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Hydropower Development on the Social, Environmental, and Economic Conditions of the Lower Mekong River Basin (Unedited Version)

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Hydropower Development on the Social, Environmental, and Economic Conditions of the Lower Mekong River Basin (Unedited Version) MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION THE COUNCIL STUDY The Study on the Sustainable Management and Development of the Mekong River Basin, including Impacts of Mainstream Hydropower Projects Thematic Report on the Positive and Negative Impacts of Hydropower Development on the Social, Environmental, and Economic Conditions of the Lower Mekong River Basin (Unedited Version) Prepared by: Hydropower Thematic Team and Multi-consult 29 December 2017 Disclaimer: These Council Study reports are considered final drafts prepared by the technical experts and specialists of the Mekong River Commission, through a process of consultation with representatives of member countries. The contents or findings of the reports are not necessarily the views of the MRC member countries but will serve as knowledge base and reference in the work of the MRC and its member countries in their ongoing technical and policy dialogues in ensuring the sustainable development of the Mekong river basin. The MRC is funded by contribution from its member countries and development partners of Australia, Belgium, European Union, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United States and the World Bank Produced by MRC Council Study – Hydropower Thematic Team, Multiconsult Produced for MRC Member Countries Project Team David A. Wright, Hydropower and Water Resources Expert Jens Johan Laugen, Environmental and Social Specialist Leif B.Lillehammer, Water Resources Management Specialist Document History Document Date Authors Status Comment Final 29/12/2017 David A. Wright Final Report Submitted Jens Johan Laugen Leif B. Lillehammer Draft 22/11/2017 David A. Wright Final Report Submitted Jens Johan Laugen Leif B. Lillehammer Draft 08/11/2017 David A. Wright Draft Final Report Submitted Jens Johan Laugen Leif B. Lillehammer Draft 30/10/2017 David A. Wright Draft Final Report Submitted Jens Johan Laugen Leif B. Lillehammer Draft 15/06/2017 David A. Wright Draft Final Report Submitted Jens Johan Laugen Leif B. Lillehammer Draft 15/05/2017 Jens Johan Laugen Draft Final Report Submitted Leif B. Lillehammer David A. Wright Draft 30/03/2017 Jan Høiseth Draft Final Report Submitted Bjørn Stenseth Jens Johan Laugen Leif B. Lillehammer Piseth Chea Abbreviations and Acronyms ALU Agric/Landuse Change BDP Basin Development Plan CA Concession Agreement COD Commercial Operation Date CS Council Study DIW Domestic and Industrial Water Use DNF Data Not Found FPI Flood protection infrastructure FS Feasibility Study FSL Full Supply Level GWh one million kWh HPP Hydropower IQQM Model IRR Irrigation ISIS Model ISH Initiative for Sustainable Hydropower IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management kW kilowatt = one thousand Watt kWh kilowatt hour LMB Lower Mekong Basin m3/s cubic metres per second mamsl metres above mean sea level mcm million cubic metres MOL Minimum Operating Water Level MOU Memorandum of Understanding MS Mekong Main Stream MW megawatt = one thousand kW NAV Navigation. OWL Operating Water Level PDA Project Development Agreement PDG Preliminary Design Guidlines PFS Pre-Feasibility Study ROW Right Of Way UMB Upper Mekong Basin Thematic Report – Hydropower Devlopment Final Report i Contents 1 Summary ................................................................................................................................ 6 1.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................ 6 1.2 Main Results ........................................................................................................................... 6 1.3 Council Study Key Messages – Hydropower Thematic ......................................................... 11 2 Background and Scope of the Study ..................................................................................... 16 2.1 General ................................................................................................................................. 16 2.2 Objectives of the Council Study ............................................................................................ 16 3 Hydropower Developments in the Mekong River Basin ....................................................... 17 3.1 Mainstream Hydropower Projects on the Upper Mekong ................................................... 17 3.2 Hydropower Projects on the Lower Mekong and Tributaries ............................................... 19 4. Hydropower Modelling ........................................................................................................ 27 4.1 Hydropower data in year 2007 for setting up IQQM Baseline model ................................... 27 4.2 Council Study Scenarios and Model Inputs and Gaps ........................................................... 28 4.3 Gap-filling for Hydropower Development Data and Scenario Modelling ............................. 34 4.4 Mitigation Options ............................................................................................................... 36 4.5 Model Results and Outputs .................................................................................................. 40 5 Assessment of General Impacts of Hydropower Development on Mekong ......................... 58 5.1 Impact Assessment - Upper Mekong Basin .......................................................................... 58 5.2 Impact Assessment - Lower Mekong Basin .......................................................................... 59 5.3 Predictions of change for impounded reaches under main development scenarios ............ 60 5.4 Effect of Hydropower Development on Hydrology and Peaking Flows ................................ 61 5.5 Effect of Hydropower Development on Erosion and the Availability of Habitats ................. 62 5.6 Effect of Hydropower Development on Riverine and Wetland Vegetation .......................... 62 5.7 Effect of Hydropower Development on Aquatic Macroinvertebrates .................................. 63 5.8 Effect of Hydropower Development on Fish and Fisheries ................................................... 63 5.9 Effect of Hydropower Development on Herpetofauna ........................................................ 64 5.10 Effect of Hydropower Development on Birds and Mammals ............................................... 64 5.11 Effect of Hydropower Development on Sediments and Water Quality ................................ 65 5.12 Effect of Climate Change ...................................................................................................... 66 6.0 Main Challenges and Recommendations ............................................................................. 67 6.1 Fish Migration....................................................................................................................... 67 6.2 Sediment .............................................................................................................................. 67 6.3 Some Potential Engineering Solutions from the ISH0306 Study ........................................... 68 Thematic Report – Hydropower Devlopment Final Report ii ANNEXES Annex 1: Hydropower projects in Lower Mekong Basin-Operation Data Annex 2: Hydropower projects in Lower Mekong Basin-Characteristic Data Annex 3: Further Information on Hydropower Projects on the Upper Mekong Mainstream Annex 4: Gap-filling for Hydropower Development Data and Scenario Modelling Annex 5: Model Outputs Thematic Report – Hydropower Devlopment Final Report iii List of Tables Table 3.1 Planned or constructed hydropower schemes on Lancang River, China and Tibet Autonomous Region. Table 3.2 Mainstream Hydropower Schemes. Table 3.3 Length of reservoirs and river reaches in the Lao Cascade. Table 3.4 Key numbers for the dams in the Lao Cascade. Table 3.5 Key numbers of the mainstream dams downstream of the Lao Cascade. Table 3.6 Commissioned Hydropower Projects in LMB by the End of 2015. Table 4.1: Existing and planned Hydropower dam projects in Lower Mekong Basin status year 2008 Table 4.2 Basin-wide development scenarios Table 4.3 Parameters for the main development scenarios Table 4.4 Sub-scenarios to test the effects of water resources development in the hydropower sector. Table 4.5 Hydropower Development Sub-Scenarios Table 4.6 Main characteristics for Mainstream Mekong Dams Table 4.7 The number of tributary HPPs included in 2007 Baseline, Scenarios 2020 and 2040 Table 4.8 Mainstream HPPs included in each main development scenario Table 4.9 Mitigation measures imposed on mainstream dams (in the H3 sub-scenario). Table 4.10 Summary of sediment mitigation options and strategy for the mainstream dams. Table 4.11 Relative changes in the value (US$) of M1, M2, M3 and M3CC corridor fish production Table 4-12 Relative changes in the value (US$) of M1, M2, M3 and M3CC corridor rice production Figure 4.8 Sector incomes by zone across the M3 and the H1a, H1b and H3 hydropower sub scenarios (year 24) Table 4-13 Impacts on Net Present Value (NPV) of the hydropower sector for the three main scenarios Table 4-14 Cross-sector comparison for Net Present Value (NPV) of hydropower, fisheries, agriculture, and Table 4-14 Net present value of the hydropower sector in billion US$ for sub-scenarios H1a and H1b Table 4-14 Economic benefit of fisheries sector under the 13 sub-scenarios as NPV for the 24-year period in B$ Table 4-15 Economic benefit changes in % of fisheries sector income compared to M3CC Table 4-17 GDP range projections
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