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Employing Commercial Satellite Communications Wideband Investment Options for the Department of Defense

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Employing Commercial Satellite Communications Wideband Investment Options for the Department of Defense EMPLOYING COMMERCIAL SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS WIDEBAND INVESTMENT OPTIONS FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Tim Bonds Michael G. Mattock Thomas Hamilton Carl Rhodes Michael Scheiern Philip M. Feldman David R. Frelinger Robert Uy with Keith Henry Benjamin Zycher Tim Lai David Persselin Project AIR FORCE R Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for Public release; distribution unlimited The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-96-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Employing commercial satellite communications : wideband investment options for the Department of Defense / Tim Bonds… [et al]. p. cm. MR-1192-AF Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-2827-8 1. Communications, Military—United States. 2. Artificial satellites in telecommunication—United States. 3. Broadband communications systems—United States. I. Bonds, Tim, 1962- UA943.E47 2000 358'.24'0973—dc21 00-038712 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. © Copyright 2000 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2000 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet: [email protected] PREFACE The Department of Defense (DoD) is considering increasing the amount of communications it owns and leases. Decisions on how much communications capacity to obtain, and how much will come from DoD-owned assets, will affect Air Force investments in new communications satellites. This report assesses military use of commercial wideband satellites by evaluating their effectiveness across several characteristics defined by the United States Space Command. The cost of buying or leasing commercial systems is then found and compared with the cost of buying military systems with commercial characteristics. The study was undertaken at the request of Headquarters, United States Air Force (SC), the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition (SAF/AQS), and Air Force Space Command (XP and SC). It is part of the Employing Commercial Communications task within Project AIR FORCE’s Aerospace Force Development Program. This research should be of interest to those concerned with obtaining satellite communications in the Air Force, the other military services, and the defense agencies. PROJECT AIR FORCE Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. iii iv Employing Commercial Satellite Communications Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Develop- ment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. CONTENTS Preface .......................................... iii Figures .......................................... ix Tables........................................... xiii Summary ........................................ xv Acknowledgments.................................. xxiii Acronyms ........................................ xxv Chapter One INTRODUCTION ............................... 1 DoD Demand for Communications and the Role of Commercial Satellites......................... 2 Meeting Military Criteria with Commercial Systems....... 3 DoD Demand Variance and Alternative Investment Strategies .................................. 4 Chapter Two DoD COMMUNICATIONS DEMAND PROJECTIONS ..... 5 Context....................................... 5 DoD Projections of Future Military Demand ............ 6 Chapter Three MEETING MILITARY DEMAND WITH COMMERCIAL SATELLITES: CONTACT AND EVALUATION........ 11 Context: International Commercial Communications Systems ................................... 11 Terrestrial Systems and Networks .................. 11 v vi Employing Commercial Satellite Communications Satellite Systems and Applications .................. 12 Satellite Alternatives and Evaluation Criteria ............ 17 Chapter Four CAN COMMERCIAL SYSTEMS MEET MILITARY CRITERIA? CAPACITY AND COVERAGE .................... 25 Criteria ....................................... 25 Capacity ...................................... 26 Summary Evaluation of Capacity .................... 33 Coverage ..................................... 35 Summary Evaluation of Coverage .................... 40 Chapter Five MILITARY THEATER USE OF COMMERCIAL SATELLITES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR FLEXIBILITY, INTEROPERABILITY, AND ACCESS AND CONTROL................................. 43 Military Theater Use of Commercial Satellites ........... 43 Military Theater Networks ....................... 43 Military Theater Interface with Commercial Systems ................................... 45 Operational Concepts for Transmitting Traffic Between Military Theaters and Global Commercial Networks.................................. 51 Flexibility ..................................... 54 Interoperability ................................. 57 Access and Control .............................. 60 Chapter Six DO COMMERCIAL SYSTEMS MEET THE MILITARY CRITERIA OF QUALITY OF SERVICE AND PROTECTION? ............................. 65 Quality of Service ............................... 65 Protection..................................... 69 Vulnerabilities of “Minimally Protected” Satellites to Jamming .................................. 71 Concepts to Mitigate Disruption of Commercial Satellite Communications ............................ 75 Evaluation Synthesis ............................. 83 Chapter Seven PRICES OF COMMERCIAL AND MILITARY CAPACITY ..... 85 Contents vii Commercial Market Providers and Products ............ 85 Commercial Market Prices ......................... 90 Chapter Eight VARIANCE IN MILITARY COMMUNICATIONS DEMAND .. 97 Demand Projections and National Security Strategy....... 97 Assessing the Effects of Contingencies on Demand ........ 99 Chapter Nine INVESTMENT STRATEGY ALTERNATIVES.............. 105 Determining an Economical Balance Between Buying and Short-Term Leasing .......................... 106 Dynamic Investment Strategies...................... 114 Approach ..................................... 115 Baseline Results ............................... 117 Effect of Order-Receipt Lag ....................... 122 Effect of Discount Rate and Price Drift ............... 126 Effect of Demand Variations ...................... 128 Chapter Ten CONCLUSIONS ................................ 129 Appendix A. STANDARD FREQUENCY DESIGNATIONS............. 133 B. CURRENT DoD COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITES ....... 135 C. GRAPHICAL METHOD FOR COMMUNICATIONS PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY ................. 137 References ....................................... 143 FIGURES S.1. Comparison of Projected Military Demand and Programmed Supply ...................... xvi 2.1. ERDB Projections of MILSATCOM Capacity Demands ................................. 7 2.2. Comparison of Projected Military Demand and Programmed Supply ......................... 10 3.1. Major Submarine Cables in Use and Under Development .............................. 13 3.2. Exemplar Satellite Beam Patterns ............... 16 4.1. Commercial Capacity Greatly Exceeds Military Demand .................................. 27 4.2. Positions of International Satellite Systems ........ 31 4.3. Projected Capacity of International Satellite Systems . 32 4.4. Capacity: Wideband Capacity Can Be Provided by a Number of Sources .......................... 34 4.5. Capacity: Coverage Required for Each Strategy Evaluated ................................. 35 4.6. Maximum International Satellite System Capacity Over DoD STEP Sites ......................... 37 4.7. Day-to-Day Capacity Can Help Cover Surge (1998) ... 39 4.8. Coverage: Polar Regions Are Not Covered by Commercial Wideband SATCOM ................ 41 5.1. Notional Military Theater Network .............. 44 5.2. A Communications Network ................... 46 5.3. Military and Military/Commercial Networks ....... 47 5.4. Options to Connect Theater Network with Global Networks ................................. 51 5.5. Flexibility ................................. 56 ix x Employing Commercial Satellite Communications 5.6. Interoperability: Ground Equipment Interoperability Is Needed for Bent-Pipe Satellites ............... 59 5.7. Access and Control .......................... 63 6.1. Quality of Service ........................... 69 6.2. Commercial Systems Do Not Meet the Protection Criterion .................................. 71 6.3. A Low-Elevation Satellite May Be Difficult to Jam .... 76 6.4. Transmitter Access to LEO Constellation Increases Linearly with Distance from Jammer ............. 78 6.5. Jam-Free Access Period ....................... 79 6.6. Visibility of LEO System in Teledesic Orbit ......... 80 6.7. Airborne
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