DOCSLIB.ORG

US Economic Autumn Outlook | August 31, 2015 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
US Economic Autumn Outlook | August 31, 2015 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH US Economic Autumn Outlook | August 31, 2015 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH August 31, 2015 MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC Ellen Zentner US Economic Autumn Outlook [email protected] +1 212 296-4882 Ted Wieseman Sobering Up On Supply Side [email protected] +1 212 761-3407 Paula Campbell Roberts [email protected] +1 212 761-3043 Domestic momentum should be enough to lead the Fed to deliver a Robert Rosener December rate hike as downside risks to inflation ease. Thereafter, [email protected] +1 212 296-5614 depressed productivity and lower potential growth take center stage. Forecast Highlights: More muted growth outlook—productivity picks up only moderately; potential GDP growth and NAIRU are lower. Slower path for policy tightening—we have removed 50bps of tightening in 2016 via one less rate hike and delayed balance sheet action. Job growth slows sharply in 2017—we expect 50k average monthly job growth by the end of 2017 on a gradual rise in productivity and renewed downtrend in participation, just enough to keep the unemployment rate steady. Outlook for inflation little changed—headline inflation remains largely oil-driven. For core inflation, housing-led upside in core services prices is offset by dollar appreciation and weakness in more globally-driven core goods prices. Downward revision to growth in 2015/16—2015 GDP revised lower to 2.4%Y vs 2.5% previously, 2016 comes down by 0.8pp to 1.9%Y and we initiate 2017 at 1.8%Y. A US recession enters the bear case—in our bear case we explore the possibility of a US recession within the next 12 months. For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosures Section, located at the end of this report. 1 US Economic Autumn Outlook | August 31, 2015 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH Exhibit 1: US Economic Autumn Outlook: Forecast Update (4Q/4Q) New Forecast Previous (4Q/4Q % Change) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 Real GDP 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.5 Final Sales 2.6 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.5 2.5 Final Domestic Demand 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.9 2.6 2.6 PCE 3.2 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.3 Business Fixed Investment 5.5 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.3 3.9 Residential Fixed Investment 5.1 11.3 8.9 3.5 8.5 7.2 Exports 2.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 3.2 4.0 Imports 5.4 4.6 3.9 4.1 3.5 4.1 Government 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.6 1.3 1.7 CPI 1.2 0.3 1.9 2.4 0.5 2.1 Core PCEPI 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.2 1.8 Unemployment Rate* 5.7 5.1 4.8 4.8 5.1 4.8 *Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average in 4Q of the year indicated. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts A nd the Beat Goes Marching On One year ago we released collaborative analysis with our US equity strategists in which we stressed that this business expansion could be the longest on record (see 2020 Vision: Long Live the Expansion, September 4, 2014). With this forecast update the "lower, but longer" argument has only strengthened. Macro signs of overheating are few and far between, we have sobered up on productivity trends and lowered our assumption of the economy's potential, as well as shallowed out the path of monetary policy response. Long live the expansion. At the same time, we are more than six years into this business expansion, the world remains a scary place, and monetary policy missteps lurk in the shadows. In this outlook we introduce a bear case that explores the possibility of a mild US recession in 2H16, assigning it a symmetric probability of 20% against the bull case in which a more "normal" normal emerges. Read on. Our Updated Outlook: Slower Growth, Lower Policy Path We have revised lower our estimate for 2015 growth to 2.4%Y (2.0% 4Q/4Q) compared with 2.5%Y (2.3% 4Q/4Q) in our Spring Outlook owing primarily to a mark-to-market for transitory headwinds early in the year. We have also sharply lowered our growth forecast for 2016 by 0.8pps to 1.9%Y (1.8% 4Q/4Q) to account for weaker global trade than previously assumed, and what we believe to be undeniable evidence of a lower sustainable trend growth rate for the economy that anchors our forecasts. We maintain our expectation the Fed first raises rates at the December 2015 meeting, but we have lowered our assumption for the Fed’s end-2016 target range by 25bps to 1.375% compared with 1.625% in our Spring Outlook baseline. We have also removed an additional 25bps in balance sheet equivalent tightening by moving out our assumption of when the Fed begins tapering reinvestments in MBS, to 4Q16. With this forecast update we initiate our take on growth in 2017 at 1.8%Y (also 1.8% 4Q/4Q). Throughout the forecast horizon, growth persists above the economy’s potential, which we currently peg at around 1.5%Y. Lower potential growth is associated with a lower neutral real rate, which we expect to rise gradually over the coming years as persistent headwinds fade. The Fed will aim to move in line with the drift higher over time. This gradual path of tightening puts the Fed’s target range at 2.375% by end-2017. 2 US Economic Autumn Outlook | August 31, 2015 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH We expect the rate of productivity to improve to around 1%Y in 2016 after remaining about flat in the prior two years on a lack of capital deepening. A steady participation rate in 2016 would suggest average monthly payroll gains slow to about 175k compared with 200k in 2015. But as the downtrend in participation resumes, we expect average job gains to slow materially to 50k per month by late 2017—just enough to hold the unemployment rate about steady. Productivity gains coupled with sluggish global growth lead to improved, but moderate overall investment, while the drag from energy investment diminishes. Commercial building and R&D activity are the bright spots for growth in investment. After being on a tear since late summer 2014, we expect the trade-weighted USD to rise moderately in 2016 before flattening out as global growth picks up steam. Year-over-year growth in core PCE remains at a low of 1.3% through 3Q before bumping up to 1.4% in 4Q15 and rises only gradually to reach 1.9% by end-2017. Household formation rates have finally moved back above the historically normal 1 million mark, credit conditions slowly improve, and residential investment is a bright spot in our outlook. Growth in home prices continues to whittle away at negative equity, while years of strong job gains coupled with lower energy expenses and prudent control over balance sheets keep consumer liquidity elevated. The personal savings rate falls back to around 5% over our forecast horizon, supporting a moderate pace of spending. Exhibit 2: US Forecast Update: Comparison to Previous Forecast & FOMC Projections Source: Federal Reserve, Morgan Stanley Research 3 US Economic Autumn Outlook | August 31, 2015 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH The Near-Term Fed Outlook I nflation and the December Fed Call Recent policymaker rhetoric implies the Fed sees downside risks to the outlook as having increased and will take a pass on raising rates at the September meeting, but keeps hopes alive that conditions will warrant a rate hike before the end of the year. We expect the Fed to first raise its target rate at the December meeting, having judged by then that downside risks have eased. In our Spring Outlook, we made the decision to move our long-standing call that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would first raise rates in 2016 forward to December 2015. Our judgement was that an important part of the Fed's reaction function—its rhetoric—had changed. At its March meeting forecasts for growth and inflation were marked measurably lower yet no policymaker shifted their expected timing of the first rate hike into 2016. This was the start of a strong unwavering message that has carried through to its June meeting, the latest in which the Fed delivered forecast materials. In April, when we pulled our rate hike expectation forward to December, clients asked why not earlier? To be sure, at the time the Fed was still telling us that a mid-2015 rate hike would be appropriate. Then, as today, we let the expected path of inflation guide us. The Fed aims to raise rates once it "has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term." On the former, there's room for only "some" improvement as the unemployment rate, at 5.3% in July, is closing in on the level the Fed considers to represent fully employed labor resources. And the trend has been our friend with a continued low pace of initial claims for jobless benefits and a firm run rate of monthly average job growth around 200,000. On the latter, the downside risks to inflation have risen and the Fed will need to gauge those risks as having eased before raising rates.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Financial Leverage Meaning with Example
    Financial Leverage Meaning With Example Idolatrously unpardonable, Uriah syntonising emblazoner and tends dying. Elder Zeke sometimes wauls his electromagnet semplice and sorn so soulfully! Huge and acclamatory Ransell always retied thievishly and fall-back his banks. What is leverage, and her shack increased stock is the shareholder value falls in leverage with financial What process do I follow for researching a new company? It indicates how a business uses fixed costs to turn into a profit. Robinhood Securities, LLC, provides brokerage clearing services. AY, _t: timestamp, original_referrer: document. Counselors can help you prevail a solid budget and air up stream a repayment plan that works for you. Financial leverage comes with a greater operational risk for companies in industries like automobile manufacturing, construction and oil production. Operating with financial leverage means that increase its stock or hansen are accredited investors and is meaning of factors such medical services. Increasing financial leverage increases the financial risk of the company. While having talent is fantastic, even a lucky break, everyone has a story of the one who squandered it. Both companies pay an annual rent, which is their only fixed expense. Trading with examples of debt means you would mean a given, meaning of return on equity a village to your initial investment. The option now wishes to raise that fund of Rs. If these ratios seem exceptionally high, lenders may met the firm to raise more equity or before lending. Borrowers may bond a relatively small upfront investment. However, it is advisable to exercise caution when dealing with financial leverage indexes as it escalates the discrepancy in expected returns.
    [Show full text]
  • Ex Ante PD and LGD Estimates: Analysis and Summary of IRB Bank Contributions
    Collective Intelligence For Global Finance Whitepaper // No.5 Ex Ante PD and LGD estimates: Analysis and summary of IRB bank contributions With reference to the request for submissions by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision March 2016 Consultation document “Reducing variation in credit risk-weighted assets – constraints on the use of internal model approaches” June 2016 Executive Summary This paper has been guided by discussions with IRB banks, regulators and industry bodies and draws on the Credit Benchmark contributed dataset (“CB data”). This data shows the position and shape of Ex Ante PD and LGD distributions from IRB models. Key points: 1. Variation: The range of PD and LGD estimates is proportionately lower for the highest quality obligors. The variation in risk estimates across contributors for the same obligor is lower in 2016 than in 2011. 2. CRA Ratings: IRB banks are conservative with respect to rating agencies, especially in the systemically important Sovereign and Bank obligor credit categories. Banks are required to model a very large number of obligors for which no ratings exist, including around 100,000 corporates. Changes in pooled credit views tend to be smoother than CRA based changes. 3. Market-derived estimates: These are distorted by a time varying risk premium when compared with bank estimates. For this reason, market derived estimates are more volatile than internal model estimates. Banks are required to model a large number of obligors for which no market- derived estimates exist, especially in the SME and fund obligor categories. 4. Floors and Adverse Risk Selection: IRB banks are generally conservative with respect to standardized LGD floors.
    [Show full text]
  • Principles of Finance © Wikibooks
    Principles of Finance © Wikibooks This work is licensed under a Creative Commons-ShareAlike 4.0 International License Original source: Principles of Finance, Wikibooks http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Principles_of_Finance Contents Chapter 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................1 1.1 What is Finance? ................................................................................................................1 1.2 History .................................................................................................................................1 1.2.1 Introduction to Finance ..........................................................................................1 1.2.1.1 Return on Investments ...............................................................................2 1.2.1.2 Debt Finance and Equity Finance - The Two Pillars of Modern Finance ....................................................................................................................................3 1.2.1.2.1 Debt Financing .................................................................................3 1.2.1.2.2 Equity Financing ...............................................................................3 1.2.1.3 Ratio Analysis ...............................................................................................4 1.2.1.3.1 Liquidity Ratios .................................................................................4 Chapter 2 The Basics ......................................................................................................6
    [Show full text]
  • Working Paper Series
    Working Paper Series SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISES WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO EURO ZONE: VIEWED FROM AN ISLAMIC PERSPECTIVE Prof. Dr. Munawar Iqbal Circulation Limited King Abdulaziz University - Islamic Economics Institute ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻚ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ - ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﺳﻼﻣﻲ P.O.Box: 80214 Jeddah 21589 Saudi Arabia -Tel.: 6400789 - Fax: 6403458 ﺹ.ﺏ: ٨٠٢١٤ - ﺟﺪﺓ ٢١٥٨٩- ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ - ﺕ:٦٤٠٠٧٨٩ - ﻑ:٦٤٠٣٤٥٨ The Islamic Economics Institute is an academic institution seeking to contribute effectively to build a global economic thought which would realize welfare and social justice by creat- ing an active research environment, in which the Institute's resources are mustered, to realize a pioneering academic status and create pioneering generations in the field of Islamic Economics. 1396 In (1976) King Abdul Aziz University (KAU) organized the first international conference on Islamic Economics in the world in which a number of Finance Ministers of Muslim Countries participated, (along) with a number of Shar'ah scholars and economists. The Conference came up with number of recommendations, including the establishment of a 1397 research centre in Islamic Economics at KAU. In 1977, the University responded positively to the recommendation by establishing Islamic Economics and Research Center 35 (IERC). Ever since its establishment, the Centre has been consolidating its research status; KAU 1432 built for it a strong Research infrastructure, such as library, a journal and sound academic 14331427 reputation. 14013 20 After 35 years of academic research, the University took an important decision to expand the scope of the Centre's activities to include education and training. In 2011, the Centre was transformed into the Islamic Economics Institute.
    [Show full text]
  • Of the Guide to the Targeted Review of Internal Models (TRIM)
    ECB-PUBLIC February 2017 Information on the current version (February 2017) of the guide to the Targeted Review of Internal Models (TRIM) Dear Members of the Management Body, As announced in the invitation you have received on 6 February 2017 for the conference on the Targeted Review of Internal Models (TRIM) organised by the ECB on 28 February 2017, we are pleased to share with you the current version (February 2017) of the guide to TRIM. This guide sets out the ECB’s view on the appropriate supervisory practices. It further spells out how the ECB intends to interpret the relevant EU law on internal models for credit, market and counterparty credit risks and on general model governance topics. The aim pursued by the guide is to ensure a harmonised interpretation and application of the existing legal framework as well as also ensuring close alignment with upcoming changes in the regulation on internal models. The guide to TRIM will be presented to the institutions in scope for TRIM during the conference on 28 February 2017 and will be made public consecutively via the ECB Banking Superivsion website. Until this publication, this version shall not be shared with any other third party. We also invite you to provide feedback on this version of the guide to TRIM in order to identify where further clarifications or reconsiderations of the defined principles could be helpful. To that extent, you will find attached feedback templates for each chapter, including some instructions. We kindly ask you to send back these feedback templates to [email protected] by Thursday, 13 April 2017.
    [Show full text]
  • Economy – Pillar
    E qual Sus t ainable Dev elopmen t R esear ch R esults – E du ca tional and Pr actical T ools JRP – India EN- F ANCE ET P AIX – Seneg al AL TERNA TIVE–V - UKRAINE • “There was a time when by the "new economics" was meant the Keynesian economics, which was notable as a response to the depression of the 1930s. The new economics that is struggling to grow, today is something very different. It constitutes our response to a new set of problems which were only dimly perceived earlier, but have been steadily grown in urgency over the last quarter of this century. It attempts to put forward new ideas about how to organise the foundations of a sustainable economy at this juncture in history when there are clear signs that the global economy cannot move much further along the accustomed paths of industrial growth without ending up in total disaster. For the true welfare economist the horizons of enquiry are shifting again in a new direction.... The study of wealth and welfare stands at a new crossroads”. Amlan Datta (1997)1 Introduction and Definitions A definition that captures much of modern economics is that of Lionel Robbins in a 1932 essay: "... the science which studies human behaviour as a relationship between ends and scarce means which have alternative uses Economics aims to explain how economies work and how economic agents interact. Economic analysis is applied throughout society, in business, finance and government, but also in crime, education, the family, health, Law, politics, regligion, social institutions, war, and science.
    [Show full text]
  • Point of View
    Financial Services Point of View Ops and IT Investment in the New Decade: Necessity as the Mother of (Re-) Invention Author Dylan Roberts, Partner A common observation about financial services regulation, back in the ’90s and early ’00s, was that regulation didn’t really drive industry practices. As burdensome as Basel II was, many of its requirements (more granular credit rating scales, more quantitative credit models, etc.) were simply restatements of steps that leading banks had taken five or more years previously. And so, it was said, regulation doesn’t shape the business; the business shapes regulation. Times change. While the details of the regulation avalanche triggered by the 2008-2009 credit crisis aren’t yet entirely clear – how the different provisions of Dodd Frank will be interpreted in practice, what the exact requirements of Basel III will include, and so forth – it is increasingly obvious that the impacts will be fundamental, and will drive real, and in some cases unintended and unanticipated, business change. For the banking industry’s profit model, the impacts can be summarized in four buckets: 1. New investment requirements: the need to invest in substantial new data, reporting, and compliance infrastructure 2. Higher operating costs: the need to spend substantially more, year-in, year-out, on regulatory compliance operations 3. Lower revenues: loss of revenue sources (ranging from prop trading on the wholesale side to interchange fees on the retail side) 4. Higher capital levels: substantial increases in capital requirements, on the order of 25% relative to pre-crisis levels, and concomitant reductions in returns on capital These implications (all negative) come on top of economic fundamentals that are already less than rosy for the banking industry.
    [Show full text]
  • 2004 and 2013 Eric W. Price, A.B. Washington, D.C. April 12, 2015
    DOES POST-RECESSIONARY STUDENT LOAN DEBT NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE LIKELIHOOD OF HOMEOWNERSHIP MORE THAN PRE-RECESSIONARY STUDENT LOAN DEBT? EVIDENCE FROM COMPARATIVE, CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSES OF THE SURVEY OF CONSUMER FINANCES DATA FROM 2004 AND 2013 A Thesis submitted to the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences at Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Public Policy By Eric W. Price, A.B. Washington, D.C. April 12, 2015 Copyright 2016 by Eric W. Price All Rights Reserved ii DOES POST-RECESSIONARY STUDENT LOAN DEBT NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE LIKELIHOOD OF HOMEOWNERSHIP MORE THAN PRE-RECESSIONARY STUDENT LOAN DEBT? EVIDENCE FROM COMPARATIVE, CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSES OF THE SURVEY OF CONSUMER FINANCES DATA FROM 2004 AND 2013 Eric W. Price, A.B. Thesis Advisor: Thomas Wei, Ph.D. ABSTRACT More students are taking on loan debt for the purpose of postsecondary educational expenses and the amount of debt that students are taking on continues to increase over time. Until recently, few researchers had investigated the effects of student loan debt on wealth and non-financial asset accumulation, including homeownership. This paper contributes to a growing body of literature by using the 2004 and 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances cross-sectional data to explore and compare the relationship between pre- and post-recessionary outstanding student loan debt and the likelihood of homeownership using a difference-in-differences estimation model controlling for year fixed effects. This estimation strategy is also performed for population subgroups by age, race, and highest level of educational attainment. The paper provides compelling evidence that, while the individual explanatory power associated with student loan debt may be relatively small, student loan debt is statistically significantly and negatively associated with homeownership likelihood, on average, for all student loan debt holders.
    [Show full text]
  • World Bank Document
    t/AA/ 3 g 7 J -•/// Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized iit,5.st Ni :1 2'f;3 - CIA 'I; T 2AI ReportNo. 11253-CIA 't~~I 11hN A . 1 N NI;U1I.L.TEIT ?h lPN IJ i ., iNi :t l' A,:i6 .,-* 7. f'14AN STAFF A.PPRAISALREPORT CHINA Public Disclosure Authorized TIANJIN INDUSTRIALDEVELOPMENT PROJECT FEBRuARY11, 1993 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Industry and Energy Operations Division China and Mongolia Department East Asia and Pacific Regional Office llis document has a restridted distibution and may be used by redcpientsonly In the performance of their offlcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be diselosed without Worid Bank authrizaon CURRENCYEOUIVALENTS (as of December 31, 1992) Currency name = Renminbi (EME) Currency unit - Yuan (Y) - 100 fen Y 1.00 - $0.174 $1.00 a Y 5.75 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ADB - Asian Development Bank BOCOM - Bank of Communications CIB - China Investment Bank CRS - Contract ResponsibilitySystem DEMC - Daming Electric Motor Company ERR - Economic Rate of Return FEAC - Foreign Exchange Adjustment Center PIs - Financial Intermediaries FRR - FinancialRate of Return FTC - Foreign Trading Company GOC - Government of China GVIO - Gross Value of Industrial Output ICE - InternationalCompetitive Bidding ICBC - Industrialand CommercialBank of China LIB - Limited InternationalBidding MOF - Ministry of Finance PBC - People's Bank of China PCBC - People's ConstructionBank of China PFIs - ParticipatingFinancial Intermediaries
    [Show full text]
  • Target 2020 Economy Agricult
    2 INDEX 1. GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT ................. 7 5.2 India’s First Overseas Sovereign Bonds .................... 29 1.1 Over Estimation of GDP ............................................. 7 5.3 Secondary Market for Corporate Loans - Manoharan Committee ............................................................................... 31 1.2 GDP Calculation ......................................................... 8 5.4 Alternative Investment Fund ...................................... 32 2. PUBLIC FINANCE ........................................... 9 5.5 SEBI’s New Rule on Default ...................................... 33 2.1 Concerns in Utilization of Cess ................................... 9 5.6 Credit Guarantee Fund .............................................. 34 2.2 Corporate Tax Rate Cut ............................................ 10 5.7 Sovereign Gold Bonds scheme ................................... 34 2.3 Tax Buoyancy and Tax Devolution ............................ 11 5.8 Mutual Funds to NBFCs ............................................ 35 2.4 Tax Information Exchange Agreement ...................... 12 5.9 Credit Rating Agency ................................................. 35 2.5 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) .................. 12 5.10 New Rules for Financial Firms .................................. 36 2.6 Buyback tax ............................................................... 12 5.11 Bharat Bond Exchange Traded Fund ........................ 36 2.7 15th Finance Commission .........................................
    [Show full text]
  • Riverrock Mortgage Investment Corporation - June 2018
    RiverRock Mortgage Investment Corporation - June 2018 Mortgage Investment Corporation (MIC) – FAQ 1. What is the size of the MIC market? The Canadian residential mortgage market surpassed $1.6 trillion dollars in 2016. It has been growing at an annual growth rate of 7% compounded every year for the last 10 years. The Banks and Trust Companies focus on 80% of the market. Due to tighter restrictions due to the recent B20 regulation the Banks and Trust Companies have restricted their lending practices. This has created a larger opportunity for MICs. 2. How is the MIC market regulated? In the province of Ontario, the Financial Services Commission of Ontario (FSCO) licenses and regulates all mortgage brokers, agents, administrators and MICs. 3. What risks are associated with investing in a MIC? All property investments are subject to elements of risk. Property value is affected by general economic conditions, local real estate markets, the attractiveness of the property to tenants, competition from other available properties and other factors. While independent appraisals are required before, MICs may make any mortgage investment, the appraised values provided therein, even where reported on an “as in” basis, are not necessarily always reflective of the market value of the underlying property, which may fluctuate. The MIC’s income and funds available for distribution to security holders would be adversely affected if a significant number of borrowers were unable to pay their obligations. Upon default by a borrower, MICs may experience delays in enforcing its’ rights as lender and could incur costs in protecting its investment. Additional risk considerations include: Lender inexperience through credit cycles Lender does not have any workout experience The province in which the MIC invests is an important consideration with respect to the real estate market and the ability to enforce lender rights Size of the mortgage Term of the mortgage Loan-to-value Proportion of the MICs assets in first vs.
    [Show full text]
  • Leverage Ratio: Notes for IAS Exam
    Leverage Ratio: Notes for IAS Exam A leverage ratio is one of several financial measurements that glances at how much capital comes in the form of debt (loans), or weighs the capacity of a company to meet its financial obligations. How is Leverage Ratio used in Businesses? Too much debt can be dangerous for a company and its investors. However, if a company's operations can generate a higher rate of return than the interest rate on its loans, then the debt may help to fuel growth. Uncontrolled debt levels can lead to credit downgrades or worse. On the other hand, too few debts can also raise questions. A reluctance or inability to borrow may be a sign that operating margins are tight. There are several different ratios that may be categorized as a leverage ratio, but the main factors considered are debt, equity, assets, and interest expenses. A leverage ratio may also be used to measure a company's mix of operating expenses to get an idea of how changes in output will affect operating income. Fixed and variable costs are the two types of operating costs; depending on the company and the industry, the mix will differ. Finally, the consumer leverage ratio refers to the level of consumer debt compared to disposable income and is used in economic analysis and by policymakers. What are the types of Leverage Ratio? There are several different leverage ratios that may be considered by market analysts, investors, or lenders. Some accounts that are considered to have significant comparability to debt are total assets, total equity, operating expenses, and incomes.
    [Show full text]