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Upturn in the Shipping Industry, Sustained Profit Recovery, Maintain

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Upturn in the Shipping Industry, Sustained Profit Recovery, Maintain 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Company Report: Sinotrans Shipping (00368 HK) Spencer Fan 范明 究 (86755) 2397 6686 Equity Research 公司报告： 中外运航运 (00368 HK) [email protected] 18 April 2018 Upturn[Table_S ummaryin the] Shipping Industry, Sustained Profit Recovery, Maintain “Accumulate” 航运景气仍向上，盈利复苏可延续，维持“收集” 2017 results were in line. Revenue rose 19.6% YoY to US$1,006 mn, while 公 [Table_Rank] shareholders’ profit reversed from a loss to US$32.27 mn. Continued Rating: Accumulate Maintained 司 recovery of dry bulk freights was the main reason for profit reversal. 报 Dry bulk shipping industry likely to sustain recovery. Due to insufficient 评级： 收集 (维持) 告 building orders from the past 3 years, we estimate supply growth of the industry in 2018/2019 to be 2.0%/1.5%, outperforming Clarksons' projected Company Report 6[Table_Price-18m TP目标价] : HK$2.36 demand growth of 3.8%/3.0%. Iron ore imports from China are expected to Revised from 原目标价: HK$2.50 stay robust. The Company is expected to maintain its 80%/20% dry bulk capacity for price locked-in/trade-on-spot. We estimate 2018 revenue from Share price 股价： HK$2.040 the dry bulk segment to grow at around 16.5% YoY. Sino-U.S trade war should have little impact on container income. The Stock performance Company operates intra-Asia routes only; volume has been stable due to 股价表现 complimentary features of trade lines. As average box price has stabilized, [Table_QuotePic] we expect Sinotrans Shipping's container revenue to grow 4.1% YoY in 2018. % of return 60.0 LNG JV launched in 2018 and profit may reach US$30 mn/year by 2020. 50.0 证 By 1Q18, two LNG carriers had been delivered and put into operation for the 40.0 券 告 Yamal project, with the remaining three LNG carriers to be delivered in 1Q19. 30.0 Accordingly, each vessel may contribute US$6 mn/year before-tax profit. 20.0 研 报 10.0 Adjust TP to HK$2.36 and maintain "Accumulate" rating. Synergy with 究 究 0.0 CMES could be a catalyst for Sinotrans Shipping's share price. The 报 Company's valuation has a high safety margin against its net book value, with (10.0) 研 upward potential. Our TP reflects 0.66x/0.65x/0.64x 2018-2020 PBR. (20.0) 告 Apr/17 Jul/17 Oct/17 Jan/18 Apr/18 券 HSI index Sinotrans Shipping Equity Research Report 2017 年业绩符合预期。公司收入同比升 19.6%至 10.06 亿美元，股东净利扭亏至 3,227 证 万美元。公司实现扭亏为盈主因是干散货航运市场运价出现的持续性改善所致。 [Table_PriceChange] [Tab 干散货运输大概率继续复苏。考虑过去 3 年较少的造船订单量，我们预计行业 2018/2019 Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 股价变动 个月 个月 年 1 3 1 年运力供给增速为 2.0%/1.5%，好于克拉克森预测的 3.8%/3.0%需求增速。同时，我们预 le_I 计国内的进口铁矿石量将维持强劲。公司预计维持其自有船队在锁价/即期市场 80%/20% Abs. % (14.0) (8.2) 12.8 绝对变动 % 航nfo1 运力的配置。我们预计 2018 年干散货分部收入同比增长 16.5%。 Rel. % to HS Index (10.1) (2.4) (13.6) 相对恒指变动 % 运 中美贸易战对集运收入影响较小。公司集运航线均在亚洲，由于货源属于互补型，货量一 ] Avg. share price（HK$） 2.3 2.3 2.1 物 直保持稳定。由于单箱运价已经稳定，我们预测中外运航运 2018 年集运收入同比升 4.1%。 平均股价（港元） 流 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 液化天然气运输业务于 2018 年开启，预计 2020 年开始年均可贡献 3,000 万美元利润。 行 截至 2018 年 3 月，亚马尔天然气项目的 2 艘冰级船已经交付并投入使用，另外 3 艘预计 业 将于 2019 年一季度交付。据悉，每艘船每年可贡献公司税前利润约 600 万美元。 调整目标价至 2.36 港元并维持“收集”评级。我们认为公司与招商轮船间的协同效应有望成 ShippingLogistics Sector & 为公司股价的催化剂。考虑净资产账面价值具备较高安全边际，公司的估值水平具备进一 步上行空间。我们的目标价对应 0.66 倍、0.65 倍以及 0.64 倍的 2018 至 2020 年市净率。 Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE [Tab 年结Profit ] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (US$ m) (US$ m) (US$) (△ %) (x) (US$) (x) (US$) (%) (%) le_I nfo2 2016A 841 (230) (0.058) n.a. (4.5) 0.448 0.6 0.005 1.9 (12.0) 2017A 1,006 32 0.008 n.a. 32.6 0.455 0.6 0.004 1.5 1.8 中] 中 2018F 1,120 43 0.011 37.5 23.7 0.454 0.6 0.003 1.3 2.4 外 2019F 1,212 56 0.014 27.3 18.6 0.463 0.6 0.004 1.6 3.1 外 运 2020F 1,311 63 0.016 14.3 16.3 0.472 0.6 0.005 1.8 3.4 运 航输 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 3,992.1 Major shareholder 大股东 Sinotrans & CSC 68.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 8,143.9 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 31.8 运 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 8,441.8 FY18 Net gearing (%) FY18 净负债/股东资金 (%) net cash 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 2.730/1.570 FY18 Est. NAV (HK$) FY18 每股估值（港元） 3.2 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Sinotrans Shipping (00368Sinotrans HK) Shipping See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 8 [Table_PageHeader]Sinotrans Shipping (00368 HK) Sinotrans Shipping’s (“the Company”) 2017 results were in line with expectations. In 2017, the Company recorded total revenue of US$1.006 bn, up 19.6% YoY. 2017 shareholders' profit was US$32.271 mn, reversing] 1 r a fromM t a lossh g ofi US$R _ 229.579e l b mna T [ in 2016. Sinotrans Shipping announced final dividend of US$38 cents per share, corresponding to a 47.6% dividend payout ratio, higher than our expectation. This move demonstrated the management's confidence on Sinotrans Shipping's future cash flow to some extent. Based on calculations, the Company recorded 2H17 shareholders' profit of US$24 mn, benefiting from continued recovery of the dry bulk shipping market. We believe that the global shipping market, represented by dry bulk shipping and container shipping, bottomed out after 2016. Trending from the recovery in 2017, BDI is still in its early stages of recovery and Sinotrans Shipping's profitability will enhance. 18 April 2018 Figure-1: BDI Component Indexes Performance Figure-2: BDI and the Company's Breakeven Level BCI: Capesize BPI: Panamax BDI BSI: Supramax BSI: Handysize 2,500 4,000 2,000 3,500 3,000 1,500 2,500 2,000 1,000 1,500 Sinotrans Shipping's breakeven level 1,000 500 ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ 500 0 0 Source: The Baltic Exchange, Guotai Junan International. Source: The Baltic Exchange, the Company, Guotai Junan International. The dry bulk segment improved amid rising shipping freights, mixed with a well-structured vessel portfolio. The segment’s 2017 revenue grew 32.7% YoY to US$489.1 mn, slightly lower than our expectation. Average age of self-owned vessels reduced from 6.38 years in 2016 to 6.20 years at the end of 2017, indicating the Company’s high efficiency in optimizing fleet portfolio. Average daily charter hire/time charter equivalent (“TCE”) rate of self-owned vessels was US$10,458, up 60.4% (00368 HK) YoY. By March 2018, Sinotrans Shipping’s dry bulk fleet’s deadweight tonne ("DWT") capacity totaled 6.64 mn tonnes, of which, 50% capacity was chartered in. Regarding the remaining 50% of self-owned vessels, Sinotrans Shipping expected 80% of the self-owned capacity to be price locked-in for 2018, while these locked-in freights guarantees relatively stable profit margins. In 中外运航运 our opinion, locked-in shipping prices (over spot market average) guarantees Sinotrans Shipping’s stable margins, while the flexible fleet structure also allows the Company to achieve a certain amount of exposure to arbitrage activities in the spot. So far, Sinotrans Shipping's dry bulk operating structure and strategy are forward-looking, and we expect the segment's revenue to increase 16.5% YoY in 2018 amid an overall upturn in industry trend. Sinotrans Shipping Table-1: Dry Bulk Fleet Delivery and Capacity Breakdown of Sinotrans Shipping as at March 31, 2018 Sinotrans Shipping's Fleet: Self-owned Chartered-in Controlled Vessels Orderbook No. DWT(‘000) TEU No. DWT(‘000) TEU No. DWT (‘000) TEU Capesize 9 1,609 - 1 179 - 10 1,788 - 0 Panamax 11 908 - 28 2,201 - 39 3,109 - 0 Handy & Handymax 16 852 - 16 888 - 32 1,740 - 6 Dry Bulk Carriers 36 3,369 - 45 3,268 - 81 6,637 - 6 Container vessels 14 221 16,733 17 360 25,632 31 581 42,365 0 LNG 1 96 - - - - 1 96 - 4 Total vessels 51 3,686 16,733 62 3,628 25,632 113 7,314 42,365 10 Source: the Company. Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 8 [Table_PageHeader]Sinotrans Shipping (00368 HK) After bottoming out in 2017, the dry bulk shipping market might continue to recover gradually in 2018. We believe that Sinotrans Shipping will continue to benefit from industry recovery in 2018. Benefiting from] order1 r digestiona M t h andg i vesselR _ scrappinge l b a T [ over the past 3 years, the ratio of orders-on-hand/existing capacity had reached a historical low (7.0%) of the dry bulk shipping industry in March 2018. Due to the slow pace of vessel delivery, we expect 2018/2019 dry bulk shipping capacity YoY growth to be 2.0%/1.5%. Considering the upcoming launch of the 2019 and 2020 Ballest Water Convention and tightened regulations of using low-sulfur fuel, we expect the dry bulk shipping industry's capacity growth to be more restrained after 2018. On the other hand, benefiting from global economic growth, we estimate 2018/2019 dry bulk shipping demand growth to be 3.8%/3.0%, exceeding growth from the supply side.
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