US Economic Autumn Outlook | August 31, 2015 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH August 31, 2015 MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC Ellen Zentner US Economic Autumn Outlook
[email protected] +1 212 296-4882 Ted Wieseman Sobering Up On Supply Side
[email protected] +1 212 761-3407 Paula Campbell Roberts
[email protected] +1 212 761-3043 Domestic momentum should be enough to lead the Fed to deliver a Robert Rosener December rate hike as downside risks to inflation ease. Thereafter,
[email protected] +1 212 296-5614 depressed productivity and lower potential growth take center stage. Forecast Highlights: More muted growth outlook—productivity picks up only moderately; potential GDP growth and NAIRU are lower. Slower path for policy tightening—we have removed 50bps of tightening in 2016 via one less rate hike and delayed balance sheet action. Job growth slows sharply in 2017—we expect 50k average monthly job growth by the end of 2017 on a gradual rise in productivity and renewed downtrend in participation, just enough to keep the unemployment rate steady. Outlook for inflation little changed—headline inflation remains largely oil-driven. For core inflation, housing-led upside in core services prices is offset by dollar appreciation and weakness in more globally-driven core goods prices. Downward revision to growth in 2015/16—2015 GDP revised lower to 2.4%Y vs 2.5% previously, 2016 comes down by 0.8pp to 1.9%Y and we initiate 2017 at 1.8%Y. A US recession enters the bear case—in our bear case we explore the possibility of a US recession within the next 12 months.