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Iran's Proxies Know Their Limits As Next Front Line of Showdown with US

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Iran's Proxies Know Their Limits As Next Front Line of Showdown with US UK £2 www.thearabweekly.com Issue 203, Year 5 EU €2.50 April 28, 2019 Muslims After Egypt’s Women in and the West referendum Sudan, Algeria protests Page 4 Page 13 Page 20 Iran’s proxies know their limits as next front line of showdown with US ► There are few indications that Iranian surrogates are willing to opt for military escalation specifically because of their realistic assessment of the option and, in many cases, their awareness of their increasing weaknesses. Mamoon Alabbasi ures, which include sanctions and terror designations, against Iranian proxies. London Even before the waivers expire, Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, xperts said Iran’s prox- Yemen, Syria and Iraq have been ies are unlikely to retaliate feeling the pain of sanctions. against US interests in the “Quantifying the strain on this E Middle East despite deci- network is difficult because Iranian sions by Washington to increase support is covert and beneficiaries pressure on Tehran. rarely discuss their finances but in- The Trump administration an- terviews with fighters, officials and nounced that sanctions waivers for analysts who track the issue made importation of Iranian oil would be the economic pain clear,” the New reduced to “zero level” after they York Times reported. expire May 2. While it remains unclear if the “The Trump administration and pain translates into a reversal of our allies are determined to sustain policy by Iran and its allies, there and expand the maximum eco- are few indications that Iranian sur- nomic pressure campaign against rogates are willing to opt for mili- Iran to end the regime’s destabilis- tary escalation specifically because ing activity threatening the United of their realistic assessment of the States, our partners and allies, and option and, in many cases, their security in the Middle East,” read a awareness of their increasing weak- White House statement April 22. nesses. “The president’s decision to In Iraq, more members of the eliminate all SREs (Significant Re- country’s Shia community are turn- duction Exceptions) follows the ing against Iran, which they blame designation of the Islamic Revo- for the Arab country’s woes. This Heated rhetoric. A Hezbollah supporter attends a rally in Beirut. (Reuters) lutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] as has led many in Iraq’s political class a Foreign Terrorist Organisation, to distance themselves from Teh- demonstrating the United States’ ran. but conditions in Syria are unlikely towards Riyadh and vowed to reach it attached unattainable conditions, commitment to disrupting Iran’s Hard-line Iraqi supporters of Iran to allow it to make any military es- “strategic” targets in Saudi Arabia such as an apology from Washing- terror network and changing the may be more concerned with keep- calation on Iran’s behalf. and the United Arab Emirates. ton, to such negotiations. regime’s malign behaviour,” the ing their positions of influence in- Hezbollah, under frequent Israeli Any strikes they could carry out Iranian Foreign Minister Moham- statement added. side Iraq — with Iranian help — than air strikes in Syria, is likely to seek are unlikely to be as strategic as mad Javad Zarif said he believes The United States said it would in engaging in a military confron- to continue its activities in Syria they describe them and would be that US President Donald Trump not sanction foreign governments tation with the United States. Bills and Lebanon but does not appear operations of opportunity rather does not want war with Iran but and businesses that have dealings in the Iraqi parliament that call for to be looking forward to engaging than dictated by retaliation against that the US president could be with the IRGC and its affiliates, a timetable for the withdrawal of Israel and much less the United increased pressure on Iran. In any lured into a conflict by hawks in his such as al-Quds Force. Neverthe- US troops from Iraq are unlikely to States in a full-blown war. case and despite their inflated administration. less, the United States imposed pass. Hezbollah’s intention could be rhetoric, the Houthis are wary of A realistic Zarif said his country’s sanctions on entities accused of In fact, the Iraqi government ap- inferred from its measured reaction provoking unwanted regional and immediate intent is not confron- aiding Lebanon’s Hezbollah evade pears ready to benefit from the ef- to Israel’s destruction of its tunnels international reactions as UN-spon- tation but sidestepping the sanc- Washington’s sanctions against the fect of the expiration of US waiv- on the Lebanese-Israeli border last sored talks on Yemen continue. tions. “There are always ways of Iran-backed group. ers by announcing that Baghdad is December. The issue of US waivers Iran itself appears aware that going around the sanctions. We Countries benefiting from the US ready to boost its oil output should may not be worth the risk of war military measures, such as blocking have a PhD in that area,” he told waivers are China, India, Turkey, the market need. Iraq, which relies that could weaken the group’s grip the Strait of Hormuz, are unrealis- Reuters. Greece, Italy, Japan, South Korea on oil exports for most of its reve- on the Lebanese government. tic threats meant for domestic con- and Taiwan. Iraq has a waiver on nues, also stands to benefit from oil Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi re- sumption. Furthermore, guessing Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy importing Iranian electricity and price hikes. bels are still battling the Saudi-led that effective escalation would not Managing Editor and Online Editor gas that will end in June. The regime of Syrian President coalition supporting the interna- be in its own interest, Tehran has of The Arab Weekly. In recent months, the United Bashar Assad owes its survival at tionally recognised Yemeni gov- signalled its readiness to “negoti- States has imposed punitive meas- least partially to help from Tehran ernment. They have fired missiles ate” with the United States, even if P2-3,6,10-11,14 Jordan’s disabled struggle for acceptance and opportunities in society Roufan Nahhas people,” he said, citing figures of the bled children. We need to do more,” Dubai and other places,” he added. everything alone. I can dress alone, Department for International Devel- he said. Sawalmeh was the first paraple- button my jacket alone, et cetera,” opment. Jordan’s people with disabilities gic to summit Mount Kilimanjaro said Nassar, who is married and par- Amman (PWD) society has helped many dis- in a wheelchair in 5 days, a feat he ticipates in sports, including swim- abled persons rise to be role models. undertook to raise awareness of the ming and basketball. Ali Sawalmeh ordan has made progress in First Jordanian paraplegic A notable case is Ali Sawalmeh, a rights of PWD. “Society around me has been so bettering the lives of people to summit Mount wheelchair marathon athlete who “My message was that, if you supportive and my family, too, but with disabilities but still needs Kilimanjaro in a wheelchair has become an inspiration to disa- dream, you can do things and that more effort is needed to integrate to introduce changes to facili- bled Jordanians. PWD deserve to be seen and heard PWD in the labour market. The J “My message was that, if you tate acceptance of the disabled and “I never thought of my disability and to have access to life like every- private sector needs to contribute improve their access to the job mar- dream, you can do things and as a barrier and wanted to change one else,” he said. more and give more job opportuni- ket. that PWD deserve to be seen the image people have of the disa- Anton Nassar became executive ties,” he said. Muhanad Azzeh, secretary-gen- and heard and to have access to bled. With determination and strong director of a morning television pro- There are more than 150 socie- eral of the Higher Council for the life like everyone else.” will, we (PWD) managed to over- gramme at Jordan Radio and Televi- ties and centres that care for people Affairs of Persons with Disabilities come the challenges and now the sion Corporation despite losing an with disabilities in Jordan. Their (HCD), which supports activities HCD President Prince Mired Raad society sees us as role models,” said arm in a car accident when he was common goal is to help PWDs gain that serve the disabled in Jordan, Zeid al-Hussein noted that more Sawalmeh, who works at Jordan’s 5 years old. acceptance and enjoy opportunities said there was still much work to do. than 500,000 disabled people under Public Security Department. “It was so challenging for a in society. “We estimate that 11-15% of the the age of 18 lack proper education. “I love sports and I love challeng- 5-year-old child to lose one major population suffers from disabilities, “Jordan does not have schools that es. I have been grabbing advanced part of his body but, little by little, Roufan Nahhas is a journalist based amounting to more than 1 million could place disabled with non-disa- positions in marathons in Jordan, I managed to overcome it and do in Jordan. 2 April 28, 2019 Cover Story US Pressure on Iran Tehran opts for brinksmanship as US applies ‘maximum pressure’ on Iranian oil exports Thomas Seibert pert at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said by telephone. Vatanka said the leadership in Istanbul Tehran was hoping that Trump would not be re-elected next year, ran is fiercely criticising the de- which could open the way for a thaw cision by the Trump adminis- in relations.
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