UK £2 www.thearabweekly.com Issue 203, Year 5 EU €2.50 April 28, 2019 Muslims After Egypt’s Women in and the West referendum Sudan, Algeria protests

Page 4 Page 13 Page 20 Iran’s proxies know their limits as next front line of showdown with US ► There are few indications that Iranian surrogates are willing to opt for military escalation specifically because of their realistic assessment of the option and, in many cases, their awareness of their increasing weaknesses.

Mamoon Alabbasi ures, which include sanctions and terror designations, against Iranian proxies. London Even before the waivers expire, Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, xperts said Iran’s prox- Yemen, Syria and Iraq have been ies are unlikely to retaliate feeling the pain of sanctions. against US interests in the “Quantifying the strain on this E Middle East despite deci- network is difficult because Iranian sions by Washington to increase support is covert and beneficiaries pressure on Tehran. rarely discuss their finances but in- The Trump administration an- terviews with fighters, officials and nounced that sanctions waivers for analysts who track the issue made importation of Iranian oil would be the economic pain clear,” the New reduced to “zero level” after they York Times reported. expire May 2. While it remains unclear if the “The Trump administration and pain translates into a reversal of our allies are determined to sustain policy by Iran and its allies, there and expand the maximum eco- are few indications that Iranian sur- nomic pressure campaign against rogates are willing to opt for mili- Iran to end the regime’s destabilis- tary escalation specifically because ing activity threatening the United of their realistic assessment of the States, our partners and allies, and option and, in many cases, their security in the Middle East,” read a awareness of their increasing weak- White House statement April 22. nesses. “The president’s decision to In Iraq, more members of the eliminate all SREs (Significant Re- country’s Shia community are turn- duction Exceptions) follows the ing against Iran, which they blame designation of the Islamic Revo- for the Arab country’s woes. This Heated rhetoric. A Hezbollah supporter attends a rally in Beirut. (Reuters) lutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] as has led many in Iraq’s political class a Foreign Terrorist Organisation, to distance themselves from Teh- demonstrating the United States’ ran. but conditions in Syria are unlikely towards Riyadh and vowed to reach it attached unattainable conditions, commitment to disrupting Iran’s Hard-line Iraqi supporters of Iran to allow it to make any military es- “strategic” targets in Saudi Arabia such as an apology from Washing- terror network and changing the may be more concerned with keep- calation on Iran’s behalf. and the United Arab Emirates. ton, to such negotiations. regime’s malign behaviour,” the ing their positions of influence in- Hezbollah, under frequent Israeli Any strikes they could carry out Iranian Foreign Minister Moham- statement added. side Iraq — with Iranian help — than air strikes in Syria, is likely to seek are unlikely to be as strategic as mad Javad Zarif said he believes The United States said it would in engaging in a military confron- to continue its activities in Syria they describe them and would be that US President Donald Trump not sanction foreign governments tation with the United States. Bills and Lebanon but does not appear operations of opportunity rather does not want war with Iran but and businesses that have dealings in the Iraqi parliament that call for to be looking forward to engaging than dictated by retaliation against that the US president could be with the IRGC and its affiliates, a timetable for the withdrawal of Israel and much less the United increased pressure on Iran. In any lured into a conflict by hawks in his such as al-Quds Force. Neverthe- US troops from Iraq are unlikely to States in a full-blown war. case and despite their inflated administration. less, the United States imposed pass. Hezbollah’s intention could be rhetoric, the Houthis are wary of A realistic Zarif said his country’s sanctions on entities accused of In fact, the Iraqi government ap- inferred from its measured reaction provoking unwanted regional and immediate intent is not confron- aiding Lebanon’s Hezbollah evade pears ready to benefit from the ef- to Israel’s destruction of its tunnels international reactions as UN-spon- tation but sidestepping the sanc- Washington’s sanctions against the fect of the expiration of US waiv- on the Lebanese-Israeli border last sored talks on Yemen continue. tions. “There are always ways of Iran-backed group. ers by announcing that Baghdad is December. The issue of US waivers Iran itself appears aware that going around the sanctions. We Countries benefiting from the US ready to boost its oil output should may not be worth the risk of war military measures, such as blocking have a PhD in that area,” he told waivers are China, India, Turkey, the market need. Iraq, which relies that could weaken the group’s grip the Strait of Hormuz, are unrealis- Reuters. Greece, Italy, Japan, South Korea on oil exports for most of its reve- on the Lebanese government. tic threats meant for domestic con- and Taiwan. Iraq has a waiver on nues, also stands to benefit from oil Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi re- sumption. Furthermore, guessing Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy importing Iranian electricity and price hikes. bels are still battling the Saudi-led that effective escalation would not Managing Editor and Online Editor gas that will end in June. The regime of Syrian President coalition supporting the interna- be in its own interest, Tehran has of The Arab Weekly. In recent months, the United Bashar Assad owes its survival at tionally recognised Yemeni gov- signalled its readiness to “negoti- States has imposed punitive meas- least partially to help from Tehran ernment. They have fired missiles ate” with the United States, even if P2-3,6,10-11,14 Jordan’s disabled struggle for acceptance and opportunities in society

Roufan Nahhas people,” he said, citing figures of the bled children. We need to do more,” Dubai and other places,” he added. everything alone. I can dress alone, Department for International Devel- he said. Sawalmeh was the first paraple- button my jacket alone, et cetera,” opment. Jordan’s people with disabilities gic to summit Mount Kilimanjaro said Nassar, who is married and par- Amman (PWD) society has helped many dis- in a wheelchair in 5 days, a feat he ticipates in sports, including swim- abled persons rise to be role models. undertook to raise awareness of the ming and basketball. Ali Sawalmeh ordan has made progress in First Jordanian paraplegic A notable case is Ali Sawalmeh, a rights of PWD. “Society around me has been so bettering the lives of people to summit Mount wheelchair marathon athlete who “My message was that, if you supportive and my family, too, but with disabilities but still needs Kilimanjaro in a wheelchair has become an inspiration to disa- dream, you can do things and that more effort is needed to integrate to introduce changes to facili- bled Jordanians. PWD deserve to be seen and heard PWD in the labour market. The J “My message was that, if you tate acceptance of the disabled and “I never thought of my disability and to have access to life like every- private sector needs to contribute improve their access to the job mar- dream, you can do things and as a barrier and wanted to change one else,” he said. more and give more job opportuni- ket. that PWD deserve to be seen the image people have of the disa- Anton Nassar became executive ties,” he said. Muhanad Azzeh, secretary-gen- and heard and to have access to bled. With determination and strong director of a morning television pro- There are more than 150 socie- eral of the Higher Council for the life like everyone else.” will, we (PWD) managed to over- gramme at Jordan Radio and Televi- ties and centres that care for people Affairs of Persons with Disabilities come the challenges and now the sion Corporation despite losing an with disabilities in Jordan. Their (HCD), which supports activities HCD President Prince Mired Raad society sees us as role models,” said arm in a car accident when he was common goal is to help PWDs gain that serve the disabled in Jordan, Zeid al-Hussein noted that more Sawalmeh, who works at Jordan’s 5 years old. acceptance and enjoy opportunities said there was still much work to do. than 500,000 disabled people under Public Security Department. “It was so challenging for a in society. “We estimate that 11-15% of the the age of 18 lack proper education. “I love sports and I love challeng- 5-year-old child to lose one major population suffers from disabilities, “Jordan does not have schools that es. I have been grabbing advanced part of his body but, little by little, Roufan Nahhas is a journalist based amounting to more than 1 million could place disabled with non-disa- positions in marathons in Jordan, I managed to overcome it and do in Jordan. 2 April 28, 2019 Cover Story US Pressure on Iran Tehran opts for brinksmanship as US applies ‘maximum pressure’ on Iranian oil exports

Thomas Seibert pert at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said by telephone. Vatanka said the leadership in Istanbul Tehran was hoping that Trump would not be re-elected next year, ran is fiercely criticising the de- which could open the way for a thaw cision by the Trump adminis- in relations. In the meantime, Iran tration to push the country’s oil was eager to portray Washington as I exports to zero but analysts said an “irresponsible party” that slaps concrete counteractions by Tehran illegal sanctions on a sovereign na- were unlikely. tion and other countries. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatol- Last November, Washington re- lah Ali Khamenei called the end of imposed oil sanctions on Iran, sus- oil sanctions waivers by the United pended under the 2015 international States a “hostile measure” that nuclear deal with Tehran until the “won’t be left without a response.” United States left the accord last He was commenting on an an- year but the United States initially nouncement by the United States gave eight governments 6-month re- that it will no longer grant sanctions prieves. Those exemptions will end exemptions to Iran’s oil customers May 2, the day the latest measure, and will start imposing sanctions on designed to reduce Iran’s oil exports countries such as India, China and to “zero,” as US Secretary of State Turkey if they continue to buy Ira- Michael Pompeo put it, will kick in. nian oil. A further drop in oil exports, which stood at 2.5 million barrels Thomas Juneau, per day (bpd) before the sanctions a Middle East and have fallen to just more than 1 expert at the University million bpd since then, is likely to of Ottawa hit Iran’s economy hard. “In the very short term, I don’t Iranians are bracing for tougher expect the Iranian government times, Agence France-Presse re- to do much, beyond the usual ported. “It will get worse. As ordi- Under “maximum pressure.” Iranian President Hassan Rohani (C) attends an annual military parade (DPA) rhetoric criticising the US.” nary citizens, we already expect in Tehran, April 18. prices to rise further” if oil exports The decision by Washington is a reach zero, the news agency quoted “Historically, there has not been a “The Trump administration is af- NATO member and Iranian neigh- further escalation of a “maximum a 55-year-old housewife in Tehran as direct correlation between the state ter the big headlines and that is what bour Turkey could be one of those pressure” campaign that the US saying. of the Iranian economy and its for- they got,” Vatanka said, referring to countries. Turkish Foreign Minister government says is a tool to force The Iranian leadership remains eign policy assertiveness. In other Washington’s attention-grabbing Mevlut Cavusoglu posted on Twit- Tehran to end its aggressive policies defiant, however, and says Washing- words, the US further strangling the “zero” announcement. With China, ter that his country, which is at odds in the Middle East but analysts said ton will not bring the country to its Iranian economy is not likely, in the an international power and a major with Washington over a Turkish plan they doubt that US President Don- knees. “Enemies have repeatedly, in short term at least, to force Iran to importer of Iranian oil, complaining to buy a Russian missile defence sys- ald Trump can bring about policy vain, taken action against our great cut back on its many investments about the new sanctions, the US ad- tem, “rejects unilateral sanctions changes in Iran by economic pres- nation [and our] revolution… but abroad.” ministration might conclude that it and impositions on how to conduct sure. they must know Iranians won’t give Juneau agreed with Vatanka that needed “to have a hard look” at the relations with neighbours.” At the same time, Tehran is not in,” Khamenei said. drastic countermeasures by Teh- waiver question again in the coming Vatanka said the Turkish govern- expected to resort to retaliatory The United States says Iranian ran are not likely. “In the very short weeks. ment faced the question of whether measures such as blocking the Strait meddling in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and term, I don’t expect the Iranian gov- Iran will do what it can to keep its it should “make a big public deal” of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. Al- Yemen is destabilising the region ernment to do much, beyond the oil exports as high as possible. “The about its rejection of America’s Iran ireza Tangsiri, commander of naval but Thomas Juneau, a Middle East usual rhetoric criticising the US,” he Islamic Republic has become, over policy or if it was wiser to wait for forces of the Islamic Revolutionary expert at the University of Ottawa, wrote. the years, highly skilled at finding the “zero” policy to soften. He said Guard Corps, said Iran could stop said a further slump of the economy Once the dust of the announce- multiple ways to evade sanctions,” it was reasonable for Ankara to ex- tanker traffic in the strait, a crucial would not bring about a new Iranian ment from Washington on the sanc- Juneau wrote. “This will help it to pect the United States to tolerate a waterway for the international oil foreign policy. tions exemptions has settled, the ensure that, despite US efforts, its oil certain amount of oil being exported trade. “Tehran will not change its foreign United States and Iran could quietly exports will not fall to [zero].” It was from Iran. “I don’t think the fundamentals of policy significantly in response to opt for policies that are much less a “reality that some countries will be Iran’s wait-and-see approach have the latest US measures,” Juneau said radical than the war of words be- able to continue importing at least Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly changed,” Alex Vatanka, an Iran ex- via e-mail. tween them suggests. some Iranian oil.” correspondent. Viewpoint New phase of cat-and-mouse tussle between US, Iran begins

he decision by the Hence predictions on oil exports them at less than 1 million bpd. This at Chattanooga. “The problem to Trump administration are for the brave and the foolish. is a stark fall from 2.3 million bpd how to handle the situation until to end eight waivers to “Experts have no consensus beyond before Trump withdrew last May 2020 and there are no guarantees Gareth Smyth buyers of Iranian oil that ‘zero exports’ is not realistic,” from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with Trump won’t be re-elected.” opens a new phase in said Michel Makinsky, general world powers, the Joint Compre- Diplomats and analysts sense the cat-and-mouse manager of consultants Ageromys hensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), that the United States’ Iran policy is Ttussle between the United States International. “Will [US President and the subsequent fall in exports driven by “hawks” such as national and Iran. Donald] Trump sanction those who earnings sent Iran’s economy into security adviser John Bolton. Their Iran’s oil customers — some of continue imports? recession. aim, Makinsky said, may be to push which have good political relations “Some states are more exposed Iran has taunted Washington Iran into rejecting the JCPOA or with Washington — are not the main and China and Turkey are top of over its claim it can reduce Iran’s oil taking other provocative steps, per- prey but they face possible US sanc- the list. With China and America exports to zero. Tehran’s finances haps impeding tankers in the Strait tions if they continue buying Iranian struggling in a trade and strategic have been bolstered by the 50% of Hormuz, through which a large crude. battle, Beijing may try to ‘cheat’ jump in oil prices since December, percentage of the world’s oil passes. The eight countries granted but cannot afford a confrontation. due to OPEC production limits, “Recent statements by IRGC “significant reduction exceptions” Turkey is likely to show a more defi- Libyan instability and US sanctions commanders on a potential Hormuz in November had been in intensive ant posture, as it is negotiating with against Venezuela and Iran. blockade should Iran not be free talks with US officials lobbying Russia the implementation of the However, unless prices continue to send tankers illustrate such a for continued waivers in return S-400 [air defence missile system] to rise, a further reduction in Iran’s risk,” said Makinsky. “For sure, the for reducing their Iranian intake. contract.” exports — perhaps to 700,000- supreme leader is aware of such India, for example, wanted 300,000 India is another case. Intriguingly, 800,000 barrels a day — would bite. traps and is pushing for both harsh barrels per day (bpd), while China, the United States has extended the The Economist Intelligence Unit rhetoric and very cautious behav- which has been buying around half waiver for New Delhi’s work on forecast of a 3.7% GDP contraction iour on the ground.” of Iran’s oil exports, is in talks over Iran’s Chabahar Port on the Gulf of for Iran in 2019, following a 4.6% So might Iran talk? Writing in US a wider trade agreement with the Oman, designed primarily to boost fall in 2018. This assumes oil rev- publications, including LobeLog, United States. India’s trade with central Asia. enues of $44.2 billion, which looks Hossein Mousavian, the Princeton- Secondary sanctions require Iran’s oil exports are already optimistic. based former Iranian diplomat in- discretionary executive actions and opaque, given various subter- So far, Iranian Supreme Leader volved in past nuclear negotiations, are not automatic. In demanding fuges, including tankers turning Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has man- sketched some possibilities. buyers “err on the side of caution,” off responders. Analysts agree that aged a broad political consensus “Trump’s administration hopes US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo exports rose as buyers stocked up for maintaining coordination with Ayatollah Khamenei will come to suggested bargaining may continue, before Washington’s decision on Europe, Russia and China as the the table,” said Golkar. “As far as we so bringing US officials into micro- waivers but estimates varied. parties work to develop payment know, Khamenei’s policy is still to Diplomats and management of oil purchases. S&P Global Platts put Tehran’s oil methods avoiding the US dollar. wait but if Iran cannot sell oil at all, analysts sense that Since the designation of Iran’s and condensates exports for March “The general sense [in Iran’s its calculus will change. That could the United States’ Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps at an average 1.7 million barrels bpd, political class] is waiting for 2020 mean negotiation, although its (IRGC) as a “foreign terrorist organi- close to levels before US sanctions [the US presidential election], chances [of success] are next to nil.” Iran policy is driven sation,” the United States has agreed in November, with China importing since almost all Democratic Party by “hawks” such as “exceptions” for some governments, 628,000 bpd. Other analysts put candidates want to re-enter the deal Gareth Smyth is a regular companies and NGOs dealing with March levels at 1.3 million bpd. [JCPOA],” said Saeid Golkar, visiting contributor to The Arab Weekly. national security the IRGC, for example allowing Iraqi Iran’s exports in early April fell, assistant professor of political sci- He has reported from the Middle adviser John Bolton. officials to maintain contacts. with Refinitiv Eikon estimating ence at the University of Tennessee East since 1992. April 28, 2019 3 Cover Story US Pressure on Iran What effect will US sanctions have?

Kelly Kennedy are simply not going to be worth the benefits.” Maja Kocijancic, European Com- Washington mission spokeswoman, expressed “regret” over the decision and said he United States said it it “risks further undermining” the would no longer grant ex- Iran nuclear deal, which the United ceptions on sanctions to States pulled out of last year. T countries importing Iranian However, Geneive Abdo, a resi- oil, adding that all exceptions would dent scholar at the Arabia Founda- end May 2. tion who specialises in political Is- “Today I am announcing that we lam and Iranian geopolitics, said the will no longer grant any exemp- sanctions were working. “What [US tions,” US Secretary of State Mike President Donald] Trump has done, Pompeo said. “We’re going to zero, which is actually very strategic, has going to zero across the board.” been effective,” she said. Iran responded to the announce- The goal, she said, was not re- ment with threats to close the Strait gime change but to destabilise Iran’s of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb Strait. economy, as well as its proxies in the A US State Department official region, and that’s working. said: “We call on Iran and all coun- On their own, the sanctions aren’t tries to respect the free flow of en- enough, Abdo pointed out, but, ergy and commerce and freedom of combined with the terrorist desig- A harder line. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (C) and national security adviser John Bolton (R) navigation” in the straits, reported nation of Iran’s Islamic Revolution- listen as US President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting, last February. (AP) Reuters. ary Guard Corps, the Trump admin- Both Turkey and China said they istration has put Iran in a difficult oppose the sanctions. position. of the announcement, continue to lise the Middle East,” he said. “Cur- tions in petrol prices. “Our cooperation with Iran is “That will make it very difficult for go up and petrol follows suit at the rently, market conditions are strong “Saudi Arabia and others in OPEC open, transparent, lawful and le- the next [US] president to renegoti- pump. “The political risk for Trump and we have confidence that other will more than make up the Oil Flow gitimate, thus it should be respect- ate the [Iran nuclear deal] because is if gas goes up in the summer when nations can and will fill any future difference in our now Full Sanctions ed,” said Chinese Foreign Military we don’t negotiate with terrorists,” people want to take vacations,” gaps in the global oil supply.” on Iranian Oil,” Trump tweeted spokesman Geng Shuang. “Our gov- she said. “If Trump is re-elected, Abdo said. Pompeo emphasised that the April 22. ernment is committed to upholding Iran will likely pull out of the nu- The United States is depending on sanctions were working. Brian Hook, US special represent- the legitimate rights and interests of clear deal because there’s no point.” Saudi Arabia to make up for Iran’s “[The Iranians’] capacity to wreak ative for Iran, said the United States Chinese companies and will play a lost production, but Riyadh ex- harm around the world is absolute- has made sure the market is well- positive and constructive role in up- pressed caution. Saudi Oil Minister, ly clearly diminished,” he said. “I supplied so there will not be any Geneive Abdo, holding the stability of global energy Khalid al-Falih said in a statement talked about it with respect to Hez- supply interruptions. The sanctions resident scholar at the market.” Arabia Foundation that the Saudis would consult with bollah not being able to make pay- will help to promote “peace and sta- Turkish Minister of Foreign Af- other countries “to ensure a well- roll in a timely fashion. I’ve talked bility,” Hook said. fairs Mevlut Cavusoglu, in a post- balanced and stable oil market.” about it in other places as well.” Oil prices went up April 22 but ing on social media, said: “The #US “What Trump has done, which “It will be American consumers More than 1.5 million barrels per Fannon said it was hard to know decision to end sanctions waivers is actually very strategic, has who are going to continue to bear day of Iranian oil have been taken how much of that increase was re- on #Iran oil imports will not serve been effective.” the cost of the Trump administra- off the market, causing Tehran a loss lated to the sanctions announce- regional peace and stability, yet will tion’s foreign policy at the pump,” of $10 billion in oil revenue, Pompeo ment. harm Iranian people. #Turkey re- She said the European Union has US Senator Ed Markey, a Democrat said. In March, Hezbollah Secretary- “We saw some increase, so it’s jects unilateral sanctions and impo- acknowledged it can’t help Iran from Massachusetts, said on social General Hassan Nasrallah asked for hard to conflate our announce- sitions on how to conduct relations while also “coming around to the media. donations for the first time. ments, what was made versus other with neighbours.” US position” after seeing Iran’s in- Senator Jim Risch, a Republican Oil is Iran’s largest source of rev- things,” Fannon said. “I think just Those who violate the sanctions creased activity in Yemen. from Idaho and chairman of the enue, “which it uses to support a few hours prior you could look at risk losing access to the global finan- Russia may also be constricted be- Senate Foreign Relations Commit- terrorist proxies, fuel its missile other reporting as to the OPEC cur- cial system, as well as the ability to cause, while it is on the “Iranian side tee, said in a statement that he did development and engage in other tailment. There [are] lots of reasons do business with the United States of the issue,” it also wants to mini- not think the policy would affect destabilising behaviour,” the US in terms of what affects oil mar- or US businesses. “Any nation or mise Iran’s influence in Syria, Abdo consumers significantly. State Department said. kets.” entity interacting with Iran should said. “The Iranian regime remains a Both Trump and Pompeo sought do its diligence and err on the side Trump may face a tough decision leading state sponsor of terrorism to reassure Americans that the sanc- Kelly Kennedy is an Arab Weekly of caution,” Pompeo said. “The risks if oil prices, which spiked the day and is actively seeking to destabi- tions would not cause wild fluctua- correspondent in Washington.

Viewpoint Trump ends sanctions waivers to deprive Tehran of oil lifeline

he Trump administra- being cast on the collaboration of lowed those countries to purchase so-called ‘long-arm jurisdictions’ tion is tightening the reduced output from OPEC mem- reduced volumes of Iranian crude imposed by the United States. Our screws on Tehran’s bers and independent oil produc- with the understanding that the cooperation with Iran is open, Jareer Elass economic pain, ers that fostered a price recovery levels should drop over the course transparent, lawful and legitimate, curtailing sanctions over the past four months. of the 180 days for any extension to thus it should be respected.” waivers it had previ- A statement from White House be considered. Riyadh and its closest Gulf al- Tously granted to eight importers Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee The Trump administration justi- lies boosted oil production last of Iranian crude effective May 2 Sanders said: “President Donald J. fied the SREs as part of its efforts to summer and fall in anticipation of and putting countries on notice Trump has decided not to reissue phase out all Iranian crude exports the US sanctions renewal on Iran, that they could face financial Significant Reduction Exceptions by wanting to avoid a serious oil with Trump calling on their higher repercussions should they flout (SREs) when they expire in early market disruption that would cause output to prevent soaring oil prices. the sanctions and continue to buy May. This decision is intended to oil prices to skyrocket. However, the Saudis felt sucker- Iranian oil. bring Iran’s exports to zero, deny- The Trump administration is us- punched when the American ad- The decision to end the waiv- ing the regime its principal source ing current oil market conditions to ministration issued the SREs in No- ers came after phone consulta- of income.” rationalise eliminating the waivers. vember. The exceptions combined tions US President Donald Trump There had been expectations US Special Representative for Iran with galloping US crude production reportedly had with Saudi Crown that the Trump administration Brian Hooks said that “because [in] and Riyadh’s own expanded output Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin would extend waivers to at least 2019 we forecast more supply than helped oil prices take a tumble to Abdulaziz and Abu Dhabi Crown three of the eight countries on its demand, there are better market less than $50 a barrel. Prince Mohammed bin Zayed SRE list to avoid chaos in the oil conditions for us to accelerate our Faced with the price collapse, al-Nahyan, in which he sought market and to not further strain re- path to zero [Iranian imports].” a Saudi-led coalition of OPEC reassurances that the two Gulf pro- lations with key geopolitical play- The sanctions have taken a hard members and independent oil ducers would help stabilise the oil ers, such as Beijing and Ankara. bite into Iran’s economy: Tehran’s producers known as the OPEC+ market following the withdrawal The administration was said to be crude exports have fallen from alliance agreed to pull as much of more Iranian oil from global internally divided over the waiver highs of 2.6 million-2.7 million as 1.2 million bpd from the oil supplies. renewals, with US national security barrels per day (bpd) to around 1 market, beginning in January. That Saudi officials were quick to en- adviser John Bolton pressing for million bpd. cooperation helped tighten the oil dorse the Trump administration’s their elimination and US Secretary Three of the countries that had market, pushing oil prices up more change over the waivers. Saudi of State Mike Pompeo wanting a been granted waivers — Greece, than $70 a barrel. Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Assaf more measured response. Although Italy and Taiwan — opted not to The questions facing the market called the White House’s decision Bolton’s camp won, the State De- take advantage of the exceptions are whether China will flex its a “necessary step” to making Iran partment is portraying Pompeo as and stopped buying Iranian crude. economic and political power to accountable for its “destabilising the originator of the “zero Iranian The other five, including Iran’s top buck the Trump administration’s policies and support for terrorism.” imports policy” and arguing that two oil customers China and India, hardened stance on Iran’s oil The Trump Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih the conditions were ripe for waiv- had been expecting and pushing for sanctions, what retaliatory steps administration is stated that Riyadh was committed ers to be discontinued. extensions. Tehran might take in response to using current oil to “stabilise” the oil market. The oil market and global diplo- Beijing, which accounts for the loss of the waivers and whether News of the waivers cancella- matic community were taken by close to half of Iran’s oil exports, the OPEC+ alliance continues to market conditions tion caused oil prices to jump 3%, surprise in November when the denounced the Trump adminis- operate. to rationalise supported by Tehran threatening Trump administration granted tration’s rescinding of the SREs. to close the Strait of Hormuz, top 6-month SREs to China, Japan, In- Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokes- Jareer Elass reports from eliminating the Iranian crude buyer China making dia, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, man Geng Shuang said: “China op- Washington on energy issues for waivers. its displeasure known and doubt Italy and Greece. The waivers al- poses the unilateral sanctions and The Arab Weekly. 4 April 28, 2019 Debate Facing extremism How Muslims should deal with bigotry and hate

Humam Taha

ddressing the hatred against Muslims that the extremist far right is encouraging should be done in the context of a rejection ofA all forms of hatred, regardless of its source or target. That is why the call by Arab writers to West- ern countries following the attack against Muslims in New Zealand to enact laws criminalising “hatred against Islam and Muslims” does not sound logical or understand- able. What that suggestion amounts to is an invitation to confront racism with a racist logic, com- bat hatred by inciting hatred and fighting discrimination by estab- lishing discrimination. If such laws were passed, they will lead to the consolidation of the crisis of coexistence between Islam and the West and create an atmosphere of mistrust and revenge. Such legislation implicitly says the existence of Islam in the West is a “crisis,” that the integration of Muslims is intractable and that Dangerous exclusion. Demonstrators take part in a US protest against growing Islamophobia, white supremacy and anti-immigrant bigotry they will forever remain an isolated following the attacks at Christchurch, New Zealand, March 24. (AFP) group looking for special treatment because they lack cultural flex- ibility and are unable to adapt to diversity and natural development The best way to preserve one’s dence, trusting others, openness need to tame and suppress feelings Western culture. of societies. identity is to free oneself from and tolerance and not a sign of of religious and ethnic superiority It is not in the interest of Muslims As Muslims, we can protect our- its limitations and burdens and cultural defeat. and to show modesty and objectiv- in the West to have laws protect- selves from hatred only by engag- realise that identity gains its vital- Palestinian academic Khaled ity in recognising and accepting ing them as a separate group. Such ing in a global project to counter ity through positive interaction al-Hroub said: “Flexible cultural differences between cultures. We laws would consolidate defining it and by adopting a universal with other identities rather than specificities have produced civilisa- need to liberate ourselves from the them politically and legally based concept of tolerance rather than through isolation. tions and cultures capable of as- discourse of placing too much pride on their religious and sectarian demanding that anti-hate laws be Many customs, traditions and similating and benefiting from the in our identity and in refusing to be identity and define their presence elaborated and tailored to a specific fashion choices have been labelled experiences of others.” He pointed flexible regarding our religious and in their societies in religious terms. class or ethnicity. “Islamic” and have become part out that the historical experience cultural constants. The result of the moves would Denying one’s cultural self and parcel of the concept of “Islam- of the Arab-Islamic civilisation A human being’s cultural be the erection of cultural and psy- does not mean abandoning one’s ic culture” while they are contro- provided an understanding of the identity is fluid and constantly chological barriers between Mus- identity. It means living in verted issues in Islam and there Islamic cultural specificity based changing, forming and reforming lims and society at large, isolating harmony with others and ac- is no religious proof supporting on openness and self-confidence, itself through contacts with other and alienating them from the rest cepting them as partners them as “Islamic.” unlike what prevails in contem- identities, both in harmony or by of the society, creating a climate in the public sphere. Therefore, now more porary Islamic discourse, which is clashing. that feeds Islamophobia. This comes through than ever before, looking at cultural specificity from The concepts and policies of What is needed instead is to considering their It is not in Muslims need to make the perspective of isolation and globalising tolerance, global citi- strengthen the integration of Mus- cultural specifi- the interest of cultural concessions stagnation. zenship, cultural flexibility and lims in society and to consolidate cities as legiti- Muslims in the so they can become Every human being has the interactive cultural specificities are their definition as citizens based mate lifestyles West to have laws more effective in right to cultural specificity but he transforming the world into a plu- on the common identity that brings and social and protecting them interacting with or she also has the responsibil- ralistic, open, large and intercon- them together with the other di- behavioural as a separate other cultures at the ity to manage this specificity in a nected society with a common hu- verse identities. choices if they do group. global level. These civilised and interactive manner in man identity. It fits the definition What Muslims need to do is not conflict with desired cultural and a multicultural society. Interactive of a cosmopolitan society given by activate their role in confronting the law and human behavioural transfor- communication between individu- British-born philosopher Kwame hatred and racism and to leave the rights. mations make us more als and groups and across cultures Anthony Appiah as “a society mentality of cultural entrench- The wrong thing to do integrated with the times and is characteristic of this age. One’s whose members belong to different ment. That mentality converges is to look at differences and the world and are far from being cultural specificity can only be places and have relations of mutual with the ideas of the extreme right choices through an aggressive an affront to Islam or an attempt to maintained through interaction respect regardless of their religious that views the presence of Muslims and judgmental angle and make deform its teachings. with other cultural specificities in beliefs or political views.” in the West as an exceptional situa- exclusionary and extremist moral Having the will to make cultural one’s society and the world. tion rather than part of the cultural judgments about them. concessions is a sign of self-confi- To live together in harmony, we Humam Taha is an Iraqi writer. Christchurch to Colombo: The unseen arc?

borders. Anne Speckhard, director attack Muslims and visually dis- “Calypso jihadis” sound rather ing-class white American voters. of the US think-tank International tinct people in Western countries. jolly until one considers the im- Taken together with long-running Centre for the Study of Violent In reference to the Sri Lanka portance of the group’s existence. jihadism, white nationalism feeds Rashmee Extremism, called ISIS’s baleful bombings, Morell said the world As Cottee wrote, it illustrates “the the sense of a spreading, religious- Roshan Lall influence across the world “the needs to be prepared to deal with genuinely global reach of ISIS… ly and racially focused conflict. wave of the future.” this type of terrorism for genera- (and its ability to frame) its griev- It’s been nearly 30 years since fter the Easter Sun- This sombre picture is further tions. But how? ances and ambitions in a way American political scientist day bombings in Sri shaded by Sri Lankan defence The choice of targets is increas- that was understood across Samuel Huntington argued Lanka, former CIA minister’s assertion the bombings ingly diffuse, making it harder to many different countries that future wars would be Director Michael Mo- were carried out in retaliation for know what to police and where. Sri and cultures.” fought between cultures rell offered a dismal the mosque shootings in Christch- Lanka, an island-nation attractive So, is this “Terror- The fact rather than countries. assessment of the urch, New Zealand. to tourists from around the world, ism 3.0,” the snappy a Christchurch- Huntington’s “clash stateA of the world. Doubt has been cast on any has minuscule Christian and Mus- term coined by Colombo of civilisations” There are, he said, at least triple direct cause-and-effect sequence. lim populations. Christchurch, James Stavridis, connection was theory has become the number of Islamist extremists Complex, coordinated, multisite a New Zealand backwater, with a retired US Navy made by a Sri a cliche, one to today than there were on 9/11. It’s attacks, such as in Sri Lanka, can a tiny community of Muslims, admiral and Lankan government be ignored. It’s not clear how an accurate head- take months to organise and the doesn’t readily present itself as a former NATO su- minister raises a regarded as an Christchurch attacks occurred terrorist target. preme allied com- alarmist academic count could ever be done but the terrible Islamic State’s possibly opportun- six weeks ago. Even so, the fact a Add to that data gathered by mander for “the attempt to con- istic claim of responsibility for Christchurch-Colombo connection Simon Cottee, a lecturer in crimi- evolution of global prospect. struct an omnibus the Sri Lanka attacks underlines a was made by a Sri Lankan govern- nology at Kent University in the terrorism”? Stavridis narrative that enfolds grim reality. ment minister raises a terrible United Kingdom, on the so-called uses his technologically and explains commu- The Islamic State (ISIS), now prospect. calypso caliphate. adept label only for ISIS’s new nal frictions but extremists of without territory and with its Terrorism is increasingly Cottee offered a “conserva- clicks-only strategy and the various stripes seem to be com- dream of a thriving caliphate focused on religious rather than tive” estimate of 130 Trinidad and enforced move away from the mitted to making it a reality. smashed, remains influential. secular political targets. There is Tobago nationals who journeyed “costly, time-consuming business Hopefully, we won’t get there Not long ago, US President Don- the possibility of an endless spiral to Syria and Iraq to join ISIS from of operating retail bricks-and- but there is a very real risk we ald Trump declared ISIS “100%” of revenge and counter-revenge 2013-16. Though that might seem mortar” outlets. might. defeated in Syria but that was not attacks by extremists claiming to a “trifling number,” Cottee said, There are also new complica- “mission accomplished” by any serve as armed protection groups, it’s big for a Caribbean nation with tions caused by rising white Rashmee Roshan Lall is a means. Whatever the depth and flag-bearers really, for their a population of 1.3 million and nationalist extremism. It is given columnist for The Arab Weekly. scale of ISIS’s logistical support respective communities. For ter- places Trinidad and Tobago “top ballast by politicians such as Her blog can be found at to Sri Lanka’s bombers, it has an rorism itself is metastasising. It is of the list of Western countries for Trump, who appeals to racial and www.rashmee.com and she is ideological hold that transcends drawing in white nationalists who foreign-fighter radicalisation.” religious animus to cater to work- on Twitter: @rashmeerl. April 28, 2019 5 News & Analysis Libya

Viewpoint Deciphering Trump’s surprising stance on Libya

play catch-up. A department statement, issued April 22, Gregory reiterated the White House Aftandilian praise of Haftar but added that all parties needed “to return to the political process.” That last ike his Syria policy, clause seemed to walk back, to which went through some degree, the new policy in several contradic- an effort to mollify critics. tory iterations in 2018, What is behind this change of US President Donald policy? Trump has upended First, as was the case with Lhis Libya policy with his recent Syria, Trump seems to make phone call to Libyan strongman policy on the fly. He has a disdain Khalifa Haftar. for the inter-agency process that In a White House readout of other presidents have followed the April 15 call, which was not and, as he said in 2018, he is the reported until April 19, Trump only person who matters in the “recognised Field-Marshal conduct of US foreign policy. Haftar’s significant role in Second, Trump seems to be fighting terrorism and securing influenced to a large degree by Libya’s oil resources.” foreign officials with whom he While the statement added meets or calls. It is probably not Escalating battle. GNA fighters run for cover during clashes with forces loyal to Field-Marshal Khalifa that the “two discussed a shared a coincidence that his phone Haftar, south of Tripoli suburb of Ain Zara, April 25. (AFP) vision for Libya’s transition to call to Haftar came shortly after a stable, democratic political Egyptian President Abdel Fatah system,” the first part was al-Sisi’s visit to the White House. interpreted as an endorsement Sisi has been a strong supporter War grinds on around of Haftar’s military offensive of Haftar — both share an against the UN-backed antipathy towards Islamists of Government of National Accord all political stripes — and clearly in Tripoli and his attempt to take wants him to succeed. Trump Tripoli with extremists and over the country. had also recently spoken on This praise of Haftar came a the phone to Abu Dhabi Crown week after US Secretary of State Prince Mohammed bin Zayed ‘mercenaries’ said to back GNA Mike Pompeo stated before a al-Nahyan, another strong congressional committee that supporter of Haftar and opponent the Trump administration has of the Muslim Brotherhood. Michel Cousins UN Security Council and achieve a designated terrorist from Bosnia made it “clear that we oppose Third, the new policy seems ceasefire. who had been fighting in Syria with the military offensive by Khalifa to have been spurred on by US France continues to be perceived the former al-Nusra Front, had ar- Haftar’s forces and urge the national security adviser John Tunis as supporting Haftar. As far as Sarraj rived in Tripoli. The LNA also said it immediate halt to these military Bolton, who seems to think and the GNA are concerned, Paris had captured some Turkish fighters. operations against the Libyan Haftar may be the saviour on the espite claims by both sides — and more specifically Le Drian — Mismari said foreign mercenar- capital.” white horse. Bolton has disdain in Libya that they are on fully backs the LNA. This percep- ies, including a pilot from Ecuador, for the United Nations and may course for victory, the bat- tion resulted in anti-French protests were fighting alongside the GNA’s not care that Trump’s praise of D tle for Tripoli after more in Tripoli and a frenzy in pro-GNA forces and the militias and Islamic Haftar and silence on the military than three weeks remains in a vir- media claiming French military extremists backing them. The White House offensive caused deep concern tual stalemate. equipment was being delivered to The fear among analysts is that comment praising among UN officials. The forces of Field-Marshal Khal- the LNA. the involvement of militants, terror- Haftar for “securing Although this is not the first ifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army With both sides presenting up- ists and criminals in the GNA ranks time that a national security (LNA) are holding positions south of beat claims they are winning, they is legitimising them and could give Libya’s oil adviser has prevailed over a Tripoli. Pro-LNA officials said they also insist there will be no nego- them a role in any future Libyan in- resources” is likely secretary of state, the episode had to slow down out of concern for tiations or a ceasefire. It is also re- stitutional set-up or could force any probably reflects Bolton’s possible civilian casualties. ported that, given the stalemate, a political process to quickly unravel. connected to its Iran increasing influence on Trump. Besides the mounting human toll, more realistic position is being con- For many Tripolitans there is war- policy. Fourth, there is likely an Iran the role of militias and extremist el- sidered. weariness and a desire to have the angle to this story. With Bolton ements supporting the Government There have been rumours of be- fighting end. This surprisingly in- Trump’s statement caused pushing hard for a worldwide of National Accord (GNA) is a source hind-the-scenes discussions about cludes GNA officials who are willing astonishment the world over, embargo on Iranian oil exports, of added concern. a ceasefire involving various inter- to see Haftar’s side win the war. not only because he seemed to especially now that the Haftar’s forces and the varied pro- mediaries. A ceasefire, sources said, “I don’t care who wins, as long contradict his own top diplomat administration has announced GNA forces supporting the Presi- would not require the LNA to pull as someone wins,” said a leading but also because the United there would be no more sanctions dential Council headed by Fayez al- back to its positions prior to April 3 GNA official who did not want to States had been supporting the waivers granted to countries Sarraj are locked in combat, mainly but would involve some withdrawal be named. He said he does not like UN effort to foster reconciliation purchasing Iranian oil, he in the southern Tripoli suburbs. south of Tripoli. Preserving its posi- Haftar but a Libya run by him would between Libya’s two rival understands that other countries Both sides have tried to resort to tions would give the LNA negotiat- at least be stable and would start governments, the drafting of need to pump more oil to make air strikes but limited capacity has ing advantages. working, unlike the present situa- a new constitution and new up for any shortfall in order to denied either strategic superiority Analysts, though, are wary that, tion. elections. keep prices stable. but still casualty figures continue to in the event of a ceasefire, the two Against the backdrop of the en- Not lost on others was the Although the Trump mount. sides — especially the GNA — may during deep divide, tens of thou- fact that Trump afforded Haftar administration has asked Saudi not be able to fully control their sands of mainly sub-Saharan mi- great respect by referring to Arabia and the United Arab A leading GNA official forces. The concern specifically is grants are the most vulnerable, him by his self-anointed title Emirates to increase production that militants backing the GNA, particularly those held in deten- of “field-marshal.” The Trump for this purpose, that may not be said he does not like such as Salah Badi, would not see tion centres. On April 23, gunmen administration, joining Russia, enough. The price of oil has risen Haftar but a Libya run by themselves bound by any truce and broke into the detention centre in opposed a British-drafted UN 43% since the beginning of 2019 him would at least be would continue to attack LNA posi- Qasr Ben Ghashir, 20km south of Security Council resolution and oil experts are predicting a stable and would start tions and that the latter would feel central Tripoli and on the front line calling for an immediate ceasefire tight market through 2020 — a US working, unlike the obliged to fire back. of the clashes, and started shoot- in Libya. presidential election year. present situation. The role of the militants in the ing at detainees. Around a dozen It appears this reversal of policy Hence, having Libya GNA forces has become a major were injured and there were un- caught the State Department supposedly stabilised under a Despite the fighting, there is an concern, both for the LNA and the confirmed reports that at least two off guard. An anonymous State strongman who would increase air of almost bizarre normality in international community. France were killed. Department official told the oil production would be highly Libya, outside of the clashes. An ex- refused to back an EU statement Human Rights Watch and oth- Washington publication Politico beneficial from Trump’s hibition at a new art gallery opened calling for a truce and a pullback er NGOs claim migrants in other that “our people on the ground perspective. The White House in Tripoli Old City, although there by the LNA, insisting that it men- Tripoli detention centres were be- [in the region] are dealing with comment praising Haftar for were few foreign diplomats — most tion the involvement of criminals ing used to transport weapons for the fallout.” “securing Libya’s oil resources” is of whom have joined the exodus and UN-sanctioned terrorists in the the pro-Sarraj forces and carry out Even Trump’s erstwhile ally likely connected to its Iran policy. to Tunis — at the event. Also, local fighting and demand the Libyan other military tasks in violation of in Congress, US Senator Lindsey The problem for Trump is elections have been taking place in parties stop using them. France also international law. Graham, chairman of the Senate that Haftar may not succeed western and southern towns. wanted that the situation faced by The day after the shooting at the Armed Services Committee, in his quest for total control of In the face of the stalemate, the migrants as a result of the clashes Qasr Ben Ghashir camp, the Inter- expressed surprise. The South Libya — his offensive on Tripoli international community is increas- be included. national Organisation for Migra- Carolina Republican stated in an has stalled — and that ongoing ing efforts for a ceasefire. An African The LNA and its supporters claim tion moved some 325 detainees to a interview while visiting Tunisia violence could further disrupt Union meeting April 23 in Cairo de- that, apart from the Tripoli militia- camp in Zawia, west of Tripoli. that Trump’s phone call “has Libya’s oil production. It would manded an “immediate and uncon- men who have long been accused of If the LNA intensifies its Tripoli of- created a sense of imbalance” not be surprising, therefore, that ditional halt” to the fighting and a taking Libya’s oil wealth, there are fensive, it may decide to move into among the Libyan parties and Trump will change his new Libya return to dialogue. terrorists in the GNA ranks. They western Tripoli. That would neces- he called on the administration policy as realities set in, all the Tunisia has been trying, in coor- named Murad Shetaw, a member sitate moving against Zawia, which to underscore that the United while claiming, like his Syria dination with Egypt and Algeria, to of the Benghazi Defence Brigades, is on the route into Tripoli. That States was not picking one group policy, there was no reversal. pressure the Libyan parties to ac- seen as being linked to al-Qaeda. would be the LNA’s most difficult over another and would “reject cept a ceasefire and dialogue. Tu- LNA spokesman Major-General operation. In Zawia, Islamic radicals military force as the solution to Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer nisian Foreign Minister Khemaies Ahmed Mismari claimed that, not are likely to be a strong factor. Tak- the problems in Libya.” in the Pardee School of Global Jhinaoui pressed French Foreign only were Libyan extremists fight- ing it would involve a major fight. After the gist of Trump’s Studies at Boston University and Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian to bring ing with the GNA forces, but there phone call was released publicly, a former US State Department about consensus on Libya among were foreign fighters as well. It was Michel Cousins is a contributor to the State Department tried to Middle East analyst. the five permanent members of the said that Nusret Imamovic, a US- The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. 6 April 28, 2019 Opinion

Editorial New set of Iran sanctions he United States has announced its intention to end all previous waivers for imports of Iranian oil. Greece, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, India and Turkey, which had received waivers in Novem- Tber, will have to do without Iran’s oil by May 1 if they do not want to face US sanctions. Iraq will not be able to import Iranian gas or electricity after the end of June. The United States’ intent is to apply “maximum pressure” on Iran by depriving it of $50 billion of annual revenues. The new restrictions will only add to its woes. Despite Tehran’s claims, the sanctions will bite. The United States seems to have set the stage for this new set of sanctions. To offset oil short- ages, it says it reached an agreement with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for them to boost their output. Washington’s declared purpose from stepping out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and imposing the subsequent sanctions is to force Tehran to curtail its nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile development programmes as well as end its use of regional proxies in the promotion of expansionist policies in places such as Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. Iranian officials, who contend the Trump administration is after regime change, are © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly escalating their threats of retaliation as are their proxies in the region. The commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ navy threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway through Sudan needs a new which one-third of the world’s oil passes, if Tehran is not allowed to export its oil. “[I]f we are generation of leaders barred from using it, we will shut it down,” General Alireza Tangsiri said. Khairallah Khairallah Using disagreements about the deployment in Hodeidah, Yemen, as a pretext, Abdelmalik Sudan’s problem is that its political leaders have never al-Houthi, leader of the Iran-supported Houthis been able to shoulder their responsibilities. in Yemen, is threatening Gulf countries with strikes. “The missiles can reach Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Dubai… vibrant and sensitive targets,” t is important that Saudi eliminated his Islamist rivals led growth. Egypt is also playing a he said. Arabia and the United Arab by Hassan al-Turabi, it wasn’t major role in fighting all forms of Affected by Iran’s budget woes as well as by Emirates announce finan- enough to end the threat posed terrorism, especially in Gaza, the specific US restrictions, Lebanese Hezbollah cial assistance to Sudan by the Muslim Brotherhood to Sinai desert and Libya. Quite obvi- could be tempted to contribute to the escalation in these circumstances. Sudan’s future. On the contrary, ously, the Saudi-Kuwaiti-Emirati of regional tensions. This step reflects political al-Bashir, who remained in pow- bet on Egypt was wise. Iran said it will not go to the negotiating table Icourage on the one hand and er for 30 years, combined mili- Still, there is a need for more before the United States lifts the sanctions and apologises to its regime. Dangerous brinksman- foresight on the other. It is an tary dictatorship with all sorts of political openness in Egypt today ship seems more likely than a change in Iran’s investment in the future before opportunists who use Islam for to close all doors for a renewed policies. anything else and a bet on Sudan political ends. Al-Bashir ended infiltration of the Muslim Brother- and its wealth and the ability of up with the worst among the hood into the administrations and its people to learn from experi- military and the worst among the institutions of the state. ences. Muslim Brothers who invested in Perhaps the main question is: ISIS attacks The Saudi-Emirati initiative backwardness. Where is Sudan heading? proves to the Sudanese people The best proof of the Muslim Much will depend on what in Sri Lanka that there are countries that are Brotherhood’s incompetence is Burhan does. Will he be able to ri Lanka’s Easter blasts illustrate once prepared to stand by them at what’s happening in the Gaza break away from the usual pattern more the horror of terrorism and the this critical stage. It also reveals Strip. Hamas captured the Strip of ridiculous and selfish behav- dangers it poses to humanity. The human Riyadh’s and Abu Dhabi’s politi- in June 2007 and has no inten- iour that characterised many toll stood at more than 250 killed and 500 cal boldness and determination tion of relinquishing power military officers who have taken injured. to take the initiative, especially despite the numerous disasters power in the Arab world or will he The details of the terrorist operation, in areas where dangerous de- it brought onto the besieged act in a civilised manner? Swhich included nine blasts involving six bomb- velopments could threaten Gulf people of Gaza. Hamas has done Those who rose up against ings targeting churches and luxury hotels, security in particular and Arab nothing besides serving Israel’s al-Bashir and the misery that ac- betrayed a high degree of sophistication attrib- security in general. political interests by burying the companied his 30 years in power uted to the support of international terrorist It would not have been possi- Palestinian national project. have a great responsibility to bear. organisations. ble to get rid of Omar al-Bashir’s In 2013, Saudi Arabia and the We don’t know if there are politi- Three days after the attacks, the Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for the blasts. regime, a backward and corrupt United Arab Emirates, with the cal leaders of a different kind in A local pro-ISIS group, National Towheed one by all standards, without the participation of Kuwait, sup- Sudan. The country needs leaders Jamaat (NTJ), was identified as having executed Sudanese people taking to the ported Egypt when the Egyptians able to learn from the recent past, the attacks. Victims of the attacks were in their streets. People were so deter- decided to get rid of the Muslim that is, since Sudan’s independ- majority Sri Lankan but those killed were of mined to get rid of al-Bashir that Brothers’ regime. Granted, the ence in 1956 and the ensuing civil various religions and nationalities. they held on for five consecutive Brotherhood had taken power governments. In conformity with the hate-filled and totalitar- months. through the ballot box but right Sudan’s problem is that its ian vision of ISIS, the terrorists targeted worship- If removing al-Bashir from from the beginning, there was a political leaders have never been pers who were celebrating Easter in churches. In power was like winning a battle, popular rejection of the Brother- able to shoulder their responsibili- the same way, ISIS terrorists have singled out then winning the war will be the hood. ties. Those leaders facilitated the people of different faiths for death and enslave- elimination of the remnants of a The Muslim Brothers had return of the military to power on ment in parts of the Middle East. In 2018, ISIS claimed responsibility for suicide attacks on regime that enabled the Muslim claimed they were not interested three occasions, in 1958 thanks to churches in Indonesia and the Philippines. Brotherhood, in all its hues and in political power and had hid- Ibrahim Abboud, in 1969 thanks Reflecting a similar mindset, last December, outer cloaks, to infiltrate sensi- den their lust for it quite well to Jaafar Nimeiry and in 1989 NTJ’s fanatical members used hammers to tive positions in the Sudanese but, once they seized power, thanks to al-Bashir. damage Buddhist statues. state, especially related to educa- with outside help, of course, All that the military had done, The terrorist acts and the accompanying images tion, culture and security. they wouldn’t let go of it. especially during Nimeiry’s and of blood-spattered church walls were all the more The important thing remains With Muhammad Morsi’s elec- al-Bashir’s eras, was plunge Sudan shocking in that they were allegedly perpetrated what the Sudanese people tion as president, the Egyptian into backwardness for the sake of in retaliation for the March 15 terrorist attacks have done. These brave people Muslim Brothers had fulfilled the extremist religious current, a against mosques in New Zealand. By claiming to stood up to al-Bashir and said, their dream. Among those who current that remains retrograde defend Islam, the suicide bombers only terribly “Enough!” They knew he had no helped them reach that dream despite the Muslim Brotherhood’s stained its image. more rabbits to pull out of his were senior army officers who efforts to cover it up with shiny Sri Lanka’s Muslim minority should not suffer a backlash in this country with a tradition of magician’s hat. made pacts with the Brother- slogans. domestic strife. Nor should the country’s vital Now, it is possible to start hood before the overthrow of What about the current stage? tourist industry be allowed to be destroyed by the building on solid foundations, Hosni Mubarak. It was a real and What if a civilian government murderous acts. especially if it turns out that Ab- genuine popular revolution that takes power? After Sri Lanka and New Zealand, no place in del Fattah al-Burhan, who stands brought Mubarak down but the It is certain that Sudan needs the world is immune from this type of terrorism. at the head of the Transitional Muslim Brothers knew how to new political leaders of a different It is less the logistics and the recruitment tactics Military Council, is an officer of a exploit it to their advantage. kind and not just army officers than the distorted idea of Islam that creates the different kind, that he is capable Regardless of the objective who say their mission is limited jihadists’ draw. The incendiary speeches of NTJ’s of compromising with civil soci- assessment of the situation to defending the country and Zahran Hashim, who was killed in the bombings, ety and of agreeing to speed up in Egypt after the revolution not to exercise the powers of the were attracting recruits on social media well the formation of a civilian gov- against the Muslim Brotherhood, president and ministers. It is also before the attacks. Whether targeting Christians in the Philip- ernment that would undertake there is no doubt that the Saudi- certain that these new political pines, Yazidis in Iraq or Muslims in New Zealand, a thorough and deep cleansing Kuwaiti-Emirati support played a leaders must prove that Arab sup- terrorists are not representative of any religion. operation to uproot the remnants role in 2013 in preventing the fall port for Sudan is well-placed. They are a global scourge that requires a better of the Muslim Brotherhood in of this Arab country. coordinated global effort to combat and prevent. the recesses of the state. It can’t be denied that Egypt is Khairallah Khairallah is a When, in the 1990s, al-Bashir experiencing a stage of economic Lebanese writer. April 28, 2019 7 Opinion

The benefits of close Iraqi-Saudi ties Published by Al Arab Majid al-Samarrai Publishing House Iraqi political forces loyal to Iran are in a real crisis. They can no longer cover Publisher for the extent of the damage inflicted on Iraq over the past 15 years. and Group Executive Editor

raqi Prime Minister Adel people. Last summer, Iran gies, some of which held internal problems but must Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD Abdul-Mahdi had no shut off the electricity supply allegiance to Tehran at a this stop the government from Editor-in-Chief choice but to react to Basra because Iraq was sacred level transcending the looking ahead and opening to positively to a Saudi behind in paying its power bill. interests of the people of Iraq. the outside world? Or perhaps Oussama Romdhani initiative for openness Saudi Arabia stands out Just a few hours into what is required here is and cooperation, which when it comes to standing by Abdul-Mahdi’s April 17 visit to opening to Iran only and Ihad been going on since the Iraqi people, without Saudi Arabia, doubting voices submitting to it. Managing Editor former Saudi Foreign Minister slogans or ideological agen- and echoes of past animosity Iraqi political forces loyal to Iman Zayat Adel al-Jubeir’s visit to das. There are opportunities were raised by parliamentar- Iran are in a real crisis. They Baghdad. for Saudi investment in Iraq in ians belonging to pro-Tehran can no longer cover for the Deputy Managing Editor That visit in February 2017, energy, food, health, educa- Shia blocs. extent of the damage inflicted and Online Editor the first to Iraq by a Saudi tion and recreational services, The head of the Badr on Iraq over the past 15 years. Mamoon Alabbasi foreign minister since 1990, serious plans to get Iraq out of Organisation bloc insisted on Iran has experimented on the was followed by former Iraqi its ordeal suggest. “the necessity of resolving the Iraqis. It looted their funds, Senior Editor Prime Minister Haider al-Aba- Progress depends on the intentions of the Saudi side dismantled and looted their John Hendel di’s official visit to Riyadh in ability of the Iraqi side to inter- towards Iraq, given what it factories, destroyed their June 2017, which laid the act with this openness. has committed against the Looking at farms and allowed no Chief Copy Editor foundations for the improved Abdul-Mahdi seems to realise Iraqi people and of Iraqi-Saudi development opportu- Richard Pretorius relations between the two that opening up to the Saudi materialising any good relations solely nity to compete with countries. initiative would be beneficial faith on the ground. its goods. Copy Editors from an economic Fortunately, Abdul-Mahdi for the Iraqis but will he be Exchanging visits and So, why not give Stephen Quillen point of view does had based his decisions on his free to act on it without having agreements must be the chance to the Kyle Arensdorf responsibility to the Iraqi to deal with obstacles placed in the interest of the not do justice to right solution, which people. He must come up with by narrow-minded politicians Iraqi people. The Iraq’s historical and is to open strongly to East/West Section Editor practical solutions to Iraq’s whose understanding of country is going strategic importance Arab countries, Mahmud el-Shafey (London) multiple crises, which are politics is limited to only their through a services in the region. particularly Saudi intertwined economically, loyalty to the ­velayat-e faqih crisis and unemployment Arabia? Gulf Section Editor politically and in security. in Iran? is high. The Iraqi govern- Abdul-Mahdi cannot Mohammed Alkhereiji Abdul-Mahdi has a back- Looking at Iraqi-Saudi ment should focus on solving close his eyes to the rapid ground in economics and relations solely from an its internal problems before developments in Washington’s Society and Travel figures indicate a large budget economic point of view does opening up on the outside punitive measures against Sections Editor deficit and a debt of about not do justice to Iraq’s histori- world.” Tehran, the most recent of Samar Kadi $100 billion. cal and strategic importance in The purpose of such state- which was the classification of He must deal with people the region. This importance ments is to place obstacles the Islamic Revolutionary Contributing Editor displaced by war and recon- was overlooked because of the before any move that would Guard Corps as a terrorist Rashmee Roshan Lall struction of cities. There is an disaster brought by Saddam serve the Iraqi people. So, organisation. This develop- urgent need for electricity Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait what happened between Iraq ment left armed Shia factions across the country despite the in 1990. The United States’ and Saudi Arabia after 2003? in Iraq in a state of confusion. Senior Correspondents billions of dollars spent in that occupation of Iraq finished off Wasn’t there a bitter war The US sanctions have gone area in the past 15 years, some whatever was left of Iraq’s between Iraq and Iran from from touching trade and the Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) of which disappeared into the status in the region. 1980-88? Nearly 1 million economy to a much more Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) pockets of corrupt officials The country’s human people died in that war and serious level, affecting politics Kelly Kennedy (Washington) and thieves. resources declined through now relations are flourishing and security, a level that Abdul-Mahdi knows that forced or wilful immigration between the two countries? Abdul-Mahdi cannot ignore. Regular Columnists Iran, which has infiltrated Iraq and the country was subjected Aren’t relations between Claude Salhani countries built on bilateral to a great extent, is far from to the dominance of political Majid al-Samarrai is an Iraqi Yavuz Baydar wanting to help the Iraqi parties with sectarian ideolo- interests? Granted there are writer. Correspondents Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) Hezbollah still has a Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) Roua Khlifi (Tunis) (destructive) role to play Chief Designer Adid Nassar Marwen el-Hmedi

A war to get rid of Hezbollah is highly unlikely because the party has not completed Designers its missions of perpetuating extremism, division and civil strife. Ibrahim Ben Bechir Hanen Jebali hat can the certain percentages. me and therefore Israel may of Hezbollah’s finances. Lebanese do It is at this juncture that succeed in assassinating the In Syria, there is an unde- when their Kuwaiti newspaper Al Rai party’s leadership. This does not clared war between the Rus- Contact editor at: leaders place reported leaked declarations by mean the end of Hezbollah, sians and the Iranians on the [email protected] them face-to- Hezbollah, which place the which does not rely for its one hand, and, on the other, face with Lebanese between a rock and a existence on individuals but it is there is a serious fracture in the Wunbearable choices? hard place. Hezbollah denied part of the Lebanese society forces of the Assad regime On the one hand, they are the authenticity of the leaks but remaining in this country.” between the 5th Battalion led by squeezed with a budget that car- that denial will not erase their Nasrallah added that “provi- Russia and militias led by Iran’s ries painful austerity measures consequences. sions have been made for Islamic Revolutionary Guard Al Arab Publishing House expected to become even more What is the purpose of the worst-case scenarios and in the Corps. Living conditions are Quadrant Building painful. On the other hand, leaks now? Have circumstances event of the assassination of all deteriorating in areas controlled 177-179 Hammersmith Road Hezbollah threatens them with changed this much to expect a (party) leaders. So there is no by the Syrian regime, especially London W6 8BS a fiery summer that would put broad and overwhelming war need to worry.” when it comes to fuel and food the country in danger and wipe against Lebanon and Hezbollah? What are the intended prices. out all their sacrifices to comply Al Rai reported that Hezbollah objectives of these leaks, both The leaked declarations of with the 2019 budget, a budget Secretary-General Hassan internally and externally, even if Nasrallah may be a prelude to Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 that is being heralded with a Nasrallah, speaking during an they have been denied? Tehran’s intention to take Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 great deal of intimidation. internal party meeting, said: Locally, Hezbollah and its military actions by proxy, While politicians are trying to “There are many signs that allies will bear the responsibil- through Hezbollah, or the Iraqi reach a consensus on this year’s Israel is seeking to surprise ity, as the strongest forces inside Al-Hashed al-Shaabi militia or budget and overloading the everyone, like it did in the the circle of power, for the Palestinian organisations US Publisher: Lebanese with messages 2006 war but [Israeli Prime worsening living conditions of against Israel or even the US The Arab Weekly USA LLC. about the need to Minister] Binyamin the Lebanese people. military presence in the region, avoid financial Hezbollah and Netanyahu is not As the financial support turning the region once again [email protected] collapse through its allies will bear like the hesitant Hezbollah receives from the into a hot spot. [email protected] painful austerity Ehud Olmert. Iranian regime dries up, tens of In any case, regional circum- measures, they the responsibility, “Like it had thousands of Shia Lebanese stances and the intersection of Tel: 248-679-6624 are also as the strongest done in Gaza in working in Hezbollah’s civilian, international interests can competing to forces inside the 2008, Israel is social and military institutions encourage Netanyahu to take see who circle of power, for likely to do the are going to suffer the conse- any action, including war, refuses the the worsening living same in 2019 quences of that, in addition to especially after the comfortable most to revise conditions of the with the aim of their suffering from austerity victory of the far-right in recent the military’s Lebanese people. removing the measures in the state budget. Israeli elections. Even though and low-income threat coming from Therefore, the leaks, at this all of these wars might be Subscription & Advertising: people’s wages. Hezbollah forever. time, will push those Lebanese thought of as paving the way for [email protected] The Lebanese have Therefore, the Lebanese — the popular incubator for the “Deal of the Century,” a war Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 become preoccupied with people’s and Hezbollah’s Hezbollah — to give priority to to get rid of Hezbollah is highly how to deal with austerity nurturing environment must defending the existence of the unlikely because the party has measures and even though their prepare for all possibilities.” party over the choice of defend- not completed its missions of Mohamed Al Mufti salaries will not be affected by In a pessimistic look at that ing their living. perpetuating extremism, Marketing & Advertising them, the purchasing power of expected war, rarely felt in At the international level, we division and civil strife that is Manager those salaries will be seriously Nasrallah’s speeches, Hezbol- know that factors are converg- more destructive than any wars affected by expected tax lah’s strongman said: “I may not ing on the implementation of waged by Israel. Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 increases and price hikes, remain among you for a long the next package of US eco- www.alarab.co.uk perhaps to a larger extent than if time and most of the first-line nomic sanctions against Tehran, Adid Nassar is a Lebanese their salaries were reduced by leaders will be gone (killed) with as well as on tightening control writer. 8 April 28, 2019 News & Analysis Algeria Algeria’s army chief takes softer line on protests amid growing power struggle

Lamine Ghanmi whom he said risked plunging the country “into a spiral of violence in anarchy.” Tunis Defending the constitutionally mandated election time frame, lgeria’s powerful army Gaid Salah had said: “To all these chief is struggling to al- (voices), we say that the Algerian lay mass protests seek- people are sovereign in their de- A ing quick governmental cisions and it is up to the people change while proceeding with a to decide on the issue (of regime military-backed plan to gradually change) during the election of a transition power. new president who will have the Algerian Army Chief-of-Staff legitimacy to satisfy the remaining General Ahmed Gaid Salah, who popular and legitimate demands.” has increasingly taken the role of Protest leaders and nearly all de facto leader following the ouster major political parties, including of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika those close to the regime, say it on April 2, defended the country’s is impossible to organise credible electoral process, which would set elections by July 4. Mayors and elections by July 4. judges tasked with overseeing and Algeria’s opposition and protest- approving the polls agree and have ers say that time frame would not pledged to boycott them as part of provide enough time to mount efforts to press for regime change. a serious challenge to a political However, there is also concern establishment that has ruled for that Gaid Salah, who is suspected decades. They sought to force out of vying for control against a rival remaining figures of the Bouteflika military figure, former intelligence regime and proposed a civilian chief Mohamed Mediene, plans to leadership council take over until use the protest movement and op- credible elections can be organised. position to planned elections to While Gaid Salah promised that shore up his own power. “all options are open” to ensure a Gaid Salah could use protests Keeping up the momentum. A demonstrator shouts into a megaphone as others hold flags and banners successful transition, he cautioned as cover to postpone elections be- during anti-government protests in Algiers, April 23. (Reuters) that swift regime change would yond July 4 and extend his power, leave the country vulnerable to in- while in the meantime using the stability and “plots” from hostile judiciary to purge Mediene’s sup- Mediene, Algeria’s military spy time” to stop stirring protests but Gaid Salah. countries. porters from government and busi- chief for 20 years, was fired by the former intelligence director re- “These sectors will be cleaned However, he issued a statement ness positions. Bouteflika in September 2015. mains free. up thanks to the combination of ef- April 23 saying he “is ready to en- The Defence Ministry issued a Mediene had put Gaid Salah “We are operating serenely and forts by all persons of good faith, dorse any constructive proposal statement saying Gaid Salah’s re- on a list of generals to be retired patiently to dismantle the time the consciousness of the Algerian and useful initiative that lead to- marks had been twisted and sub- but Bouteflika kept Gaid Salah on bombs planted by these corrupts people who treasure their home- wards ending the crisis and a last- ject to a “misinformation cam- board as a counterweight to the and corrupters in the various sec- land and the availability of their ing peace,” without mentioning paign.” military intelligence head. Howev- tors and crucial state bodies,” said sons and brothers in the army.” presidential elections. Gaid Salah said Algeria could be er, in a sign of Mediene’s influence, Gaid Salah spurred the authori- “The National Popular Army is the target of “abject plots to under- Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s brother and There is also concern that ties to clamp down on corruption. siding with the people to attain mine its stability and jeopardise its adviser Said Bouteflika turned Gaid Salah, who is suspected Algeria’s richest man, Issad Re- their aims of the expected change security” and that information had to Mediene for help on March 30 of vying for control against brab, and four brothers from the and is continuing its mobilisation been gathered “about a plan… to when the president was under in- influential Kouninef family were to accompany the Algerians in their plunge the country into a dead-end creasing pressure to step down. former intelligence chief arrested in an anti-graft investiga- peaceful marches and ensure their situation.” Gaid Salah denounced the Medi- Mohamed Mediene, plans to tion involving 641 cases that had protection,” Gaid Salah said. “The beginnings of the plan were ene-Said Bouteflika meeting as part use the protest movement been delayed since 2009. His more diplomatic approach traced back to 2015 when the out- of a “plot to launch a smear cam- and opposition to planned was in contrast to previous re- lines and aims of the plot were re- paign against the army.” He warned elections to shore up his Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly marks towards leading protesters, vealed,” he added. Mediene on April 16 “for the last own power. correspondent in Tunis. Viewpoint A wave of arrests amid Algeria’s game of thrones

deferred to the courts, if not that was a subsidiary of Hallibur- He argued that, while people tence and absence of any corrup- arrested in the days ahead. ton, a US firm once led by Dick suspected of corruption and tion suspicion. They could lead a This wave would appear to Cheney before he was US vice- fraud — and their wealth — team — an interim administration Francis Ghilès meet the demands of demonstra- president. After Ould Kaddour’s should be prevented from — that might include Bouchachi tors who for weeks chanted arrest, documents were taken leaving the country, any attempt and other professionals slogans such as “Down with the from his home by police. to set up “an independent system respected for their honesty, System” or “You ate the country, Four cases of alleged corrup- of justice” was fraught with competence, professionalism bunch of thieves.” tion against his former mentor, danger. and lack of corruption. They now ask, “Where is Said?” the once all-powerful Minister of It might be used to distract the Such a government could agree a reference to the most influen- Energy Chakib Khelil, who was people from their fundamental to push back the date of the tial of the former president’s very close to Cheney, have been aim, which is to change the presidential election from early brothers who, until Abdelaziz reopened by the Algerian political system. Those responsi- July to later in the year to revise Bouteflika’s ousting, was Supreme Court. ble for the corruption must be the electoral roll seriously and swirling wave of arguably, with Chief-of-Staff All those cases are very held to account, not “secondary allow new political groupings arrests has mesmer- Ahmed Gaid Salah, one of the different from one another. characters,” notably business- and leaders time to organise. ised Algiers. It two most powerful people in Throwing red meat to the men whose fault was to operate Amending the constitution is swept up senior the country. wolves is no substitute for in a culture of corruption and necessary and probably wiser military officers, Pandering to the serious in-depth investi- opacity. than rewriting a new one. leading business- masses carries gations that take time, Bouchachi also laughed out of The wave of demonstrations men,A a former prime minister, a dangers, however. It an honest criminal court the prime minister’s has not affected oil and gas As they march investigation attempt to convene a conference production and the interim few former ministers and a head is extremely again, Algerians are of the oil monopoly Sonatrach. dangerous to treat system and of national reconciliation on the appointment of the professional Those arrested were deferred Rebrab, who may keeping their professional orders of Gaid Salah. Virtually head of production, Rachid to the courts or detained on have blemishes fingers crossed. A magistrates. none of the opposition parties Hachichi, to run Sonatrach is charges of corruption. but is a genuine political debate of There is no showed up, a sure sign that the good news. This could be the beginning of businessman sorts is under way guarantee of a fair chief-of-staff’s power of convic- Although that appointment what can only be described as the whose acumen is that needs trial in the political tion is waning. was made by the acting head of cleaning of the Augean stables of unquestioned, the consolidating. game of thrones Bouchachi argued that 43 state, no one in Algiers pays any the corruption that characterised same way as the that characterises million Algerians want to see a attention to interim President the 20 years of rule of former Kouninef brothers, Algerian politics today. “true transition towards a Abdelkader Bensalah and his Algerian President Abdelaziz who are best described as The cheerleader for this democratic regime. Today, prime minister because they are Bouteflika. proto-mafiosos. mop-up operation is Gaid everybody agrees that the considered mere straw men of Former Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia has been one of Salah but his own family military should accompany this Gaid Salah. Ouyahia was caught in the the pivots of power for two members are not beyond transition but no one wants that As they march again, Algerians dragnet as were the four Kouni- decades and knows every state reproach. All of which begs the institution to impose an agenda are keeping their fingers crossed. nef brothers but also bona fide secret. question of whether this is not a which maintains the system.” A political debate of sorts is businessmen, including Issad Ould Kaddour was convicted game of liar’s poker. Who would make a credible under way that needs consolidat- Rebrab, whose companies on charges of passing informa- The lawyer who runs the transition team? The answer is ing. employ thousands of people, and tion to the enemy by the military Algerian League for Human obvious: former President the former head of Sonatrach, court of Blida more than a decade Rights, Mustapha Bouchachi, Liamine Zeroual, former Prime Francis Ghilès is an associate Abdelmoumen Ould Kaddour. ago after he was demoted from lost no time in expressing Minister Mouloud Hamrouche fellow at the Barcelona Centre for Other people are expected to be running an oil services company reservations about recent events. are respected for their compe- International Affairs. April 28, 2019 9 News & Analysis Sudan Egypt promotes ‘African solutions’ for Libya, Sudan

Hassan Abdel Zaher Egypt, which has been negative- ly affected by the situation since Libya descended into chaos in 2011, Cairo is sympathetic to Haftar’s view on the need to combat Islamist mili- gypt has taken steps to rally tias. African countries behind ef- “This is why Egypt backs the forts to prevent situations Libyan National Army,” said Heba E in Libya and Sudan from al-Beshbeshi, a researcher at Cairo further deteriorating. University’s Institute of African Cairo hosted summits on Libya Studies and Research. “Libya is and Sudan on April 23, asserting its turning into a very dangerous tran- role in regional politics through its sit point for illegal immigrants and African Union (AU) presidency and terrorists.” seeking to bring African influence Cairo has expressed concern to bear on both crises. about interference by regional ri- At a meeting of the AU Troika vals Turkey and Qatar in Libyan Committee and the AU High-Level affairs. The Libyan National Army Committee on Libya, Egyptian accused Doha and Ankara of fi- President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said nancing Libya’s Islamist militias. Libya, in recent years, has been at Leaders attending the Cairo the centre of major problems, in- meeting renewed their support cluding organised crime, human for Libyan unity and stability and trafficking and foreign interfer- called for the resumption of nego- ence. tiations based on a “home-grown “African countries are the closest African formula.” to Libya, which is why they should The communique issued fol- move to help it eradicate terror- lowing the meeting made clear ism,” Sisi said. the necessity of “ending the chaos brought about by the warring fac- Neighbourly concerns. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (C) hosting African leaders for summit tions, limiting the possession of talks on the upheavals in Sudan and Libya, April 23. (AFP) Egypt’s fear is that unrest in arms to the army and law-enforce- Sudan, following the April 11 ment forces to be able to perform ouster of long-time their duties in maintaining security handing over power to a civilian cally struggling country overcome man trafficking. Egypt said such President Omar al-Bashir, and stability and countering ter- government. its economic problems. The United issues would be exacerbated by could spread beyond the rorism.” The communique warned The African Union asked the Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia unrest. country’s borders. against actions that could prompt Transitional Military Council to announced they would give Khar- Repeating a theme from the pre- “foreign intervention” in Libya. hand over power to a civilian gov- toum $3 billion in economic aid. vious Libya AU meeting, Sisi called Concerns are rising among Libya Sisi also led a consultative sum- ernment within 15 days or Sudan The hope in Cairo is that other for “African solutions to African observers after Libyan National mit of Sudan’s regional partners to would face suspension from the countries would follow suit. problems.” Army Field-Marshal Khalifa Haf- assess developments and create organisation. Egypt convinced the Egypt’s fear is that unrest in Su- “This is an important Egyptian tar ordered his troops to march consensus on solutions. Attend- AU to extend the deadline to three dan, following the April 11 ouster foreign policy line which prevents on Tripoli to fight Islamist militias ing the meeting were the leaders months. of long-time President Omar al- foreign interference that can exac- controlling the city. of Chad, Djibouti, Congo, Rwanda, “We agreed on the need for Bashir, could spread beyond the erbate problems, not solve them,” While Haftar’s troops have se- Somalia and South Africa. speeding up the return of the con- country’s borders. Hundreds of said Mohamed al-Shazly, a former cured control over the country’s Sisi said this was a critical time stitutional system in Sudan through thousands of Sudanese refugees Egyptian ambassador in Sudan. eastern and southern regions, for Sudan, which made it necessary a political democratic process led live in Egypt and Cairo is concerned “Egypt only wants to lead fellow there were fears the move on Trip- for other African countries to show by the Sudanese themselves with that more Sudanese citizens will African nations in helping Sudan oli could lead to a prolonged con- solidarity. backing from the AU and the inter- flee to Egypt. out of its current problems.” flict that would undercut political Summit participants agreed on national community,” Sisi said. Some areas of Sudan’s border negotiations aimed at restoring the need to grant Sudan’s Transi- He called on the international with Egypt are hotspots for smug- Hassan Abdel Zaher is an Egyptian peace to the country. tional Military Council time before community to help the economi- gling weapons into Egypt and hu- reporter based in Cairo.

Viewpoint Sudanese caught between military and Islamists and they want neither

udan’s Transitional tional Criminal Court. in Turkey and Qatar. The protesters may want to cut Military Council is Many opponents of political It is in the utmost interest of the path of military rule in their Mohamed facing a delicate Islam want to get rid of al- the Turkish-Qatari axis to have country and not repeat the Aboelfadl dilemma. It is under Bashir’s legacy. However, the Sudan’s Islamists retake the experience of other countries pressure to hand power Islamist camp in Sudan is initiative in the country because but the confusion reigning to a civilian govern- determined to return to its what is at stake for the axis is the among the civilian forces could Sment and must get rid of the hegemonic dominance. fate of one of the most important see Islamist forces take advan- Islamist legacy of deposed Most of the regimes that had political projects that have tage of the lack of organisation in President Omar al-Bashir. governed Sudan over the past emerged in the region in the last the street and take power with This is likely to prolong decades were in one way or two decades. tools that look democratic. Sudan’s crisis, now that the another connected to political The immediate aim of the A part of the Sudanese says Transitional Military Council Islam. The Islamist current in supporters of the Turkish-Qatari democratic rule is better for (TMC) has received a grace Sudan is not limited to its most axis in Sudan is to tear the cover them, even if it results in having period of three months from the visible component, which is the provided by Egypt, through its the Islamists return to power African Union. Muslim Brotherhood. The presidency of the African Union, since they have infiltrated many The number of protesters Islamist movement includes to the TMC. political parties and groups. camping in front of the Ministry Islamists belonging to Salafist What we are witnessing in Other Sudanese have not forgot- of Defence in Khartoum has and Sufi organisations, in Sudan is a very delicate tug-of- ten that it was the democratic increased to pressure the TMC to addition to all hues of the war between two currents: one rule of Sadiq al-Mahdi that had accelerate the handover of Muslim Brotherhood. that wants to exclude the led al-Bashir and his Islamist power. The TMC says it has the It is difficult to talk about Islamists from power and the allies to stage a coup in June “sovereign authority” only, since precise categorisations in Sudan. other one that wants their 1989. the presidency of the Council of Researchers have become used return. With the abundant resources Ministers, the government to grouping all Islamist tenden- What makes the task of the held by al-Bashir’s cronies and apparatus and all executive cies in Sudan under the label of TMC very difficult is that both their strong presence in the power are fully civilian. the Islamist Movement in Sudan. rivals have a common denomina- institutions of the so-called deep The TMC tried to appease The Islamist bloc, however, is tor and that is not allowing the state, the Islamists could win by protesters by announcing the not homogenous. It even military to monopolise power a landslide any elections hastily resignation of three of its mem- includes extremist militant and and making it the target of their called at a time when the army bers who have Islamist leanings. terrorist groups. political arrows. These goals and security services have not Attiyah Issawi, a Sudanese affairs The Islamist components may work in favour of the Islamist been cleared of them. expert, said the TMC “is trying to compete with and even fight movement as it comes together The Sudanese may end up take control of the situation and each other but they come to face a common ordeal. making a big mistake by desper- respond quickly to the demands together when political Islam is The fact that the civil forces ately running behind civilian of the demonstrators and in danger. This is an instance in have camped on their positions rule and getting rid of the reassure the international which political Islam sees itself in their dealings with the TMC military regime quickly and at community by giving continuous in danger in Sudan. and continue to pressure it to any price. If they do that, the assurances that it will hand over What makes political differen- speed up the transfer of power to fruits of their revolution will be power to civilians at the earliest tiation among most traditional a civilian government seems to harvested by exactly those they What we are opportunity.” Sudanese parties difficult is they have borne some fruit. were trying to get rid of in the witnessing in Sudan He said the resignations were all have an Islamist bent to The remaining pockets of first place. acceptable to the street but the varying degrees. During the rule al-Bashir’s regime, including After having come a long way is a very delicate protesters demand more far- of al-Bashir, the Islamist mother figures who occupied important in driving a wedge between the tug-of-war between reaching measures. movement took root in the very positions in the army, are being Islamists and the military, the two currents: one that Issawi said the TMC would try fabric of society. removed one by one. Sudanese people need to come to put on trial some former Other groups will try to seize The civilian current says that together to lay the foundations wants to exclude the regime figures to appease the the opportunity of the removal the handover of power by the for a new Sudan free of both the Islamists from power demonstrators. It is highly of al-Bashir from power to get rid TMC is a central objective but Islamists and the military. unlikely, though, that the TMC of groups with flagrant Islamist this very step may be the one and the other one that will hand al-Bashir and other leanings and who have support that will bring al-Bashir’s cronies Mohamed Aboelfadl is an wants their return. Islamist figures to the Interna- bases outside Sudan, especially back to power. Egyptian writer. 10 April 28, 2019 News & Analysis Gulf

Viewpoint Under pressure from US, Iran brings Houthi rebels into the fray

military technology. Have the Houthis modified their Borkan missiles? Did Iran help them Iman Zayat develop the technology and provide training for them to target Saudi Arabia and the UAE? If so, he Iran-backed Houthi Iran’s actions could be seen and rebels have added to dealt with as an act of war by tensions between proxy. This would further Tehran’s Washington and troubles, which include a worsen- Tehran, threatening to ing economic and security strike US allies in the situation. Tregion should violence escalate in Last, whether or not the Yemen’s port city of Hodeidah, Houthis’ recent threats against where a fragile ceasefire is in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab place. Emirates are serious, it is clear that “Our missiles are capable of the group is not ready for peace in reaching Riyadh and beyond Yemen. Despite Houthi leaders Riyadh, to Dubai and Abu Dhabi,” telling UN Special Envoy to Yemen Houthi leader Abdelmalik al- Martin Griffiths that they are Houthi said to the militia-run Al committed to a political settle- Masirah TV. ment, their hostile acts and “It is possible to target strategic, inflammatory rhetoric betray their Shared concerns. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (R) meets with vital, sensitive and influential true intentions. South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit in Abu Dhabi, April 23. (WAM) targets in the event of any escala- In Yemen, while much of the tion in Hodeidah,” he added. “We focus is on Hodeidah, it is impor- are able to strongly shake the tant to remember that violence is Emirati economy.” raging across the country. UAE aims for regional stability in Strategically situated on the Red Recently, clashes in Dhale gover- Sea coast, Hodeidah port serves as norate forced the International an entry point for most of Yemen’s Rescue Committee to suspend and boosting relations with South Sudan humanitarian aid and commercial relocate its critical, life-saving imports. The town is central to the work, said Frank McManus, the United Nations’ efforts to imple- organisation’s Yemen country Faith Salama va Kiir Mayardit, continue Emirati transition following the ouster of ment a ceasefire agreed to by director. efforts to increase investment and long-time President Omar al-Ba- warring parties in December, which Complicating the situation in provide economic support in the shir. has failed to go into effect due to Yemen are the Houthis’ non-con- Abu Dhabi Horn of Africa to improve regional With a changing political land- the Houthis repeatedly delaying ventional war methods. The group stability. scape in the Horn of Africa and Red their forces’ withdrawal. is reportedly recruiting child he United Arab Emirates They also demonstrate the Unit- Sea region, Arab Gulf countries, Al-Houthi’s threats of missile fighters, using human shields, and South Sudan signed ed Arab Emirates’ increased efforts particularly Saudi Arabia and the strikes, which came shortly after diverting humanitarian aid and agreements to increase to use economic diplomacy to United Arab Emirates, are shifting the United States removed its utilising landmines, making T cooperation and encour- forge ties in the rapidly changing attention to their western flank, sanctions waivers on Iranian oil everyday life even more danger- age investment between the two Horn of Africa region. increasing investment and looking exports — a devastating blow to ous for citizens across the coun- countries, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince The agreements with South to secure ports and expanding dip- Tehran’s economy — are part of a try. Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al- Sudan, announced April 23, lomatic ties. larger regional strategy. The Houthis’ reliance on Nahyan said. came as Abu Dhabi and Riyadh Much like Iran, the Houthis landmines has been especially The agreements, signed during a pledged assistance to Sudan to Faith Salama is a Lebanese often issue threats to gain geopo- harmful, leading to hundreds of visit by South Sudan President Sal- help secure the country’s political journalist. litical leverage over their adversar- civilian casualties since mid-2017, ies. Sometimes these threats a recent Human Rights Watch border on the absurd. Recently, report stated. Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, another “Houthi-laid landmines have not Saudi-Emirati aid package offers high-ranking Houthi figure, spoke only killed and maimed numerous of emptying some 1 million barrels civilians but they have prevented of oil into the Red Sea, which vulnerable Yemenis from harvest- much-needed lifeline to Sudan would trigger an unprecedented ing crops and drawing clean water environmental disaster. desperately needed for survival,” In mid-2017, Houthi Deputy said Priyanka Motaparthy, acting Faith Salama are sending a positive message to to Cairo before being deposed, the Spokesman Aziz Rashid made an emergencies director at Human the Sudanese people and attempt- two countries agreed to set up a even more menacing threat, Rights Watch. ing to connect with Khartoum’s new security cooperation framework to warning that, if the war in Yemen “Mines have also prevented aid Abu Dhabi ruling quarter, a priority given that curb the smuggling of arms, mili- was not brought to an end, the groups from bringing food and most of al-Bashir’s aides with whom tants and banned substances across rebels would “go for conquering health care to increasingly hungry audi Arabia and the United Arab countries had direct ties with the borders. Saudi cities.” and ill Yemeni civilians.” Arab Emirates will send a $3 are out of the picture. With its economy in recession, Since war broke out in 2015, the The situation in Yemen is billion aid package to Sudan, Located at the crossroads of sub- Sudan needs to forge strategic eco- Houthis have routinely fired already dire but the Houthis S throwing a lifeline to the em- Saharan Africa and the Middle East, nomic ties more than ever. Howev- missiles at Saudi Arabia, including appear ready to exacerbate the battled country after mass protests Sudan’s geographic position puts er, the protests, which were initially at army bases and oil facilities. conflict simply to help out their led to the ouster of long-time Suda- it in the centre of one of the most focused on the economic crisis, may The rebels’ new threats, friends in Tehran. This comes as nese President Omar al-Bashir. critical regions of the world. It bor- aggravate the situation if urgent re- however, raise four key points: no surprise and was predicted in a The two Gulf countries will de- ders Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, South forms are not undertaken. First, not only are the Houthis March commentary in this posit $500 million in the Central Sudan, the Central African Repub- Since South Sudan broke away supported by Tehran, they operate publication headlined, “How will Bank of Sudan and send the rest in lic, Chad and Libya and sits among from Khartoum in 2011, Sudan has as part of Iran’s larger proxy web Iran respond if the US leaves the form of food, medicine and pe- some of the world’s major trading been struggling to recover from los- across the region. This means that nuclear agreement?” troleum products, their state news sea lanes and land routes — charac- ing three-quarters of its oil exports. when Tehran feels threatened, In that commentary, it was agencies said in parallel statements. teristics that make good relations Prior to the split, the country had such as by the United States’ noted that “The United States’ The aid package, the first of its with Khartoum vital. been on an upward economic tra- decision to end sanctions waivers move against the Iran accord could kind for Sudan from Arab Gulf jectory with nominal GDP per capita for their oil exports, the Houthis embolden an already aggressive countries in several years, “is to more than quadrupling from 1999- and other proxies, including Tehran, leading it to increase its strengthen (Sudan’s) financial posi- Through the aid package, 2010 because of increased oil ex- Hezbollah in Lebanon, join the destabilising tactics through its tion, ease the pressure on the Suda- Saudi Arabia and the UAE ports and foreign direct investment. fray, escalating their rhetoric ties to terror groups.” The column nese pound and increase stability in are sending a positive After the country’s oil revenue against Washington to exert more further noted that Tehran would the exchange rate,” the Saudi Press message to the Sudanese decreased and austerity measures pressure. use its proxies to “exacerbate Agency said. people and attempting to were introduced, it lost more than Second, to issue serious threats existing conflicts in the region and The diplomatic outreach by Saudi connect with Khartoum’s 15% of its GDP in 18 months. against Arab Gulf countries, the lead to new ones outside of Syria Arabia and the United Arab Emir- new ruling quarter. The country’s economic crisis Houthis are aiming to collect and Yemen.” ates comes amid major political was compounded by deep-seated information on “sensitive” and Today, it is clear Iran’s proxies shifts in Sudan, whose stability has Sudan is home to the two tribu- corruption, economic mismanage- “vital” sites in Saudi Arabia and throughout the region are even direct implications on seaports on taries of the Nile River, which reach ment and the effects of US sanc- the United Arab Emirates, specifi- more dangerous than the coun- the Red Sea and broader Arabian confluence at Khartoum before tions, which had been in place for 20 cally oil and economic installa- try’s nuclear ambitions. Therefore, Peninsula. flowing into Egypt. years. The United States lifted the tions. This comes as no surprise to clip the wings of the Islamic The head of Sudan’s Military Egypt, a close ally of Saudi Arabia sanctions in October 2017 but many and it was all but admitted by the Republic, it is necessary to target Transitional Council, Lieutenant- and the United Arab Emirates, has a investors continued to shun Sudan, Houthis in 2017. all of its militia proxies, even those General Abdel Fattah Burhan, has historically rocky relationship with which is still listed by Washington as These hostile efforts clearly pose that falsely claim to be legitimate strong ties to the two Gulf countries, Khartoum. Tensions have grown a state sponsor of terrorism. a threat to regional security, “political players.” which likely helped open communi- between Sudan and Egypt due to dif- In recent years, Sudan’s cash- helping explain the Saudi-led Political players are not usually cations after al-Bashir’s ouster April ferences over the Grand Ethiopian strapped government has expanded coalition’s position in Yemen in armed to the teeth, let alone 11. Burhan previously oversaw Su- Renaissance Dam project and the its money supply to cover the cost support of the internationally willing to use missiles to threaten dan’s forces in Yemen, working as disputed border territory known as of expensive subsidies on fuel, recognised government of Presi- neighbouring countries. part of the joint Saudi-UAE coalition the Halayeb Triangle. wheat and pharmaceuticals, driving dent Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi. to fight the Iran-backed Houthis. However, Sudan and Egypt have up annual inflation to 73% and caus- Third, there are key unanswered Iman Zayat is Managing Editor Through the aid package, Saudi cooperated on security matters. In ing the Sudanese pound to plunge questions about the Houthis’ of The Arab Weekly. Arabia and the United Arab Emirates March, during al-Bashir’s last visit against the dollar. April 28, 2019 11 News & Analysis Iraq How will increased US pressure on Tehran affect Iraq?

Manuel Langendorf The end of the sanctions waivers does not apply to Iraq, a major oil producer, but Baghdad has relied London on an exemption to import Iranian gas and electricity. Iraqi officials he Trump administration have said the local energy sec- has implemented additional tor needed Iranian supply to cope measures to increase pres- with power shortages. There has T sure on Iran, announcing been no indication from Washing- the end of waivers for the import of ton on whether it plans to end the Iranian oil. exemption for Iraq, which expires “Today I am announcing that we in June. will no longer grant any exemp- Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul- tions,” US Secretary of State Mike Mahdi said Iraq was not part of the Pompeo said. The waivers allowed sanctions issue and would wait to eight countries to import Iranian see what happened after the US oil. The decision follows a recent decision was implemented. An designation of Iran’s Islamic Revo- Iraqi Oil Ministry spokesman said lutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a any decision to raise oil production foreign terrorist organisation. levels would be taken collectively Limited options. A man counts Iranian rials at a currency exchange shop in Basra. (Reuters) The IRGC designation is “signifi- by OPEC members. cant,” said Muhanad Seloom, hon- One day after Pompeo’s remarks, orary research fellow at the Institute Iranian lawmakers on April 23 de- Powerful Iraqi politicians rejected because the US has so much force tween,” said Seloom, adding that of Arab and Islamic Studies at the clared the entire US military a ter- the US sanctions against Iran but Iran is not capable of confronting,” Iraq was not in a position to become University of Exeter. “It gives the rorist entity, a particularly relevant others warned of the dangers of he said. “the strong country in the mid- United States legal cover to target issue for US forces in Iraq and non-compliance, with one likening Amid this, Iraq is trying to change dle” but could act as a messenger. the IRGC” inside and outside Iran. Syria, where the IRGC commands it to “playing with fire.” its position from being a playground “There is some flirtation between Iran reacted with defiance to strong influence. Looming over an increase in ten- to becoming a mediator, said Man- Saudi Arabia and Iran through Iraq,” Pompeo’s announcement. Ira- “Iran may look at Iraq as a way to sions between Washington and sour. he said. nian Supreme Leader Ayatollah undermine US interests. We know Tehran is the threat of violence be- Mansour said despite glimpses Ali Khamenei said in a speech that that Iran is much more powerful tween armed groups close to Iran Abdul-Mahdi said Iraq of hope, Iraq faces many internal than the US in Iraq,” said Mansour. and US forces. Iran can rely on a vast “such attempts will lead nowhere was not part of the challenges. “Because the state is and we are capable of exporting as If the escalation of tensions turned network of heavily armed groups weak and governance is weak and much oil as we need and want.” into a zero-sum issue between Iran and allied politicians in Iraq. sanctions issue and would the actors are fighting with each An IRGC commander said Iran and the United States in Iraq, it “Iran will pursue, as much as wait to see what happened other Iraq is unable to have a single would interrupt the global flow of would turn into a problem for the possible, political and legal ways after the US decision was foreign policy when it comes to ne- oil through the Strait of Hormuz if it Iraqi government, which does not to combat US influence,” said Man- implemented. gotiating at the regional level,” he was prevented from using it. want to choose between the two sour, referring to efforts in the Iraqi said. Iran’s economy is highly depend- sides, he said. parliament to pass legislation man- On April 20, parliamentary offi- Direct armed conflict between ent on oil revenue and Tehran will Seloom said Iran’s relationship dating US troops to leave. If that cials from regional countries gath- Tehran and Washington remains need to find ways to continue to with key Iraqi politicians, such as does not work, he said, it can resort ered in Baghdad. The meeting was unlikely. Speaking to Reuters, Ira- export oil, which may include illicit Hadi al-Amiri and Abdul-Mahdi to violent tactics. a rare occasion in which Saudi and nian Foreign Minister Mohammad methods such as smuggling, said goes back decades but stressed Seloom said he was sceptical of Iranian officials attended the same Javad Zarif said he did not believe Renad Mansour, research fellow at that the United States also com- the likelihood of an armed con- event. Since taking office last year, US President Donald Trump “wants the Chatham House think-tank in mands much influence in the frontation between Iran-linked Abdul-Mahdi has struck trade and war… but that doesn’t exclude him London. “This will impact Iraq be- country, for example by re-estab- groups and US troops, calling it an political agreements with Jordan, being basically lured into one.” cause a lot of this will go to Iraq and lishing its military presence since “extreme option.” “Even if the US Saudi Arabia, Iran and Syria. from [there] elsewhere,” Mansour 2014 and controlling Iraq’s interna- attacks Iran… I don’t see Iran ask- “Both Iran and Saudi Arabia Manuel Langendorf is a writer said. tional financial transactions. ing anyone attacking US interests are happy to have someone in be- focusing on the MENA region. Viewpoint Syria’s Assad and Iraq’s PMF at the service of Iran

similar meetings between Alfayy- the government is seen to be adh and Assad. Two months prior, backtracking on its earlier commit- Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim ment to neutrality in relations Nazli Tarzi al-Jaafari and Syrian Foreign with its allies. Minister Walid Muallem met to The threat of ISIS over which raise their glasses in celebrating Assad and Iraq’s PMF united “the taste of victory” against ISIS. suggests a lack of options for weak The two officials discussed governments that Iran exploits, as reopening trade borders and joint opposed to warming relations. efforts to combat terrorism. While Iran uses the tragedies of In parallel to those conversa- the Arab world to justify its broad tions were talks of continued extraterritorial activities, a far military support from the PMF to more compelling explanation lies Assad, which analysts viewed as in the threat of regime collapse the sole purpose behind Alfayy- that could reverse much of its adh’s visit. political fortunes in Syria and raq’s Popular Mobilisation What unites the two powers is Iraq. Forces has demonstrated in their reliance on Iran. However, What makes Alfayyadh an Iraq and Syria why its relations between Iraq and Syria important choice to lead official presence in politics mat- were noticeably strained under In the same orbit. Syrian President Bashar Assad (R) meets with visits to Damascus is his relation- ters. former Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Iraqi National Security Adviser Falih Alfayyadh in Damascus, ship to Iran and its proxies in Iraq. The Popular Mobilisation al-Maliki’s rule. Maliki blamed April 14. (AFP) The controversy surrounding the IForces (PMF) upheld its promise of Assad for allowing foreign fighters choice of Alfayyadh rages on, fighting for Syrian President to cross from Syria into Iraq, a as warming relations between two Former Iraqi Prime Minister despite criticism from across the Bashar Assad’s ailing forces in force that formed the genesis of neighbours, when, in fact, the Haider al-Abadi’s wavering stance political spectrum of the growing Syria following Mosul’s recapture ISIS. After the 2011 Syrian uprising, latest talks reaffirmed Assad’s on the PMF’s extraterritorial reach alliance between Assad and Iraqi from the Islamic State (ISIS), Maliki, like Iran, has backed indebtedness to the PMF — and is a thing of the past. Current militias. binding Assad and the Iran-backed Assad. Iran by extension — for having Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi Assad’s alliance with Iraq’s PMF closer together. In meetings past and present, helped rescue the regime from exhibits a more relaxed approach, militias predates Alfayyadh’s Iraqi national security adviser safeguarding sovereignty has been collapse. allowing figures such as Alfayyadh appointment and the institution- Falih Alfayyadh arrived in Damas- a focal point in talks between Iraq’s constitution celebrates to do Iran’s work in Syria. alisation of the PMF. In 2014, new cus on April 14 for talks with Assad Alfayyadh and Assad. Syrian state the sovereignty of states and America lost even more sway militias were formed in Iraq with concerning joint security in the television reported the shared prohibits cross-border interfer- after US President Donald Trump the aim of fighting for Assad. phase after ISIS. need to safeguard the independ- ence but laws are no deterrence in ordered the surprise withdrawal of The alliance is not about the Alfayyadh is the former head of ence of both countries from Iraq. Since 2003, governments 2,000 US troops from Syria in ways Iraq and Syria have united the PMF and is a close ally of Iran. “foreign interference” in light of have struggled to effectively December, allowing Iran to deepen independently to protect their His recent nomination as Interior regional developments. command loyalty from all armed its reach. If the record of the past sovereignty. It speaks to Assad’s minister divided parliament “Syria’s strength and victory is a groups and reassert themselves ten years is anything to go by, a and the PMF’s continued support because of his vocal allegiance to triumph for Iraq” as much as it is against US and Iranian domina- stronger Iran does not necessarily of Iran that in exchange guaran- Tehran. Despite withdrawing his for Syria, Alfayyadh said and “any tion. Despite that, Baghdad translate into a stronger Syria or tees the survival of weak states. nomination, Alfayyadh has Iraqi military achievements will happily ousted certain countries Iraq. demonstrated an ability to be” in Syria’s interests too, the — namely Turkey and Saudi Arabia By sending legions of fighters to Nazli Tarzi is an independent influence the Iraqi government, Syrian Arab News Agency — for meddling in its affairs, while Syria and propping up Assad’s journalist, whose writings and conducting regular visits to reported. downplaying the encroachment of regime, Baghdad hopes to reha- films focus on Iraq’s ancient Damascus on its behalf. The persistence of these talks bigger actors such as Iran and bilitate its image internationally as history and contemporary political Last December witnessed has been celebrated in the media Russia. a weak state. In practice, however, scene. 12 April 28, 2019 News & Analysis Syria Idlib proves problematic for diplomats in Kazakhstan

Simon Speakman Cordall ing to secure a buffer zone along its border — the fate of Idlib and what the United Nations estimated to be Tunis 3 million inhabitants was far from certain. elegations from Turkey, However, respite was offered Russia and Iran convened through a Russia-brokered deal in alongside representatives which Turkey committed to over- of the Syrian government seeing the withdrawal of HTS and Stubborn differences. Syria’s UN Ambassador Bashar Jaafari (C) speaks with other participants D (Reuters) and the country’s armed opposi- other rebel groups and all heavy during a session of the peace talks on Syria in Nur-Sultan, April 26. tion in Kazakhstan to revive efforts weapons from a demilitarised zone towards drafting a new constitution along Idlib’s borders. governs it,” Senior Military Analyst tions to merge into the more ‘mod- indiscriminately, including against for the Syrians and address the issue That hasn’t happened and the Syr- Omar Lamrani from risk analysis erate’ coalition of Syrian opposition civil infrastructure. Peaceful people of the rebel-held province of Idlib. ian government and Russian forces and intelligence consulting firm forces acting as Turkish proxies,” he die,” he said. Negotiators issued a statement have carried out air attacks to push Stratfor said. “There are, however, said. “This has so far failed though “Russia is frustrated that HTS con- April 26 expressing “serious concern back the rebels. nonstate-level structures of govern- because HTS remains violently op- tinues to operate from Idlib and has with the attempts of the terrorist An apparent oversight by devel- ance in place run by various militias posed to any kind of future reconcil- placed pressure on Turkey to crack organisation Hayat Tahrir al-Sham opers at Instagram led to the Syrian and councils with their own set of iation with the Syrian government.” down on them,” Lamrani said. “This (HTS) to increase its control over presidency’s site being closed April rules and regulations, the largest be- Moreover, Turkey was unlikely to has also given Russia and the Syrian the area and reaffirmed the deter- 23, an act Damascus quickly labelled longing to HTS.” confront Idlib’s jihadists militarily government a pretext to continue mination to continue cooperation in as “war” because wresting control Given how the rebels are en- “while Erdogan’s priority is to estab- targeting the province.” order to ultimately eliminate [the Is- of the rebel provinces from the re- trenched in the province, Turkish lish a secure zone along the entire Damascus particularly, Lamrani lamic State] ISIS, al-Nusra Front and bels would present a much-needed claims that it could impose a cease- length of Turkey’s southern border said, “has been just as guilty as HTS all other individuals, groups, under- propaganda victory. fire on HTS and other rebel groups with Syria to prevent infiltration by of violating the ceasefire agreement takings and entities associated with However, in the way stands HTS, in Idlib were likely overly ambitious. Kurdish militants,” Strack said. in the sense that they have contin- al-Qaeda or ISIS.” Turkey and potentially the regime’s “HTS is powerful enough that However, after nine years of war, ued their attacks.” Idlib has consistently proven sponsors in Moscow, eager to avoid Turkey cannot simply order it to do it is unclear how much leeway Anka- Quoted April 25 by al-Monitor, problematic to the Russian-led the propaganda backlash resulting what Ankara wants without risk- ra will be granted in resolving its in- retired Ambassador Mithat Rende’s peace process. Long a stronghold for from being blamed for a humanitari- ing a serious backlash,” Lamrani terests in Syrian territory. Speaking predictions for Turkish ambitions in the formerly al-Qaeda-linked HTS, an disaster as thousands of refugees said. “Turkey has tried to prop up April 24 to the UN Security Council, Idlib were grim. the Syrian province, which borders flee the fighting. the other rebel groups in Idlib as a Russian Deputy Envoy to the United “It looks like Russia and the re- Turkey, has become a dumping UN Senior Humanitarian Adviser counterweight but that strategy has Nations Vladimir Safronkov said the gime will tell Turkey in the end that ground for surrendering opposition for Syria Najat Rochdi said that as largely failed to yield significant re- status quo in Idlib was not viable it has failed to achieve its end of the fighters and their families. many as 106,000 people had fled sults.” option, posing risks to Syria and the bargain and take matters into their With regime control of large parts Idlib since January as clashes be- Columb Strack, principal Mid- region. own hands because their patience of Syria secured by 2018, Idlib pre- tween the rebels and the Syrian gov- dle East and North Africa analyst “The situation in Idlib remains has run out,” Rende said. sented a clear problem. Controlled ernment and its allies escalated. at Risk Consultants/IHS Markit, volatile. Militants from Hayat Tahrir by rebels but sought after by Da- “Idlib is lawless in the sense that agreed. “Turkey has been trying to al-Sham do not cease to attack the Simon Speakman Cordall is a mascus and Turkey — the latter hop- no state government controls or persuade HTS and other jihadist fac- governmental forces. They strike freelance writer. Renewed insurgency in Daraa highlights Western failures

danian border guards, the SF lost In exchange, rebels could remain to destroy the rebel elite so the mistake, no matter whether it legitimacy, cohesion and capacity. in their homes unmolested and, in rank and file could be dispersed is looked at as a narrow security Despite an American-Jordanian- some cases, were given local au- and returned to quiescence as the question or a broader political Kyle Orton Russian ceasefire put in place in tonomy, albeit after they officially dictatorship resolidifies. one and this is even more true for July 2017 and an expectation that joined regime structures and took The same month, the Interna- Israel. the United States would prevent regime and Iranian patronage. tional Crisis Group (ICG) made Putting aside humanitarian n military terms, the fall Iranian forces nearing Israel from Rejectionist rebels were deported clear how grim the situation was. considerations, it should have of Daraa, in south-western another border, the rebels were to Idlib. The displaced have not returned been obvious Assad was incapable Syria, to Iranian and regime left to face the pro-Assad coali- Daraa’s fall was a devastating because whatever resources the of stabilising the area. The regime forces last July eliminated the tion alone when the final offensive symbolic blow to a rebellion that regime has are devoted, not to pro- remains brittle and short of men. last insurgent-held pocket came in the summer of 2018. had been strategically defeated viding services, but to reinstitut- If the escalating turmoil in the not dominated by jihadists. Unlike the hard-fought Aleppo some time before. It was read by ing political terror, something south draws in regime resourc- IPolitically, it had profound effects, battle in late 2016, an exhausted, most outside powers as the begin- which, as ICG bluntly notes, es, it will open vulnerabili- demonstrating American disen- demoralised rebellion in Daraa ning of the end of the war. They “Russia is doing nothing ties elsewhere, perhaps gagement and Israel’s mispercep- surrendered quickly after token were wrong. to prevent.” with the Islamic State tions of the Syrian landscape, resistance. Writing for Al-Jumhuriya in It is little surprise The American in the Badiya Desert particularly Russia’s role in it. Under the Russia-mediated February, Fidaa al-Saleh noted that that these condi- acquiescence to the deserts of the Recent signs of renewed insur- “reconciliation” agreement, rebels numerous civil society activists tions of economic Assad-Iran system south-east and gency in Daraa, however, underline turned over heavy weapons and had “disappeared” and others ruin and suffo- taking over Daraa east, where Assad how far from over Syria’s war is accepted state authority, saving the were brazenly killed. Dozens of cating political has been, as could is at risk of losing and how badly the West has mis- regime a grinding military opera- rebel commanders were arrested repression have have been easily territorory, with handled the crisis. tion to conquer the area and the and many were assassinated, as provoked renewed predicted, a grave al-Qaeda’s de- Daraa is the “cradle of the expenditure of its perennially over- with Ahmad Hikmat Hamura. resistance in Daraa. rivative, which has revolution.” It was there, in March stretched manpower to occupy it. The point, Saleh explained, was It is what did it the mistake. proven capable of 2011, that children were tortured first time. sophisticated attacks after they daubed graffiti on their Around the time of the in crucial regime areas of schoolhouse, including the “Arab revolution’s anniversary this western Syria. spring” slogan “The people want to year, at extraordinary personal Since Assad cannot be relied topple the regime,” triggering the risk, large-scale anti-regime on to suppress terrorism or even first protests of the uprising. protests returned to Daraa. A provide basic stability, there is no Syrian President Bashar Assad’s month earlier, on February 11, the conceivable benefit to US and Gulf regime cracked down fiercely but Popular Resistance announced moves towards re-embracing him. within a year the province had itself, an armed movement using Such moves undermine the stated risen again and by the end of 2013 FSA-style symbolism. policy of US President Donald large areas were controlled by the After initial doubts over its exist- Trump to apply “maximum pres- rebellion. In early 2014, the Free ence, the Popular Resistance has sure” against the Iranian regime, Syrian Army (FSA) rebels com- attacked a series of checkpoints as does allowing Tehran to expand bined as the Southern Front (SF) and assassinated several pro-Assad its influence, as in Daraa. and created a model of humane officials in Daraa over the last two What Daraa showed was that governance that marginalised months. The Popular Resistance Trump was unwilling to compete jihadists and settled civil-military blew up a convoy of pro-Assad with Iran on the ground, where matters. forces on April 12. Four days later, it counts. Sanctions cannot alter The SF’s backers — the United insurgency returned to Damascus this reality or that the “maximum States, Jordan and Israel — gave via “Saraya Qasioun,” which has pressure” policy is fundamentally very limited assistance. Prevented carried out subsequent attacks. hollow while Assad is in power. for years from fighting the pro-As- The American acquiescence to sad coalition, while simultaneously Bumpy ride. A young boy rides his bicycle in Daraa as a gate the Assad-Iran system taking over Kyle Orton is a Middle left unprotected from air attacks ornated with images of Syrian President Bashar Assad (L) and his Daraa has been, as could have East analyst. Follow him and forced to act essentially as Jor- late father Hafez Assad is seen in the background. (AFP) been easily predicted, a grave on Twitter: @KyleWOrton. April 28, 2019 13 News & Analysis Egypt Egyptians approve constitutional changes but political apathy remains

Amr Emam Sisi took centre stage in the vote, with the amendments including a transitional article that extends his Cairo current 4-year term by two years — ending in 2024 — and makes him package of constitutional eligible to run for re-election and a amendments that potential- 6-year term that would end in 2030. ly lengthens Egyptian Presi- Sisi’s first term ran 2014-18. A dent Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s Some of those voting in the refer- time in office until 2030 has been ap- endum held photos of the Egyptian proved in a nationwide referendum. president as though they were vot- “Security conditions are improv- ing for him. ing very noticeably and this is cre- Following the April 23 announce- ating a general feeling that Egypt is ment of the referendum results by going back to its internal stability,” the General Election Authority, Sisi said Tarek Fahmi, a political science thanked the public for participating professor at Cairo University. “Voter in the vote. participation is also a reflection of “I salute with appreciation the public satisfaction with the perfor- great Egyptian people who im- mance of the president.”Almost 89% pressed the world with national uni- of the 26.4 million voters who par- ty and awareness of the challenges ticipated in the referendum on the facing our country,” Sisi wrote on constitutional amendments April Twitter. 20-22 voted “Yes.” Apart from extending the presi- About 44% of Egypt’s 61 million dential terms to six years, the eligible voters participated in the amendments reserve 25% of the referendum, representing one of seats of the legislature for women, the highest voter turnouts in recent grant Sisi the right to appoint the years. Turnout was 5% higher than heads of judicial authorities, reinsti- the constitutional referendum in tute the Senate and widen the pow- High turnout. A voter casts her ballot on constitutional amendments at a polling station in Cairo, April 21. 2014 and 3% higher than 2018’s pres- ers of the military. (AP) idential elections, which Sisi won Boycotting the vote was at the cen- with 97% of the vote. tre of debate by Egypt’s frail politi- Egyptian political and economic af- tary’s heightened role, particularly Egypt’s parliament and by the elec- The voting process was marred cal opposition and on social media. fairs would strengthen Sisi’s grip on given that Article 204 opens the door torate, including by the ultra-ortho- by allegations of vote-buying and Many have warned that the consti- power. The government has “made for civilians to be tried by military dox Salafist Al-Nour Party, the only false reporting of numbers. “The an- tutional amendments do away with sure Egyptians don’t see any cred- courts in cases that represent an remaining Islamist political force in nounced figures, however precise, the political gains Egyptians secured ible alternative to Sisi so that they “assault” against military facilities, the country. were not credible,” wrote Michele over the past nine years. don’t start to imagine an Egypt that equipment, weapons, documents All 12 Al-Nour Party MPs voted to Dunne, director of the Middle East The amendments also formally is ruled by anyone else,” said Timo- and public funds. Under the previ- pass the amendments after parlia- Programme at the Carnegie Endow- task Egypt’s military to “protect the thy Kaldas, a non-resident fellow at ous text of the article, military tribu- mentary wrangling. The Salafists, ment for International Peace, in an constitution and democracy and the Tahrir Institute for Middle East nals could only be convened in cases analysts said, need to walk a fine line analysis. safeguard the basic components of Policy. of a “direct assault.” between maintaining their presence Long queues of voters formed the state and its civilian nature and Egyptian Parliament Speaker Ali “These amendments aim to ex- on the political stage and avoiding outside many polling stations across the people’s gains and individual Abdel A’al said, the amendment does pand military trials for civilians, un- clashing with Sisi’s administration, Egypt during the three days of vot- rights and freedoms,” the amended not mean that the army would play a dermine the independence of the ju- which has battled political Islam ing, especially on the last day, amid text of Article 200 reads. political role. diciary and strengthen impunity for since taking office in 2014. a major government-backed cam- That article, analysts said, under- “This article throws light on the human rights violations by members “The Salafists are smart,” said paign seeking high voter turnout. scores the growing role of the mili- role the armed forces play,” Abdel of the security forces, furthering the Tarek al-Beshbeshi, an expert on Voting was not, however, limited tary in Egyptian political and social A’al said in parliament before the ref- climate of repression that already ex- political Islam. “They saw for them- to older Egyptians or women, a com- life, at a time when military-backed erendum. “They carry out their du- ists in the country,” said Magdalena selves how the Brotherhood paid mon feature of elections in recent regimes are playing crucial roles in ties in full honesty and side with the Mughrabi, Amnesty International’s a heavy price for antagonising the years. Young and middle-aged Egyp- delicate transitions in Sudan and Al- choices of the people.” deputy director for the MENA re- people.” tians also turned out in large num- geria. Despite this, international human gion. bers, an unexpected departure from Critics expressed concern that rights organisations warned that the Despite such fears, the amend- Amr Emam is a Cairo-based their previous level of participation. the expanding role of the military in amendment consecrates the mili- ments were strongly backed in contributor to The Arab Weekly. Mixed reactions to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood junior members’ initiative

Amr Emam embracing a more moderate ideol- reconciliation proposal but a mem- Brotherhood members renounce public relations victory and sap the ogy. ber of the National Council for Hu- violence, this can only be viewed strength of the organisation. Egyptian media reports said the man Rights said it had formed a as a victory for the state, analysts “Junior members are like fuel, Cairo junior Brotherhood members said working group to assess such ini- said, particularly because senior whether in the case of the Brother- they would work to convince other tiatives. members of the group in exile in hood or any other Islamist move- reconciliation initiative inmates to renounce violence, in Mukhtar Nouh, a former member Qatar and Turkey appear keen to ment,” Eid said. offered by jailed junior addition to pledging to stay away of the Brotherhood and a member continue the fight. However, there are fears that the members of the outlawed from political activity inside and of the council, told Egypt’s pri- “It is better for these junior mem- proposed revisions might be a tac- A Muslim Brotherhood re- outside the country. vately owned Ten TV that the new bers to be pardoned and integrated tic for Brotherhood members to get ceived mixed reactions, with se- In return, they want official par- group aimed to ensure that the pro- back into society,” said Sameh Eid, out of prison and return to violent curity experts warning against the dons from Sisi and release from jail. posed revision was genuine. an expert on political Islam. activities. move and some political analysts “Young people should be at the Initiatives such as this, experts Eid warned that junior Brother- The biggest ideological revisions supporting it. mosques, the schools and the un- on political Islam said, should not hood members in jail are at risk of were conducted in local jails in the “Such initiatives are more a po- ions, not in the jails,” the junior be taken lightly, particularly con- radicalisation but news that large 1990s when members of Jamaa litical show than a desire by these Brotherhood members wrote. sidering the campaign by the gov- numbers of Muslim Brotherhood Islamiyya, which assassinated people to correct their ideas,” said The Egyptian government has ernment against political Islam. members were renouncing the President Anwar Sadat in 1981, re- Khaled Okasha, a member of the not officially commented on the If thousands of young Muslim group would serve as an important nounced violence. Supreme Anti-Terrorism Council, Some of those members have an advisory body of the Egyptian turned into icons of peaceful ac- presidency. “Experience shows tivism. One of those was Nageh that these movements propose Ibrahim, a founder of the move- revisions only to gain a renewed ment who is a leading campaigner presence on the political stage.” against Islamist violence. Thousands of Muslim Brother- There are also examples of Islam- hood members were arrested for ists who feigned a change of views suspected involvement in violence but returned to violence once they in Egypt following the July 2013 were set free. Some of the founders ouster of Islamist President Mu- of the Sinai militia that became the hammad Morsi. Other members Islamic State were released from of the group were arrested after A question of jail after their sentences were com- the government designated the trust. A 2014 muted following the 2011 uprising Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist file picture against President Hosni Mubarak. group in December 2013. shows This is why, experts said, the However, some Brotherhood in- supporters of proposed initiative should not be mates have proposed an initiative the Muslim approved lightly. for reconciliation with the govern- Brotherhood “Instances of Islamists who were ment. In a letter to Egyptian Presi- gesturing pardoned and then returned to dent Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Muslim from the violence abound,” said Hesham Brotherhood members reportedly defendants’ al-Najjar, another political Islam vowed to renounce violence and cage during specialist. “Those conducting the end ties with the outlawed group, a trial in revisions can be given preferential recognising Morsi’s ouster as the Alexandria. treatment in the jails but setting outcome of a popular uprising and (AP) them free can be very risky.” 14 April 28, 2019 News & Analysis Lebanon Ties with Hezbollah put Berri in difficult position

Sami Moubayed Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi and Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who, like him, were delicately al- Beirut lied both to the United States and Iran. n the summer of 1985, the cur- Coming on the heels of the rent speaker of the Lebanese Pompeo visit, it seemed like a mes- parliament, Nabih Berri, then sage from the Lebanese speaker. I a powerful militia leader in the He was trying to say: “Don’t even Lebanese civil war, helped negoti- think of sanctioning people like us. ate the release of hostages taken We hold the keys of stability — and during the hijacking of TWA Flight chaos — in the Middle East.” 847. Leaders who can stabilise the The hijackers were two Lebanese region can also destabilise it, after Shias, allegedly working for Hez- all. It is these kinds of leaders who bollah, who demanded the release the United States ought to promote of 700 Lebanese held in Israeli and engage, providing the Trump jails. Berri’s mediation helped end administration with a back chan- the crisis — as he has often boasted nel through which it can pass mes- — putting him on favourable terms sages to Hezbollah and Iran. with the United States, despite his For 40 long years, this had been well-known connections to Teh- the job of the Syrians, who had ran, Damascus and Hezbollah. cordial relations with the interna- tional community and with notori- ous non-state players such as Hez- Berri played a monumental bollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas. role in destroying the Syria can no longer play that role, Lebanese-Israeli peace putting Berri at centre stage to play agreement. He called on the the go-between. Lebanese Army to rebel The channel is two ways, of Enigmatic player. Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri heads a general parliament discussion in against the treaty, coining it course. Berri has spoken on Hez- downtown Beirut. (Reuters) an agreement of bollah’s behalf with the United “humiliation and shame.” States, saying Lebanon was deter- mined to go ahead with drilling pecially if they have some form of an agreement of “humiliation and of Damocles to elicit good behav- projects in disputed territorial wa- financial dealings with Hezbollah.” shame.” iour.” Now reports indicate that the ters that Israel claims are its prop- Berri has been an enigmatic Berri supported the United During the civil war, Berri helped United States has been consider- erty. “We won’t give up a drop of player in the Hezbollah-led March States after 9/11 but refused to en- in the release of US hostages, in- ing sanctioning Berri for his ties water to Israel,” he boomed from 8 Alliance. A lawyer turned politi- dorse its 2003 war on Iraq. He was cluding Terry Anderson, Beirut bu- to Hezbollah. The rumours spread Baghdad. cian then militiaman then states- a long-time friend and ally of Pal- reau chief for the Associated Press, after US Secretary of State Mike When a Kuwaiti newspaper ran a man, he has brilliantly maintained estinian leader Yasser Arafat, fight- and David Dodge, president of the Pompeo’s recent visit to Beirut, report saying that Hezbollah Secre- cordial ties with all regional and ing on the same front lines during American University of Beirut, ab- during which he called on the Leb- tary-General Hassan Nasrallah was international players in the Middle the civil war, and a public support- ducted by Shia militias. anese state to end its support for expecting a war with Israel and East. er of Hamas and its former leader Because of this role that Berri Hezbollah, threatening to sanction that he might be killed very soon, It was from Berri’s Amal Move- Khaled Meshaal. carefully crafted out for himself, individuals who fail to comply. Berri’s New TV was quick to deny ment that Hezbollah emerged in Despite his well-known connec- the United States has maintained Two of Berri’s allies headed to the allegations, side-by-side with 1982 when defectors accused him tions to such figures and to Iranian warm relations with him, since he the United States, ostensibly for Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV. of being too soft on the Israeli oc- Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the was first elected as speaker — with meetings at the World Bank. How- “I don’t think the US is going to cupation of Beirut. One of them United States considered Berri a joint blessing from Iran, Saudi Ara- ever, they were to meet with US sanction Berri,” said Nicholas Blan- was 22-year-old Nasrallah, who voice of reason in Lebanon and be- bia and Syria — in 1992. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury ford, a long-time correspondent now calls Berri “our big brother.” yond. All three states still refuse to see Marshall Billingslea and Assistant for the Christian Science Monitor One year later, Berri played a He was good at “carrying mes- him go. Secretary of State for Near East Af- in Beirut and contributor to The monumental role in destroying the sages,” said Blanford, who added: fairs David Satterfield. Arab Weekly. “Although it is pos- Lebanese-Israeli peace agreement. “I suspect the US, for now, prefers Sami Moubayed is a Syrian Berri flew to Baghdad, where he sible that some people close to the He called on the Lebanese Army to to use the speculated threat of historian and author of “Under the met with two Shia heavyweights — speaker could be blacklisted, es- rebel against the treaty, coining it sanctions against Berri as a sword Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). Viewpoint When Hezbollah foolishly beats the drums of war

here are two major showing just how confused their questions being debated understanding of the US and Israeli on the streets of Beirut: positions is. The form of economic Makram Rabah When will the Lebanese warfare they are engaging in economy collapse? cannot be ended with a ceasefire. When will Israel declare One need only look so far as the Twar on Hezbollah and Lebanon? United States’ recent offer of a $10 Those seemingly challenging million reward for information questions are easy to address. helping to disrupt Hezbollah’s Lebanon’s economy is steadily financial network and expose its deteriorating and it is time the network of businessmen who political establishment publicly handle its money laundering acknowledged that. Israel’s activities. This reward is geared campaign against Hezbollah would especially towards three Lebanese not be well served by a war given Shia businessmen — Mohammed the conditions. Bazzi, Adham Tabaja and Ali The Israeli Air Force is fully Charara — whom the United States engaged in hunting Iran and its Wishful thinking. Lebanon’s Hezbollah supporters chant slogans identified as the backbone of their various militias across Syria. Those in Beirut, last September. (Reuters) financial operation. nightly raids are more lethal and While the West was previously effective than any projected focused on tracking down key assault against Hezbollah in record for accuracy. Nasrallah, not the crippling US sanctions. military figures, such as field Lebanon. so much. In fact, the Hezbollah By Nasrallah’s logic, Israeli commanders Imad Mughniyah and This makes one wonder why chief seems to have purposely aggression in Lebanon would help Mustapha Badreddine, both of Hezbollah and Secretary-General orchestrated the confusion for his repair his shattered image as a whom were killed in Syria, the Hassan Nasrallah are vociferously own political ends. national protector, especially after prime targets today are account- pushing for imminent Israeli The renewed talk of potential Hezbollah’s reckless adventure in ants and financiers like Bazzi and aggression against Lebanon. The war between Hezbollah and Israel, Syria, which put it at odds with the his associates. Neutralising them is Kuwaiti newspaper Al Rai, citing bolstered by Al Rai’s report, was Sunni community in Lebanon and far more effective than gains that exclusive information from within just before the United States beyond. could be made in any war Nasrallah Hezbollah, recently reported that announced a new round of In addition, any Israeli hit might be craving. Nasrallah had warned his senior sanctions against Iran and its against Hezbollah, though tacitly With this in mind, Nasrallah’s commanders that war with Israel subsidiaries, including Hezbollah. welcomed by most Lebanese, attacks on Saudi Arabia and the was looming and that his own These sanctions included ending would force the government and United Arab Emirates, both of demise was forthcoming. exemptions given to eight coun- the Lebanese at large to publicly which are decisive to Lebanon Hezbollah quickly denied that tries to buy Iranian oil, worsening denounce such aggression. surviving its economic onslaught, By Nasrallah’s logic, Nasrallah had made such remarks Iran’s economic predicament and That would enable Hezbollah to look even more imprudent. Israeli aggression in and the Hezbollah chief followed further straining its ability to readily capitalise on the temporary Nasrallah might know how to beat up calling the report a fabrication. supply its militias across the sense of national unity. With the the drums of war but, with an Lebanon would help Nasrallah assured his television region. Lebanese state unable to impose economic apocalypse looming, no repair his shattered audience that an Israeli attack on This tightening noose of US the US sanctions in the absence of weapons or ballistic missiles will Lebanon is rather unlikely. That sanctions could help explain why the appropriate mechanisms, be able to save anyone. image as a national would require the Israelis to launch Nasrallah sought to covertly push Hezbollah would likely smuggle in protector, especially a full-scale land invasion, he said, the war narrative. Despite the containers of cash like it did after Makram Rabah is a lecturer at the after Hezbollah’s which they are wary of doing. monumental risk of any confronta- the war of 2006, helping it gain American University of Beirut and What also seems unlikely is that tion with Israel, Hezbollah appar- influence and garner support. author of “A Campus at War: reckless adventure Al Rai would fabricate such ently thinks it could use the war to All of this is wishful thinking on Student Politics at the American in Syria. remarks. Al Rai has an impeccable its advantage and potentially avoid the part of Hezbollah and Iran, University of Beirut, 1967-1975.” April 28, 2019 15 News & Analysis Palestine Israel Unanswered questions after Netanyahu’s re-election Kelly Kennedy “It was clear along the way that the religious right-wing bloc would have more votes than the centre- Washington left bloc but I think it has served as a bit of a wake-up call,” said Amir ust after Israeli Prime Minister Tibon, a Washington correspondent Binyamin Netanyahu was re- for Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper. elected, experts on the Israeli- The Trump administration an- J Palestinian conflict met to de- nounced that its peace plan pro- termine what the vote means. posal would be delayed until after “The Israeli elections really did Ramadan, which ends June 4, but ask more questions than they an- US State Department officials said Hand in hand. A man walks past a Likud election campaign billboard depicting US President Donald swered,” said Khalil Jahshan, ex- they would support Israel’s plans, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, last February. (Reuters) ecutive director of the Arab Centre whether they entail a one-state or Washington DC, which sponsored two-state solution. the panel. “The question now is: Many in Israel and the United political science professor at the New Internationalism Project at the ment accounts,” she said. “I think ‘Now what?’” States say Netanyahu and the Unit- City University of New York, said Institute for Policy Studies, agreed this is huge.” While some questions remained ed States will seek a one-state so- Netanyahu’s re-election will change that the election would force US Because of the Trump administra- unanswered, including “Will Ne- lution to the conflict and the elec- the political landscape in the United politicians to take a stand in one di- tion’s far-right stance, future can- tanyahu be indicted?” and “Will tion led many in the international States. rection or the other on the conflict, didates will have to say what they the United States release its peace community, including high-rank- The American Israel Public Affairs rather than depending on the “pos- believe: Is Iran’s military a terrorist plan?” panellists said the election ing officials writing a letter to the Committee (AIPAC) “is the big loser sibility of a two-state solution.” group? Is Israel’s claim of sover- should serve as notice that Israel Guardian, to plead for a two-state in Netanyahu’s re-election,” he said. “Those of us in Jewish Voices for eignty and Trump’s support of that will remain dominated by the po- solution. “It has to be bipartisan.” Peace have been waiting for this for claim over the Golan Heights a vio- litical right for the foreseeable fu- “I just want to say that any hope AIPAC’s membership is bipartisan a long time,” she said. lation of international law? Should ture and that the election will help for change, which I think there is, based on the idea of a two-state so- She said eight potential candi- Jerusalem belong only to the Jews? define US politics for years. is here in the United States,” said lution, he said, and US Jews, who dates for the US presidency did not “It’s going to be much harder,” That change comes, in part, be- Nadia Hijab, co-founder of the Pal- tend to be secular and not terribly show up for AIPAC this year. “Can- she said. cause US President Donald Trump’s estinian Policy Network. Netan- religious, have the option to join didates always show up,” she said. Still, “a negative view of Israel administration, in supporting Ne- yahu has pinned his hopes on the groups that don’t support a one- “That was huge.” doesn’t always translate to support tanyahu, has forced politicians to orthodox Jews in the United States, state solution. In the meantime, the Boycott, of the Palestinians,” Tibon said. say where they stand on the idea of she said, adding: “That, I think, is a Beinart said the Israeli elections Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) Between Hamas firing rockets, cor- a one-state solution as well as be- mistake.” will force US Democrats to the left movement has gained traction with ruption and Palestinian President cause US Jews have become more She said US Jews tend to be more and that US Senator Bernie Sanders, mainstream Christian denomina- Mahmoud Abbas as not a “very secular and more willing to talk liberal in their politics while not an independent from Vermont seek- tions, such as Methodists and Quak- charismatic leader you want to as- about supporting Israel while not supporting Trump, and the Pal- ing the Democratic Party’s nomina- ers, to protest the treatment of Pal- sociate with,” it’s hard to gain sup- necessarily supporting its policies, estinian movement in the United tion for president, will use the elec- estinians, she said. port. especially its treatment of Arab-Is- States is growing and has been gal- tion to call for an end of “sending “Few or none of them have en- “But I think the Trump-Netanya- raelis and Palestinians. vanised by the Trump administra- $3.8 billion in military support un- dorsed BDS per se but they have hu bromance has had more of an It also comes as Israel itself moves tion. equivocally to Israel or anywhere.” taken up the actions of needing hu- effect on American Jews than 50 further to the right. Peter Beinart, a journalism and Phyllis Bennis, director of the man rights screens for their retire- years of settlements,” he said. Viewpoint Why Netanyahu is backing West Bank annexation

sovereign in the West Bank and 1973 war, Moshe Dayan declared century. It has shaped not only the Threatening Israel with a Netanyahu’s recent declaration is a his “Five No’s” — Gaza will not be policy of creating facts but also one-state solution misses this vital Geoffrey historic landmark in Israel’s policy Egyptian; the Golan will not be successive efforts to segregate and point. Israel has devoted more Aronson of creating facts on the ground. Syrian; Jerusalem will not be Arab; limit autonomous Palestinian energy than friend and foe alike The realities that Israel has created a Palestinian state will not be power over their destiny. over half a century to evade the in Jerusalem and the Golan have established; Israel will not aban- The fundamental Israeli objec- trap of a democratic, secular state ore than half a been applauded by the Trump don settlements Israelis have tive has always been to undermine in the Palestinian territories. century after its administration, offering Netan- established. the ability of Palestinians to act in a Preventing the empowerment of conquest of the yahu a tantalising opportunity to The declaration was a political sovereign manner while providing Palestinians, in any governing West Bank, Israel’s end whatever little ambiguity milestone on the path to de facto Israel with the territorial, settle- framework, and annexation of intentions have exists about Israel’s intentions in annexation. The deluxe plan that ment and security benefits of settlers and settlements are the been unmasked. the West Bank. resulted — one that every Israeli permanent rule. driving force of its one-state MJust days before his re-election, The relentless expansion of leader has followed for the last half After half a century of success in policies. To suggest that Israel will Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin settlements has always been the century — made it possible to join this dynamic effort, Netanyahu somehow be undone by the Netanyahu pledged to apply Israeli best barometer of Israel’s inten- the territories to Israel without declares that he is now poised to demands of politically integrating sovereignty to the more than 200 tions. Israel effectively annexed annexing them and without giving embark on the latest chapter of this Palestinians into a post-occupation settlements in the West Bank with East Jerusalem within a week of its the Palestinians under permanent programme — offering settlers and system mistakes a preferred a combined population of close to June 1967 victory — without even occupation the rights of Israeli settlements the marginal proce- outcome for a realistic one. 500,000. one settlement or settler in citizenship. dural and administrative benefits For Israel and its allies, annexa- “We will go to the next phase to place. No diplomatic framework for of formal de jure annexation while, tion validates and legitimises any extend Israeli sovereignty. I will On June 27, 1967, the Knesset resolving the conflict — from with Washington’s assistance, question of Jewish entitlement to impose sovereignty,” he said, “but passed legislation empowering the Menachem Begin’s autonomy plan creating a new international Palestine. It signifies a moral I will not distinguish between government to extend “Israeli law to the Oslo Accords — has pre- diplomatic context — promising dimension to Israeli rule absent settlement blocs and isolated jurisdiction and public administra- sented a fundamental challenge to what Dayan declared in 1973, Begin from the internationally accepted settlements. From my perspective, tion over the entire area of the these conditions. Now, even the offered at Camp David 1979 and definition of Israel’s role as an any point of settlement is Israeli Land of Israel.” This legislative minimal and inadequate con- what the world applauded on the “occupying” or “administering” and we have responsibility as the framework for annexing all of straints on Israel afforded by the White House lawn in September power. Israeli government. I will not Israel’s conquests was immedi- lapsed international commitment 1993 — autonomy for the Palestin- Having raised this issue of uproot anyone and I will not ately applied to the area known to ending occupation, removing ian people of the West Bank, entitlement, Netanyahu has transfer sovereignty to the today as East Jerusalem and in 1981 settlements and establishing a coupled with unbridled Israeli increased post-election pressure Palestinians.” to the Golan Heights. sovereign Palestinian state, have settlement and territorial and on himself to make good on his Netanyahu’s declaration in The Trump administration, in a all but disappeared from the security control, and de facto declaration. If he fails to act, he support of the annexation of West historic break with its predecessors diplomatic agenda, creating recognition of a Palestine govern- will accentuate widespread doubts Bank settlements, which control and international consensus, opportunities for the likes of ment in Gaza (a la 1949). about the very entitlement he has approximately 60% of the 5,500 recently recognised these actions. Trump and Netanyahu. Israel has worked with great asserted. sq.km territory, puts the issue at Updated American government For most of the international success since the first days of Netanyahu can be expected to the top of Israel’s post-election maps show the Golan as Israeli. community, annexation has been occupation to take all the sover- argue that formal annexation is a settlement and occupation This patent of de jure annexation viewed as a far-off possibility to be eign “space” created by its military consequence of Arab rejection of agenda. of territory captured in war was offset by two state diplomacy. victory while preventing the the idea of Israel, whatever its Yet, as Netanyahu noted, formal not a new departure for Israel. Israel has never viewed the democratic and egalitarian aspects borders. In the rejectionist era of extension of Israeli sovereignty, Israeli law and jurisdiction had opportunity posed by occupation of a one-state solution that its Khartoum, this claim was more however significant, is simply the been similarly extended over in this manner. proponents find so appealing. The tenable. Today, however, it has the latest chapter of an extraordinary portions of the Galilee and Negev How to minimise the conse- resurgence of interest in a one- distinct ring of unvarnished saga that has unfolded in the face captured during the 1948 war. quences of annexation demo- state option — half a century after cynicism, welcome on Pennsylva- of almost unanimous international Neither of those areas was graphically while exploiting the Israel became the sole sovereign nia Avenue but nowhere else. opposition since June 1967. included in the Jewish state territorial and security advantages between the river and the sea — as Israel’s settlement enterprise is created by the original UN parti- annexation promised is the central a vehicle for Palestinian liberation Geoffrey Aronson is a non-resident the most noteworthy and visible tion resolution. dilemma and challenge that Israel fails to take account of this scholar at the Middle East Institute tool of its intention to remain One month before the October has been facing for the last half history. in Washington. 16 April 28, 2019 News & Analysis Turkey Row in Turkey’s governing party bursts into the open

Thomas Seibert vutoglu wrote in reference to the AKP’s partnership with the right- wing Nationalist Movement Party Istanbul (MHP). He added the AKP’s origi- nal reformist and liberal ethos had ust three weeks after he lost been replaced in recent years by control of the biggest cities in a more statist, security-based ap- the country in local elections, proach that was driven by concerns J Turkish President Recep about preserving the status quo. Tayyip Erdogan is facing unrest in Davutoglu severely criticised lim- his own party. its on the freedom of speech in Tur- A brewing row over the direction key, a country that has jailed more of the ruling Justice and Develop- than 130 journalists, more than ment Party (AKP), an organisation any other nation, in recent years. that has dominated Turkish poli- “The media, a foundation for free tics for more than 16 years and has speech and criticism that is called become a tool for the president’s the fourth power in developed de- ambition, burst into the open with mocracies, has been turned into a the publication of a manifesto by propaganda instrument,” he wrote. Erdogan’s former prime minister. The manifesto followed a state- Ahmet Davutoglu, who was ment by former Turkish President sacked by Erdogan in 2016 as AKP Abdullah Gul, another disgruntled chief and prime minister and is re- AKP grandee, who accused Erdog- portedly mulling a plan to set up his an of having become an autocrat. own party, published a 4,000-word Critics accuse Erdogan of polarising pamphlet on Facebook that criti- the country and of branding all po- cised the AKP for having moved litical foes potential traitors. away from democracy, pluralism Davutoglu’s broadside came as and the rule of law. AKP officials questioned Erdogan’s In a serious blow to Erdogan, decisions that, critics said, have the AKP lost control of the capital, damaged the party. Internal criti- Ankara, and Turkey’s largest city, cism directed against Erdogan, Istanbul, to the opposition Repub- revered by millions of Turks, had lican People’s Party (CHP) in the been rare in the AKP but is becom- March 31 elections. The AKP and its ing more common. Better late than never. A file picture shows Ahmet Davutoglu leaving after a news conference at the Islamist predecessors had governed Party members said the AKP has headquarters of the Justice and Development Party in Ankara. (AP) the two cities for 25 years. become a political hostage to the MHP, the BirGun newspaper report- ed. The AKP relies on the MHP’s Following the election, Erdogan away in an armoured car. hand with the PKK. The president Davutoglu severely support in parliament, where Er- called on Turks to unite and face Tanrikulu said the attack was a left a session of parliament early as criticised limits on the dogan’s group lost its majority in the country’s problems but his de- consequence of Erdogan’s divi- HDP co-leader Pervin Buldan was freedom of speech in elections last year. The two parties cision to challenge the AKP defeat sive rhetoric before the elections. to give a speech. Erdogan said he Turkey, a country that forged an alliance but the much big- in Istanbul before the electoral On the campaign trail, Erdogan was not prepared to listen to those has jailed more than 130 ger AKP has come under pressure commission kept Turkey on edge. accused the CHP of working with who were responsible for the death journalists, more than from the MHP, BirGun quoted AKP Heightened political tensions “terrorists” because it attracted of Turkish soldiers. any other nation, in members as saying. The MHP “is turned violent April 21 when CHP support of the pro-Kurdish Peo- turning us into lame ducks,” they leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu was at- recent years. ples’ Democratic Party (HDP), seen Internal criticism said. tacked by a nationalist mob while by the government as the PKK’s po- Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Com- Sezgin Tanrikulu, a CHP lawmak- attending the funeral of a Turkish litical arm. Kilicdaroglu’s attacker directed against mission rejected an appeal by the er, said a power struggle was raging soldier killed in clashes between reportedly told police his action Erdogan, revered by AKP that votes cast by sacked public inside the AKP. the army and the Kurdistan Work- had been influenced by statements millions of Turks, had sector workers be declared invalid. “There are those who want even ers’ Party (PKK), a militant group calling the CHP leader a PKK sup- been rare in the AKP but The commission has still to decide more polarisation and those who seen as a terrorist organisation by porter. is becoming more on an AKP application to schedule want normalisation,” Tanrikulu Turkey and much of the interna- “They say we were cooperating common. a rerun election in Istanbul in June said by telephone. “We don’t know tional community. with terrorists. They spread hate over alleged irregularities. Some in who will win in the end.” One protester, allegedly an AKP speech,” Tanrikulu said about the MHP leader Devlet Bahceli sug- the AKP have called on the party to The AKP is reeling from the de- member, punched Kilicdaroglu government, “and now the AKP gested that Kilicdaroglu was re- accept its defeat in the metropolis feats in Istanbul and elsewhere. in the face as bodyguards tried wants to portray our electoral vic- sponsible for the violence he suf- and move on. Pollsters said many voters in urban to shield the CHP leader and take tories as illegitimate.” fered. “What did you do that led “The election results show that centres turned away from the rul- him to a nearby house for shelter. Erdogan appeared to justify the this man to hit you, Kemal Kil- alliance politics have caused harm ing party amid an economic down- “Burn down this house,” the crowd assault against Kilicdaroglu by re- icdaroglu?” Bahceli asked, adding to our party, both in terms of voter turn that pushed unemployment to chanted after Kilicdaroglu went peating the charge that some politi- it was time the CHP leader went levels and the party’s identity,” Da- 15%, the highest level in years. inside. He was eventually taken cal parties in Turkey were hand in “on holiday.”

Viewpoint Erdogan between a rock and a hard place

hat will the debated intensely, must be seen seems to have in mind a national bloc but he also lost elsewhere to new road map in this context. In a speech to the unity government, which, if MHP rising nationalist parties. He real- of Turkish Pres- Memur-Sen trade union days after doesn’t cop out because of rage, ised that his partner, MHP, won as Yavuz Baydar ident Recep the elections, Erdogan said: “It is would include four parties — or the AKP eroded. Tayyip Erdogan time to cool down the hot iron, to three — and continue to rule. This As the perfect storm in the be like? This shake hands, to hug and to rein- project naturally excludes the economy approaches and because Wis the question observers have force our unity and integrity.” black sheep of Turkish politics, he has lost all credibility in been struggling with since local He followed up on this with: the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Demo- international finance and politi- elections turned the ever-acri- “On matters of national survival, cratic Party. cal circles, Erdogan understands monious Turkish political scene we must put aside our political The pattern of masterful moves that without offering coopera- into a topsy-turvy chess match, differences and act together, all by Erdogan is well-known: He tion — seats in his government to accompanied by cacophony from 82 million of us, as the ‘Turkey throws certain ideas, lets his the main opposition — he faces all sides. Alliance’.” close circles, as well as his loyal far worse threats to his power. Of Almost a month has passed The term has upset Bahceli, columnists, debate and tests the course, as his pattern in the past since the vote and the fate of the who said: “What matters is not waters. The delay of the ruling by 17 years of rule suggests, he has Istanbul Metropolitan Municipal- ‘Turkey Alliance’ but rather the the YSK on Istanbul seems to be used, abused and thrown away ity is still unclear. The 11 members ‘People’s Alliance.’” designed to lend him the precious the CHP. of the Supreme Electoral Council This brought the AKP and MHP, time he needs. This explains the rage of Bah- (YSK) are under intense pressure which used to call themselves a This is exactly what is happen- celi and hesitation within the from the ruling coalition bloc of “joint cause for the perpetuity of ing. As the complaints process on CHP. There are reports by credible Erdogan’s Justice and Develop- the country,” to a breaking point. Istanbul continues, as the earlier sources that there were backchan- ment Party (AKP) and Devlet Bah- There is internal turbulence enthusiasm by the opposition nel talks between the AKP and celi’s Nationalist Movement Party within the AKP, which was more bloc keeps fading, Erdogan is CHP but what the latter will do is (MHP). The YSK’s final ruling is shaken by the election results being helped by the changes of unclear. unlikely to be graciously accepted than Erdogan. mood. While the “grand coalition” has by everyone. But what does Erdogan mean Apparently, in relation to this, a entered the agenda as a new term, While the “grand Erdogan is keeping all the by “Turkey Alliance”? The answer 12-point memo, allegedly written thanks to the “Turkey Alliance,” actors and observers in sus- is simple: Having realised that by his loyal cadres in the AKP, the uncertainties in the battle for coalition” has entered pense. Since he remains a master Turkey will be sunk deeper into started circulating. The leaked power and its possible redistri- the agenda as a new tactician, with his strategy of a its chronic crisis, peppered by the text is a set of arguments on how bution are far stronger than any lifetime one-man rule intact, this economic free fall, Erdogan has “under attack” Turkey is — on the opening visible. term, the long wait is normal. He stands shifted, once more, to “change of economy, foreign policy and on The month of May will be much uncertainties in the before a crucial watershed and allies” mood. Kurdish resistance — and why the more intense, possibly more battle for power and his choice must be the one that Now he is eyeing the main country needs unity and “strong, violent, than before. Will Erdogan serves — first and foremost — his opposition party, the secularist unifying leadership.” It concludes choose the hard way or a softer its possible own interests. He can’t afford Republican People’s Party (CHP) that the “leader” must be sup- one? We shall see. redistribution are far to see his authority weaken, let and its nationalist partner in ported by any means necessary. alone fall apart. opposition, the Good Party, as Defeated in big cities by the tac- Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish stronger than any His new and vague term of prospective partners. tical Kurdish votes, Erdogan lost journalist and regular opening visible. “Turkey Alliance,” which is being It is rather obvious that he votes to the centrist opposition columnist for The Arab Weekly. April 28, 2019 17 News & Analysis Iran Pakistan’s security concerns top Khan’s agenda on visit to Iran

Sabahat Khan by Jaish ul-Adl but raised tensions between the neighbours as Tehran vowed to make Pakistan “pay a high Dubai cost” for its loss. It was Jaish ul-Adl’s second ma- ran and Pakistan agreed to set jor terrorist attack in recent years. up a joint rapid reaction force In April 2017, ten Iranian border for their shared border, which guards were killed in an ambush I stretches nearly 1,000km. The while patrolling near the Pakistani agreement came as Pakistani Prime border. Minister Imran Khan made his first Jaish ul-Adl was created by for- visit to Iran, which had been post- mer members of Jundallah, a terror- poned earlier in the year. ist group linked to al-Qaeda in Iran’s The neighbours agreeing to a joint Sistan-Baluchistan province that force comes after a terrorist attack in claims to fight Shia discrimination, Pakistan’s south-western province after its leader, Abdolmalek Rigi, of Balochistan on April 15. Militants was executed in Iran in 2010. wearing military uniforms stopped Sunni extremists targeting Shias, a bus en route from Karachi, Paki- however, remains a big problem for stan’s largest city, to Gwadar on a Pakistan, too. On April 12, terrorists Security issues. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (R) meets with Pakistani Prime key coastal highway and killed 12 killed 16 civilians from the Shia Haz- Minister Imran Khan (C) in the presence of President Hassan Rohani in Tehran, April 22. (AFP) Pakistani military servicemen. ara community in Quetta, the pro- Days before Khan’s visit to Iran, vincial capital of Balochistan. The Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah attack was claimed by the Islamic to Pakistan’s historical alliance with States said it will not grant another Iran reportedly constructed its Mehmood Qureshi declared that the State, which also said it carried Saudi Arabia. waiver to India to continue buying segment of the pipeline up to the attackers belonged to an alliance of out the terrorist bombings April 21 India has retained close ties with oil from Iran. Instead New Delhi border with Pakistan but, owing three Iran-based Baluchi terror or- across Sri Lanka. Tehran and is investing heavily in will need to meet its demand from to geopolitical considerations and ganisations. After the attack on its service- Iran’s Chahbahar Port, a project its other major suppliers, especially tightening US sanctions against The Iran border with Pakistan men, Pakistan announced its inten- whose success New Delhi says is Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Iran, Islamabad has cooled interest is largely undeveloped, sparsely tion to fence its border with Iran. threatened by Gwadar Port, which Emirates. in the project despite its acute gas populated but is taking on increas- Tehran has been constructing its Pakistan is developing with China as shortages. ing significance. Both the Iranian own border wall since 2007 when a part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Iranian President Hassan Rohani and Pakistani sides of the border are terrorist attack in the border town Last year, Pakistani agencies cap- The Iran border with and Khan discussed the need to home to Baluchis, an ethnic group of Zahedan killed civilians and IRGC tured a senior Indian intelligence Pakistan is largely deepen ties by enhancing bilateral that largely adheres to Sunni Islam personnel. operative named Kulbhushan Jad- undeveloped, sparsely trade but from the current low point but where conservative tribal codes Balochistan has become centre hav, who had been crossing into populated but is taking on in ties and considering Iran’s grow- remain socially relevant. ground in Pakistan’s economic fu- Pakistan undetected for years via increasing significance. ing international isolation, confi- Iran and Pakistan have faced low- ture and its military is taking a spe- Iran. Jadhav reportedly confessed dence-building will take time. A level Baluchi separatist threats since cial approach to security there but to India’s aim to sabotage Pakistan’s joint border force may help Iran and the 1970s but recent years have seen the expanse and terrain of the Iran- economic corridor being developed Ten years ago, India aborted the Pakistan focus on a narrow agenda a marked escalation of terrorist at- Pakistan border makes it challeng- with China. Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline at that could prove crucial in the years tacks on both sides of the border. ing to police effectively. Iran has been India’s largest sup- an advanced stage after signing a ci- ahead. In February, 27 members of Iran’s Pakistan has attempted to deepen plier of crude oil but this is chang- vilian nuclear deal with the United Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ties with Iran in a bid to counter the ing because of American sanctions States, which was viewed contro- Sabahat Khan, based in Dubai, (IRGC) were killed in a suicide car influence of its arch-rival India but as US President Donald Trump aims versially as India is not a signatory maintains a cross-disciplinary bombing near Iran’s border with Islamabad has had limited success to enforce unprecedented pressure to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation focus in international security, Pakistan. The attack was claimed because Tehran remains sensitive on the Iranian economy. The United Treaty. defence policy and strategic issues.

Viewpoint Picking a new IRGC commander from the old guard

ranian Supreme Leader Aya- mad Khatami and, after Khatami’s tollah Ali Khamenei issued a electoral victory, the president decree promoting Brigadier- demanded the ousting of the IRGC Ali Alfoneh General Hossein Salami to chief commander. Khamenei major-general and appointed accommodated Khatami, which him chief commander of infuriated the IRGC commanders. Ithe Islamic Revolutionary Guard Under Presidents Khatami, Corps. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Has- The appointment takes place in san Rohani, Salami and the old-boy an atmosphere of heightened ten- network of the IRGC joined ranks. sions between Tehran and Wash- The IRGC and its commanders ington, including the designation extracted maximum concessions, of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard both political and economic, from Corps (IRGC) as a Foreign Terrorist civilian politicians in return for Organisation and further US sanc- defending the regime against the tions against Iran’s oil exports. enemy it fears most: the people of The IRGC leadership change, Iran. however, follows a familiar pat- In recent years, Salami, who tern. Major-General Yahya Ra- served as IRGC deputy chief, con- him Safavi served as IRGC chief sistently reflected the dominant commander from 1997-07. Major- ideological viewpoints of the IRGC General Mohammad-Ali Jafari had leadership but he is, perhaps unde- served in the same position from Old-boy network. The newly appointed head of the Islamic servedly, perceived in the media as September 2007 and his departure Revolutionary Guard Corps Major-General Hossein Salami poses less subtle in his public statements was expected. during a ceremony in Tehran, April 22. (AFP) than his predecessors. The unexpected element is By appointing Salami, Khamenei Khamenei’s preference for the clearly opted for a safe choice. As old guard. Instead of promoting a tion. Modernisation, however, was performance during the early years Washington tightens sanctions representative of the younger gen- not coupled with democratisation, of the war but he was promoted screws on Iran and with the very eration of IRGC officers to leader- which turned the young intelligent- to commander of the Karbala and real risk of economic collapse and ship, Khamenei opted for Salami, a sia against the shah. later 14th Imam Hussein divisions. potential bread riots in Iran in 59-year-old veteran of the war with Salami benefited from the re- Still later, he was appointed com- sight, Khamenei clearly prefers the Iraq (1980-88). forms and made a giant leap from mander of the tactical naval Nouh tested old hands of the Iran-Iraq Understanding the motives Vaneshan to Tehran. He was admit- headquarters. war era generation than younger behind Khamenei’s choice not only ted to Iran University of Science Following the end of the war with officers. provides insights into what we can and Technology in 1978, where he Iraq, Salami studied at the staff However, Khamenei may also expect from Salami but also sheds studied mechanical engineering. college of Islamic Republic of Iran have had no real choice. The same light into the balance of power be- His education was cut short by Army, graduated with a master’s old-boy network of the IRGC, which tween Khamenei, the armed forces’ the revolution and closure of the degree in defence management and protested against Rezaei’s dismissal The same old-boy commander-in-chief and the IRGC. universities during the cultural served as head of operations at the in 1997, may have imposed Salami network of the IRGC, Salami was born in 1960, in revolution. IRGC Joint Staff from 1997-2005. on Khamenei. The question, of which protested the village of Vaneshan, near In 1980, Salami joined the Isfa- It was in this position that Salami course, is whether the old genera- Golpayegan in Isfahan province. han branch of the nascent IRGC and and other high-ranking IRGC com- tion is up to the new challenges the against Rezaei’s Around the same time, the shah was soon deployed in Iranian Kurd- manders published an open letter regime is facing. dismissal in 1997, of Iran initiated his ambitious istan. He volunteered for front-line protesting the dismissal of Mohsen modernisation programme, which duty in the war against the Iraqi Rezaei as IRGC chief commander. Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at may have imposed provided bright children from rural invasion of Iran. Few details are Rezaei had been a vocal critic the Arab Gulf States Institute in Salami on Khamenei. areas with access to higher educa- available about his functions and of presidential candidate Moham- Washington. 18 April 28, 2019 Economy

Market confidence drives global Briefs Saudi Arabia boasts budget finance chiefs to Saudi Arabia surplus in first

Stephen Kalin and Saeed Azhar quarter of 2019

Saudi Arabia announced a budget Riyadh surplus of $7.4 billion in the first quarter of the year, the first time in lobal finance chiefs who five years, officials said. boycotted a Saudi invest- “For the first time since 2014, our ment meeting last year fol- budget showed surpluses in the G lowing the killing of jour- first quarter of 2019,” Saudi Minister nalist Jamal Khashoggi returned of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan to Riyadh as the Gulf kingdom gets said at a conference in Riyadh. business back on track. He said non-oil revenues reached Dozens of Western politicians $20.3 billion, which is three times and business executives pulled out more than the non-oil revenues in of Saudi Arabia’s showcase gather- the same period of 2014. ing last October amid global uproar “This year’s budget is a solid over Khashoggi’s death inside the proof of our commitment to Vision kingdom’s Istanbul consulate three 2030,” Jadaan said. Vision 2030 weeks earlier. A Saudi court has is an ambitious plan meant to charged 11 suspects in the killing diversify Saudi Arabia’s oil-reliant and Western allies imposed sanc- economy. tions on individuals. (Deutsche Presse-Agentur) Big investors in Saudi Arabia ap- pear to be focused on potential deals in the largest Arab economy Egypt to turn to and the world’s top oil exporter as it opens up under a transformation private sector to drive led by Prince Mohammed bin restore historic Salman bin Abdulaziz. HSBC CEO John Flint and Black- buildings rock CEO Larry Fink, who stayed away from last year’s event, joined Egypt’s government is drawing panels at a financial forum April 24- up a plan to turn over as many as 25 as did JPMorgan Chase & Com- 150 crumbling historic buildings pany Co-President Daniel Pinto. to the private sector to refurbish Booming market. Cars drive past the King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh. (Reuters) “This is an economy that we and lease for profit, the Minister of have a lot of confidence in. I think Public Enterprise said. the future is bright,” Flint told the days after Saudi security forces to make sure that we intercept and raised in its debut bond issue was The plan could save an eclectic gathering. “We are excited about thwarted an attack on a state secu- fight terrorism.” “only the beginning.” mix of neo-classical, beaux arts, the role that we can continue to rity building in central Riyadh prov- Earlier this month, state oil gi- The Saudi stock market has also art nouveaux, art deco and early play here.” ince, which authorities blamed on ant Saudi Aramco received more seen an upsurge in foreign fund modern styles built mostly in the Fink told another panel: “The the Islamic State. than $100 billion in orders for its flows since the start of 2019 as the first half of the 20th century and changes here in the kingdom in the On April 23, Saudi Arabia an- first international bond issue, a re- market enters global emerging nationalised in the early 1960s. last two years are pretty amazing.” nounced it had executed 37 peo- cord-breaking vote of market con- market benchmarks. The index is It could also revitalise important Among the announced attend- ple in connection with terrorism fidence. up nearly 18% year-to-date, one of tourism districts in Cairo, Alexan- ees were the CEO of the London crimes. the best performing markets in the dria and Port Said. Stock Exchange and the chairman Asked how Saudi Arabia was ad- Blackrock CEO region. (Reuters) of Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial dressing national security issues, Larry Fink The domestic financial sector is Group, whose CEO abstained from Saudi Finance Minister Moham- seeing a relative uptick in activity the October meeting. med al-Jadaan told the audience this year, fuelled by an economic Dubai unveils recovery from higher oil prices and Riyadh has been trying for the Gulf region is “one of the safest “This is an economy that we government-led spending on big latest megaproject months to refocus attention on its worldwide.” have a lot of confidence in. projects. reforms, sending a senior delega- “These incidents will happen,” I think the future is bright.” tion to the World Economic Forum he said of the Riyadh province at- Jadaan said the Finance Minis- Dubai unveiled its latest in Davos and unveiling an indus- tack. “We are working with the try was introducing a $3.3 billion megaproject, a stadium in the heart trial plan to attract hundreds of world to make sure that we com- Saudi Energy Minister Khalid initiative to support private sector of a super luxe shopping and dining billions of dollars in investments in bat the financing of terrorism” al-Falih told the forum that Ara- growth in the kingdom. destination. January. and “we work very closely with mco would be active in debt mar- The arena, which will host sports The recent meeting took place the West and the regional forces kets and that the $12 billion it (Reuters) events and concerts, is to be built in a leisure retail and residential Viewpoint destination called City Walk, a new development by Meraas, a company owned by Dubai ruler Sheikh Mo- hammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum. How Saudi Arabia, UAE will stabilise the oil market It’s one of several of projects the emirate is churning out ahead of exceptions (SREs) — to Tehran’s top committed to doing their part to would greatly diminish global spare next year’s World Expo in Dubai. Jareer Elass crude buyers. upend Tehran’s economy and ide- production capacity, a critical factor Dubai’s major developers, such Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are mak- ally marginalise its influence in the should unexpected crises arise. as Meraas, Emaar and Nakheel, ing it clear that cooperation in greater region but Riyadh and Abu Saudi Arabia and the United Arab have plans for new cities, neigh- replacing Iranian oil exports will be Dhabi know the oil market is tighter Emirates have not been upset with bourhoods, malls, skyscrapers and on their terms, not the American and more vulnerable than six the trajectory of oil prices in recent fantastical concepts such as floating he Trump administra- president’s. months ago, the result of slowing months that have seen oil prices homes. tion’s decision to ratchet Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih global demand, rising crude inven- climb by $20 a barrel, moving the (The Associated Press) up sanctions on Tehran struck a cautious tone in comments tories, less Venezuelan and Iranian price of UK benchmark crude Brent by denying waiver regarding the end of the waivers, oil available because of American to $74-$75 a barrel and the price of extensions to eight saying: “In the next few weeks, the sanctions and the potential for US benchmark crude West Texas UN panel pays countries that had been kingdom will be consulting closely Libyan exports to be disrupted by Intermediate to $65-$66 a barrel. Tbuying Iranian crude can only work with other producing countries the country’s civil conflict. While revenues from $80-plus $240 million to with the backing and cooperation and key oil-consuming nations to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab a barrel oil would be preferable Kuwait oil firm of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab ensure a well-balanced and stable Emirates have been instrumental in to satisfy domestic budget needs, Emirates to avoid an undersupplied oil market.” the OPEC+ alliance that has with- Riyadh and Abu Dhabi recognise for Iraq war losses oil market and spiking crude prices. Falih later stressed that, because drawn as much as 1.2 million barrels that sustained prices at that level US President Donald Trump the oil market is “well-supplied,” per day (bpd) of crude from the could prove harmful to the global A UN panel overseeing com- alluded to that support in a tweet Riyadh didn’t perceive an urgency market over the last four months, a economy and erode oil demand but pensation claims by countries and April 22: “Saudi Arabia and others in boosting production in May, major contributor to a tightening of the Saudis and Emiratis also don’t organisations affected by Iraq’s in OPEC will more than make up the when SREs to eight nations expire. global oil supply. Saudi Arabia has want prices to fall much below cur- 1990-91 invasion of Kuwait said it Oil Flow difference in our now Full “We will be responsive and we assumed the lion’s share of the cuts rent levels. paid $240 million to the Gulf state’s Sanctions on Iranian Oil.” think there will be an uptick in real agreed to by the alliance, pumping The International Energy Agency national oil company. US Secretary of State Mike demand but certainly we are not go- well below its assigned quota of has warned “that with global eco- The UN Compensation Commis- Pompeo indicated that Saudi Arabia ing to be pre-emptive and increase 10.31 million bpd at 9.79 million bpd nomic growth increasingly fragile, sion said April 23 the latest tranche and the United Arab Emirates, production,” he said. in March. consumers and producers should brings to $48.3 billion the amount along with the United States, would UAE Oil Minister Suhail al-Maz- Saudi Arabia and the United Arab take steps to avoid higher oil prices it has paid out since 2005. Iraq ensure an “appropriate supply” of rouei made a similar point earlier in Emirates could collectively boost that will prove painful to all alike.” must set aside 1.5% of its oil export oil to meet any gap. April at a conference in Abu Dhabi. oil output by as much as 1.5 million Given that Saudi Arabia and the sales for the compensation fund. However, the circumstances Referring to the push by some OPEC bpd reasonably quickly. That vol- United Arab Emirates are being A remaining claim, which in- are different than the lead-up to and independent producers to ume would handily accommodate tasked with replacing Iranian oil cludes the latest payment, comes Washington renewing sanctions boost output ahead of the United the loss of Iran’s remaining 1 million and preventing a major oil market from the Kuwait Petroleum Corpo- on Iran in November when the States’ reinstatement of sanctions bpd of exports, although the United disruption, expect Riyadh and ration. Some $4.1 billion of its $14.7 two Gulf producers and other on Tehran late last year, Mazrouei States is unlikely to see Iranian Abu Dhabi to ignore pressure from billion claim for oil production and crude suppliers, including Russia, said: “I think we have learned the crude sales drop to its “zero” target Trump on moving precipitously sales losses resulting from damage turned up their oil taps only to feel lesson… We will not jump the gun, goal. while they assess market condi- to the country’s oil fields remains hoodwinked by learning that the pre-produce the volumes that are However, the two Gulf producers tions, determine their best course to be paid. Trump administration had granted not required yet.” would be unable to maintain that of action and protect their financial (Associated Press) waivers — significant reduction The two Gulf powerhouses are higher output indefinitely and it self-interests. April 28, 2019 19 Economy

New tariffs leave Egypt’s small steel producers in limbo

Hassan Abdel Zaher

Cairo

mall steel producers in Egypt face an uncertain future after the application of protec- S tionist tariffs to iron billet and steel imports. “The new tariffs will raise the price of production requirements,” said Tareq al-Gioshi, a steel factory owner. “This will cause losses to producers, given the fact that they cannot raise the price of their final products.” Steel producers affected by tariffs are not in a position to raise prices of their products while large steel producers are less reliant on im- ports and able to offset the increase. The Egyptian Ministry of Indus- try and Foreign Trade started ap- plying the tariffs April 15 to protect the local steel and iron billet indus- try against imports. The tariffs — set for 180 days, although they could be extended — amount to 15% on Uncertain future. Workers stand on a platform near steel bars at a factory in Sadat City, north of Cairo. (Reuters) iron billet imports and 25% on steel rebar. ers are losing to foreign suppliers The real estate sector has also them for their own manufacturing if given the opportunity to ramp up is that production costs are consid- been expanding, even as demand needs,” said Ahmed al-Zini, head of production. Egypt’s steel factories need erably higher in Egypt, which pro- dropped, with the prices of hous- the Construction Materials Section However, critics warned this 8 million tonnes of billets ducers attribute to the lack of gov- ing units out of reach for millions of at the Federation of Chambers of could lead to monopolistic prac- for steel production every ernment support and high energy Egyptians. Commerce. “As for small producers, tices that would cause a surge in year but only 4.5 million prices. Before applying the new tariffs, they have to import production re- construction steel prices. tonnes are produced “This is why applying the protec- Egypt sent a letter to the World quirements from other countries.” Soon after the application of the tionist tariffs was necessary to pro- Trade Organisation to justify its ac- Of 25 local steel factories, only tariffs, some producers report- domestically. tect the local industry,” said econo- tions. five produce billets needed for con- edly raised the price of construc- mist Ali el-Idrissi. However, the potential harm to struction. The production of those tion steel by almost 600 Egyptian The ministry investigated semi- Egypt’s construction sector has small producers by the protection- five factories, producers said, can- pounds ($35) to 11,600 pounds finished products of iron or non- been growing steadily with dozens ist drive represents an unintended not satisfy local needs. Egypt’s steel ($674) per tonne. alloy steel and steel rebar for con- of national megaprojects ordered consequence for Cairo. factories need 8 million tonnes of Producers such as Gioshi will struction purposes. On April 3, it by the government in all prov- Only a handful of major steel pro- billets for steel production every have to either raise prices of their said growth in imports had harmed inces. The Egyptian government is ducers — those that can produce year but only 4.5 million tonnes are products to cope with the rise Egypt’s domestic steel industry. spending billions of dollars on the their iron products and steel rebar produced domestically. in their production costs or stop The Egyptian Ministry of Fi- construction of electricity plants, and are, therefore, not reliant on This is why small producers said working. nance, which collects the tariffs at roads, bridges and factories. The imports — would benefit from the the new tariffs offer protection to “We hope the authorities will re- the country’s ports, said local facto- projects have created demand for new tariffs, industry experts said. something that is not present. Ma- consider these protectionist tariffs,” ries faced unfair competition from construction materials, in gen- “These are the producers who jor billet producers said their fac- Gioshi said. “This decision benefits imports. eral, and construction steel, in do not need to import the billets tories are working at 60% capacity nobody but those who want to mo- One of the reasons local produc- particular. because they produce enough of and they could meet local demand nopolise steel production.” African Development Bank introduces ‘Souk Al-Tanmia’ in Morocco

Saad Guerraoui by providing entrepreneurs with financing, managerial skills, coach- Guelmim ing and follow-up needed to set up and run their businesses.” he African Development In partnership with the Danish Bank inaugurated the Souk development cooperation (DANI- Al-Tanmia programme in DA), Morocco’s Ministry of Econo- T southern Moroccan to pro- my and Finance and the Regional mote entrepreneurship among Foundation for Entrepreneurship young graduates across the coun- and Enterprise (FREE), the pro- try. gramme seeks to help finance pro- “We have launched Souk Al- jects selected from dozens of candi- Tanmia programme in Morocco, dates from throughout Morocco to which is an important initiative help them achieve their entrepre- (for) young entrepreneurs in gen- neurship dream. eral and start-ups in particular,” The Guelmim-Oued Noun region African Development Bank (AfDB) is one of the poorest regions in Director-General Mohamed El Azizi Morocco with an illiteracy rate of said April 22. 32.9%. The unemployment rate in Souk Al-Tanmia was started in the region is one of the highest in Tunisia after the “Arab spring” to the country, reaching 27.1%, almost A boost to entrepreneurship. A candidate from the Guelmim-Oued Noun region presents his project (Saad Guerraoui) support young people setting up three times higher than the coun- to the AfDB delegation. their own enterprises. Combining try’s overall unemployment rate, access to financing and targeted the High Commission for Planning proved by the AfDB in Morocco in He said the role of the initiatives FREE President Charafddine El support, the objective of Souk Al- said. the last 50 years. in Morocco was to create economic Mostapha, whose organisation ap- Tanmia is to give young people, Ten candidates from Guelmim- DANIDA is one of the main opportunities for young people and proached AfDB about placing its women, associations, cooperatives Oued Noun were selected after ex- funders of the programme. Since women, Morocco having achieved initiative in Morocco, said the pro- and micro-entrepreneurs an oppor- plaining their projects in various 2003, Denmark has boosted its co- progress in economic growth and gramme was a first of its kind in our tunity to innovate and undertake fields, including renewable energy operation with the Middle East and job creation the last few years. country which will help the youth their ideas, AfDB said. and plastic recycling. North Africa through a Danish-Arab create their own businesses. The success rate after five years El Hassan Baiga, regional entre- Partnership Programme (DAPP) “The selection of candidates in reflects the programme’s progress preneurship manager of the Office called the Arab Initiative. The programme seeks to the Guelmim Oued Noun region in Tunisia, said Azizi of Vocational Training and Labour DAPP seeks to strengthen good help finance projects took three months based on criteria “We have been thinking of gen- Promotion, which was part of the governance and ensure economic selected from dozens of set out by the AfDB,” said Mosta- eralising the programme since last campaign, said the region “is awash opportunities, especially for young candidates from throughout pha. “Our goal is to help revive the year after its great success in Tuni- with talented young people who people and women in the region Morocco to help them region, which has a big potential, sia, which culminated in the crea- need such opportunities to prove through partnerships. Morocco, achieve their through more partnerships with tion of more than 250 enterprises themselves in the job market.” Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan benefit entrepreneurship dream. international organisations whose by young people in various sectors. The AfDB put the development from the programme. expertise will greatly benefit the Morocco is the second country to of small and medium-sized enter- Danish Ambassador to Morocco youth.” benefit from it,” he said. prises and entrepreneurship among Nikolaj Harris said Denmark “spon- “After its staggering success in “Souk Al-Tanmia seeks to help its core interventions in Morocco. sors many initiatives that aim to Tunisia, I’m sure that Souk Al-Tan- Saad Guerraoui is a contributor create around 300 enterprises with More than 160 projects totalling bolster the capacities of the youth mia will also be a success in Moroc- to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb an estimated fund of [$4.5 million] more than $10 billion have been ap- in the region.” co,” Harris said. issues. 20 April 28, 2019 Society Women in Uprisings Women at the forefront of Sudan change

Samar Kadi the youth and to say that Sudan is for all,” she said, adding that she has been receiving death threats Beirut but “will not bow down” and her voice “cannot be suppressed.” he revolution that led to the For many women, the revolution toppling of Sudanese Presi- was not just about bread; it was also dent Omar al-Bashir after about fighting a regime that op- T three decades in power is pressed women. stamped with a female icon, a uni- Women in Sudan were the most versity student dubbed “Kandaha,” disadvantaged group under al- the title given to Nubian queens of Bashir’s conservative government. ancient Sudan. For 30 years they experienced mas- Alaa Salah, a 22-year-old engi- sive encroachment on their rights, neering and architecture student largely stemming from an ultra- at Sudan International University, conservative interpretation of Is- shot to internet fame after footage lam encouraged by the Islamists showed her standing on a car in a in power. Women demonstrated long white garment, singing and for equal rights, access to politics leading the crowds protesting out- and education and against female side army headquarters in Khar- genital mutilation and forced mar- toum went viral. She became the riages. icon of the Sudanese uprising. “In such movements, women Reports estimate that women are widely participating not only made up 60% of the protesters who for their rights but for the rights of took to the streets in late December the entire community,” Salah told to demonstrate against a govern- Agence France-Presse. ment decision to triple the price of Sarah Abdeljalil of the Sudanese bread. The unrest morphed into a Professionals Association argued nationwide movement against al- that female protest has a long tradi- Bashir’s rule. He was unseated by tion in Sudan and that women were the military April 11. at the forefront of organising pro- “Sudanese women have always test actions in 1964 and 1985, which participated in revolutions in this triggered the removal of authoritar- country. If you see Sudan’s history, ian regimes. Iconic power. Alaa Salah, a Sudanese woman, addresses protesters in front of the military (AFP) all our queens have led the state. “Women have died. They have headquarters in Khartoum, April 10. It’s part of our heritage,” Salah was been in the middle of the protests, quoted as saying. have been detained, arrested and interests, occupation and ages. using the hashtag#whitemarch. spring” revolutions in late 2010. contributed significantly to the In 2009, Sudanese women start- Sudanese women also proved to “I don’t have words. So I out- (revolution’s) success so far,” Ab- ed a movement to protest the so- be instrumental in the demonstra- poured my heart with painting, For 30 years women deljalil was quoted as saying by called public morality laws that tions by creating Facebook groups while wishing a million times to experienced massive Deutsche Welle. curtailed basic freedoms, including and posting videos and pictures be on the frontlines with my peo- encroachment on their Jehanne Henry, associate direc- controlling the clothes they were of abusive security forces. Agents, ple,” Hashim wrote, as reported by rights, largely stemming tor of Human Rights Watch’s Africa allowed to wear. whose identities were uncovered, France’s Le Monde. from an ultra-conservative division, said thousands had been The long white garment and full were often beaten and chased out Ebaa Elghali, a Sudanese archi- interpretation of Islam arrested since unrest erupted last moon golden earrings that Salah of town. tect in the United Arab Emirates, encouraged by the Islamists December and that women were donned while leading the crowds Since her photos and footage was quoted by Arab News as saying in power. among those tortured and kept in from atop the car were inspired by went viral, Salah has been a source that most of her female friends and custody without being charged. outfits that Sudanese women wore of inspiration to her compatriots at relatives participated in the dem- The brutal response did not stop during revolutions in the 1960s and home and abroad. onstrations and sit-ins. “I wanted to speak against racism them from placing themselves 1980s. Huda Hashim, a Sudanese graph- “Even my older aunts and grand- and tribalism in all its forms, which firmly at the heart of the protests. During March, Sudanese women ic artist in Paris, represented Salah mother took part in the protests,” affect everyone across all walks of Henry said Sudanese women wore the traditional white robe in in one of her works surrounded by she said, “even those who were not life,” she said on her Twitter ac- have always been willing and strong support of the protests and wom- mobile telephone screens, in ref- politically engaged were there.” count, which she set up following and they were active in many revo- en’s rights. Social media platforms erence to viral images that were her new-found fame. lutions, including those in 2011 and filled with pictures of female pro- instrumental in mobilising popula- Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly “I wanted to speak on behalf of 2013. They came from all classes, testers wearing the white garment, tions since the eruption of the “Arab Travel and Society section editor. Viewpoint After protests, Algerian women reconquer the public space

lgerian women were way out in Algeria, the 1984 code With time, Algerian women have won’t be. not banned from reintroduced it by law. In this learned that their presence in the In speeches and statements by public space but we regard, playwright Khira Ben Attou, public sphere will not be granted women’s organisations and on Hamid Zanaz can’t say they were as author of the play “Boxes,” said the to them but they must acquire it websites, there is a consensus that present and accepted struggle is long for Algerian women themselves. So they did not hesi- the time has come to bypass the there as men, either. to take their rights by force and tate to participate, right from the Islamists’ medieval ideologies and AThey used to cross this space bypass the unjust Algerian fam- beginning, in the popular demon- to start building a new democratic furtively, frightened by the leering ily code and to be able to achieve strations against the regime since Algeria that guarantees justice, in- glances that followed them and complete equality with men, even February 22. The uprising against dividual and collective liberties and quite often by foul words thrown in inheritance. the regime is a strong declaration equality for all Algerians, males and at them. Their conditioning to fear She said the revolution is an op- of the birth of a real mixed gender females alike, so as not to fall again public spaces begins in childhood portunity for Algerian women to civil society that will open pros- into a social system that oppresses when they are intimidated and get out of boxes where they were pects for individual freedoms for women and despises femininity. emotionally blackmailed to keep imprisoned and fulfil themselves as both women and men. With their large presence in the to their homes because the public independent entities. Never before have Algerian protests and demonstrations in Al- space is dangerous and a source of The fact remains, however, that women taken to the streets in such geria every day, Algerian women no moral corruption. this family code, which was di- huge numbers as they have in the longer must hurry their crossing of Many Algerian women chose rectly based on sharia, did put into “revolution of smiles.” the public sphere. Today, they are to flee from the intimidation and law the lower status of Algerian Algerian women were out in at the heart of civil society. They harassment on the street by disap- women. It gave all the rights to large throngs: working women, are out there chanting: “A free and pearing under a hijab or jilbab or males and deprived females of their housewives, elderly women, democratic Algeria” and “Democ- khimar. Because of the extremist basic rights. Article 39 of the code engineers, doctors, teachers, racy… women’s rights.” discourse of imams in mosques and states that, if a woman is single, she journalists and even the famous, What they mean is “No to a reli- of Islamists everywhere, Alge- is under the guardianship of her such as the iconic female figure gious state. No to applying sharia. rian society at large has started to closest male relative and, if she is of the Algerian liberation revolu- No to Islamists’ rule and no to look at females who did not wear married, then she must obey her tion Djamila Bouhired. They came fundamentalist colonisation.” headscarves as loose women, husband and his family. out as first-class citizens and not Algerian women are not just disrespectful of Islamic rules and Despite this legal and social as irrational and impure beings as demanding their equal rights and often labelled as whores. This siege, Algerian women have not claimed by the Islamists. such other rights, including the explains the tremendous increase surrendered. They have made The presence among protesters right to choose their clothing. They in the number of veiled females in inroads in all of life’s domains and of Bouhired, 83, a symbol of the Al- are out there as citizens demand- Algeria. excelled particularly in their stud- gerian women’s resistance, which ing that their country be freed of This rejection of women did ies. At Algerian universities today, was hijacked after independence, the claws of a failed, corrupt and not spring from the depths of the females outnumber males. had a special effect on all Algerian illegitimate regime. authentic Algerian society but was Every year, Algerian female women. It reminded them of the Novelist Fairouz Recham, author the result of an external invasion students consistently outdo male heroic participation of their grand- of “I was Honoured by Your De- by fundamentalist ideas with the students at university entrance mothers, side by side with Algerian parture,” said the participation of Algerian women have collusion of local Islamist elites, exams. In the 2017 and 2018 exams, men, in Algeria’s war of liberation. Algerian women in demonstrations learned that their both from within the regime and in females represented 65% of the When independence came, men added a distinctive feminine touch the opposition. Because of pressure successful population. Yet, after took all the rights and imposed to them and doubled protesters’ presence in the public by Islamists, the Algerian family university, only 11% of male gradu- inequalities on women. enthusiasm. It was the first time in sphere will not be code did not only justify some old ates remain unemployed while 55% Algerian women do not want to many years that feminist slogans granted to them but and fossilised social norms but also of female graduates are not hired. see that scenario repeated after were shouted in Algerian streets. tried to revive many of them. Statistics for 2018 indicate that the the revolution of smiles today. they must acquire it Take polygamy for instance. Algerian workforce includes 9 mil- They are determined this time that Hamid Zanaz is an Algerian writer themselves. While this practice was on its lion males and 2 million females. liberation will be with them or it living in France. April 28, 2019 21 Society Technology Iraqi youth frustrated with video game ban

Azhar Al-Rubaie torn country.” Basrawi Ali Hani said it was iron- ic the government banned virtual Basra fighting games while allowing real- life militias to operate unchecked. raq’s parliament unanimously “The government has banned voted to ban violent video virtual fighting games but allowed games, including popular mul- for militias to carry weapons and I tiplayer games Fortnite and weaponise society,” Hani said. “I PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds, do not know how they [the govern- citing negative effects on health ment] think and plan! Will blocking and culture. the game solve Iraq’s problems?” “The impact (of violent video Others said that, instead of video games) has spread virally among games, the government should fo- children, young boys and girls,” cus on issues such as reconstruc- Sameaa Gullab, head of the parlia- tion, unemployment and curbing ment’s Culture Committee, said at illegal drug use. a news conference. “(The games) “Instead of having a parliamen- threaten social life, security, mor- tary session to ban video games, it als, civics and education.” is better to vote for decisions [that] Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr had will help displaced people or to called for people to stop playing discuss the construction projects PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds and reconstruction of damaged (PUBG), a South Korean battle areas over all Iraq,” said Baghdad game that has hundreds of mil- resident Abdullah Ahmed Salal. lions of players worldwide, includ- Haidar Emad, a veterinarian ing a significant following in Iraq. from Nasiriyah, said: “Drugs have “What will you gain if you killed spread throughout Iraq, wrecking one or two people in PUBG?” wrote younger people. So why there is no al-Sadr in a statement. “It is not a real action by the government to game for intelligence or a military stop drug dealers?” game that provides you with the “What a shame that the govern- (AP) correct way to fight.” ment has allowed militias to carry Addictive and violent. A boy plays the online game PUBG on his mobile phone. His Sadrist alliance took credit the weapons but voted to ban vir- for the parliamentary ban in a tual games” he added. “Families people from becoming addicted It is unclear when the ban, which did not agree to vote on many im- statement on its website. are responsible for keeping the to the games and to encourage was voted on April 17, is to be im- portant issues of interest for Iraq or While some Iraqis agreed that games (meant for players over 17 healthier behaviour. plemented. The Iraqi Ministry of find drastic solutions to youth un- the government should curb ac- years old) from their children, not Ali Suhail Najm, an Iraqi living Communication said it has not re- employment,” Mimari said. cess to “addictive” and “violent” the government.” in the Netherlands, said he sup- ceived an official order from parlia- “It is best to look at the reasons games, many said the ban violated Ali Mahmoud, an unemployed ported the ban because he felt the ment to bar access to PUBG. why young people and children civil liberties and was a poor policy 25-year-old from Basra, said unem- games pose dangers to youth and However, even when it is put play these kinds of electronic focus for a government facing criti- ployment was driving the uptick make them more undisciplined. into effect, tech-savvy youth are games,” he added, citing unem- cal issues such as extremism and in online video games. “Instead Basra activist and mother of likely to quickly find ways to by- ployment. “There is no support by dilapidated infrastructure. of banning games,” he said, “the three Fatima al-Bahadili said she pass the ban, said Hussein. the ministries for youth to develop “Banning this game (PUBG) is government should provide jobs if was also happy about the ban. “It is not a technology-based de- their talents and skills.” a ban on the freedoms of others,” they care for the people.” “It is intolerable for young cision,” he said. “It is unacceptable to ban video said Dhargham Sabah Hussein, a World Bank data indicate that people to be sitting behind the Former parliament member Tal- games like PUBG and it is a clear in- 26-year-old information security 17% of young Iraqi men and 27% of computer or fixing their eyes on ib Abdulkareem al-Mimari said the fringement on personal freedom,” specialist in Basra. “Whatever the Iraqi women are jobless. phones the whole day,” she said. issue illustrated politicians’ mis- Mimari said. reason or justification, I am against Despite the largely negative re- “This is my first time I support par- placed priorities. the ban because it is an attempt to action, some Iraqis said the ban liament with the decision to ban “Parliamentarians agreed to ban Azhar Al-Rubaie is a freelance violate private freedoms in a war- was necessary to protect young the games.” PUBG in only one day while they journalist in Iraq. Spica Tech, the gaming academy turning children into game producers

Samar Kadi course and taught young children to create their own games. The chil- dren loved it and the feedback from Beirut the parents and teachers was great,” Abbas said. sing children’s passion for Starting as a mobile academy giv- games to motivate creativ- ing workshops here and there, Spica ity is at the core of game Tech offers courses at six sites across U developer Reine Abbas’s Lebanon and is being integrated in Spica Tech Academy, which teaches private schools to teach coding dur- children fundaments of the fast- ing class hours. It has developed growing gaming industry. 16 courses of 20-40 hours, with six Nominated for the 2019 Cartier levels, targeting children above 4, Women’s Initiative Award, which teenagers and young adults. celebrates female entrepreneurs, “We teach them the whole pro- Abbas co-founded Wixel Studios in cess using the software that video 2008, Lebanon’s first indie gaming game developers use in their pro- company, before establishing Spica duction and that includes game A lifetime toolbox. Children learn how to create their own video games at the gaming academy Spica Tech in 2014. design, coding, animation and sto- Tech in Beirut. (Spica Tech) “Our children (in the MENA re- rytelling,” Abbas said. “Once the gion) are among the largest con- game is completed and tested, it is sumers of video games in the published online. In that way, we my own game!’” upheaval in Lebanon. ten High-Profile Women in Video world. We can change them from are empowering the kids and giv- Traditionally, the tech and gam- Shocked by the puppet-like be- Games and among the World 100 being mere consumers to producers ing them the know-how to create a ing industries have been dominated haviour of the people, Abbas and Most Powerful Arab Women in and young entrepreneurs. Instead product.” by men but Abbas, a staunch femi- her partners created a game with 2014, Abbas is hoping to be among of Arabising video games we can Providing youngsters with game nist, said she wants to encourage the roles reversed and the people the seven laureates of the 2019 create our own games,” said Abbas, development skills is meant to give more girls to become interested in become the master and political Cartier Women’s Initiative Award. a visual artist and self-taught game future generations a lifetime tool- the industry, which she said is com- leaders are the puppets. “It was “It was really a dream for me to developer. box in a world that is becoming in- posed of only 15% female producers a massive success. The game was be one of 21 finalists worldwide se- creasingly dependent on technol- and developers. Occasionally, she downloaded thousands of times lected among 3,000 applicants. It ogy, Abbas contended. offers 50% discounts on courses within the first hours after it was is a great boost and an invitation to Spica Tech offers courses “Creating video games is the for girls. She has cooperated with placed online,” Abbas said. develop my business,” said Abbas, at six sites across Lebanon most complex digital process in- NGOs such as Girls Got IT offering Other games designed by Wixel who will be defending her endeav- and is being integrated in volving different disciplines such free courses to 400 girls from poor Studios include “Survival Race: Life our before the Cartier Award jury in private schools to teach as mathematics, physics and art. and disadvantaged families. or Power Plants,” which centres on May in San Francisco. a post-climate change Middle East, Spica Tech will soon launch an coding during class hours. It motivates children to have criti- Abbas’s career in gaming kicked cal thinking, tell a story, design a off when she co-founded the first and “Little Heroes, Big Deeds,” online e-learning platform offering game and do the artistic work, be a gaming start-up in Lebanon — Wix- which raises children’s awareness courses in Arabic, French and Eng- At Spica Tech, children and producer, an artist, a publisher and el Studios. She had spent several about reflexes they should adopt lish. young adults learn how to create market their games,” she said. years as head of the art department when facing domestic or natural “In our Arab region, there is no digital games from scratch. “All kids love games and by at DigiPen Lebanon, which produc- risks. gaming industry because there is The idea for the academy was learning how they are developed, es Nintendo games. Named among the top five most no education in gaming. By teach- triggered when Abbas’s 4-year-old their creativity is strengthened and Wixel Studios created sev- powerful women in gaming by ing children how to do games we son asked her to show him and his they gain self-confidence. Can you eral successful games, including Inc.com in 2013, winner of the can help create small producers classmates how to create video imagine how proud they would “Douma” (“Puppets”), inspired WIT Women in Technology Award and future success stories,” Abbas games. “I put in place a 14-hour feel saying ‘I created and published by street fight during political in 2010, selected one of the top said. 22 April 28, 2019 Culture

Algeria’s cinema production intersects with its politics, reflects today’s turmoil

Roua Khlifi in a complicated situation and in Tunis waiting. When I filmed the movie, it was 2014 and [Algerian President he 19th “Cinema of Peace” Abdelaziz] Bouteflika was very sick. opened with Faisal Ham- It is surreal to think that he would moum’s “Vote Off,” an Al- still run for a fifth term [in 2019],” T gerian documentary on the Hammoum said. country’s 2014 elections that has He added: “These are people like been given an important currency me and you can feel the existent with the widespread protests occur- rupture between youth and politics. ring in Algeria. In Algeria, you see protesters but no Against the backdrop of large- political parties. Protesters are also scale demonstrations in Algeria call- against the opposition. “ ing for sweeping political change in Hammoum spoke about the diffi- 2014, the Algerian film, which was culties he encountered filming, in- screened in Tunis, was an interest- cluding numerous restrictions im- ing topic of discussion for a festival posed on him and his crew, he said, whose theme was “Destiny.” which was monitored closely. The film festival, organised by the Algerian film-maker and actor Na- Tunisian Federation of Film Socie- bil Jadwani said Algeria’s political ties, ran March 12-17. It included a climate has had a profound effect panel discussion on Algerian cin- on cinema, particularly his work to ema and archives, allowing partici- compile and organise a digital ar- Celebrating diversity. An old photograph from Uzbekistan on display at the exhibition in London. pants to explore the complex his- chive. (Karen Dabrowska) tory and political evolution of the “It became a political statement North African country. to try to collect and compile films The opening documentary stud- by film-makers,” Jadwani said. “We A photographic journey through ies the events of Algeria’s most re- need to show the other side of the cent election through spontaneous history of Algerian cinema that is conversations with citizens and scattered everywhere in the world. journalists, as well as footage of These movies constitute an impor- meetings of opposition and leading tant chapter of Algerian cinema the Islamic world then and now parties. but are often neglected by the sys- “The film depicts my reaction to tem because they don’t express the the world’s changes surrounding same political ideology.” “There are film-makers who are Karen Dabrowska me,” said Hammoum. “It is not a question of talking about the elec- celebrated by the state but there are tions but rather what happened in others who contributed greatly but London the background, what people think are overlooked for many reasons about the elections.” and it is important to give these di- epartures: A Pho- Hammoum’s portrayal of what rectors their deserved credits,” he tographic Journey was happening drew the ire of the added. “ Through the Islamic Algerian state, however, which Jadwani noted that the protests D World” creates a pen- worked to censor the film. In 2016, in Algeria reflect a long-overlooked etrating flash of insight into an area it was denied a screening visa at the theme in much of Algerian cinema. from Morocco in the west to China Bejaia Film Festival. “While attempting to research in the east and from the Balkans in “The movie was censored in my and retrace the history of Algerian the north to Sudan in the south. country because the state thought cinema, I noticed that many films The exhibition at London’s Asia the film’s depiction of the president that were discarded often portrayed House is divided into three parts: was offensive while it only focused different representations of real- 30 black-and-white images hand- on people who are going to vote ity like the colonised Algeria or the coloured and turned into works of in the 2014 elections,” Hammoum post-independence era,” Jadwani art that were reproduced as post- said. said. “Many of these film-makers cards; 350 photographs from 1851 He added: “It is not a film about were exiled. to the 1940s shown in a 30-minute an event. I tried to film the presi- “Since independence, they were video; and 130 photographs from Winds of change. An old postcard shows a view of windmills at dent but I didn’t want to film the oppressed by a system that wanted the Islamic world today focusing on the city of Aden in Yemen. (Karen Dabrowska) event of the elections itself. After to clear their image and their rep- everyday life in an 18-minute video. all, the film ends before the results resentation of their own realities. The historic photographs are are out, which was intentional. They managed to escape through from the collection of Tarik Alireza, cause post card publishers recycled were taken by European travellers “We all knew what the results fantasy and imagination, which is, a Saudi architect who collected photographs and a photograph that for a European audience eager for a would be like. That wasn’t the sto- in a way, the thread that connects 15,000 images, mainly postcards, was taken in 1880 and published in taste of the exotic. ry. We all knew he would win. Just many films from different eras of over 40 years. He worked on the ex- 1915 would be dated 1915. Wilding said that, during the past like the title suggests, it is a vote- the history of Algerian cinema espe- hibition with British photographer Wilding said he spent 500 hours 70 years, the Muslim world has lost off. The ‘off’ is also a pun on what cially that censorship continues till Richard Wilding, who created an over four months working on the its diversity. “You could once tell happens in the background of the today. amazing backdrop based on a world exhibition. where someone was from by the event.” “This thread, fantasy and imagi- map from 1851 from the collection “One of the challenges I faced way they dressed. Now more and As protests in Algeria continued nation can be seen in the protests of David Ramsey. was that when you take a small post more people are wearing jeans and now, Hammoum reflected on how of today. It is part of the Algerian “The map was an attempt to com- card and blow it up marks and dust the diversity in costumes and archi- the movie relates to current affairs. identity.” municate the geographical spread show up. I had to edit these out and tecture is being lost because of mo- “All the people in the movie went of the Islamic world,” Wilding said. that took about an hour for every dernity,” he said. out in the protests happening today. Roua Khlifi is a regular Travel “We wanted to create something image. We have photographs from Wilding and Alireza have been No one expected that people would and Culture contributor to that was accessible to adults and regions that have been very much working together for 16 years on protest. I think we were all trapped The Arab Weekly. children and that communicated transformed in the past few years,” books, exhibitions and films all to the diversity of the styles of cos- he said. do with the heritage of the Islamic tumes and architecture.” Wilding and Alireza introduced world. “On the map, we have 80 images, the photographs from Instagram to Arts Programme Manager at Asia including a woman from Bukhara show the contrasts between the Is- House Juan de Lara observed in a in Uzbekistan, two Assyrian ladies lamic world today and in the past. statement that the show would en- from southern Turkey, Kurds from Wilding said he looked through courage audiences to challenge mis- northern Iraq and a boy with a dag- thousands of Instagram photo- conceptions and stereotypes ever- ger from Aden,” he said. graphs and contacted the photog- present in the Islamic world. “In terms of architecture, the raphers who reflected scenes from “Now, more than ever, it is our mosques demonstrate local styles daily life. responsibility to bring to society of contrasting architecture, so you “These images show that al- and our youngsters the tools to bet- have a Chinese mosque in Beijing though religion is an element of the ter understand the converging ele- and mosques in Russia, Mongolia, people’s lives, it is by no means the ments present in our cultures,” de India and Malaysia.” only element. We have people play- Lara stated. The 350 historic images are or- ing sport, rock climbing, running “Asia House seeks to foster en- ganised thematically starting with a marathons and shopping and arti- gagement and understanding be- sequence from the haj showing pil- sans making various crafts,” he said. tween global cultures and this ex- grims departing from their homes, “There are colourful images of hibition is in line with this mission arriving in Mecca and Medina and chili picking in Oman, a Quranic serving as a dialogue between the returning home. This is followed by school in Sudan, a busy street in past and present, between the di- images of markets, cities and urban Tehran, reed cutting in Turkey, Pal- verse cultures and traditions that life, mosques, shrines, camel cara- estinian students in Gaza and the make up the Islamic world and be- vans and the Hejaz railway from Da- port of Alexandria in Egypt.” tween the Islamic world and the mascus to Medina. The exhibition was called “Depar- West.” Wilding pointed out that a lot tures” because it takes the viewer “Departures: A Photograph- of the information on the original on a journey of discovery and pre- ic Journey Through the Islamic postcards was inaccurate. A picture sents a different image of the Is- World” runs through May 3. would be labelled as being from lamic world from the usual media Syria when it was from Turkey. The images of war, sectarianism and de- Karen Dabrowska is an Arab For a timely debate. Poster of the dates were also problematic be- struction. Many of the photographs Weekly contributor in London. Algerian movie “Vote Off.” (Facebook) April 28, 2019 23 Culture Crafts Iraq’s ancient crafts struggling to survive

Oumayma Omar rate their houses with traditional touches. “In rich households, they are mainly used as decorative items Baghdad but many poor Iraqis still use them in their daily life,” he said. tidal wave of cheap imports Oum Mohamad, one of Ibrahim’s is causing the disappear- customers, recalled that wicker ance of traditional crafts items were essential components A and industries in Iraq, such of brides’ trousseau and were found as the art of weaving palm fronds, in every Iraqi household. “We used which goes back to the Mesopota- to offer wicker presents for newly- mian era. weds. Some would request specific Hamed Ibrahim, 49, however, has shapes made in specific regions,” maintained his shop — the Village of she said. Heritage — selling wicker products “I could never go about on my despite minimal financial rewards. daily shopping without the zanbeel “Sustaining the business has be- (shopping basket), for instance. come extremely difficult. Workers Most of us owned wicker items that in traditional crafts are becoming have become a thing from the past, rare and markets are saturated with alas,” said the 70-year-old woman, cheap products from India and Chi- who asked to be identified by her na,” Ibrahim said. nickname. Many wicker shops in the Allawi Ibrahim, whose shop faces the neighbourhood in central Baghdad Ministry of Culture and Tourism, have shifted to selling imported said authorities should create a her- goods but Ibrahim said he is deter- itage market, like those in Damas- mined to continue the business he cus and Istanbul, where craftspeo- had started 40 years ago to preserve ple who work in endangered trades the craft. can gather to sell their goods. “Every day, the ministry’s em- “Safeguarding ancient crafts ployees and even directors visit is tantamount to safeguarding my shop to screen the handicrafts. Iraq’s ancient civilisations.” I take the occasion to relay to them the concerns of the few craftsmen Heritage researcher still working in the traditional pro- A traditional touch. Wicker products on display in central Baghdad. (Oumayma Omar) Amer Abdel Razzak fessions and the need to act quickly to preserve this heritage,” Ibrahim “Traditional Iraqi wicker items said. for a variety of domestic products. civilisations in the manufacture of from their ancestry. cannot be copied,” he said. “Each “Unfortunately, my pleas are fall- The production of basketry and mattresses and furniture,” Abdel “I am keen on dealing with these region has its own special touch. ing on deaf ears. The government matting is labour intensive but Razzak said. “The wicker craft has women and I travel long distances to Products come in different shapes hasn’t made any real effort to pre- does not require specialised tools. been transmitted across genera- acquire their products which have and colours depending on the place serve at least some of the crafts, It could be easily performed in a tions especially among the tribes in become rare commodities. Restau- of manufacturing,” he said even just for the purposes of tour- domestic environment with both southern Iraq. rants are increasingly demanding The shelves in Ibrahim’s shop ism or for the protection of our cul- women and men working on as- “Preserving this heritage by sup- reed items like chairs to give a tradi- are stacked with traditional wares ture. They all make promises but no pects of the craft. Only a strong porting craftsmen who are dropping tional touch to their interior,” Ibra- that were once readily found in real action is taken.” cutting tool is needed to split the out of the profession for financial him said. Iraqi households. These include the Wicker weaving is as old as civi- branches into thin strings, which reasons should be a government pri- “The ancient arts are slowly dis- tabak, a large circular plate for hold- lisation in Mesopotamia — today’s are pressed flat to create sheets. ority,” he said, adding: “Safeguard- appearing and culture will suffer be- ing bread; the mahfa, a hand fan; Iraq — especially in regions rich Heritage researcher Amer Abdel ing ancient crafts is tantamount to yond redemption if nothing is done colourful hasira mats; deep contain- with date trees, an important ma- Razzak said that date palm was an safeguarding Iraq’s ancient civilisa- quickly and effectively,” he added. ers for conservation of dates; bird terial for basketry, matting and important resource in ancient Iraqi tions.” cages; and shopping baskets. ropes. The dense fibres of the tree civilisations, like the Sumerian and Ibrahim is among the few Iraqis Oumayma Omar, based in Ibrahim said reed crafts are popu- trunk are used because they are the Babylonian. trying to salvage the fading craft. He Baghdad, is a contributor to the lar in low-income households and strongest part of the leaves, making “Cuneiform tablets indicate that said it is mostly performed now by Culture and Society section of among collectors who like to deco- wicker products sturdy and suitable palm fronds were used in ancient rural women who inherited the skill The Arab Weekly. Virtual reality museum showcases Palestinian embroidery in Beirut

Samar Kadi dresses and special occasions but Traditional motifs were com- the dramatic developments in Pal- bined with Palestinian flags, doves, estinian modern history took its toll guns and the Dome of the Rock — Beirut on how embroidery has evolved.” symbols of resistance stitched into After the Nakba in 1948, Palestin- the fabric of women’s dresses. abour of Love: New Ap- ian embroidery took on conceptual “Embroidery reflected the wom- proaches to Palestinian and constructed symbolic meaning, an’s personality, as well as her “ Embroidery” is an ex- representing Palestinian heritage, wealth and status. The cut, colour L hibition recounting the longevity and power. Images of em- and form of garments differed be- history of Palestinian embroidery broidery and women wearing em- tween regions, making for rich and and its evolution from an individual broidered dresses circulated widely diverse clothing traditions; designs practice to an industry and a marker on political posters within the Pal- even varied from one village to an- of national identity. estinian territories and abroad. other,” said virtual tour guide Fa- The virtual reality exhibit is at Dar “This marks how embroidery, tima Abdel Jawad. el Nimer Centre or Arts and Culture which was probably very extrava- “Some dresses on display are in Beirut, the second stop after Am- gant at different points in the his- 100 years old, from the early 20th man. tory of Palestine, has evolved into century. We see dresses that were Staged in the Palestinian Museum something else,” Thawabeh said. donned by peasants and others by of Birzeit in the West Bank, the ex- “For instance, in the first intifada, rich and prominent women. Light hibition explores Palestinian em- when the Israelis prohibited the coloured, sun-bleached dresses re- broidery through the lenses of sex, display of the Palestinian flag, it veal female labour working in the labour, national symbol, capital and was embroiderers who incorporat- field wore them.” class. ed it into dresses with certain slo- One dress that dates to 1915, At the heart of the exhibition gans in Arabic.” which was donated by a rich A symbol of national heritage. Embroidered cloth shown on the lies a “forest” of 100 old embroi- “The evolution of em- woman to a peasant virtual tour. (Dar el Nimer) dered dresses and accessories, broidery was after the Nakba, is drawn from every region of closely connect- patched with cloth from the Palestinian territories. ed and influenced a sack of UN refugee agen- “You could tell from which area were founded to provide support These range from everyday at- by political and so- cy flour. Other dresses car- the embroidery came just by look- and employment for refugee wom- tire to peasant and extravagant cial developments,” rying indigo embroidery ing at the colours and patterns. Em- en and their families. garments and militant, national- he added. at the bottom were worn broidery experts can tell you this is In addition to the dresses and ac- istic ‘”intifada dresses,” which only by widows. from Jerusalem or this one is from cessories, the exhibition features rendered women’s bodies ac- “Each dress is about Tulkarm, this from Gaza, et cetera.” archival photographs, posters and tive sites of political resistance identity and a record of While embroidery has been tra- paintings by Palestinian artists in- during the first intifada. Palestinian presence ditionally a craft practised by rural spired by Palestinian embroidery “The show basically traces in every corner of Pal- women, the exhibition showcases and incorporated it in their work. embroidery’s shift from a cre- estine. They have dif- pieces embroidered by Palestinian “It is a beautiful exhibition and ation produced on a fam- ferent patterns male prisoners. we are glad to bring a piece of Pales- ily scale to a powerful and colours. “In periods when crafts were tine to Beirut and share it with the symbol of national her- Those made in banned by the Israeli authorities, audience here,” Thawabeh said. itage, then a product the north car- men would embroider secretly in- “Labour of Love: New Approach- circulated in interna- ried less em- side their cells. Cloth and threads es to Palestinian Embroidery” is the tional markets,” said Omar broidery than were smuggled inside the prison,” second exhibition by curator Rachel Thawabeh, communica- in the south Abdel Jawad said. Dedman for the Palestinian Mu- tion officer at Dar el where the col- Today Palestinian embroidery seum. It expands on the museum’s Nimer. ours used are is largely available on the market. 2016 satellite exhibition, “At the “Traditionally, darker,” Ab- The Nakba significantly altered the Seams: A Political History of Pales- An evolving art. Embroidered Palestinian accessories shown on women produced em- del Jawad ex- structure of embroidery’s produc- tinian Embroidery.” It runs through the virtual tour. (Dar el Nimer) broidery for wedding plained. tion. Embroidery organisations April 30. 24 April 28, 2019 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

Dubai: Through May 5

The tenth Dubai International Arabic Calligraphy Exhibition will feature works by an array of calligraphers exploring modern and traditional techniques of calligraphic expression.

Marrakech: Through May 16

The Marrakech Biennale is a festival with the mission to build bridges between cultures through the arts. The seventh A seagull flies over the ancient edition is taking a multidisci- medina of Essaouira. (AP) plinary approach to introduce artists and works primarily from the Arab world, the Mediter- ranean region and sub-Saharan Africa.

Beirut: Through June 1 Morocco’s Essaouira inspires artists, The Laugh Story Comedy Show takes place Thursday through Saturday at the Royal Hotel. The programme features comedians draws tourists and foreign retirees such as Tony Abou Jaoude, Hi- cham Haddad, Bonita Saade and Jad Bou Karam. Faisal Abdul Hassan Nights.” Visitors often sense that tastefully furnished apartments at furniture carved of expensive juni- this location has been seen before, much lower prices compared to a per wood and other amazing hand- Dubai: especially when looking at the city hotel or resort. decorated arts and crafts. May 9-13 Essaouira walls and the gates Essaouira is a Shaya al-Ghafli, a 27-year-old visi- of the old Portu- vibrant, warm and tor from the United Arab Emirates, The 11th Dubai Tango Festival he minute visitors enter the guese fortress beautiful city. It said this was not his first time in Es- includes tango workshops with Moroccan city of Essaouira, of Sqala. It’s can be visited dur- saouira. “If you visit Essaouira once, milongas for famous tango near Marrakech, they ex- not surpris- ing any season you’ll come back a thousand times,” dancers and singers. T perience a sense of having ing because because it he said. stepped into a unique place. It’s a the city has enjoys a mild He and his travelling companion, Amman: place that carries visitors back into appeared in climate all year Rashed, said they love the city and During May childhood memories and dreams of many films, round. Whether its tranquillity. They go to Essaoui- fantastic and imaginary cities. including in summer ra to practise their favourite sport, Starting on the third night of It’s a quiet and happy city where Oliver or in winter, hang gliding, because the area is Ramadan, Amman each year cel- the past mingles nicely with the Stone’s temperatures swept by favourable winds all year ebrates traditional Arab culture present. The simplicity of its inhab- 2004 in Essaouira long. with the Citadel Nights Festival. itants and the beauty of its wind- movie hover in the 20s Food lovers will take to the deli- The city comes to life each night ing narrow streets, its ramparts, its “Alexan- degrees Celsius. ciously spiced sardines grilled near of Ramadan with concerts, fortress, its gardens, its doors and der,” and In this beau- the port. It’s a local delicatessen. recitals of classical Arab music, every inch of ground give the im- Essaouira’s tiful weather, The city boasts of more than 60 res- traditional dishes and authentic pression of being transported into a narrow visitors can taurants serving delicious dishes souks. medieval city. streets and markets have engage in prepared with freshly caught fish, appeared in many paint- many outdoor straight to the table from the Atlan- Oman: Essaouira is a vibrant, ings by Moroccan and sports and tic. During June and July foreign artists. activities, Services in Essaouira are inex- warm and beautiful city. It takes two hours by car including pensive and this has encouraged Taking place annually in Dhofar It can be visited during to reach Essaouira from wind- many foreigners, especially retirees, province, the Salalah Tourism any season because it Marrakech. The 170km sep- surfing, to move to the city permanently. Festival hosts street shows, con- enjoys a mild climate all arating the two cities can be sailing, Frenchman Emmanuel, 80, and his certs, games, fireworks, cultural year round. covered by a taxi van for ten horseback son Emile, 50, are among those who activities and food stalls for both passengers or by booking a and camel- have been living in Essaouira for locals and tourists. Bounded on three sides by the tour with one of the many back riding. years. Atlantic Ocean, the city invokes operators in the area. Essaouira’s Emile opened a pharmacy in the Beirut: images from the legend of Sinbad In addition to luxury ho- beaches are city and quickly learned the Moroc- July 23 the Sailor and pirate stories. Look- tels and resorts, visitors can a favourite can dialect, even though he said he ing from the top of the ancient wall choose to stay in individual destination still finds difficulties in pronounc- Musician Yanni will perform his of its harbour, each wave that laps apartments. All modern for Moroccan and foreign ing certain sounds. “As soon as my first concert in Lebanon as part the rocky shores reminds of ship- amenities such as health visitors. Accommodation father visited Essaouira in 1990, he of his World Without Borders wrecked sea captains and drowned clubs, tennis courts, swim- prices are reasonable and the fell in love with it and decided to live tour. He will be accompanied by sailors since the time of the Phoe- ming pools, restaurants and moderately priced restaurant here permanently,” said Emile. an orchestra of virtuoso musi- nicians before the sixth century, shops are available in practi- menus, especially in the old Essaouira was listed among UN- cians and vocalists. when the city was founded. cally all tourist accommoda- section of town, will entice visi- ESCO’s World Heritage Sites in 2001. However, Essaouira is also a mod- tions in Essaouira. tors to extend their stays. Data from a publication of the Mo- Beiteddine: ern city with its up-to-date hotels, Should a traveller prefer inde- Visitors flock to Essaouira’s roccan Tourism National Office July 18-August 10 streets, parks, beaches and painting pendent accommodations that re- markets, especially on Sun- stated that 500,000 visitors went to studios. mind of home, there are independ- days, for the traditional Moroc- Essaouira in 2018. The annual Beiteddine Art There are archaeological sites in ent brokers and real estate agents can gold and silver jewellery, Festival, situated in the Chouf the city that remind visitors of the at any of the cafes in down- brightly coloured pottery, hand- Faisal Abdul Hassan is an Iraqi mountains, includes a variety of tales of “One Thousand and One town Essaouira who rent woven carpets, mementoes and writer. performances from opera and concerts to theatre and art exhi- bitions. The festival welcomes more than 50,000 visitors as well as numerous star perform- ers.

Carthage: During July-August 15

The Carthage Festival is one of the oldest arts and cultural events in North Africa, drawing a mix of local and international performers to Tunisia over several weeks. Performances take place at the Amphitheatre of Carthage.

We welcome submissions of calendar items related to cultural events of interest to travellers in the Middle East and North Africa.

A surfer poses on the site of Moulay Bouzerktoune, near Essaouira. (AFP) Please send tips to: [email protected]