with the right policymaking, young people in Pakistan opportunities will lead to disaster, with are often simply not ‘heard’. The NDHR large segments of the population be- 2017 aims to address this neglect and to understand the overall ethos of Pakistan’s Jawan Ideas coming unemployed, uneducated, dis- engaged and disempowered. young population, while recognising that • The situation is urgent, because the the “youth” are not a homogenous mass. youth bulge will start to decrease after The Report also makes the point that another three decades. To attain the dignity lies at the heart of the human de- Encourage local government to maxi-mum benefit, it is imperative to velopment concept. It is dignity that com- create youth community centres invest in the youth now to enhance their pletes the individual at home and at the (Jawan Markaz) with free internet, wellbeing as well as the country’s human workplace, and is also a central factor in meeting rooms and easy access to information on education, development. resolving conflict. jobs, civic opportunities, peer • Quality is essential. Providing the youth The most exciting aspect of this Re- counselling, etc. with education, employment, and en- port is the voices of the youth, obtained gagement opportunities is not enough through an intensely participatory process by itself and can even be detrimental. allowing them to speak for themselves and Policy must focus on providing quality feel ownership of the project (figure 2). in addition to quantity. This involved multiple conventional and unconventional out-of-the-box method- A report “by the youth, for the youth” ologies combining research, data analysis, consultations, and activities with innova- The NHDR 2017 is a first step towards tive outreach and engagement approaches,
2 | PAKISTAN NATIONAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2017 FIGURE 2
National Human Development Report 2017 - An inclusive, partcipatory and youth-led process
1,300 EXPERTS AND KEY STAKEHOLDERS CONSULTED*
1500 4 400 32 10 youth consulted through high level Advisory ideas received for network meetings National Expert 92 volunteers working Council Member meetings collecting 101 consultations under Razakar Ideas 35 programme inspiring Pakistanis 2 interviewed large youth MORE THAN under conferences #KhwabPakistan 81 10 2 held 112,000 Contributing Authors’ back- campaign National Youth Media Briefing events young people ground papers on youth Consultations held More than engaged 2014-2016 130,000 through 64 people reached-out, social media entries received out of which 112,000 platforms under 90% are youth followers on “Hopes & Fears Facebook & National Youth Art Competition” Twitter platforms 350 Perception Survey 2015 42 that engaged youth video messages youth based radio 500,000 carried out across all recorded hopes and fears shows held unique individuals regions of Pakistan of youth
12,000 YOUTH CONSULTED