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The Wind Features Associated with the Multiple Eyewall in Typhoon Bolaven
The Wind Features associated with the Multiple Eyewall in Typhoon Bolaven Seiji ORIGUCHI, Kazuo SAITO, Hiromu SEKO, Wataru Mashiko and Masaru KUNII Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0052, JAPAN E-mail: [email protected] 1. Introduction Typhoon ‘Bolaven’ passed the Okinawa Main Island at about 1200 UTC 26 August 2012, while moving northwestward. The surface observation data at Nago of Okinawa show that the rainfall intensity and surface wind speed in the typhoon’s central regions were smaller and weaker than those of the JMA’s operational forecast. Okinawa Meteorological Observatory held an unprecedented press conference before the approach of typhoon ‘Bolaven’ to take the greatest precautions for the local governments and inhabitants. However, severe damages did not actually occur. The radar images of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) show that the multiple eyewall structures of ‘Bolaven’ were clearly maintained for more than at least 24 hours without eyewall replacements. It is deduced that the structures of multiple eyewall affected the wind velocity and precipitation in the typhoon’s central region. In this study, the multiple eyewall structures and wind features were reproduced by the cloud-resolving ensemble simulation to investigate the relation between them. 2. Experimental settings and Multi-Eye Index A cloud resolving ensemble simulation with a horizontal resolution of 1 km, horizontal grids of 800×800, 60 vertical layers and 11 members was performed up to the forecast time (FT) of 24 hours from the initial time at 1800 UTC 25 August using the JMA nonhydrostatic model. The initial and boundary conditions for the cloud resolving ensemble simulation were taken from a mesoscale ensemble simulation with a horizontal resolution of 5 km. -
Topographic Influence on the Motion of Tropical Cyclones Landfalling on the Coast of China
OCTOBER 2016 C H E N A N D W U 1615 Topographic Influence on the Motion of Tropical Cyclones Landfalling on the Coast of China XIAOYU CHEN Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China LIGUANG WU Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, and State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China (Manuscript received 17 March 2016, in final form 10 August 2016) ABSTRACT A few recent numerical studies investigated the influence of a continent, which is much larger in size than islands, on the track of a landfalling tropical cyclone. It has been found that land surface roughness and temperature tend to make a tropical cyclone move toward the continent. In this study, the effect of the elevated terrain on the western part of mainland China on landfall tracks is examined through idealized numerical experiments, in which an initially axisymmetric vortex is embedded into a monsoon trough and takes a landfall track across China’s mainland. It is found that the effect of the elevated terrain on the western part of mainland China can enhance the southerly environmental flows in the low and midtroposphere, leading to an additional landward component of tropical cyclone motion, suggesting that forecasts for tropical cyclone tracks over land should take into consideration the change in thermal condition over the continent. -
Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans
3rd International Symposium Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans March 21–27, 2015 Santos, Brazil Table of Contents Welcome � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � v Organizers and Sponsors � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �vi Notes for Guidance � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �ix Symposium Timetable � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � x List of Sessions and Workshops � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � xiii Floor Plans � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �xiv Detailed Schedules � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1 Abstracts - Oral Presentations Keynote � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �77 Plenary Talks � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �79 Theme Session S1 Role of advection and mixing in -
SCIENCE CHINA Effects of Tide-Surge Interactions on Storm Surges Along
SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences • RESEARCH PAPER • doi: 10.1007/s11430-015-5251-y Effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surges along the coast of the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea XU JunLi1, ZHANG YuHong2, CAO AnZhou1, LIU Qiang2* & LV XianQing1 1 Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography (Ocean University of China), Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; 2 College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China Received August 27, 2015; accepted November 17, 2015 Abstract A two-dimensional coupled tide-surge model was used to investigate the effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surges along the coast of the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea. In order to estimate the impacts of tide-surge interactions on storm surge elevations, Typhoon 7203 was assumed to arrive at 12 different times, with all other conditions remaining constant. This allowed simulation of tide and total water levels for 12 separate cases. Numerical simulation results for Yingkou, Huludao, Shijiusuo, and Lianyungang tidal stations were analyzed. Model results showed wide variations in storm surge elevations across the 12 cases. The largest difference between 12 extreme storm surge elevation values was of up to 58 cm and occurred at Yingkou tidal station. The results indicate that the effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surge elevations are very significant. It is therefore essential that these are taken into account when predicting storm surge elevations. Keywords Storm surges, Astronomical tides, Tide-surge interactions, Typhoon 7203, Coupled tide-surge model Citation: Xu J L, Zhang Y H, Cao A Z, Liu Q, Lv X Q. -
4. the TROPICS—HJ Diamond and CJ Schreck, Eds
4. THE TROPICS—H. J. Diamond and C. J. Schreck, Eds. Pacific, South Indian, and Australian basins were a. Overview—H. J. Diamond and C. J. Schreck all particularly quiet, each having about half their The Tropics in 2017 were dominated by neutral median ACE. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condi- Three tropical cyclones (TCs) reached the Saffir– tions during most of the year, with the onset of Simpson scale category 5 intensity level—two in the La Niña conditions occurring during boreal autumn. North Atlantic and one in the western North Pacific Although the year began ENSO-neutral, it initially basins. This number was less than half of the eight featured cooler-than-average sea surface tempera- category 5 storms recorded in 2015 (Diamond and tures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Schreck 2016), and was one fewer than the four re- Pacific, along with lingering La Niña impacts in the corded in 2016 (Diamond and Schreck 2017). atmospheric circulation. These conditions followed The editors of this chapter would like to insert two the abrupt end of a weak and short-lived La Niña personal notes recognizing the passing of two giants during 2016, which lasted from the July–September in the field of tropical meteorology. season until late December. Charles J. Neumann passed away on 14 November Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies warmed con- 2017, at the age of 92. Upon graduation from MIT siderably during the first several months of 2017 in 1946, Charlie volunteered as a weather officer in and by late boreal spring and early summer, the the Navy’s first airborne typhoon reconnaissance anomalies were just shy of reaching El Niño thresh- unit in the Pacific. -
Ensemble Forecast Experiment for Typhoon
Ensemble Forecast Experiment for Typhoon Quantitatively Precipitation in Taiwan Ling-Feng Hsiao1, Delia Yen-Chu Chen1, Ming-Jen Yang1, 2, Chin-Cheng Tsai1, Chieh-Ju Wang1, Lung-Yao Chang1, 3, Hung-Chi Kuo1, 3, Lei Feng1, Cheng-Shang Lee1, 3 1Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, NARL, Taipei 2Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Chung-Li 3Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei ABSTRACT The continuous torrential rain associated with a typhoon often caused flood, landslide or debris flow, leading to serious damages to Taiwan. Therefore the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) during typhoon period is highly needed for disaster preparedness and emergency evacuation operation in Taiwan. Therefore, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (TTFRI) started the typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast ensemble forecast experiment in 2010. The ensemble QPF experiment included 20 members. The ensemble members include various models (ARW-WRF, MM5 and CreSS models) and consider different setups in the model initial perturbations, data assimilation processes and model physics. Results show that the ensemble mean provides valuable information on typhoon track forecast and quantitative precipitation forecasts around Taiwan. For example, the ensemble mean track captured the sharp northward turning when Typhoon Megi (2010) moved westward to the South China Sea. The model rainfall also continued showing that the total rainfall at the northeastern Taiwan would exceed 1,000 mm, before the heavy rainfall occurred. Track forecasts for 21 typhoons in 2011 showed that the ensemble forecast has a comparable skill to those of operational centers and has better performance than a deterministic prediction. With an accurate track forecast for Typhoon Nanmadol, the ability for the model to predict rainfall distribution is significantly improved. -
'State Visit-Plus' for Trump in China
BEIJING Your Beijing Bible • Insightful and interactive – real voices from the capital’s expat community • Issues, life and style • Culture, eating, nightlife and more Metro Beijing appears in the English edition of the Global Times here in Beijing, Monday to Friday. Nation InDepth Life Business Path out Common Plunder Dandong of poverty destiny & rescue angry at US 6 12-13 20 sanctions B1 www.globaltimes.com.cn VOLUME 9 • NO. 2432 • TUESDAY NOVEMBER 7, 2017 PRICE 2 YUAN Vigil for the victims A candlelight vigil is observed on Sunday following the mass shooting at the First Baptist Church in Sutherland Springs, Texas, that left 26 people dead (see stories on pages 3 and 10). Photo: AFP Chinese public keenly follows Asia trip Beidou navigation system to ‘outperform GPS by 2020’ ‘State visit-plus’ for dou Navigation Satellite Sys- By Liu Yang in Xichang and Zhang Hui in Beijing tem. Beidou will lead the world China used a single carrier and outperform the GPS sys- Trump in China rocket Sunday night to launch tem by around 2020 when two state-of-the-art satellites Beidou goes global, into space, marking the global Chinese space ex- 2 network expansion of its Bei- perts said. Global By Li Ruohan first foreign head of state to vis- communication on significant it China after the 19th National issues of common concern to Amid tremendous public curi- Congress of the Communist build a new consensus, en- osity over the visit of US Presi- Party of China. hance mutual understanding Inside dent Donald Trump, China is China and the US are and friendship, and promote pulling out all the stops in its working to ensure President bilateral relations in all spheres, Top News: Chinese fear rising US gun violence 3 preparations for the leader who Trump’s state visit is a “historic Zheng said. -
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Multi-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks from Geostationary Satellite Data
remote sensing Article Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Multi-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks from Geostationary Satellite Data Juhyun Lee 1, Jungho Im 1,* , Dong-Hyun Cha 1, Haemi Park 2 and Seongmun Sim 1 1 School of Urban & Environmental Engineering in Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan 44919, Korea; [email protected] (J.L.); [email protected] (D.-H.C.); [email protected] (S.S.) 2 Institute of Industrial Science in the University of Tokyo, A building, 4 Chome-6-1 Komaba, Meguro City, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +82-52-217-2824 Received: 25 November 2019; Accepted: 25 December 2019; Published: 28 December 2019 Abstract: For a long time, researchers have tried to find a way to analyze tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in real-time. Since there is no standardized method for estimating TC intensity and the most widely used method is a manual algorithm using satellite-based cloud images, there is a bias that varies depending on the TC center and shape. In this study, we adopted convolutional neural networks (CNNs) which are part of a state-of-art approach that analyzes image patterns to estimate TC intensity by mimicking human cloud pattern recognition. Both two dimensional-CNN (2D-CNN) and three-dimensional-CNN (3D-CNN) were used to analyze the relationship between multi-spectral geostationary satellite images and TC intensity. Our best-optimized model produced a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.32 kts, resulting in better performance (~35%) than the existing model using the CNN-based approach with a single channel image. -
Appendix 8: Damages Caused by Natural Disasters
Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Draft Finnal Report APPENDIX 8: DAMAGES CAUSED BY NATURAL DISASTERS A8.1 Flood & Typhoon Table A8.1.1 Record of Flood & Typhoon (Cambodia) Place Date Damage Cambodia Flood Aug 1999 The flash floods, triggered by torrential rains during the first week of August, caused significant damage in the provinces of Sihanoukville, Koh Kong and Kam Pot. As of 10 August, four people were killed, some 8,000 people were left homeless, and 200 meters of railroads were washed away. More than 12,000 hectares of rice paddies were flooded in Kam Pot province alone. Floods Nov 1999 Continued torrential rains during October and early November caused flash floods and affected five southern provinces: Takeo, Kandal, Kampong Speu, Phnom Penh Municipality and Pursat. The report indicates that the floods affected 21,334 families and around 9,900 ha of rice field. IFRC's situation report dated 9 November stated that 3,561 houses are damaged/destroyed. So far, there has been no report of casualties. Flood Aug 2000 The second floods has caused serious damages on provinces in the North, the East and the South, especially in Takeo Province. Three provinces along Mekong River (Stung Treng, Kratie and Kompong Cham) and Municipality of Phnom Penh have declared the state of emergency. 121,000 families have been affected, more than 170 people were killed, and some $10 million in rice crops has been destroyed. Immediate needs include food, shelter, and the repair or replacement of homes, household items, and sanitation facilities as water levels in the Delta continue to fall. -
Flood Hazard Mapping in an Urban Area Using Combined Hydrologic-Hydraulic Models and Geospatial Technologies
Global J. Environ. Sci. Manage. 5(2): 139-154, Spring 2019 Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management (GJESM) Homepage: https://www.gjesm.net/ ORIGINAL RESEARCH PAPER Flood hazard mapping in an urban area using combined hydrologic-hydraulic models and geospatial technologies B.A.M.Talisay*, G.R. Puno, R.A.L. Amper GeoSAFER Northern Mindanao/ Cotabato Project, College of Forestry and Environmental Science, Central Mindanao University, Musuan, Maramag, Bukidnon, Philippines ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Flooding is one of the most occurring natural hazards every year risking the lives and Article History: Received 12 August 2018 properties of the affected communities, especially in Philippine context. To visualize Revised 12 November 2018 the extent and mitigate the impacts of flood hazard in Malingon River in Valencia Accepted 30 November 2018 City, Bukidnon, this paper presents the combination of Geographic Information System, high-resolution Digital Elevation Model, land cover, soil, observed hydro-meteorological data; and the combined Hydrologic Engineering Center- Keywords: Hydrologic Modeling System and River Analysis System models. The hydrologic Geographic information system (GIS) model determines the precipitation-runoff relationships of the watershed and the Inundation hydraulic model calculates the flood depth and flow pattern in the floodplain area. Light detection and ranging The overall performance of hydrologic model during calibration was “very good fit” Model calibration based on the criterion of Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Model Efficiency, Percentage Bias and Root Mean Square Error – Observations Standard Deviation Ratio with the values of 0.87, -8.62 and 0.46, respectively. On the other hand, the performance of hydraulic model during error computation was “intermediate fit” using F measure analysis with a value of 0.56, using confusion matrix with 80.5% accuracy and the Root Mean Square Error of 0.47 meters. -
Collecting Remote Sensing Data • Analysis of the Satellite Data • Information Release • Improve the Efficiency of Decision Making and Cleaning
Introduction of Operational Marine Environmental Disaster Monitoring using Remote Sensing Data Bin Zou [email protected] Hyderabad,India,2016-3-8 National Satellite Ocean Application Service, China 1 OUTLINE 1. Who is NSOAS 2. The operational system --- oil spill --- sea ice, green tide --- typhoon --- Emergency monitoring Team 3. International cooperation 4. Summary 2 1. Who is NSOAS The National Satellite Ocean Application Service (NSOAS) was founded on Nov. 19th, 1998. It is a scientific research and operational service department under the State Oceanic Administration of China The main functions of NSOAS include: ---To make strategy and development program for Chinese oceanic satellites. ---To build up ground segment for Chinese oceanic satellites ---To fulfill scientific researches on oceanic satellite technology ---To be responsible for receiving, processing, distributing and application of oceanic satellite data. ---To carry out satellite marine monitoring system 3 北京站 三亚站 杭州站 三亚站 One Processing Center and three Station 5 China Ocean Satellite Plan & Status – HY-1A 2002.5.15 (Stop work) – HY-1B 2007.4.11 (Stop work in Feb. 2016 ) – HY-2A 2011.8.16 launch • For Ocean dynamic environment parameters ( Wind, SSH, SST ) • Sensor are ALT, SCA, MR, GPS, DORIS – HY-1C/1D (will be approved) • For Ocean color, SST, Coast zone • Sensor are COCTS ( Chinese ocean color and temperature scanner) ,CZI (Coast zone imager) – HY-3 • For pollution hazard, sea ice, ship, coast zone • Sensor are SAR, … chlorophy SST Water quality ll Green -
NASA's Aqua Satellite Sees Tropical Storm Haikui Make Landfall in China 8 August 2012
NASA's Aqua satellite sees Tropical Storm Haikui make landfall in China 8 August 2012 Typhoon Haikui weakened to a tropical storm just Center before landfall in China. Eight hours after landfall, NASA's Aqua satellite still showed a strong and organized tropical storm moving inland. China's National Meteorological Center (NMC) said that Tropical Storm Haikui, made landfall in Zhejiang province on August 8 at 3:20 a.m. local time (19:20 UTC or 3:20 p.m. EDT/U.S., August 7), about 140 miles (225 km) south of Shanghai. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's last official warning on Haikui was issued on August 8 at 0300 UTC (11 a.m. local time/Shanghai). At that time Haikui's maximum sustained winds were near 60 knots (69 mph/111.1 kmh) and it was located about 95 miles south of Shanghai, near 29.7 North latitude and 121.3 East longitude. It was moving to the northwest at 9 knots (10.3 mph/16.6 kmh). By 5 p.m. EDT Shanghai local time on August 8 Haikui was located near the city of Huzhou. NMC reported heavy rainfall with totals as high as 17 inches (434 millimeters) in Xiangshan, Taizhou, and Ninghai, all located in the southeast coastal province of Zhejiang. A visible image of Tropical Storm Haikui was captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument that flies onboard NASA's Aqua satellite on August 8, 2012 at 0520 UTC (1:20 a.m. EDT/1:20 p.m. Shanghai local time) after it made landfall south of Shanghai, China.