About the Author

Farhan Anwar did his Bachelors in Civil Engineering and Masters in Urban and Regional Planning and operates as an urban planning and environmental management consultant. He specializes in strategic planning for sector and institutional reforms and change management. His portfolio in- cludes urban sustainability planning and managing participatory planning processes, stakeholder dialogue and consensus building using various participatory planning and social accountability tools - E.g. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), Political Economy Analysis, Problem Tree/Logical Framework Analysis (LFA), Citizen Report Card (CRC), and Community Score Card (CSC). He has extended consulting services to the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Japanese International Corporation Agency (JICA), the World Conservation Union (IUCN), WWF Pakistan and several prominent Pakistani consulting firms. He presently also serves as a Visit- ing Faculty at the Department of Architecture and Planning, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi where he teaches a Masters Course on Planning for Sustainable Development. He has structured and conducted a number of training workshops and brainstorming sessions to review and assess government policies, plans and projects as they relate to the development sector. He has a number of publications to his credit and contributes regularly to leading English language publications in Pakistan on urban planning, environment, and development issues. [email protected]

Author will welcome reproduction and dissemination of the contents of this report with proper acknowledgement.

Shehri-Citizens for a Better Environment 88-R, Block 2, P.E.C.H.S, Karachi 75400 – Pakistan. Tel/Fax: +92-21-34 53 06 46 E-mail: [email protected] Url: www.shehri.org

With the support of Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit Post Box 1733 House 19, Street 19, F-6/2, Islamabad 44000 – Pakistan. Tel: +92-51-2 27 88 96, 2 82 08 96 Fax: +92-51-2 27 99 15 E-mail: [email protected] Url: www.southasia.fnst.org

And Technical Assistance of

The Department of Architecture & Planning, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi

No of printed copies: 3,000 First Edition: 2012 ISBN: 978-969-9491-04-7

Disclaimer: Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this publication. The author or the organization do not ac- cept any responsibility of any omission as it is not deliberate. Nevertheless, we will appreciate provision of accurate information to improve our work. The views expressed in this report do not necessarily represent the views of the Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit. Climate change: Images of a city at risk Contents

ForEworD 06

ACkNowlEDgEmENt 08

INtroDuCtIoN 09 Cities and climate change 09 Pakistan – urbanization and climate change adaptation 13

SECtIoN 1: kArAChI CIty – CoNtExt For ADAptAtIoN 15 Climate change and Pakistan – trends and scenarios 17 Climate change – the Karachi City context 18

SECtIoN 2: uNDErStANDINg thE ImpACtS 22 Flooding 22 Flood preparedness 22 Spatial planning 22 Flood defences and drainage systems 22 Flood storage areas 23 Sources of flooding 23 Drainage basins 23 Assessing the risks 24 Exposure and vulnerability 25 Flood protection 26 At risk – people and assets 26 People 27 Katchi abadis 27 Low lying localities 28 Hill settlements 28 Property and assets 29 Emergency response 29 Vanishing green spaces – vanishing defences 31 End note 33

Drought 35 Water supply 36

4 Contents

A system already in stress 36 Rising water demand 36 At risk – the Hub river/dam service area 37 KW&SB – utility in stress 38 At risk – rural economy and livelihoods 39 Bio-diversity 40 End note 41

Extreme heat Events 41 Urban heat island effect 43 Karachi – a potential for urban heat island effect 44 Population density 44 Transport 45 Industrial growth 47 Fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions 47 Water usage 49 Weakening defences 49 End note 50

Sea level rise 51 Assessing risk 52 At risk – people and assets 53 People 54 Public and private infrastructure 54 Public infrastructure 54 Private infrastructure 55 Ecosystems 56 Mangroves – tidal wetlands 56 The Sandspit/Hawksbay ecosystem – threatened habitat 57 Tropical cyclone in Karachi – likely scenario 58 Scenario 1 – Cyclone category III or above (Worst case scenario) 58 Storm surge wave 59 Storm wind 59 Rainfall 59 End note 59

SECtIoN 3: mANAgINg thE ImpACtS 62

5 Foreword

This unfortunate state of affairs brings into focus the whole issue of bad governance that is at the core of all various unfolding social, political, environmental and fi- nancial crisis that the city is faced with. The institu- tions of state both legislative and executive relevant to the city are lacking both the willingness and capacity to meet these challenges and are often found either turn- ing a blind eye or becoming part of the process of viola- tion of rules and regulations meant to safeguard the city’s interest. On a priority there is a need to make these institutions such as the city government, civic services agencies, land control and law and order agen- he issue of climate change finds relevance to cies accountable to the public and capable of delivering Karachi in that the rapid shifts in weather patterns effectively upon their mandate. In this regard, Shehri- Tand resulting adverse impacts on the physical and CBE is spearheading efforts to improve access of citizens natural environment have a lot to do with human ac- to information and through sustained advocacy influ- tions that are detrimental to safeguarding natures bal- encing decision making processes so that public interest ance. In Karachi, we find that a lot is happening that is is protected. Shehri-CBE is also documenting important seriously damaging the urban environment. Land and land related information such as the status of open water based ecosystems are being destroyed; air is spaces in Karachi, cases of land use violations, land being polluted and natural resources being misman- grabs and land use conversions such as the ill planned aged. Shehri-CBE has over the years focused its work on policy measure of commercialization of traffic corridors trying to document and prevent violation of land use or efforts to create high density zones without any plan- that we feel is one of the fundamental urban develop- ning provisions for environmental protection or viable ment challenges facing the city having numerous direct service provision. At the same time Shehri-CBE strives to and indirect consequences that are seriously constrain- build capacity in public service institutions and promote ing the capacity of the city to meet possible damaging meaningful civil society and service provider interaction climate change impacts. As green spaces are being en- to improve social accountability. croached and coastal land is reclaimed to facilitate de- velopment that will cause irreparable damage to Shehri-CBE appreciates the continuing support of the precious coastal ecology we are destroying natural de- Friedrich Naumann Stiftung in our efforts to improve fences that can protect us from climate change impacts. governance, promote tolerance, strengthen the political Ill planned densification of core city areas is resulting in role of the citizens and protect the physical and natural creating as yet non-quantifiable social and environmen- environment in Karachi and Pakistan. In this regard, this tal stresses. Uncontrolled urban sprawl is putting the al- initiative of outlining a road map for developing a cli- ready over stretched civic services to near breakdown mate change adaptation strategy for Karachi, will cer- status. What is more disturbing is that existing laws are tainly result in identifying areas for governance and being amended and new legislation is being enacted to service delivery reforms and strengthen informed advo- facilitate the process of environmental damage just to cacy efforts of the civil society to ensure good gover- benefit the short term financial interests of a few at the nance and quality living. cost of the majority citizens. Amber Alibhai General Secretary, Shehri-Citizens for a Better Environment

6 Foreword

to safeguard the marine eco-system to conserve liveli- hoods of fisher folk were allegedly killed by their adver- saries. Not long ago, activist Nisar Baloch was assassinated when he was campaigning to safeguard Gutter Baghicha in Karachi. It may be understood that the unplanned urbanization, depletion of natural envi- ronmental assets and unchecked fiddling with marine assets are recipes for a collective suicide! Haywire selec- tion of development projects is also a cause for environ- mental degradation. Large scale energy intensive residential schemes along the main highways in Karachi, Lahore and other cities shall over burden the already n the recently published Global Report on Human Set- fragile infrastructure and supporting environment. De- tlements of 2011 by United Nations, the impacts of forestation, loss of farming foot print, pressure on drink- Iclimate change on the cities across the world are dis- ing water sources, water logging and salinity are some cussed. Warmer and more frequent hot days, fewer cold of the serious issues that are likely to be further com- days, recurring hot waves, rise in heavy precipitation, in- pounded in the regime of climate change. crease in drought occurrence, escalation of cyclone ac- tivity and upsurge in sea levels are common factors The Report offers a rich repository of lessons and exam- experienced by settlements in many regions. The im- ples to benefit from. US and UK have begun retrofitting pacts are felt by cities in varied frequency and time residential and other buildings to limit the emissions of spans. But the key point of common concern – which is green house gases (GHG). City of Los Angeles has de- also emphasized by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon - cided to phase out coal based electricity generation is the accelerated vulnerability of poor and down trod- plants and replace them with renewable energy works. den across the globe. In a well researched note, the Re- Despite severe space constraints, Singapore has been port refers the marginalized communities at the highest implementing an ambitious garden plan that includes of risk level due to several reasons. Residence in poten- developing green connections, green roofing, conserv- tially hazardous locations, inappropriate connection with ing natural heritage and increasing park areas. Beijing physical infrastructure, lack of awareness and informa- has embarked to replace normal lights with energy effi- tion (about impending disasters), potential loss of assets cient light bulbs in schools, streets, public spaces and and livelihoods and inability to cope with disasters as terminal spaces. well as concurrent losses are some factors that make the poor in developing countries prone to maximum de- The sooner we rise to the gravity of situation, the better struction. Pakistan is no exception in this respect. it shall be for our people and cities. It is quite unfortu- nate to notice that the National Climate Change Policy Due to an uncontrolled and sprawling fashion of urban- has ignored the importance of cities in this respect. The ization in Pakistan, the precious natural resources have government will do well by reviewing this serious flaw depleted fast. Whether the mangrove covers around which can cause implications when the policy will be Karachi and environs or the precious farmlands around aligned with implementation. the green terrains of Lahore, expanding residential and quasi-commercial developments continue unabated. Now the conflict of interest between pro-nature and Dr. Noman Ahmed anti-nature groups is so visible that it directly threatens Chairman, Department of Architecture and Planning the peace in cities. On th5 May, two activists who lobbied NED University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi

7 Acknowledgement

Muhammad Anwar at FNSt were a constant source of encouragement and guidance. Dr. Noman Ahmed at the NED Engineering University has for long served as an amazing resource and asset for the city – educating the future planners and always accessible with his keen in- sight on critical urban planning and development issues. The field team of fresh architectural graduates of NED Engineering University – Madiha Salam, Hira Salman and Ali Asghar Babat worked long hours with great com- mitment and enthusiasm, overcoming frustrations in ac- cessing viable data, organizing efficiently what could be gathered and assisting with great competence in coordi- he preparation of the Roadmap has been a chal- nating and documenting meetings and stakeholder dis- lenging and rewarding experience. Challenges cussions. In the finalization and compilation of this Tfaced were many. It was a short duration Study, document, I am greatly indebted to the contributions of completed by a small, yet committed team comprising Mustafa Bhutto and Maryam Hamid Shafiq, project in- of experienced professionals, fresh graduates and stu- terns from the Institute of Business Administration dent interns. As climate change and its cross cutting (IBA), Karachi. Their patience, innovation and skill in themes, particularly within an urban context encompass meticulously working with and organizing countless a wide and diversified canvass, the need to prioritize ob- graphics, illustrations, photographs and textual input jectives and scope of the Study was imperative and proved of great value. proved as the first major challenge. It was decided to profile the city within the context of preparing a climate The Study gained a lot of credibility as a result of valued change adaptation strategy. The profile thus prepared advice and assistance provided by the following individ- can be termed as a Roadmap to developing a compre- uals – Ayub Shaikh, KW&SB, Dr. Jamil Kazmi, Karachi hensive Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Karachi University, Dr. Sarosh Lodhi, Dr.Mir Shabbar Ali, Dr. City. The approach adopted involved looking into identi- Muhammad Adnan and Dr.Atif Mustafa, NED Engineer- fying some critical vulnerabilities, the city may be ex- ing University, Dr.A.R.Tabriz, NIO, Khadija Zaheer, Zeevar posed to in the event of climate change. These Scheik, IUCN, Naomi Alesworth Siddiqui and Dr. Babar vulnerabilities were then placed within the context of Hussain, WWF and Dr. Badar Ghauri, Dr. Arjumand Zaidi the possible consequences of climate change on key and Dr.Muneeza Ali, Institute of Space Technology and physical and natural environment and resources along Rozina Karmaliani, AKU. with development and governance processes and activi- ties. Recommendations have then been made to im- In the end, it is hoped that this document can succeed prove the adaptive capacity of the city. in stimulating debate and consultation on this impor- tant subject of national sustainability and leads to the I am thankful to Shehri-Citizens for a Better Environment initiation of a process of evolving strategies and actions and Friedrich Naumann Stiftung for providing me with for climate change adaptation in urban Pakistan. the opportunity to be a part of this process. I am greatly privileged to have led a wonderful team of professionals engaging and working with whom has been an educa- Farhan Anwar tive and stimulating experience. Sameer Hamid Dodhy, Urban Planner, Project Team Lead Amber Alibhai and Roland de’souza at Shehri-CBE and April, 2012

8 Introduction

hile there is still debate Fig. 1 and conflicting views the temperature is ‘rising’ about the level of accu- W Deviations of the average global temperature of the earth. racy of the various projections and OC 0.5 scenarios related with climate Relative to the average temperature of the climatic period 1961 -1990 (equals zero) change, and the measures that 0 need to be prioritized now for tack- -0.5 global average temperature (northern hemisphere) 1850 1900 1950 2000 ling possible impacts and conse- OC 1 quences in the future, there is Zone of uncertainty 0.5 nevertheless a growing consensus 0 that the global climate is changing. The world is becoming warmer and 0.5 extreme weather conditions such as 1.0 tropical cyclones, strong rain with flooding or long dry periods have in- year 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Continual temperature creased in the past years . Within Determined via proxy data measurement this context, a critical understanding Source: simplified according to IPCC (2001/7007) is that it is the human influence that (Source: IPCC, 2007) is largely responsible for these rapid shifts in weather patterns that are of radiant energy by partially hang- key role. Its participation in the quite possibly pushing the earth’s ing the sun rays after reaching the man-made greenhouse effect is climate beyond a tipping point surface. These gases are therefore placed at approximately 60 % with where certain adverse impacts and known as green house gases. They about three quarters of the man- consequences may become irre- are responsible for the natural made increase in CO2 resulting from versible. This alarming realization is green house effect that keeps the the burning of fossil fuels . now lending a sense of global ur- earth’s average temperature at gency for devising appropriate sys- about 15 °C – without them about - tems, processes and methodologies 18 °C. The natural green house ef- CItIES AND ClImAtE to meet this challenge. fect is what makes life on earth ChANgE possible.1 However, human activities Trace gases such as water vapor, such as the combustion of fossil The strong link between climate carbon dioxide (CO2), methane fuels, industrial pollution, land use change and urbanization is nothing (CH4), nitrous oxide (laughing gas changes and deforestation, among new but the immensity of the chal- N2O), and ozone (O3) though only others, have enhanced significantly lenge is now becoming more evi- show up in very slight amounts in the concentrations of GHGs in the dent. If a single historical event can the earth’s atmosphere, have a sub- atmosphere together with a reduc- be identified for having the most stantial impact on climate: all have tion of the capacity of oceans and significant impact in altering dra- the similar effect as glass windows vegetation to absorb GHGs. This is matically the ecological balance in do in a green house. They allow sun referred to as an additional or man- the world than it has to be the ray of shorter wavelengths to pass, made green house effect . With re- onset of the age of industrialization. while filtering longer wave lengths gard to this, carbon dioxide plays a Since the onset of the industrial era,

1 Information on the Topic of “Climate”: Fundamentals, History and Projections (2005 ,Allianz Foundation for Sustainabiliy)

9 Introduction

Fig. 2 Urban areas occupy only 2.8% of the ‘Additional greenhouse Effect’ the earth’s surface yet as of 2008 more than 50% of the world’s popu- lation inhabits urban areas. Rapid urbanization is occurring largely in Misc. developing countries where a mas- approx. 14% sive demographic shift has enor- Laughing mous implications in terms of gas approx. 6% CO2 approx. 60% poverty, natural resources and the

CO2 environment. According to UN- Methane Methane HABITAT’s recently published Cities Laughing gas approx. 20% and Climate Change: Global Report on Human Settlements (2011) ‘the proportion of human-induced (or anthropogenic) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from participation of climate-effecting gases on the additional greenhouse effect cities could be between 40 and 70 per cent, using production-based figures (i.e. figures calculated by Fig. 3 adding up GHG emissions from enti- the ‘Contributors’ ties located within cities). This is in Changes in the concentration of climate-influencing gases comparison with as high as 60 to 70 ppm ppm ppm per cent if a consumption-based 400 1.8 0.04 method is used (i.e. figures calcu- lated by adding up GHG emissions 300 0.03 resulting from the production of all 379 1.77 goods consumed by urban resi- 200 1 0.02 0.032 280 0.027 dents, irrespective of the geo- graphic location of the production). 100 0.01 The main sources of GHG emissions 0.71 0 0 from urban areas are related to the consumption of fossil fuels. They in- 0 clude energy supply for electricity Co2 1750 2005 methane 1750 2005 laughing gas 1750 2005 generation (mainly from coal, gas Source: According to IPCC (2007) and oil); transportation; energy use in commercial and residential build- concentrations of CO2 and methane centers have played a key – though ings for lighting, cooking, space (CH4) have increased, with an in- not yet fully understood – role in heating, and cooling; industrial pro- crease of 70 per cent during the this process.2 1970 to 2004 period, and urban duction; and waste’.

2 Global Report on Human Settlements 2011,United Nations Human Settlements Programme

10 table 1 The pace of urbanization in the world today is unprecedented, with Cities’ Contribution to global Anthropogenic ghg Emissions, by Sector a near quintupling of the urban Sector percent- Justification for estimating the proportion of percentage population between 1950 and age of ghgs from cities, from the perspective of the of ghgs global location of activities that produced them allocated to 3 2011. While these figures may be ghg cities alarming enough what is a cause of emissions greater concern is the fact that most A high proportion of fossil fuel power stations are Energy not in cities, especially the largest cities. of the growth in urban population is 25.9 8.6-13.0 centered in the developing and least supplya One third to one half of emissions from city-based power stations. developed countries that are least A large proportion of heavy industry (which ac- equipped to adapt to the possible counts for most GHGs from industry) is not lo- consequences. The developing cated in cities, including many cement factories, Industry 19.4 7.811.6 countries now host nearly three- oil refinehes. pulp and paper mills, metal quarters of the world’s urban popu- smelters. Two-fifths to three-fifths of emissions in lation and more than 90 per cent of cities. b the world’s urban population Forestry 17.4 No emissions assigned to cities 0 growth is currently taking place in Some large cities have considerable agricultural output, but mostly because of extended bound- 4 Agriculture 13.5 0 developing countries. The rising aries encompassing rural areas. No emissions as- mega cities of the world are thus signed to cities. mostly those that have high concen- Private use of motor vehicles a large part of this. trations of growth centered in infor- Should commuting by car by those living outside cities be assigned to cities? Should city dwellers mal settlements and slums and Transport 13.1 7.9-9.2 often have profound deficits in gov- driving outside city boundaries be assigned to their city? 60 to 70 per cent of emissions assigned ernance, infrastructure, and eco- to cities. nomic and social equity . Residential Large sections of middle- and high-income groups and in developed countries live outside cities - and a The global response to the climate commer- 7.9 significant and increasing proportion of commer- 4.7-5.5 challenge is presently being geared cial build- cial buildings are located outside cities.60 to 70 towards developing and implement- ings per cent of emissions assigned to cities. More than half of this is landfill methane; but a ing mitigation and adaptation Waste and proportion of this would be released outside waste- 2.8 1.5 strategies. Mitigation within the urban boundaries from waste generated inside water context of climate change refers to cities. 54 per cent of emissions assigned to cities. the reduction of greenhouse gas totalc 100 30.5-40.8 (GHG) emissions and their capture (Source: Global report on human settlements 2011,UNITED NATIONS HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PRO- and storage. As such, urban settle- GRAMME) ments and those too mostly in the Notes; a A large pan of this is from fossil fuel power staoons. Excludes refineries, coke ovens, etc., which developed world are the focus of are included under industry. b Land use and land-use changes. mitigation strategy development c Total emissions for the GHGs covered by the Kyoto Protocol amounts to 49 billion tonnes of C02eq. and implementation. Drawing on Sources: based on Barker« al. 2007: Saaerthwajte. 2008a. pS44

3 United Nations, 2010 4 United Nations, 2010 11 Introduction

table 2 urban population projections by regions (2010-30) urban population proportion of total population living in urban population rate of change (% region (millions) urban areas (%) change per year) 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010-2020 2020-2030 World total 3486 4176 4900 50.5 54.4 59.0 1.81 1.60 Developed 930 988 1037 75.2 77.9 80.9 0.61 0.48 countries North America 289 324 355 82.1 84.6 86.7 1.16 0.92 Europe 533 552 567 72.8 75.4 78.4 0.35 0.27 Other developed 108 111 114 70.5 73.3 76.8 0.33 0.20 countries Developing 2556 3188 3863 45.1 49.8 55.0 2.21 1.92 countries Africa 413 569 761 40.0 44.6 49.9 3.21 2.91 Sub-Saharan Africa 321 457 627 37.2 42.2 47.9 3.51 3.17 Rest of Africa Asia/Pacific 92 113 135 54.0 57.6 62.2 2.06 1.79 China 1675 2086 2517 41.4 46.5 52.3 2.20 1.88 India 636 787 905 47.0 55.0 61.9 2.13 1.41 Rest of 364 463 590 30.0 33.9 39.7 2.40 2.42 Asia/Pacific 674 836 1021 45.5 49.6 54.7 2.14 2.00 Latin America and the Caribbean 469 533 585 79.6 82.6 84.9 1.29 0.94

Least developed 249 366 520 29.2 34.5 40.8 3.84 3.50 countries Other developing 2307 2822 3344 47.9 52.8 58.1 2.01 1.70 countries

Source: UN.2QIQ;see also Statistical Annex. Tables A.1,A.2,A.3,B.1,B.2,B.3 the definitions of the Intergovern- and adaptation though are society organizations, households mental Panel on Climate Change processes that need not be consid- and individuals with strong adaptive (IPCC), adaptation to (human-in- ered contradictory to each other - capacity. For cities or particular duced, or ‘anthropogenic’) climate rather they complement each other urban neighborhoods, it indicates a change is understood to include all in that focusing on one also capacity to maintain core functions actions to reduce the vulnerability strengthens the capacity indirectly in the face of hazard threats and im- of a system (e.g. a city), population of the other . pacts, especially for vulnerable pop- group (e.g. a vulnerable population ulations. It usually requires a in a city) or an individual or house- The outcome of successful adapta- capacity to anticipate climate hold to the adverse impacts of an- tion is resilience – and is a product change and plan needed adapta- ticipated climate change. Mitigation of governments, enterprises, civil tions. The resilience of any popula-

12 tion group to climate change inter- Fig. 4 acts with its resilience to other dy- tackling the Climate Change Challenge namic pressures, including economic change, conflict and vio- lence.5

While Pakistan is vulnerable to ad- verse impacts of climate change, its own contribution to the total global GHG emissions is limited (about 0.8%) and its per capita GHG emis- sions correspond to about one-fifth of the average for Western Europe (IEA/OECD 2006). Pakistan was thus ranked at 135th place on the basis of its per capita GHG emissions without land use change and at Fig.5 149th place when land use change ghg Emissions in pakistan (1994-2008) was also taken into consideration All Data is in million ton Carbon Dioxide Equivalents (mtCDE) (US-DOE 2009).6 As such, the main thrust of the country’s response to climate change is bound to be on 2008 adaptation measures.

1994 pAkIStAN – urBAN- 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 IZAtIoN AND ClImAtE ChANgE ADAptAtIoN 1994 2008 Energy 85816 156821 Agriculture 71632 120284 In Pakistan, demographic trends Industrial Processes 13297 17866 show that the country’s population LULUCF 6527 8920 Wastes 4454 5505 has been rapidly urbanizing, with an Source: National Economic and Environmental Development Study ,2011 average annual rate of urbanization exceeding 4 per cent since 1951. It about 12 cities housing more than million. The urban population is es- is estimated that by the year 2030, one million people. The urban pop- timated to surpass 121 million by Pakistan will be predominantly ulation recorded during the 1998 the year 2030. The level of urban- urban with 45.6 per cent of its pop- Census was nearly 43 million and is ization of 45.6 percent would then ulation living in urban areas and currently (2010) estimated at 63.1 be the highest amongst the South East Asian countries.7

5 Global report on human settlements 2011,United Nations Human Settlements Programme6 6 Task Force Report on Urban Development, 2011,Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan 7 Task Force Report on Urban Development, 2011,Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan

13 Introduction

the Study – objectives and Scope has suddenly opened up to manage issues that we have to resolve cli- o provide a process based ‘framework’ and a ‘roadmap’ for develop- mate change or no climate change. Ting a comprehensive ‘Climate Change Adaptation Strategy’ for Karachi Adaptation to climate variability city by: consists of actions to reduce vulner- • Identifying the possible climate change scenarios ability to short-term climate shocks • Identifying some critical people and assets at potential risk (whether or not influenced by cli- • Profiling major vulnerabilities in terms of critical hindrances (re- mate change) – for instance, as a search, policy, planning and overall governance context) in the way of enhancing the adaptive capacity of Karachi City against climate city government ensures that the change and climate variability drainage system can cope with • Providing a list of actions for strengthening the resilience of monsoon rains or that green spaces Karachi City are protected and enhanced to act as drainage basins. Most of the bring the urban context in perspec- measures for adapting to climate Urban development challenges in tive in Pakistan’s drive towards ef- variability (which will be taking Pakistan are complex and the way fectively meeting the challenges of place in most well-governed cities) development is taking place is more climate change. The focus is on will also contribute to climate in the nature of mal-adaptation Karachi City – the largest urban cen- change adaptation (as a co-benefit). rather than meeting the require- ter of Pakistan offering the most ments of adaptation if relevance is complex set of urban development drawn to the climate change con- challenges anywhere to be found in text. In this regard it is a matter of Pakistan. The Study does not pres- some concern that in efforts to ent an adaptation strategy in itself tackle the climate change challenge instead it identifies a process for re- in Pakistan there is limited if any lating the experiences of our urban focus on urban settlements and growth in the classic framework of even the recently notified Climate developing a comprehensive urban Change Policy for Pakistan, ap- climate change adaptation strategy. proved by the Federal Cabinet and It aims to identify and prioritize the to be implemented by the Federal people and assets at possible risk Disaster Management Ministry di- and the key actions required to rects attention mostly on agricul- make Karachi a more resilient city in ture, forestry and water resources addition to identifying the critical and separates out urban activities governance, institutional, techno- into a sector based categorization logical gaps and constraints. rather than consider them in a ho- listic urban context. A key focus is on the need to under- stand that the context of climate Through this Study, an effort is change offers cities all over the being made to stimulate debate and world a viable option to capitalize dialogue around the urgent need to on a window of opportunity that

14 Section 1: Karachi City – Context for Adaptation

arachi City has a land area of Fig. 6 3,640 km² and is located on karachi geographical location Kthe Arabian Sea coast in the extreme south of Pakistan.

Karachi has expanded exponentially both in terms of urban sprawl and in terms of growth in population. About 63% of the population of the metropolitan area lived within 10 kilometers of the city center in 1972. By 1981, it had declined to 52%, as urban development and concomitant population growth transformed the ring to between 11

karachi – the physical City location: Karachi, the provincial cap- water channels. Karachi has a long east and north-east maintaining an ital of Sindh, is also the largest city of coastline in the south. The famous average temperature of about 21ºC. Pakistan covering an area of 3,527 sea beaches include Hawks Bay, Par- The hottest months are May and km2. It is located at 24º45” to adise Point, Sands Pit, and Clifton. June when the mean maximum tem- 25º15” north and 66º37” to 67º37” China Creek and Korangi Creek pro- perature reaches 35ºC. January is east. It is bounded by Dadu District vide excellent calm water channels the coolest month of the year. Dur- in the northeast, Thatta District in for rowing and other water activities. ing the rainy season in July and Au- the south-east, the Arabian Sea to Away from the shoreline are small is- gust, it remains cloudy almost every the south and the Lasbela District of lands including Shams Pir, Baba and day with generally scanty rainfall. Baluchistan Province to the west. Bhit. However, there are surprising varia- tions from year to year. The average topography: Karachi may be broadly Climate: Karachi has a moderately annual rainfall is 256 mm, but in cer- divided into two parts; the hilly temperate climate with a generally tain years rainfall is higher and it areas in the north and west and an high relative humidity that varies may rain heavily within a short span undulating plain and coastal area in from 58 per cent in December (the of 48 hours. the south-east. The hills in Karachi driest month) to 85 per cent in Au- are the off-shoots of the Kirthar gust (the wettest month). A cool Range. The highest point of these evening breeze is a great boon to the hills in Karachi is about 528m in the inhabitants. The winds in Karachi for extreme north. All these hills are de- more than half the year, including void of vegetation and have wide in- the monsoons blow south-west to tervening plains, dry river beds and west. The wind in winter changes to Source: The Case of Karachi, Pakistan, 2003, Arif Hasan, Masooma Mohib

15 Section 1: Karachi City – Context for Adaptation

and 20 kilometers from the center. Fig. 7 By 1987, the core area of Karachi phenomenal urban Sprawl (the area within five kilometers of the CBD) accounted for less than Before Partition Year 1955 20% of the total regional popula- tion.8 At present over half of Karachi’s population resides at a dis- tance of more than 10 kilometers Year 1987 from the city center. Year 1974

Karachi had very little industry up to the mid-twentieth century, but after the creation of Pakistan in 1947, it Year 2001 became the national capital, and Navel base, and the only seaport in Pakistan physically well protected against storms. Its other location based advantage has been land Source: Karachi Strategic Development Plan 2020, August 2007, CDGK route connection with Iran, Afghanistan, China and Central table 3 Asian countries, and sea route con- population Statistics of karachi – 1931-2020 nection with India, Sri Lanka and Annual growth rate years population nearby Arab countries. Karachi has (Agpr) (%) thus attracted significant employ- 1931 2,63,565 - ment opportunities and its popula- 1941 3,86,655 3.70 tion swelled dramatically, ushering in the modern age of Karachi as a 1951 10,68,459 11.50 port and dominant commercial and 1961 19,12,598 6.05 industrial center. 1971 35,15,402 5.00 1981 54,37,984 4.96 Karachi, the capital of Sindh 1998 98,56,318 3.52 province, is now the commercial 2002 11,364,707 3.02 hub and gateway of Pakistan . It ac- 2005 15,120,000 4.15 counts for 95 per cent of Pakistan’s foreign trade and contributes 30 per 2010 18,529,000 4.05 cent of Pakistan’s industrial produc- 2015 22,594,000 4.05 tion (ADB, 2006a). Nearly 90 per 2020 27,550,000 3.50 cent of the country’s head offices of Source: The fast growing megacity Karachi as a frontier of environmental challenges: Urbanization and contemporary urbanism issues, 2010, Salman Qureshi - (a) Estimated population using annual popula- banks, financial institutions and tion growth rate (APGR), (b) Projected population by CDGK-MPGO (2007)

8 Karachi Land and Housing Study, 1989, Dr. D. Dowell, United Nations Centre for Human Settlements

16 multinational companies are lo- table 4 cated in Karachi (ADB, 2005a). The Composition of karachi’s Economy (1984/85 – 2006/07) country’s largest stock exchange is (rupee Billions at 1959-60 Factor Cost) Karachi based. The city contributes Value Share in Long Term Value Added Share in GRP 20 per cent of the national gross do- Sector Added GRP Growth Rate (2006/07) (2006/07) mestic product, accounts for 40 per (1984/85) (1984/85) a b a b a b cent of national employment in Gross Regional 13.7 52.6 61.8 large-scale manufacturing and con- Product tributes 25 per cent of national and Primary Sectors* 0.2 1.34% 3.3% 3.3% 0.4 0.4 0.7% 0.6% 40 per cent of provincial revenues Secondary 5.1 37.4% 6.7% 3.5% 21.4 10.9 40.6% 17.7% (ADB, 2005b). Sectors* Tertiary Sectors* 8.4 61.2% 6.1% 8.5% 30.9 50.5 58.7% 81.7% Karachi is divided into planned Source: Karachi Strategic Development Plan (KSDP) 2020 – Kaiser Bengali areas and unplanned areas. Un- Notes: “a” is based on Bengali (1988) “b” is consultant’s estimate based on discussions with GoSindh and World Bank *Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries and Livestock; Mining and Quarrying **Manufacturing; planned areas are mostly in the na- Construction; Electricity and Gas Distribution ***Transport, Storage and Communications; Wholesale ture of katchi abadis (urban and Retail Trade; Ownership of Dwelling; Banking and Insurance; Public Administration squatter settlements). The katchi abadis represent the most recogniz- has a warm climate; it lies in a world temperature over Pakistan will in- able face of informal settlements in region where the temperature in- crease in the range 1.3-1.5 °C by Karachi and have existed from the creases are expected to be higher 2020s, 2.5-2.8 °C by 2050s, and 3.9- time of the creation of Pakistan with than the global averages; its land 4.4 °C by 2080s, corresponding to instances of illegal sub-division of area is mostly arid and semi-arid an increase in average global sur- land documented as far back as the (about 60 per cent of the area re- face temperature by 2.8-3.4 °C by 1950’s. The katchi abadis have ceives less than 250 mm of rainfall the turn of the 21st century. Precip- grown at twice the rate of the per year and 24 per cent receives itation is projected to increase planned areas. In 1998, 50% of the between 250-500 mm). During the slightly in summer and decrease in population or 700,152 households last century, average annual tem- winter with no significant change in lived in katchi abadis. This popula- perature over Pakistan increased by annual precipitation. Furthermore, tion has now increased to 61% or 0.6 °C, in agreement with the global it is projected that climate change 1.2 million households.9 trend, with the temperature in- will increase the variability of mon- crease over northern Pakistan being soon rains and enhance the fre- higher than over southern Pakistan quency and severity of extreme ClImAtE ChANgE AND (0.8 °C versus 0.5 °C). Precipitation events such as floods and pAkIStAN – trENDS over Pakistan also increased on the droughts.10 AND SCENArIoS average by about 25 %. Studies based on the ensemble outputs of Pakistan can be quite vulnerable to several Global Circulation Models climate change because it generally (GCMs) project that the average

9 Participatory Development, 2010, Arif Hasan 10 Task Force Report on Climate Change, February 2010 – Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan

17 Section 1: Karachi City – Context for Adaptation

ClImAtE ChANgE – karachi City – the Context for Climate Change thE kArAChI CIty Extreme Flooding Drought Sea level rise CoNtExt heat Events Significant human The Hub River Inadequate health Sensitive national Main factors that contribute to vari- settlements (e.g. source, a rain fed and emergency installations and ability in Karachi’s weather are: slums) exposed to source is a major response infra- significant human fluvial, storm water supply structure and settlements (fish- • Western disturbances: Occurs water flooding source for Karachi services to cope ing communities) during the winter months, cause risk and hill tor- (5 million popula- with large scale exposed to tidal drizzle to light showers and de- rents tion served) spread of infec- flooding creases in temperature. tious diseases • Tropical storms: Occurs during Sensitive national Livelihoods of sig- Biodiversity im- summer months from late April installations and nificant human Shortage in en- pacts/wetlands till June and again from late Sep- significant human settlements based ergy and substan- and tidal zones tember till November. settlements (fish- in rural Karachi tial energy loss and loss/alter- • Southwest monsoon: Occurs in ing communities) (Goths) depend- Energy consump- ation of summer from the July till Septem- exposed to tidal ent on farming tion increasing flora/fauna – pos- ber. These monsoon rains are flooding mostly using and no efforts to sible salt water in- quite heavy by nature and can ground water promote energy trusion cause significant flooding. Other than the conservation • Continental air: which is charac- ‘Malir River Em- Ground water teristically dry, prevails during the bankment’ no table is lowering Due to rising pop- period when there is no precipita- provision for and aquifers are ulation density in tion in the metropolis 11 flood defences threatened due to ‘inner city’ and in- and drainage human activities creased traffic In addition to these direct influ- channels chocked such as sand /congestion the ences, changes in ocean and atmos- or blocked extraction likelihoods of the pheric conditions in distant ‘Heat Island Ef- locations also impact the climate of No provision of No water conser- fect’ increasing Karachi, particularly the monsoon. flood storage vation , waste even further Historical weather data for Karachi areas water recycling indicates that there is no significant or rain water har- change in the average precipitation vesting practices in Karachi. In contrast trends in tem- being promoted perature data clearly show an up- in the city ward trend and increase in average temperature over the years.

11 Climate Profile of Karachi, KW&SB Climate Change Adaptation Strategy,2012, Ujala Qadir, WSP

18 Over the past years cyclones tend to Fig. 8 recur frequently though, most did trends in Annual precipitation for karachi not seriously impact Pakistan’s coast. However,cyclone of 1999 se- n The green line in the figure 800 riously impacted Thatta and Badin below shows observed precipi- districts of Sindh and affected 0.6 700 tation in Karachi from 1914 to million people and caused loss of 2010, which is clearly highly 600 202 lives. Cyclone Yemyin in 2007 variable in nature 500 had a much wider imprint affecting 26 districts of Balochistan / Sindh 400 n The red line represents the av- 300 and 2.5 million people, causing 400 erage of the precipitation using (mm) Rainfall 12 fatalities. a statistical regression analysis. 200

This line indicates that there is 100 The capacity context for adapting to no significant change in the av- possible climate change scenarios in erage precipitation in Karachi 0 Karachi is grim. While Karachi still 1914 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 serves as the commercial backbone (Source: Climate Profile of Karachi, KW&SB Climate Change Adaptation Strategy,2012,Ujala Qadir, WSP) of Pakistan there is increasing socio- economic disparity and growing en- Fig. 9 vironmental degradation. Human settlements such as slums and hill trends in temperature over karachi settlements are exposed to fluvial, n The redline represents the 28.0 storm water flooding risk and hill observed temperature data torrents in the absence of appropri- for Karachi for the period 27.5 ate protection and emergency re- y = 0.018x+25.54 1931-2007 showing an up- 27.0 sponse systems. Sensitive national ward shift installations and human settlements 26.5 such as fishing communities are ex- n The purple line is fitted to 26.0 posed to tidal flooding. the data using regression analysis indicating the trend 25.5 Other than the Malir River Embank- ment there are no provisions for 25.0

flood defences and drainage chan- 1931 1936 1941 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1980 1985 1990 1955 2000 2005 2010 nels are chocked or blocked. There (Source: Climate Profile of Karachi, KW&SB Climate Change Adaptation Strategy,2012, Ujala Qadir, WSP)

12 Cyclone Contingency Plan for Karachi City, 2008, National Disaster Management Authority, Government of Pakistan

19 Section 1: Karachi City – Context for Adaptation

Fig. 10 is no provision of flood storage areas. If we take the case of a possi- Average temperature ble drought scenario than the Hub River source, a rain fed source is a 40 major rain fed water supply source 35 for Karachi serving a population of 5 30 million. Livelihoods of significant 25 human settlements based in rural 20 Karachi Goths are dependent on

C 15 O farming mostly using ground water. 10 Ground water table is already low- 5 ering and aquifers are threatened 0 due to human activities such as Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec sand extraction. No water conserva-

Maximum Mean Minimum tion, waste water recycling or rain water harvesting practices are being (Source: Climate Profile of Karachi, KW&SB Climate Change Adaptation Strategy,2012, Ujala Qadir, WSP) promoted in the city.

Fig. 11 There is shortage in energy and sub- stantial energy loss. Energy con- Average rainfall sumption is increasing and no efforts ongoing to promote energy 90 conservation. Due to rising popula- 80 tion density in inner city and in- 70 creased traffic /congestion the

60 likelihoods of the Heat Island Effect taking place is quite likely. In the 50 context of a possible sea level rise, 40 adverse biodiversity impacts on mm wetlands and tidal zones and possi- 30 ble loss of flora and fauna can be 20 anticipated. Mangroves that can act 10 as a buffer against tidal flooding are already being devastated. 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

(Source: Climate Profile of Karachi, KW&SB Climate Change Adaptation Strategy,2012, Ujala Qadir, WSP)

20 Fig. 12 karachi - the overall Climate graph

karachi, pakistan Climate graph (Altitude: 2m) 35 90

30 80 70 25 60 20 50 15 40 30 10 Relative Humidity Relative Wind Speed/Frost 20 5 10

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 Climatetemp.info Min Temp (oC) Max Temp (oC) Average Temp (oC) Precipitation (Cm) Temperatures/Precipitation/Wet Days/Sunlight/ Temperatures/Precipitation/Wet Wet Days (>0.1 mm) Average Wind Speed (Beaufort) Days with Frost Relative Humidity (%) (Source: Climate Profile of Karachi, KW&SB Climate Change Adaptation Strategy,2012, Ujala Qadir, WSP)

Land use violations leading to en- nancial resources offers a window croachments of parks and play- of opportunity for urban managers grounds, coastal sensitive ecological all over the world to access the re- land is eroding the natural barriers sources and plan and implement capable of reducing the adverse im- measures to not only prepare for pacts of climate change. possible climate change impacts but generally improve the sustainability Karachi for numerous reasons needs profile of their cities. Karachi, one to get its house in order. The global of the fastest growing mega cities in focus on climate change and the the world, can definitely make availability of related substantial fi- progress in this regard.

21 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

his Section discusses the vari- Flood preparedness of Karachi City residing in either ous likely consequences of As stated earlier, while average pre- informal/squatter settlements or Tpossible climate change sce- cipitation levels have not signifi- in low lying localities is already lo- narios placed within the context of cantly changed over the years in cated in areas of potential flood the key vulnerabilities and climate Karachi and are projected also to risk. change adaptation challenges faced keep fairly stable in the long run, in Karachi City. While an exhaustive however, climate variability is al- • Flood defences and and detailed analysis of all aspects ways possible and Karachi has a drainage systems – Other of the issues relevant to the discus- context to flooding. However, first, than the 12 mile long Malir River sion was beyond the scope of the let us consider Karachi’s status in Embankment no other flood de- present Study some important terms of preparedness for a possible fence mechanism exists. The themes are contextualized in brief urban flooding event. There can be drainage network is not designed within a climate change adaptation three possible ways to prevent or to cater for appropriate rainfall framework and structure that can reduce the impact of flooding: intensity and probability and is be constructed upon and further re- also faced with issues of block- fined for facilitating the develop- • Spatial planning – This in- ages and encroachments. The ment of a comprehensive volves avoiding the creation of City government has responsibil- strategy.Effort has been made to flood-vulnerable land uses in high ity for maintaining most of the standardize the format for discus- flood-risk areas and identifying drainage networks and flood de- sion and analysis for each possible where current developments and fences, however they have no climate change scenario for assess- settlements need to relocated control over preventing abuses of ing consequences and highlighting while being possibly replaced by the system that reduce working the critical challenges that get iden- less flood-sensitive land uses. We efficiency such as connection of tified. find that a significant population sewage lines into drainage net- Fig. 13 FlooDINg Flooding- Extreme Events 800 450000 Within the context of flooding, the 400000 following focus areas are being con- 700 Rainfall 350000 sidered: 600 Runoff 300000 500 • Vulnerable 250000 400 communities(Slums/low lying lo- 200000 300 calities/hill settlements) (mm) rainfall 150000 • Properties and assets at risk 200

100000 cubic metre) runoff (000 • Emergency response capacity 100 50000 (health care/emergency medi- 0 0 cine/fire services etc.) 1930 1944 1956195919611967 1970 1977 1994 2007 • Natural defences – green spaces yEAr (Source: Surface Water Drainage and Flooding in Karachi City , S. Akhtar and M.R Dhanani, 2012, Department of Geography, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan

22 works, encroachments and water Basins garbage dumping. • The Malir River basin is the largest • The Budnai basin is drained by • Flood storage areas – This basin and source of surface runoff Budnai Nadi and number of small involves designing some areas to and sediments load. The Malir but powerful streams originating deliberately flood (such as park- River forms as a result of the con- from the ridges of Orangi hills and land or sports fields) so that fluence of two main rivers the Jhill hills in Mochko and around other more vulnerable land uses Mol River and the Khadeji River. Sona pass. The total length of The catchment area of the Mol Budnai stream is about 46 km and can be spared flooding.At pres- River is about 620 square km and its catchment area is about 95 ent, this option is not utilized in Khadeji River is 580 square km square km Karachi City while available green spaces are vanishing fast mostly • The Lyari River originates from the • The coastal areas of Bin Qasim, due to encroachments and land hilly ranges of Manghopir anti- Korangi and Jhill hills are drained use conversions through land clines from the north of the city by many hill torrents and small grabs. and south of the Hub dam where streams which are very active dur- its height is about 190 meters. Its ing rainy days Sources of flooding catchment area is smaller than Karachi is prone to flooding from the Malir River because of its three possible sources (another shorter length and smaller num- possible source – Tidal Flooding will ber of tributaries. Its total length get assessed in the discussion on is about180 km while its catch- sea level rise): ment area is about 578 square km

• Fluvial flooding – from Lyari/Malir Source:Surface Water Drainage and Flooding in Karachi City, S. Akhtar and M.R Dhanani, 2012, rivers and their tributaries (Malir Department of Geography, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan – Chakora Nullah, Thado dislocated. Houses were destroyed Other than the Malir and Lyari Dam/Lyari – Orangi, Gujjar) and roads were damaged. The total rivers, its tributaries and lined nul- • Surface water flooding - from loss was estimated at about 5 billion lahs(drains) serve as an important heavy rainfall overcoming the rupees (Karachi Development Au- component of the drainage net- drainage system thority/KDA, 1981). work. They are severely stressed. • Sewer flooding - from the over- One, they are not designed to cater flowing of sewers The Malir River basin and the Lyari for appropriate rainfall intensity and River basin are the two main basins probability and two they are work- Drainage basins which contribute for about 80 per- ing at reduced efficiencies due to Karachi has a context to flooding cent of the surface runoff. While blockages and encroachments.The and has experienced severe floods they are perennial streams and Karachi Strategic Development Plan which have occurred periodically. In fresh water flow is dependent solely 2020 identified the following rea- 1977, severe floods occurred in the on rains and normally they serve as sons for the massive inner city flood plains of the Malir and Lyari carriers of the city sewage, never- flooding experienced in 2006; rivers resulting in 267 deaths with theless there is a history to flooding more than 30,000 being made events and the threats are real and • Due to irregular and illegal land homeless and 100,000 temporarily cannot be totally ignored . utilization practices in the past,

23 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

most of the natural drainage, nul- Fig. 14 lahs and low lying areas which Natural Drainage (Basins) in karachi were left as open areas were con- verted into developed lands notwithstanding the require- ments of providing alternate and man-made disposal channels and thus disturbing the natural flow conditions and consequently re- sulting in uncontrolled storm drainage pattern especially dur- ing a high intensity storm/rainfall • A substantial percentage of solid waste is regularly disposed in the Arabian sea open storm drainage channels es- Road kArAChI River pecially from adjoining localities Lmit of the City NAturAl DrAINAgE 0km. 5km. which obviously results in com- plete choking or partially inter- (Source: Surface Water Drainage and Flooding in Karachi City , S. Akhtar and M.R Dhanani, 2012, Department of Geography, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan) rupted flow conditions in the event of storm Fig. 15 Assessing risks karachi Drainage Network The consequence of a flood is deter- mined by who and what is exposed to a flood and their vulnerability to it.For assessing the current flood risk, the first requirement is to look at the probability of a flood occur- ring, the consequence of a flood and the associated risk and vulnerability of the people and assets that may be affected. The flood probability is usually expressed as a return period, or as an annual percentage that may be altered as climate change may increase the frequency and in- tensity of extreme weather, so that what is a 1 in 150 year event today may be a 1 in 100 year event in the future and with a possible greater (Source: KSDP 2020) intensity.

24 Flooding - possible Impacts more vulnerable (including hospi- curred on June 30th, (in only 7 tals, industries, housing, schools); hours, 9.4 inches of rainfall with • Loss of life and personal injury less vulnerable (including shops, of- maximum intensity of 2.6 inches per (especially vulnerable commu- fices, restaurants, waste and water hour during a period of 110 minutes nities slums/hill settlementsand treatment sites). was recorded). The city was cut off low lying inner city neighbor- hoods) through railroad and air from the • Direct damage to property, in- However, the people and assets at rest of the country. Roads were in- frastructure and utilities risk can only be identified with undated. Due to the lack of flood • Contamination and disease some degree of accuracy if the protected embankments and pres- from flood and sewer water probability is worked out and linked ence of encroached settlement in • Social unrest with the establishment of a Flood the bed many houses were washed • Possible relocation and reset- Risk Zone. Vulnerability factors can out. The Pakistan Air Base (Drigh tlement of communities then be combined to produce an Road) and P.N.S Mehran were also index of flood vulnerability which flooded. A flood wave hit the Ko- can then be plotted using census rangi Industrial Area particularly Exposure and vulnerability data to map vulnerability. National Oil Refinery and Korangi The exposure and vulnerability of Thermal Power station.13 people to flooding are determined In the case of Karachi City, the only by factors that include: such working was done by WAPDA In addition to the possibility of flu- in the Feasibility Report on Malir vial flooding is the concern about • exposure – for example, living in River Basin, (1990). It was found surface water flooding impacts ex- low lying localities/along (and that the highest peak discharge in acerbated due to extensive block- on!!) river beds – in the flood the Malir River caused the floods of ages and encroachments in and plain 1944. Its recurrence interval was along the drainage channels. This is • vulnerability - for example, age worked out as about 81 years while not a new concern. One identified (the very young and old), health, its chance of occurrence being cause of the 1977 floods was the ex- disability, living alone or not hav- about 1 percent each year. How- istence of encroachments and ing a support network, low in- ever, while surface runoff calcula- squatter settlements in the bed and come and inadequate housing tions were done but a flood plain along the banks of the Malir River. could not be identified that could Portion of Mahmoodabad, whole Land uses/assets also vary in their have served as a viable flood risk Manzoor Colony, Rehman Colony, vulnerability to flooding. They can zone for the Malir river basin settle- Kashmir Colony, Liaquat Ashraf be classified into highly vulnerable ments. The Malir River in Karachi Colony, Azam Basti etc. exist on the to flooding (including police, ambu- passes through thickly populated bed of the Malir river. As a result lance and fire stations, emergency residential and industrial areas. The the width of the river at Qayum- command centers, power stations, worst flooding was in 1977 in terms abad had reduced to 550 feet in- water supply facilities and hous- of its magnitude of loss of life and stead of its original width of 5000 ing/property in low lying localities); damages, when abnormal rains oc- feet.14

13 Surface Water Drainage and Flooding in Karachi City , S. Akhtar and M.R Dhanani, 2012, Department of Geography, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan 14 Surface Water Drainage and Flooding in Karachi City , S. Akhtar and M.R Dhanani, 2012, Department of Geography, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan

25 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

Sewers overflow normally during Fig. 16 flooding events mainly because of Drainage Network: Blocked and Chocked capacity constraints and also as they Flooding of Clifton and City Rain water drains and the are deliberately opened to act as outfalls - Victims of land grab r E F E r E N C E S drainage options to flush rain water. Land reclamation & Plotting Sea Break Waters Flood protection It was as a response to the floods of 1977 that the first and only flood protection project – the Malir River Embankment - was completed by the Sindh (provincial) Government with the help of Federal Govern- ment in 1984 when a 12 miles long

flood embankment was built on (Source: Orangi Pilot Project) both sides of the Malir River start- ing from the bridge of the National years is 409,000 cusecs and matters probability of flooding, it is difficult Highway to the mouth of the river such as climate change and possible to establish a viable flood risk zone at Gizri creek. While after the con- increasing of the intensity and re- for Karachi City. However, there can struction of the embankments the duction in the return period were be no denying the fact that signifi- adjoining areas have so far been not factored at that time. cant numbers of human settle- protected from flood related dam- ments, and those too comprising of age, however, the height of the em- At risk – people and assets vulnerable communities reside in a bankment was based upon the In the absence of identified flood possible flood risk zone in addition surface runoff of 240,000 cusecs for plains for either the Malir, or Lyari to nationally important institutional which return period is 50 years river basins and detailed and up- assets. while the maximum runoff in 100 dated working on assessing the

Settlements along embankments Residing alongside blocked drains Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE

26 Fig. 17 people - An idea of the scale of the vulnerability and risk can be Extent of Flood Defences – malir river Embankment made by considering three possible risk zones and communities. They can be categorized as follows:

• Katchi abadis - The katchi abadis (urban squatter settle- ments) that represent the most recognizable face of informal set- tlements in Karachi have existed from the time of the creation of Pakistan with instances of illegal sub-division of land documented as far back as the 1950’s. Presently, about 61% of the pop- ulation is housed in such settle- ments and of these a high (Source : Surface Water Drainage and Flooding in Karachi City , S. Akhtar and M.R Dhanani, 2012, De- proportion occupies undesirable partment of Geography, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan) real estate such as along the ing options for the financially and considered in context of flooding Malir/Lyari river beds .This can socially marginalized and vulnera- can be expressed in terms of mostly be attributed to massive ble communities. The process ini- most critically their location (ex- population influxes, ever escalat- tiated quite some time back and posure) and then possible lack of ing land prices and the incapacity has since then taken the form of land tenure - not all katchi of the relevant government au- a very concrete and visible settle- abadies are regularized - lack of thorities to provide viable hous- ment pattern. Their risk when formal access to civic services

Settlements along nullahs Settlements in a high flood risk zone Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE

27 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

such as water, inappropriate Fig. 18 housing structures, absence of fi- A high risk Zone and Communities (madiha Salam, Shehri-CBE) nancial cover to reclaim structural such as housing damages, loss of livelihoods and health costs (vul- nerability).

• Low lying localities - The city areas which were developed in between1726 to 1947 are known as the old city. These areas house much of the whole- sale business and commercial ac- tivities. In addition, the commercial business district (CBD) is also located here. These Identified low lying localities in karachi localities are densely populated and congested and are low lying, Bunder Road and Lyari become Katachi abadis of Mehmoodabad bounded by the Lyari River and heavily inundated during the and Manzoor Colony located on Karachi harbor. Similarly, other rainy spells mainly due to inade- the Malir river bank are also low lying localities further inland quate storm water drainage sys- worst affected by excessive flood- (e.g. along drainage channels) - a tem. Extensive flooding occurs in ing and stagnant water.15 mix of residential and commercial parts of the Gulshan-e-Iqbal land uses are also at possible risk. along the University Road, Soci- • Hill settlements - During the In the inner city, the low-lying eties Union area along Shahrah- past decade or so, extensive set- areas of Saddar, Chundrigar Road, e-Faisal and Tipu Sultan Road. tlements have taken place either

The downtown – a low lying area Nehre-Khayam drainage channel along Karachi Grammar School- Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE

15 Karachi Strategic Development Plan 2020

28 Fig. 19 vention and protection measures. The Sindh Industrial Trading Estate Flood Zones in karachi (S.I.T.E), the F.B Area Industrial Zone, the North Karachi Industrial Zone and the Landhi/Korangi Industrial Trading Estates (L.I.T.E/K.I.T.E) are located right along the Lyari and Malir Rivers respectively.K.I.T.E got extensively flooded in the 1977 floods and has since been protected by the Malir River Embankment. If we consider essential civic serv- Arabian sea ices than it is indicated that a fairly Road extensive water supply and sewer- k A r A C h I River Limit of the City age system related infrastructure FlooD ZoNES 0km. 5km. Low Lying Zone Hill Torrent Zone such as pumping stations is located (Source : Surface Water Drainage and Flooding in Karachi City , S. Akhtar and M.R Dhanani, 2012, De- along mostly the Lyari River in partment of Geography, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan) towns that border on the river. An on the hills dotting the Karachi property and assets - It is example is that of Lyari town. landscape or on the foothills – again difficult to establish an accu- mostly inhabited by the more re- rate list of properties and assets Emergency response cent immigrants to the city. As that may get impacted and to what There is limited if any quality re- such a significant new flood risk extent. However, if we just consider search analyzing the status of emer- zone has been created that can the industrial assets that are quite gency response systems such as be critically endangered due to possibly located in a likely flood risk emergency medicine, healthcare, hill torrents and possible land- zone than we need to place a high fire services etc. For the objectives slides. value on initiating urgent flood pre- of this Study,to assess the emer-

Dangerous slope in a hill settlement Living in a hill torrent zone Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE

29 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

Fig. 20 Ahmed Jawad, Saeed Minhas, Asma Ansari, Afrah Siddiqui, Sana Industries along the lyari and malir rivers Mehtab)assessing the efficacy and Legend preparedness of the pre-hospital Major Corridors to the Outside and hospital emergency medical Major Corridors in Karachi systems and post graduate trainees CBD Area in the city (two prime emergency Industrial Area care hospitals) to deal with a mas- sive terrorist (not climate change!) strike has been sourced to give some idea on this important aspect of preparing for climate change sce- narios.

In this research a cross-sectional survey of postgraduate trainees was (Source: Special Assistance For Project Formation (Saprof) For Karachi Circular Railway Project In The Islamic Republic Of Pakistan ,2009,Jica conducted at Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Center and Civil Hospital Karachi from 21st July 2007 to 24th Fig. 21 July 2007, to evaluate the prepared- water Supply Infrastructure Along lyari river ness and self identified deficiencies of doctors involved in massive lyArI towN wAtEr & SEwErAgE NEtwork trauma casualty management. Out of the 90 respondents questioned regarding a self assessment of their training, only 3 (3.3%) of them were confident about their management of bomb blast victims. Eighty-seven (96.6%) of the respondents felt they required some further training (44.4%) or comprehensive training (52.2%). No simulated drills or courses had been conducted for dis- aster management in the emer- gency department of the surveyed hospitals. Most of the ambulance drivers had no paramedic training. (Source: KW&SB) Ambulances are equipped with a gency healthcare response,a re- emergency medical response sys- stretcher and an oxygen cylinder search paper(Pakistan: The new tar- tems adequately prepared? – 2009- only. No resuscitation measures get of terrorism. Are Karachi’s Muhammad Ahmed Siddiqui, were found available in the ambu-

30 lances.An overwhelming 96% of the • Non-provision of training on in- compared to impervious concrete doctors felt they were deficient in ternational standard built up spaces. Green spaces or the their training and management of • In availability of fire training insti- vegetation cover in Karachi is al- such scenarios.Despite availability tute/school ready limited. According to the find- of communication between ambu- • Non implementation of safety ings of a recent study funded by the lances of the same organization, no- rules Asian Development Bank (ADB) – communication links are available • Acute shortage of water for fire- Comprehensive Plan for Forestation, between the ambulance services fighting purpose Aesthetic Plantation and Landscap- and intended hospitals. • Shortage of fire fighting staff ing for Karachi, 2008 –total vegeta- • Shortage of fire station tion cover in Karachi as estimated With regards fire services, an evalu- • Absence of coordination and co- through satellite imageries is 62,643 ation made recently by Muhammad operation of different agencies on acres which works out as 7% of the Masood Alam, Executive District Of- scene of incident total land area of 907,001 acres. A ficer, Municipal Services Group of • Shortage of special fire fighting greater cause for alarm is however, Offices, City District Government units snorkel, hazmat rescue units the rate at which these already min- Karachi in the context of Vulnerabili- and ambulances imal green spaces are disappearing. ties and Hazards of Karachi and Preparation of District Disaster Plan Vanishing green spaces – In another research work under- 2011, is self explanatory: vanishing defences taken recently - Ecological distur- Green spaces act as basins where bances due to high cutback in the • No Fire Hydrant System through- rain water can infiltrate and thus re- green infrastructure of Karachi: out the city is available duce the potential flood threat as Analyses of public perception about associated health problems – 2010- Salman Qureshi a,b,_, Syed Jamil Hasan Kazmi b, J¨ urgen H. Breuste, 2010- an effort was made to assess whether the effect of the reduction of Karachi’s green infrastructure has had an impact on human health conditions in the city. The initial phase of the study consisted of ex- amining the extent to which the- green infrastructure had changed due to the combined effects of de- velopment and the monsoon using remote sensing and GPS survey techniques.This involved a time se- ries analysis of the pattern of green infrastructure conducted using time series sets of LULC data covering the Emergency response – A critically inadequate capacity Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE

31 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

gutter Baghicha period 1986–2003 and using Land- satThematic Mapper (TM) and En- utter Baghicha (GB) is a 120- Numerous cases have been fought hanced Thematic Mapper Gyear old amenity sewage farm in the Supreme Court (SC) and Sindh (ETM+)imagery. Through this and sewage treatment plant on the High Court (SHC) over the past 18 process, a wide-ranging spectrum of Manghopir Road in District West. It years, until finally Suit 1484/2008 landscape patches was identified was established in the late 19th cen- (filed by Ardeshir Cowasjee, Abdul and examined in relation to the tury on 1,216 acres for the treat- Sattar Edhi, Shehri and area resi- overall reduction in green infra- ment of sewage from the newly dents, including Nisar Baloch of Gut- structure, involving the loss of, or established town of Karachi, where ter Baghicha Bachao Tehreek reductions in, specific green areas. vegetables, cereals and other crops (GBBT)against City District Govern- In the absence of the most recent and trees/flowers were grown with ment Karachi (CDGK), KMC-OCHS, satellite images, an extensive GPS- the effluent etc), which requires recording of evi- based field mapping exercise was dence, is pending in the SHC. undertaken(Fig 22). The findings After the emergence of Pakistan in verify the reduction of urban green, 1947, over 55% of the land was en- Two local activists, Nisar Baloch and in both highly urbanized as well as- croached upon for non-amenity use Nadir Baloch, members of the Gut- (katchi abadis, industries, work- ter Baghicha Bachao Tehreek, have less-urbanized areas. The rate of de- shops, etc) over the next five been shot and killed in November terioration of green cover is decades. In 1957, two hundred acres 2009 for their efforts to save the particularly dramatic after 2000 was resumed by the government for park. when extensive development activi- inclusion in the adjacent Sindh In- ties started in the transportation dustrial Trading Estates scheme. In sector and can be seen in the time 1982/83, a number of katchi abadis series (1986–2003). on GB land were ‘regularized’. In North-Eastern area of Karachi for Since 1993, local residents and envi- example, in the year 2000, the built ronmental NGOs have been trying to structures of North-Eastern areas save what is left (about 430 acres) of (viz. Gulistan-e-Jauhar) expanded the original 1,216 acres of GB The from 19.4% to 47.4% in 1990 but main controversy for many years green areas remain virtually un- was the unlawful allotment of 200 changed. A marked difference in the acres to the KMC Officers’ Coopera- vacant/barren areas can be ob- tive Housing Society (KMC-OCHS), served where the barren land in and additional plots proposed to be 1990 was about 30%, which fell to converted to other such non- only 2.7% in 2000. These areas amenity uses. formed the focus for much of the new development.16

16 Ecological disturbances due to high cutback in the green infrastructure ofKarachi: Analyses of public perception about associated health problems – 2010- Salman Qureshi a,b,_, Syed Jamil Hasan Kazmi b, J¨ urgen H. Breuste aDepartment of Geography and Geology, University of Salzburg, Hellbrunnerstrasse 34, Salzburg 5020, Austriab Department of Geography, University of Karachi, University Road, Karachi 75270, Pakistan

32 Fig. 22 With relation to farming land an in- teresting though worrying trend is Vanishing green Spaces indicated. The cultivated area what was! what is! dropped from 61% in 1960 to only 19% in the year 2000. There is a sharp fall after the 1990’s with per- centage cultivated area falling to only 19% in 2000s mainly owing to the haphazard expansion of the city, development of new residential schemes and un-checked sand/gravel mining.However, while since 1990, there is indicated an in- crease in land purchased for agricul- tural purposes it is not reflected in any increase in the cultivated area! 1986 2003 Source: Ecological disturbances due to high cutback in the green infrastructure of Karachi: Analyses of public perception about associated health problems, 2010 End note Salman Qureshi a,b,, Syed Jamil Hasan Kazmi b, J¨ urgen H. Breuste a Karachi has had to face urban flood- ing events in the past and it can happen again. It is however difficult Fig. 23 to work out a probability and re- Encroaching gutter Baghicha lated intensity with any degree of 50 acres grabbed by accuracy owing to serious gaps in mafia (June 2009) data and associated research both S.I.t.E Illegal Ismailia in terms of anticipated precipitation Society Sewage treatment plant levels and the translation of addi- tional rainfall into an urban flooding event. The risks while they cannot proposed be accurately quantified in terms of City park exposed and vulnerable people and assets there is sufficient indications

Illegal mst that risks can be quite substantial. Sofia & others The potential people and communi- Illegal kmC-oChS mangopir road ties likely to be in the flood hazard Illegal Construction Started By kmC zone are also fitting the profile of Society members (August 2009) being highly vulnerable. The assets at risk figure significantly not only at a local but national level in terms of Source: Shehri-CBE

33 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

Critical Challenges Fig. 24 • A Flood Risk Zone (E.g. ‘Flood Farmlands Also Vanishing Plain’ of Lyari/Malir Rivers) 80 not identified 70

• Significant settlements of 60 ‘vulnerable communities‘ in potential high flood risk zones 50 • Drainage networks neither 40 designed to cater for appro- priate rainfall intensity and 30 probability and also faced 20 with blockages/encroach- ments 10 0 • No effective policy/regulation 1960 1972 1980 1990 2000 to prevent settlements in the (Source: Department of Geography, University of Karachi) ‘river beds’, ‘hills’ and en- croachments of drainage channels and land use changes impacting adversely Fig. 25 on the flood prevention and what is happening in the Agricultural lands! management capacity total Agricultural land (Acres) • Green cover in the city that 180000 could facilitate improved 160000 drainage (parks/play grounds, farming land) shrinking 140000 120000 • Critical gaps and shortcom- 100000 ings in the ‘emergency re- 80000 sponse’ systems – 60000 health/emergency/trauma fa- 40000 cilities, fire services, law and 20000 order services (E.g. ‘safe shel- 0 ters’) etc. – ‘evacuation plans’ 1960 1972 1980 1990 2000 and required procedures and (Source: Department of Geography, University of Karachi) facilities

their contribution to the national managing!) the city land and institu- economy and growth. Issues related tions further complicate and mag- with the way we are managing (mis- nify an already existing risk.

34 Fig. 26 The focus has been to take either a karachi City - Cascading Consequences for ‘Flooding’ fire-fighting approach with all the associated inadequacies in response mechanisms in tact or to take short term ad-hoc measures with no sus- tainability attached to them. Cli- mate change adaptation is all about Loss of life and personal injury(es- being prepared. From reducing the Declining public pecially vulnerable health Communities slums/ risk of damage to being better hill settlements/ Public rural communities equipped to meet the possible con- and low lying sequences is what adaptive capacity discontent and inner city possible Overflow of is all about. For that to happen, a neighborhoods) Lyari/Malir conflict rivers and nullahs paradigm shift in planning priorities Direct damage is required. The need is to move ur- Setback to local to property, Blockage of storm FlooDINg economy infrastructure water drains/nul- gently on multiple fronts to address and utilities lahs this issue that may include an inten- Financial stress- infrastructure Contamination Sewer overflows sified focus on research and analysis and disease from repair and health flood and sewer and implementation of relevant pol- costs water icy frameworks for facilitating re- Loss of housing and Social unrest Possible quired planning and project based Live LaHood’s relocation and resettlement of interventions. communities

The scope of the Study could not allow detailed focus into a number of cross-cutting themes such as pos- sible impact and consequences for the local economy, social and larger scale governance aspects etc. How- Drought Drought – possible Impacts ever they are also of fundamental • Reducing river flows Drought is caused by lack of suffi- importance as a climate change sce- • Reducing ground water replen- cient rainfall. Droughts can either be nario has what can be called as a ishment (recharge) short and sharp, or prolonged.Judi- cascading effect with one sector of • Increasing evaporation cious management of water re- the urban scene linking with the • Increasing loss from broken other to create a complicated col- sources, in terms of meeting the water mains due to increasing lage of short and long term dam- supply and demand gap can greatly subsidence ages and setbacks to the growth reduce the possible adverse impacts • Increasing demand for water process of the city. of a drought upon us and on the en- from people and wildlife vironment. Within the context of • Adverse impacts on people and drought, the following focus areas livelihoods dependent on farm- are being considered: ing

35 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

• Public water supply (the Hub water Supply Sources River Source) • Urban farming and agriculture he Indus river, the main source flow from the dam will be diverted (Rural Karachi) Tof water for Karachi, is severely to the Karachi Water Supply Canal • Bio-diversity constrained by dry season demand, (Sindh) while 36.7% to the Lasbela but has abundant wet season dis- Canal (Balochistan) water supply charges. Urban and industrial water About 90 % of population in Karachi for Karachi is taken from the Kotri Dumlottee Well Field built by the use the water supplied by the sole Barrage and discharged through the British in the latter half of the 19th public water service provider – the KalriBaghar Feeder Upper (KB century located on the banks of Karachi Water & Sewerage Board – Feeder Upper) to KinjharLake.Kotri Malir River in the Dumlottee area (KW&SB) through pipelines or by Barrage is the lowest barrage on the about 30 km to the northeast of the River Indus.Kinjhar Lake is a natural city. A number of large diameter tankers and the remaining 10% of reservoir with a catchment area of shallow wells constructed in the population may depend mainly on 910 km2 Malir River alluvium provided about groundwater.17 8 mgd of water to Karachi through a The Hub Dam is a multi-purpose gravity conduit. For many years A system already in stress dam (municipal, industrial and irri- since then, the well field remained There is intermittent supply of gation purposes) constructed on the as the main source of supply for water at low pressure through ra- Hub River approximately 50 km to Karachi with supply being aug- tioning and in most parts of the city the north-west of Karachi City. The mented in a phased manner. How- water is supplied once or twice a catchment area of the dam extends ever, the supply from this system week, each time for the duration of across two provinces namely Sindh has gradually decreased over time several hours. The percentage of and Balochistan covering a total to 4 mgd by 1985, and to 1.5 mgd in non-revenue-water (NRW) is high area of 3,410 sq miles (8,730 km2). 2002 and afterwards. At present, owing to leakages (decaying infra- There has been an agreement be- this system can produce merely 1.4 structure), theft and an unsatisfac- tween the two provinces that, at the mgd of water during only a few tory status of revenue collection. In Regulator located at the end of the months after the rainy season. most parts of the city, residents are Hub Main Canal, 63.3% of the total obliged to spend money on con- Source: The Study on Water Supply and Sewerage System in Karachi, the Japan International Coop- structing underground water eration Agency (JICA), 2008 tanks,suction/booster pumps, roof- top storage tanks, and water filter- ment of water-borne diseases (ty- According to the census in 1998, its ing systems. As such, while the basic phoid, cholera, and hepatitis are population was 9.8 million. Its cur- cost of piped water in Karachi may common) and the loss of income rent population is informally esti- be cheap, the associated indirect due to sick time. mated in the range of 18 million. In costs are unreasonably high. future, it could be the second Rising water demand largest city of the world(Butler, The expense of not having an ade- The population of Karachi was esti- 2005), as it is expecting to accom- quate supply of potable water is mated to be 4.4 million at the time modate27.5 million people in 2020 compounded by the inevitable med- of independence in 1947 but it has (CDGK-MPGO, 2007). ical bills resulting from the treat- undergone numerous expansions.

17 The Study on Water Supply and Sewerage System in Karachi, the Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA), 2008

36 With the phenomenal increase in Fig. 27 population will develop an ever karachi water Demand greater demand for water from an already stressed water utility. The 1,200 Study on Water Supply and Sewer- age System in Karachi prepared by 1,000 the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in the year 2008 esti- 800 mates that the water demand would increase to 1,182 mgd by the 600 year 2025.

At risk – the hub river/dam 400 service area Demend (mgd) water If we consider the water supply 200 sources for Karachi City in the con- text of a possible drought scenario 0 than the Hub river/dam source is 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 most relevant. Completed in 1981, year the dam was first filled up in 1984. Source: The Study on Water Supply and Sewerage System in Karachi prepared by the Japan Interna- It was again filled up in 1989, 1992, tional Cooperation Agency (JICA), 2008 1994, 1995 and 2003. The last time the dam was filled up was August Fig. 28 2007. During the 8 years from 1995 public water Supply to 2003, the dam was never filled (the hub river Source – (100 mgD) up (reduced rainfall – drought).As a Service Area/populAtIoN SErVED – 5 million result, the supply from the dam re- 1. Lyari Town 13. Liaquatabad Town duced to almost zero during the 2. Saddar Town 14. North Nazimabad 3. Jamshed Town Town four years from July 1999 till June 4. gadap town 15. Gulberg Town 2003.18 Five major localities in 5. Site town 16 New Karachi Town 6. keman town 17. orangi town Karachi inhabited by about 5 million 7. Shah Faisal Town 18. Baldia town residents are dependent on the Hub 8. Korangi Town 19. A. Karachi Contonment 9. Landhi Town 20. B. Clifton Contonment river source. Following the drought 10. Bin Qasim Town 21. C. Korangi Creek Con- period (199-2003) when immense 11. Malir Town tonment 12. Gulshan Town 22. D. Faisal Contonment problems were faced in meeting the 23. E. Malir Contonment water demands of the affected pop- 24. F. Manora Contonment ulation, the KW&SB initiated a proj- ect linking the Indus river supply with the pumping station at Mang- hopir (from where water sourced

18 The Study on Water Supply and Sewerage System in Karachi prepared by the Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA), 2008

37 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

from the Hub dam is supplied to the Fig. 29 city) so that in case of water scarcity kwSB Financial Crisis at the Hub source, the water supply from the Indus source can be di- 12 10.44 verted.However, as even the Indus 10 source is under stress and not meet- 8.08 ing the existing demand, this meas- 8 ure cannot be a very viable solution 5.54 in the long run when demand is ex- 6 pected to increase substantially. 4 2.93 2.85 2.69 2.54 The socio-economic profile of a ma- 2.03 2.36 jority of the residents of the service 2 2.45 0.82 0.82 2.41 2.27 2.65 area would also place them in a vul- Billion) (Rs. Amount 0 nerability context. 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 Fiscal year kw&SB – utility in stress Current Accumulated Annual revenue As discussed, Karachi already faces a Deficit Deficit (Billed) high supply demand gap and popu- Source: The Study on Water Supply and Sewerage System in Karachi prepared by the Japan Interna- lation pressures leading to in- tional Cooperation Agency (JICA), 2008 creased demand are likely. Rainfall is already limited and the impacts of Fig. 30 a likely drought period could be se- water Supply at a glance vere. However the capacity of the service provider to meet the possi- populAtIoN 18 mIllIoN ble consequences may be a greater mAxImum wAtEr DEmAND (@ 54 gpcd) 972 mgD cause of concern. If one only looks at its financial status than the situa- mINImum DEmAND (@ 30 - 54 gpcd) [Av: 42 gpcd] 756 mgD tion is quite grim. Examination of AVAIlABlE Supply 680 mgD the financial statements of KW&SB for recent years shows an extremely v INDuS SourCE (KINGER LAKE SURFACE WATER) worrying trend as regards its short - greater karachi 280 mgd term financial positions. Over recent - gharo 28 mgd - k-II 100 mgd years, KW&SB has continuously - Additional 40 mgd 578 mgD been operating in deficit. The an- - k-III 100 mgd nual deficit ranges from Rs.2,000 to - Steel mill 22 mgd 2,700 million (US$33.3 to 45.0 mil- - pQA 08 mgd v huB DAm (SurFACE wAtEr) lion). At the end of the fiscal year v DumlottEE wEllS (grouND wAtEr) 2004/05, the accumulated deficit 100 mgD totaled to Rs. 10,435 million 2 mgD wAtEr loSSES (35%) total : 680 mgD (US$173.9 million). These deficits have eventually been subsidized by (Source: KW&SB)

38 federal and provincial govern- farming is sub-surface water. The There is limited if any focus on har- ments.19 To detail the other serious resource base is threatened from vesting already limited water re- challenges being faced by the two serious resource management sources or initiating measures to KW&SB in terms of technical, man- challenges. One, the rapid depletion promote water conservation or fa- agement constraints and a larger of the available water due to re- cilitate recharge of the aquifers. enveloping crisis of institutional source mismanagement that may Malir River has been providing governance would require a sepa- include over-abstraction, water in- some of the important construction rate study in itself. tensive farming among other factors material like gravel and sand for a is mostly responsible for rapid low- long time. This gravel and sand has At risk – rural economy and livelihoods Historically and also supported by the nature of the physical land- scape, resource availability and to- pography, the rural hinterland of Karachi has been distinguished by its agriculture and grazing based land use and associated economy and culture. The Karachi Develop- ment Plan 1974-85 had stated that Karachi can respond to the chal- Farming – Still providing livelihoods to a Exposed and vulnerable lenge of rapid urbanization, building large community Farhan Anwar, Shehri-CBE Farhan Anwar, Shehri-CBE on the achievements but rejecting the destructive practices of the past. ering of the ground water table and been excavated since 1940s, how- The opportunities are there. The two, destruction of the aquifer ever, the rate of excavation and the metropolis lies at the edge of a hin- mainly due to uncontrolled and un- geographical spread of the activity terland that makes it possible to cre- regulated sand mining and extrac- has scaled up considerably in the ate an efficient agro-urban complex, tion to sustain the construction last decade or so. using urban wastes to support the activities within the city. production of much of the food sup- An average sand mining truck ap- ply needed by the urban population. proximately carries 318 cubic feet of gravel. At an average about 1000 While the agro-urban economy and such sorties are undertaken in a day. associated livelihoods of Karachi are It is indicated that most of the river threatened due to a variety of fac- belt has now been excavated up to tors that are beyond the scope of a depth of 20 feet. In some places this Study, a focus would be given to the removal has reached to a dan- state of the water resources critical gerous level mark of 30 feet.20 Possi- to sustaining the sector economy. The ever descending water table ble salt water intrusion from the sea Source of water for irrigation and Department of Geography, University of Karachi may also become an issue where

19 The Study on Water Supply and Sewerage System in Karachi prepared by the Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA), 2008 20 Department of Geography, University of Karachi, 2007

39 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

coastal groundwater levels drop due Karachi,prepared by the Japan Inter- water to sustain wild and domestic to over abstraction, reduced national Cooperation Agency (JICA), animals, irrigation and human use in recharge and sea level rise. 2008 went further by recommend- the Khirthar National Park. In the ing that more stringent controls year 2000, a Baseline Environmental should be put in place on the con- Study of the Khirthar National Park struction of new wells in order to was conducted by a team of scien- maintain the current groundwater tists and academics from the Uni- balance in the region. versity of Melbourne, Australia. As part of the Study,Ground Water Bio-diversity Modeling was also done that indi- To provide a sample and a glimpse cated a precarious water balance of the possible impacts of drought with the water resources already on bio-diversity already under water under severe stress. It was found Over abstraction – damaging the aquifers Department of Geography, University of Karachi stress, a profile is provided of the that the steep gradients and short Khirthar National Park – the largest length of streams in the mountains The need to preserve and enhance national park in Pakistan containing will result in a very short time of to the extent possible the existing many threatened and protected concentration for runoff, and conse- ground water resources and protect flora and fauna specie including the quently, there will be only a short it from unsustainable uses is urgent. Sindh urial or wild sheep (gad) and period for infiltration through the In 2004, KW&SB conducted a study the Sindh Ibex or wild goat (sarah).21 beds of mountain streams. There- to explore the possibility of devel- Not many people are aware that fore little recharge is expected in oping groundwater sources in the part of the Khirthar National Park the mountains. region as a source of water supply constitutes 20% of the District for Karachi. The study was titled Karachi landmass! It was estimated that total con- Feasibility Study to Explore Ground- sumptive use of water by evapora- water Source in Karachi District and tion from irrigated land in the Park explored the availability of ground- was between 10,000 and 20,000 water from the basins of Malir, ML/a. This was 10-25 times greater Gadap, Lyari and Hub to supple- than the amount drawn for drinking ment the existing supplies. After ex- (around 800 ML/a), water supplies tensive surveys and analyses, this for domestic animals (around 270 study concluded that since there ML/a) or taken by wild animals was limited precipitation and mini- (around 40 ML/a). Khithar National Park – endangered wildlife mal groundwater recharge in Karachi, the sustainable yield of As a result of low average annual Ground water recharge to aquifers ground water was already in bal- precipitation, and the concentration in the Tuang Valley was estimated to ance with the existing pump dis- of rainfall in a short monsoon sea- be around 9000 ML/a, but with- charge from about 1,000 existing son, there are no permanent rivers drawal for irrigation was found to wells and it was difficult to develop in the Park. Groundwater discharg- be around 28,000 ML/a. Though fig- new wells. The Study on Water Sup- ing from springs or drawn from ures, it was stated were subject to ply and Sewerage System in wells provides the only source of errors of estimation but it was

21 Sindh –State of Environment & Development, 2004, IUCN, The World Conservation Union, Pakistan

40 Critical Challenges into smaller water resource zones, nancially viable to begin with. A po- which are defined on the basis of litical will for holistic institutional re- • It seems efforts have been water supply connectivity. Such esti- forms backed by relevant policy and shelved for now to assess the mation for us does not exist. How- administrative interventions are the ground water potential of Karachi – e.g. recharging the ever for us, a critical realization only way to address this challenge. aquifers in the Malir river basin should be that a drought scenario by setting up infiltration will not bring a crisis, it may aggra- Within the context of the rural agro- basins/check dams to facilitate vate an already existing crisis. There urban sector in Karachi, there is an rain water storage/harvesting is a need for the KW&SB to move on urgent need to protect and replen- and recharging of aquifers a number of fronts. There is an ur- ish the ground water resources gent need to reduce the loss of through relevant policy and project • A major hindrance is the ab- water through leakage management based interventions in addition to sence of a ground water use that can happen within the context looking at promoting judicious use policy in Pakistan – Karachi can of a larger initiative to rehabilitate of the water resources. This can take the lead in this regard by the decaying infrastructure and pre- happen within a larger framework formulating a ‘ground water vent theft. Water efficiency can be of protecting the threatened land use policy for Karachi! improved through introducing water use of the rural hinterland and de- metering that can lead to proper es- veloping a new vision of this land • Lack of focus on promoting timation of demand and develop- mass and related economy as a vi- conservation and recycling ment of related trends in able and sustainable source of pro- practices to reduce stress on fluctuations in uses and also identi- viding food security for Karachi and available fresh water resources fying the more water stressed areas. also acting as a barrier to the un- There is a need to promote water planned, unregulated and unsus- • Funding constraints to rehabili- conservation practices both at the tainable urban sprawl. tate decaying urban water sup- service provider and the consumer ply infrastructure level. There is huge water efficiency clearly evident that the ground potential in using reclaimed water ExtrEmE hEAt water resources of the Tuang Valley for non-potable uses. The focus EVENtS in the Park were already overdevel- presently is directed mostly on aug- oped. menting water supply (e.g. focus on Heat waves are typically defined as K-IV project to bring 100 mgd more extended periods of hotter than av- End note water for Karachi for the Indus river erage temperatures, although the The probability of a drought affect- source). Though an option in itself, precise timing and temperature dif- ing Karachi would depend upon it can only provide optimal benefits ferential varies regionally. Within how much rain falls, how long are if other factors mainly at the distri- the context of extreme heat events, periods of reduced rainfall, and how bution level that are hindering effi- the following focus areas are being sensitive the supply-demand bal- ciency in water supply and usage considered. ance for the various service areas is are tackled on an urgent basis si- to drought. Ideally, based on such multaneously, if not with a greater • Urban Heat Island Effect (natural an analysis the water service priority. However, for all this to hap- and anthropogenic factors) provider could divide its supply area pen, the water utility needs to be fi- • Increasing water usage

41 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

There is a lack of specificity in the Fig. 31 definition of an extreme heat event or heat wave due to the importance karachi City Cascading Consequences for ‘Drought’ and reduced rainfall of local acclimatization to climate, which varies geographically. Previ- ous research shows that popula- tions in different locations have varying abilities to deal with tem- perature extremes. For example, Declining public Consumers shift to more costly studies in Phoenix (US) have found health and possibly hazardous no statistically significant relation- options and prioritize use ship between mortality rates and Public Reduced urban water discontent and supply (Hub Source) high temperatures below 43°C, possible Possible water riots while in Boston (US), an increase in conflict Stressed ecosystems Increased stress (E.g. Khirthar) an the rates of mortality is observed at on Indus water green spaces Lost public Drought 32°C.22 recreational source amenities Infrastructure dam- Services age (E.g. water & Extreme heat Events - Financial stress- disturbed due to sanitation) possible Impacts infrastructure infrastructure damage • The ‘Urban Heat Island’ effect repair and health Reduced ground costs water replenishment • Increasing water usage Bio-diversity loss • Increasing energy demand for Possible migration – farming communities Adverse impacts on farming cooling – air conditioning sector and associated livelihoods • Increased ‘load shedding’ • Heat related illness and deaths • Damage to temperature re- lated infrastructure (such as electrical systems and trans- port networks) heat-retaining materials and few perature levels are expected to rise. There can be several explanations homes have central air conditioning. In Karachi, generally summers are for these variable responses. If ex- As a result, during extreme heat hot and prolonged and tempera- tremely high temperatures occur at events, ambient air temperature in- tures in excess of 300C are quite the infrequent intervals then the resi- side such homes can be dangerously norm. During the Study,no such dents may not have the proper level high. As a result of climate change, data could be located which could of preparedness to cope with sud- extreme heat events are predicted indicate deaths due to sustained den variations. Housing structures to become more frequent, intense more than average heat waves – say have a role to play as in places and longer lasting over most land in excess of 40 0C. where cold weather is more of a areas. In the case of Pakistan gener- norm,most homes are built from ally and In Karachi particularly, tem-

22 Global report on human settlements 2011,United Nations Human Settlements Programme

42 urban heat island effect Fig. 32 Urban settlements due to their spe- the Classic urban heat Island Effect profile cific land use and development pro- files can generate unique local OF OC conditions while interacting with 92 heat events. The most significant of 33 such effect in the context of climate 32 change and extreme heat events is known as the Urban Heat Island ef- 31 fect. The urban heat island de- scribes the warmth of the surfaces 85 30 and atmosphere that urban area- soften experience in comparison to the rural areas that surround them. late Afternoon temperature Compared to rural areas, cities tend Rural Commercial Urban Suburban Residential Residential to have higher air and surface tem- peratures due to the urban heat-is- Suburban Downtown Park Rural Residential Farmland land effect. the urban heat Island Effect the city’s surrounding area. At night, at an increased risk from extreme he fabric of buildings and when urban heat-island effects are heat events because of their low roads that make up the urban T strongest, temperature differences adaptive capacity.23 realm absorbssolar energy. By can reach 12°C. By increasing tem- earlyevening, the buildings an- peratures, urban heat-island effects The scale of these effects is how- droads start to radiate this stored can aggravate the heat-related neg- ever, not uniform across cities. The energy as heat,which escapes ative implications of climate change physical layout of a city, its popula- slowly, especially in narrow or and impose costly energy demands tion size and density, and structural tallstreets where it is re-absorbed and re-radiatedfrom the buildings on urban systems as they attempt features of the built environment all that line the street. Thisabsorp- to adapt to higher temperatures.Ex- influence the intensity of the urban tion and retention of heat is why treme heat events negatively im- heat island effect. In some cities, urbanareas can be warmer at pact upon human health and social the heat generated by traffic move- night than rural areasand is stability, increase energy demand ment, air conditioning systems, in- known as the ‘urban heat island and affect water supply. Heat waves dustrial emissions and other energy effect. are more likely to impact upon vul- uses builds on the heat being radi- nerable populations, including the ated from the buildings and roads, For the average developed country elderly, very young, individuals with further raising temperatures. This city of 1 million people, this phe- pre-existing health conditions and can be termed as an anthropogenic nomenon can cause air tempera- the urban poor. The urban poor in- (man-made)contribution to the tures that are 1°C to 3°C higher than developed countries are especially urban heat island effect.

23 Global report on human settlements 2011,United Nations Human Settlements Programme

43 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

karachi – a potential for in the next decade and more . Ac- ill planned development are raising urban heat island effect? cording to the KSDP 2020: some serious concerns. The provin- In Karachi it is difficult to assess if cial government of Sindh passed the the urban heat island effect is taking With mounting pressures exerted Sindh High Density Development place and if so at what strength.As by the population growth over Board Bill, 2010 in the provincial as- heat waves affect the whole of the the last two decades, two basic sembly on May 31, 2010, that was city, mapping the intensity of the trends in land use are observed. assented to by the Governor of urban heat island represents the Recently, commercial growth has Sindh on June 20, 2010 and through best available measure of determin- taken place along major arterials. a Notification issued on June 24, ing how temperatures vary across a While most residential neighbor- 2010 was made an Act of the Legis- city. Surface temperature mapping hoods have acquired one or two lature of Sindh. The Act sanctions is the best way at assess the likeli- storey structures, significant den- the Board to identify and earmark hood and intensity of the phenome- sification has taken places the high density zones in the urban non. However, available data on through construction of upper centers of the cities of the province land surface temperatures in floors and subdivisions of large and in consultation with respective Karachi is inconclusive owing to its plots. In many old and new areas, utility agencies, keeping in view the random nature and not being spe- apartment buildings, 5-6 storeys general principles of the Master cific to determining urban heat is- high, have replaced the low-den- Plan. High Density Zone is described land effect. Karachi has the sity bungalow type housing. as an area designated under the Act potential of developing a typical for construction of high rise build- temperature profile of an urban Then there are some other develop- ings in the urban centers of the heat island, where temperatures ments that given our experiences in Province. rise from the rural fringe towards the city centre.

Following are factors in urban growth in Karachi that may con- tribute or are already contributing to raising the temperature levels in the city due to human actions.

Population density There is a strong relationship be- tween density of development and intensity of the urban heat island. Karachi’s population is expected to increase to 27.5 million by 2020.24 The population density within the core of the city is on the rise and is projected to increase even further An ever expanding city Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE

24 Karachi Strategic Development Plan 2020

44 Citizens protest! Resolution was passed in a Sem- leading professionals of Karachi in sion of the physical and social infra- Ainar organized by Shehri-CBE the lead up to these legislation/rules structure (which will not be so sim- that clearly indicates some funda- have been entirely set aside or di- ple to implement) has been mental crisis in urban development luted beyond recognition. disregarded. The implication on the in Karachi. Relevant excerpts are rest of the city has been overlooked, quoted below: 2) While purporting to “identify and the poorer sections of society and earmark the high-density zones have been forgotten Having gathered here today, 16th in the urban centers of the cities of June 2011, at the Auditorium of the the province, in consultation with 4) Such over-exploitation of the IEP, Karachi, to examine: the utility agencies, keeping in view city will convert what is left into a the general principles of the Master concrete jungle, and destroy the so- l The Sindh High Density Develop- Plan” (extract from the Act 2010), cial fabric. Amenity plots all over the ment Board Act 2010, and the legislation and rules have only city are being ruthlessly grabbed by l The Sindh High Density Develop- been simplistically and crudely encroachers today, while the gov- ment Board (Rules & Procedures) amended to permit: ernment looks on silently. Utilities 2011 (water, gas, electricity) are becoming a) enhanced building sizes on exist- scarcer with each passing day, traffic We citizens (engineers, architects, ing plots (up to twelve times chaos is multiplying, law and order town-planners, environmentalists, more) is deteriorating and pollution will economists, other professionals, ac- b) amalgamation of plots (up to any soon overwhelm us. Protests, public tivists and concerned members of size) riots and violence are increasing. the public) express our disappoint- c) commercialization of residential ment and dismay at the legislation properties 5) It is imperative that planning and rules that have been passed by d) elimination of set-backs (required must be realistic, simple, and in line our parliamentary and government for ventilation and sunlight pene- with our countries resources, both representatives allegedly for the tration), and physical and human. While imitating benefit of the city and its residents. e) inadequate parking facilities the developed countries is fashion- able, we must try for the possible. The relevant issues include: 3) The corresponding strengthen- 1) The recommendations made by ing of the utility services, and expan-

While the development of a High adverse consequences should such creasing with more emphasis on the Density Zone in itself is something a plan is put into practice. Maybe a use of private vehicle. During 1990 quite normal for a large urban set- discussion and focus on climate to 2008, the observed growth in ve- tlement, the history and practice of change and an urban heat island ef- hicles is comparatively greater than disregarding the relevant social and fect can provide an appropriate con- the population growth. There were environmental consequences and text for stimulating discussion 1,113,000 registered vehicles in lack of transparency of major urban regarding this government decision. Karachi in 2002 and 8,420,000 regis- development projects in Karachi tered vehicles in 2007. During this and in the province generally has transport short time period, we saw the regu- made the citizens wary of the likely Automobile load on the roads is in- lar growth in vehicles. The observed

45 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

growth during this time period is Fig. 33 about 656% and it is many time population and Vehicular growth more that the growth in urban pop- ulation.25 There were 1,113,000 16 registered 14 The numbers are likely to grow mul- vehicles in Karachi in 2002 and 8,420,000 12 tifold. In the JICA demand forecast registered vehicles in 10 study - Special Assistance for Project 2007. During this Formation (SAPROF) for Karachi Cir- short time period, 8 there was a regular 6 cular Railway Project, 2009 - vehi- growth in vehicles. cle ownership in 2020 was The observed growth 4 estimated at 61.6%. With the aver- during this time 2 period is about 656% age number of household members 0 and it is many time 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 taken as 3.9, which was obtained more that the growth from the JICA person trip study, the in urban population! Population growth Vehicles growth number of households in 2020 was Trend line of vehicles growth Trend line of population growth estimated at about 7 million and the Source: The preliminary study of urbanization, fossil fuels consumptions and CO2 emission in Karachi number of vehicles owned esti- S. H. Sajjad, N. Blond, A. Clappier, Asif Raza, Safdar Ali Shirazi and Khadija Shakrullah, African Journal mated at about 4.3 million - equiva- of Biotechnology Vol. 9(13), pp. 1941-1948, 29 March, 2010 lent to 156 vehicles per 1,000 people.. The emission of air pollutants is di- tional experience indicates that a rectly related to fuel consumption. major share of the emission load Pakistan’s consumption of petro- from motor vehicles can beat trib- leum products is growing at an an- uted to a relatively small number of nual rate of approximately 6 per smoky diesel and two-stroke vehi- cent, almost half of which is con- cles (ADB,2005x). The main sources sumed by the transport sector26. of ambient air pollution in Karachi Vehicle-generated air pollution is are old and ill-maintained vehi- severe, with high concentrations of cles,waste burning (8,000 tones of fine and ultra fine particles in the air waste generated/day), re-sus- which can cause respiratory prob- pended dust, and smallscale busi- lems among a large number of nesses using ‘dirty fuels’ for Karachi’s urban residents (ADB, manufacturing and production pur- 2005b). The fastest growth in mo- poses. Air pollution levels in Karachi bile sources has been in two-stroke are extremely high by international delivery vehicles, but the number of standards and rising each year (WB diesel trucks and buses has also in- 2005). Promoting private transport use Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE creased up to three times. Interna-

25 The preliminary study of urbanization, fossil fuels consumptions and CO2 emission in Karachi S. H. Sajjad, N. Blond, A. Clappier, Asif Raza, Safdar Ali Shirazi and KhadijaShakrullah, African Journal of Biotechnology Vol. 9(13), pp. 1941- 1948, 29 March, 2010 26 A Strategic Approach for Air PollutionReduction in Karachi,Dieter Schwela, Gary Haq and Mohammad Aqib Uddin, Stockholm Environment Institute, IUCN, Pakistan Clean Air Network

46 While regularly updated data on ve- Fig. 34 hicular emissions is not available some recent surveys indicate a sig- Industrial growth on the rise! nificant air quality implication of the 9000 50 growth in traffic load. Ambient air 8000 45 quality monitoring including SO2,

7000 40 ) NO2, CO, CO2 and PM10 was carried 2 out at 4 locations along the Karachi 6000 35 Circular Railway (KCR) route for the 5000 30 Special Assistance for Project For- 4000 25 mation (SAPROF) for Karachi Circu- 3000 20 (km area Industrial Industrial units Industrial lar Railway Project, 2009. The 2000 15 various sources of air pollution in 1000 10 the project area were indicated as 1947-1953 1961-1969 1983-1986 1987-2009 industrial emissions, vehicular traf- fic, and dust arising from field road Industrial Industrial Units Area (Km2) side and construction activities. The Source: The preliminary study of urbanization, fossil fuels consumptions and CO2 emission in prime objective of baseline air qual- Karachi -S. H. Sajjad, N. Blond, A. Clappier, Asif Raza, Safdar Ali Shirazi and Khadija Shakrullah, ity survey was to determine the African Journal of Biotechnology Vol. 9(13), pp. 1941-1948, 29 March, 2010 baseline of ambient air quality in units and area is not uniform and 2007 with an increase of 219%. This and around the KCR route.The ambi- the industrial zones became denser oil and petrol are mainly used in ent air quality data indicated much with time.27 The emissions from in- transport and power sectors higher value of suspended particu- dustrial sources are discussed (Sheikh, 2010). After 1993, along late matter at all the four locations briefly in the overall context of fossil with the transport sector, the con- than the prescribed limits. The val- fuel consumption and C02 emis- sumption of oil increased mainly ues of SO2, NOx and CO were found sions separately. due to usage of oil in thermal power to be within or slightly over the per- stations which were established just missible limits. Fossil fuel consumption and after 1992 (Pakistan, 1994). After CO2 emissions 2001, thousands of the old diesel Industrial growth Consumption of coal in 1980 was engine vehicles were replaced by The major industrial development in 262,000 short tons that increased to the compressed natural gas (CNG) Karachi was during 1947 to 1969 1,009,000 short tons in 2007 with engines. Consumption of natural gas and during 1986 to 2009. The high an increase of 285%. During 1993 to increased from 40 billion cubic feet growth rate in urban population and 2000, the coal consumption was in 1980 to 186 billion cubic feet with urbanization was also observed dur- quite stable but during 2000 to an increase of 365%. Its consump- ing in the era of industrialization. 2006 increased a lot. This rapid in- tion has been regularly increasing The computed growths in industrial crease is mainly due to increase of with time. It is mainly consumed in units and industrial area are 249% consumption of coal in cement in- power generation, industries and and 147%, respectively. It clearly dustry. The per day consumption of houses. Its consumption in trans- shows that the proportion of in- oil and petrol jumped from 16,000 port sector is vibrantly increasing creasing trends between industrial barrels in 1980 to 51,000 barrels in with time. 27 The preliminary study of urbanization, fossil fuels consumptions and CO2 emission in Karachi

47 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

Co2 emission Fig. 35 otal per-capita energy con- karachi City - Energy Consumption trends Tsumption in Pakistan is 12.4 million BTUs (1 BTUs = 1,055.055 70 joules) that contributes 0.7 met- 51.9% ric tons per-capita energy related 60 39.2% CO2 emission in environment. Figure 9 is showing the regular in- 50 crease of CO2 emission in atmos- 5.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.6% phere over Karachi. The rate of 40 emission of CO2 is not only rapid thousands barrels/day but it is showing a regular and 30 positive trend without any signifi- y = 1.5662x - 3083.7 cant down fall throughout the 20 computed time. It is observed R2 = 0.9032 that the CO2 emission in atmos- 10 phere has reached up to 151 mil- 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 lion metric tons in 2006 that was just 39 million metric tons in Source: The preliminary study of urbanization, fossil fuels consumptions and CO2 emission in Karachi - S. H. Sajjad, N. Blond, A. Clappier, Asif Raza, Safdar Ali Shirazi and Khadija Shakrullah, 1980. This 287% increase in CO2 African Journal of Biotechnology Vol. 9(13), pp. 1941-1948, 29 March, 2010 during 1980 to 2007 is the result of mass urbanization and energy consumption in Karachi Fig. 36 karachi City - Co2 Emissions profile Source: The preliminary study of urbanization, fossil fuels consumptions and CO2 emission in 5 Karachi S. H. Sajjad, N. Blond, A. Clappier, Asif Raza, Safdar Ali Shirazi and Khadija Shakrullah, 4 African Journal of Biotechnology Vol. 9(13), pp. 1941-1948, 29 March, 2010

3 A few critical vulnerabilities to be highlighted that render the power generation facilities and systems 2 under severe stress during extreme y = 0.0963x - 189.52 heat spells include extended and sustained load shedding schedules 1 R2 = 0.9577 (supply-demand gap) and frequent million metric tons of Co2 tripping of generation units.) 0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Source: The preliminary study of urbanization, fossil fuels consumptions and CO2 emission in Karachi -S. H. Sajjad, N. Blond, A. Clappier, Asif Raza, Safdar Ali Shirazi and Khadija Shakrullah, African Jour- nal of Biotechnology Vol. 9(13), pp. 1941-1948, 29 March, 2010

48 on consumer input) was indicated during the warmer months of the year. Capacity constraints at differ- ent levels of the water utility to deal with the associated challenges of in- creased demand have already been discussed in detail earlier .

Informal service provision - Accessing a pub- weakening defences lic water supply network Green spaces (parks/farmlands) re- Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE duce the urban heat island by re- flecting more of the incoming solar a Citizen Report Card (CRC) was con- energy than urban materials, as well ducted at the initiative of the as absorbing energy through photo- KW&SB with the technical support synthesis and providing cooling of the Water and Sanitation Pro- through evaporative gram (WSP) Pakistan office. Among transpiration.As already discussed Increasing energy demand other service delivery aspects and earlier in detail the green cover in Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE consumer coping mechanisms it the city is decreasing. also investigated the water con- sumption trends and a clear in- crease in water consumption (based

Fig. 37 water usage profile – Annual Fluctuations

Seasonal water Scarcity Widening gap in supply and demand Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE 100 water usage 80 In extreme heat events, a much greater than normal pressure is ex- 60 erted on the potable water supply sources with increased consump- 40 tion. As there is no water metering 20 at the retail level in Karachi, there is April May June July January March August February October Decmber no way of accurately assessing the 0 September November fluctuations or trends in water con- sumption. However, recently a pub- Source: Water & Sewerage Services in Karachi – Citizen Report Card - Sustainable Service Delivery lic perception survey in the form of Improvements –2010 – KW&SB/WSP

49 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

Critical Challenges user while at the same time acting as possible physical barriers and • Critical gaps in our ‘understanding’ of urban development trends constraints to the development of a overheating risks and target priority areas viable public transport system. m Relation between population density and heat island effect m Contribution of anthropogenic factors in raising urban heat – traf- The issue of the ever existing and fic/air-condition use etc.) widening supply-demand gap in m Impact on infrastructure (E.g. power, water, transport) water supply, related cross cutting m Health impacts concerns and the grave institutional • Shrinking green cover in the city challenges being faced by the water • Promote a green roof/rooftop garden program utility – the KW&SB - has already • A transport infrastructure that discourages use of public transport been discussed. Yet again here the and focuses on promoting use of ‘private automobiles’ major cause of concern is on the • Extremely high water and energy loss during transmission and distri- bution and no promotion of ‘water’ and ‘energy’ conservation meas- prioritization of actions to tackle the ures – lack of focus on alternative and environment friendly ‘energy challenges. Focus is largely on aug- sources’ menting water supply. While such • Critical gaps in the ‘health emergency response systems – an action can provide benefits in health/emergency/trauma facilities the short run, it cannot on its own provide a viable and lasting solution to the crisis unless it is linked with End note commodate residential and com- measures to drastically reduce Lack of appropriate data and re- mercial growth pressures. water loss and actively work to pro- search again act as a constraining mote water conservation and waste factor in determining the presence An appalling lack of focus and prior- water reclamation practices to and extent of the relevant climate ity on providing the city with so- lessen the pressure on the already change impacts such as the urban cially, environmentally and stressed water supply resources. A heat island effect. However, possible financially viable public transport new paradigm in water resources contributing factors can be identi- options has led to a phenomenal management has to be envisioned fied and mostly relate with the un- growth in the numbers of private by working with a basket of op- planned and unregulated growth vehicle usage that is now globally tions for improved service provi- that has now become the norm in being discouraged as a sustainable sion and institutional reforms. Karachi’s development scenario. mode of transport in terms of ad- Options for horizontal growth are verse impacts on the environment now negligible if not already ex- and sustainable growth of urban hausted within the inner city and settlements. While there is much vertical growth scenarios are being talk of investing in public transport considered – however, without options, it is a matter of grave con- proper consideration for the social, cern that the present enhanced environmental safeguards necessary focus on specific transport infra- for making them a viable planning structure such as flyovers is geared and development strategy to ac- to the benefit of the private vehicle

50 Fig. 38 • Rising water table • Salt water intrusion - karachi City - • Inundation and flooding Cascading Consequences for ‘Extreme heat Events’ • Storm surge • Coastal erosion

Sea level rise: possible Impacts

Declining public health Increased gap in water‘supply and dmand’ Increased gap in power ‘supply • Damage to sensitive Public discontent and and demand’ government installations and possible conflict Urban heat Island’ Stress on health in effect Increased water residential/recreational and Financial stress- frastructure/facilities usage commercial properties infrastructure Psycho logical and Increased energy demand repair and health social stresses • Damage to bio-diversity/ costs for cooling (air ecosystems Disruption conditioning) Heat ExtrEmE Setback to ofindustrial and related illness and hEAt • Livelihoods loss – fishing economy due to commercial activities deaths EVENtS communities disruption of commercial and Urban services Damage to temperature industrial activities disturbed due to related Infrastructure infrastructure damage (power and transport) Average sea levels have been rising Heavy financial (power supply, water Increased ‘load around the world during recent burden on already supply, transport) stressed public services shedding’ decades, but with significant re- for repair and Consumers shift to more gional variation. The average rate of maintenance works costlyservice options (power/water supply) rise accelerated from 1.8mm per year between 1961 and 2003 to 3.1mm per year between 1993 and 2003.Sea-level rise is a serious con- cern for coastal cities as rising water levels and storm surges can cause property damage, displacement of residential/recreational and com- SEA lEVEl rISE residents, disruption of transporta- mercial properties tion and wetland loss.28 Sea-level rise refers to the increase • Livelihoods loss – fishing commu- nities in the mean level of the oceans. Tropical cyclones are weather sys- Within the context of extreme heat tems that are being related with Sea level rise, by itself and in combi- events, the following focus areas (though the science is not ab- nation with other coastal hazards, are being considered. solutely conclusive) possible rising such as intense storms and the ef- of sea surface temperatures and fects of climate change, can have • Damage to bio-diversity/ecosys- consequent sea level rise. They are many interacting consequences. tems associated with thunderstorms and Possible hazards include: • Damage to sensitive government strong winds characterized by their installations and wind circulation patterns and a well-

28 Global Report on Human Settlements,2011,United Nations Human Settlements Programme

51 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

defined centre resulting in waves table 5 and storm surges (i.e. temporary offshore rise of water) that can Sea level rise in karachi According to the Studies Carried out at the National Institute of oceanography damage property and threaten the (NIo), the Sea level Along the Coast of pakistan has Been rising Approximately safety of communities and bio-di- at 1.2 mm per year, in Agreement with the Average global rise of 1.5 mm per versity in the affected area. year Since 1960. Based on karachi tidal Station records projections for the Next 100 years are Estimated at a rate of 1.1mm/yr rise Assessing risk projected level (m) tidal State present State (m) The risks posed by sea level rise it- after 100 years self for Karachi may be negligible in Lowest Astronomical Tide -0.49 +0.11 the short term and current time- Mean Lower Low Water +0.97 +1.57 frame but may become a cause for Mean Higher Low Water +1.43 +2.03 concern in a longer run. However, again, the science and related re- Mean Sea Level +2.04 +2.64 search is inconclusive but climate Mean Lower High Water +2.65 +3.25 change then is all about considering Mean Higher High Water +3.38 +3.98 possibilities and dealing with fore- Highest Astronomical Tide +3.84 +4.44 casts rather than certainties and predictions. The most viable and cost effective approach to minimiz- tropical Cyclone Impact ing the possible impacts of sea level yclones are classified as ‘storms’ when sustained wind speeds reach rise in the longterm is the integra- between 63km to 118km per hour, while a hurricane is a tropical cy- tion of measures into infrastructure C clone with sustained wind speeds exceeding 118km per hour design and development planning in the short term. Such an approach The implications of increased cyclone activity andintensity are far reach- would translate the long term risks ing for cities. Power outages duringstorms disrupt transportation, eco- of sea level into an active policy and nomic activity and supplyof potable water. Physical destruction caused planning, management issue for by storms isoften extremely expensive to repair and results in fatali- today. tiesand injuries to humans and wildlife. Furthermore, inundationof water during storms can contaminate water supplieswith saltwater, However, the implications of an ex- chemicals and waterborne diseases treme weather event such as cy- clone have a greater urgency and Source:Global Report on Human Settlements 2011,United Nations Human Settlements Programme intensity attached to them for Karachi. Major flooding associated with a major cyclonic event can re- damage due to wetlands destruc- disrupt supply of potable water and sult in serious damage to businesses tion, inundation of sewage and contaminate water supplies with and residential complexes, disrup- damage to low lying residential/ saltwater, chemicals and water- tion of economic activity (e.g. at the recreational areas and coastal fish- borne diseases. Karachi Port and Fish Harbor) in- ing communities. Furthermore, in- juries and fatalities, environmental undation of water during storms can

52 The National Institute of Oceanog- table 6 raphy (NIO) is of the view that the Cyclones – Extreme Events ground subsidence rates in the Indus deltaic region due to lack of Name/year Impact losses sediment flux and excessive ground Sindh & Balochistan 2.5 million affected. Yemyin (June water extraction are probably in the (coastal and adjoining 7 districts of Balochistan and 2 2007) range 2-4 mm per year. The ground regions) of Sindh severely affected subsidence has already resulted in Localized impact. Cyclone impacted the sea water intrusion upstream of with a reduced impact result- Onil Oct 2004 Sindh – Thatta and Badin the delta extending up to 80 km in ing in heavy local precipi- the coastal areas of Thatta, Hyder- tation abad and Badin districts (Panhwar Cyclone of May Sindh coast - Thatta and 202 deaths. Houses fully / partially 1999; Inam et al. 2007). The main 1999 Badin damaged -138,719 factor considered responsible for in- 15 Dec 1965 Karachi and Thatta 10,000 affected trusion of sea water into the Indus (Source: Cyclone Contingency Plan for Karachi City 2008,NDMA) deltaic region is an insufficient flow of Indus water downstream Kotri barrage. An average of 35 maf went table 7 downstream Kotri during the period Coastal Installations: lifelines of ‘National’ Economy 1976-77 to 2002- 03; it varied be- the the Economic Importance tween 0.8 maf in 2000-01 (when Facility the IRS inflow was 103 maf) and 92 Karachi maf in 1994-95 (when the IRS inflow Karachi Port is now handling over 11.74 million tons of liquid cargo and Port 25.45 million tons of dry cargo, including 1,213,744 TEUs which was 166 maf) (GoP-MoW&P 2005). Trust constitute about 60% of import/export of the country However, possible scale and impacts of salt water intrusion along the Port The port encompasses a total area of 12,000 acres (49 km2) wherein Karachi coast are still not clear. Qasim many industrial zones operate. In addition to the Pakistan Steel Mills Authority and KESC Bin Qasim Power Plant (1260 MW) around 80% of the Pak- istan's automotive industry is located at Port Qasim. The port also pro- At risk – people and assets vides direct waterfront access to two major nearby industrial areas, Without having the facility of appro- Export Processing Zone (Landhi) and Korangi Industrial Area. Approxi- priate mapping and classification an mately 60% of country's export and import is originated from these effort nonetheless is being made to areas identify and classify areas of future Karachi Karachi is the biggest fishery hub in Pakistan. Fisheries play an impacts from ocean coastal flooding Fishing important role in Karachi's economy. They provide employment to due to projected sea level rise and Industry about 300,000 fishermen directly. In addition, another 400,000 people storms in order to reduce risk in are employed in ancillary industries. It is also a major source of export those areas. earning. The Karachi Fish Harbor (handles about 90% of fish and seafood catch in Pakistan and 95% of fish and seafood exports from Pakistan) and Korangi Fish Harbor are two major fish harbors in Karachi KANUPP KANUPP, Karachi is a single unit CANDU PHWR with a total gross capacity of 137 MW

53 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

people Karachi Fish Harbor play a critical Karachi. The approximated area of In terms of communities located in role in sustaining its functions. For these islands is 4 km² and the popu- the immediate risk zone, the most exports, the major fishery is for lation is about 12000. significant human settlements both prawns and the bulk of the catch is in terms of their exposure and vul- landed in Karachi where there are public and private infra- nerability are the fishing communi- export facilities, which have been structure ties residing in fishing villages approved by the European Union Public and private infrastructure dotted along the Karachi coast.No (EU), and where the competent au- dominates large sections of detailed Sector Study has been thority - the Federal Marine Fish- Karachi’s coastline. This infrastruc- done on the fisheries sector since eries Department is based. ture includes nuclear power plant, 1986 and there has been no work harbors and ports, sewage treat- on the estimation of fish stocks It is estimated that 100,000 people ment plants along with the housing, within the 12-200 mile zone for 20 (10,000 families) together with businesses and recreational re- years29. According to the State Bank more than 30,000 (household sources. of Pakistan (2005), the share of fish- heads) employed in the Karachi area eries in GDP is only 0.3% while its from Karachi Fish harbor, Ibrahim public infrastructure -Some share in agriculture is 1.3%. As such, Hyderi (most populace coastal fish- critical installations of national im- fisheries though not being a high ing village) and other landing cen- portance are located right along the value contributor to the national ters in Korangi creek and elsewhere coast. They include Karachi Nuclear wealth nevertheless supports signif- near Karachi depend on fisheries.30 Power Plant (KANUPP),the Karachi icant human livelihoods and that harbor (port and fisheries), naval in- too of extremely vulnerable com- More than the inland coastal com- stallations (PNS Himalya) and Port munities. munities would be the inhabitants Qasim Authority (PQA). Any disrup- of the twin islands of Babaand Bhit. tion in their functions even for a day Fishery is an export driven sector Baba Bhit Island is the smallest costs the nation in billions of ru- and the Karachi port and the neighborhood of Keamari Town in pees. The TP-3 Mauripur Waste

Fishing – an important livelihood source for Livelihoods at risk from shifting sea levels Fishing – A family industry coastal communities Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE

29 Pakistan Coastal and Inland Community Development Project, 2005, ADB Technical Assistance Consultants Report (Financed by the Japan Special Fund) – Prepared by ANZDEC Limited Consultants, ANZDEC Limited, New Zealand – in cooperation with Resource Monitoring and Development Group, Pakistan and SEBCON (Pvt.) Limited Pakistan 30 Pakistan Coastal and Inland Community Development Project, 2005, ADB Technical Assistance Consultants Report (Financed by the Japan Special Fund) – Prepared by ANZDEC Limited Consultants, ANZDEC Limited, New Zealand – in cooperation with Resource Monitoring and Development Group, Pakistan and SEBCON (Pvt.) Limited Pakistan

54 The Karachi harbor – a critical national economic lifeline Public recreation at Clifton beach Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE Water Treatment Plant (54 MGD ca- A viable planning document – the pacity) is also located close to the Karachi Coastal Recreation Develop- Lyari River estuary. Wastewater ment Plan, 1990-2000 –(Karachi De- treatment plants in the coastal zone velopment Authority Master Plan & are at risk from flooding and the as- Environmental Control Department, sociated corrosion caused by salt UNDP, United Nations Center for water infiltration. In addition to the Human Settlement, Doxiadis Associ- treatment facilities themselves, the ate International Group S.A Consult- substrate for sewer pipes could be ant on Development and Ekistics & damaged by erosion and a rising Osmani and Company Private Lim- water table. The combined sewer ited) serves as the guideline for outfall systems, such as the Lyari coastline recreation development as and Malir river outfalls and drainage per the Karachi Building and Town channel outfalls already experienc- Planning Regulations where the en- ing untreated discharges during tire 40 mile strip of Karachi coastline high-rainfall events in Karachi, can Expanding commercial development along right from Hub River estuary passing be further compromised by back- the coastline through Paradise Point, Hawksbay, flow and/or gravity discharge prob- Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE Manora and Western/eastern back- lems as sea level rises. waterfront land – along the Clifton waters and Clifton, Gizri, Defence beach for example. Coastal land and Korangi right upto Gharo creek private infrastructure -A key reclamation has also taken place in is an interim control area for the area of concern for the Karachi City the process and the possible im- purpose and tourism. planners could be the major resi- pacts on the coastal hydrology – dential, business and recreation erosion and deposition patterns -are The guidelines are extensive in areas being constructed along the uncertain. terms of identifying environmental

55 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

planning zones – conservation, uti- fish, birds and other wildlife. They mitigating their loss. Such migration lization, restricted zones – however, also improve surface water quality will not be possible in areas where firstly there are no provisions for by filtering, storing, and detoxifying shoreline protective structures, de- dealing with any scenarios that wastes. The major export item in velopment, or natural impediments might be related with climate the fishery sector for Pakistan is (open water or steep slopes) pre- change and secondly, the level to shrimps/prawns and mangroves vent it (already we are altering the which the guidelines are being fol- provide a nursery area for shrimp Karachi shoreline through develop- lowed in terms of completed or post larvae and juveniles.31 ment related land reclamation).32 planned coastal development is far from satisfactory. Recent studies suggest that storm Other than their bio-diversity and surges superimposed on higher sea economic value, there are other Ecosystems levels will increase the frequency reasons why coastal wetlands and All the possible hazards associated and extent of flooding in coastal re- marshes need to be protected. Such with seal level rise scenario have gions and estuaries, thus increasing ecosystems are also an important the capacity of damaging, in cases the risk of damage to vulnerable form of natural infrastructure along irreversibly the exposed ecosystems wetlands.At the lower end of pro- the shore and are estimated to pre- viability. Following are highlighted jected sea level rise rates, the slow vent approximately $23 billion dol- some Karachi’s critical coastal deposition of water-borne sediment lars in coastal storm damage each ecosystems that are likely to be im- will enable some tidal wetlands to year on the southeast and Gulf of pacted: migrate into adjacent upland areas, Mexico coasts.33 There is some evi- mangroves – tidal wetlands Wetland loss (mangrove forests) in coastal areas along the Indus delta and Karachi coast is a cause of seri- ous concern. Wetlands are undergo- ing either rapid conversion to mudflats, or have been filled to cre- ate land for development. In addi- tion to the loss of natural services caused by filling wetlands, the low-elevation communities or prop- erties that come up at their cost can be at high risk from storm surge and sea level rise.Wetlands provide criti- cal spawning grounds, nurseries, The mangroves ecosystem – precious biodiversity shelter, and food for finfish, shell- Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE

31 Pakistan Coastal and Inland Community Development Project, 2005, ADB Technical Assistance Consultants Report (Financed by the Japan Special Fund) – Prepared by ANZDEC Limited Consultants, ANZDEC Limited, New Zealand – in cooperation with Resource Monitoring and Development Group, Pakistan and SEBCON (Pvt.) Limited Pakistan 32 New York State Sea Level Rise Task Force Report to the Legislature, December 2010 33 Costanza, R., et al. 2006. The Value of New Jersey's Ecosystem Services and Natural Capital: Part One, 3, http://www.nj.gov/dep/dsr/natu- ralcap/nat-cap-overview.pdf.

56 dence to suggest that as mangroves Fig. 39 are able to absorb 70-90% of the the green turtle Nesting habitat – energy from a normal wave, they hawksbay/Sandspit Beach EcoSystem acted as viable buffers during the 2006 Tsunami catastrophe. the Sandspit/hawksbay ecosystem- threatened habitat To provide an idea of the ecological richness and sensitivity of the Karachi coastline a brief outline is being provided of the natural back- water habitat of the Sandspit/ Hawksbay beach ecosystem. Some turtle Nesting places of the main wetland sites on Karachi 2009 (Sep) coast that have been identified as Wetlands of International Impor- tance and include the Sandspit/ Hawksbay area. The area has al- 0 155 310 620 930 Meters ready been included in the Direc- (Source: SHEHRI-CBE) tory of Asian Wetlands. A large area of Sandspit/Hawksbay back waters morants,flamingoes,ducks,gulls and There is a direct link between possi- supports dense mangrove vegeta- terns.34 ble climate change scenarios and tion comprising Avicennia marina sustainability of turtle nesting and species of mangroves.The back wa- Sea Turtles enjoy a protected status breeding. Sea level rise can result in ters contain a very rich and complex in Pakistan. Virtually all the marine reducing the available beach habi- food web of algae, invertebrates liv- turtles nesting sites in Sindh occur tat. In addition to rising sea levels, ing in the mud, such as worms, on the Hawksbay/Sandspit beaches, climate change is also likely to result shrimps,crabs and juvenile fish. concentrated along one 5 km in further increases in the tempera- Many water birds are to be found in stretch but extending in some de- ture of the sand, which could alter this area,especially herons,waders gree along the entire beach strip of such as stints,sandpipers,red- around 20 km. These two beaches shanks,avocets and black winged represent the largest nesting habitat stilts, and hawks such as ospreys, for marine turtles in Pakistan where and brahminny kites.The ecosystem the dominant resident turtle is the is one of the most important areas green turtle. Due to various human for wintering, passage and summer- activities the habitat and green tur- ing shorebirds in Pakistan,and also tles are already threatened . supports significant numbers of cor- A nesting green turtle at the Sandspit beach Shehri-CBE 34 Directory of Asian Wetlands

57 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

the sex ratio in sea turtle popula- Study: Sandspit/Hawksbay Coastal gible manner on the possible im- tions.As with some other reptile Ecosystem as a Turtle Nesting Habi- pacts of any climate change sce- species, the sex of sea turtle hatch- tat, 2010- already established a di- nario. However, despite absence of lings is determined by rect relationship between: historical data of cyclone impact on temperature.In the case of turtles, Karach,i two scenarios have been hatching when the sand is above • increasing elevation of the beach identified by the Pakistan Meteoro- the pivotal temperature produces a and the increasing numbers of logical Department (PMD) that have female; hatching below the temper- successful turtle nests been documented in the Cyclone ature produces a male.Similarly, if • decreasing ground water level Contingency Plan for Karachi City, the air and water temperatures rise, and increasing number of suc- prepared by the National Disaster the time of year when sea turtle cessful turtle nests Management Authority (NMDA) nesting occurs could be drastically Government of Pakistan in 2008. changed.The major cause of sea Both favorable physical attributes The worst case scenario is high- level is expansion of the ocean due are likely to change in case of a sea lighted below: to raised temperatures(Since 1961, level rise scenario adversely impact- the world’s oceans have been ab- ing on the green turtle nesting pat- Scenario 1 – Cyclone cate- sorbing more than 80 per cent of terns. gory III or above (worst the heat added to the climate, caus- cases scenario) depicts a World ing ocean water to expand and con- tropical cyclone in karachi Meteorological Department (WMO) tributing to rising sea levels. – likely scenario defined Category III cyclone storm Between 1993 and 2003, ocean ex- Not much has been done to simu- or above making landfall in Karachi pansion was the largest contributor late or think in a quantitative or tan- City. Its key impacts are summarized to sea-level rise35). Evidence is grow- below: - ing that changes in temperature due Fig. 40 to climate change shift critical life events in many species including higher ground water level – less Nesting their breeding, feeding and migra- SANDBAr tion cycles.One recent study con- cludes that it is likely that southern 0 populations of turtles in the United 1 States will become “ultra-biased” 2 towards female populations if tem- Water depth 3 peratures increase by even 1˚C.3 36 Top Soil Core 4 A recent Study conducted by Shehri- 5 Citizens for a Better Environment 6 (funded by the office of WWF Pak- 7 istan) - Assessing the habitat suit- Soil Core-4 Soil Core-6 Soil Core-5 ability for specie habitation- Case (Source: Shehri-CBE)

35 Global Report on Human Settlements,2011,United Nations Human SettlementsProgramme 36 Elizabeth Griffin, Emily Frost, Lisa White, David Allison. Climate Change and Commercial Fishing: A One-twoPunch for Sea Turtles. November, 2007

58 Storm surge wave Storm wind rainfall • It would start to impact Karachi • Wind speed up to 64 – 120 knots • Approximately 200 -225 mm rain- City with increasing velocity when (118-222 kmh) is expected fall (9-10 inches) is expected over the cyclone is 25-30 kilometers • Wind impact would commence a period of 36 hours in the City from the coast when the cyclone is 25-30 kilo- • Its intensity is likely to be more • It reaches peak about 2 kilome- metres from the coast pronounced along the centre / tres from the coast with maxi- • Its impact is most likely to be se- eye of the cyclone mum speed vere along the centre / eye of the • Height of the surge wave could cyclone End note range between 12-15 feet or • Wind impact would vary depend- As with the case of other climate above ing on the direction / axis of the change scenarios, here again, there • The wave is likely to travel up to 5 cyclone movement is a desperate need for research, fill- km inland • Wind pressure decreases as cy- ing of data gaps and working with • The topography of Karachi City clone passes certain point data to inform appropriate decision adjoining the coast does not offer making, starting with the outlining any natural resistance to the tidal of areas of greatest vulnerability to wave - Impediments would be in the shape of city infrastructure or built up area • Depending on the point of impact Fig. 41 the water inflows would be regu- potential Scale of urban Flooding lated along the road network and along Malir and Lyari rivers plus other storm water drains • Immediate impact would be total paralysis within 3-5 kilometres of the coastal region depending on the point of the impact of storm surge wave • However communications paraly- sis can occur in low lying areas lo- cated much deeper from the point of impact

Conclusion City authorities would have to evacuate population within a minimum of 2 kilometers along

the coast (Source: Cyclone Contingency Plan for Karachi City 2008,NDMA)

59 Section 2: Understanding the Impacts

table 8 Critical Challenges likely humanitarian Impact – Scenario 1 • Critical assets and vulnerable towns population Affected population communities at potential flood risk Worst affected towns (5 3,651,791 2,395,368 towns) • High potential for residual Moderately affected towns (2 1,730,957 407,864 damage in case infrastructure towns) changes to protect areas from Towns affected by rain and property damage from storm 9,737,082 1,864,641 winds (13 towns) surge/flood water (diverting grand total 15,119,830 4,667,873 and concentrating flood waters to more confined locations) Affected pop / relief Caseload in worst Affected towns are not initiated Korangi 829,813 622,360 (75%) DHA 379,596 303,677 (80%) • No focus on assessing needs Saddar 935,566 654,897 (70%) for development of structural and non-structural flood pro- Keamri 583,640 583,640 (100) tection projects Lyari 923,176 230,794 (25%) total 3,651,791 2,395,368 • More extensive storm water 50% of the entire population in the worst affected towns would need to be evacu- capture infrastructure to de- ated crease the potential of flood-

(Source: Cyclone Contingency Plan for Karachi City 2008,NDMA) ing impacts

• No habitat management plan coastal hazards. Shoreline invento- ing flood protection barriers, sea in placefor critical bio-diversity ries should be completed for public walls, beach nourishment or divert- and habitats within the con- and private infrastructure and as- ing and concentrating flood waters text of climate change risk sets in addition to the status of the to more confined locations. How- • Urgent need to build capacity threatened bio-diversity and sup- ever, another long term threat for among exposed and vulnera- porting ecosystems. The relevant which consideration can be given ble communities for reducing agencies and authorities must con- now is within the context of what is vulnerabilities tinue to monitor coastal processes termed as residual damage – where and improve understanding of how irreversible damage takes place they will be affected by sea level from a climate change scenario. This rise. is more relevant in the case of sea level rise as rising sea level and re- Protective measures against flood- sulting erosion may result in loss of ing say from a cyclonic event need coastal land. to be considered, such as construct-

60 Over the long term, non-structural Fig. 42 measures, such as elevation of karachi City - Cascading Consequences for ‘Sea level rise’ at-risk structures and planned relo- cation away from the coastal shore- line, may prove more cost effective, as structural solutions, other than being more costly also may limit Setback to local/national public access to beaches and pre- economic growth Damage to bio-diversity vent natural systems from migrating Possible and ecosystems resettlement and inland as water levels increase financial /social Livelihoods loss support ( fishing communities) owing to barriers created by coastal challenge Heightened urban (livelihood loss Damage to sensitive flashflood risk (E.g. structures and changes in shoreline of fishing government increased cyclone communities) installations and events) SEA configuration, leaving them to residential and lEVEl Job losses recreational/ Salt water intrusion rISE drown in place. However a strategy commercial Financial stress- properties Increased ‘coastal adopting mixed approaches of infrastructure erosion’ repair and health Services disturbed structural and non-structural solu- costs due to infrastructure tions may offer the best solutions.. damage (power, Setback to real estate transport, water supply etc.) and property business A critical priority is to build capacity Public discontent and possible conflict in the exposed and vulnerable com- munities through raising awareness about the risks so that they can act to reduce the vulnerability of high-risk areas. Community-based organizations need to be engaged Fig. 43 with for mobilizing public opinion and building the required adaptive Climate Change risk Zone map (madiha Salam, Shehri-CBE) capacity and resilience. Climate Change risk Zone people and Assets EPZA Since a large number of federal and Main Natural Nala Fishing Village private entities own land and assets Slum Settlements along the coast, a larger and more Agriculture Land holistic framework around a com- Flora and Fauna Hub River prehensive climate change adapta- Kanupp tion strategy would have to be Clifton/Defance worked out so that the city govern- Navy Installions Harbor ment can mediate and negotiate Port Qasim the required actions and responses. Steel Mill Power Stations

Hill Settlements

FB AREA ZONE SITE TP 4

61 Section 3 : Managing the Impacts

n a country like Pakistan where marginalized communities – within have steadily eroded. Karachi in ef- there are crisis a plenty with the which measures for climate change fect is a highly decentralized city in Ieconomy and critical institutions adaptation are integrated. This is terms of control over land and pro- of the state struggling to find rele- what constitutes as making a city re- vision of services. This decentraliza- vance within a viable governance silient not just to meet a climate tion is manifested both officially and framework, where the social sector change impact but to cope with the unofficially. is stressed and heightened security everyday risks and urban growth concerns a matter of daily routine it challenges generally. The context Nearly 90% of city land is under is difficult to imagine that an issue therefore is of making a city vibrant public ownership, where housing fa- like climate change and possible and well governed with prepared- cilities cannot be extended without long term projections laced with un- ness to meet likely climate change the consent of owning agency, of certainties would create a sense of scenarios accruing as a co- which there are 17 major institu- urgency and need for immediate ac- benefit.This understanding can lead tions (ADB 2005). The city govern- tion. Mobilizing people and institu- to a strategically important shift of ment owns only 30.9% of the land.37 tions for action would then require not considering climate change While decentralization may be one placing the issue in a context that adaptation as something separate challenge, the greater challenge is can find both relevance and urgency rather incorporating the relevant the complete absence of a coordi- within our larger planning priorities. policy and strategies in the overall nating legislative or administrative development framework as they re- mechanism binding these decentral- A discussion on climate change late to specific sectors and institu- ized entities. Due to a variety of rea- adaptation should therefore start tions. sons, mostly political, the mandate with a discussion on how the cli- and relevance of the local govern- mate change-related risks fit within If we focus on Karachi than there ment development authorities has other existing risks and priority chal- are some fundamental challenges been minimized to a level that most lenges rather than on the risks that related to the larger governance development taking place along the climate change is bringing or may and institutional framework that peripheral areas is informal in na- bring. Climate change adaptation is need to be addressed first. Under- ture mostly through land grabs. Pro- all about promoting good develop- standing the political economy is vision of services is not sanctioned ment and good governance and on the first step in moving towards de- for these settlements rather are ac- bringing all relevant stakeholders vising a viable strategy for reforms. cessed illegally accessing tapping under a common platform for ac- While developing and implementing civic infrastructure. Conflicts, basi- tion and coordination. The strategic a climate change adaptation strat- cally political in nature with ethnic, framework that binds climate egy has to be a participatory financial and social underpinnings change adaptation actions are process, the main responsibility for are making the city and the associ- geared to meet already existing implementing policies to address ated policy formulation and devel- gaps and deficits in key urban serv- the impacts of climate change in opment processes more divisive and ices such as provision for water, san- cities rests with local governments. complicated. So the first challenge is itation, drainage, energy efficiency, For us this consideration offers the to resolve conflicts and place the housing and healthcare, emphasis most critical challenge of all. Over city government in a rightful place on sustainable public transport, and the years, the capacity and writ of of adopting the role of the improving the financial well being of local government entities in Karachi guardians of the city with the requi-

37 Karachi Strategic Development Plan (KSDP) 2020

62 managing the Impacts Flooding Drought Extreme heat Events Sea level rise Develop a ‘Flood Risk Zone’ Develop a ‘ground water Improve our ‘understand- Revised ‘planning guide- (E.g. ‘Flood Plain’ identifica- profile’ ing’ of urban development lines’ for ‘development’ tion of Lyari/Malir Rivers) trends overheating risks along the coastline – (E.g. Prepare a ‘ground water and target priority areas. reassessment of the ‘high Develop ‘Flood Risk Maps’ policy’ with identification of • Relation between ‘popu- water mark’) Identify critical ‘assets’ and ‘priority use’ and ‘water lation density’ and ‘heat ‘vulnerable communities’ at zoning’ island effect’ Identify critical ‘assets’ and flood risk • Contribution of ‘anthro- ‘vulnerable communities’ Implement projects to im- pogenic’ factors in raising at flood risk Develop a ‘surface water prove the ‘recharge’ and urban heat – traffic/air- management plan’ ‘storage capacity’ of river condition use etc.) Application of ‘infrastruc- basins/aquifers (E.g. Infil- • Impact on infrastructure ture changes’ to protect Evaluate and improve the tration basins, check/stor- (E.g. power, water, trans- areas from property dam- design (designed for an ap- age dams etc.) – port) age from storm surge/flood propriate rainfall intensity sustainability of farming • Health impacts water (diverting and con- and probability) and main- practices and bio-diversity centrating flood waters to tenance of the city Increase the ‘green cover’ more confined locations) ‘drainage network’ Implement measures to in the city promote ‘sustainable water Assess need for develop- Create an integrated ‘flood use’ in farming/agricultural Promote a ‘green ment of ‘flood protection’ reporting and response practices – cropping pat- roof/rooftop garden’ pro- projects such ‘barriers’ mechanism’ terns/preventing water loss gram against tidal flooding at ap- in irrigation etc. propriate locations Strict ‘policy/regulation’ to Implement a ‘transport pol- (Lyari/Malir barriers?) prevent settlements in the Strict policy/regulation to icy’ and ‘program’ that dis- ‘river bed’, ‘hills’ and en- prevent unsustainable courages use of private More extensive ‘storm croachments of drainage ‘sand extraction’ from river vehicles and focuses on water capture’ infrastruc- channels and land use basins/aquifers sustainable ‘public trans- ture to decrease the poten- changes impacting ad- port options’ tial of flooding impacts versely on the flood pre- Enhance technical, man- vention and management agement and financial ca- Reduce ‘water’ and ‘en- Develop a ‘habitat manage- capacity pacity of the water service ergy’ loss during transmis- ment plan’ for critical ‘bio- provider (Karachi Water & sion and distribution and diversity’ and ‘habitats’ Increase the ‘green cover’ Sewerage Board) to better promote ‘water’ and ‘en- within the context of cli- in the city to facilitate im- cope with crisis situations ergy’ conservation meas- mate change risk proved drainage (surface ures – focus on ‘alternative’ water flooding) and provide Promote ‘water conserva- and environment friendly High focus on preparing a protection against tidal tion’ practices (reduce use - ‘energy sources’ comprehensive assessment flooding - Green urban E.g. metering of water sup- The City Government in col- of the possible

63 Section 3 : Managing the Impacts

spaces (parks/playgrounds) ply - water harvesting etc.) laboration with technical ‘economic/livelihoods’ im- Rural/farming land/Man- bodies like the Pakistan pacts of sea level rise on grove forests Implement policies/pro- Council of Architects and the ‘fishing communities’ in Increase awareness and ca- grams to initiate ‘waste Town Planners (PCATP) and particular and the ‘fishing pacity of vulnerable com- water recycling’ and ‘reuse’ the Institute of Engineers industry’ at large munities to improve coping practices Pakistan (IEP) publish ‘de- and response mechanisms sign guidance’ for archi- – recommended at least tects and developers to one model ‘community reduce the risk of overheat- flood plan’ each for settle- ing and formulate relevant ments in slums/coastal fish- policies and procedures ing villages/rural land Assess gaps and develop Evaluate requirements for comprehensive implemen- ‘flood protection’ projects tation plans for strengthen- such ‘embankments’/tidal ing the ‘health emergency surge barriers response’ systems – health/emergency/trauma Assess gaps and develop facilities comprehensive implemen- tation plans for strengthen- ing the ‘emergency response’ systems – health/emergency/trauma facilities, fire services, law and order services (E.g. ‘safe shelters’) etc. – ‘evac- uation plans’ and required procedures and facilities site capacity and willingness to as- and translating them into marking The approach to climate change sume that role effectively. An over- physical jurisdictions (risk zones) adaptationplanningin London and whelming task but a requirement and assessing risks to the people Bangkok has been to identify partic- that is both imperative and urgent. and assets located within. This ular sectors that are at risk and de- would require a willingness and ca- velop plans to address each of When we progress to the technical pacity to invest in research and gen- these, and withthe delegation of re- and procedural aspects of climate erate and work with data on a sponsibility to appropriate agencies. change adaptation than the first regular basis. Sector based ap- Thisrequires an effective system of step is of mapping the tasks at hand proaches is one way of tackling the oversight and control, andrelies on starting with a mapping of exposed task as has been done for example these agents having sufficient finan- and vulnerable people and assets. It in London (UK) and Bangkok (Thai- cial and technicalcapacity to make would be a task that would require land). the appropriate investments andin- working with probabilities, trends terventions. However this again

64 brings us to the fundamental chal- tions, KW&SB, SEPA, emergency re- face and the capacities and re- lenge facing Karachi City and that is sponse agencies etc. At the other sponses of governments and com- of a disorganized, ill-coordinated in- level, initiatives at the city level for munities adapt to changing stitutional and governance frame- obtaining optimal results have to scenarios. We need to take the first work with substantial capacity dovetail with a clearly mapped out step. The scope of this Study could deficits. National Adaptation Program for not allow going into the deeper Action (NAPA). Here again, an op- strategic aspects such as a detailed Some key sectors that can be identi- portunity exists to plug the gaps in insight into critical vulnerabilities, fied in Karachi may include water the Climate Change Policy as it re- the larger policy and governance as- and sanitation, drainage, housing lates to the urban context and shift pects as they relate to climate and land use, transportation and focus on a vitally important national change adaptation and identifica- emergency response – emergency growth priority – promoting and tion of key stakeholder, institutions medicine, health care, fire services, sustaining vibrant urban growth in and their possible roles and respon- law and order etc. What is needed Pakistan. Critically important would sibilities. That work can be left for a is the initiation of a process of insti- be provision of financing options for Strategy document. The list of ac- tutional reforms within these sec- implementing actions. tions identified can be considered tors where a new paradigm requires as some end goals – for us the most to be considered that accommo- The challenges are many but more critical aspect relates more to devel- dates sharing of roles and responsi- delayed the action, the more diffi- oping willingness, a consensus and a bilities in terms of financing and cult it will get. Developing a climate strategy to achieve the end goal- provisioning of critical civic services change adaptation strategy is not sand that can be the focus of hope- between the public and private sec- an end in itself. It is more in the na- fully a comprehensive climate tors and communities. ture of a journey that would evolve change adaptation strategy for as the science around it evolves, Karachi City. While a leading role has to be new technological innovations sur- played by government institutions in implementing strategies for cli- mate change adaptation, success and resilience can only be achieved if all sectors of the urban sphere right down to the household level are involved and have a role mapped out for them. While the city government should ideally be taking the lead coordinating role, important responsibilities in provid- ing critical research, administration and service provision support will have to be provide by agencies such as NDMA, PDMA, SUPARCO, NIO, Sunset at Karachi coast Met Department, academic institu- Mohammad Arshad, Shehri-CBE

65 www.shehri.org