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Scanned Image PhD Thesis on REVISITING THE RATIONAL ACTOR MODEL OF CRIME: A THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL SUPPLEMENT FROM KP, PAKISTAN Submitted By Ikram Ullah 05/PhD/PIDE/2011 Advisor: Dr. M. Idrees Khawaja Associate Professor, PIDE Co-Advisor: Dr. Nasir Iqbal Associate Professor, PIDE Department of Economics Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Islamabad 2018 Acknowledgements All glory is to Allah, the creator of all creatures, who is Omnipotent, Omnipresent and the source of all knowledge and wisdom. All praises to Almighty Allah, the most beneficent and merciful, who surely has the power and absolute control over everything. Who gives us the power to do, the sight to observe and the mind to think and judge, and by mercy of Allah I was able to complete my thesis. I was lucky, and no doubt it is a great honor for me, to become research student of Dr. Muhammad Idrees Khawaja and Dr. Nasir Iqbal. Their highly technical skilled knowledge, meaningful suggestion, insightful comments helped me on my approach to this work right from planning to its execution. Through their unique guidance, encouragement and moral support I touch the feet of success to submit my thesis. I have no words to express my gratitude to these great teachers. I will never forget their polite and friendly behavior. They are being a true inspiration for me in the field of Economics and particularly in the field of Behavioral Economics. Their consistent guidance at every step makes it possible for me to complete this research in time. I genuinely feel that without their sincere and ever available help, completion of this thesis will not have been possible. I am very thankful to Dr. Muslih ud Din, Dr. Ather Maqsood, Dr. Ijaz Ghani, Dr. Waseem Shahid Malik, Dr. Fazal Mehmood and Dr. Etzaz Ahmad who taught me during the course work and their lessons helped me a lot in writing my thesis. I am very grateful to HEC for providing necessary funding under TRGP scheme. I am also very pleased to the survey team: Irshad Muhammad, Jawad Khan, Muhammad Anas, and Subhan Ullah with special efforts from Yousaf Shah and Zakir Ullah. Besides these I am appreciative to Ilyas Muhammad, Najmus Saqib, Atta Ullah, Hamad Zamir and Gul Arzo for help in data collection. I am relieved to Khadim Ullah, Saqib Ahmad, Shakil Ahmad, Adalt Khan, Abdul Qadeer, Muhammad Azhar, Shahab Alam, Muhammad Zada, Muhammad Saqib, Syed Yawar Ali, Muhammad Zeeshan Ibrahim and Abdullah who helped me in data entry. I am gratified to the two jail superintendents who helped a lot and provided lists of ex-inmates and also to Police special branch officers Haidar Zaman Khan, Habib, Fazal Wadud, and Suleman for their help. SHO’s who helped in the identification of addresses and contact numbers of Ex-inmates are also appreciative. I am grateful to some of the faculty members from other universities who helped the survey teams: Muhammad Farooq, Department of Statistics, University of Peshawar, i Dr. Wajid khan, Department of Management Studies, Muhammad Asaf Khan, Department of Management Studies, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan and Mr.Muhammad Asghar Khan, Department of sociology, University of Swat. At the end, I am also grateful to Paolo Vanin and Filippo Belloc - the two external reviewers – and Dr. Muhammad Arshad Khan whose deep insights and critical comments helped me improve the thesis a lot. Ikram Ullah ii Abstract The number and intensity of crimes in our society is increasing at such a rate that many small non- serious crimes are considered normal. Our minds -individually and collectively- are occupied by two types of thought process at each point in time. First, every one of us thinks and plans (legally or illegally) about how to get rich. The second thought that occupies our minds is how to safeguard ourselves and our belongings from being targeted by the criminals. The current research endeavor is an effort to understand the increasing trends of both of our concerns that have deep rooted connections with our personal, social and economic life. The study of crime in economics is not new. The principles of economics have been utilized to understand crime even before Adam Smith, but it was Becker (1968) who popularized the economist’s tool-kit for explaining crime. The economist’s tool-kit that developed after Becker considers the cost-benefit calculus of individuals contemplating to commit a criminal act as the most important element that can be manipulated -through the criminal justice system- to control crime and criminality in the society. The economists’ tool-kit however, by focusing on the criminal justice system variables, ignores other important influences such as individual differences, social structures and the structure of opportunities and setbacks faced by the individuals. While being within the scope of economics, this study argues that besides the criminal justice system variables, individual differences, social influences and the structure of opportunities and setbacks all are relevant factors for understanding crime and criminality. The theoretical arguments developed in this study are empirically tested by using three different and purposively collected data sets from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. The first data set is collected from university level students (n = 457) and is utilized for understanding crimes such as academic dishonesty, campus crimes and other relevant crimes. The second data set is collected from ex-prisoners (n = 325) of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa jails and is utilized for evaluating crimes such as violent crimes, property crimes and other crimes prevailing in this sub-sample. The third and final data set consists of university employees (n = 405) where relevant information on white- collar crimes, academic dishonesty and other related crimes are collected. The three data sets are analyzed using principle component and regression analysis most suited to the estimation of a count dependent variable. Besides Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models, the study also estimate and report results of ordinary least square regressions which serves iii to check robustness of the results. The results obtained from regression analyses are generally supportive of the theoretical implications of the model. More precisely, the results obtained from the regression analysis of the students’ sample reveals that personal morality, human and social capital are important predictors of academic dishonesty and other campus related crimes. Deterrence variables (both social and legal) are however found to have no influence on the crimes considered for the students’ sample. In contrast to the students’ sample, results of the ex-inmate’s sample reveal that human and social capital and deterrence variables all are important predictors of crimes committed by this sub group, but personal morality has no influence. Similarly, in the university employees’ sample, it is found that legal sanctions, morality, human capital and social capital are important predictors of illegal behavior. Results obtained from empirical analysis of the three sub-samples reveals that different crimes are sensitive to different sets of variables. Hence a one-size-fits-all approach for controlling crime in the country is not an appropriate policy. Rather controlling diverse crimes requires - besides a generic approach based on the criminal justice system - that policy needs to be tailored in accordance with the characteristics of crimes and the criminals. iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ACJS Awareness about the Criminal Justice System ACS Activity Scale ARAM Augmented Rational Actor Model ATM Automated Teller Machine BMI Business Monitor International CCTV Close Circuit Television CHRI Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative CP Central Prisons CSIS Center for Strategic and International Studies DJ District Jails DS Discrimination Scale FATA Federally Administered Tribal Area FBR Federal Board of Revenue GDP Gross Domestic Product GoP Government of Pakistan GPI Global Peace Index GST General Strain Theory GTI Global Terrorism Index HC Human Capital HRCP Human Rights Commission of Pakistan ICG International Crises Group IDPs Internally Displaced People ISPU Institute for Social Policy and Understanding JJ Johansen Co-Integration JL Judicial Lockups KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa MD Marital Status MS Morality Scale NCD National Crime Data OSAC Overseas Security Advisory Council of the United States v PATA Provincially Administered Tribal Area PBS Pakistan Bureau of Statistics PE Parents Education PeeE Perceived Anti-social behavior of Peers PPD Perceived Probability of Detection PPLS Perceived Probability of Legal Sanctions PPPS Perceived Probability of Personal Sanctions PPSS Perceived Probability of Social Sanctions PS Parenting Scale PSLS Perceived Severity of Legal Sanctions PSPS Perceived Severity of Personal Sanctions PSSS Perceived Severity of Social Sanctions RP Risk Preference SAS School Attachment and Quality Scale SAT Situational Action Theory SBP State Bank of Pakistan SC Social Capital SES Socio-economic Status SJ Sub Jails TIP Transparency International Pakistan TP Time Preference U-C Unemployment Crime Relationship UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime USIP United States Institute of Peace VECM Vector Error Correction Model WPB World Prison Brief vi LIST OF FIGURES Page Number Title Number 2.1 Reported crimes in Pakistan (1951-2016) 10 2.2 Trend in violent crimes (2011-2016) 11 2.3 Trends in terrorist incidents (2003-2016) 11 2.4 Trend in property crimes (2011-2016) 12 2.5 Currency in circulation (1974-2015) 13
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