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HOW A GLOBAL TRADING SYSTEM DIES SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2019 / / • • Autocracy • Now FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM FA_SO19_cover.indd All Pages 7/18/19 11:23 AM DOWNLOAD CSS Notes, Books, MCQs, Magazines www.thecsspoint.com Download CSS Notes Download CSS Books Download CSS Magazines Download CSS MCQs Download CSS Past Papers The CSS Point, Pakistan’s The Best Online FREE Web source for All CSS Aspirants. Email: [email protected] BUY CSS / PMS / NTS & GENERAL KNOWLEDGE BOOKS ONLINE CASH ON DELIVERY ALL OVER PAKISTAN Visit Now: WWW.CSSBOOKS.NET For Oder & Inquiry Call/SMS/WhatsApp 0333 6042057 – 0726 540316 CSS Compulsory Solved MCQs from 2000 to 2019 & CSS Compulsory Solved Subjective Papers from 2016 to 2019 BUY CSS SOLVED MCQs BOOKS ONLINE CASH ON DELIVERY CALL/SMS 03336042057 | Visit: http://cssbooks.net Volume 98, Number 5 AUTOCRACY NOW Putin the Great 10 Russia’s Imperial Impostor Susan B. Glasser Party Man 18 Xi Jinping’s Quest to Dominate China Richard McGregor Erdogan’s Way 26 The Rise and Rule o Turkey’s Islamist Shapeshifter Kaya Genc The Vigilante President 36 COVER: How Duterte’s Brutal Populism Conquered the Philippines THE Sheila S. Coronel HEADS The Transformer 44 OF STATE Orban’s Evolution and Hungary’s Demise Paul Lendvai September/October 2019 FA.indb 1 7/18/19 7:15 PM ESSAYS The Sources of Chinese Conduct 86 Are Washington and Beijing Fighting a New Cold War? Odd Arne Westad Competition Without Catastrophe 96 How America Can Both Challenge and Coexist With China Kurt M. Campbell and Jake Sullivan The Old World and the Middle Kingdom 112 Europe Wakes Up to China’s Rise Julianne Smith and Torrey Taussig Trump’s Assault on the Global Trading System 125 And Why Decoupling From China Will Change Everything Chad P. Bown and Douglas A. Irwin The Dictators’ Last Stand 138 Why the New Autocrats Are Weaker Than They Look Yascha Mounk The Return of Doomsday 150 The New Nuclear Arms Race—and How Washington and Moscow Can Stop It Ernest J. Moniz and Sam Nunn Winning the Peace in Iraq 162 Don’t Give Up on Baghdad’s Fragile Democracy Linda Robinson ON FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM Yuen Yuen Ang on the Ivan Briscoe on the Bernie Sanders on struggle over the Belt political crisis how to end America’s and Road Initiative. roiling Venezuela. forever wars. September/October 2019 FA.indb 3 7/18/19 7:15 PM The India Dividend 173 New Delhi Remains Washington’s Best Hope in Asia Robert D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis The Internet Freedom League 184 How to Push Back Against the Authoritarian Assault on the Web Richard A. Clarke and Rob Knake Can America Still Protect Its Allies? 193 How to Make Deterrence Work Michael O’Hanlon REVIEWS & RESPONSES Bad News 204 Can Democracy Survive I the Media Fail? Jacob Weisberg An American in Cairo 210 Egypt Through Western Eyes Lisa Anderson The Population Bust 216 Demographic Decline and the End o Capitalism as We Know It Zachary Karabell Recent Books 222 Letters to the Editor 244 “Foreign Aairs . will tolerate wide dierences of opinion. Its articles will not represent any consensus of beliefs. What is demanded of them is that they shall be competent and well informed, representing honest opinions seriously held and convincingly expressed. It does not accept responsibility for the views in any articles, signed or unsigned, which appear in its pages. What it does accept is the responsibility for giving them a chance to appear.” Archibald Cary Coolidge, Founding Editor Volume 1, Number 1 • September 1922 September/October 2019 FA.indb 5 7/18/19 7:15 PM September/October 2019 · Volume 98, Number 5 Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Editor, Peter G. Peterson Chair - Executive Editor , ¡ Managing Editors ¢ Web Editor £ ¤¢¢¤¢ Deputy Web Editor ¤¢, -¥ Associate Editors ¤¥ Social Media and Audience Development Editor ¥, ¡¢ ¥¢¤¢ Sta Editors ¢ ¥ Art Director Copy Chie ¦ Business Operations Director ¢§ Editorial Assistant Book Reviewers ¢ . ¢, ¢ ¦¥, ¨¢ . ¦¤, . ¥£, ¤ ¤, ¨ ¤¡¢, ¨ . , ¢ ¡ ¨, ¨¥£ ¤ Chie Revenue O cer ¢ Circulation Operations Director ¢£ ¦ Director o Product ¡ Marketing Director ¨ ¨ Advertising Director ¤¢ Senior Manager, Advertising Accounts and Operations ¢¡ Senior Manager, Events and Business Development ¢ . ¤ Senior Manager, Digital Analytics and Audience Development ¢ ¦£, ¦ ¢¨£ Marketing Operations Coordinators £ Customer Retention Coordinator © Production and Business Coordinator ¥ ¡ Marketing Promotions Associate ¢ ¢ Deputy Director, Digital Development ¡ Manager o Web Development ¤ ¨ Front End Web Developer ¤ Quality Assurance Manager , ¡ ¢, ¢£ Media Relations Board of Advisers ¤ ¤¢ Chair . ¥, . ¥, ¥. ¥, ¡ ¥£, ¢, ¢, ¢ . , ¦¢ ¦£¤, ¤ . ¢, , ¢ . £, ¨¤ . ¤¢¡, ¤¢ . ¤, ¢ , ¢ ¨, ¢¢ , ¡ . £, ¤ . ¨, . ¨, . £ ¡¢£ ¤¥¤: Foreign A airs ForeignA airs.com/services 58 E. 68th Street, New York, NY 10065 ¡¤§¤¨¢£¤: ¬²¥¤¡£³: Call Edward Walsh at 212-434-9527 or visit 800-829-5539 U.S./Canada www.foreigna airs.com/advertising 845-267-2017 All other countries ´¤ ¡¤: ForeignA airs.com ¤«¬§: foreigna [email protected] £¤´§¤¡¡¤: ForeignA airs.com/newsletters «¬§: P.O. Box 324, Congers, NY 10920 µ¬¤¢¢¶: Facebook.com/ForeignA airs ¤¢²¡¢£: The contents o Foreign A airs are copyrighted. No part o the magazine may be reproduced, hosted or distributed in any form or by any means without prior written permission from Foreign A airs. To obtain permission, visit ForeignA airs.com/permissions Foreign A airs is a member o the Alliance for Audited Media and the Association o Magazine Media. GST Number 127686483RT Canada Post Customer #4015177 Publication #40035310 FA.indb 6 7/18/19 7:15 PM CONTRIBUTORS SUSAN GLASSER wanted to be a journalist from the age o ten, when she helped her parents distribute copies o a newspaper they founded in Washington, D.C. She began working at The Washington Post in 1998 and eventually spent four years as joint Moscow bureau chie for the newspaper. A former editor in chie o Foreign Policy and a current sta writer at The New Yorker, Glasser is a co-author (with Peter Baker) o Kremlin Rising: Vladimir Putin’s Russia and the End of Revolution. In “Putin the Great” (page 10), Glasser recounts the Russian presi- dent’s unlikely rise and inimitable rule. As a young reporter in the Philippines in the 1980s, SHEILA CORONEL worked for opposition newspapers exposing abuses perpetrated by the regime o Ferdinand Marcos. She went on to become one o Asia’s most celebrated journalists, co-founding the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism in 1989. Now, Coronel is a professor o journalism at Columbia University. In “The Vigilante President” (page 36), she examines how as president, Rodrigo Duterte has replicated the brutal, lawless tactics he honed as mayor o Davao. ODD ARNE WESTAD’s interest in China began during a year he spent as an undergraduate at Peking University, where every morning he had to shout Maoist slogans with the other students. Since then, Westad has become one o the most distinguished historians o modern China and the Cold War. He is the author o numerous books, including The Global Cold War, which received the 2006 Bancroft Prize. Now a professor at Yale University, in “The Sources o Chinese Conduct” (page 86), Westad asks whether the United States and China have entered a new Cold War. LISA ANDERSON is one o the United States’ foremost experts on Egypt. From 2011 to 2015, she served as president o the American University in Cairo; before that, she was dean o Columbia’s School o International and Public A airs, as well as chair o the Political Science Department. Anderson, who has also taught at Harvard and Princeton, is now profes- sor emerita o international relations at Columbia. In “An American in Cairo” (page 210), she re¡ects on the journalist Peter Hessler’s account o postrevolutionary Egypt. 02_TOC_Blues.indd 7 7/22/19 5:47 PM AUTOCRACY NOW istorical eras tend to have populist authoritarian, he has become characteristic leadership types: the country’s longest-serving and most Hthe edgling democrats o the signicant leader since Ataturk. 1920s, the dictators o the 1930s and Rodrigo Duterte o the Philippines is 1940s, the nationalist anticolonialists o comfortable shooting people and wants the 1950s and 1960s, the gerontocrats o you to know it, notes Sheila Coronel. the 1970s, the edgling democrats He made his name as a tough mayor (again) o the 1980s and 1990s. Now bringing order to a crime-ridden city, we’re back to dictators. and as president, he oers that experi- The leading gures on the world ence as a national model—“Singapore stage today practice a brutal, smash- with thugs instead o technocrats.” mouth politics, a personalized authori- And Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Paul tarianism. Old-school strongmen, they Lendvai explains, started o as a liberal do whatever is needed to grasp and hold activist before cynically switching to on to power. Here we prole ve to see populist nationalism when the political what makes them tick. All fought their winds shifted—and as prime minister, way from obscurity to the throne and he has proceeded to dismantle demo- then took a hard authoritarian turn. But cratic institutions and undermine the how, and why? rule o law. Susan Glasser says that Russia’s There is no scholarly consensus on Vladimir Putin sees himsel as a latter- what role individuals play in history, day Peter the Great. He fetishizes relative to broader structural forces in strength, dreams o restoring imperial their environment. You can tell any grandeur, and rules by the old tsarist political story you want through the lens doctrine o “Orthodoxy, Autocracy, o the people involved, making it appear Nationality.” that their choices mattered greatly. And According to Richard McGregor, you can tell the same story with abstract China’s Xi Jinping is driven by paternal trends doing the work and human hero worship and devotion to the particularity washed out o the picture. Chinese Communist Party. Having So how much do details about these concluded that the party’s rule was men’s lives and characters matter? How under growing threat, he has devoted his would history be unfolding without time in o¥ce to restoring its dominance.
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