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2018 Ybarra Vincent T Thesis.Pdf (1.288Mb) UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE SELF-EVALUATION OF SKILLS AND OVERCONFIDENCE VULNERABILITY: ARE MOST PEOPLE BLIND TO THEIR OWN DECISION MAKING BIASES? A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE By VINCENT T. YBARRA Norman, Oklahoma 2018 SELF-EVALUATION OF SKILL AND OVERCONFIDENCE VULNERABILITY: ARE MOST PEOPLE BLIND TO THEIR DECISION MAKING BIASES? A THESIS APPROVED FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF PSYCHOLOGY BY ______________________________ Dr. Edward Cokely, Chair ______________________________ Dr. Robert Terry ______________________________ Dr. Scott Gronlund ______________________________ Dr. Rocio Garcia-Retamero © Copyright by VINCENT T. YBARRA 2018 All Rights Reserved. Dedicated to my grandfather Robert J. Brunel Table of Contents List of Tables ................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures ................................................................................................................. vii Abstract .......................................................................................................................... viii Chapter 1: Numeracy and Self-Evaluation of Decision Skill ........................................... 1 1.1 An Overview of the Bias Blind Spot .................................................................... 1 1.2 Bias Blind Spot and How it Relates to General Decision Making Skill .............. 8 Chapter 2: Participants and Measurements .................................................................... 11 2.1 Participants ......................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Procedure and Materials ..................................................................................... 11 Bias Blind Spot Measure .................................................................................... 12 Numeracy ........................................................................................................... 13 Descriptive Decision Tasks ................................................................................ 13 Standard Cognitive Abilities .............................................................................. 14 Chapter 3: Methods and Results ..................................................................................... 15 3.1 Bias Blind Spot Replication ............................................................................... 15 3.2 Factor Analysis and Creation of Cognitive Bias Blind Spot Measure ............... 17 3.3 Showing Over and Under Confidence in General Decision Making via Bias Blind Spot, Decision Tasks, and Numeracy ................................................. 22 3.4 What Predicts Perceptions of Cognitive and Social Decision Skill? ................. 25 Chapter 4: Confidence Competence and Self-Evaluation as Skills Related to General Decision Making Skill and Numeracy ............................................................... 27 4.1 Using Bias Blind Spot to Identify Overconfidence ............................................ 29 iv 4.2 Train self-evaluation not the bias blind spot to protect from overconfidence .... 31 4.3 Confidence Competence as Evidence for Subjective Measures ......................... 33 4.4 Metacognition: The Mechanics of Why General Decision Training Works and Why Subjective Evaluations of Skill are Accurate ...................................... 35 Chapter 5: People are Not Blind to Their Biases ........................................................... 37 Appendix A: Exploratory Factor Analysis ..................................................................... 47 Appendix B: Stepwise Regression of Bias Blind Spot ................................................... 51 Appendix C: Bias Blind Spot ......................................................................................... 57 Appendix D: BNT-C Numeracy Battery ........................................................................ 63 Appendix E: Berlin Numeracy Test (BNT-S; Cokely et al., 2012) ................................ 76 Appendix F: Heuristic and Biases (Toplak et al., 2011) ................................................ 78 Appendix G: Ecological Decision Battery ..................................................................... 86 Appendix H: Adult Decision Making Competency (Bruine de Bruin, Parker, & Fischhoff, 2007) ............................................................................................... 104 v List of Tables Table 1 ............................................................................................................................ 19 Table 2 ............................................................................................................................ 20 vi List of Figures Figure 1.. ......................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 2.. ......................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 3.. ......................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 4.. ......................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 5. .......................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 6. .......................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 7. .......................................................................................................................... 31 vii Abstract Skilled decision making is an acquired skill that often leads to better life outcomes (e.g. wealth, health, and happiness) (Cokely et al., 2012; 2018). There is a growing body of literature centered on Bias Blind Spot which states that individuals are biased in self- evaluation. On average, people inaccurately perceive themselves as better decision makers than the public, regardless of individual differences (Pronin Lin, & Ross, 2002; Scopelliti et al., 2015; West, Meserve, & Stanovich, 2012). Given that skilled decision makers tend to better understand themselves compared to others, it is hypothesized that those who are more numerate are less biased and know it (Kruger & Dunning, 1999; Ghazal, Cokely, Garcia-Retamero, 2014). To test this, 309 participants answered high fidelity tests of decision making skill and completed a newly formed bias blind spot measure that includes representative questions of both social and cognitive biases. Results suggest that skilled decision makers tend to be better than average on decision tasks and their confidence reflects accuracy in their performance. Findings indicate that quality of self-evaluation may be a function of general decision making skill. Implications for training and self-regulated learning are discussed. viii Chapter 1: Numeracy and Self-Evaluation of Decision Skill General decision making skill refers to the stable differences in judgment and decision making quality across diverse domains and is correlated with positive life outcomes (e.g., health, wealth, and happiness). The best predictor of general decision making skill is numeracy (Cokely et al., 2012; 2014; 2018; Peters et al., 2006; Reyna, Nelson, Han, & Dieckman, 2009). Numeracy tends to mechanically show how an individual can expertly employ metacognitive, heuristic, or gist-based strategies to problem solving which can potentially lead to important lifesaving outcomes, like not ignoring the signs of a heart attack (Cokely & Kelly, 2009; Ghazal, Cokely, & Garcia- Retamero, 2014; Reyna & Mills, 2014; Petrova et al., 2016). One example of displaying metacognitive skill can be found in Ghazal et al. (2014) where the goal of the article was to answer the question of why numerate individuals do better on decision making tasks. A curvilinear relationship was found between performance and confidence parallel to the results found with unskilled and unaware studies (Kruger & Dunning, 1999). Interestingly, the research on numerate individuals knowing their own and others’ decision making capabilities is at odds with previous research looking at the phenomenon known as the bias blind spot. Research on the bias blind spot implies that a skilled decision maker would be able to recognize bias within others, but not within themselves. Are people blind to their biases? 1.1 An Overview of the Bias Blind Spot In the initial bias blind spot paper, by Pronin, Lin, and Ross (2002), individuals spanning from students to airline passengers believed themselves to be less biased than their peers on average. The study investigated the issue of biases that compromise lay 1 inferences and judgments from the perspective that all individuals perceive the world uniquely due to the experiences that they bring and the distorting lens of values and ideology. The paper takes the stance that people 1) can perceive decision bias in others and 2) that people lack the ability to recognize these biases in themselves or recognize them to a less degree; “people recognize the existence, and the impact, of most of the biases that social and cognitive psychologists have described over the past few decades. What they lack recognition of, I argue, is the role that
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