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Wheat Facts and Futures 2009

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Wheat Facts and Futures 2009 I I Wheat Facts and Futures 2009 Draft November John Dixon Hans-Joachim Braun Petr Kosina Jonathan Crouch Editors I I CIMMYT® (www.cimmyt.org) is an internationally funded, not-for-profit organization that conducts research and training related to maize and wheat throughout the developing world. Drawing on strong science and effective partnerships, CIMMYT works to create, share, and use knowledge and technology to increase food security, improve the productivity and profitability of farming systems, and sustain natural resources. CIMMYT is one of 15 Future Harvest Centers of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) (www.cgiar.org). Financial support for CIMMYT’s work comes from the members of the CGIAR, national governments, foundations, development banks, and other public and private agencies. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) 2009. All rights reserved. The designations employed in the presentation of materials in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of CIMMYT or its contributory organizations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. CIMMYT encourages fair use of this material. Proper citation is requested. Correct citation: Dixon, J., H.-J. Braun, P. Kosina, and J. Crouch (eds.). 2009. Wheat Facts and Futures 2009. Mexico, D.F.: CIMMYT. Abstract: For nearly half a century, the international wheat breeding system has delivered improved high yielding varieties of wheat that created (along with rice) the Green Revolution and underpinned strong growth in wheat productivity in irrigated and rainfed, developed and underdeveloped, regions. Future priorities for breeding and complementary sciences will still include yield but will also diversify in response to changing market demands and growing environments, particulary in developing countries. It is argued that in the coming decades research on wheat quality characteristics will become increasingly important to plant breeders, whose work will be supported by the development of markers and advanced tools from molecular biology. Breeders will have to contend with increased heat stress and variability stemming from climate change, which is expected to create regional winners, as the northern high latitudes grow warmer and moister, and losers, as the sub-tropics and tropics increasingly suffer from heat stress and drought. Yield response of improved varieties in farmers’ fields depends to a very great degree on sustainable systems management, which also is essential to reverse the ongoing degradation of agricultural resources. Finally, the importance of expanding the systems lens from farmers to policy makers, and of linking farmers, commerce, science, and policy is illustrated for the rice-wheat farming systems of South Asia. ISBN: 978-970-648-170-2 AGROVOC descriptors: Wheats; Food production; Production factors; Production increase; Economic environment; Climatic change; Economic trends; Statistical data; Developing countries AGRIS category codes: E14 Development Economics and Policies E16 Production Economics Dewey decimal classification: 338.1601724 Printed in Mexico IIIII Table of Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................................................ v Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................ vii Overview: Transitioning Wheat Research to Serve the Future Needs of the Developing World ........................................................................................................................ 1 J. Dixon, H.-J. Braun, and J. Crouch Wheat Quality in the Developing World: Trends and Opportunities ......................................... 26 E. Meng, A. Loyns, and R.J. Peña Improved Discovery and Utilization of New Traits for Breeding ................................................ 42 J.H. Crouch, T.S. Payne, S Dreisigacker, H. Wu, and H.-J. Braun Climate Change: What Future Wheat? ............................................................................................... 52 D. Hodson and J. White Conservation Agriculture for Sustainable Wheat Production ...................................................... 62 K. Sayre and B. Govaerts Reality on the Ground: Integrating Germplasm, Crop Management, and ................................. 70 Policy for Wheat Farming System Development in the Indo-Gangetic Plains O. Erenstein Profiles of Wheat in Nine Countries .................................................................................................. 78 Selected Wheat Statistics ...................................................................................................................... 82 P. Aquino, F. Carrión, and P. Kosina IIIII III IVV Preface The cultivation of wheat (Triticum spp.) reaches far back into history. Wheat was one of the first domesticated food crops and for 8,000 years has been the basic staple food of major civilizations in Europe, West Asia, and North Africa. Today, wheat is grown on more land area—over 240 million ha—than any other commercial crop and continues to be the most important food grain source for humans. Annual global production exceeds 0.6 billion tons. World trade for wheat is greater than for all other crops combined, and it provides more nourishment for humans than any other food source. Wheat is being harvested somewhere in the world in any given month. The world population growth rate from 1993 to 2000 was approximately 1.5%, whereas the growth rate in wheat production from 1985 to 1995 was only 0.9% (CIMMYT 1996). If population growth continues at double the growth of wheat production, there will likely be serious difficulties in maintaining a wheat food supply for future generations. Recent fluctuations in wheat prices—in early 2008 the cost of a ton of wheat reached a record of nearly US$ 500—and the decline in global reserves of the grain underline the fragility of wheat supplies, particularly for the resource-poor. Predictions regarding the effects of global climate change on wheat suggest potential benefits for some areas and problems for others, but the major difficulties appear likely to be concentrated in developing country wheat lands. Less easy to predict but highly probable is the emergence and spread of new pests and pathogens in key wheat-growing regions. One example is the highly-virulent strain of wheat stem rust—known as Ug99—that appeared in eastern Africa a decade ago, has been sighted since in the Middle East, and could easily advance to South Asia soon on prevailing winds. Offsetting the challenges described above are new opportunities to develop, disseminate, and market more productive, stress tolerant, and nutritive wheat varieties, and to perfect and promote production practices based on the principles of conservation agriculture that boost yields while conserving or enhancing critical resources like soil and water. New tools like molecular markers and genetic engineering promise major benefits for wheat productivity in the medium term. Because agriculture is the foundation of rural development and economic growth, and given that wheat is such a prominent cereal in many regions, it is of critical importance to identify ways to restore wheat productivity growth in major producing areas around the globe. Greater wheat production could be achieved in several ways: by expanding wheat area, by making it more economically competitive with other crops, or by improving yield per unit area sown. This document lays out in relevant detail key issues and trends in wheat-based agriculture, with special emphasis on the developing world, as well as market and science prospects for addressing challenges to meet the world’s wheat demand. It is the latest in a series of periodic assessments of wheat research and development, particularly in developing regions. From the first Wheat Facts and Trends, which emulated in a modest way the World Development Report of the World Bank, CIMMYT has periodically issued new numbers in the series. IVV V This particular flagship edition highlights six themes of major significance to wheat research in developing countries. The potential role of wheat quality in breeding and markets is analyzed, and the conclusion drawn that quality characteristics will grow in importance as a breeding objective. In another chapter, the opportunities offered by modern molecular biological tools are illustrated. Conversely, breeders will have to contend with increased heat stress and variability stemming from climate change, which is expected to create regional winners, as the northern high latitudes become warmer and wetter, and losers, as the sub-tropics and tropics increasingly suffer from heat stress and drought. The possibility of raising yield potential notwithstanding, yield response of improved varieties in farmers’ fields depends to a very great degree on sustainable systems management, which also is essential to reverse the ongoing degradation of agricultural resources and is addressed in a section on conservation agriculture. The importance of expanding the systems lens from farmers to policy makers, and of linking farmers, commerce, science, and policy is illustrated in a chapter on the rice-wheat farming systems of South Asia. Finally, the publication depicts the diversity
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