LOOKING AHEAD: CHARTING NEW PATHS FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN REPORT SCIENTIFIC COORDINATION Valeria Talbot ISPI Stefano M. Torelli ISPI, ECFR AUTHORS Dlawer Ala’Aldeen MERI, Ziad A. Akl AL-AHRAM CENTER FOR POLITICAL AND STRATEGIC STUDIES, Francesco Bandarin UNESCO, Emna Ben Arab ITES AND UNIVERSITY OF SFAX, Rim Berahab OCP POLICY CENTER, Filippo Biondi BRUEGEL, Center for Civil Society and Democracy, Eugenio Dacrema ISPI, Galip Dalay AL SHARQ FORUM, Maria Demertzis BRUEGEL, Georges Fahmi EUI, Dina Fakoussa DGAP, Maria Fantappie ICG, Filippo Fasulo ISPI AND CESIF, Silvia Gison SAVE THE CHILDREN, Mohanad Hage Ali CARNEGIE MIDDLE EAST CENTER, Omar Kadkoy TEPAV, Andrey Kortunov RIAC, David Mariano SAVE THE CHILDREN, Karim Mezran ATLANTIC COUNCIL, Francesca Paci LA STAMPA, Noemi Pazienti SAVE THE CHILDREN, Giuseppe Provenzano UFM, Ali Rostom IFRI, Dorothée Schmid IFRI, Yousra Semmache SAVE THE CHILDREN, Musa Shteiwi CSS, Claire Spencer CHATHAM HOUSE, Simone Tagliapietra BRUEGEL AND FEEM, Valeria Talbot ISPI, Matia Toaldo ECFR, Stefano M. Torelli ISPI AND ECFR, Arturo Varvelli ISPI, Lorenzo Vidino ISPI AND GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY, Mateo Villa ISPI, Maha Yahya CARNEGIE MIDDLE EAST CENTER EDITORIAL ASSISTANT Chiara Anna Cascino ISPI GRAPHICS AND LAYOUT Giovanni Collot, Nicolas Lozito, Federico Petroni IMERICA SCIENTIFIC PARTNERS Published on the occasion of the third edition of Rome MED - Mediterranean dialogues (30 November - 2 December 2017), promoted by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Afairs and International Cooperation and ISPI 5 PREFACE ver the last three years, Rome MED – Mediterranean Dialo- gues has served as a hub for high-level initiatives and meetin- gs among policy-makers and experts from both the northern andO southern shores of the Mediterranean. The purpose is to look beyond current turmoil, rivalries and conflicts to draf a positive agenda for the Mediterranean. This new edition of the MED Report is intended as a tool to support debate in the context of Rome MED. In particular, the volume collects insights, analyses and policy recommendations from diferent perspecti- ves and countries, with a view to shedding light on current dynamics and future developments in the Mediterranean region at the political, security and socio-economic level. In this spirit, the first part of the Report highlights opportunities to be seized and provides policy options to build a beter future for the region. The second part of the Report focuses on today’s major regional challen- ges and is structured along the four main pillars of Rome MED: shared security, shared prosperity, migration, and civil society & culture. This volume is the result of the fruitful cooperation among all MED Scientific Partners. It benefited from the renewed partnership of Bruegel, the Royal Institute of International Afairs (Chatham House), the Deut- sche Gesellschaf für Auswärtige Politik (DGAP), the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR), the European University Institute (EUI), the In- stitut Français des Relations Internationales (IFRI), and the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP) of the University of Pennsylvania. In addition, this year the scientific partnership was enlarged to include seven institutes from the southern shore of the Mediterranean: Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies; Al Sharq Forum; Carnegie Mid- dle East Center; Institut Tunisien des Etudes Stratégiques (ITES); Jordan Center for Strategic Studies (CSS); OCP Policy Center; Middle East Rese- arch Institute (MERI). This expanded collaboration has allowed to further enrich the content of the volume and provide new views and ideas. I sincerely wish to thank all the scholars and experts who contributed to this Report. Their constant support and eforts were crucial to make it possible. Paolo Magri ISPI Executive Vice President and Director TABLE OF CONTENTS PART 1 POSITIVE TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES The shrinking Caliphate 11 The Islamic State’s territorial losses in Iraq 11 Dlawer Ala’Aldeen, MERI Where the Islamic State’s losses in Syria might lead 15 Maha Yahya and Mohanad Hage Ali, Carnegie Middle East Center Political transition in Tunisia despite everything 19 Dina Fakoussa, DGAP The rise of alternative young democratic voices from within religious 23 communities Georges Fahmi, EUI New opportunities for growth: global China reaches the Middle East 27 Filippo Fasulo, ISPI and CeSIF The Mediterranean in the digital era: youth-led technological advance 33 Claire Spencer, Chatham House Going green: prospects for renewable energy in the MENA region 37 Rim Berahab, OCP Policy Center References 42 PART 2 CHALLENGES SHARED SECURITY Radicalisation and counter-terrorism in the era of the Islamic State’s 48 metamorphosis Lorenzo Vidino, ISPI and George Washington University Facing new security challenges in the south of the Mediterranean 52 Ziad A. Akl, Al-Ahram Center for Political & Strategic Studies The path towards radicalisation: a Tunisian perspective 55 Emna Ben Arab, ITES and University of Sfax Through the strains: a viable roadmap for Libya? 58 Arturo Varvelli, ISPI The Gulf monarchies: disunited we stand 62 Valeria Talbot, ISPI The Kurdish conundrum 66 Stefano M. Torelli, ISPI and ECFR Afer the referendum: what’s next for the Iraqi Kurdistan? 70 Maria Fantappie, ICG A The Middle East according to Trump 74 Karim Mezran, Atlantic Council Syria: testing Russia’s long-term strategy in the Middle East 78 Andrey Kortunov, RIAC SHARED PROSPERITY Promoting intra-regional trade in the southern Mediterranean 84 Filippo Biondi and Maria Demertzis, Bruegel Iran’s economic reintegration: constraints and prospects 88 Dorothée Schmid and Ali Rostom, IFRI A new “vision” for diversification in Saudi Arabia 92 Eugenio Dacrema, ISPI Energy as a bridge in the eastern Mediterranean? 96 Simone Tagliapietra, Bruegel and FEEM The blue economy: a driver of shared prosperity 100 Giuseppe Provenzano, Union for the Mediterranean MIGRATION A migration policy for the EU: solidarity through partnerships 106 Mateo Villa, ISPI Managing flows through the central Mediterranean 110 Matia Toaldo, ECFR Syrian refugees between hospitality and integration 114 Maha Yahya, Carnegie Middle East Center From humanitarian assistance to empowerment in Jordan 118 Musa Shteiwi, CSS, University of Jordan Looking into the Turkish experience 121 Galip Dalay, Al Sharq Forum, and Omar Kadkoy, TEPAV CIVIL SOCIETY, CULTURE AND MEDIA Preventing a lost generation of young Syrians 126 Silvia Gison, David Mariano, Noemi Pazienti, Yousra Semmache, Save the Children Policies for the educational sector in Syria 130 CCSD Protecting cultural heritage in conflicts areas 132 Francesco Bandarin, UNESCO Channelling change: social media and its political impact 136 Francesca Paci, La Stampa References 140 PART POSITIVE TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES PHOTO: MEDITERRANEAN CURRENT FLOWS // NASA 1 1 11 The shrinking Caliphate The Islamic State’s 1 territorial losses in Iraq Dlawer Ala’Aldeen President, MERI The sudden fall of Mosul to the Islamic fore IS’ emergence, the state-building and State (IS) in June 2014 epitomised the nega- nation-building processes were secondary tive trend since the regime change of 2003. concerns, making the emergence of IS and It symbolised the failure of the ruling elite its occupation of Iraq’s Sunni Arab constit- to capitalise on the unprecedented interna- uency no more than consequences. tional support and ample opportunities to build a functioning, democratic, and pros- A POTENTIAL TURNING POINT perous state. The 2014 elections and government Conversely, the liberation of Mosul in change in Baghdad proved to be a major July 2017 has become the symbol of a new turning point for Iraq. Al-Maliki was re- spirit and positive trend in Iraq, beginning placed by Haidar al-Abadi who formed an in late 2015 when IS was contained through inclusive coalition government. Al-Abadi internal unity and international support. rapidly gained the support of local, region- Surviving the shock of IS, Iraq went on to al, and global actors particularly in the fight liberate most of the occupied territories. IS against IS. He reached out to the Sunni Ar- is now finally on the verge of total military abs, made eforts to mend fences with the defeat. However, sustaining this positive Kurds and promised radical reform in gov- new trend and winning the ultimate war erning and administration. on terror brings major challenges that will However, by 2014 Iraq was already require shared visions and collective eforts too weak for a rapid reversal of fortunes. to overcome. Al-Abadi did not have full backing of his own party or parliamentary faction, and STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES his government was severely undermined Afer the regime change, the Iraqi state by Shia-Shia rivalries. He failed to imple- lost its monopoly on violence. The Iraqi ment the promised reforms or to reverse army was initially dissolved, then re-built al-Maliki’s policies against the Sunni Ar- de novo in haste and with no clear doc- abs and the Kurds. That said, Aa-Abadi’s trine. Meanwhile, several paramilitary government is now credited, by the Shias groups became operational across Iraq, and the international community, with many taking active roles in the sectarian saving Iraq’s unity by winning the military war of 2005–6 between Shiite and Sunni war against IS and regaining military con- Arabs, and in ongoing insurgencies against trol over the disputed territories which had the state. Furthermore, eight years of sec- come under the control of Kurdistan Re- -80% tarian majority rule of Prime Minister Nou- gional Government (KRG). the territorial losses ri al-Maliki (2006–14) brought Iraq to its Al-Abadi’s success, on the other hand, is of IS in Iraq and knees and expedited the growing inter- and marred by two major blows to Iraq’s state Syria between 2014 intra-community divisions. Thus, even be- integrity. The first was the expansion and and 2017 12 POSITIVE TRENDS legitimisation of the pro-Iranian Shiite the United Nations, there were over three paramilitaries (Popular Mobilisation Forc- million displaced persons in Iraq before es, PMFs) which became permanent fix- the liberation of Nineveh, the majority of tures of Iraq’s security system.