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Edward Crawley

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Edward Crawley Synopsis of the Results of the Ed Crawley March 2010 1 Why We Explore • More tangible benefits: – Exploration Preparation – Credible plans for science – Technology for space and Earth – Economic development and industrial capability • Less tangible benefits – U.S. leadership of international ventures – Engagement of the public – Inspiration of the youth, and excitement about STEM 2 A Space Faring Civilization • We explore to chart a path for human expansion into the solar system. • Mars should be the ultimate destination for that exploration in the inner solar system • Staying on Mars, and extending human civilization within the solar system should be the ultimate goal. • This will require a lengthy commitment. • But it is time to begin. These goals should drive destinations and systems 3 Evaluation Measures Evaluation Measure Traceability Criteria Space VSE GES OSTP Act 2004 2007 2009 Exploration Preparation ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Capable systems and ops for robust exploration beyond LEO Technology Innovation ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Enable new modes of exploration and leadership in innovation Science Knowledge ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Aligned with goals of scientific community Expanding Human ✓ ✓ Sustained human presence off Civilization planet, and protection of Earth Public Engagement ✓ ✓ Motivate and inspire; Societal benefits, regular new accomplishments Economic Expansion ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Growing profitable industrial base and commercial engagement Global Partnership ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Leverage & expand Intl partnerships 4 Evaluation Measures(2) Evaluation Measure Traceability Criteria Space VSE GES OSTP Act 2005 2007 2009 Schedule & Programmatic ✓ Robustness capability on Risk schedule of initial deployment Mission Profile Safety ✓ Challenges to achieving crew Challenges and overall mission safety Workforce Impacts ✓ ✓ Critical skills and workforce impact Programmatic Sustainability ✓ ✓ ✓ Keeping program support, governmental coordination, contractual implications Life Cycle Cost ✓ ✓ Affordability Target – Operational costs For each measure, a scale of -2, -1, 0, 1, 2 was created with associated rubrics 5 High Level Decision Evolution of the Committee ISS Moon Moon Starting Point Flexible Flexible ISS Path Path Mars Mars Flexible Path Moon Moon ISS Mars ISS Mars Flexible Flexible Moon Path Path 6 Key Questions to Guide a Plan for Human Spaceflight 1. What is the phase out plan of the Shuttle? 2. What is the future of the ISS? 3. Should the government developed launch system be based on NASA/Shuttle heritage or an EELV heritage systems? 4. How should crew be carried to LEO (ISS in particular)? 5. What is the strategy for exploration beyond LEO? Plus implicitly, what is the budget level Fix performance and budget level, use schedule as independent variable Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee 7 Mass, Energy & Time Considerations Flexible Path Lunar Mars Surface of Mars Martian Moons Mars Flyby Near Earth Objects Earth Sun Lagrange Lunar Points Surface Lunar Orbit Earth Moon Lagrange Points Increasing Mission Duration (Days) (Days) DurationDurationMissionMission Increasing Increasing Increasing Mass LowLowininorbit( orbit( Earth Earth mt) mt) Mass Mass Increasing Increasing 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Total Mission Change in Velocity from Low Earth Orbit (Kilometers/sec) 8 Exploration Strategy: Flexible Path to Mars and Moon Goal – Understand how to live and work in free space under the conditions we will meet on the way to Mars, gather science knowledge and support science operations A Flexible Path of Human and Robotic Exploration: • Crewed exploration missions to many places in the inner solar system • Orbit planets with deep gravity wells, but do not land on the surface • Rendezvous with small planetary bodies such as NEOs and Mars’ moon Phobos • Tele -robotically explore and sample planetary surfaces A fundamentally new mode of human exploration, in close cooperation with robotics NEOs L Sun - Earth Moon 2 L L 2 4 L 1 Mars L 5 Earth Phobos L 3 & Deimos Sun - Earth L 1 Venus Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee 9 Value Proposition for Flexible Path Destination Public Science Human Exploration Engagement Research Preparation Lunar Return to Moon, Demo of human 10 days beyond Beyond LEO shakedown Flyby/Orbit “any time we want” robotic operation radiation belts Earth Moon “Onramp to the inter- Ability to service ES 21 days beyond Ops at potential fuel L1 planetary highway” L2 s/c at EM L1 the belts depot Earth Sun First human in “deep Ability to service ES 32 days beyond Potential servicing, test L2 space” or “Earth L2 s/c at ES L2 the belts airlock escape” Earth Sun First human “in the Potential for Earth/Sun 90 days beyond Potential servicing, test L1 solar wind” science the belts in -space hab NEO’s “Helping protect the Geophysics, 190-220 day, Encounters with small planet” Astrobiology, Sample similar to Mars bodies, sample handling, return transit resource utilization Mars Flyby First human “to Human robotic 440 days, similar Robotic ops, test of Mars” operations, sample to Mars out and planetary cycler concepts return? return Mars Orbit Humans “working at Mars surface sample 780 days, full trip Joint robotic/human Mars and touching return to Mars exploration and surface bits of Mars” ops, sample testing, Mars Moons Humans “landing on Mars moons’ sample 780 days, full Joint robotic/human another moon” return rehearsal Mars surface and small body exploration exploration Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee 10 Timelines of the Three Less Constrained Lunar Options Option 3 Variant: With Technology and ISS Extension Lunar Flights to the International Space Station Flights in low - Earth orbit Landing 2010 2020 2030 Shuttle Ares I + Orion Ares V Option 5B: Flexible Path – EELV Heritage Moon Earth NEO Mars Lunar Flights to the International Space Station Orbit Escape Flyby Landing 2010 2020 2030 Shuttle Commercial Crew to low – Earth orbit EELV Derived 11 Development and Ops Cost Phasing: Lunar vs. Flexible Surface Systems Lander DDT&E $ Booster Capsule In space elements Moon Flexible Path Time In space elements Booster Surface Systems Capsule DDT&E $ Lander Flexible Path Moon Time • 2010’s – operateIn space the elements ISS, build the deep space systems Booster Surface Systems Lander •$ 2020’s – operateCapsule the deep space systems, build DDT&E the planetary systems Plus Ops • 2030’s – operate the planetary systems 12 Flexible Path Moon Time.
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