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Commercial Space Transportation QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT Featuring the launch results from the 4th quarter 2003 and forecasts for the 1st quarter 2004 and 2nd quarter 2004 1st Quarter 2004 United States Department of Transportation • Federal Aviation Administration Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation 800 Independence Ave. SW • Room 331 Washington, D.C. 20591 First Quarter 2004 Quarterly Launch Report 1 Introduction The First Quarter 2004 Quarterly Launch Report features launch results from the fourth quarter of 2003 (October-December 2003) and launch forecasts for the first quarter of 2004 (January-March 2004) and second quarter of 2004 (April-June 2004). This report con- tains information on worldwide commercial, civil, and military orbital space launch events. Projected launches have been identified from open sources, including industry references, company manifests, periodicals, and government sources. Projected launches are subject to change. This report highlights commercial launch activities, classifying commercial launches as one or both of the following: • Internationally-competed launch events (i.e., launch opportunities considered available in principle to competitors in the international launch services market) • Any launches licensed by the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation of the Federal Aviation Administration under 49 United States Code Subtitle IX, Chapter 701 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch Act) Contents Fourth Quarter 2003 Highlights . .2 Vehicle Use . .3 Commercial Launch Events by Country . .4 Commercial vs. Non-commercial Launch Events . .4 Payload Use . .5 Payload Mass Class . .5 Commercial Launch Trends . .6 Appendix A: Fourth Quarter 2003 Orbital Launch Events . .A-1 Appendix B: First Quarter 2004 Projected Orbital Launch Events . .B-1 Appendix C: Second Quarter 2004 Projected Orbital Launch Events . .C-1 Cover: An Atlas 3B, marketed by International Launch Services, sends UHF F11, the last satellite of the UHF constellation, on its way to geosynchronous orbit on December 17, 2003 from Cape Canaveral Spaceport, Florida. The UHF satellites are operated by the U.S. Department of Defense. First Quarter 2004 Quarterly Launch Report 2 Fourth Quarter 2003 Highlights Scaled Composites' SpaceShipOne reusable suborbital launch vehicle completed four unpowered glide flights after separation from the White Knight carrier aircraft during the fourth quarter of 2003. Following those tests, the vehicle successfully completed its first powered flight on December 17, 2003, becoming the first privately developed vehicle to break the sound barrier. Space Adventures signed two new space tourists on December 4 to take ten-day trips to the International Space Station (ISS) aboard a Soyuz spacecraft in October 2004 and in 2005. The company is also pro- moting two additional Soyuz flight opportunities over the next three years. Lockheed Martin started working on the US$200 million refurbishment of the SLC 3E pad at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB), California, for the Atlas 5 program. The pad should be complete in 2005. Building of a Soyuz launch pad at the Kourou, French Guiana, launch site, which was to begin in early 2004, hit a snag in late December. Some of the costs to operate the Ariane 5 and to build a Soyuz launch pad were too much for some European Space Agency (ESA) partners. The SpaceX Falcon launch vehicle was unveiled to the public in Washington, DC on December 4. The maiden launch of the vehicle will be made from VAFB in early 2004, carrying the Air Force's TacSat 1 satellite. FAA/AST notified XCOR Aerospace in October that its application for a commercial space launch license has been deemed "sufficiently complete." The notification started a 180-day process for AST to make a license determination. XCOR is the first RLV company to reach this milestone. The Air Force awarded a $560 million contract to Lockheed Martin on October 21 to conduct seven Atlas 5 Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle launches that were previously awarded to Boeing. The transfer is part of an Air Force penalty against Boeing for misuse of Lockheed Martin EELV contract bidding documents. China became the third nation, following the former Soviet Union and the United States, to launch a human into space on October 15. China's Shenzhou 5 carried Lt. Col Yang Liwei through 14 orbits before returning to Earth on October 16. Boeing-led Sea Launch approved a plan in October to offer a Land Launch service using a vehicle sim- ilar to the Zenit 3SL launched from Baikonur, Kazakhstan. The Land Launch version will provide about 50 percent less capacity than the Zenit 3SL due to the difference in latitude. Andrews Space was awarded an extension to its original US$2.9 million Alternate Access to Station con- tract with NASA on October 24. Andrews has designed a Commercial Science and Logistics Vehicle, which would be able to carry cargo to and from the ISS. Later in the quarter, the company won two con- tracts from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) relating to the Force Application and Launch from CONUS (FALCON) Technology Demonstration program leading to the planned devel- opment of a horizontal-take-off small launch vehicle. Brazil and the Ukraine signed a long-term agreement on October 23 to cooperate in space research, including the launch of Cyclone vehicles from Brazil's Alcantara launch site. The Cyclone project, includ- ing building a launch pad, will cost about US$280 million. The first launch is planned for 2006. Brazilian and Russian accident investigators have concluded that the explosion of Brazil's VLS rocket that killed 21 people at Alcantara on August, 22, 2003, was likely caused by an electrical discharge in a solid rocket motor rather than a design flaw. First Quarter 2004 Quarterly Launch Report 3 Vehicle Use (October 2003 – June 2004) Figure 1: Fourth Quarter 2003 Figure 2: First Quarter 2004 Figure 3: Second Quarter 2004 Total Launch Vehicle Total Projected Total Projected Use Launch Vehicle Use Launch Vehicle Use USA (22%) USA (38%) USA (37%) Atlas 2 1 Atlas 2 1 Atlas 2 3 Atlas 3 1 Atlas 3 1 Delta 2 3 Delta 2 1 Delta 2 1 Falcon 1 Titan 2 1 Taurus 1 Titan 4B 1 CHINA (5%) CHINA (28%) Long March 1 Long March 5 EUROPE (8%) Ariane 5 1 INDIA (6%) EUROPE (5%) 1 PSLV 1 Ariane 5 MULTI. (15%) 2 JAPAN (6%)* Zenit 3SL MULTI. (11%) H 2A 1 Zenit 3SL 2 RUSSIA (38%) Dnepr 1 RUSSIA (39%) RUSSIA (42%) Proton 3 Proton 2 Cyclone 1 Soyuz 2 Soyuz 1 Proton 4 1 Strela Volna 1 Soyuz 3 Rockot 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 *This particular launch event ended in failure when an H 2A solid booster did not separate properly. Total = 18 Total = 13 Total = 19 Figures 1-3 show the total number of orbital launches (commercial and government) of each launch vehicle and resulting market share that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2003 and that are projected for the first and second quarters of 2004. These launches are grouped by the country in which the primary vehicle manufacturer is based. Exceptions to this grouping are launches performed by Sea Launch, which are designated as multinational. Note: Percentages for these and subsequent figures may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding of individual values. First Quarter 2004 Quarterly Launch Report 4 Commercial Launch Events by Country (October 2003 – June 2004) Figure 4: Fourth Quarter 2003 Figure 5: First Quarter 2004 Figure 6: Second Quarter 2004 Commercial Launch Projected Commercial Projected Commercial Events by Country Launch Events by Launch Events by Country Country USA USA 33% (1) USA Russia 29% (2) Russia 38% (3) 29% (2) 38% (3) Europe Russia 14% (1) 67% (2) Multinational Multinational 25% (2) 29% (2) Total = 3 Total = 8 Total = 7 Figures 4-6 show all commercial orbital launch events that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2003 and that are projected for the first and second quarters of 2004. Commercial vs. Non-commercial Launch Events (October 2003 – June 2004) Figure 7: Fourth Quarter 2003 Figure 8: First Quarter 2004 Figure 9: Second Quarter 2004 Commercial vs. Projected Commercial Projected Commercial Non-commercial vs. Non-commercial vs. Non-commercial Launch Events Launch Events Launch Events Commercial Commercial Commercial 17% (3) 62% (8) 37% (7) Non-commercial Non-commercial Non-commercial 83% (15) 38% (5) 63% (12) Total = 18 Total = 13 Total = 19 Figures 7-9 show commercial vs. non-commercial orbital launch events that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2003 and that are projected for the first and second quarters of 2004. First Quarter 2004 Quarterly Launch Report 5 Payload Use (October 2003 – June 2004) Figure 10: Fourth Quarter 2003 Figure 11: First Quarter 2004 Figure 12: Second Quarter 2004 Payload Use Projected Payload Use Projected Payload Use Test 4% (1) Scientific TBA Scientific Comm. 13% (3) Comm. 10% (2) Comm. 9% (2) 30% (7) 52% (12) 40% (8) Rem. Sens. Rem. Sens. 9% (2) 4% (1) Scientific Other 15% (3) 4% (1) Nav. 4% (1) Nav. ISS 17% (4) 4% (1) Dev. Classified Rem. Sens. 4% (1) 4% (1) Crewed 15% (3) 4% (1) Classified Development Development ISS 5% (1) Meteorological ISS 13% (3) 13% (3) 10% (2) Classified 4% (1) 4% (1) 5% (1) Total = 23 Total = 23 Total = 20 Figures 10-12 show total payload use (commercial and government), actual for the fourth quarter of 2003 and that are projected for the first and second quarters of 2004. The total number of payloads launched may not equal the total number of launches due to multi-manifesting, i.e., the launching of more than one payload by a single launch vehicle. Payload Mass Class (October 2003 – June 2004) Figure 13: Fourth Quarter 2003 Figure 14: First Quarter 2004 Figure 15: Second Quarter 2004 Payload Mass Class Projected Payload Projected Payload Mass Class Mass Class Large Micro Small 9% (2) 9% (2) Large 10% (2) 13% (3) Unknown Micro 15% (3) Medium Intermediate Small 43% (10) 10% (2) 22% (5) 13% (3) Intermediate 22% (5) Large 35% (7) Medium Intermediate 13% (3) 30% (6) Medium Small 48% (11) 9% (2) Total = 23 Total = 23 Total = 20 Figures 13-15 show total payloads by mass class (commercial and government), actual for the fourth quarter of 2003 and projected for the first and second quarters of 2004.
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