THE VISION
CONNECTED & FLOWING
A RENEWABLE FUTURE FOR RIVERS, CLIMATE AND PEOPLE
CONNECTED AND FLOWING 117 CHAPTER 2 THE VISION
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
1. INTRODUCTION 10
2. THE VISION 14 Lead author IUCN: James Dalton, Reviewers Jeff Opperman, WWF Rebecca Welling The following people 3. THE RENEWABLE REVOLUTION 28 served as reviewers (of this report Primary co-authors University of California, or earlier versions of it) and helped AND THE CHANGING ROLE FOR Joerg Hartmann (independent Berkeley: Daniel Kammen, strengthen the report. The content HYDROPOWER consultant), Mark Lambrides Isa Farrall and positions expressed in this (TNC), and Juan Pablo Carvallo report, however, are those of the (University of California, Stanford University and the 4. ACHIEVING LOW CARBON, 38 authors and do not necessarily Berkeley) Natural Capital Project: reflect the perspectives of LOW IMACT GRIDS Rafael Schmitt Spatial Analysis those who provided input. Emily Chapin, TNC University of Manchester: 56 Bruce Aylward (AMP Insights), 5. GLOBAL BENEFITS FOR RIVERS Julien Harou Additional Contributors Hannah Baleta (independent OF LOW-COST, LOW CARBON AND WWF: Chris Weber, Marc University of California, consultant), David Harrison LOW-IMPACT POWER SYSTEMS Goichot, Jill Hepp, Michele Los Angeles: Alex Wang (independent consultant), Thieme, Francesca Antonelli, Universität Tübingen: Jessica Penrod (Natel), 64 Jean-Philippe Denruyter, Stuart 6. MAKING SUSTAINABLE GRIDS Christiane Zarfl Jamie Skinner (IIED) Orr, Ying Qiu, Rafael Senga, A REALITY Please cite as: and Shannon Wang Editor Opperman, J., J. Hartmann, M. The Nature Conservancy: Richard Lee, WWF Lambrides, J.P. Carvallo, E. Chapin, 7. FISH AND GRIDS: SUSTAINABLE 76 Amy Newsock, Sharon Report design S. Baruch-Mordo, B. Eyler, M. POWER FOR THE MEKONG REGION Baruch-Mordo, Joe Kiesecker, Lou Clements Goichot, J. Harou, J. Hepp, D. Jorge Gastelumendi, Jonathan Kammen, J. Kiesecker, A. Newsock, 8. CONCLUSIONS 96 Higgins, Brooke Atwell and Figure design R. Schmitt, M. Thieme, A. Wang, Justus Raepple Glyn Williams and C. Weber, 2019. Connected 102 The Stimson Center: Copy Editor and flowing: a renewable future for ANNEX Brian Eyler, Courtney Andrew Myers rivers, climate and people. WWF Weatherby and The Nature Conservancy, Washington, DC
ISBN:118 CONNECTED 978-2-940529-94-0 AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 1 © Carlos Goulart / TNC Photo Contest 2018 THE VISION
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Due to the renewable revolution, power systems can now be low carbon, low cost, and low impact on rivers, the environment and people
The world faces multiple critical and intertwined storage and low-impact hydropower. For the 2. Low cost. Power systems that are low carbon In practice, we believe that electricity systems challenges: expanding electricity generation to meet first time, there are viable renewable alternatives and low impact must also meet countries’ power that meet these principles will increasingly be the needs of growing economies and to supply power to the high-impact hydropower dams that are demands with electricity that is reliable and those that avoid the significant tradeoffs associated to the more than one billion people who currently currently proposed on many of the world’s remaining affordable. Furthermore, social equity demands with high-impact hydropower projects. However, lack access while reducing greenhouse gas emissions free-flowing rivers – a development path that could that energy investments ensure access to the more avoiding those tradeoffs and impacts does not to nearly zero by 2050 – all while maintaining the trigger a range of negative impacts, including than one billion people that still lack access to equate to an end to hydropower development, but integrity of our world’s ecosystems, including displacement of communities, and the loss of reliable electricity. In fact, the short construction to a significant shift in its role and competitive niche. conserving the planet’s remaining free-flowing rivers. productive freshwater fisheries and much of the times, versatility, and low costs of new renewables Hydropower projects provide a range of services sediment needed to keep economically crucial allow countries to accelerate access to electricity. that can help balance power systems and facilitate Today, the world has a great opportunity to solve deltas above the rising seas. the integration of a higher share of wind and solar 3. Low impact. Nearly all options for producing these challenges, made possible by the renewable generation — both through the reoperation of This report describes how the world can tackle these energy have some negative impacts on revolution — featuring rapidly falling costs for wind existing hydropower and through strategically intertwined challenges and support global efforts to communities and the environment. But, options and solar generation and storage technologies, designed new projects, including off-channel achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for low-impact systems are becoming increasingly and significant advancements in energy efficiency, pumped storage, that avoid the significant and the targets under the Paris Agreement, by moving feasible and various best practices can be applied demand side management, and grid management. tradeoffs associated with past development. rapidly toward electricity systems that are: to further reduce impacts, particularly on the In addition, great progress has been made on These carefully planned projects will provide lower world’s remaining free flowing rivers. the accessibility of tools that allow governments risk and higher value to investors and developers, 1. Low carbon. The imperative to decarbonize to strategically plan power systems so that the while delivering greater overall values to countries energy systems, and economies in general, Achieving this vision will not happen by pre-judging expansion and operation of projects can maximize and communities. becomes increasingly clear with each passing what technologies and mixes of energy generation synergies and minimize negative impacts. should be deployed. Decisions about future electricity year. A stable climate – and prosperous societies The urgent need to expand access to energy systems should follow a process to identify options We can now envision a future in which electricity and healthy ecosystems – requires that electricity while decarbonizing power systems systems are accessible, affordable and powering systems move rapidly to being low carbon and that are consistent with the principles above. Any mix of sources that can meet those principles (low cost, To avoid exceeding a global temperature rise above economies with a more sustainable mix of renewable efficient and that some sectors, such as heating low carbon and low impact) will work for people, 1.5ºC, the IPCC reports that the world will need to energy technologies — including solar, wind, and transportation, be electrified. nature and the climate. cut global CO2 emissions by approximately 40-50%
2 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 3 © Billy Huynh / TNC Photo Contest 2018 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Recent growth in renewables by type by 2030 and economies will need to become 500 nearly carbon free by 2050. Since electricity KEY POINTS ■ Hydropower ■ Wind ■ Solar generation is a leading source of GHG emissions, • The costs of wind, solar, and battery decarbonization of power systems is critical to 400 storage have dropped dramatically in achieve the necessary emissions reductions, especially as electricity generation must increase recent years – and are continuing to fall. 300 Renewable sources represented two-thirds to provide power to the more than one billion ES1. Recent of new global power generation capacity people around the world who still lack access. growth in This will require a rapid transition away from fossil 200 in 2018, led by wind and solar. Capacity (GW) added renewables fuels (coal, natural gas and oil) to low-carbon by type • The global technical potential of utility- renewables such as wind, solar, geothermal and scale, low-impact wind and solar is 17 100 hydropower. While hydropower has been the Global renewable times the renewable energy targets that power capacity dominant source of renewable generation so far, additions, 2004-2023 countries have committed to under the 2 projections of how the world can meet future 0 (from IEA 2017). Paris Agreement, and well distributed. electricity demand while also achieving climate 2004–2008 2009–2013 2014-2018 2019–2023 This should allow almost all countries goals include a massive increase in the proportion to achieve power systems that are low of wind and solar, with these sources expected carbon, low cost, and low impact on social to attain a share of generation comparable to, or and environmental resources. exceeding, that of hydropower. • Lowering the total number of new The renewable revolution can increase renewable energy, described in case studies hydropower dams because of greater The renewable revolution is rapidly conservation of free-flowing rivers by below. But ensuring that this substitution leads to investment in wind and solar can changing the landscape of power systems delivering low cost, low carbon, low electricity systems that are as low impact as possible reduce negative impacts on rivers and impact grids requires the widespread availability of wind and avoid fragmenting tens to hundreds of The costs for a range of renewable energy solar power in areas with low impacts on social Projections vary widely of how much hydropower thousands of kilometers of free-flowing sources have dropped dramatically in the past and environmental resources. The global technical will be developed to meet the 2050 power demand rivers globally, depending on how decade. Costs for solar and wind are now potential of low-impact utility-scale wind and solar development unfolds within river basins. approaching US$0.05/kWh – comparable to the and achieve climate objectives. For example, from (on converted lands such as agriculture, degraded low end of fossil fuel cost range and the average a current capacity baseline of approximately 1,200 land, and rooftops) is 17 times the renewable • Planning tools that integrate capacity 1 GW, IPCC scenarios that limit global temperatures to costs of hydropower. And costs are projected energy targets that countries have committed to expansion models with models to guide to decline even further. below a rise of 1.5ºC have median 2050 projection under the Paris Agreement, and well distributed low-impact siting of new renewables can for global hydropower of 1,820 GW – a level that 5 Because of these rapid changes in relative (Figure ES3) . This should allow almost all countries to help decision makers design systems that would result in an additional 190,000 kilometers of costs in recent years, the growth of power achieve power systems that are low carbon, low cost, are low carbon, low cost and low impact. river channel being impacted by fragmentation, generation is now driven by investments in new and low impact. • T he renewable energy revolution does not with more than 70% of the impact occurring in solar and wind capacity (Figure ES1). Capacity signal an end to hydropower development, river basins with the greatest fish harvest and the Case studies of low carbon, low cost and low additions of hydropower have been declining but a significant shift in its role. Certain highest richness of fish species3. impact grids since 2013, due not only to the falling costs of types of hydropower are becoming competing technologies, but also to a broader However, the trends in cost and levels of investment A number of recent studies have demonstrated the less competitive and the rise of reliable set of challenges, including high-profile for hydropower compared to other renewable economic and technical feasibility of grids that are alternatives should diminish the need for low carbon with expansion dominated by renewables. cancellations, growing hydrological risks, cost technologies, and the potential to retrofit existing high-impact dams. However, low-impact We further explored the potential of low cost, low and schedule over-runs, technical challenges, dams and re-operate cascades — along with lower hydropower plants, which provide storage carbon grids to be low impact on rivers by integrating and increasing social resistance. projections for hydropower in 2050 such as that of capabilities and flexibility, could become Teske (1,523 GW)4 — suggest that future hydropower capacity expansion models for two countries, Chile an important component of the world’s Certain types of hydropower are becoming less development may be lower. A lower level of and Uganda, with basic landscape modeling of the transition to deploying considerably more competitive, with the rise of reliable alternatives development could reduce impacts by 65,000 km. environmental values of rivers. intermittent renewable energies. diminishing the need for high-impact dams. With strategic system planning, impacts could be • In Uganda, a scenario that avoided future However, low-impact hydropower plants that • By capitalizing on economic and financial reduced a further 100,000 km - in total, a nearly 90% hydropower dams within national parks had no provide storage capabilities and flexibility have trends as well as improved technologies, reduction in impact on river fragmentation (Figure impacts on power system costs compared to the a strong role to play in backing up variable we can secure a brighter future for people ES2) – securing the diverse benefits that healthy reference, or business as usual (BAU), scenario; sources, such as solar and wind, and providing and nature with power systems that are rivers provide to people and nature. solar PV and storage would replace the two the ancillary services that contribute to grid low carbon, low cost and low impact on hydropower plants within a national park that are stability. Low impact hydropower could still be an The ability to substitute wind and solar for a portion rivers and other ecosystems. selected in the reference scenario. important component of the world’s transition to of hydropower development hinges on the improving deploying considerably more intermittent competitiveness of those technologies and the • In Chile, the reference (BAU) scenario included renewable energies. ability of grids to incorporate high levels of variable both coal and a significant expansion of
4 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
GlobalES2. Hydropower future expansion hydro and impact fragmentation on rivers ES3. Global map of potential hydropower and potential generation from low-impact wind and solar 200,000 Global future hydro and fragmentation 180,000 U 200,000 A 160,000 B m 180,000Global future hydro and fragmentationo fr t ac 160,000140,000 p 200,000 Im 140,000 120,000 180,000 Minimum impact 120,000 Range of 160,000 corresponds potential to IEA 2014 100,000100,000 140,000 improvement 80,00080,000 through 120,000 planning
fragmentation (km) 60,000 Range of 100,000 impact fragmentation (km) 60,000 40,000 corresponds 80,000 to Teske Minimum 20,00040,000 et al 2018 possible fragmentation (km) Additional river channels impacted by 60,000 impact 0 40,000 20,0001450 1550 1650 1750 1850 Figure ES3. The ratio of Additional river channels impacted by 20,000 potential generation from Additional river channels impacted by 0 Level of hydropower development in 2050 Global Capacity (GW) 0 low-impact wind and solar ■ Range1450 of potential1450 improvement1550 through1550 system planning1650 1650 ■ Minimum1750 kilometers impacted17501850 1850 to generation from potential hydropower dams7. LevelLevel of of hydropower hydropower development development in 2050 Global in 2050 Capacity Global (GW) Capacity (GW) Hydropower dams Under construction Potential ■ Range of potential improvement through system planning ■ Minimum kilometers impacted ■ ■ Ratio of potential generation from low-impact Range of potential improvement through system planning Minimum kilometers impacted wind and solar to generation from proposed hydropower dams
No data on potential 10.1–100.0 hydropower Figure ES2. Potential improved outcomes for global rivers through 100.1–1000.0 impacts and conflicts, contributing to conservation < 1 > 1000 substitution of other technologies for hydropower (moving from 1.1–10.0 right to left) and through system planning to optimize between and facilitating faster permitting and development. generation and environmental performance within river basins (blue shaded area within any given level of development). The top of the combined bar represents the level of impact from business-as-usual What the world needs to do to achieve the development of hydropower dams for a given total level of global low carbon, low cost and low impact vision BOX ES-1 hydropower capacity by 2050 and the top of the red bar represents the minimum impact possible at that level of development i (From Accelerating the renewables transition requires 6 Opperman et al. 2015 based on dam database from Zarfl et al. 2015) . the removal of barriers, including policy and SUSTAINABLE POWER SYSTEMS FOR regulatory reforms, redirecting financial flows THE MEKONG RIVER BASIN towards new renewables, and technological innovation. There are successful examples for all The Mekong River supports the world’s business-as-usual projections. The integration hydropower. Low carbon scenarios that also of these that can be emulated by other countries. most productive freshwater fishery and of capacity expansion models with models to avoided developing new dams on Chile’s Many governments need to modernize their delivers sediments that maintain the physical guide low-impact hydropower siting provided remaining free-flowing rivers had costs that were energy-sector policies to take full advantage of the integrity and productive ecosystems of the strong evidence that the Mekong region can only 1.5–2% higher than the reference scenario, renewable revolution, for example by committing Mekong Delta, a crucial part of Vietnam’s develop low carbon, low cost power systems that with a carbon intensity that was one-quarter that to renewable energy targets and/or introducing economy and regional food security, and do not require dams on the mainstem or on the of the reference scenario. targeted auctions for renewables to identify home to 21 million people. few remaining free-flowing major tributaries –
least-cost options. and that any additional hydropower can be sited These examples demonstrate how the integration Hydropower has been a primary source of so as to have minimal impact on fisheries and Financing of new renewables not only needs to of capacity expansion models with landscape electricity for Mekong countries, but studies show sediment per unit of hydropower produced. be scaled up dramatically, it also needs to include models to guide siting can reduce the impacts that a continuation of the current hydropower funding for system planning, via both domestic Although there are signs that the renewable from hydropower within power systems. A range trajectory would cause the loss of nearly half of revolution is taking hold in the Mekong region, of other best practices can be used to further budgets but also through support from international migratory fish biomass. Deprived of sediment decisions in the next few years on highly minimize impacts from hydropower generation, financial institutions. The integration of capacity trapped behind dams and subject to other impactful dams such as Sambor could preclude including rehabilitating and retrofitting existing expansion models with models to guide siting of pressures, the delta could be more than half more balanced outcomes. Coordinated and hydropower dams, re-operating dams and cascades, new renewables can help decision makers underwater by the end of this century. and adding turbines to non-powered dams. Overall, understand tradeoffs of different options and proactive policies and planning are needed to incorporation of the mitigation hierarchy into regional identify those options that perform well across a Recent studies suggest that the region could ensure that countries pursue a more planning for new renewable projects can reduce range of objectives (see Box ES-1). meet future power demand with considerably sustainable energy path. lower development of hydropower than
i Note that the bar for 1,850 GW is depicted as having no range of potential improvement from system planning, but that is because that level of development requires building all the dams in the database and thus we can’t model different configurations
6 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 7 THE VISION
CONCLUSION Within a very short time, the vision of low-cost, ENDNOTES low-carbon, and low-impact power systems has 1 IRENA (2019): “Renewable Capacity Statistics 2019.” International Renewable become a real possibility. Much of the renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Abu Dhabi. energy revolution is already underway. Although Retrieved from: https://www.irena. org/publications/2019/Mar/Capacity- this transition received some initial momentum Statistics-2019 2 IEA (2017): “Solar leads the charge in BOX ES-2 from policies, it is now driven as much by another record year for renewables.” technological innovation and marketplace Retrieved from: https://www.iea.org/ renewables2017/ competition as by policy8. 3 Opperman, J., Grill, G. and Hartmann, KEY CONTRIBUTIONS J., (2015). The Power of Rivers: Finding TO A SUSTAINABLE We can not only envision a future where electricity balance between energy and conservation in hydropower development. Washington, ENERGY FUTURE systems are accessible, affordable and powering DC: The Nature Conservancy. 4 Teske, Sven., (2019): Achieving the Paris economies with a mix of renewable energy Climate Agreement Goals. Springer. • Governments can (1) implement 5 Baruch-Mordo, S., Kiesecker, J., Kennedy, technologies — including solar, wind, storage and C.M., Oakleaf, J.R. and Opperman, J.J., system-scale planning and licensing low-impact hydropower—we can now build that (2018): From Paris to practice: sustainable implementation of renewable energy focused on integrated power systems future. Growing electricity demands and climate goals. Environmental Research Letters. to identify and develop those that are 6 Opperman et al. 2015 (see note 3); Zarfl, objectives can be achieved while avoiding the Christiane, Alexander Lumsdon, Jürgen low cost, low carbon and low impact. Berlekamp (2015): A global boom in negative impacts on the world’s remaining free- hydropower dam construction. Aquatic Through this, countries can reassess plans flowing rivers posed by high-impact hydropower. Sciences 77 (1): 161-170. 7 Baruch-Mordo, et al. 2018 (see note 5); for hydropower to factor in the full value Zarfl et al. 2015 (see note 6). of rivers and consider the availability of Achieving the vision will require policy, financial, 8 IRENA (2019). Innovation landscape for a and technical innovations across all countries. renewable-powered future. International lower impact alternatives; and (2) create Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Fortunately, at this stage the feasibility of low- competitive frameworks to accelerate carbon, low-cost and low-impact systems the renewable energy revolution to help — and the benefits of achieving them — are them meet international commitments, becoming clear, creating powerful incentives for most importantly national contributions different groups of stakeholders (see Box ES-2). to the Paris Agreement, SDGs, and These stakeholders need to take proactive and CBD targets. collaborative action to ensure a rapid transition • Developers can facilitate the transition to more sustainable power systems. If various by supporting more comprehensive constraints delay the transition by even a decade, upstream planning and by improving the health and productivity of rivers such as the their own project assessments using Mekong, Irrawaddy, and Amazon — and dozens sustainability protocols and safeguards. or hundreds of others around the world — will Developers will benefit from a pipeline decline due to significant impacts that are both of lower-risk projects and, specifically for near-permanent and avoidable. It would be a the hydropower sector, from providing great tragedy if the full environmental benefits of higher-value ancillary services. the renewable revolution arrived just a few years too late to safeguard the world’s great rivers • Financial institutions can also support and all the diverse benefits they provide to more comprehensive planning as a people and nature. way to develop a pipeline of lower- risk projects, focusing their lending To avoid those losses — and seize the profound on opportunities emerging from such opportunity before us — we hope this report plans, and requiring their clients to serves as a call to action for collaborative apply ambitious sustainability protocols acceleration: working together, governments, and safeguards. Making direct funding financial institutions, the private sector, civil available for such activities can be critical. society and scientists can build the tools and Financiers will benefit from lower-risk mechanisms necessary to catalyze rapid delivery projects and, particularly relevant for of a more sustainable energy future for the development banks, accomplish diverse climate, rivers and people. objectives, including multiple SDGs. © Jim Richardson Jim ©
8 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 9 1 CHAPTER 2 THE VISION Chapter
INTRODUCTION The world faces a set of critical and intertwined challenges. We must expand electricity generation to meet the needs of growing economies and to supply power to the more than one billion people who currently lack access.
Simultaneously, the climate change crisis requires We can now envision a future in which electricity us to cut greenhouse gas emissions to nearly zero systems are accessible, affordable and powering by 2050 — a complicated challenge as electricity economies with a more sustainable mix of renewable production is among today’s leading sources of energy technologies — including solar, wind, storage greenhouse gases — all while maintaining the and low-impact hydropower. For the first time, there integrity of our world’s ecosystems, including are viable renewable alternatives to the high-impact preserving the planet’s remaining free-flowing rivers. hydropower dams that are currently planned on many of the world’s remaining free-flowing rivers. Today, the world has a great opportunity to solve This business-as-usual development path would these challenges. By capitalizing on economic and trigger a range of negative impacts, including the financial trends as well as improved technologies, displacement of many communities and the loss of we can secure a brighter future for people and for productive freshwater fisheries and much of nature with power systems that are low carbon, low the sediment needed to keep economically crucial cost and low impact on rivers and other ecosystems. deltas above the rising seas. But the renewable This brighter future has been made possible by revolution means the world no longer needs to the renewable revolution — featuring rapidly accept such dramatic tradeoffs to meet our growing falling costs for wind and solar generation and electricity demands and climate objectives. storage technologies, and significant advancements This report explores how a set of planning in energy efficiency, demand side management, approaches, and policy and financial mechanisms, and grid management. Furthermore, great progress can ensure that the world benefits from the has been made on the accessibility of tools that opportunity in the renewable revolution by allow governments to strategically plan power accelerating the arrival of power systems that systems so that the expansion and operation of are simultaneously low carbon, low cost, and as projects can maximize synergies and minimize low impact as possible. negative impacts. © Petar Sabol / TNC Photo Contest 2018
10 CONNECTED AND FLOWING 11 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
The vision that underpins this report is essentially growth. Systems that are low carbon and low principles (low cost, low carbon and low impact) today and its implications for how the world meets agnostic to specific energy technologies or sources. impact but do not meet these other expectations will work for people, nature and the climate. In its energy needs are profound: countries can now It acknowledges that nearly all forms of generation will not be politically acceptable and thus will not practice, we believe that electricity systems that reliably power their economies with systems that can cause some negative impacts to environmental happen. Furthermore, social equity demands that meet these principles will increasingly be those that are low carbon with far lower impacts than in the and social resources and that a rapid proliferation of energy investments also ensure access to the more avoid the significant tradeoffs associated with high- past, including a much reduced need to accept the renewable sources poses its own risks if not planned than one billion people that still lack access to impact hydropower projects, including large-scale tradeoffs that come with the loss of healthy rivers. and implemented in a coordinated way. Rather reliable electricity. In fact, the short construction relocation of people and major impacts on fisheries, But economic and technical feasibility does not than pre-determining or pre-judging options, this times and low costs of new renewables allow deltas and other valuable ecosystems and services. automatically translate into adoption. Various forms vision is based on a set of principles. countries to accelerate access to electricity. The rise of credible renewable alternatives will of friction can slow the transition to power systems diminish the need for such high-impact dams. To tackle these intertwined challenges and 3. Low impact. Nearly all common options for that are both low carbon and low impact. If these support global efforts to achieve the Sustainable producing energy have some negative impacts However, avoiding those tradeoffs and impacts constraints delay this transition by even a decade, the Development Goals (SDGs) and the targets under on environmental and social resources. But, does not equate to an end to hydropower health and productivity of rivers such as the Mekong, the Paris Climate Agreement, the world must move increasingly, we know the best practices that development, but to a significant shift in its role Irrawaddy, and Amazon — and dozens or hundreds toward electricity systems that are: can reduce these impacts. This vision holds that and competitive niche. Hydropower projects of others around the world — will decline due to politically viable, low-carbon energy systems provide a range of services that can help balance significant impacts that are both near-permanent 1. Low carbon. should be as low impact as possible. This can power systems and facilitate the integration of a and avoidable. It would be a great tragedy if the full The imperative to decarbonize energy systems, be accomplished by fully evaluating the diverse higher share of wind and solar generation — both environmental benefits of the renewable revolution and economies in general, becomes increasingly options for meeting energy needs and quantifying through the reoperation of existing hydropower and arrived just a few years too late to safeguard the clear with each passing year. A stable climate — the associated tradeoffs to inform development strategically designed new projects, including off- world’s great rivers and all the diverse benefits they and prosperous societies and healthy ecosystems decisions. Then, best practices can be applied channel pumped storage, that avoid the significant provide to people and nature. — requires that electricity systems move rapidly to minimize the impacts associated with the tradeoffs associated with past development. These To avoid those losses — and seize the profound to being low carbon and efficient and that selected option. carefully planned projects will provide lower risk opportunity before us — we hope this report serves some sectors, such as heating and light-duty and higher value to investors and developers, Achieving this vision will not happen by as a call to action for collaborative acceleration: transportation, be electrified, a transition that while delivering greater overall values to countries pre-judging what technologies and mixes of energy working together, governments, financial institutions, will become more feasible as the cost of electric and communities. generation should be deployed. Decisions about the private sector, civil society and scientists can power declines. future electricity systems should follow a process to A primary theme of this report is that the renewable build the tools and mechanisms necessary to 2. Low cost. This vision requires systems that are identify options that are consistent with the principles revolution is not some techno-optimist ideal catalyze rapid delivery of a more sustainable future affordable, reliable and meet needs for economic above. Any mix of sources that can meet those shimmering in the hazy future. It is happening for energy, rivers and people.
REPORT STRUCTURE
In Chapter 2 we lay out this vision We conclude by discussing how to the best practices available for rivers, ranges from tens to In Chapter 7 we synthesize and civil society to accelerate the and define what we mean by all of these technologies interact, to guide the siting, design and hundreds of thousands of kilometers all the various themes of the arrival of the renewable revolution. systems that are low carbon, low including the new roles and operation of projects and systems of river channels. report—from technological Chapter 8 provides a brief cost and low impact and describe business models for hydropower to minimize impacts on social and improvements to planning and Chapter 6. The first five chapters summary and conclusion, the urgent need to meet those that will help enable the renewable environmental values. policy—and ground them in one make the case that this vision is including a review of the roles and principles in an integrated way. revolution. place: the Mekong River basin, Chapter 5 explores the global possible and is already happening opportunities for various entities a region that, perhaps more than In Chapter 3 we illustrate why this Chapter 4 shows how the different potential for improved outcomes in some parts of the world. However, — including governments, financial any other, illustrates the diverse vision is attainable. The chapter technologies fit together within for rivers by achieving this vision. the dramatic acceleration that will institutions and developers — reviews the rapidly evolving power systems, synthesizing The renewable revolution makes be necessary to meet the world’s values that could be lost if to accelerate the renewable landscape for different energy modeling and real-world case new pathways possible and growing demand for electricity, more-sustainable energy revolution and the benefits that technologies and summarizes the studies to demonstrate the integrated planning can identify the while keeping climate change development pathways are not will accrue to them by doing so. renewable revolution, including feasibility of planning for and mix of generation sources that can below 1.5° C and helping to achieve found. We show that a more- its drivers and the opportunities operating grids that are affordable, be low carbon, low cost and low the SDGs will require overcoming sustainable path is possible it makes possible. We discuss the efficient, reliable, low carbon and impact. Best practices in planning key existing and future barriers. for the Mekong region, but implications for the hydropower low impact. Because grids are and siting can minimize the impacts In Chapter 6 we recommend a set that will require concerted and industry and the ways in which made up of generation sources from the expansion of new projects. of regulatory and policy reforms collaborative action across it must adapt to meet broader that must be placed somewhere The benefit of achieving this vision, and financial solutions that would governments, financial societal goals and expectations. on the landscape, we then turn in terms of improved outcomes enable this vision. institutions, the private sector
12 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 13 2 CHAPTER 2 THE VISION Chapter
THE VISION
14 CONNECTED AND FLOWING © Nick Hall THE VISION
Chapter 2
So, how do we meet the growing global demand for affordable electricity to power economies and lift people out of poverty, while drastically reducing carbon emissions and also safeguarding rivers and the abundant and diverse resources and services they provide to society?
The renewable revolution — enabled by the KEY POINTS dramatic improvements in wind and solar generation including a steep drop in cost that greatly increases their competitiveness — coupled • This report describes a vision for how with best practices for integrated energy planning, the renewable energy revolution will provide an unprecedented opportunity to tackle enable power systems that are low these intertwined challenges. carbon, low cost, and low impact. This report outlines a vision for how the world • Low carbon: Although electricity is a leading source of greenhouse gases can make simultaneous progress on increasing — and demand is projected to double affordable electricity generation, reducing by 2050 — meeting climate objectives emissions, and safeguarding rivers and terrestrial requires the world to cut emissions by habitats. The vision is essentially agnostic about approximately 40-50% by 2030 and what technologies should be deployed but, rather, economies will need to become nearly rests on a set of principles. To succeed, the world carbon free by 2050. must move toward electricity systems that are:
• Low cost: Power systems meeting 1. Low carbon due to the urgent need to reduce To take just a few examples, under a rise of 1.5ºC, 14% remain within lower ranges of climate change, with criteria of low carbon and low impact emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to of the world’s population is projected to be exposed faster rates of emissions decline posing greater social also need to meet the expectations of maintain a stable climate and safeguard to extreme heat waves while 37% would be exposed and economic challenges. Furthermore, delays in citizens, businesses, and governments economies and ecosystems; under a 2ºC rise — a difference measured in billions emission reductions makes it more likely that even for electricity that is reliable and of people. The number of people living in regions scenarios that ultimately can achieve the 1.5ºC goal 2. Low cost: affordable, reliable, and equitable, affordable (i.e., cost competitive). with water stress is projected to be 50% greater under will require some duration of overshoot — a period satisfying the world’s growing demand for This will enable access for those who a 2ºC rise, compared to 1.5ºC. The Fourth National of time, often decades, where global temperature electricity, including providing for the more than currently lack reliable electricity Climate Assessment, issued by 13 agencies of the exceeds a 1.5ºC rise before declining back to that one billion people that currently lack access — (approximately a billion people U.S. government, estimated that, without significant target, increasing the risk of various climate-related and therefore meeting the basic requirements worldwide). progress on reducing emissions, climate change will impacts on people, economies and ecosystems. The for political viability; and • Low impact: Although nearly all cost the U.S. economy US$500 billion per year by the concept of overshoot also highlights that delays in 3. As low impact as possible, given that forms of generation have some end of the century, equivalent to 10% of the U.S. Gross reducing emissions will increase the need for negative nearly all forms of electricity generation have 2 environmental and social impacts, a Domestic Product . emissions, such as the removal of carbon through some unavoidable impacts and tradeoffs. agriculture, forestry and other land-use (AFOLU) range of best practices can identify Underscoring the urgency of action, the IPCC also sectors or through bioenergy with carbon capture low-impact sites and mitigate and concludes that, to avoid exceeding 1.5ºC, the world and storage (BECCS)3. compensate for residual impacts on 2.1 LOW CARBON will need to cut emissions by approximately 40-50% ecosystems and communities. The imperative to reduce global GHG emissions by 2030, just over a decade from now, and energy Because electricity generation represents is becoming more obvious and urgent with systems and economies will need to become nearly approximately one quarter of global GHG emissions, each passing year, underscored by two reports carbon free by 2050. the decarbonization of power systems is one of the primary changes needed to achieve necessary released in late 2018. In their special report, Global Beyond specific thresholds, the message is clear: 4 1 emissions reductions . This will require a rapid Warming of 1.5ºC , the Intergovernmental Panel greater warming will lead to greater impacts and thus transition away from fossil fuels (coal, natural gas on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasized that the countries need to reduce emissions at a fast pace — and oil) to low-carbon renewables such as wind, negative impacts of climate change on economies and begin that process as soon as possible (Figure 2.1). solar, geothermal and hydropower. Illustrating the and ecosystems increase considerably if warming Any delay in emissions reductions increases the rate scale of the challenge: fossil fuels are today’s leading
exceeds 1.5ºC and approaches or surpasses 2ºC. © Nicolas Axelrod / Ruom / WWF-Greater Mekong at which they will need to be cut later for the world to
16 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 17 CHAPTER 2 THE VISION
Breakdown2.1. Breakdown of contributions of contributions to global to global net COnet2 CO2emissions emissions in four in fourillustrative illustrative model model pathways pathways BreakdownBreakdownBreakdownBreakdown of contributions of ofof contributions contributionscontributions to global to toto global globalglobal net net CO netnet 2CO COemissionsCO22 2emissions emissionsemissions in four in inin four fourfourillustrative illustrative illustrativeillustrative model model modelmodel pathways pathways pathwayspathways BillionBillion tonnes tonnes CO er CO year per (Gt yearCO (Gt/yr)CO /yr) Fossil■ uel Fossil and fuel industry and industry AFOLU ■ AFOLU BECCS ■ BECCS BillionBillionBillionBillion tonnes tonnes tonnestonnes CO22 CO er COCO2 2year2 er er er year(Gt yearyearCO (Gt (Gt(Gt22/yr)COCOCO2/yr)22/yr)/yr) Fossil Fossil uelFossil Fossil and uel uel uel industry and andand industry industryindustry AFOLU AFOLU AFOLU AFOLU BECCS BECCS BECCS BECCS P1 P1 P2 P2 P3 P3 P4 P4 0 P1 40P1P1P1 0 P2 40P2P2P2 0 P3 40P3P3P3 0 P4 40P4P4P4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 202020 20 202020 20 202020 20 202020
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 More than one billion people lack access to 20 -20 20 -20 20 -20 20 -20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2020 2020 2060 2060 2100 21002020 2020 2060 2060 2100 21002020 2020 2060 2060 2100 21002020 2020 2060 2060 2100 2100 electricity, mostly in 2020 202020202020 2060 206020602060 2100 2100210021002020 202020202020 2060 206020602060 2100 2100210021002020 202020202020 2060 206020602060 2100 2100210021002020 202020202020 2060 206020602060 2100 210021002100 Africa, as indicated by P1: A scenarioP1: A scenario in which in social which social, P2 A scenarioP2: A scenario with a broad with a ocus broad focus on A iddle o the road A middle-of-the-road scenario scenario A resource A resource- and energy intensive and energy-intensive P1: A P1:scenarioP1:P1: A A Ascenario scenario scenario in which in in in whichsocial which which social social social P2 A P2scenarioP2P2 A A Ascenario scenario scenario with a with broad with with a a broad a ocus broad broad ocus ocus ocus P3:P3: A P3: iddle o the roadP3:P3: A A A iddle o the road iddle o the road iddle o the road scenario scenario scenario scenario P4:P4: A resource P4:P4:P4: A A Aresource resource resource and energy intensive and and and energy intensive energy intensive energy intensive this image of nighttime businessbusiness and technological and technological on sustainabilitysustainability including including energy energy businessbusinessbusinessbusiness and technological and and and technological technological technological on sustainabilityononon sustainability sustainability sustainability including including including including energy energy energyenergy inin which whichinin insocietal whichsocietal which which societal societalas societalas well well as asas as well well well as as as scenarioscenarioscenarioscenario scenarioin in which which in in inecono ic whichecono ic which which econo ic econo iceconomic econo ic growth growth growth growth growth lighting. SDG7 is innovationsinnovations result in result lower in energy lower energyintensity intensity, hu an develo ent human development, innovationsinnovationsinnovationsinnovations result resultin result result lower in in in lowerenergy lower lower energy energy energyintensity intensity intensity intensity hu an hu an hu an develo ent hu an develo ent develo ent develo ent technologicaltechnologicaltechnologicaltechnologicaltechnological develo ent develo ent develo ent develo ent developmentdevelo ent andand globali ation globali ationandandand globali ation globali ationglobalization globali ation lead lead to to lead wides readlead wides readlead to to to wides read wides readwidespread wides read de anddemand u to 2050 up towhile 2050 living while livingecono ic economic convergence convergence and and focused on ensuring de andde andde andde and u to u 2050 u u to to towhile2050 2050 2050 whileliving while while living living living econo ic econo icecono icecono ic convergence convergence convergence convergence and and and and ollows ollows ollows historical ollowsfollowshistorical ollows historical historical historical atterns. atterns. atterns. atterns. patterns. atterns. ado tionado tionado tionado tionadoptionado tion o o greenhouse gas greenhouse gas o o of o greenhouse gas greenhouse gas greenhouse-gas-inten greenhouse gas - standardsstandards rise es ecially rise, especially in the in theinternational international coo eration cooperation, as well asas well as universal access to standardsstandardsstandardsstandards rise es ecially rise rise rise es ecially es ecially es ecially in the in in inthe the the international internationalinternationalinternational coo eration coo eration coo eration coo eration as well as as as well well well E issionsasE issions as as E issionsE issionsEmissionsE issions reductions reductions reductions reductions reductions are are ainly ainly are are are ainly ainly mainly ainly intensiveintensive intensiveintensivesiveintensive li estyles li estyles lifestyles, li estyles li estyles li estyles including including including including including including high high high high demandhigh high global South.global A South. downsi ed A downsized energy energyshi ts towardsshifts towards sustainable sustainable and and globalglobal South.globalglobal South. ASouth. South. downsi ed A A Adownsi ed downsi ed downsi ed energy energy energyenergyshi ts shi tstowardsshi tsshi ts towards towards towards sustainable sustainable sustainable sustainable and and and and achievedachievedachievedachievedachieved by by changing changing by by by changing changing changing the the way way the thein thein way way way in in de and inde and de andde andfor de and or or transportation trans ortation trans ortation or or or trans ortation trans ortation trans ortation fuels uels uels and and and uels uels uelslivestock and and and affordable and syste enablessystem enablesra id decarboni a rapid decarboniza healthy- healthyconsu tion consumption atterns patterns, syste syste syste enablessyste enables enables enablesra id ra iddecarboni a ra id ra id decarboni a decarboni a decarboni a healthy healthyhealthy healthyconsu tion consu tion consu tion consu tion atterns atterns atterns atterns whichwhich energy whichenergywhichwhich energy and energyandenergy roducts roducts and and and roducts roducts products roducts are are are are are livestock livestock livestocklivestockproducts.livestock roducts. roducts. roducts. roducts. roducts.Emissions E issions E issions E issions E issions E issionsreductions are clean energy. tion o energytion of su ly.energy Asupply. orestation A orestation low carbon low-carbon technology technology innovation innovation, tion o tion energytiontion o o o energy energy su ly.energy su ly. su ly.Asu ly. orestation A A Aorestation orestationorestation low carbon low carbonlow carbonlow carbon technology technology technology technology innovation innovation innovation innovation roduced roduced roduced roduced produced, roduced and and to to anda aand andlesser lesser to to to a a degreelesser adegree lesser lesser degree degree degreereductionsreductions reductionsreductionsmainlyreductions are are ainly achieved ainly are are are ainlyachieved achieved ainly ainly through achieved achieved achieved technologi - is the onlyis the C R only o tion CDR considered option considered; and well anagedand well-managed land syste s land systems is the isonlyis isthe the the C R only only only o tion C R C R C R o tion o tion considered o tion considered considered considered and well anagedandandand well anaged well anaged well anaged land syste s land land land syste s syste s syste s by by reductions reductionsbybyby reductions reductions reductions in in de and. de and. in in inde and. de and. demand.de and. throughthroughthrough throughcaltechnological throughtechnological means, technological technological technological making eans eans strong eans aking eans aking eans use aking of aking aking CDR neither ossilneither uels fossil with fuels CCS with nor CCS norwith li itedwith societallimited societalacce tability acceptability neitherneither neither ossilneither uels ossil ossil ossil with uels uels uels CCS with with with nor CCS CCS CCS nor nor nor with li itedwithwithwith li ited li itedsocietalli ited societal societal societalacce tability acce tability acce tability acce tability strongstrong stronguse usestrongthroughstrong o o C Ruse C R use use the o through o through o C Rdeployment C R C R through throughthe throughthe of the the BECCS.the BECCS areBECCS used. are used. or BECCS.for BECCS. BECCSBECCS BECCSareBECCS used. are are are used. used. used. or BECCS. or or or BECCS. BECCS. BECCS. de loy entde loy entde loy entde loy entde loy ent o o BECCS. BECCS. o o o BECCS. BECCS. BECCS.
generation sources representing 65% of the total become electrified and are then powered by 2.1. To achieve climate 2.2. Global electricity and renewables mix and still dominated by coal. Renewable sources renewable sources of electricity. objectives — and maintain Global electricity and renewables mix stable economies and healthy make up 25% of current global electricity generation, ecosystems — emissions of dominated by hydropower at nearly 70% (Figure 2.2), Even as demand for electricity increases, most greenhouse gases need to decline considerably and which amounts to approximately 16% of total global countries have committed to making the transition swiftly, beginning within electricity generation. to low-carbon systems through their Nationally the next few years. Delays Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris in emission reductions will Renewables Global Exacerbating the challenge of achieving a rapid increase the chance of the electricity Climate Agreement and, more generally, through transition away from fossil fuels and toward world overshooting 1.5ºC SDG7. Lowering total energy demand, such as and would require large-scale renewables, global electricity demand is projected through technical innovation (e.g., energy efficiency) carbon removal to bring the to more than double by 2050 (Figure 2.3). Three global temperature increase and demand-side management, can also play back below that critical primary factors will contribute to this growth in an important role in achieving climate targets. In threshold. (adapted from ■ electricity demand. 5) ydro ower IPCC 2018 ■ the recent set of scenarios modeled in the IPCC Wind 1 ■ Coal ■ • Increasing access. Currently 1.1 billion people (14% 1.5ºreport, those that include lowering of energy Solar ■ Gas 2 2.2. Global electricity ■ of the world’s population) lack access to reliable generation by source and Other 10 ■ Oil demand, arising through social, business and Geother al bio uel renewable generation ■ 8 tidal and wave uclear 10 electricity, mostly in Africa . Because this lack of technological innovation, require the least reliance 6 ■ by source Renewables 25 access is associated with poorer outcomes for on relatively untested carbon removal interventions, health, education and economic opportunities, such as BECCS — and also entail the lowest SDG7 challenges the world to “ensure access tradeoffs between climate objectives and other to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern SDGs (e.g., see P1 in Figure 2.1). 2.3. Global electricity 2.3. Electricity demand by region demand is projected to Electricity demand by selected region energy for all.” more than double by 2050, Countries that already generate a high proportion with greatest growth in • Meeting energy demand as populations and of their electricity from renewables provide insights Asia. Along with expanding Latin A erica 3.5% economies grow. Growing populations and into potential pathways to achieve climate and access to electricity, electrification of sectors economies will contribute to rising electricity energy goals as well as examples of practices such as transportation 2.3% demand. With the highest current population and for managing grids with a high share of variable and heating — crucial for For er Soviet Re ublics reducing GHG emissions — most rapid economic growth rates, Asia will see renewable energy. contributes to this rise7. ■ the largest absolute increase in demand while 2020 Eighteen countries are currently renewable A rica and Middle East 4.6% ■ Growth toto 20502050 with CAGR Africa, with the largest projected population energy dominated, generating 80% or more of growth9 and rising living standards, will see the their electricity from those sources. In 14 of these largest proportional increase among continents. Asia 3.0% countries, hydropower accounts for more than • Electrification of other sectors. Most projections 80% of renewable generation. Indeed, in only one OEC and EU 2.1% of how the world can achieve the necessary of these countries is hydropower not the majority reductions in GHG emissions require that several of renewable generation. In Kenya, geothermal 0 10 000 20 000 0 000 0 000 sectors currently powered directly by fossil fuels provides 54% of renewable regeneration and 10 TWh © NASA-GSFC — including heating and transportation — hydropower provides another 43%.
18 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 19 CHAPTER 2 THE VISION © Dave Lauridsen
Overall, 48 countries currently generate more than electricity generation have done so primarily how the world can meet future electricity demand these issues is beyond the scope of this report, half of their electricity from renewables. For 34 of through hydropower. However, a high reliance while also achieving climate goals include a massive but here we provide a short review of key concepts them, hydropower represents most (>80%) of their on hydropower can be in conflict with the third increase in the proportion of wind and solar, for reliability, affordability and accessibility. renewable generation. Denmark has achieved 60% principle — systems that are as low impact as with these sources expected to attain a share of Power systems are planned and operated with renewable generation, with 70% of that coming possible on environmental resources. generation comparable to, or exceeding, that of the objective of providing a continuous supply of from wind. Denmark is increasingly relying on its hydropower. For example, a projection from Teske et Although hydropower is generally considered a affordable power to meet demand at all times, integration into the large European grid, which al. (2019) forecasts that wind will increase by nearly low-carbon source of generation — the IPCC even during peak hours and even if some allows it to import and export power as required. 20 times, and solar by more than 60 times 2050, estimates emissions from hydropower to be only components of the system (such as a power plant A significant part of the back-up for Denmark’s wind compared to their current levels (Figure 2.4). In this 5% that of natural gas and 3% of coal’s emissions11 or a transmission line) may not be available. Since generation is provided by Norwegian hydropower forecast, global wind capacity would reach 5 times, — certain types of reservoirs, particularly electricity can only be stored at considerable cost, generators (with a grid that is 97% hydropower). and solar 10 times, the capacity of hydropower14. shallow ones in the tropics, can have significant the preference is for power stations to generate As this summary makes clear, the majority of countries emissions12 and recent research suggests that Although the relative growth of hydropower is exactly what is consumed, or to “follow the load.” that have achieved a very high level of renewable methane emissions from reservoirs may be higher projected to be far smaller than those of wind and This requires considerable reserve capacity, flexibility, than previously thought13. Ongoing research is solar, because hydropower starts from such a large real-time adjustments and so-called “ancillary exploring emissions from reservoirs and this risk baseline, the total projected increases in capacity services” provided by some types of power plants, remains an important factor to assess during are quite high. Various estimates of global to maintain grid stability in terms of frequency and 2.4. Projections of the growth of hydropower, wind and solar to 2050. The figure on the left reflects average values planning and review of potential dams. hydropower capacity increases range from 300 GW voltage. Hydopower plants are particularly effective from IPCC (2018) scenarios that meet the 1.5ºC target by 2100 to well over 1,000 GW, representing increases of at providing these ancillary services. with low overshoot, while the figure on the right depicts While hydropower has been the dominant source 25% to more than 100% from the current baseline projections from Teske et al. (2019). of renewable generation so far, projections of In well-operated power systems, a central dispatch of approximately 1,200 GW (compare Teske and IPPC organization uses short-term demand and supply projections for hydropower in Figure 2.4).15 forecasts to assign generation to the lowest- 2.4.Projections Projections of growthof growth in renewablesin global capacity of renewables cost power plants. The dispatchers start with the renewable plants, which have no fuel costs, and IPCC 1.5deg scenarios (GW) TeskeTeske 1.5degglobal ca acityscenario (GW) (GW) 2.2 LOW COST: POWER THAT IS ACCESSIBLE, AFFORDABLE then add plants with increasingly higher costs AND RELIABLE until demand is met. In some systems, there are short-term or spot markets between generating Hydro Wind Solar Hydro Wind Solar While this report primarily emphasizes the low 15000 15000 companies, wholesalers, distribution companies and carbon and lost impact principles of sustainable individual large consumers. In others, there is just power systems, it is clear that power systems 12000 12000 one large monopolistic utility, which is tasked with meeting those criteria will only be developed if they optimizing generation internally. The utility may be 000 000 also meet the expectations of citizens, businesses purchasing part of its supply from independent and governments. Low-carbon, low-impact power generators, or from distributed generation 000 000 systems must meet countries’ power demands with facilities (such as rooftop solar panels) on the electricity that is reliable and affordable (i.e., cost 000 000 basis of “net metering” arrangements. competitive). Furthermore, those who currently lack 0 0 reliable electricity (approximately one billion people Recent technical advances are challenging traditional 2015 2050 2015 2050 2015 2050 2015 2050 2015 2050 2015 2050 worldwide) must gain access. A full exploration of assumptions about grid planning and operation.
20 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 21 CHAPTER 2 THE VISION
For example, distributed generation through small demonstrate that these principles can be renewable development can occur on natural lands, A key reason that wind and solar can largely be renewable facilities and distributed storage in consistent with reliable and affordable electricity. resulting in the conversion, fragmentation and/ developed in ways that minimize environmental electric vehicle batteries are changing both the or degradation of habitats and contributing to the and social impacts is the extensive area of already demand and the supply side of the power market and loss of biodiversity. With poor siting, more than 10 converted lands that can support renewable energy 2.3 LOW IMPACT thereby, the “net load” that the utility has to provide. million hectares of natural lands worldwide (an area projects. For example, wind can be highly compatible Micro-grids have become more feasible, since they A fundamental premise of current global the size of Iceland) could be cleared for wind and with agricultural land use, and farmers can diversify no longer depend on diesel generators. Variable agreements and many national policies is that solar development as countries seek to meet their their income by leasing their land for wind turbines. large-scale renewables have made it necessary the climate impacts from fossil fuel sources of NDC commitments18. The accompanying roads and Rooftop solar occupies space in urban areas that is to consider how to provide and pay for back-up electricity, and other anthropogenic causes, transmission lines could also convert and fragment largely unused currently and can benefit building capacities. Smart meters and internet-connected represent a threat to the stability of global natural habitats. These impacts conflict with SDG15 owners through net-metering. These examples appliances will make demand management easier16. economies and ecosystems and thus the world goals to halt and reverse habitat degradation (agricultural land and rooftops) highlight the great The combined implications of all these technical must rapidly move toward decarbonizing energy and loss. The conversion of natural lands is also potential to focus the development of renewable opportunities are still difficult to foresee. Similar to systems and economies. counterproductive to meeting climate goals, as it energy facilities on already converted lands to minimize can cause stored carbon to be released through impacts on natural habitats, biodiversity and carbon the communications sector, poorer countries may Beyond climate, nearly all forms of electricity the removal of vegetation and soil disturbance. storage. Other examples of converted lands that can be able to leapfrog certain stages in the development generation can cause some negative impacts on Depending on the siting of wind projects relative to support development of renewable energy include of their power sectors and may never have to invest social and environmental resources. The impacts migratory and movement pathways, they can also be pastures, roadways, degraded lands, and reservoirs. in large centralized baseload power plants. of traditional energy systems are widely known — detrimental to populations of birds and bats. Distributed generation and storage may also turn notably air quality in the case of fossil fuels and Baruch-Mordo et al. (2018) estimated the global out to be more resilient to disturbances, for example waste and proliferation in the case of nuclear — but However, landscape-scale planning can be used to technical potential of utility-scale renewable sources from natural disasters. this report is premised on the widespread transition strategically site wind and solar projects to minimize on converted lands (wind, concentrated solar power In general, choosing technologies for grid expansion of power systems toward renewable sources. these conflicts with other lands uses, habitats and (CSP) and photovoltaic solar (PV) and rooftop PV), or replacement of existing capacities should be Thus, here we provide a concise review of impacts species. Such processes integrate the mitigation and found the world has 17 times the energy based on technical feasibility and on costs, as well as associated with renewable electricity projects. hierarchy into infrastructure planning to direct new potential on converted lands compared to the Paris on other socio-economic, environmental and political projects to low-impact sites and maximize the value Agreement renewable energy targets (Figure 2.6). 19 considerations. Costs for the end-user are difficult 2.3.1 Wind and solar of mitigation investments . These approaches are In addition, this “low-impact” renewable potential reviewed further in Chapter 4. exceeded the projected 2050 demands under a to compare across countries and technologies, Compared to fossil fuels, renewable energy because of factors such as taxes and subsidies, but can have larger land use intensity (km2/unit of are frequently between US$ 0.10 and 0.20/kWh. energy; Figure 2.5). Therefore, as energy systems 2.6. Global distribution of low-impact wind and solar Benchmarks for actual generation costs are either the decarbonize and shift to renewable sources (with so-called Levelized Costs of Energy (LCOE, a measure large expansion of wind and solar), demand of the average cost of generation from a plant over its for land to site renewable power plants will lifetime) or the cost offered by generating companies increase. If not well planned and sited, this can to their off-takers. In Chapter 4, we compare grid exacerbate competition with other land uses such expansion scenarios that are low carbon and as agriculture, especially in countries where free low impact with business-as-usual scenarios to land can already be highly scarce. Furthermore,
2.5.Land-use Land-use footprints footprints Land use intensity (k 2/TW hr/yr)
Biofuels 505.2 Wind 2.1 Hydro 5 .0 Solar . Gas 1 . Coal .
CO2 e issions (gCO2e /kWh) 2.5. Land-use footprints 2.6. Map of converted for fossil fuels and terrestrial lands renewables energy overlaid by map of the sources adapted from maximal wind and Kiesecker and Naugle solar technical potential. (2017).17 (Baruch-Mordo et al., Wind 11 Hydro 2 Solar . Biofuels 2 0 Gas 0 Coal 20 2019)20
22 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 23 CHAPTER 2 THE VISION BEGIN BOX 2.1
2.7. Living Planet Index for freshwater species can trap many of the larger sediment particles FRESHWATER in transport (e.g., cobbles and gravels). Globally, 2 Key reservoirs trap about a quarter of sediment in Freshwater Living transport, resulting in a net reduction in the delivery Planet Index of sediment from watersheds to oceans of 1.4 billion Confidence limits tonnes/year, compared to levels before people began
1 modifying landscapes and rivers. The cumulative storage of sediment in reservoirs is approximately 100 billion tons24. This trapping disrupts the balance of Index value (1 0 1) erosion and sedimentation downstream, contributing to the degradation of the river bed (incision), which 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2000 2010 can isolate the river from its floodplain and lead to the loss of critical river habitats such as sand and cobble 2.7. Populations of freshwater species tracked by the Living Planet bars. Because sediment also transports key nutrients, Index have declined by 83% on average since 1970, nearly double sediment trapping also reduces nutrient availability the rate of decline for populations of species in terrestrial and marine environments. to downstream food webs, negatively impacting the productivity of fisheries. BOX 2.1
Finally, the retention of sediment within reservoirs
deprives downstream deltas of the material they FREE-FLOWING RIVERS scenario where all sectors (industry, transportation, need to keep pace with erosion, compaction, and Free-flowing rivers can be defined as rivers “where ecosystem functions and services are largely 21 etc.) become electrified. rising sea levels. Dams are one of the leading causes unaffected by changes to the fluvial connectivity allowing an unobstructed movement and exchange of shrinking deltas. Deltas are home to over 500 of water, energy, material and species within the river system and with surrounding landscapes. 2.3.2 Hydropower million people (1 out of every 12 people on earth)25 Fluvial connectivity encompasses longitudinal (river channel), lateral (floodplains), vertical Hydropower has long been the dominant form of and support some of the most productive fish (groundwater and atmosphere) and temporal (intermittency) components.” low-carbon renewable energy. However, hydropower harvests and agriculture — for example, the rapidly Free-flowing rivers are uniquely important but • 500 million people live on deltas that are dams can have considerable individual and cumulative receding Mekong delta supports half of the rice crop 35 26 disappearing — only about one-third of the world’s sustained in part by sediment from rivers. impacts. Dams that create large reservoirs inundate of Vietnam, a top global exporter of rice . If all the longest rivers (>1,000 km) are still free-flowing with upstream land, including crops and habitats, and proposed hydropower dams in the Mekong basin dams as the primary driver of this decline30. Rivers are Intact, healthy freshwater ecosystems are displace communities. The World Commission on were built, they would capture nearly all sediment in among the most diverse and productive ecosystems also critical for conserving nature and Dams estimated that 40 to 80 million people had been transport, exacerbating the shrinking of its delta (see on the planet, underpin entire landscapes, and biodiversity, providing habitats for over one displaced by dams by 200022. The number of dam- Chapter 7 for more detail on the Mekong and 27 contribute to economic growth, food security and hundred thousand species. Although they displaced people has grown significantly since then. its delta) . human well-being. Although these benefits are not represent less than 1 percent of the earth’s Additionally, dams are the leading cause of the loss Because of these various impacts on rivers’ habitat, exclusive to free-flowing rivers, the production of surface, nearly half of all fish species on the of free-flowing rivers (see Box 2.1), with hydropower flow, connectivity, sediment and nutrients, dams are many of them require the natural flow regime and planet can be found in freshwater ecosystems.36 dams being a primary cause of the loss of most consistently ranked among the leading contributors ecosystem processes that free-flowing rivers retain. But rivers aren’t only important for the life within large free-flowing rivers. to the population declines of freshwater species and them: rivers that are well connected to their 28 • One estimate of the global values of the ecosystem Dams and reservoirs can alter downstream flow their increased risks of extinction . The populations of riparian areas provide food, critical habitat, goods (e.g., food in the form of fish), ecosystem regimes, which govern river morphology and critical freshwater species tracked by the Living Planet Index and movement corridors to wildlife such as services (e.g., waste assimilation), biodiversity, and ecological processes. They also affect the downstream have declined by 83% on average since 1970 (Figure jaguars, elephants, tigers and other species. 2.7), nearly double the rate of decline for populations cultural considerations of inland waters yielded a transport of sediment, wood, and nutrients and disrupt In fact, entire landscapes, iconic species, 29 value higher than the estimated worth of all other of species in terrestrial and marine environments . and river systems are often connected. For the up- and downstream movement of organisms, non-marine ecosystems combined, despite the far example, the Great Bear Rainforest — the largest including fish and other aquatic species. Flow System-scale planning can reduce negative impacts smaller extent of freshwater systems.31 alterations can impact downstream agricultural uses of from new hydropower by informing site selection to temperate rainforest in the world — is shaped riverbanks and floodplains, often referred to as flood- avoid or minimize losses of environmental and social • By depositing nutrient-rich silt on floodplains in part by salmon swimming from the ocean up recession agriculture. Migratory fish and other species resources. Environmental flows can also be used to and deltas, rivers have created some of the most the rainforest’s free-flowing rivers and creeks. 32 can be particularly affected by dams that act as barriers reduce impacts from new hydropower or restore fertile agricultural land. Salmon carcasses (and carcasses that have been “processed” by bears and other consumers) to and from spawning habitats and, because migratory some functions downstream of existing dams. • Inland water fisheries provide the primary deliver ocean-derived nutrients to fertilize fish can be dominant within fish harvests, their loss source of protein for hundreds of millions of the soil, enhancing the growth of trees.37 Less can have major negative impacts on communities that 2.3.3 Achieving low impacts people worldwide and their value is estimated at easily quantified, but immensely important to depend on river fisheries23. upwards of US$43 billion.33 While a few countries, such as Norway, New Zealand, people, are the diverse cultural, spiritual, and Large reservoirs can trap nearly all sediment, except Iceland and Costa Rica, have achieved the goal • 2 billion people rely directly on rivers for their recreational values sustained by for the smallest particle sizes, and even small reservoirs that the rest of the world must reach — power © Wild Wonders of Europe / Cairns / naturepl.com drinking water.34 healthy, connected rivers.
24 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 25 CHAPTER 2 THE VISION
generation systems that are nearly 100% renewable focusing on the three primary ways to move power — hydropower development has negatively affected systems toward low impacts: a high proportion of their rivers. For example, those • Capacity expansion planning that compares countries contain a total of 15 large rivers, but only options and their tradeoffs to identify a mix two can be considered free flowing (see Box 2.1). of generation sources that will perform well for Although these countries are currently striving for sustainability objectives (low carbon, cost, sustainability in management and/or expansion, their and impacts); overall systems may not achieve the third principle of being as low impact as possible, due in large part • Best practices for siting projects (e.g., wind, to a legacy of investments made under previous solar, and/or hydropower) to minimize impacts regulatory conditions and the technological options while meeting power system objectives (which available at the time of development. could be integrated into capacity expansion planning), and In subsequent chapters we explore how low-carbon and low-cost power systems can also be low impact, • Best practices for design and operation of projects.
ENDNOTES
1 IPCC, (2018): Summary for 8 IEA (2017): Energy Access Database. Island Press. mekong-river-delta/ Policymakers. In: Global Warming Retrieved from: https://www.iea.org/ 18 Joseph Kiesecker, Sharon Baruch- 27 Kondolf, G. M., Z. K. Rubin, and of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report energyaccess/database/ Mordo, Christina M. Kennedy, James J. T. Minear (2014): “Dams on the on the impacts of global warming 9 Kazeem, Yomi (2017): “More than half R. Oakleaf, Alessandro Baccini, and Mekong: cumulative sediment of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels of the world’s population growth will Bronson W. Griscom. (Submitted). starvation.” Water and related global greenhouse be in Africa by 2050.” Quartz Africa. Hitting the target but missing the 28 Dias, M. S., P. A. Tedesco, gas emission pathways, in the Retrieved from: https://qz.com/ mark: unintended consequences of B. Hugueny, C. Jézéquel, O. context of strengthening the africa/1016790/more-than-half-of-the- the Paris climate agreement. Beauchard, S. Brosse, and T. global response to the threat worlds-population-growth-will-be-in- 19 Kiesecker, J. M., Copeland, H. E., Oberdorff (2017): “Anthropogenic of climate change, sustainable africa-by-2050/ McKenney, B. A., Pocewicz, A., and stressors and riverine fish development, and efforts to 10 IRENA (2018): “Renewable Capacity Doherty, K. E. (2011): “Energy by extinctions.” Ecological Indicators eradicate poverty [Masson- Statistics 2018.” International design: making mitigation work for 79:37-46. Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), conservation and development”. In: 29 WWF (2018): “Living Planet Report D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, Abu Dhabi. Retrieved from: https:// Naugle, D. (ed.) Energy Development – 2018: Aiming Higher.” Grooten, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, www.irena.org/publications/2018/ and Wildlife Conservation in Western M. and Almond, R.E.A. (Eds). WWF, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, Mar/Renewable-Capacity- North America. Washington, DC, Gland, Switzerland. J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, Statistics-2018 Island Press, pp. 159–81.; Kiesecker, 30 G. Grill et al. 2019. Mapping the M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, Maycock, 11 Schlömer, Steffen, Thomas Bruckner, J., Copeland, H., Pocewicz, A., and world’s free-flowing rivers. Nature; M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield Lew Fulton et al. (2014): Annex III: McKenney, B. (2010): “Development https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019- (eds.)]. World Meteorological Technology-specific cost and by design: blending landscape 1111-9 Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, performance parameters. In: Climate level planning with the mitigation 31 Dudgeon, D., Arthington, A.H., 32 pp. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate hierarchy.” Frontiers in Ecology and Gessner, M.O., Kawabata, Z.I., chapter/summary-for-policy-makers/ Change. Contribution of Working Environment 8, 261–6. Knowler, D.J., Lévêque, C., Naiman, 2 USGCRP (2018). Impacts, Risks, Group III to the Fifth Assessment 20 Baruch-Mordo, S., Kiesecker, J., R.J., Prieur-Richard, A.H., Soto, D., and Adaptation in the United Report of the Intergovernmental Panel Kennedy, C.M., Oakleaf, J.R. and Stiassny, M.L. and Sullivan, C.A., States: Fourth National Climate on Climate Change. Cambridge: Opperman, J.J., (2018): “From (2006): “Freshwater biodiversity: Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, Cambridge University Press. Paris to practice: sustainable importance, threats, status and 12 D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Fearnside, Philip (2005): “Do implementation of renewable conservation challenges.” Biological Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, hydroelectric dams mitigate global energy goals. Environmental reviews, 81(2), pp.163-182. warming? The case of Brazil’s Curuá- 32 and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Research Letters.” J. J. Opperman, P. B. Moyle, E. Una Dam.” Mitigation and Adaptation W. Larsen, J. L. Florsheim, A. D. Global Change Research Program, 21 Baruch-Mordo et al. 2018; see Strategies for Global Change 10 (4): Washington, DC, USA, 1515 pp. doi: note 20. Manfree, (2017): “Floodplains: 675-691. 10.7930/NCA4.2018.; https://www. 22 World Commission on Dams Processes and Management for 13 Deemer, Bridge, John Harrison, globalchange.gov/nca4 (2000): “Dams and development: A Ecosystem Services.” Univ of 3 Siyue Li et al. (2016): “Greenhouse Anderson, C.M., DeFries, R.S., new framework for decision-making: California Press, Berkeley, CA. Gas Emissions from Reservoir Water 33 Litterman, R., Matson, P.A., Nepstad, The report of the world commission FAO (2018): “The State of World Surfaces: A New Global Synthesis.” D.C., Pacala, S., Schlesinger, on dams.” Earthscan Publications, Fisheries and Aquaculture BioScience 66 (11): 949-964. W.H., Shaw, M.R., Smith, P., Virginia, USA. 2018 - Meeting the sustainable 14 Weber, C. and Field, C.B., (2019): Teske, Sven., (2019): “Achieving the 23 Ziv, G., Baran, E., Nam, S., Rodríguez- development goals.” Rome, Italy. 34 Natural climate solutions are not Paris Climate Agreement Goals”. Iturbe, I. and Levin, S.A., (2012). Opperman, J. J., S. Orr, H. Baleta, enough. Science, 363(6430), Springer. Switzerland. Retrieved from: Trading-off fish biodiversity, food M. Dailey, D. Garrick, M. Goichot, pp.933-934. https://link.springer.com/content/ security, and hydropower in the A. McCoy, A. Morgan, L. Turley 4 Environmental Protection Agency. pdf/10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2.pdf Mekong River Basin. Proceedings and A. Vermeulen (2018): “Valuing 15 Global greenhouse gas emissions Teske 2019 (see note 14); IPCC 2018 of the National Academy of Rivers: How the diverse benefits of data; https://www.epa.gov/ (see note 1) Sciences, 109(15), pp.5609-5614. healthy rivers underpin economies.” 16 ghgemissions/global-greenhouse- IRENA (2019): “Innovation landscape 24 Syvitski, James PM, et al. (2005): W WF. gas-emissions-data for a renewable-powered future: “Impact of humans on the flux of 35 Syvitski (2009). (See note 25) 5 IPCC 2018 (see note 1) Solutions to integrate variable terrestrial sediment to the global 36 Balian, E., H. Segers, C. Lévéque, 6 IEA (2017) World Energy Outlook; renewables.” International Renewable coastal ocean.” Science 308.5720: and K. Martens (2008). Freshwater BP (2017) Statistical Review of World Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Retrieved 376-380. Animal Diversity Assessment: Energy from: https://www.irena.org/ 25 Syvitski, James PM, et al. (2009): an overview of the results. 7 IPCC 2018 (see note 1); Figure publications/2019/Feb/Innovation- “Sinking deltas due to human Hydrobiologia. 595:627-637. 2.3 values for growth to 2050 by landscape-for-a-renewable-powered- activities.” Nature Geoscience 2.10: 37 BBC (2014): “How salmon help region are averages from IPCC future 681-686. keep huge rainforest thriving.” pathways limiting median warming 17 Kiesecker, J. M. and Naugle, D. (eds.) 26 R. Akam and G. Gruere. (2018) Rice Retrieved from: http://www.bbc. to below 1.5°C in 2100 and with a (2017): “Energy Sprawl Solutions: and risks in the Mekong River delta. com/future/story/20140218- 50 –67% probability of temporarily Balancing Global Development and OECD Insights; http://oecdinsights. salmon-fertilising-the-forests
overshooting that level earlier. Conservation”. Washington, DC, org/2018/01/16/rice-and-risks-in-the- © Franko Petri / WWF-Austria
26 CONNECTED AND FLOWING 27 3 CHAPTER 2 THE VISION Chapter
THE RENEWABLE REVOLUTION AND THE CHANGING ROLE FOR HYDROPOWER
28 CONNECTED AND FLOWING 29 © Shutterstock / DR Travel Photo and Video / WWF THE VISION
Chapter 3
The previous chapter laid out a vision of future electricity systems which are low carbon, reliable, accessible, affordable, and low impact. Here we review the different technologies that will make up these sustainable power systems and current trends in their costs, deployment, risks, and opportunities.
As we will see, past projections of the expansion POINTS of hydropower capacity anticipated a continuation KEY of the rapid development of a few years ago, growth that was largely driven by China and by • The costs of wind, solar, and battery the competitive costs of hydropower at the time. storage have dropped dramatically in Today however, the pace of development of new recent years. dams has slowed and the role of hydropower is • Investment in hydropower has been evolving. The declining costs of, and increased declining over the past five years, with investment in, solar, wind and storage — referred to 19 GW installed in 2017, less than as the renewable revolution — are creating a new half the level of 2013. Only pumped landscape for hydropower and for power systems in storage has been increasing during general. This chapter explores that revolution and this same time period. the changing role of hydropower, including how it can help catalyze the transition to power systems • Renewable sources represented two- that are low carbon and low impact. thirds of new global power generation capacity in 2018, led by wind (49 GW) and solar (94 GW). 3.1 TRENDS IN NEW RENEWABLES • The renewable energy revolution 3.1.1 Solar and wind: cost, capacity 3.1. Costs for wind and solar technologies does not signal an end to hydropower and investment Costs development, but a significant shift in Onshore wind Solar PV Offshore wind Concentrating solar power its role and competitive niche. Certain The costs for a range of renewable energy sources 0. types of hydropower are becoming have dropped dramatically in the past decade. For less competitive and the rise of example, the cost of solar photovoltaic electricity credible alternatives should diminish declined by 73% between 2010 and 2017 (Figure 0. 1 the need for high-impact dams. 3.1) . Because of these rapid changes in relative h
However, low-impact hydropower costs in recent years, the growth of renewable /k W plants that provide storage capabilities energy generation is now driven by investments 0.2 in new solar and wind capacity, while the growth
and flexibility could become an 1 US
important component of the world’s of traditional renewable technologies (such as 2 0 transition to deploying considerably hydropower, geothermal and biomass) is much 0.1 Fossil uel more intermittent renewable energies. slower (Figure 3.2). Other technologies, such as cost range concentrated solar power and ocean energies, are still too small in scale to make a major contribution, 0.0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10 12 1 1 1 10 12 1 1 1 10 12 1 1 10 12 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 although they too are poised for technological 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 innovation that may result in lower costs. 210 Auction database LCOE database Source IRE A Renewable Cost atabase and Auctions atabase There is some discussion about whether recent record low bids for solar and wind projects, around US$0.02/kWh in a number of countries, are realistic costs are in the process of reaching approximately US$0.05/kWh. and whether they credibly indicate a continued 3.1. The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and auction prices i From a systems point of view, integration costs may have to be added to the (winning bids) for projects already commissioned or contracted This is not only at the lower end of the fossil fuel cost range, purchase price to arrive at the true economic cost per kWh. However, there is trends toward lower costs.i However, all recent to be commissioned, between 2010 and 2022. For the key it is also equivalent to the average LCOE of hydropower.2 significant debate over methods to calculate integration costs, and they will
© Global Warming Images / WWF commercially available solar and wind technologies, average be very different depending on the power system in question. projections of solar and wind expansion have been
30 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 31 CHAPTER 3
India too conservative, and some observers expect costs scale or off-grid generation — and these applications Hippos in Stiegler’s Gorge on the Rufiji river in the Selous Game to further decline to approximately US$0.015/kWh, still have a role to play in accelerating energy access Reserve, a World Heritage Site in where a floor may be reached3. Rapid innovation — wind and solar have become a primary choice for Tanzania. The gorge is the site and fierce competition for market share, both by utility-scale power plants, capable of supplying major of a planned hydropower dam. manufacturers and developers, are expected to cities and industries. Because of these large additions continue. Countries that have established auction of wind and solar, renewable sources represented schemes have seen strong competition and lower two-thirds of new power generation capacity added costs, and so a proliferation of auction schemes globally in 2018.6 should contribute to continued downward cost trends Behind the rapid expansion of solar and wind are and more consumers benefiting from even lower technological advances and economies of scale power prices. that have driven down costs to competitive levels, The main explanation for the impressive drop in cost combined with policies that removed barriers and has been the massive scaling-up of the industry. opened markets to these new technologies. Subsidies Furthermore, compared to large civil engineering such as guaranteed feed-in tariffs are no longer projects — which commonly have cost overruns necessary in most countries and are being phased and delays owing to their complexity — wind and out. Léger et al. (2018) modeled the implications of solar projects benefit from far lower complexity in an auctions-as-reality scenario, with recent auction components and modularity, each of which facilitates prices instead of average prices for solar and wind, scalability of both construction and installation4. for Mexico, Germany, and India. In this scenario, solar and wind would replace gas and coal much earlier Increasingly, governments are accepting that wind than previously projected, leading to cumulative and solar technologies are a viable alternative, GHG emissions reductions until 2050 of 15% in and have included them in their national plans, Germany, 25% in India, and 30% in Mexico.8 created supportive regulatory frameworks, and made international commitments to promote them, The global potential for solar and wind is generally in particular through the Nationally Determined estimated to be on the order of several times the Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. current global power consumption, although in some countries land-use competition, public acceptance, As a consequence, investments in solar and wind have 11 resource quality and remoteness could eventually more detail in Chapter 5) . For example, solar panels dependent on the time of day and the weather. They overtaken all other power generation technologies, become constraints9. If poorly sited, the significant can be installed on buildings, over parking lots, on are location-specific, and some areas may experience leading to a rapid expansion of capacity. About expansion of wind and solar needed to meet climate industrial brownfield sites, or floating on reservoirs. extended times with minimal or low generation. 100 GW of solar PV and 50-60 GW of wind were objectives could have major impacts on natural Wind farms can be co-located with some types of Although generation can be predicted, such predictions installed globally in 2017, and again in 2018 (much 10 agriculture or installed in areas with low land values, — as well as the predictions for power demand — are 5 habitats and carbon storage . of it in China) . These are large-scale investments, or offshore in coastal waters where there are fewer never certain, and thus every power system needs to comparable to the entire power generation capacity However, Baruch-Mordo et al. (2018) found that most competing uses. In addition, to avoid additional power include other technologies besides solar and wind to of large countries like India (350 GW) or Japan (320 countries have sufficient availability of low-impact lines and reduce transmission costs, solar and wind balance supply and demand in the short term. GW). Although solar and wind generation were wind and/or solar to meet climate commitments and facilities can be sited adjacent to existing transmission originally associated with distributed, community- much of their future power demands (reviewed in At the early stages of solar and wind deployment, infrastructure. This kind of smart siting can also intermittency is not a major issue, as the existing power Recent growth in renewables by type reduce cumulative impacts, such as fragmentation of grid can easily accommodate the new generation the landscape, and there is now a growing body of 500 capacity. For the major regional grids in the United knowledge regarding optimization of siting of new solar States, around 30% solar and wind grid penetration ■ Hydropower ■ Wind ■ Solar and wind facilities, taking into account multiple criteria can be accommodated with minimal system changes13. 400 such as the quality of the resource, installation costs, As the share of solar and wind grows, however, system and environmental and social acceptability12. planners and operators are learning what investments
300 in the grid and operational adjustments they need 3.1.2 Integrating solar and wind into grids to ensure that balance is maintained. This is not a 3.2. Recent fundamentally new challenge, as they have always had growth in While cost and potential are unlikely to be major barriers 200 Capacity (GW) added to manage changing sources, varying loads and the renewables for the continued expansion of solar and wind power, possibility of interruptions in supply or transmission. by type there is a key difference between power generation
100 Global renewable in solar and wind farms and most other generation There are already a number of countries with high power capacity facilities. Solar and wind are not continuously available levels of variable renewables, which are all managing additions, 7 and dispatchable to meet the current power demand. intermittency and maintaining stable grids in their 0 2004-2023 2004–2008 2009–2013 2014-2018 2019–2023 (From IEA 2017) © Greg Armfield / WWF Instead, their generation is intermittent and variable, own ways. Denmark, for example, with almost 60%
32 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 33 CHAPTER 3 THE RENEWABLE REVOLUTION AND THE CHANGING ROLE FOR HYDROPOWER
Hydropower capacity additions ■ Conventional hydro ower ■ Pu ed storage wind projects, with a small number of biomass, expected to increase in many parts of the world, 5 ■ Total geothermal, gas, and other projects17. which poses risks for dam safety22. Linear (conventional) 0 Linear ( u ed storage) • Slowing orders for hydropower equipment • Cost and Schedule Overruns. It is well documented 5 3.3 Hydropower such as turbines. Equipment manufacturers report that hydropower projects globally have significant 18 0 capacity relatively low levels of orders, except for pumps . delivery risks in terms of costs and schedule — larger than for most other power technologies and 25 additions The increased investment in pumps confirms that other infrastructure sectors23. Delays translate into Newly installed 20 hydropower at least one sub-sector of hydropower appears to reduced financial viability because of increased GW added GW capacity, in GW/Year, 15 be resilient, if not growing — pumped storage, a interest payments during construction, increased 2012-201715 technology that can facilitate increasing share of payments to contractors to maintain their presence 10 variable renewables(Figure 3.3)19. on site, delayed revenues, and in some cases, 5 penalties for not meeting contractual delivery ydro ower Ca acity Additions (in GW/year) ydro ower 0 3.2.2 Underlying reasons for declining requirements. Delayed power deliveries also carry 2012 201 201 2015 201 201 investment risks for consumers and economies.
Global economic growth has slowed down • Technical Problems. Although hydropower projects variable renewables, relies on its integration with decisions or project approvals, which would allow considerably in the last 10 years. In combination with have been built for more than a century, significant the large European grid, including hydropower- projections for future capacity additions. While a structural shift to service industries and more engineering challenges remain. The recent dominated Norway. simple extrapolations from recent trends should be efficient use of electricity (e.g., in appliances and dam failure at the Xe-Pian Xe-Namnoy project viewed with caution, there are some indications that While intermittency may be the main concern industrial processes), the pace of growth in power in Laos, which likely killed hundreds of people investment in conventional hydropower may continue with solar and wind generation, there are also other demand is waning. This has led to a slowdown in and displaced thousands more, and large-scale to decline: technical issues that need to be resolved. System power generation investments, across all technologies. technical difficulties at the 2,400 MW Ituango planners and operators will be concerned with • High-profile cancellations. More specifically for hydropower, there are a number project in Colombia, illustrate some of these so-called “ancillary power services,” such as Recent years have seen multiple projects being of reasons why investment is falling: technical challenges. In Bhutan, geological issues short-term frequency and voltage regulation, and suspended and cancelled, some by developers have resulted in average costs more than doubling black start capability (restoring an electric power and some by governments. High-profile recent • Water Resource Management Challenges. between the DPR stage (detailed project report, station or a part of an electric grid to operation after examples — including Myitsone (Myanmar), With rising populations and demand for water for the basis for investment decisions) and project a total or partial shutdown without relying on the HidroAysén (Chile), and São Luiz do Tapajós a variety of purposes, including environmental and completion24. external electric power transmission network), (Brazil) — represent an aggregate of US$1.3 aesthetic purposes, the allocation of water and • . Resistance against which can be provided by different generation billion in stranded investments and 18 GW of river reaches to hydropower, and water storage in Increasing Social Resistance large infrastructure in lower income countries, and transmission technologies. Hydropower has a undeveloped capacity16. There are currently only dams in general, is increasingly being challenged. including hydropower projects, is primarily due strong role to play in providing grid stability. a few large projects under construction that will Global active reservoir capacity has been declining to fears of social disruption, displacement, and enter operations in coming yearsii. because of the slower addition of new capacity 3.2 TRENDS IN HYDROPOWER and sedimentation of reservoirs20. A contributing inadequate compensation, while in richer countries • Policy decisions against hydropower. factor has been that investment in surface irrigation, it is typically linked to environmental concerns, in Several countries have drastically reduced the 3.2.1 Recent downturn in investment which often involves dams, has been in a long-term particular the loss of wilderness areas. Concerns targets for new hydropower investments in The scale of hydropower development has risen and decline as the most suitable areas have already about costs and safety can also play a role. Such their master plans, and political leaders in these fallen several times in its long history. Regionally, been developed21. controversies are another factor leading to project construction booms shifted from North America countries have signaled that hydropower may no delays and have contributed to the high-profile Brazil, East Africa, and Europe in the 1950s-1970s to South America longer be a priority. • Increasing Hydrological Risks. suspensions and cancellations mentioned above. and California are just some examples of regions and, later, East Asia in the 1990s-2010s. In the past few • Performance in recent auctions. that keep experiencing droughts, which affect • Best Sites Already Taken. The increasing difficulties years, there has been a significant global downturn Many countries now use auctions or similar for developers are also related to the fact in hydropower development, largely driven by hydropower generation. Depending on the share competitive market mechanisms to select the that, in many regions, the best sites have been China nearing the end of its hydropower expansion of hydropower in the generation mix, this can lead lowest-cost generation projects for future supply. developed and the remaining sites are less than program, with no corresponding increase in investment to curtailment of power supplies and significant Hydropower developers find it increasingly ideal. This depends, obviously, on the extent to elsewhere to offset the decline (Figures 3.2 and 3.3). economic losses. The expectation is that such difficult to compete against other types of which regions have developed their potential. The most recent data from IRENA show that this droughts will become more frequent with climate projects in these auctions. For example, in 2017, Africa has many more good sites left than North trend continued in 201814. change, and the seasonality of flows will become hydropower accounted for a combined 33 MW more pronounced and less predictable. Some America, for example. In Brazil’s Amazon, its “last These data show the completion of projects and out of 2,085 MW awarded in auctions in Brazil and basins, such as the Zambezi, are expected to see hydropower frontier,” government perspectives commissioning of new capacity. As such, they reflect Argentina, just 1.6% of the total, while in Chile significant declines in average runoff, average have now shifted against large dams as there are past investment decisions, typically 5-10 years and Mexico, no hydropower was selected through generation and firm generation. Furthermore, the fewer attractive sites available that would not ago. Few data are available on current investment auctions. Most winning bids came from solar and magnitude and frequency of large flood events is affect protected areas and indigenous lands and ii Projects above 1 GW include Baihetan (China, 16 GW), Wudongde (China, 10.2 GW), Grand Renaissance Dam (Ethiopia, 6.45 GW), Rogun (Tajikistan, 3.6 GW), Ituango (Colombia, 2.4 GW), Xayaburi (Laos, 1.285 GW), Site C (Canada, 1.1 GW).
34 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 35 CHAPTER 3
The Richard B. Russell Dam on the Savannah River (Georgia, USA) added four
25 75 MW reversible turbines, require long transmission lines . China’s leaders Over the last twenty years, the sector — led by the allowing it to pump back and are coming to similar conclusions, as most of the International Hydropower Association (IHA) — store water from the reservoir cascades on major rivers such as the Yangtze and has tried to enhance sustainability at the project of the Strom Thurmond Dam, which is backed Lancang are nearing completion. level, reduce risks, and improve reputation and up to its base. public acceptance29. Some progress has been • Increasing Hydropower Costs. While costs for made but widespread acceptance of best practices wind and solar have been declining, average by the industry has been slow and this has hydropower costs have been gradually increasing contributed to continuing conflicts and rising costs. over the past decade. Between 2010 and 2017, Opposition to hydropower development has average total installed cost increased from 1,171 become quite entrenched in a number of countries. to 1,535 US$/kw and LCOE increased from US$0.04/kWh to US$0.05/kWh, with costs spread There are also inherent limitations to improvements over a fairly wide range26. The shift to less ideal at the project level. For hydropower to have a sites and general inflation in the construction sustainable future in the renewable revolution, it sector are two of the key factors behind these can only be managed effectively at a system rising costs. level. Various tools and methods exist to guide better selection of hydropower projects, minimize ENDNOTES & Energy Magazine. 61-73. Retrieved from: http:// 23 Ansar, Atif, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, 30 3.2.3 Sustainable hydropower for cumulative impacts, and maximize benefits . ipu.msu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/IEEE- et al. (2014): “Should we build more large dams? 1 IRENA (2019): “Renewable Capacity Statistics 2019.” Achieving-a-100-Renewable-Grid-2017.pdf The actual costs of hydropower megaproject the future While implementation is still at an early stage, International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 14 IRENA 2019; see note 1. development.” Energy Policy 69: 43-56; E.Y. (2016): and rarely required by governments, there are Abu Dhabi. Retrieved from: https://www.irena.org/ 15 IHA. Hydropower Status Reports (various years). “Spotlight on power and utility megaprojects – The renewable energy landscape is shifting, with publications/2019/Mar/Capacity-Statistics-2019 Retrieved from: https://www.hydropower.org/ formulas for success.” Retrieved from: http://www. emerging cases demonstrating the value and 2 IRENA 2019; see note 1. publications; Data for 2012 are from IRENA. ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/ey-spotlight-on- new renewables presenting both a challenge and 3 opportunity from approaching hydropower Merchant, Emma Foehringer (2018): “The floor for 16 Opperman, J., J. Hartmann, J. Raepple, H. Angarita, power-and-utility-megaprojects/$FILE/eyspotlight- a potential opportunity for hydropower. Certain ultra-low solar bids? $14 per megawatt-hour: Is P. Beames. E. Chapin, R. Geressu, G. Grill, J. Harou, on-power-and-utility-megaprojects.pdf planning at the system-scale. there room for prices to fall? The answer is ‘yes’.” A. Hurford, D. Kammen, R. Kelman, E. Martin, T. 24 Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan (2017): Annual types of hydropower are becoming less competitive Green Tech Media. Retrieved from: https://www. Martins, R. Peters, C. Rogéliz, and R. Shirley. (2017): Report 2016/17. Retrieved from: https://www.rma. and potentially not necessary. However, low-impact Better still is the opportunity to assess greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-floor-for- “The Power of Rivers: A Business Case.” The Nature org.bt/RMA%20Publication/Annual%20Report/ ultra-low-solar-bids-14-per-megawatt-hour Conservancy: Washington, D.C annual%20report%20%202016-2017.pdf hydropower plants that provide storage capabilities hydropower in conjunction with new renewable 4 Sovacool et al (2014): “Risk, innovation, electricity 17 Morais, Lucas (2017): “Brazil awards 674,5 MW in 25 Electric Light & Power (2014): “Brazil’s hydropower deployment. Countries should consider developing infrastructure and construction cost overruns: renewables auction, solar dominates.” Renewables potential may be completely tapped by and flexibility could become an important component Testing six hypotheses.” Energy 74, 906-917. Now. Retrieved from: https://renewablesnow. 2030.” Retrieved from: https://www.elp.com/ of the world’s transition to deploying considerably new hydropower primarily to complement and 5 IRENA (2018): “Renewable Power Generation com/news/brazil-awards-6745-mw-in-renewables- articles/2014/09/brazil-s-hydropower-potential-may- Costs in 2017.” International Renewable Energy auction-solar-dominates-594994/ ; Morais, Lucas be-completely-tapped-by-2030.html more intermittent renewable energies. support the deployment of low-impact wind and Agency, Abu Dhabi. Retrieved from: https://www. (2017a): “Argentina awards 1.41 GW in RenovAR 2 MercoPress (2018): “Brazil announces end of solar. In places where hydropower already exists irena.org/publications/2018/Jan/Renewable-power- tender.” Renewables Now. Retrieved from: https:// building big hydroelectric dams in Amazon Whether there is a specific need or not, such generation-costs-in-2017 renewablesnow.com/news/argentina-awards-141- basin.” Retrieved from: https://en.mercopress. on a grid, there may be no need to develop 6 IRENA (2019); https://www.irena.org/ gw-in-renovar-2-tender-592874/; Arturom (2017): com/2018/01/08/brazil-announces-end-of-building- dedicated back-up and energy storage plants will additional projects, but instead re-operate or publications/2019/Mar/Capacity-Statistics-2019 Mexico’s Third Long-Term Electricity Auction: big-hydroelectric-dams-in-amazon-basin only be built where there are specific markets or 7 IEA (2017): “Solar leads the charge in another record The Results and the Comparison.” Renewable 26 IRENA 2018; see note 4. retrofit existing assets. Eventually, while existing year for renewables.” Retrieved from: https://www. Energy Mexico. Retrieved from: http://www. 27 IEA (2018): “Hydropower: Tracking Clean Energy specific regulatory requirements for the services they iea.org/renewables2017/ renewableenergymexico.com/mexicos-third- Progress.” Retrieved from: https://www.iea.org/ plants will remain operational for many years, 8 provide, and many countries have not yet created Léger et al (2018): “What if the latest wind and solar long-term-electricity-auction-the-results-and-the- tcep/power/renewables/hydropower/ hydropower capacity will decline as more projects auction results were the new reality of electricity comparison/ ; Azzopardi, Tom (2017): Renewables 28 Singh, Rajesh Kumar, S. Srivastava (2018): “India such frameworks, or do not yet have sufficient price prices?” McKinsey & Company. Retrieved from: push prices to record low in Chile tender.” Considers Ways to Lower Hydropower Tariffs.” will be decommissioned because of increased https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/ differentials between peak and off-peak power. Wind Power Monthly. Retrieved from: https:// Bloomberg. Retrieved from: https://www. awareness of the impacts, reservoir sedimentation, our-insights/what-if-the-latest-wind-and-solar- www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1449200/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-21/india-is- A number of potential pumped storage projects auction-results-were-the-new-reality-of-electricity- renewables-push-prices-record-low-chile-tender said-to-consider-ways-to-lower-hydropower-tariffs and the high costs of maintaining safe operations. prices 18 Johnson, Greg (2017): “Tough Times Ahead for Gas, 29 International Hydropower Association (IHA) in Europe are currently on hold, for example, as 9 Deng, Yvonne Y., M. Haigh, W. Pouwels, L. Steam and Hydro Turbine Suppliers.” IHS Markit. (2010): “Hydropower Sustainability Assessment companies are waiting to see how power markets What is becoming clear is that the vision of Ramaekers, R. Brandsma, S. Schimschar, J. Retrieved from: https://technology.ihs.com/590466/ Protocol.” International Hydropower Association. Grözinger, D. de Jager (2015): “Quantifying a tough-times-ahead-for-gas-steam-and-hydro- London, England. Retrieved from: http://www. will evolve. In the meantime, alternative storage low-carbon, reliable, accessible, affordable, and realistic, worldwide wind and solar electricity turbine-suppliers hydrosustainability.org/IHAHydro4Life/media/PDFs/ supply.” Elsevier. Global Environmental Change. 19 IEA (2018): “World Energy Investment 2018: Protocol/hydropower-sustainability-assessment- technologies and other solutions to intermittency low-impact power systems is increasingly attainable. 239-252. Retrieved from: https://core.ac.uk/ Investing in our energy future.” Retrieved from: protocol_web.pdf. may also be reaching levels of maturity and cost- The remainder of this report will describe download/pdf/82198285.pdf https://www.iea.org/wei2018/ 30 Opperman et al. 2017; (see note 16). The Nature 10 Joseph Kiesecker, Sharon Baruch-Mordo, Christina 20 Wisser, Dominik, S. Frolking, S. Hagen, M. F. P. Conservancy (2018): “Hydropower by Design: A competitiveness that make hydropower unnecessary. pathways to achieve that vision. M. Kennedy, James R. Oakleaf, Alessandro Baccini, Bierkens (2013): “Beyond peak reservoir storage? A Guide.” Washington, D.C., USA. ; Ledec, George, and Bronson W. Griscom. (Submitted). Hitting global estimate of declining water storage capacity and Juan Quintero (2003): “Good Dams and Bad The International Energy Agency (IEA) is concerned the target but missing the mark: unintended in large reservoirs.” Water Resources Research, Vol. Dams.” Environmental Criteria for Site Selection consequences of the Paris climate agreement. 49. Issue 9. 5732-5739. of Hydroelectric Projects. The World Bank. Latin that the current low levels of investment in Environmental Science and Policy. 21 Renner (2012): “Area Equipped for Irrigation at America and Caribbean Region Sustainable hydropower may not be sufficient for it to fulfill its 11 Baruch-Mordo, S., Kiesecker, J., Kennedy, C.M., Record Levels, But Expansion Slows.” Worldwatch Development Working Paper 16: 21.; WWF, ADB, Oakleaf, J.R. and Opperman, J.J., (2018): “From Institute. Retrieved from: http://vitalsigns. MRC (2010): “Rapid Sustainability Assessment potential role in facilitating the expansion of variable Paris to practice: sustainable implementation of worldwatch.org/vs-trend/area-equipped-irrigation- Tool.” Retrieved from: http://www.mrcmekong.org/ renewables27. Some governments, including India’s, renewable energy goals. Environmental Research record-levels-expansion-slows assets/Publications/Reports/RSAT-Revision-3-for- Letters.” 22 Hirabayashi, Y., Mahendran, R., Koirala, S., printingOCT-3-2010-Corrected-FINAL.PDF are considering ways to subsidize hydropower so it 12 Kiesecker, J., Copeland, H., Pocewicz, A., and Konoshima, L., Yamazaki, D., Watanabe, S., Kim, McKenney, B. (2010): “Development by design: 28 H. and Kanae, S., (2013): “Global flood risk under can remain competitive and fulfill that role . Such blending landscape level planning with the climate change.” Nature Climate Change, 3(9), p.816; reforms are made more difficult, however, by mixed mitigation hierarchy.” Frontiers in Ecology and Beilfuss, R. (2012): “A risky climate for southern Environment 8, 261–6. African hydro”. International Rivers. Retrieved from: public perceptions of the hydropower sector. 13 Kroposki, B., B. Johnson, Y. Zhang, V. Gevorgian, https://www.internationalrivers.org/sites/default/ P. Denholm, B. Hodge, B. Hannegan. (2017): files/attached-files/zambezi_climate_report_final.
© Jonas Jordan Jordan Jonas © “Achieving a 100% Renewable Grid.” IEEE Power pdf
36 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 37 4 Chapter
ACHIEVING LOW CARBON, © Dave Lauridsen LOW IMPACT GRIDS
38 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 39 THE VISION
Chapter 4
In this chapter, we explore the technical feasibility of low-carbon, low-cost and low-impact power systems through descriptions of the modeling and planning methods that can be used to design grids. We then summarize modeling studies that illustrate power systems that achieve these three objectives.
The environmental performance of a power system KEY POINTS is partly influenced by grid-scale properties, such as the mix of different generation sources: a grid with a large proportion of coal will have • Capacity expansion models can be used poor performance on greenhouse gases, a grid to explore the technical and economic dominated by hydropower is more likely to have feasibility of power systems that are low carbon and low impact. high impacts on rivers. But much about the environmental performance of a power system • Using capacity expansion models requires understanding how projects perform within for Chile and Uganda, we explored a landscape. For example, where a project is sited scenarios that were low carbon and has a particularly strong influence on it environmental included protections for specific rivers: and social performance. Thus, to round out this free-flowing rivers (Chile) and rivers examination of how to achieve sustainable power within national parks (Uganda). The systems, this chapter also reviews best practices for river protection scenarios had either no project siting for renewable energy sources, along effect on cost (Uganda) or a very small with best practices for the design and operation for effect (Chile, 1-2% more expensive) hydropower projects and systems. compared to business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. The low-carbon, low-impact Planning a power system that can meet the three scenarios for Chile had one-quarter of sustainability objectives will require an integration the carbon intensity, with thousands of these scales: capacity expansion models to select more kilometers of free-flowing rivers components of a system, coupled with design the likelihood of being able to satisfy loads at any Within a traditional power system, generation given time. A more reliable system is typically more units such as fossil fuel plants, hydropower, solar remaining compared to the BAU. and planning processes to guide where and how expensive to build and operate, since it usually PV, wind, and geothermal power are located far those components interact with the landscape. This • A range of best practices can be used requires redundant infrastructure available in case from load centers, usually because of geographic integration could be iterative, such as a capacity to avoid and/or minimize impacts an outage happens. In terms of cost, power systems or environmental constraints. Their output is expansion process to designate targets for wind, from hydropower, encompassing: (1) have historically kept costs low by generating then transported through high-voltage transmission solar and hydropower and then landscape-scale rehabilitating and retrofitting existing electricity with cheap fossil fuels, without internalizing lines that bring electricity close to cities. At that planning processes to guide site selection for the hydropower dams, re-operating dams pollution costs. As fossil fuel costs fluctuate, and point, voltage is reduced and a local distribution and cascades, and adding turbines to projects that can meet the targets. But both scales other technologies and strategies have become system is utilized to bring power to end-users. non—powered dams; (2) planning for are ultimately based on quantifying the tradeoffs of economically competitive, the selection of an optimal This traditional system used to be one-way — low-impact hydropower development different options — in terms of performance across portfolio has become much more challenging. from generation to load — but the adoption of and operation within energy and water- financial, economic and environmental criteria — and Planners need increasingly sophisticated power distributed energy resources, such as rooftop management systems; and (3) design so, ideally, they would be integrated. system models and processes to assess all the solar PV, is producing flows in the opposite and operation of individual dams. potential combinations, and trade-offs, of existing direction with complex consequences. • Blending application of the mitigation 4.1 POWER SYSTEMS AND PLANNING and new technologies. The challenge of meeting demand at all times hierarchy with regional development FOR A LOW-CARBON, LOW-COST, Electricity grids are among the most complicated comes from its uncertain temporal variation. planning for new wind and solar projects AND LOW-IMPACT GRID systems that people have invented. The operation At any given second, millions of consumers are can reduce impacts and conflicts, Power systems need to balance three dimensions of a power system requires an almost instantaneous turning devices and processes on and off, causing improve conservation outcomes, that are in tension with each other: cost, reliability, balance of supply and demand across vast demand to fluctuate. At the same time, generation and facilitate faster permitting and and environmental and social performance. Reliability geographical areas that are linked through large from variable resources as wind and solar is also development.
is a property of the electricity grid that describes © Dave Lauridsen transmission and distribution systems (Figure 4.1). changing rapidly. The system has to adapt quickly
40 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 41 CHAPTER 4 THE VISION
4.1. Electricity supply chains Traditional electricity supply chain 2. Space: These models should also explicitly Traditional electricity supply chain reflect the spatial properties of the resources Traditional and the load, and the associated transmission requirements.
Adequate time and space representations are especially relevant for holistic system-level analysis of Generation Transmission Distribution Consumption
Generation Transmission Distribution Consumption hydropower resources.
BOX 4.1
„ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „
ENERGY FLOW „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„ 1. Time: Hydropower plays an important role in „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ ENERGY FLOW „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ ENERGY FLOW „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„ „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„ MONETARY FLOW power systems because it can rapidly adjust SARAWAK MONETARY FLOW its output to compensate for variations in load or from variable generation, such as wind and In Malaysia, the state government of New paradigm of the energy supply chain solar power, often within minutes. Hydropower Sarawak is implementing a development New paradigm of the energy supply chain output can exhibit substantial monthly variations program called the Sarawak Corridor of New paradigm of the electricity supply chain Information flow Aggregators between wet and dry seasons, particularly for Renewable Energy (SCORE) with a predominant Information flow Information flow AggregatorsAggregators Battery storage smaller reservoirs and run-of-river projects. Finally, emphasis on hydropower. BatteryBattery storagestorage hydrological cycles affect production in the long istributed S art generation charging term, with the extreme case of drought severely At least two coal power plants and 12 large S art istributed istributed S artS art eters generationgeneration chargingcharging S artS art curtailing performance. hydroelectric dams, with projected total eters eters generation equivalent to 8 times required demand,
2. Space: Each hydropower project has context- were scheduled to be built before 2030. However,
Generation Transmission Distribution Prosumers specific impacts and therefore should be
„ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ full development of these projects would cause
Generation Transmission Distribution Prosumers „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „
Generation „ Transmission Distribution Prosumers represented at the project-level rather than „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „
„ significant social and environmental impacts,
„ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „
„ ENERGY FLOW aggregated. At the same time, a system-level
„ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ ENERGY FLOW „„„„„„„„„„ including the displacement of approximately „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ ENERGY FLOW „„„„„„„„„„ MONETARY FLOW „„„„„„„„„„ analysis requires identifying the river and basin 100,000 indigenous people and the loss of at least MONETARY FLOW „„„„„„„„„„ MONETARY FLOW „„„„„„„„„„ where a hydropower project is located. 2,425 square kilometers of direct forest cover.
There are several models and planning exercises Researchers at RAEL adapted a long-term energy 4.1. Traditional and new paradigms for electricity supply chains. (adapted from IRENA, 2019)1 that demonstrate that sustainable grids are simulation and analysis tool and demonstrated technically and economically feasible. Williams et al. its use in comparing energy options in Sarawak. Results for medium- and high-demand growth (2015) demonstrate that deep decarbonization up rates show that 2030 demand can be fully met to these changes to perform at desired levels of • Scenario analysis or other forms of exploring to 80% of 1990 GHG emissions for the US economy and generally exceeded with existing and under- reliability. These adaptive actions are called ancillary the evolution of the system under varying is technically possible using existing commercial construction dams (Bakun and Murum). Alternative services, which can be provided by adjustable assumptions of cost, prices, policies, and technologies. They find that achieving these levels by scenarios show that decentralized generation generators — such as hydropower, but not solar PV technological progress. 2050 would cost less than 1% of GDP2. A study of the sources, including PV and biomass, could be — or more recently by load that can be disconnected Western US show that decarbonization of the power combined to meet future demand. Under lower on a real-time basis. • A basic representation of the generation sector to half of 1990 levels can be achieved with future renewable resource costs, the system and transmission-distribution system, including existing technologies with less than a 20% increase As power systems grew more complex, long-term could be primarily based on biomass and solar PV, operational and investment decisions subject to in system costs. Researchers have proved that planning processes were developed to grapple with no conventional generation required. meeting certain levels of reliability, emissions, renewable energy-based systems can reliably supply with reliability requirements. Most recently, the impact, and others. a power system for 99.9% of the time, and another In 2015, the government announced a moratorium demand for climate change mitigation has led to study even suggested 100% renewable pathways on the Baram Dam, largely in response to local and complex policy questions around decarbonizing There are two particular dimensions that long-term for around 140 countries3. international pressure. On March 21, 2016 a legal the system: what technologies should be used, and planning power systems models should represent decision to solidify this position was announced: when and where should they be deployed? Planners At a more granular level, the Renewable and adequately: the Government of Sarawak reaffirmed indigenous developed forward-looking models that had several Appropriate Energy Laboratory (RAEL) at the ownership of the land for the dam site, reversing 1. Time: Planning models for sustainable grids components: University of California, Berkeley, has demonstrated a previous classification that would have allowed should reflect the challenges of hourly balancing the feasibility of sustainable and affordable pathways • A set of load forecasts that represent policy- the development to proceed. This decision of the system, but also account for long temporal for power systems in several regions. For Sarawak in relevant scenarios of how residential, commercial, demonstrated that communities can advocate scales that describe the evolution of the system Malaysia, RAEL found that a suite of decentralized industrial, and transportation consumers effectively to protect their interests and that over several decades. In addition, it is important strategies based on clean technologies would would grow. science communication can play a substantial to capture the natural synergies of resources and avoid the need for a large dam, which would have © WWF-Malaysia / Mazidi Abd Ghani role in supporting these advocacy efforts. • A portfolio of existing resources and potential load. For example, solar PV generation is typically displaced indigenous communities (Box 4.1)4. For technologies, including supply and demand side. coincident with demand for air conditioning. Kosovo, alternative clean energy pathways were
42 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 43 ACHIEVING LOW CARBON, LOW IMPACT GRIDS CHAPTER 4
more affordable and much more sustainable than For Chile, we ran two scenarios to compare with 4.2. Cost difference a projected coal plant5. For Laos, large-scale BAU to explore how protecting free-flowing rivers 8 hydropower development had a higher risk of cost (FFR; see Box 2.1) would affect expansion of the Cost differencesA. Chile Chile CostB. Uganda differences Uganda overruns while renewable technologies such as solar power system. Neither of these two scenarios were able to meet projected demand (both domestic allowed additional coal generation and they included Basin-constrainedLow impact hydro scenario — basin Free-flowingLow impact hydro river — river Protect rivers inscenario National Parks constrained scenario and export) at a lower total cost of investment (see constraints on hydropower based on the potential more details in Section 7.4)6. policy goal of maintaining FFRs. 15 15
Researchers at RAEL have also developed extensive 1. Basin-constrained scenario (“basin”) does not analyses for sustainable and affordable power system allow new projects within undeveloped basins 10 10 pathways for the Western US, Chile, Nicaragua, (i.e., it only allows new hydropower to be Kenya, China, and Uganda employing the SWITCH developed in basins with current operational model (see Box 4.2). In this report, the SWITCH projects: about 35% of potential hydropower 5 5 model was used to explore in more depth low impact plants remain eligible). hydropower and low-carbon pathways for two of 0 0 these regions: Chile and Uganda. 2. Free-flowing river-constrained scenario (“FFR”) does not allow new projects on rivers that meet
the criteria for being free-flowing (about 15% of 5 5 MODELING RESULTS FOR CHILE reference hydropower plants remain eligible). AND UGANDA For Uganda, we ran one scenario to explore how 10 10 In the analyses for both Uganda and Chile, reference a policy that protects rivers within protected areas scenarios (reported as “business-as-usual” or BAU) from hydropower development would affect are built using the original assumptions for each Cost di erence with res ect to BAU ($2015/MWh) 15 15 expansion of the power system. The BAU had model7. The analysis period runs from 2025 to 2045 selected two projects on the Victoria Nile from the in the case of Chile and from 2020 to 2045 in the portfolio of potential hydropower sites, both of 2025 20 5 20 5 2025 20 5 20 5 2025 20 5 20 5 case of Uganda. which are located within Murcheson Falls National Investment period Investment period Investment period Park. A “protected area” scenario removed these ■ Generation Ca acity ■ Generation Fuel and variable ■ ew trans ission ca acity BOX 4.2 two sites as options. Throughout the rest of the results section, we refer A. Cost difference between B. Cost difference between a to the non-BAU scenarios collectively as low-carbon, low-carbon, low-impact scenarios scenario that protects rivers in THE SWITCH and the reference scenario, by national parks and the reference LONG-TERM low-impact or LCLI when necessary. Note that period and cost type, for Chile. scenario, by period and cost PLANNING MODEL here we are using “low impact” as shorthand for type, for Uganda. “increasing protection for, and reducing impacts The SWITCH model was developed and on, rivers” acknowledging that nearly all energy is maintained by the Renewable and projects have some impacts. In the case of Uganda, the “protected area” scenario Uganda, respectively, for the reference and LCLI Appropriate Energy Laboratory (RAEL) at has nearly equivalent costs as the reference scenario scenarios. In both countries there is a common the University of California, Berkeley. Costs (Figure 4.2B). pattern for the LCLI pathways: solar PV and energy storage can substitute for almost all of the non- For both regions, the scenarios that limited The cost structure change between the LCLI SWITCH is an algorithm that estimates deployed hydropower. the least-cost investment decisions to hydropower to protect either free-flowing rivers or scenarios and the reference scenario for Chile is expand a power system subject to meeting national parks are only 0% to 2% more expensive dominated by reduced expenditure in fuel and The reference or BAU scenario for Chile includes a load forecast and a host of operational than the reference scenarios, based on Net Present variable costs, and increased expenditure in capital. substantial expansion of coal power from 4 GW in constraints. The model concurrently Value (NPV). We report the cost difference between This reallocation of expenditures can have important the first period to over 17 GW by 2045 (Figure 4.3). optimizes installation and operation of the reference scenario and each of the LCLI scenarios macroeconomic consequences, as reduced purchases Hydropower has a much slower expansion, increasing generation units, transmission lines, storage, by specific cost categories (generation capacity, of imported fuels affects exchange rates, makes by around 35% during the analysis period. Natural and the distribution system, while meeting fuel costs, and transmission costs). We also report the region less exposed to fuel-price volatility, and gas-based generation increases threefold, in part realistic operational and policy constraints. the net cost for easier interpretation (see black line in increases energy security. due to its role in integrating renewable resources. Despite the fossil fuel expansion, the carbon intensity SWITCH employs very high spatial and Figure 4.2). In the case of Chile, the two LCLI of the system remains relatively stable at 0.3 tCO2/ temporal resolution for each region scenarios yield very similar cost increase profiles Investment decisions MWh, although it does double on a per capita basis analyzed, allowing for an improved (see Figure 4.2.A). Costs for the “basin” scenario are Capacity deployment decisions describe the (Table 4.1). representation of variable resources like 1.5% higher than the reference scenario, by about evolution of low-carbon and low-impact power wind, solar, and storage. US$1.6/MWh. Costs for the “FFR” scenario are 2.1% systems. Figures 4.3 and 4.4 show the evolution For the LCLI scenarios, by 2025, the model deploys a higher than the reference, by about $2.2/MWh. of the power system technology mix for Chile and combination of natural gas, solar PV, and wind power
44 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 45 CHAPTER 4 ACHIEVING LOW CARBON, LOW IMPACT GRIDS
4.3. Installed capacity – Chile to substitute for hydropower and coal. However, by whereas the “basin” scenario has about half of Installed capacity Chile 2045 about two thirds of installed capacity is solar PV that level of impact in terms of kilometers (1,960 km) in both LCLI scenarios, compared to one third in the with 14 rivers no longer meeting the criteria for BAU Basin-constrainedLCLI - basin constrained scenario scenario BAU Low impact hydro basin Low impact hydro river reference scenario, with renewables reaching 84% of being free-flowing. By design, the “FFR” scenario 1 0 generation. Carbon intensity for both LCLI scenarios has no impacts on FFR (note, however, that some are one-quarter of that of the BAU (Table 4.1). In the impacts will occur on the non-FFR rivers where new same period, there is roughly three times more energy projects are built). storage deployed in the LCLI scenarios compared to 120 In Chile, protecting rivers and restricting new the reference scenario. This highlights the relevance projects to those affecting basins or rivers that have of relying on a suite of different technologies for already been developed and fragmented leads to a sustainable growth, sequencing them as they different set of projects being selected compared to 0 become commercially and technically available. the reference scenario. This process reveals that even The reference scenario for Uganda has a very low with protective policies, there remains a portfolio of
carbon intensity (<0.05 tCO2/MWh) and includes hydropower projects that can still be cost-effectively 0 expansion of hydropower towards the final period, developed. Most of the projects selected in the Total ca acity in eriod GW reaching a total of 2.1 GW from an initial 1.5 GW. LCLI scenarios are also developed in the reference Geothermal power and natural gas expansion also scenario, which means that the cost impact of these 0 play a significant role, reaching over 1.5 GW and 1 river protection constraints is very small. While in this 2025 20 5 20 5 2025 20 5 20 5 2025 20 5 20 5 GW by 2045, respectively. In the “protected area” analysis we used very simple rules (e.g., no dams on 4.3.Installed capacity scenario, solar PV and storage replace the two Invest ent eriod Invest ent eriod Invest entfor reference eriod (BAU) and FFR), in an actual application more-comprehensive a scenario that avoided hydropower plants within the national park that are approaches could be used to compare the tradeoffs new dams in undeveloped installed in the reference scenario (Figure 4.4). and performance of different options to optimize ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ basins (basin-constrained Coal Geother al ydro ydro RoR atural Gas between river protection and power objectives scenario) for Chile by Figure 4.5 shows rivers and hydropower projects ■ Oil ■ Other Ren ■ Solar P ■ Storage ■ Wind period and technology (see Section 4.2). in southern Chile, including those that meet the
criteria for being free-flowing, those that are already In Uganda, the results indicate that avoiding affected by existing dams (non-FFR rivers) and building new hydropower projects in a national park those that become affected by new dams in the has essentially no influence on the costs of the various scenarios (and become non-FFR). Directing power system. 4.4.Installed Installed capacity capacity Uganda – Uganda hydropower away from undeveloped rivers reduces the impacts on FFR in Chile. Under the BAU, 58 free- 4.2 HYDROPOWER WITHIN A BAUBAU ProtectLCLI rivers scenarioNo hydro flowing rivers, totaling 3,850 km, are dammed and SUSTAINABLE GRID 12 no longer meet the criteria for being free-flowing, Hydropower is a dominant current source of electricity for many countries and, for grids undergoing expansion, is one of the options that can provide the Table 4.1 Capacity, generation, and carbon intensity of the energy services needed to enable an increasing share various scenarios for Chile and Uganda. of variable renewable sources within a grid. Decisions
Chile Uganda BAU Basin-constrained River-constrained BAU “protected areas”
Total generation by 2045 Capacity (GW) 108 160.4 161.8 9.4 10.9 Total ca acity in eriod GW Production (TWh) 344 374.2 375.1 15.5 15.5
Total renewable energy by 2045
0 Capacity (MW) 64 108.8 109.6 6.2 7.5 2020 2025 20 0 20 5 20 0 20 5 2020 2025 20 0 20 5 20 0 20 5 Production (TWh) 198 313.8 314.7 14.5 14.5
Invest ent eriod Invest entInvestment eriod period Renewables share of total production (%) 58% 84% 84% 94% 94% 4.4. Installed capacity for reference (BAU) and a scenario Total hydropower generation by 2045 (TWh) 35 22.6 19.1 6.1 4.6 ■ Coal ■ Geother al ■ ydro ■ ydro RoR ■ atural Gas that protected rivers in Carbon intensity by 2045 (kgCO2/MWh) 0.305 0.075 0.075 0.039 0.036 national parks (Protect rivers ■ Oil ■ Other Ren ■ Solar P ■ Storage ■ Wind scenario) for Uganda by Emissions per capita (kgCO2/person) 4.86 1.30 1.30 0.01 0.01 period and technology
46 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 47 CHAPTER 4 ACHIEVING LOW CARBON, LOW IMPACT GRIDS
4.5. Free-flowing rivers in Chile under different development scenarios Rehabilitating, retrofitting, or rebuilding existing hydropower dams could add an additional 134 ChileChileChile scenarios scenarios scenariosscenariosChile scenariosChile scenarios hydropower dams. Retrofitting older hydropower dams TWh/year to global electricity generation without BAU scenario BAU scenarioBasin scenarioBAU scenarioBasin scenarioRiver scenarioBasin scenarioRiver scenario River scenario with modern equipment can increase generation 16 BAUBAUBAU scenario scenario scenario ! BasinBasinBasin scenario scenario scenario! ! ! ! RiverRiverRiver scenario scenario scenario! any new structures in rivers . Using the same methods, ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ew !da s ew! da s ! ! ! ew da s from 10-30% and such a retrofit is generally financially but with higher estimates for efficiency gains from ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! by 20 5 by 20 5! ! ! by 20 5 beneficial with an efficiency improvement of 4-8%. modernization (based on the studies described above), ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! ew ew ew da s da s da s ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! !! !! !! !! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! Retrofits are generally applied to dams that have been indicates a technical potential of 402 TWh/year from ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! Existing!! !! Existing!! !! Existing byby by20 5 20 5 20 5 10 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! da s! da s! da s in service for 30 years or longer . For example, during retrofitting older dams. This level of generation is ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !!! !! !!! !! !!! !! !!! !! !!! !! !! !! !!! !! !! !! !! !! !! ! !! ! !! ! !! ! !! ! ! !! ! ! ! the 1980s and 1990s, the Tennessee Valley Authority just over 10% of current global annual hydropower !! !! !!!! !! !! !! !! !! !!!!! !! !! !! !! !!!! !! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!! !!!!!! ! ! !!! !!!!!! ! ! ! ! !! !! !!!! ! !! ! !! !! !!!! !! !!!! ! !! ! !! ! ! !! ! ! in the United States was able to increase generation generation (approximately 4,000 TWh/year), illustrating ! !! !! ! ! !! !! ! ewly ewly! !! !! ! ewly ! ! !!! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!! ! ! !!! ! ! ! !!! ! ! !!! ! !! ! ! ! !!! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! ! !! !!!!!!!!! !! !!!!!!!!! i acted da s i acted!! !!!!! !!da s!! i acted da sExistingExistingExisting !! !! !! by 34% from its system by modernizing turbines at the potential contribution that could be made by ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!! ! !!! ! !!! by 20 5 by 20 5 by 20 5 Chile!! scenarios !! !! da sda sda s ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! its dams, while during a similar period, generation increasing generation from existing infrastructure. !!! !!! !!! !! !! !!!! !! !! !! !!!! !! !!!! ! ! !!! !!!!!!!!!! ! ! ! ! !!! !!!!!!!!!! !! !!!! ! ! !!!!! ! ! ! ! !!!!! ! !!!!! ! ! ! ! ! ! BAU!! scenario!! !!!!! ! ! !! Basin scenario!! !! River!!!!! ! ! scenario ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! declined by 16% from hydropower plants operated ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Currently Currently! ! ! Currently ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Beyond increasing generation, the original ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! i acted i acted i acted by the US Army Corps of Engineers, largely due to !! ! !! !!!!! !! !! ! ! ! !!!!!!! ! ! ! river river river designs and operating rules of existing hydropower ! ! ! ewly ewly ewly aging equipment11. These numbers and examples ! !!!!!!!!!!!!! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!! ! ! ! ! i actedi actedi acted da s da s da s facilities can be reassessed to see if they can be ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! describe projects in which turbines were replaced ! !!! ! !! ! !!!!! !!! !!! ! ! ! Free lowing Free lowing Free lowing ! !!!!!!!!!!!! ! ! used in a more flexible manner to back up variable ! ! !! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! byby by20 5 20 5 20 5 !! !! !! !! !! !! river river river with units with the same capacity—and used the !!! !!!! ! ! renewables. This can involve simply changing ! !!! !! ! ! !! ! ! !! !! ! !!! !! !!! !! !! !! same civil works and water flow. In some situations, !!!! !!! !! !! ! ! !!! !!!! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! operating rules for a single reservoir, improving !!! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!! it makes financial sense to retrofit or rebuild the dam, !!!!! !!!! ! !! !!!! ! coordination between projects in a cascade, investing ! ! !!! !! ! ! !!! ! ! CurrentlyCurrentlyCurrently ! ! ! and the rebuilt power plant can have greater capacity ! !! !!! ! ! !!!! in infrastructure such as increasing storage capacity (by !! ! ! i actedi actedi acted !! than the original. For example, the original 26 MW !! !!!!! !!! raising a dam), generating capacity (by building !! ! ! riverriverriver ! !!!!! ! ! ! Rheinfelden project on the Rhine River in Switzerland, !! ! a second powerhouse), or installing pumping capacity ! ! ! built in the early 20th century, was replaced in 2011 by !! between two projects in a cascade. Such changes ! a new 100 MW project that will triple annual generation 12 can be highly cost-efficient and low impact, ! ! ! Free lowingFree lowingFree lowing up to 600,000 MWh . In the appropriate situation, a ! ! ! ! ! ! compared to greenfield projects. ! ! riverriverriver conventional hydropower dam can be retrofitted with ! reversible “pumpback” turbines to allow it to function 4.5. Installed new hydropower portfolio ew da s by 20 5 Existing da s as a pumped storage project. One example is the 4.2.2 Planning for new hydropower for reference (BAU) and scenarios that ewly i acted riversda s by 20 5 protected free-flowing rivers (basin- Currently i acted river 1992 retrofit of Richard B. Russell Dam in the United Energy planning exercises could lead to demands constrained and river-constrained) for Chile. Free lowing river States, which added four 75 MW reversible turbines, for additional hydropower generation. The question allowing it to pump back and store water from the then becomes where and how — specifically reservoir of the Strom Thurmond Dam, which is which sites, designs and operations — would meet about hydropower’s role in a grid, compared to • Maximizing generation and energy services from backed up to its base13. energy demands while conserving as much river other technologies, will depend on a range of existing infrastructure, including upgrading or and environmental benefits as possible. Different factors, including cost, resource availability, retrofitting equipment in existing hydropower Adding turbines to non-powered dams. hydropower options could include run-of-river vs. GHG emissions, and social and environmental dams and adding turbines to non-powered dams Only a relatively small percentage of the world’s storage designs, different capacities, and different impacts. Thus, more detailed information on the and other infrastructure; dams are equipped to produce hydropower. In the reservoir operating rules that determine water r environmental performance of hydropower in a United States, 80,000 dams, or more than 90% of all • Within energy and water-management eleases at different times of the year. given region, encompassing impacts, mitigation dams in the country, do not produce hydropower. systems, planning for hydropower to achieve options and other factors, is needed to inform this A study by the US Department of Energy found that While some countries, such as Brazil, have generally multiple objectives and avoid significant decision about the appropriate mix of generation hydropower was technically feasible on 50,000 of planned hydropower at the system scale, hydropower environmental and social conflicts, through and/or storage technologies. Similarly, if hydropower these. This would add 12 GW of hydropower capacity dams in much of the world are usually planned and analyses to guide the siting and design of is selected as a needed component for a grid, then — a 15 percent increase on the country’s conventional built on a project-by-project basis, while Environmental new dams and operation of new and existing planners and resource managers can strive hydropower fleet. Nearly 70% of this potential Impact Assessments are also carried out at the level dams; and to minimize the impacts of hydropower development increased capacity could be added at the 100 largest of single projects. This scale of planning and review through careful siting, design, and operation. • Best practices for existing dams, including identified sites, primarily locks and dams on major overlooks the cumulative impacts of multiple projects The best practices for minimizing the impacts environmental flows and fish passage. rivers operated by the US Army Corps of Engineers14. as well as potential synergies between investments from new hydropower overlap with those for Some projects of this type have already been planned in coordination. maximizing the environmental performance of completed with turbines added to locks and dams 4.2.1 Maximize generation from existing The potential benefits of a system-scale approach existing hydropower. on the Ohio River bringing more than 300 MW of infrastructure to deliver improved outcomes for both energy and capacity to the grid15. Best practice for siting, design and operation Many regions of the world have mature infrastructure environmental resources are illustrated by recent of hydropower projects and systems are covered systems, which may provide significant opportunity Drawing on a global database of existing dams, research in the Mekong basin. For example, Schmitt in greater detail in a range of sources9 and here to add hydropower generation without building new Baruch-Mordo et al., (2018) used conservative et al. (2017) found that the current (largely unplanned) we briefly cover the following topics: dams. There are several means to accomplish this. assumptions to estimate that upgrades to older portfolio of dams in the 3S Basin (a tributary to the
48 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 49 CHAPTER 4 ACHIEVING LOW CARBON, LOW IMPACT GRIDS
Mekong) generates 16,000 GWh/year while reducing project sites, designs, and operations), which This example shows how multi-objective trade-off 4.2.3 Best practices for dam design export of river-transported sand from the basin by maximize different combinations of stakeholder-defined analyses can inform system planning, which strives to and operations: environmental flows and 90%. However, had the 3S basin been planned as a performance metrics. Examples can be found in find development and management options that work fish passage system with the goal of maintaining as much sand as Opperman et al. (2017) or in the publications well across multiple objectives, such as generation Dam operations can cause an alteration of a river’s possible (vital for the downstream delta), a planned cited above. and river protection. Although applied above to flow patterns, which can contribute to negative portfolio of dams could have produced the same a river basin system, the approach can be used to Ideally, system planning should move beyond a technical social and environmental impacts downstream. annual generation but with only a roughly 15% loss consider portfolios of interdependent energy and exercise and include extensive stakeholder engagement, Thus, managing dam operations to reduce negative of sand17. See Box 7.2 for other examples of missed water options at the regional or country scale21. both to better understand the objectives that should impacts or restore important processes is an opportunities for more balanced outcomes from the be considered and to ensure that results feed into important part of best practices for hydropower (and common failure to plan at the system scale. meaningful dialogue and decision making. To facilitate thus are among the options that can be assessed 4.6. Interactive parallel axis plots for a multi-objective trade- A range of existing approaches can be used to this engagement, trade-off plots can be generated and off analysis. Each line represents a package of hydropower and within system-scale planning and tradeoff analyses). move planning to the system scale. As mentioned used in interactive settings to allow decision makers irrigation development options in Kenya’s Tana River basin. The There is an extensive literature on methods to define above, some countries have traditionally engaged in or stakeholders to visualize the trade-offs of different three vertical axes plot the performance against three performance metrics (flow alteration, irrigation revenue, and hydropower environmental flows to achieve environmental and energy system planning and/or river basin planning, options and collectively explore options that may be generation, from left to right). Preferred performance is towards the social objectives through dam operations22 and a although these have often given limited consideration acceptable to different interests. top. These plots were generated by polyvis.org and can be explored online at: http://wiseup.polyvis.org/. growing set of research papers and case studies on to environmental and social values. Environmental An example of a trade-off plot that can be used review methods, such as Strategic Environmental in an interactive setting is the multi-criteria “parallel Assessment and Cumulative Impact Assessment, axis plot” (Figure 4.6) showing options for river basin which are being used increasingly, move the scale of development and management on the Tana River 4.6. Examples of visuals that can be used in interactive settings to guide hydropower planning environmental review and guidance on project site (Kenya)20. Each horizontal line represents a package selection towards the system scale. Conservation of different hydropower and irrigation development Flow regime alteration (-) New Irrig Revenue (USDm/yr) Total generation (USDm/yr) organizations have promoted the benefits of various and management options. The point at which each approaches to system-scale planning, such as The line crosses an axis indicates how the corresponding Nature Conservancy’s Hydropower by Design18. portfolio performs against a given metric. In this While the 3S example above highlighted the benefits example, the metrics are, from left to right, flow regime of system planning when seeking better outcomes alteration (an indicator of environmental performance), from two objectives (generation and sediment), irrigation revenue and total hydropower generation (axes system planning will often be required to balance a are oriented so that better performance is always higher). much broader range of objectives. To address this The plot shows roughly 50 portfolios selected by the complexity, river basin simulation models and multi- search algorithm as being Pareto optimal (i.e., one objective trade-off analysis can be used to compare metric couldn’t be improved further without diminishing the performance of many different development and another metric). The plot reveals how the portfolios management options across a range of performance vary in terms of performance across the three metrics, criteria, spanning economic, social and environmental and these results can be used to examine tradeoffs objectives19. In this approach, the river basin is and to search for portfolios that may be acceptable simulated so that different groupings of hydropower to various stakeholders. For example, the top plot has assets (their spatial configuration, size and operating been adjusted to restrict the portfolios that perform procedures) can be considered in an integrated Flow regime alteration (-) New Irrig Revenue (USDm/yr) Total generation (USDm/yr) well for both flow regime (on the left) and hydropower manner. This means cumulative impacts are evaluated (on the right). Thick gray bars on the axes indicate the and system-scale strategic outcomes can be assessed selected acceptable ranges, and portfolios that meet the before making investment decisions, and can selected ranges for both are highlighted in dark blue. influence siting, design, and operational decisions. The results show that none of these portfolios performs In multi-objective trade-off analysis, a simulation highly for irrigation, revealing the tradeoff between model of the proposed system is connected to a objectives. These plots can also be used to search for search algorithm to systematically assess the different portfolios that may be acceptable for all objectives (not combinations of options and identify subsets “win-win” but “close-to-win, close-to-win”). For example, (“portfolios”) of options that work well together, if the acceptable ranges for both flow alteration and given a series of metrics of performance. Because hydropower are expanded somewhat (see larger gray the approach is multi-criteria, it does not identify a bars in lower plot), the subsequent result identifies one single best design, but rather it identifies different portfolio that has higher performance for irrigation — combinations of options that best suit different double the irrigation revenue of the highest performing preferences. The search process identifies packages portfolio with somewhat more restricted ranges for the of river basin portfolios (specific combinations of other two objectives (upper plot).
50 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 51 CHAPTER 4 ACHIEVING LOW CARBON, LOW IMPACT GRIDS
the results of environmental flow implementation23. safe for people, these rapid changes in flow are mines and quarries into reservoirs, such as a studying fish passage through lower dams on For example, hydropower dam operations were associated with a range of impacts on river German coal mine that is becoming a 200 MW tropical rivers (e.g., for the fish passage facilities on adjusted to improve spawning habitat for salmon ecosystems, including bank erosion and the flushing pumped storage plant, with similar ideas being the Xayaboury Dam on the Mekong River in Laos), in the Skagit River in the United States, resulting of fish and other organisms downstream (during a explored in the United State28. there remains limited evidence that fish passage in a significant increase in successful spawning. rapid rise in flow) and stranding of fish in portions of can be effective for the majority of tropical fish • Reregulation reservoirs. The most downstream Beginning in 2011, the Three Gorges Dam on China’s the channel that become isolated or dry (during species. Most successful examples — and the bulk dam in a cascade can be operated to smooth out Yangtze River has released a managed flood pulse in a rapid decrease in flow)26. of technical knowledge — come from river systems the fluctuations in flow arriving from the late spring intended to promote spawning conditions where the target for fish passage are strong- Restrictions on how quickly flows can increase or operations of dams further upstream, thus for native carp species24. swimming salmonids that can leap. In contrast to decrease (“ramping rates”) can reduce some of these potentially releasing a more natural hydrograph a temperate river with fish passage intended for The interaction between hydropower and variable impacts. Beyond managing ramping rates, there are into the river below the cascade. In some cases, salmonids or a small number of other species, renewable sources highlights a specific challenge two primary ways for hydropower systems to provide a reregulation dam can be built for this specific tropical systems, such as the Mekong or Amazon, for balancing renewable energy generation with the service of balancing grids while minimizing, or purpose. For example, on Australia’s Mitta Mitta can have hundreds of migratory fish species that healthy rivers. Throughout this report we discuss how completely avoiding, these types of impacts on rivers: River, the Banimboola Reregulation Reservoir was vary greatly in swimming behavior and their ability hydropower can help balance grids and facilitate constructed to reduce the fluctuations in flow • Pumped storage. Reservoirs with pumpback to use fish passage facilities. Furthermore, the vast a greater share of wind and solar generation. But from the upstream Dartmouth Dam, allowing that turbines will release highly variable flows into a amount of biomass that is moving along a river such for a conventional hydropower dam, providing this downstream reservoir rather than into a river. dam to meet regulatory requirements for ramping as the Mekong during a peak migration time can be balancing role will generally require fluctuations, Similarly, off-channel pumped storage projects rates and reduce downstream erosion29. These far greater than standard fish passage designs could often rapid25, in flow releases as the dam quickly also release their variable flow patterns into a reregulation dams can also generate electricity. manage. responds to changes in wind or solar generation. reservoir. New innovative ideas are being explored These rapid changes in operations result in for pumped storage that don’t involve a river at all, In addition to flow alterations, a primary A recent review found that the average upstream significant fluctuations in discharge and water levels including (1) seawater pumped storage, using the environmental concern for dams is their impact passage rate for non-salmonids at fish passage in the river downstream. In extreme cases, these ocean as an essentially infinite lower reservoir with on fish passage. Many dams are simply too high facilities was approximately 20%, although there are changes pose a danger to human life and property. an existing example in Japan27 and a proposed for effective fish passage. Although considerable almost no studies from rivers such as the Mekong But even if maintained within levels generally project in Chile; and (2) converting abandoned research funds have been invested recently in to include in this review35. Even assuming a 20%
BOX 4.3
passage project was a nature-like to maintaining generation, the of the potential pool of STRATEGIC 30 33 fish bypass) . Dam removals and prevalence of obsolete dams candidates . The dam removal
DAM REMOVAL fish bypass construction occurred in places such as the United movement is also growing now between 2013 and 2016 and some States and Europe means that The Penobscot River in Maine in Europe, with the largest dam fish populations have already dam removal can often provide historically supported the removal on the continent so far — showed a rapid recovery, with significant gains in river health the obsolete 36-meter tall Vezins largest runs of Atlantic salmon in river herring numbers reaching with little or no loss of benefits hydropower dam on the Selune the Northeastern United States, 1.8 million in 2016 – 135 times the — in fact the removal can reduce River in France — set to commence along with 11 other species of 31 number before the dam removals . liabilities and risks. The United in 2019. migratory fish. States has nearly 100,000 dams Meanwhile, the agreement also and the average age of a dam is Strategic methods can be applied included new licenses for the But for more than a century, a 60 years. Nearly 16,000 dams are to identify which dam removals remaining dams, which permitted series of small hydropower dams classified as having “high hazard” will provide the most benefits. equipment and operational (average of 7.5 MW per dam), potential with rapid growth For example, a modeling study changes. After these changes, LR – can we get the HR? equipped with antiquated fish in that designation as many in the Willamette River basin total generation from the basin passage, had dramatically reduced continue to age with minimal or assessed tradeoffs with various will slightly increase, even after the fish populations. In 2005 a deal no maintenance. The American removal options from among 150 dam removals. was reached between the dam Society of Civil Engineers dams in the basin. They found owners, the Penobscot Indian The Penobscot illustrates the estimates it would cost US$64 that removing only 12 dams Service Park National © Nation, state and federal agencies potential for dam removal to billion to bring all dams in the US could reconnect 52 percent of the 32 and conservation organizations, greatly improve passage and up to an acceptable safety level . drainage basin to the ocean — key Removal of the Glines Canyon Dam on the Elwha River in 2014 (Washington state, USA), which called for the removal of two boost fish populations. While Approximately 1,300 dams have for migratory fish such as salmon — two years after removal of the Elwha Dam. These dams had caused a 99 percent reduction in the Elwha’s salmon numbers, previously upwards of 400,000 per year across five species dams and improved fish passage the Penobscot was coupled been removed in the US in the with a loss of less than 2 percent of of salmon. The combined capacity of the two dams was 28 MW; since dam removal began, at two remaining dams (one with a system-scale approach past 30 years, a small proportion the basin’s hydropower capacity34. Washington State has added nearly 1000 MW of wind power.
52 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 53 CHAPTER 4 ACHIEVING LOW CARBON, LOW IMPACT GRIDS
passage rate at a dam on the Mekong or Amazon, conservation and the energy sector. While uptake private working ranches that span 2 million that these efforts were sufficient to keep the the fish passage challenge is compounded by of regional planning remains limited, there are hectares — an area twice the size of Yellowstone sage-grouse off the endangered species list, thus the fact that many mainstem rivers have, or are concrete examples of the successful integration of National Park42. In addition, state and federal reducing regulatory hurdles to renewable energy projected to have, multiple dams. Even two the mitigation hierarchy with energy planning within agencies have adopted a plan that will influence expansion, while also significantly improving sequential dams with a 20% passage rate will a regional approach. activities on more than 57 million acres of public conservation of the sage-grouse across millions reduce by 96% the proportion of original migrating land43. In September 2015, the USFWS concluded of hectares of its habitat. The western United fish that reach an upstream habitat. In addition, US Solar Energy Zones. States has seen rapid growth in installed solar dams with large reservoirs with low velocity water power capacity catalyzed by policy incentives and pose a nearly insurmountable barrier for the ENDNOTES J.R. and Opperman, J.J., (2018): “From Paris to during-peak-demand.html available funding. However, this expansion has 29 downstream movement of eggs or larval fish, practice: sustainable implementation of renewable Watts, R.J., Richter, B.D., Opperman, J.J. and raised concerns about impacts on wildlife and other 1 IRENA (2019). Innovation landscape for a renewable- energy goals. Environmental Research Letters.” Bowmer, K.H., (2011): “Dam reoperation in an era of which require a current. powered future. International Renewable Energy 17 Schmitt, R.J., Bizzi, S., Castelletti, A. and Kondolf, climate change.” Marine and Freshwater Research, natural resources, leading to some challenges with Agency, Abu Dhabi. G.M., (2018): “Improved trade-offs of hydropower 62(3), pp.321-327. 2 Williams, J.H., B.Haley, F.Kahrl, J.Moore, A.D. Jones, and sand connectivity by strategic dam planning in 30 Opperman, J., Royte, J., Banks, J., Rose Day, L. and These challenges for up- and downstream fish permitting processes and delayed approvals. In M.S. Torn, H. McJeon (2014): “Pathways to deep the Mekong.” Nature Sustainability, 1(2), p.96. Apse, C., (2011): “The Penobscot River, Maine, USA: passage suggest that the installation of fish passage 2012, the US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) decarbonization in the United States.” The U.S. report 18 Opperman et al., 2017; (see note 9) A basin-scale approach to balancing power of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project of the The Nature Conservancy 2018; (see note 9) generation and ecosystem restoration.” Ecology facilities is highly unlikely to result in successful adopted a landscape approach to accelerate Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the 19 Hurford, Anthony, and Julien Harou. (2014): and Society, 16(3). Institute for Sustainable Development and International “Balancing ecosystem services with energy and 31 Miller, Kevin (2015): “Two years after dams’ mitigation of dams as barriers in many river systems. utility-scale solar energy development on public Relations. Retrieved from: http://unsdsn.org/wp-content/ food security-assessing trade-offs for reservoir removal, Penobscot River flourishes.” Portland Press This underscores the value of system-scale planning, lands, drawing on comprehensive assessments uploads/2014/09/US-Deep-Decarbonization-Report.pdf operation and irrigation investment in Kenya’s Tana Herald, September 27. Retrieved from: http://www. 3 Nelson, J., Johnston, J., Mileva, A., Fripp, M., Hoffman, I., basin.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11 (1): pressherald.com/2015/09/27/a-river-revived-the- which strives to minimize fragmentation, as well as of habitat values carried out by The Nature Petros-Good, A., Blanco, C. and Kammen, D.M., (2012). 1343-1388.; Geressu, Robel T., and Julien J. Harou. penobscot-river-two-years-after-dams-removal/. High-resolution modeling of the western North American (2015): “Screening reservoir systems by considering 32 American Society of Civil Engineers. 2017. 38 the promising potential of the renewable revolution Conservancy . BLM’s plan applies across six states power system demonstrates low-cost and low-carbon the efficient trade-offs—informing infrastructure Infrastructure Report Card; https://www. futures. Energy Policy, 43, pp.436-447; Budischak, investment decisions on the Blue Nile.” Environmental infrastructurereportcard.org/ to make possible electricity systems that rely on and considers the direct, indirect, and cumulative 33 C., Sewell, D., Thomson, H., Mach, L., Veron, D.E. and Research Letters 10 (12): 125008. Thomas-Blate, Jessie (2018): “Dam good year for alternatives to dams on big, mainstem effects of solar development over a 20-year period. Kempton, W., (2013). Cost-minimized combinations of 20 WISE-UP to Climate; http://wiseup.polyvis.org/ dam removal in 2017.” Retrieved from: https://www. wind power, solar power and electrochemical storage, 21 The application of multi-objective trade-off analysis americanrivers.org/2018/02/dam-removal-in-2017/ rivers with important migratory fish populations. Through this planning process, large areas of the powering the grid up to 99.9% of the time. journal of for energy and water options is being developed 34 Kuby, Michael J., William F. Fagan, Charles S. ReVelle, power sources, 225, pp.60-74. and trialed as part of the www.futuredams.org and William L. Graf. (2005): “A multiobjective In mature river basins with aging infrastructure, region have been designated as protected from 4 Shirley, R., D. Kammen, (2015): “Energy planning and project, with case-studies in the West Africa, East optimization model for dam removal: an example strategic dam removal can be the best solution for solar development due to their habitat values. development in Malaysian Borneo: Assessing the Africa and Myanmar. trading off salmon passage with hydropower and benefits of distributed technologies versus large scale 22 Tharme, Rebecca. (2003): “A global perspective on water storage in the Willamette basin.” Advances in improving fish passage (Box 4.3). However, the plan also established 19 solar energy energy mega-projects.” Energy Strategy Reviews environmental flow assessment: emerging trends in Water Resources 28, no. 8: 845-855. 35 Noonan, M.J., Grant, J.W. and Jackson, C.D. (2012): development zones, facilitating the expansion of 8, 15–29. Retrieved from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j. the development and application of environmental esr.2015.07.001 flow methodologies for rivers.” River research and “A quantitative assessment of fish passage efficiency.” renewable energy. This approach has encouraged 5 Kittner, N., Dimco, H., Azemi, V., Tairyan, E., Kammen, applications 19 (5-6): 397-441.; Opperman, J.J., Fish and Fisheries, 13(4), pp.450-464. 4.3 REGIONAL PLANNING TO D.M., (2016): “An analytic framework to assess future Kendy, E., Tharme, R.E., Warner, A.T., Barrios, E. 36 Kiesecker, J. M. and Naugle, D. (eds.) (2017): “Energy cross-agency collaboration and reduced project electricity options in Kosovo.” Environ. Res. Lett. 11, and Richter, B.D., (2018): “A three-level framework Sprawl Solutions: Balancing Global Development MINIMIZE IMPACTS FROM WIND 104013. Retrieved from: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748- for assessing and implementing environmental and Conservation”. Washington, DC, Island Press. permitting time from an average of 18-24 months 9326/11/10/104013 flows.” Frontiers in Environmental Science, 6, p.76. 37 Kiesecker, J. M., Copeland, H. E., McKenney, B. A., AND SOLAR EXPANSION 6 23 Pocewicz, A., and Doherty, K. E. (2011): “Energy by down to 10, while also protecting areas of high Avila, N., N. Kitnner, R. Shirley, M. Dwyer, D. Harwood, A., Johnson, S., Richter, B., Locke, A., Roberts, J. Sagerand, D. M. Kammen. “Distributed Yu, X., and Tickner, D. (2017): “Listen to the River: design: making mitigation work for conservation Similar to hydropower development, new wind conservation value39. Renewables Offer Flexibility and Sustainability for Lessons From a Global Review of Environmental and development”. In: Naugle, D. (ed.) Energy Development in Lao PDR.” Lower Mekong Public Policy Flow Success Stories.” WWF-UK. Development and Wildlife Conservation in Western and solar capacity is generally developed at the Initiative. Retrieved From: (http://www.lmppi.edu.vn/ 24 Connor, E.J. and Pflug, D.E., (2004): “Changes in North America. Washington, DC, Island Press, pp. Sage Grouse Core Areas: The greater sage cache/1301526_Policy%20Brief%202.pdf the distribution and density of pink, chum, and 159–81 project scale and without system-scale planning. 7 38 grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) of western J. P. Carvallo, P. Hidalgo-Gonzalez and D. M. Kammen. Chinook salmon spawning in the upper Skagit River Cameron, D.R., B.S. Cohen, and S.A. Morrison. This approach foregoes opportunities for more 2014. Envisioning a sustainable Chile: five findings in response to flow management measures.” North (2012): “An approach to enhance the conservation- North America was considered a candidate species about the future of the Chilean electricity and energy American Journal of Fisheries Management, 24(3), compatibility of solar energy development.” PLos balanced outcomes, including the minimization of system. Natural Resources Defense Council. https:// pp.835-852; Cheng, L., Opperman, J.J., Tickner, D., One 7:e38437. for listing under the US Endangered Species Act 39 Cameron, D.R., L. Crane, S.S. Parker, J.M. Randall environmental and social impacts. Furthermore, the www.nrdc.org/resources/envisioning-sustainable-chile; Speed, R. and Chen, D., (2018): “Managing the (ESA) due to a range of threats, including energy J.P. Carvallo, I. Farral, and D. Kammen. (2018). Energy Three Gorges Dam to implement environmental (2017): “Solar energy development and regional conflicts triggered by these impacts risk slowing pathways for Uganda: an application of the SWITCH flows in the Yangtze River.” Frontiers in conservation planning.” Pages 67-75 In J.M. Kiesecker development40. When the US Fish and Wildlife model. Prepared for WWF. Environmental Science, 6, p.64. and D.E. Naugle (eds.). Energy sprawl solutions. the pace of renewable energy deployment and thus 8 G. Grill, et al (2019). Mapping the world’s free-flowing 25 Doujack, Eduard (2014): “Effects of Increased Island Press, Washington, D.C. 40 Copeland, H. E., Doherty, K. E., Naugle, D. E., 36 Service (USFWS) initially listed the status of sage- rivers. Nature. Solar and Wind Energy on Hydro Plant Operation.” undermining progress towards climate objectives . 9 grouse as threatened, proponents of renewable Opperman, J. et al (2017). The Power of Rivers: HydroWorld. Retrieved from: https://www. Pocewicz, A., and Kiesecker, J. M. (20090: “Mapping Renewable energy development that occurs A Business Case. The Nature Conservancy: Washington, hydroworld.com/articles/print/volume-22/issue-6/ oil and gas development potential in the US energy development feared that conservation D.C.; The Nature Conservancy (2018): “Hydropower by features/effects-of-increased-solar-and-wind-energy- intermountain west and estimating impacts to through regional and integrated planning avoids Design: A Guide.” Washington, D.C., USA. on-hydro-plant-operation.html species.” PLoS One 4, e7400. protections for the species and its habitat would 10 IEA (2012) 26 Schmutz, S., Bakken, T.H., Friedrich, T., Greimel, F., 41 Doherty, K. E., Naugle, D. E., Copeland, H., Pocewicz, the risks associated with piecemeal development 11 Sale, M. J. (2010). Outlook for the Corps of Engineers Harby, A., Jungwirth, M., Melcher, A., Unfer, G. and A., and Kiesecker, J. (2011): “Energy development constrain projects. In response to these and by inverting the timing and scale at which habitat, Hydropower Program. Report prepared for the U.S. Zeiringer, B., (2015): “Response of fish communities and conservation tradeoffs: systematic planning for other concerns (e.g., from ranchers), the Sage Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, to hydrological and morphological alterations in sage-grouse in their eastern range.” Studies in Avian wildlife and other societal values are considered37. Alexandria, VA by M. J. Sale & Associates, Wartburg, TN. hydropeaking rivers of Austria.” River research and Biology 38, 505–16. Grouse Initiative was formed as a collaboration 12 HydroWorld (2011): “Swiss-German utility brings new applications, 31(8), pp.919-930. 42 Baruch-Mordo, S., Evans, J. S., Severson, J. P., Naugle, 100 MW Rheinfelden hydro on line.” Retrieved from: 27 Water Power & Dam Construction (2000): “Japanese D. E., Maestas, J. D., Kiesecker, J. M., Falkowski, M. In a regional approach, the potential effects of between state and federal agencies, conservation https://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2011/09/swiss- pumped storage embraces the ocean waves.” J., Hagen, C. A., and Reese, K. P. (2013): “Saving multiple projects are considered before they german-utility-brings-new-100-mw-rheinfelden-hydro- Retrieved from: https://www.waterpowermagazine. sage-grouse from the trees: a proactive solution organizations, and ranching communities. The on-line.html com/features/featurejapanese-pumped-storage- to reducing a key threat to a candidate species.” have been individually planned and are moving SGI supported regional planning and spatial 13 Wikipedia. Richard B. Russel Dam. Retrieved from: embraces-the-ocean-waves/ Biological Conservation 167, 233–41; Copeland, H. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_B._Russell_ 28 Parkin, Brian (2017): “German Coal Mine to Be Reborn E., Pocewicz, A., Naugle, D. E., Griffiths, T., Keinath, towards implementation. By applying the mitigation prioritization to target conservation efforts Dam#cite_note-usacehyd-1 as Giant Pumped Storage Hydro Facility.” Bloomberg. D., Evans, J., and Platt, J. (2013): “Measuring the 14 U.S. Department of Energy (2012): “Hydropower Retrieved from: https://www.renewableenergyworld. effectiveness of conservation: a novel framework to hierarchy (e.g., avoid, minimize, mitigate) to large and balance energy development with habitat Resource Assessment and Characterization.” Water com/articles/2017/03/german-coal-mine-to-be- quantify the benefits of sage-grouse conservation geographic areas and multiple projects, regional protection41. To date, the SGI has secured Power Technologies Office. Retrieved from: https:// reborn-as-giant-pumped-storage-hydro-facility.html policy and easements in Wyoming.” PLoS One 8, www.energy.gov/eere/water/hydropower-resource- Budris, Allan R. (2014): “Pumped storage: Using e67261. planning has the potential to deliver more effective approximately US$750 million in conservation assessment-and-characterization water towers, aquifer well pumps to generate 43 USFWS (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) (2015): 15 J. Runyon. (2016). Inside AMP’s new run-of-river energy during peak demand periods.” Water World. “Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; conservation outcomes, reduce regulatory hurdles funding for on-the-ground projects across the hydropower plants. Renewable Energy World Retrieved from: https://www.waterworld.com/articles/ 12-Month Finding on a Petition To List Greater for industry, and provide cost savings for both 11 western states, enhancing habitat on 1,500 (September, 2016). print/volume-30/issue-6/departments/pump-tips- Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) as an 16 Baruch-Mordo, S., Kiesecker, J., Kennedy, C.M., Oakleaf, techniques/pumped-storage-tapping-into-energy- Endangered or Threatened Species.” Document 80
54 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 55 5 Chapter
GLOBAL BENEFITS FOR RIVERS OF LOW- COST, LOW-CARBON AND LOW- IMPACT POWER SYSTEMS
56 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 57 © Santiago Gibert / WWF Chapter 5
Accelerating the low-carbon, low-cost and low-impact renewable revolution would lead to countries around the world being powered by electricity systems with considerably lower impacts on rivers than status quo projections.
This chapter explores the scope of the potential KEY POINTS benefit to the world’s rivers, which will depend on the scale and nature of future hydropower development. • Estimates for additional hydropower As described in Section 2.1, projections vary widely development between now and of how much hydropower will be developed to 2050 range widely, from a few meet the 2050 power demand and achieve climate hundred GW to more than 1,000 GW. objectives. For example, among 33 scenariosi in the Different levels of future hydropower IPCC SR 1.5 report that limit global temperatures development, and how they are achieved below a rise of 1.5ºC in 2100 with low overshoot, the (with a business-as-usual approach, median projection for global hydropower capacity or with system planning), will result in in 2050 is 1,820 GW, with an interquartile range of dramatically different outcomes for 1,700 to 2,400 GW — from a current baseline of rivers and the ecosystems and people approximately 1,200 GW. A recent study from Teske that depend on them. et al. (2019) projected a 2050 level of hydropower 1 • The global technical potential of capacity of 1,523 GW ; seven of the scenarios in the utility-scale, low-impact wind and solar IPCC report projected a comparable, or even lower, (on converted lands such as agriculture, level of development. degraded land, and rooftops) is 17 times We drew on a previous analysis by Opperman et al. the renewable energy targets that (2015) to explore the possible impacts on rivers under countries have committed to under this range of projected hydropower development2. the Paris Agreement. This should allow This analysis used a database of global rivers that most countries to achieve power included 2.8 million km of channel3 and a database systems that are low carbon, low cost of 3,700 potential future dams compiled by Zarfl et and low impact. al. (2015) from a range of sources4. The dams are • System planning to achieve the lowest classified as: possible impacts is equally beneficial • Under construction — 635 dams with a total 500 GW of potential) — comparable to the median most impacted7. As described in Chapter 4, (and necessary) for all renewable capacity of 224 GW; projection among the IPCC 1.5ºC scenarios. This high levels of dam development in a river basin technologies, will improve environmental would result in an additional 190,000 kilometers of can trap large proportions of the sediment (>90% and social outcomes, and reduce risks for • Potential — 3,065 dams that are listed at some river channel being impacted by fragmentation, in some rivers) needed to maintain downstream communities, developers, and investors. stage in the planning process, with a total capacity indicated by the highest bar in Figure 5.15. deltas. Several of the rivers with greatest potential of 500 GW. Because countries vary considerably expansion of hydropower have deltas with high in their planning processes and documents, these Resources at risk with that level of development biological and economic productivity. Among these should not be considered certain to move forward, include riverine ecosystems and associated fish high-risk deltas is the Mekong and the risk to that but rather should be considered as an inventory of species, fisheries harvests, and the various resources delta — and solutions to reduce that risk — are potential dams. However, the database can be and services associated with deltas. For example, 70% discussed at length in Chapter 7. viewed as a sample of how the world could build of the river kilometers that would be impacted at that an additional 500 GW of capacity, beyond existing level of development occur within river basins that are Higher levels of development (e.g., approaching and under construction dams. in the top quartile of fish species richness6. Similarly, the upper quartile of the IPCC scenarios i The IPCC report has 90 1.5ºC scenarios and we focused on the 44 that achieved the majority of impacted river kilometers occur within at 2,400 GW) would require thousands of additional “low overshoot” (a shorter period of time, with lower peak temperature, during which global temperature rise exceeds 1.5ºC before declining to that If all the dams in the Zarfl database were built, global river basins that have the highest fish harvests (Figure dams beyond those in the Zarfl database, and level). Among the 44, 11 from the REMIND model were dropped because all hydropower capacity would reach 1,850 GW (1,126 had higher estimates for future hydropower than the highest among the other 5.2), while many of the most important rivers for flood- result in considerably higher levels of impact models, including several that achieved highly unrealistic levels. existing in 2015 + 224 GW under construction + © Michel Gunther / WWF recession agriculture are among those that would be on rivers.
58 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 59 CHAPTER 5 GLOBAL BENEFITS FOR RIVERS OF LOW-COST, LOW-CARBON & LOW-IMPACT POWER SYSTEMS
Global5.1. Hydropower future expansion hydro and and impact fragmentation on rivers The ability to substitute wind and solar for a portion existing projects and strategically planned new of hydropower development hinges on the improving projects — can play a key role in facilitating greater 200,000 competitiveness of wind and solar technologies, and proportions of variable renewable sources onto a grid. Global future hydro and fragmentation the ability of grids to incorporate high levels of wind 180,000 However, a primary point illustrated by Figures 5.3 U and solar. But ensuring that this substitution leads to 200,000 A 160,000 B and 5.4 is that, to the extent that wind and solar are m 180,000Global future hydro and fragmentationo electricity systems that are as low impact as possible fr t becoming an increasingly competitive source of ac 160,000140,000 p depends on the widespread availability of wind and 200,000 Im generation, the potential pool for that low-impact 140,000 solar power in areas with low impacts on social and 120,000 180,000 Minimum resource is large and well distributed. In Chapter impact 120,000 Range of environmental resources. 160,000 corresponds 4 we used grid-scale modeling and examples to potential to IEA 2014 100,000100,000 140,000 improvement Here, we estimate the potential global pool of low- demonstrate that the renewable revolution is making 80,00080,000 through 120,000 planning impact wind and solar in areas where hydropower is grids with high proportions of wind and solar, and
fragmentation (km) 60,000 Range of 100,000 impact fragmentation (km) 60,000 projected to expand. For each country, we compare low impacts on rivers, a reality. If policies and 40,000 corresponds 80,000 to Teske Minimum the ratio of potential generation from low-impact wind mechanisms can catalyze broader implementation 20,00040,000 et al 2018 possible fragmentation (km) Additional river channels impacted by 60,000 impact and solar from Baruch-Mordo et al. (2018) with the of similar grids, Figure 5.4 indicates that there is 0 40,000 20,0001450 1550 1650 1750 1850 generation potential dams in the Zarfl database (see extensive potential to do so in a way that minimizes Additional river channels impacted by 20,000
Additional river channels impacted by Annex 2). The countries with the greatest projected impacts on rivers, land, and people. 0 Level of hydropower development in 2050 Global Capacity (GW) 0 hydropower development, based on the Zarfl data, ■ Range1450 of potential1450 improvement1550 through1550 system planning1650 1650 ■ Minimum1750 kilometers impacted17501850 1850 represent 75% of all potential hydropower. In each Level of hydropower development in 2050 Global Capacity (GW) ENDNOTES 9 Figure 5.2 adapted from Level of hydropower development in 2050 Global Capacity (GW) of these countries, the potential generation from 1 Teske, Sven., (2019): “Achieving Opperman et al. 2017 (see note ■ Range of potential improvement through system planning ■ Minimum kilometers impacted low impact wind and solar is an order of magnitude the Paris Climate Agreement 8) and based on analysis adapted ■ ■ Goals”. Springer. Switzerland. from McIntyre, Peter, Catherine Range of potential improvement through system planning Minimum kilometers impacted 2 to several orders of magnitude greater than that Opperman, J., Grill, G. and Reidy Liermann, Hartmann, J., (2015). The Power and Carmen Revenga (2015): of Rivers: Finding balance “Linking freshwater fishery 5.1. Potential improved outcomes for global rivers through from potential hydropower (Figure 5.3). This pattern used to minimize impacts on connectivity for that level of between energy and conservation management to global food substitution of other technologies for hydropower (moving from right is found in nearly all countries in the world where development). The top of the blue-shaded section of the in hydropower development. security and biodiversity to left) and through system planning to optimize between generation hydropower expansion is projected (Figure 5.4). Washington, DC: The Nature conservation.” Proceedings of and environmental performance within river basins (blue shaded area bar represents the amount of fragmentation likely to occur Conservancy. the National Academy of Sciences, 3 within any given level of development). The top of the combined bar Lehner, Bernhard, K. Verdin, and 201521540. with business-as-usual development. Thus, the height of These results do not mean that, in these countries, A. Jarvis. (2008): “New global 10 Baruch-Mordo, S., Kiesecker, represents the level of impact from business-as-usual development of hydrography derived from J., Kennedy, C.M., Oakleaf, J.R. hydropower dams for a given total level of global hydropower the blue-shaded section of the bar represents the range wind and solar can simply substitute for hydropower. spaceborne elevation data.” and Opperman, J.J., (2018): capacity by 2050 and the top of the red bar represents the minimum of potential improvement in outcomes for rivers (reduced In each region or country, the appropriate mix of Eos 89 (10): 93-94. “From Paris to practice: impact possible at that level of development. Note that the bar for 4 Zarfl, Christiane, Alexander sustainable implementation 1850 is depicted as having no range of potential improvement from fragmentation) possible through system planning. generation sources will depend on the characteristics Lumsdon, Jürgen Berlekamp of renewable energy goals. et a. (2015): “A global boom in Environmental Research Letters.”; system planning, but that is because that level of development of the existing grid, patterns of resource availability hydropower dam construction.” Zarfl, C., Lumsdon, A.E., requires building all the dams in the database and thus we can’t Comparing the impacts at 1,750 GW with those at for all types of renewables, and the interactions Aquatic Sciences 77 (1): 161-170. Berlekamp, J., Tydecks, L. and model different configurations (From Opperman et al. 2015 based 1,550 GW shows two primary ways to reduce impacts 5,6,7 Opperman et al. 2015; Tockner, K., 2015. A global boom on dam database from Zarfl et al. 2015). between grid components (generation, transmission, (see note 1). in hydropower dam construction. on rivers. Even with business-as-usual development, 8 Opperman, J. et al. (2017): Aquatic Sciences, 77(1), storage, etc.). The degree to which wind and solar can shifting to the lower of these two levels of global “The Power of Rivers: A Business pp.161-170. However, the trends in cost and levels of investment substitute for a portion of planned hydropower will Case.” The Nature Conservancy: hydropower development could reduce impacts Washington, D.C. for hydropower compared to other renewable vary from country to country. Hydropower — including by 60,000 km. And then, within that lower level of technologies and the potential to retrofit existing development, system planning that optimized between dams and re-operate cascades — along with generation and river connectivity could reduce impacts projections for hydropower in 2050 such as that by a further 100,000 km – in total, a nearly 90% reduction 5.2. Potential hydropower expansion and fisheries of Teske et al. (2019) and the lower quartile of the Fish and hydropower in impact on river fragmentation. In addition to reducing reviewed IPCC 1.5ºC scenarios — suggest that impacts on rivers, a system-planning approach can 300 5.2. The amount of under- future hydropower development may be lower, with construction and planned reduce social conflicts and thus also reduce investment ■ ■ associated impacts reduced — and potentially greatly Planned Under construction hydropower within each risks caused by delays and cancellations8. These results reduced — compared to what is described above. 200 quintile of fishery production suggest two main take-home points: (with one being the lowest and five the highest harvest). The reduction of impacts from lower levels of • Lowering total development of new hydropower 100 Nearly half of all future development are shown in Figure 2.1 (note this analysis hydropower is projected to dams because of greater investment in wind and Gigawatts (GW) can’t explore impacts from levels of development occur within the basins that solar can reduce impacts on rivers at the scale of 0 are in the highest quintile of higher than 1,850 GW because that level exhausts all tens to hundreds of thousands of kilometers globally, 1st quintile 2nd quintile 3rd quintile 4th quintile 5th quintile production. Three-quarters potential dams in the database). Consider a level of of future development is depending on how development unfolds within Fish harvest within the top two quintiles development of 1,750 GW, comparable to the lower 9 river basins because…. 3% 6% 17% 26% 48% combined. quartile of the IPCC scenarios. The top of the red bar represents the minimum kilometers of river impacted • … System-scale planning can identify spatial by fragmentation at that level of development (e.g., configurations of dams that optimize between if the system planning described in Chapter 4 was generation and environmental performance. Share of future hydropower development
60 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 61
PLANNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION CHAPTER 5 GLOBAL BENEFITS FOR RIVERS OF LOW-COST, LOW-CARBON & LOW-IMPACT POWER SYSTEMS
5.3. Potential generation by country: hydropower and low-impact wind and solar
Potential generation, in TWh, from low-impact wind and solar Potential(inner ring, from Baruch-Mordo hydropower et al. 2018) and potential future hydropower (outer ring, Low-impactfrom Zarfl et al. 2015)10*. wind and solar (TWh)
*See p61 for endnote 10
I n d i a
a n ti n e rg A
Argentina
India
China TWh
Ch Hydropower dams ina Chindwin key Tur Brazil Under construction Peru Hydropower dams Pakistan Potential DRCongo Under construction Chindwin n Potential Myanmar a Chindwin t Canada is 5.4. Global map of Ratio of potential generation ak Ratio of potential generation P potential hydropower and from low-impact wind and from low-impact wind and a Irrawaddy d potential generation from solar to generation from a solar to generation from n proposed hydropower dams B proposed hydropower dams a low-impact wind and solar Myanmar C r a o data on otential z o data on otential Ratio of the potential generation from low- Irrawaddy Salween i hydro ower Irrawaddy l impact wind and solar to potential future hydro ower 1 Myanmar hydropower by country. Under construction Myanmar and potential dams are also displayed. The 1 1.1 10.0 Salween inset map illustrates potential dams on 10.1 100.0 Salween rivers in Myanmar - the last long free-flowing 1.1 10.0 100.1 1000.0 rivers in South or Southeast Asia. 10.1 100.0 Long ree lowing rivers See Annex 2 for methods and sources. 1000 100.1 1000.0 Long ree lowing rivers 1000 Long ree lowing rivers 62 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 63 6 Chapter
MAKING SUSTAINABLE GRIDS A REALITY
64 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 65 © Jim Richardson Jim © Chapter 6
The challenge of shifting power generation across the globe to renewable energy sources while meeting growing demand for power and addressing environmental needs is unprecedented.
This transformation will be driven by technological advances and economies of scale that have driven down costs to competitive levels, combined with policies that removed barriers and opened markets to new renewables. However, ensuring this occurs rapidly enough to secure the climate depends on key policy, institutional, technical, and financial reforms. These reforms will be the shared responsibility of many stakeholders, including governments, developers, utilities, consumers, investors, and civil society. KEY POINTS
To accelerate the power sector transition and address • Accelerating the renewables transition the important challenges associated with a dramatic requires the removal of barriers, expansion of renewable energy, energy sector including policy and regulatory reforms, stakeholders will have to adapt simultaneously to redirecting financial flows towards several major changes, including: new renewables, and technological • The rapid changes in the relative costs of 6.1 POLICY AND REGULATIONS Enabling policies are crucial to catalyze shifts in innovation. There are successful different energy technologies and their impact on TO SUPPORT THE RENEWABLE technologies and practices across power systems. examples for all of these that can be investment choices; REVOLUTION These policies start with ambitious targets, expressed emulated by other countries. through international and national commitments, • The unique short-term variability of solar and The key drivers making the renewable energy • Many governments need to modernize supported by specific plans, economic instruments wind energy and its impact on electricity market revolution possible — namely the sharp decline in their energy-sector policies to take full (such as quotas and certificates, targeted operations; solar and wind energy costs, and the commitment advantage of the renewable revolution, procurement rules, feed-in tariffs, carbon pricing, and of countries to climate mitigation targets — have for example by committing to binding • The breadth and depth of climate change financial incentives for renewables), barrier removal occurred so rapidly that many decision makers have renewable energy targets and/or mitigation strategies; and policies (such as ending subsidies on competing introducing targeted auctions for not yet been able to adjust their energy policies energy sources such as oil and coal, equal grid renewables to identify least-cost options. • A more-informed, engaged, and empowered and plans or prepare for the impacts on their access for renewables, and net metering policies), public and the influence of public opinion on power markets. Electricity markets, whose rules are • Financing of new renewables not only and restrictions on highly polluting technologies. acceptance of a massive scale-up of renewable established by governments, were designed primarily needs to be scaled up dramatically, it Some measures will be specific to utility-scale energy projects. to provide cost-effective reliable power in a stable also needs to include funding for system installations, distributed generation, and off-grid or market environment. The same rules that favor stable planning. mini-grid solutions, while others will affect all of These unprecedented changes necessitate and low-cost supplies gave preference to large these segments. • Power system planners, regulators and reforms in three key areas: policies and regulations central power stations that depended on fossil fuels operators need to learn how to integrate to support the renewable revolution; power or hydropower, whose costs have been historically Energy targets are critical for establishing the goals increasingly large shares of variable systems planning, investment, and financing; and low. Opportunities for innovations and pioneer for implementing policies and regulations in any renewables into their grids. the integration of renewable resources into technologies have often been limited by traditional country or state. Recent increases in targets for
power systems. power market structures. © Dave Lauridsen renewables reflect the urgency that governments
66 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 67 CHAPTER 6 THE VISION
place on driving this transition. Over 175 countries For example, some auctions may be limited to have some version of a national target for renewable certain technologies, regions or even individual energy, which can range from broad policy goals sites that governments want to promote. Such to binding objectives, such as renewable portfolio eligibility restrictions can be an effective way standards. Although the United States does not to channel investment into the desired low-impact currently have a national target, at least 37 US states locations, thus increasing public acceptance. Auction have some version of a renewable energy goal1. The regulations could exclude hydropower on certain State of California, for example, adopted a law in “no-go” rivers that would result from the planning 2018 requiring that half of California’s electricity is process (see the case study on Chile in Chapter 4). powered by renewable resources by 2025 and Auctions can be employed to procure generated A 9.9 MW hydropower project in Albania 60% by 2030, while calling for a “bold path” toward energy, firm capacity, or different ancillary that de-waters a 100% zero-carbon electricity by 20452. services, in different time slots and with different stretch of the Rapuni River downstream. temporal horizons. Procurement policies, whether tied to targets or not, are just as important for driving the energy In regions that have not achieved universal access, transition. Market arrangements must consider the enabling policies may still have to include subsidies BOX 6.1 characteristics of the generation technology. For to extend the grid or create off-grid solutions. example, long-term power purchasing agreements In some areas, even the lowest-cost sustainable (PPAs) have become effective tools for contracting technologies may still not be affordable. In others, SMALL HYDROPOWER solar power, as evidenced by their use in Chile, sustainable projects may not be competitive In 2008, Switzerland introduced a feed-in tariff to promote the expansion of renewable energy Mexico, and the United States. They are effective with non-sustainable projects, because of more sources6. While the law incentivized sources such as wind and solar, the developers of small hydropower because they balance the needs of the generator expensive sites or the costs of mitigation measures. projects were the biggest beneficiaries: following passage of the feed-in tariff, 116 small hydropower (i.e., reliable payments over the long term, at a These sustainable universal access subsidies will then dams have been constructed across streams all over Switzerland. price that covers their costs including debt service) have to be covered by taxpayers or, where cross- with those of the off-taker (i.e., reliable access subsidization is possible, by ratepayers. For example, Although these small dams don’t cause impacts such presumption that it is low impact, small hydropower to electricity at a predictable price). A variety of India recently achieved near universal electrification, as displacement, they still fragment streams, leaving is often fast-tracked (e.g., exempt from requirements contracting tools should be used in a diverse market but many households who were not willing or able to stretches with reduced flow during much of the year. for Environmental Impact Assessments). to reflect the different characteristics of the power pay fees have yet to be connected. The power gains from adding more than 100 dams Second, due in part to the presumption of low sources, including dispatchable, variable, stand-by, Policy reforms need political and public support. were minimal; the new projects generate 498 gigawatt impact, small hydropower is often incentivized peaking, storage, etc. These tools need to provide Civil society organizations can help support the hours (GWh) per year, less than 1% of the country’s in policies to promote renewables under climate confidence to stakeholders, including generating transition by challenging the power sector to show annual generation. In comparison, a project to rebuild change objectives. In fact, these incentives can companies, their equity investors and banks, more ambition, through constructive involvement on an existing large hydropower dam on the Rhine with trigger investment that leads to a proliferation of and off-takers. 7 siting of new energy infrastructure, and by helping to a new design added more than 400 GWh , nearly small dams that collectively make an insignificant With rapid cost declines, the renewable revolution achieve public acceptance and political support for equivalent to the generation produced by the 116 contribution to the national grid, even as they may does not depend on economic subsidies any more. the transition. Many countries still have a long way new dams. cause substantial cumulative environmental impacts. Early movers such as Germany, beginning in the early to go, in particular countries with a heavy reliance And it’s not just Switzerland - a recent study found This is not to say that small hydropower is never 2000s, provided generous feed-in tariffs to support on coal such as China, India, the United States, that there are at least 83,000 small hydropower dams an appropriate solution. In fact, small hydropower solar, wind, and other renewable energy deployment Australia and Indonesia. around the world (more than 10 times the number of (or even micro-hydropower) can provide electricity as a tool to overcome the pricing barrier for these Regardless, all countries need to take steps to large hydropower dams), with tens of thousands more to remote communities or contribute to alternatives. Feed in tariffs (FiT) were designed to 8 accelerate the renewable revolution and the in the planning pipeline (note that the definition of decentralized mini-grids serving areas outside provide long-term security to renewable energy role of governments will be essential in setting “small” varies considerably around the world, from primary grids. And companies are finding innovative producers based on the costs of generation of each policies and regulations to reduce costs, increase < 10 MW to up to 50 MW in some countries). ways to deploy small hydropower that are truly low technology, rather than the least-cost conventional or no impact, such as adding turbines to irrigation 3 competitiveness, and advance the deployment But the Swiss example does effectively illustrate two options at the time . As a result, they helped to dams or canals9. and integration of renewables into national important issues when it comes to small hydropower. create the economies of scale, which now make i energy systems . However, the issues describe above underscore solar and wind affordable4, and like many countries, First, small hydropower is generally assumed to be a low – or even no – impact source of low-carbon that decision makers and energy planners should Germany has moved on to competitive models that electricity. But, small dams can sometimes have major evaluate small hydropower on its actual impacts and no longer require significant subsidies (see Box 6.1 impacts, such as on migratory fish (see examples from realistic contributions to energy and development on subsidies for small hydropower). the Penobscot and Elwha rivers in Box 4.3), and several gains, not on overly simplistic (and often inaccurate) i A comprehensive review of various policies and their critical role in this market Regarding competitive models, countries are now transformation can be found in the report, Renewables 2017 Global Status studies of cumulative impacts have found that small assumptions. In most cases, subsidies or incentives experimenting with different auction designs that will Report and Advancing the Global Renewable Energy Transition http://www. hydropower can have larger impact per unit of energy for small hydropower dams would be better ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/170607_GSR_2017_Full_Report.pdf . 5 lead to next generation procurement . (REN21, 2017a, 2017b). © Google Earth produced than large hydropower. Because of the directed at other policy goals.
68 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 69 CHAPTER 2 MAKING SUSTAINABLE GRIDS A REALITY
support investments in oil and gas, and it is site was tremendous, it was rejected largely due to committed to ensuring that 28 percent of all its concerns about landscapes and visual impacts. transactions by 2020 support climate actions. Such concerns are almost certain to increase in Furthermore, the Bank and other multilaterals the future. According to IRENA (2019), solar and such as the Inter-American Development Bank wind capacity would have to increase more than (IDB), Asian Development Bank (ADB), African 14-fold (from 900 to 13,000 GW) by 2050 to meet Development Bank (AfDB), and the European Bank the Paris Agreement objectives, by which time for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), have they would provide 60% of total power generation. access to a broad range of dedicated loan and grant However, in many countries, local acceptance — instruments that can be deployed to support the or the “social license to operate” — is becoming renewable energy transition, including the Green an ever more important and ever more elusive Climate Fund (GCF), the Global Environment Facility prerequisite, and regulatory licenses often reflect the (GEF) and the Clean Technology Fund (CTF). These public’s attitude. and other funds, including those specific to bilateral Ensuring public (and regulatory) acceptance is development agencies, are described in the OECD likely to require a dual strategy. First, proponents Clean Fund Inventory Database11. In all cases, these have to make a genuine effort to follow the institutions should also consider the appropriate mitigation hierarchy, by identifying and avoiding use of blended finance to leverage these public high-value sites, by minimizing and mitigating sources many times over by bringing private and impacts, and by offsetting any residual impacts. institutional investors into the fold. While this could be achieved by a technical, expert- Institutional investors who can take a long-term driven process, this is unlikely to be sufficient. view — such as sovereign wealth funds — have an Second, proponents also have to engage the important role to play in enabling the renewable public and the regulators in the process, explaining energy revolution12. Currently there is US$8 trillion the logic behind siting, design and operational in these funds around the world, but less than 0.2% proposals, and listening to feedback. is invested in renewable energy13. These currently Considering that renewable energies need only underutilized funds could have a profound role to
© Justin Jin / WWF-US limited amounts of land, compared to other play in boosting the transition to renewable processes such as urbanization and agricultural energy economies. expansion, the siting problem is likely to be solvable The successful deployment of new financing almost everywhere. To address the concerns of strategies and streams is contingent on the communities and protect the environment, decision and many potential investments with high rates of 6.2 POWER SYSTEMS PLANNING, development of appropriate long-term planning makers would benefit from access to data and return, there should be no shortage of capital as INVESTMENT, AND FINANCING processes, and countries will need to invest decision-support tools to inform them of what long as the regulatory frameworks are conducive. substantially in early stage or “upstream” planning. natural resources they have available that would Institutional, public and private investors need to However, both private capital and public investments redirect investments from fossil fuels industries They need to map their resources to find the generate low-impact opportunities for renewable are not being used to help increase the deployment and other unsustainable projects to projects that lowest-impact, highest-potential sites; apply modern energy development. A comprehensive planning of renewables to the extent that they could. Both contribute to future sustainable energy systems. multi-criteria planning methods to the selection approach, such as The Nature Conservancy’s should be looking to how they can maximize the The IPCC recently estimated that additional of technologies and projects; and ensure that the Development by Design (DbD) can support flow of funds to support the planning and investments into energy systems to meet the overall system will be able to operate efficiently integrated planning for energy and conservation at development of renewables. 1.5º C goal are around US$830 billion annually from and reliably, while minimizing environmental and landscape, watershed, and seascape levels. 2016-2050 — including six times more than current In developing countries, private capital markets, social impacts (see Section 4.1). These tasks cannot Such tools and information would give developers investment levels in low carbon technologies and public agencies, and partners from bilateral be left to developers, and even monopolistic a sense of the probability of success, including energy efficiency10. These costs also represent an and multilateral agencies and banks, which are national utilities can only perform them if given clear likely conflicts or acceptance of any new projects. immense investment opportunity and will reduce committed to the Paris Agreement and the SDGs, mandates and resources. Where renewables projects are welcome, they investor exposure to material and reputational risks need to support the transition with targeted funding In the absence of comprehensive planning, are more likely to get support in the form of grid from unsustainable projects, such as coal plants, and knowledge transfer. Some multilateral agencies, impacts and conflicts are more likely. There are connections, feed-in rights, and construction that are likely to suffer cost and schedule overruns, like the World Bank, have already refocused their already increasing numbers of of rejections of permits. In supportive frameworks, countries can and may become obsolete over their lifetimeii. With lending in the energy sector to support renewables. wind and solar farms by affected communities and provide designated solar, wind or other renewable interest rates that are still low by historical standards, In 2018, the Bank signaled that it would no longer permitting authorities14. In Iceland, for example, the power development areas, with simplified permitting environmental license for the first large-scale wind processes, offtake arrangements, and transmission ii For example it costs more to run 35% of coal power plants than to build new renewable generation; by 2030 building new renewables will be cheaper than continuing to operate 96% of today’s existing and farm was rejected. While the wind resource at the infrastructure already in place. planned coal plants, as indicated in the report, Powering Down Coal
70 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 71 CHAPTER 6 MAKING SUSTAINABLE GRIDS A REALITY
BOX 6.2 6.3 INTEGRATION OF RENEWABLE RESOURCES IN POWER SYSTEMS EARLY PLANNING Decision makers need to become convinced that PROJECT PREPARATION an energy system that integrates large amounts of FACILITIES IN SUPPORT renewables will deliver better results. Perhaps the most OF “UPSTREAM” substantial concern regarding integration of solar and PLANNING wind energy is their effect on the reliability of the power supply. Initially, when the proportional generation from An early planning project preparation facility wind and solar is relatively low, the variability of these could support “upstream” planning that first sources is very manageable using modern power system management tools. In this stage, the main strategy that identifies an inventory of potential project system regulators and operators use is to inform solar sites, consistent with both investment risk/ and wind developers where and how they can connect return criteria and criteria focused on social through so called “grid codes.” There may be a need to and environmental sustainability. manage grid congestion in certain regions and at certain These sites would then be prepared in detail times of the day, and it becomes necessary to better — including feasibility and impact assessment forecast solar and wind generation to avoid curtailment. studies — to arrive at a short list of bankable As the penetration of variable sources increases, first projects available to developers. Such a facility the flexibility and then the stability of the grid become would motivate participation from a diversity important priorities. This requires improved forecasting of constituencies: governments, by helping accuracy, more flexible operations of existing assets, meet renewable energy commitments and • Storage. Excess power during off-peak hours • “ Deployment of variable renewables imposes dealing with reverse flows from distributed generation other strategic targets and streamlining the can be stored, traditionally in pumped high cost on conventional power plants due to (when their output becomes large relative to the selection and permitting process; developers, hydropower storage but also, increasingly, the need to ramp up and down on short notice”: distribution system capacity into which they are by providing a risk-reduced pipeline of projects; through other technologies (such as molten salt These challenges can be managed through feeding), increasing the size of jointly operated grids development banks, by creating a loan pipeline in concentrated solar plants, batteries, or through forecasting of variable generation that informs (or balancing areas), and introducing requirements or for the same risk-reduced pipeline; and social conversion to hydrogen and other fuels). Batteries real-time updates of generation schedules. markets for ancillary services. in particular are currently experiencing and environmental civil society organizations, • “ Variable renewable capacity requires 1:1 advancements in performance and dropping in by establishing a development framework in To summarize, there are four solutions to short-term backup”: While the capacity factor of a single solar 15 price, suggesting they may offer great promise which their perspectives could be incorporated variability, which are now well understood : or wind plant may be low, the capacity factor of a in the near future. during the influential early stages of planning. system of multiple plants is significantly higher. It • Demand management. Utilities can reduce can be further increased where solar generation is Funding needs to be made available more demand at peak times through a combination of All of these options have some financial, proactively and broadly by multilateral and complementary with demand (for example, where technologies and monetary incentives. For environmental, and social costs, and typically a bilateral financial institutions to support air conditioners operate during hot times of the example, customers with smart electric meters combination will be used to increase the resilience “upstream” planning by governments. A recent day), where demand can be shifted to off-peak can cool down their freezers or recharge the of the system while minimizing those costs. analysis of existing funds or mechanisms (such batteries in their electric cars in early morning times, or where energy can be stored. as traditional project preparation facilities) with There are a number of countries that are already off-peak hours, for a reduced cost. • “Storage is a must-have”: Storage is just one funding potential for upstream planning for managing a high share of variable renewables, element of flexibility. Demand management, Latin America concluded that there are only a • Complementary generation capacity. Generation showing that this is feasible and that a number complementary generation capacity, and grid handful of mechanisms that are currently set companies can keep power stations in reserve of arguments that were traditionally raised integration over larger areas have the same eff.ect up to provide some of the necessary services. for operations in peak hours. These are typically against variable renewables are no longer valid16.
These include ESMAP & PPIAF (at IBRD) and hydropower (with reservoir), natural gas or diesel Several examples of common concerns regarding Grid reliability is also an important element of NDC Invest & UK Sustainable Infrastructure plants. In contrast, other power technologies such as variable renewables are listed below, including a power system planning. While we have previously Program (at IDB), as well as others that have the nuclear, coal, geothermal, biomass, and run-of-river corresponding response: discussed the environmental best practices for siting potential to do so by broadening their mandate: hydropower are designed for continuous • “ Weather driven variability is unmanageable”: of renewable projects, the siting of renewable projects INFRAFund (at IDB), Clean Technology Fund operations, and are less useful for load-following. All grids are able to deal with variability, which also has important implications for grid reliability, (at the Climate Investment Funds), the Private • Grid integration. Power grids can consist of multiple is always present on the demand side. Grids and this should be considered simultaneously during Sector Facility (at the GCF), Global Infrastructure complementary generation facilities and be will typically possess multiple variable power evaluation of impacts and costs. Strategic siting Facility, CABEI and CAF. Annex 1 provides a interconnected over large areas, which increases plants, which will typically vary in distinct periods. options for solar and wind need to factor in whether table with examples of funds with the potential the probability that the sun or the wind are available Furthermore, grids may include several baseload to support upstream planning. their siting should be dispersed or concentrated, at least somewhere in the area, and peak demand and/or storage options that can serve to the proximity of siting to load centers, and the hours are spread over a longer period of time. 17
© Global Warming Images / WWF backstop variability. appropriate grid voltage (distributed or centralised) .
72 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 73 CHAPTER 6 © Dave Lauridsen
6.5 CONCLUSION
A clean energy future that meets multiple social and 5. Governments and the finance sector should economic development objectives while minimizing increase financing for all phases of project local and global environmental impacts is possible. development leading to a substantial upscaling Modern renewable technologies — including variable of investments in renewable energy generation sources such as solar and wind, combined with capacity as well as in storage, transmission back-up generation and storage from batteries and and distribution capacity, energy efficiency, low-impact hydropower — and advanced systems electrification of transport and heating, management approaches make such a reality possible. smart meters, and other components of the They also reduce the risks associated with status future system. quo development pathways, both for our climate in 6. Planners need to expand access to data and the case of fossil fuels, and for communities, rivers, decision-support tools to inform stakeholders and terrestrial ecosystems in the case of high-impact of what natural resources exist and how they may hydropower. The transition to a sustainable electricity be used to generate low-impact renewable system depends not only on continued technology energy development. advancements, but also on many policy, regulatory, planning, financing, and management reforms. 7. Planners and developers should focus investments on low-impact sites by upgrading Governments should establish policies and 1. existing facilities, using brownfields or other enforce economic and regulatory instruments in degraded lands, and using lands close to pursuit of targets. transmission infrastructure. 2. Governments, utilities, and planners should 8. Planners and operators should support establish and adopt system-scale planning for the improvement and innovation in grid management power sector to maximize system performance approaches to prevent grid congestion and to and minimize impacts. avoid curtailment. 3. Governments need to expand the availability 9. Civil society organizations and communities of bilateral and multilateral financing aimed at should actively support efforts to accelerate achieving the Paris Agreement and the the energy transition. Sustainable Development Goals.
4. Governments should increase access to financing The success of the energy transition will depend to achieve universal access to low-carbon, on the collective efforts of many stakeholders low-impact, low-cost electricity. towards these reforms.
ENDNOTES Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. Vol. 16. spo/ ; Dance, Scott (2017): “Power Struggle: Maryland Issue. 2. 91-100. Retrieved from: https://esajournals. green energy projects stall amid protests from worried 1 IEA. IEA/IRENA Joint Policies and Measures onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/fee.1746 neighbors.” The Baltimore Sun. Retrieve from: https:// database. Retrieved from: https://www.iea.org/ 9 Andrews, Jessica, M. Britton (2017): “Capturing www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/environment/ policiesandmeasures/renewableenergy/ untapped potential: Small hydro in irrigation canals.” bs-md-wind-farms-20171115-story.html; Le Coz, 2 Domonoske, Camila (2018): “California sets goal of 100 Hydro Review. Retrieved from: https://www.hydroworld. Emily and L. Sherman (2017): “In the Shadow of Wind percent clean electric power by 2045.” NPR. Retrieved com/articles/hr/print/volume-36/issue-8/articles/ Farms.” GateHouse Media. Retrieve from: https:// from: https://www.npr.org/2018/09/10/646373423/ capturing-untapped-potential-small-hydro-in-irrigation- gatehousenews.com/windfarms/home/ ; Roth, Sammy california-sets-goal-of-100-percent-renewable-electric- canals.html (2019): “California’s San Bernardino Country slams power-by-2045 10 IPCC, (2018): Summary for Policymakers. In: Global the brakes on big solar projects.” LA Times. Retrieve 3 NREL (2010): “Policymaker's Guide to Feed-in Tariff Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the from: https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-san- Policies.” U.S. National Renewable Energy Lab. impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial bernardino-solar-renewable-energy-20190228-story. Retrieved from: www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/44849.pdf levels and related global greenhouse gas emission html ; Business & Human Rights Resource Center. 4 Chandler, David L. (2018): “Explaining the plummeting pathways, in the context of strengthening the global “Colombia: Jepiarchi Wind Farm impacts indigenous cost of solar power.” MIT News. Retrieved from: http:// response to the threat of climate change, sustainable people in La Guajira.” Retrieve from: https://www. news.mit.edu/2018/explaining-dropping-solar-cost-1120 development, and efforts to eradicate poverty business-humanrights.org/en/colombia-jepirachi- 5 IRENA and CEM (2015): “Renewable Energy Auctions 11 OECD. Climate Fund Inventory Database. Retrieve from: wind-farm-impacts-indigenous-people-in-la-guarija; – A Guide to Design.” Retrieved from: https://www. https://qdd.oecd.org/subject.aspx?subject=climatefund Navarro, Santiago and R. Bessi. “The Dark Side of irena.org/publications/2015/Jun/Renewable-Energy- inventory Clean Energy in Mexico.” Americas Program: A new Auctions-A-Guide-to-Design 12 Bloomberg NEF (2018): New Energy Outlook 2018. world of action and communication for social change. 6 Weibel, David (2011): “Analysis of the Swiss Policy and Retrieved from: https://about.bnef.com/new-energy- Retrieve from: https://darktracesofcleanene.atavist. its implications on the Development of Photovolatics in outlook/ com/dark-traces-of-clean-energy-f1xd6 Switzerland.” Energy Economics and Policy. ETH Zurich. 13 World Economic Forum (2019): Thinking Strategically: 15 IRENA (2019). Innovation landscape for a renewable- Retrieved from: http://www.files.ethz.ch/cepe/top10/ Using Resource Revenues to Invest in a Sustainable powered future. International Renewable Energy weibel.pdf Future. Retrieve from: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/ Agency, Abu Dhabi. 7 Poyry. “Rheinfelden Power Plan Switzerland / Germany.” WEF_Thinking_Strategically.pdf 16 OECD/IEA (2017): “Getting Sun and Wind onto Retrieved from: https://www.poyry.com/sites/default/ 14 Kelly, Laura (2018): “Virginia residents protect proposed the Grid : A Manual for Policy Makers.” Retrieve files/media/related_material/49.pdf solar farm in Spotsylvania.” Washington Times. Retrieve from: https://www.iea.org/publications/insights/ 8 Couto, Thiago BA, J. Olden (2018): “Global proliferation from: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/ insightpublications/Getting_Wind_and_Sun.pdf of small hydropower plants – science and policy.” dec/10/virginia-residents-protest-proposed-solar-farm- 17 OECD/IEA 2017; see note 16.
74 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 75 7 Chapter
FISH AND GRIDS: SUSTAINABLE POWER FOR THE MEKONG REGION
76 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 77 © Adam Oswell / WWF-Greater Mekong THE VISION
Chapter 7
7.1 INTRODUCTION This report has offered a vision of how the world could meet its electricity needs through power systems that are low carbon, low cost and low impact on environmental and social resources.
To ground this vision in reality, this chapter explores how this vision could be implemented in the Mekong River basin in Southeast Asia. Here we integrate all the various components of the report — modeling of grids and river basin processes, trends in investment KEY POINTS and delivery of various generation sources, and recommendations for improved governance, policies, • The Mekong River supports the world’s and implementation mechanisms — to illustrate most productive freshwater fishery and how those components can collectively accelerate delivers sediments that maintain the delivery of sustainable power systems in a region. delta, a crucial part of Vietnam’s economy And that region is one of the places in the and regional food security. world where achieving more-sustainable energy • Continuation of the current hydropower development is most critically and urgently needed. trajectory would lead to the loss of nearly The Mekong River is the world’s most productive half of the Mekong’s migratory fish freshwater fishery and its delta is vital for Vietnam’s biomass and drastically reduce sediment agriculture and economy, as well as for regional food flows so that half of the delta could be security. Both the fisheries and the delta, in addition underwater by the end of this century. to many riverside communities, are at risk of suffering • Recent studies indicate that the region major negative impacts if hydropower development can meet its future electricity demands continues along its current trajectory, particularly with low carbon power systems that do with a few extremely high impact dams, such as not require high-impact hydropower Sambor, in the planning process (see Box 7.1). Here dams on the mainstem or the remaining we show that those losses are not the regrettable- free-flowing tributaries. but-necessary trade-offs required for regional 7.2 THE MEKONG AND ITS and Cambodia before entering the ocean at its delta economic growth. Rather, countries in the Mekong RESOURCES in Vietnam (Figure 7.1). The river’s discharge, ranked • System planning can identify hydropower region can have both low-carbon power systems 10th in the world, is driven by the highly seasonal options that will have minimal additional The Mekong River supports the largest wild that fuel growth and reduce poverty and a Mekong monsoon rains and has one of the greatest variations impacts on fisheries and sediment. freshwater fishery in the world and a delta with River that retains its incredible productivity and between high and low flows among large rivers. highly productive agriculture and aquaculture. These • Although there are signs that the diversity. Many opportunities for more-sustainable Historically, the Mekong carried the tenth largest globally significant food resources are critical to renewable revolution is taking hold in the energy development have already been missed due natural sediment load in the world, depositing 160 regional stability and are maintained by the Mekong’s Mekong region, decisions in the next few to the lack of a system-scale approach to hydropower megatons (Mt)/yr downstream and maintaining a water, the sediment and nutrients it carries, and the years on highly impactful dams such as siting. Going forward, the region does not need to delta that is an economic powerhouse. The delta Sambor could preclude more balanced floodplains it flows across. continue down this path of missed opportunities and supports 21 million people and provides nearly a outcomes. Coordinated and proactive significant negative impacts that could have been The Mekong is 4,800 kilometres long — making it the quarter of Vietnam’s GDP. Its cropland produces policies and planning are needed to avoided. However, decisions made in the next few 12th longest river in the world — and winds through more than half Vietnam’s staple crops ensure that countries can pursue a more years will lock in one energy trajectory or the other. six countries with a population of 70 million. The river and the majority of its rice exports — a significant sustainable energy path. The time is now to ensure that the region follows a starts as glacial meltwater from the Tibetan plateau amount given that the country is among the 1 sustainable path from this point forward. and runs through China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, © WWF - Canon / Greg Funnell world’s leading rice exporters .
78 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 79 CHAPTER 7 FISH AND GRIDS: SUSTAINABLE POWER FOR THE MEKONG REGION
7.1. The Mekong River basin The Mekong basin is home to 850 species of fish, as two of the central engines that keep the factory MekongMekong River River LowerLower Mekong Mekong Basin Basin second only to the Amazon — a basin that is nearly running. These ecosystems also illustrate how three seven times larger. Among that diversity are some characteristics of a functioning river fuel this food ! ! ! ! of the largest freshwater fish on the planet. The production and diversity: ! ! HanoiHanoi O eratingO erating da s da s herbivorous Mekong giant catfish can grow up to 300 LuangLuang Prabang Prabang • The flow of the Mekong includes not only UnderUnder construction construction da s da s ! ! Flow: ! ! kilograms — larger than most brown bears. The giant Pak PakBeng Beng !!!! LAOSLAOS water, but also sediment and nutrients. PotentialPotential da s da s ! ! ! ! freshwater stingray can weigh twice as much as the LuangLuang Prabang !Prabang! Chengdu onChengdu on hydro ower hydro ower da s da s giant catfish and could cover a four-door car. Beyond • Lateral connectivity between the river and the XayaburiXayaburi!!!! CitiesCities ! ! fish, the river supports an impressive richness of landscape: This connectivity allows the flow of !!!! ! ! the Mekong to deposit nutrients and sediment in Free lowingFree lowing rivers rivers ! ! ! !! ! ! ! reptiles, amphibians, birds, and mammals, including Pak PakLay Lay ! ! ! ! the largest and most viable of the three remaining lakes, across floodplains, and on the delta. Where RiversRivers with with good good Pak PakChom Chom ! ! !! !! ! ! 2 connectivityconnectivity status status ! ! ! ! populations of freshwater Irrawaddy dolphins . lateral connectivity exists, fish can leave the river ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! INDIAINDIA VientianeVientiane! ! to use highly productive floodplain habitats and I actedI acted rivers rivers ! ! In addition to giant fish, the Mekong’s diverse fish then return to the river. Rivers Rivers on onle t le t anel anel are are not not colored colored ! ! fauna supports a massive harvest. The lower basin by theirby their connectivity connectivity status status ! ! • Much of the sediment ! ! ! ! yields more than 2 million tons of wild capture fish Longitudinal connectivity: GongguoqiaoGongguoqiao ! ! XiaowanXiaowan ! ! annually, representing nearly 20% of the global that builds the delta is derived from mountains !!!! ! ! Da NangDa Nang ManwanManwan CHINACHINA freshwater fish harvest. The annual Mekong harvest is thousands of kilometers upstream and must be ! Dachaoshan! Dachaoshan ! ! ! ! ! ! valued at over US$11 billion and provides the primary carried by the river. Similarly, a high number of !!!! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! source of protein and livelihoods (or both) for tens of the Mekong’s fish species — including many of ! Nuozhadu! Nuozhadu ! ! ! ! Ban BanKoum Koum ! ! MYANMARMYANMAR !!!!!! 3 ! Jinghong! Jinghong ! ! millions of people . the most important for the fish harvest — require VIETNAMVIETNAM ! ! Lat SouaLat Soua long distance migrations, moving between ! ! ! ! THAILANDTHAILAND ! ! The productivity of both the delta and the lower NaypyidawNaypyidaw spawning habitat, often far upstream, and LuangLuang Prabang Prabang HanoiHanoi ! !!! !! ! ! ! ! basin fisheries are driven by the river’s flow regime Sekong RiverSekong River ! ! Pak PakBeng Beng! ! DonDon Sahong Sahong !! !! productive habitats where juvenile fish rear and LAOSLAOS ! ! ! ! and hydrological connectivity. The delta was created XayaburiXayaburi StungStung Treng Treng!! !! grow, often low in the basin, such as Tonle Pak PakChom Chom ! ! by thousands of years of the river depositing nutrient- Pak PakLay Lay! !! ! ! ! LowerLower Sesan Sesan 2 2 Sap Lake. VientianeVientiane ! ! ! !!! !! rich sediment as it flowed into the sea, and the SanakhamSanakham! ! YangonYangon ! ! ! ! ! ! SamborSambor !! !! delivery of nutrients and sediments to the lower river THAILANDTHAILAND ! ! These characteristics can all be dramatically ! ! ! ! drives aquatic food webs, which underpin both the ! ! affected by dams, so the diversity and productivity productive inland and coastal fisheries. ! Ban! BanKoum Koum of the Mekong River now face an uncertain future ! ! TonleTonle Sap Sap Lake; Lake; CAMBODIACAMBODIA Lat SouaLat Soua No location illustrates this better than Tonle Sap due to the dramatic, ongoing expansion of BangkokBangkok OCLQTƃQQFOCLQTƃQQF PhnomPhnom Penh Penh DonDon Sahong Sahong extentextent of lakeof lake Lake in Cambodia (Figure 7.1). For half the year, the hydropower dams. ! ! CPF/GMQPIKPCPF/GMQPIKP Ho HoChi ChiMinh Minh City City StungStung Treng Treng lake drains through the Tonle Sap River downstream ! ! lightlight blue blue SamborSambor to the Mekong. But, in the monsoon season, the PhnomPhnom Penh Penh Mekong rises high enough that it forces the Tonle VIETNAMVIETNAM CAMBODIACAMBODIA Ho HoChi ChiMinh Minh City City Sap River to reverse course, flowing in the direction MekongMekong Delta Delta formerly known as “upstream” and filling the lake 0 0 250250 500km500km 0 0 125125 250km250km with Mekong water. The Tonle Sap Lake’s surface area swells to three- to five-times its dry season size and it quadruples in depth — from two meters to eight. Mekong River Lower Mekong Basin As the lake expands, the raw materials for fish 7.1. Map of the Mekong basin (left) and Lower Mekong Basin (right). production flow in: water, nutrients, adult female fish Mainstem hydropower dams (existing, under construction and ready to spawn, and larval or juvenile fish that were potential) are shown on the left map while the right map shows mainstem and tributary dams. Note that the Don Sahong dam, on spawned upstream and have been riding the rising the Mekong in southern Laos, spans one channel in a multi-channel tide downstream. The expanding lake inundates the section of the river. The right map color codes channels based on surrounding forest, and fish gain access to its organic their value for Connectivity Status Index (sensu Grill et al. 2019). For example, the Sekong tributary, near the Cambodia-Laos border, is material: leaves, fruits, and insects. Months after colored blue as it remains a free-flowing river. the rains stop, the lake begins to drain back toward the Mekong carrying an incredible bounty of fish. The lake also acts as a major flood buffer protecting the Mekong Delta.
The Mekong is an incredible organic factory of food
production with the delta and Tonle Sap Lake serving © Roland Seitre / naturepl.com / WWF
80 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 81 CHAPTER 7 THE VISION
7.3 HYDROPOWER RISKS TO Meanwhile, dam construction has continued apace: MEKONG BASIN RESOURCES in 2013, Laos notified the MRC of its intention to build the Don Sahong Dam on the Mekong just The economies in the Mekong region are growing above the border with Cambodia (Figure 7.1) and rapidly, between 6-8% per year, and the IEA expects construction began in 2015. In 2017, Laos began a doubling of electricity demand in the ASEAN region to move forward on two other mainstem dams: 4 until 2040 . Hydropower has long been central to Pak Beng and Pak Lay. Cambodia is considering the region’s power supply: Thailand began building options for dams at Sambor and Stung Treng, which hydropower in the 1970s and 1980s, followed by would be the closest dams to the Tonle Sap and Vietnam in the 1990s, Laos since 2000, and most the delta and would be among the most damaging recently Cambodia. Collectively, the four countries hydropower dams ever constructed (see Box 7.1). of the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), have frequently looked to hydropower as the lowest cost way to Construction of tributary dams has continued, and expand capacity and achieve energy security. Today, the impacts have prompted scientists to highlight BOX 7.1 dozens of dams have been built on tributaries of the another risk: the trapping of sand and other Mekong with dozens more in some stage of planning. sediment in dam reservoirs. Studies showed that China began building dams on the upper Mekong, as of 2015, dam construction was already depriving SAMBOR DAM AND PROMISING SOLAR ALTERNATIVES the delta of at least half of the historical supply of known locally as the Lancang, in the 1990s and has In October 2016, the Cambodian government authorized a Memorandum of Understanding with sediment and that construction of all the planned now built six dams on the mainstem. the locally based Royal Group to undertake studies on the 2,600 MW Sambor hydropower project dams would lead to a greater than 90% depletion. (Figure 7.1). Based on a feasibility study by the former developer China Southern Power Grid While some tributary dams generated controversy, Together with other pressures such as sand mining, Company, this would be one of the largest dam projects in the region, including an 18 km long conflict around hydropower increased considerably scientists forecast that this reduction would dam and an 82 km long reservoir. with the first proposed dam on the mainstem in the significantly contribute to the projected loss of more LMB, the 1,285 MW Xayaboury Dam in northern Laos. than half of the delta to sea level rise by the end of The Sambor reach of the Mekong River is the Within the last few years, rapid price drops In 2010, Laos notified the Mekong River Commission the century. River bank and coastal erosion, river migratory corridor that experiences the largest have made solar power a viable alternative to (MRC) of its intention to build a mainstem dam, as bed incision, land subsidence, and other problems annual movement of biomass on the planet, and the Sambor. Cambodia’s first utility-scale solar PV required under the agreement establishing the MRC. have already begun to emerge in the delta at an Sambor project is expected to substantially reduce plant (Bavet, 10 MW) is already operational and The MRC was created in 1995 by the four countries 8 alarming rate . fish stocks and fish capture. Given its proximity has reached grid parity with new hydropower of the LMB to “jointly manage the shared water It is clear that the Mekong basin has significant to the Tonle Sap and the delta — and its position projects. Solar and existing reservoir resources and the sustainable development of the untapped hydropower potential: building all between them and upstream spawning grounds — hydropower plants complement each other Mekong River,” including hydropower resources. proposed dams would supply another 260,000 the Sambor reach has been called the “least suitable very well given Cambodia’s monsoon climate. Myanmar and China did not join, but maintain GWh/yr to the region. However, hydropower place for a physical barrier in the Mekong Basin” New solar farms can be built in less than one observer status5. development has carried a steep price in terms of and is expected to have the “largest impact on the year, substantially accelerating energy access Laos’ notification of its intention to build the first people displaced and losses of fish and sediment. Mekong fishery of any of the mainstream dams.” It and economic development. dam on the lower Mekong sparked controversy, would effectively convert 82 km of river into a lake Continued energy development along the current The Natural Heritage Institute has provided particularly from downstream countries. In response, through which fish larvae could not drift, trap most path would likely result in unacceptably high a detailed proposal for a floating solar PV of the sediment uncaptured by upstream dams, and the MRC funded a Strategic Environmental impacts on riverside communities, the delta, project on the reservoir of Lower Sesan 2 significantly change downstream geomorphology Assessment (SEA) for Mekong mainstem hydropower, migratory fish, as well as the food supply and as part of the alternative power that could and flow dynamics9. assessing not just Xayaboury but ten other proposed livelihoods they support. substitute for Sambor12. For this current report, mainstem dams in the lower Mekong (Figure 7.1). The renewable revolution — both the global trends Fishermen, traders, and others for whom fishing we assessed the potential of floating solar on The SEA found that while completion of the 11 dams and its initial green shoots in the Mekong region is the primary source of livelihood would be most all Mekong reservoirs, following the method would reduce basin-scale biomass of migratory fish 13 — suggests that a different future is possible. In directly affected, but fisheries account for nearly used in a recent World Bank publication and by nearly half (42%) and have serious implications for the next section, we review results of planning and 12% of Cambodia’s GDP and contribute more to found the potential for nearly 30,000 GWh/ biodiversity in the basin, the amount of electricity 10 modeling studies that identify a path toward power the country’s economy than rice production . year from floating solar on Mekong basin generated would meet only 6-8% of the region’s systems that are low carbon and low cost with Upstream, the dam’s reservoir would inundate reservoirs (see Annex 2 for methods and a projected energy demand in 20256. relatively low additional impacts on the Mekong what is probably the most biodiverse stretch of the table of PV potential on Mekong reservoirs). Mekong or any other large Asian river, including While a preliminary estimate, for perspective, Through a MRC-led consultation and dialogue and its resources. While the Mekong has so far unique landscapes such as the Mekong Flooded that value is double the generation from process, various changes have been made to the been notable primarily for missed opportunities Forest and Stung Treng wetlands11. This would all current dams in the 3S tributary basin, design of Xayaboury, focused on improving the for strategic planning to reveal better options (Box affect the habitat of the Irrawaddy dolphin and comprising the Sesan, Srepak, and Sekong passage of both fish and sediment7. However, even as 7.2), the chapter concludes with a discussion of other endangered species, probably leading to rivers, and five times as much as is the dam nears completion, questions remain about how policies, financial mechanisms, and investment their extirpation. anticipated from Sambor. the effectiveness of these solutions as both are largely priorities could lead to strategic planning and
untested in a major tropical river such as the Mekong. development that achieves the sustainable path. Commons Creative ©
82 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 83 CHAPTER 7 FISH AND GRIDS: SUSTAINABLE POWER FOR THE MEKONG REGION
• Lower impact. The BAU scenario anticipates BOX 7.2 7.4. FEASIBILITY OF LOW-COST, LOW-CARBON AND LOW-IMPACT development of enough hydropower dams to POWER SYSTEMS FOR THE provide an additional 140,000 GWh/year between MISSED OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRATEGIC MEKONG REGION 2020 and 2050, while the SES calls for a 75% PLANNING IN THE MEKONG BASIN reduction in added hydropower generation Here we summarize the results of two modeling compared to BAU, anticipating an additional Several studies have recently identified development pathways that could achieve a better studies, which demonstrate that the region can 35,000 GWh/year during that period (Figure 7.5). balance between hydropower and other resources in the basin. However, until now, these studies meet its projected future electricity demand with This reduction would allow far fewer dams to be have primarily underscored how far the current reality is from those more-balanced options power systems that are low carbon, low cost and low built, making it far easier to avoid damaging (Figure 7.2). impact on the Mekong. They show that the region’s dams, such as Sambor or other mainstream dams future power systems do not need to include those downstream of Xayaburi, and those that would For example, Ziv et al. (2012) modeled different basin, including Lower Sesan 2, produces dams that will have significant additional impacts on block remaining free-flowing tributaries, such potential combinations of 26 proposed dams on 16,000 GWh/year and reduces sand output people, fisheries, sediment, and ecosystems. as the Sekong. the Mekong’s tributaries14. For each combination, by 91%. By examining all other potential
the authors quantified generation and, using a fish combinations of dams, they found that a different The Mekong Power Sector Vision, published by A second study, focused just on Laos, suggests that population and migration model, estimated the combination of dams could have produced the WWF in 201617, compared a Business as Usual (BAU) low-carbon, low-cost power systems are possible impact on biomass and the viability of migratory same generation but only reduced sediment flow scenario with a Sustainable Energy Scenario (SES) for for that country with even lower impacts on the fish species. Building all 26 dams would reduce by 15%15. Schmitt et al. (in press) conducted a meeting the projected 2050 electricity demands of five Mekong18. A team from the University of California’s the biomass of migratory fish in the whole Mekong similar exercise for the entire Mekong and found countries in the Greater Mekong region — Cambodia, Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory basin by nearly 20%. However, by foregoing a few that the suite of existing dams generates 125,000 Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. Compared to (RAEL) compared the business-as-usual capacity dams, fish losses could be minimized to just 3%, GWh/year, but has reduced delivery of sediment BAU, the Sustainable Energy Scenario would be: expansion for Laos, which consists primarily of large while still producing 75% of the total available to the delta from 160 to 50 Mt/year. If it had • Lower carbon. In 2050, fossil fuels would provide hydropower and coal, to a least-cost development energy from tributary dams. This analysis identified been adopted before beginning construction, 65% of the generation under the BAU scenario, option that would meet projected demand and one dam — the 400 MW Lower Sesan 2 — as a strategic planning approaching to dam siting consisting largely of imported fuels. Conversely, export targets through 2030. Even using conservative contributing to half the total impact on fisheries, could have identified a group of dams that would the SES would reduce emissions by 85% with regional projections for costs of various renewable with its individual impact an order of magnitude have produced the same annual generation while 80% of generation coming from renewable generation sources, the least-cost scenario started greater than the second most impactful dam. maintaining twice as much sediment delivery to sources (Figure 7.3). bringing wind and solar PV online as soon as 2022 Lower Sesan 2 began construction the same the delta (100 Mt/year)16. (Figure 7.6). In addition to having a far lower impact year Ziv’s paper was published and was • Lower cost. The Levelized Cost of Electricity These examples highlight missed opportunities. on the Mekong by eliminating the need for most completed in 2018. (LCOE) from the SES would be lower than BAU While those specific optimal development hydropower development, the least-cost scenario for most of the time period (Figure 7.4). The SES has Lower Sesan was also highlighted as particularly options are no longer available, there is still was estimated to require US$2 billion less in initially higher capital costs, but lower operating impactful with regard to the sediment budget of significant scope to utilize a system approach so investment than the BAU — and would not require costs due to the dramatically lower reliance on the lower Mekong. Schmitt et al. (2018) found that that future energy development produces ongoing imports of purchased coal. imported fuels. By 2050, the region could be saving the current portfolio of dams in the 3S tributary far more balanced outcomes. approximately US$40 billion per year if it adopted Both studies call for considerable expansion in wind the SES compared to BAU. and solar in the Mekong region, which raises potential
7.2.Schmitt Missed 3s opportunities missed opportunities for system planning to 7.3. Carbon intensities for scenarios of power expansion in the Mekong basin provide more balance GMS carbon intensity comparison
Carbon intensity (t CO2e/MWh)
Sand 0.50 7.3.Comparing the carbon intensity of the 7.2. For the 3S Basin, 0. 5 business-as-usual (BAU) a strategic planning 0. 0 and sustainable energy Actual development trajectory Outcome with strategic planning approach could have 0. 5 scenario (SES; from produced the same WWF 2016). generation as the 0. 0 actual development 0.25 trajectory, but maintained 0.20 eight times as much 16,000 16,000 sand exported from 0.15 1.3 MT/year 11 MT/year GWh/year GWh/year the basin to the 0.10 downstream delta. 0.05 0 2015 201 201 2021 202 2025 202 202 20 1 20 20 5 20 20 20 1 20 20 5 20 20
BAU SES
84 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 85 CHAPTER 7 FISH AND GRIDS: SUSTAINABLE POWER FOR THE MEKONG REGION
7.4. Comparing LCOE for scenarios of power expansion in the Mekong basin concerns about competition with other land uses GMS LCOE for generation 7.5 REDUCING IMPACTS OF ANY GMS LCOE for generation such as agriculture or forests. However, using results FURTHER HYDROPOWER EXPANSION LCOE ($/MWh) 19 LCOE ($/MWh) from Baruch-Mordo et al. (2018) , who assessed the 120 global technical potential of wind and solar on already Although these studies suggest a reduced need 120 7.4. Comparing the for hydropower over various time intervals, the levelized cost of electricity converted lands (see Chapter 2), we found that the 100 100 (LCOE) of the business-as- Mekong region has abundant resources of wind and WWF (2016) projection does anticipate some new usual (BAU) and sustainable hydropower, underscoring that methods to identify 0 energy scenario (SES; solar that could be developed with low impacts on 0 from WWF 2016). land and people. the lowest impact options may remain necessary. 0 System planning approaches could be applied to 0 Collectively, the lower Mekong basin countries of identify the options (individual dams or groups of 0 Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and Thailand have 1,630 0 dams) that can work well across multiple objectives. TWh of low-impact renewable energy potential 20 20 (Figure 7.7; this includes 30,000 GWh from floating Here we describe an example of tradeoff analysis 0 solar; see Box 7.1). This is approximately nine times the to identify which dams from the current portfolio 0 projected additional future hydropower generation in the Mekong could meet a target for hydropower 2015 201 201 2021 202 2025 202 202 20 1 20 20 5 20 20 20 1 20 20 5 20 20
2015 201 201 2021 202 2025 202 202 20 1 20 20 5 20 20 20 1 20 20 5 20 20 in the BAU in the WWF study and nearly three times generation with the lowest impact on sediment. To BAU SES do so, we sequentially integrate energy models with BAU SES the amount of wind and solar anticipated in the SES. Although substituting wind and solar for hydropower river basin models, first identifying what increment of within a grid requires consideration of grid services hydropower generation is needed to support a low- beyond just generation, these results indicate that cost and low-carbon scenarios and then using river 7.5. Generation mixes of two scenarios of power expansion for the Mekong basin there is a large pool of low-impact wind and solar, basin models to identify a set of lower-impact dams BusinessBusiness as usual as (BAU)usual (BAU) which could be developed to contribute to low- that could meet that target. Ideally, this integration carbon, low-cost, and low-impact grids. would happen simultaneously rather than sequentially 1 00 0001 00 000 7.5. Generation over time and mix of generation 1 00 0001 00 000 sources between the ydro business-as-usual (BAU; 7.6. Capacity additions for two power expansion scenarios for Laos 1 00 0001 00 000 SolarSolar top) and sustainable energy Bio scenario (SES; below). Note Bio Business-as-usual scenario for energy capacity 1 200 000 that energy efficiency is a BusinessBusiness asas usualusual scenarioscenario forfor energyenergy capacitycapacity Total investment: 1 200 000 Wind Business as usual scenario for energy capacity $10.75$10.75 billionbillion high priority for the SES expansionexpansionexpansion in inin LaosLaos (incremental (incremental(incremental annual annualannual additions) additions)additions) $10.75$10.75 billion billion
GWh) uclear expansion in Laos (incremental annual additions) GWh) uclear expansion in Laos (incremental annual additions) 1 000 000 and thus overall demand 1 000 000 Gas Gas for the SES is about 30% 000 000 7.6. Comparing capacity iesel FOFO 00 000 00 000 lower than for the BAU. This additions in Laos for a CoalCoal GWh 50005000 $$ will require relatively small 5000 business-as-usual scenario Generation ( Generation Generation ( Generation 00 000 00 000 improvements in efficiency (BAU; top) and least-cost each year until the region 000 000 scenario (bottom). 00 000 00 000 attains levels of efficiency found in other developed 000 000 200 000200 000 Asian countries (from WWF 2016). Megawatts (MW) 20002000 Megawatts (MWh) Megawatts (MWh) Megawatts (MWh) 00 Megawatts (MWh) 10001000 20102010 20152015 20202020 20 020 0 20 020 0 20502050 1000
00 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 20202020 20212021 20222022 202 202 202 202 20252025 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 20 020 0 SustainableSustainable Energy Energy Sector (SES) Sector (SES) 201 201 201 201 2020 2021 2022 202 202 2025 202 202 202 202 20 0 ■■ Coal Coal ■ ■ ydro ower ydro ower ■ ■ Bio ass Bio ass ■ ■ Wind Wind ■ Coal ■ ydro ower ■ Bio ass ■ Wind 1 00 0001 00 000
1 00 000 1 00 000 LeastLeastLeast-cost costcost scenario scenarioscenario for forfor energy energyenergy capacity capacitycapacity expansion Total investment: $8.17$8.17 billionbillion ydro expansionexpansionin Laos (incremental inin LaosLaos (incremental (incrementalannual additions) annualannual additions)additions) $8.17$8.17 billion billion 1 00 000 expansion in Laos (incremental annual additions) 1 00 000 SolarSolar 000 000 BioBio 1 200 0001 200 000 Wind 50005000 GWh) GWh) uclear 1 000 0001 000 000 Gas Gas 000 000
00 000 00 000 iesel FOFO CoalCoal GWh 000 000 Generation ( Generation Generation ( Generation 00 000 00 000 20002000 Megawatts (MWh) Megawatts (MWh) Megawatts (MWh) Megawatts (MWh)
00 000 00 000 Megawatts (MW) 10001000 200 000200 000 00 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 20202020 20212021 20222022 202 202 202 202 20252025 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 20 020 0 00 201 201 201 201 2020 2021 2022 202 202 2025 202 202 202 202 20 0 ■■ Coal Coal ■ ■ ydro ower ydro ower ■ ■ Bio ass Bio ass ■ ■ Wind Wind ■ ■ P P (Solar) (Solar) ■ Geother al 20102010 20152015 20202020 20 020 0 20 020 0 20502050 ■ Coal ■ ydro ower ■ Bio ass ■ Wind ■ P (Solar)
86 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 87 CHAPTER 7 FISH AND GRIDS: SUSTAINABLE POWER FOR THE MEKONG REGION
7.7. Mekong – low-impact wind and solar Construction of the current sequence of 7.6 IMPLEMENTING A SUSTAINABLE To illustrate recent trends, in 2015 Thailand Mekong — low impact wind and solar proposed dams, including Sambor, would further ELECTRICITY EXPANSION FOR THE established a target of 6,000 MW of solar capacity 00 reduce sediment from today’s 50 million tons/ MEKONG REGION by 2036. The country achieved half of that target year down to approximately 13 million tons, in three years and is now increasing its solar target. 00 while adding an additional 75,000 GWh/year of Although hydropower has been a primary source of Since establishing a feed-in tariff in 2017, Vietnam ■ Onshore wind power for the Mekong region and current projections ■ electricity production. However, a process that has added 3 GW of solar and has signed 14 GW of 00 Solar P show a continued expansion of hydropower, ■ Roo to P sought to optimize generation and sediment MoUs with project investors. In mid-2019, Vietnam 500 could produce the same amount of generation dramatically falling costs of other renewables plans to shift to a reverse auction system, which could with almost no additional loss of sediment (see over the last few years are beginning to impact herald a further boom in private investment. Laos and 00 “optimized whole basin” compared to “planned the energy market. Although a transition toward Cambodia are also showing interest in diversifying
TWh/year greater investment in wind and solar is starting in 00 future” in Figure 7.8). This outcome is possible by their power sectors with solar and wind. siting most new hydropower upstream of existing the Mekong, a market-driven shift towards other The potential for these trends to disrupt status 200 dams, thus minimizing losses of sediment to renewables will not automatically equate to a decline quo energy trajectories was brought into sharp relief the river system. However, this approach would in impacts on the river from energy development. 100 by Thailand’s decision in March 2018 to suspend require most of the additional hydropower to The pace and scope of adoption of the renewable negotiation of the power purchase agreement (PPA) 0 be built in China, which does not correspond revolution will vary from country to country, and even for the proposed Pak Beng Dam on the Mekong Ca bodia Thailand ietna Laos to current national plans (e.g., China is slowing if Thailand and Vietnam make a rapid transition, Laos mainstream in Laos. Coupled with Thailand’s its hydropower development, while lower basin and Cambodia may still pursue high-impact projects, 7.7. Low-impact, utility-scale wind and solar energy commitment to boosting investment in domestic countries, particularly Laos and Cambodia are which could have system-scale negative impacts potential available on converted lands in countries in the electricity generation rather than increased imports Lower Mekong Basin. Modeled technologies include focused on increasing hydropower generation). on the Mekong’s resources. Thus, coordinated utility-scale wind and PV and rooftop PV. regional and national planning processes, financial and the fact that it has been the major off-taker for To correspond more closely to the realities mechanisms, shifts in investment priorities, and Laos hydropower, this decision to suspend the PPA of current national objectives, the study also energy diplomacy all have a role to play in ensuring potentially heralds major changes in the region’s examined a scenario that limited additional a rapid transition to a more sustainable energy energy trajectory. (with interacting models that can incorporate hydropower expansion to the lower Mekong. development path. In this section we explore data on tradeoffs and performance of projects or These trends are promising, but without coordinated The ability to expand generation in the lower basin mechanisms that can accelerate the region’s sets of projects within the process to select projects and proactive efforts the transition to a more without large impacts on sediment was limited. transition toward power systems that are low cost for capacity expansion). However, the sequential sustainable future is not likely to occur fast enough However, the “optimized lower Mekong” scenario and low carbon with low future impacts on the approach used here illustrates the fundamental or consistently enough across national boundaries to increased generation by approximately 30,000 Mekong River. objectives of integrating planning tools to ensure ensure that the Mekong remains healthy. GWh/year with an additional loss of sediment of that environmental performance of projects on a 10 million tons/year, with the system declining to landscape are considered within the project 40 million tons/year — still four times greater than 7.6.1 The current project-by-project selection process. planned future projections. Although the increase approach to Mekong hydropower 7.8. Various scenarios for expanding in generation of the optimized lower Mekong Most dams in Laos and Cambodia are built under Schmitt et al. (in press) used a genetic algorithm hydropower in the Mekong basin coupled to a network sediment transport model to scenario is lower than that of the planned future, Mekong scenarios Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT) agreements. explore tradeoffs between hydropower generation it is comparable to the increase in LMB BOOT agreements usually include a foreign Current and sediment delivery to the delta20. This approach hydropower generation anticipated in the O ti i ed whole basin developer, which funds and constructs the project, can identify the portfolio of dams that minimize the Sustainable Energy Scenario in WWF (2016). 50 earns profit on the sale of hydropower from the loss of sediment for any level of energy generation, project over a period of decades, and then turns the Thus, methods such as this could be used to including the optimal sequence of dams to reach 0 asset over to the host government at the end of the meet hydropower targets with fewer impacts on any given level of development. The current dam contractual period. Although Mekong countries could sediment. Although this analysis only focused O ti i ed lower Mekong portfolio already traps around two thirds of the 0 restrict licensing BOOT projects to those consistent on two objectives (generation and sediment), it entire Mekong basin’s historic sediment load, while with a strategic plan, in practice, developers have had should be noted that both the “optimized whole generating 125,000 GWh/yr — mostly from dams 20 significant influence in determining which projects basin” and “optimized lower Mekong” models in the Lancang and in lower Mekong tributaries. Planned uture move ahead, particularly in countries that depend on accomplish the primary objectives for maintaining Sedi ent to delta (Mt/year) 10 As described in Box 7.2, this current portfolio of dams foreign direct investment for economic growth. The migratory fish habitat: avoiding Sambor and is quite far from the optimal sequence, trapping lack of checks and balances in these countries and maintaining the Sekong tributary as free-flowing 0 almost twice as much sediment as the optimal relative dependency on foreign investment has led and connected to the lower basin. Because the 1 1.2 1. 1. 1. 2 portfolio would have for the same generation. to the development of dams on a project-by-project costs of wind and solar have continued to drop Annual generation (GWh x 105) Although that result offers a lesson in missed basis without an overall vision that weighs tradeoffs steeply, it may be that a revised SES would allow opportunities, this approach can still be applied of hydropower generation versus other benefits for an even less-impactful dam portfolio. 7.8. Various scenarios for hydropower expansion in to inform which projects can meet a target for an provided by river resources or compared to other the Mekong and how they perform in terms of generation additional increment of hydropower generation and sediment supply. generation options. with the lowest impact on sediment.
88 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 89 CHAPTER 7
BRINGING IT ALL TOGERHER IN THE MEKONG BASIN
The project-by-project approach to hydropower country’s adoption of a system-scale approach could development in the Mekong creates a situation provide a precedent and inform regional studies and "Continued energy where the basin-wide impacts of Laos and negotiations. However, to date, no Mekong country development along the Cambodia’s future hydropower development are has an effective, cross-cutting institutional platform, current path would likely unable to be quantified or properly avoided and/ which could promote coordinated and programmatic or mitigated. Foreign developers are generally planning scenarios and tradeoff analyses for result in unacceptably not transparent in the sharing of otherwise national energy development and — by extension high impacts on riverside proprietary data around an individual project, — contribute to coordination of the energy mix and making cumulative impact assessments or other hydropower’s role within it at the regional level. communities, the delta, assessments that consider the interacting impacts of migratory fish, as well multiple projects virtually impossible. In Laos, which 7.6.2 A slow shift to renewable energy has an inventory of more than 150 potential dams as the food supply and Compared to other parts of the developing world, in the basin, foreign investors have considerable livelihoods they support." Mekong countries have been slow to incorporate negotiating power and often prefer projects with non-hydropower renewables into their power mixes transmission lines that link assets directly to an despite an abundance of renewable endowments off-taker market rather than pooling power in the (see Figure 7.7). Pushback from well-vested agencies local utility. In Laos, this has slowed the buildout of in Vietnam and a bad experience with feed-in-tariffs an effective power system and actually impeded in Thailand prevented both countries from taking the development of effective national grids, early advantage of falling global prices, which made which constrains the ability of power planners to utility-scale solar and wind economically viable. incorporate other forms of renewable power. Thailand and Vietnam are now incorporating higher The imbalance in negotiating power that favors renewable energy targets into their power mixes and foreign investors also has real-world implications for reducing regulatory barriers, which have historically the management of impacts. Contracts for BOOT protected and subsidized hydropower and coal. projects in Laos and Cambodia often reward the Thailand’s recent turn to domestic production of foreign developer with the majority of income, while renewable energy could wholly shift its interest away the host country government and its neighbors have from imports, as its revised power development plan primary responsibility for managing the project’s reduces annual imports from Laos through 2037 from impacts. These impacts are often felt long before 9,000 MW to just 3,500 MW. the host country gains any significant benefit, Although impacts from projects in Laos and which is often not for decades or even until project Cambodia are of concern to many Thai and ownership reverts to the host countries. Vietnamese stakeholders, neither government has This unbalanced distribution of income prevents fully made the connection to how a system-scale national-level line agencies from building human approach to energy planning could achieve a low- resource capacity and investing in information impact power mix. Given their roles as investors systems related to meteorology and climate and power purchasers, if either Thailand or Vietnam change, which would help investors make sounder were to promote a system-scale approach to energy decisions about the long-term commercial viability planning it could prove catalytic to the whole region. of hydropower projects and reduce risk. Because Laos and Cambodia are demonstrating increased of the Mekong’s transboundary nature — where interest in non-hydropower renewable energy, but impacts of a single dam or a concentration of both have been slow to adopt official targets and upstream dams might materialize hundreds of build the policy pathways to incentivize investment kilometers downstream and in ways that fall in renewable energy. Officials in Laos and Cambodia outside of the traditional purview of cost-benefit Cristofoletti WWF-US Thomas / © often cite nearly verbatim the arguments against analysis — planning must transition towards a more renewables reviewed in Section 6.3. In fact, in coordinated approach that is designed and shared early 2017, officials in Cambodia’s energy planning by various stakeholders in the region. department noted that integration of large-scale While the MRC has the basin-scale focus, solar PV into Cambodia’s power mix was a decade information and tools to guide regional planning away. However, less than a year later, Cambodia and influence site selection, the MRC agreement broke ground on its first utility-scale solar project does not give it that purpose or authority. A single (10 MW) and took steps to clarify guidelines for solar
90 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 91 CHAPTER 7 FISH AND GRIDS: SUSTAINABLE POWER FOR THE MEKONG REGION
BOX 7.3
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE AS A POTENTIAL DRIVER OF THE RENEWABLE REVOLUTION
In 2013, China launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an outbound investment strategy expected to exceed US$1 trillion in total investment volume over the next decade21. China’s stated goals of the BRI are to promote development and cooperation through infrastructure investments in countries along the route of the historic Silk Road, which connected East Asia and Southeast Asia with East Africa, West Asia and Southern Europe.
China’s leaders have pledged that the Belt and planning and coordination, which prioritizes A wind farm in Pakistan developed by China Road Initiative will be green. At the opening renewables development and reduces reliance Three Gorges South Asia of the Belt and Road Forum in 2017, President on hydropower projects with high impacts. Investment Limited (CSAIL), Xi Jinping called for the BRI to “pursue a new Nonetheless, a robust solution will benefit an investment holding company of the China vision of green development and a way of life from engagement not only with host country Three Gorges Corporation and work that is green, low-carbon, circular and stakeholders, but also with relevant Chinese (CTG). As of 2017, CTG had developed 8,000 MW of sustainable.” He reiterated these themes at the agencies and financial institutions, Chinese wind and solar power. 2nd Belt and Road Forum in 2019, calling for the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private pursuit of “open, green and clean cooperation” companies, and a broad range of local and that “promotes[s] green development".22 In 2018, global stakeholders who can help facilitate the Xie Zhenhua, China’s Special Representative for transition to more sustainable development. Climate Change Affairs, emphasized that all BRI • Opportunities exist for engagement with projects should “adopt the latest technologies, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank save resources and energy as much as possible, (AIIB) and Chinese financial institutions and ensure the best performance in emissions involved in the BRI, including the China reduction.”23 Chinese leaders have framed the Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank BRI as a means of achieving the Sustainable of China, and the Industrial and Commercial Development Goals (SDGs) and emphasized the State-owned Assets Supervision and in project development.” China’s support Bank of China. Further work is required to China’s commitment to the success of the Paris Administration Commission (SASAC) — for robust participatory and transparency strengthen environmental review procedures Agreement.24 China is hosting COP15 of the which oversees SOEs — and others. mechanisms would send a strong signal of and transparency requirements, while Convention on Biological Diversity in October commitment to these pledges. establishing policies that promote “green” • Chinese lawmakers should require Chinese 2020, and leaders have promoted a “global push” investments and limit unsustainable projects. SOEs and private companies to disclose • China should seize the opportunity and against the erosion of biodiversity.25 the environmental impacts of their outbound use the BRI to drive progress on climate • The multitude of Chinese agencies However, evidence suggests that existing investment activities. Greater transparency change by facilitating sharing of policy with a role in overseas investment and patterns of Chinese outbound investment fail to enables improved monitoring of company best practices, incentivizing research and environmental regulation must be meet these stated objectives. The overwhelming behavior and generates insights into development on green innovations support granted clearer authorities to assess the majority of China’s overseas energy investments, environmental impacts among the companies system-scale planning for renewable power environmental impacts of Chinese overseas for example, have gone to fossil fuels projects, themselves. systems, and prioritizing financing projects investment and, where necessary, steer including oil, coal, and natural gas projects.26 that are low carbon. Some private companies investment away from environmentally • China should collaborate with national China’s investments in large hydropower in China are global first movers on harmful projects. Rules that implicitly governments to ensure that environmental projects in the Mekong basin in Laos and encourage the outsourcing of unsustainable planning and review procedures provide for renewable energy technology innovation Cambodia threaten fisheries and livelihoods. industries should be eliminated. The broad public participation involving local and should be put at the forefront to lead The imperative — and opportunity — to improve relevant agencies include China’s Ministry communities, civil society actors, and other the efforts of greening BRI. the environmental and social performance of of Ecology and Environment (MEE), stakeholders. China has developed such Chinese outbound investment is enormous. the National Development and Reform mechanisms domestically and has begun Chinese engagement and investment The following recommendations provide a Commission (NDRC), the People’s Bank of to establish participatory institutions for through the BRI promise to transform the roadmap that would allow Chinese leaders to China, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry the BRI. The urgent task going forward will economies of developing countries, but serious meet their pledges for a greener Belt and Road. of Foreign Affairs, China Banking Regulatory be to ensure that these mechanisms are institutional reforms will help to ensure that The focus elsewhere in this report has been on Commission, China Securities Regulatory effective in practice. President Xi promised to this development is as environmentally
improved host country strategic and system-level Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, © Muzaffar Bukhari adopt “widely accepted rules and standards… sustainable as possible.
92 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 93 CHAPTER 7 FISH AND GRIDS: SUSTAINABLE POWER FOR THE MEKONG REGION
investment. Another 60 MW project has recently 7.3). China generally avoids funding capacity- • MDBs and development partners can improve future disruptions, which the government should started construction. Prices agreed to in solar PPAs building programs abroad as they are viewed as effectiveness through better coordination with explore. These include: are now approaching parity with new hydropower a form of “interference,” which China eschews. each other and by supporting capacity building, * Fast tracking PPAs for solar and wind farms and PPAs in Cambodia. Rolling blackouts during United States agencies such as USAID and its transmission infrastructure and system-scale preparing a standard template to ensure PPAs the dry season in 2019 have been attributed to National Renewable Energy Laboratory have regional energy planning. This combination of are “bankable”; underproduction from Cambodia’s hydropower fleet, provided technical assistance on the renewable coordinated investments could also catalyze bolstering the case for further development of solar. energy transition from a national power planning increased private investment in individual power * Refining regulations to promote commercial perspective but have yet to fully engage on the generation assets, especially solar and wind. and industrial rooftop solar; Laos and Cambodia’s power sectors are significantly transboundary aspects of power trade and under-resourced, partially as a result of the project- • Financial institutions should promote system-scale * Allowing Rural Energy Enterprises to power planning. by-project approach to power development studies to guide their assessment of risk incorporate solar into their grids; and discussed above. Existing constraints contribute to and returns. * Stimulate investment in energy efficiency and a lack of human and technical capacity, preventing 7.6.4 Recommendations • While a major expansion of hydropower will establish policies to encourage efficient these countries from pursuing a regular cycle of The challenges and gaps identified above trap sediment and exacerbate risks to the delta, buildings and appliances. power planning, which could reap efficiencies on the can be remedied and doing so would accelerate the region confronts a range of challenges supply and demand sides. Limitations of their grid the adoption of sustainable and strategically (e.g., groundwater pumping that contributes to If governments, partners and investors follow infrastructure — including fragmented transmission coordinated power systems throughout the subsidence and dikes, sluices and barrages that these recommendations, the Mekong region has and limited investment in modern smart-grid Mekong. This analysis suggests that: constrain sediment deposition) and thus a diverse the opportunity to secure a brighter energy future management equipment — constrain their ability to • Governments should prioritize the assessment set of interventions are required to maintain the with low-carbon power systems that can reliably manage the integration of high levels of and development of low cost, low impact resilience of the delta. meet the needs of growing economies and maintain variable renewable energy. alternatives to planned high impact hydropower the productivity and diversity of one of the world’s • Cambodia’s 2019 dry season energy crisis dams on the Mekong mainstream as well as the most incredible river systems. spurred a group of renewable energy advocates 7.6.3 Investment, MDBs, and development remaining free-flowing tributaries, such as the to develop recommendations for how to rapidly partner engagement Sekong. These dams would negatively impact promote the expansion of solar PV to help avoid In all four Lower Mekong countries, technical people and river resources, including fisheries assistance and targeted investment from and sediment – particularly those with severe, development partners could accelerate the system-scale impacts such as Sambor. renewable transition. The Asian Development ENDNOTES 12 NHI 2017; (see note 9). Keynote Speech by H.E. Xi Jinping Present of • Governments in the Mekong region can 13 The World Bank (2018): “Where sun meets water: the People’s Republic of China at the Opening Bank (ADB) has been instrumental in promoting improve their capacity to consider tradeoffs 1 Vietnam Baseline Assessment in ICEM, A., 2010. Floating solar market report.” Retrieved from: https:// Ceremony of the Second Belt and Road Forum for solar in Cambodia, for instance. However, initiatives MRC Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/ International Cooperation by creating national platforms responsible of hydropower on the Mekong mainstream. where-sun-meets-water (Apr. 26, 2019). from outside actors generally lack alignment. Hanoi, Viet Nam, ICEM, Australia. 14 Ziv, Guy, Eric Baran, So Nam, et al. (2012): “Trading- 23 The State Council Information Office (2018): for sharing information and providing them 2 WWF. 2010. River of Giants: giant fish of the off fish biodiversity, food security, and hydropower in “SCIO Briefing on China's Policies and Actions Multilateral development banks, such as the World with sufficient bureaucratic power to mediate Mekong. WWF Greater Mekong the Mekong River Basin.” Proceedings of the National for Addressing Climate Change.” Retrieved from: 3 S. Nam et al. 2015. Lower Mekong fisheries Academy of Sciences 109 (15): 5609-5614. http://english.scio.gov.cn/pressroom/2018-11/27/ Bank and ADB, often provide technical assistance to 15 between various ministries on the multi-sector estimated to be worth around $17 billion a year. Schmitt, R.J., Bizzi, S., Castelletti, A. and Kondolf, content_74212502_2.htm. establish feed-in tariffs and auctions for renewable Catch and Culture Volume 21, No. 3 G.M., (2018). Improved trade-offs of hydropower and 24 Speech by H.E. Xi Jinping, Xinhua. “Work impacts of hydropower and broader energy 4 IEA (2017a): “Southeast Asia Energy Outlook sand connectivity by strategic dam planning in the Together to Build a Community of Shared assets and also support a pipeline of individual options. If sufficiently empowered, these 2017.” Retrieved from: https://www.iea.org/ Mekong. Nature Sustainability, 1(2), p.96. Future for Mankind: (Jan. 19, 2017). Retrieved southeastasia/ 16 R. Schmitt, S. Bizzi, A. Castelletti, J. Opperman, and from: http://www.xinhuanet.com//english/2017- projects. While pilot investments are needed, platforms could lead on national sustainable 5 Mekong River Commission. "About MRC". G. M. Kondolf (in press). Planning dam portfolios for 01/19/c_135994707.htm?from=singlemessage.; MDBs could facilitate broader change by focusing Retrieved 21 December 2017. Retrieved from: low sediment trapping shows limits for sustainable Phillips, Tom (2017): “China’s Xi Jinping says development strategies as well as coordinate http://www.mrcmekong.org/about-mrc/ hydropower in the Mekong. Science Advances Paris climate deal must not be allowed to fail.” resources on increasing transmission and 6 Mekong River Commission. “Strategic 17 WWF. (2016). Mekong Power Sector Vision 2050; The Guardian. Retrieved from: https://www. with the Mekong River Commission and other Environmental Assessment of Mainstream Mekong Greater Mekong Programme; http:// theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/19/chinas-xi- distribution capacity, and investing in the capacity regional partners to design low-carbon, low- Dams.” Retrieved from: http://www.mrcmekong. greatermekong.panda.org/our_solutions/2050 jinping-says-world-must-implement-paris- and conditions needed to increase private org/about-mrc/completion-of-strategic- powersectorvision/ climate-deal impact development plans consistent with the cycle-2011-2015/initiative-on-sustainable- 18 Avila, N., Kittner, N, Shirley, R, Dwyer, M., Sager, J., 25 The Hindu Business Line (2019): “Macron, Xi urge investment in power generation. hydropower/strategic-environmental- Roberts, D., Kammen, D.M. In press. Power expansion ‘global push’ to half biodiversity loss.” Retrieved opportunities emphasized in this chapter. assessment-of-mainstream-dams/ alternatives for economic diversity and resilience in from: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ 7 Cronin, Richard and C. Weatherby (2015): “Letters Lao PDR.; Avila, N., N. Kitnner, R. Shirley, M. Dwyer, news/world/macron-xi-urge-global-push-to-halt- Some key development partners have provided • Laos and Cambodia should consider clarifying from the Mekong: Time for a new narrative on D. Roberts, J. Sagerand, D. M. Kammen. “Distributed biodiversity-loss/article26644996.ece technical assistance to build both management Mekong hydropower.” The Stimson Center. Renewables Offer Flexibility and Sustainability for 26 Zhou, Lihuan, S. Gilbert, Y. Wang, M. Muñoz the contracts for BOOT hydropower projects Retrieved from: https://www.stimson.org/sites/ Development in Lao PDR.” Lower Mekong Public Cabré, K. P. Gallagher (2018): “Moving the Green capacity and power infrastructure, but assistance to require data-sharing with the national default/files/file-attachments/Letters_from_the_ Policy Initiative. Retrieved From: (http://www.lmppi. Belt and Road Initiative: From Words to Actions.” Mekong_Oct_2015.pdf edu.vn/cache/1301526_Policy%20Brief%202.pdf World Resources Institute. Retrieved from: from the United States and China could be more government and (where relevant) the Mekong 8 Anthony, E.J., Brunier, G., Besset, M., Goichot, 19 Baruch-Mordo, S., Kiesecker, J., Kennedy, C.M., https://www.wri.org/publication/moving-green- M., Dussouillez, P. and Nguyen, V.L., (2015). Oakleaf, J.R. and Opperman, J.J., (2018): “From Paris belt-and-road-initiative-from-words-to-actions; focused on the renewable transition. Funding River Commission so that these projects feed Linking rapid erosion of the Mekong River delta to practice: sustainable implementation of renewable Hilton, Isabel (2019): “How China’s Big Overseas under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has to to human activities. Scientific reports, 5, p.14745. energy goals. Environmental Research Letters.” Initiative Threatens Global Climate Progress.” into future system-scale planning efforts. 9 Natural Heritage Institute. (2017). Sambor 20 Schmitt et al. in press (see note 16) Yale Environment 360. Retrieved from: https:// date primarily supported large-scale hydropower Furthermore, countries should strive to allocate hydropower dam alternatives assessment. NHI. 21 Hillman, Jonathan E. (2018): “How Big Is China’s Belt e360.yale.edu/features/how-chinas-big-overseas- 10 Mekong River Commission. “Fisheries.” Retrieved and Road?” center for strategic and international initiative-threatens-climate-progress. and coal projects in Mekong countries, but the future concessions in a more transparent and from: http://www.mrcmekong.org/topics/ studies. Retrieved from: https://www.csis.org/ BRI could potentially be a driver of more strategic fisheries/ analysis/how-big-chinas-belt-and-road. inclusive process and ensure they are informed 11 Bezuijen, M.R., Timmins, R.J. and Seng, T. eds., 22 Full Text of President Xi's Speech at Opening of Belt investment, which prioritizes power systems that by strategic analyses of cumulative impacts (2008): “Biological surveys of the Mekong River and Road Forum, Xinhua (May 14, 2017). Retrieved between Kratie and Stung Treng towns, northeast from: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017- are low carbon, low cost and low impact (see Box and options. Cambodia, 2006-2007.” WWF Greater Mekong, 05/14/c_136282982.htm; Working Together to Deliver Cambodia Country Programme. a Brighter Future for Belt and Road Cooperation,
94 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 95 CHAPTER 2 THE VISION 8 Chapter
CONCLUSIONS
96 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 97 Ola Jennersten / WWF-Sweden / Jennersten Ola CHAPTER 8 XXXXXXXXX
Within a very short time, the vision of low-cost, low-carbon, and low-impact BOX 8.1 power systems has become a credible possibility. Much of the renewable energy THE ENERGY TRANSITION IN CHILE revolution is already underway. In the mid-2000s, Chile relied primarily on hydropower and on imported coal and natural gas. In 2006, a new auctions mechanism was introduced to create a more transparent way to match power supply and demand, and to facilitate the entry of new generating companies. Although this transition received some initial high-impact hydropower dams have been momentum from policies — ranging from national suspended with development shifting toward options The first auction resulted in average prices Six years after these peak prices, the situation in renewable energy requirements and investments with lower impacts. of US$53/MWh. The country was facing high Chile has changed dramatically. High power prices in research, to global climate commitments — it is demand growth, but dependence on fossil fuel triggered significant new investment, with solar Costa Rica illustrates how a country with a grid that now driven as much by technological innovation and imports, regulatory uncertainties, and growing and wind providing most of the new capacity since is already low carbon can diversify sources and marketplace competition as by policy1. opposition to large energy projects were 2014. The last auction, in 2017, resulted in average further reduce the impacts of future expansion. holding up investments. Gas imports were prices of US$33/MWh — a quarter of the 2013 Today it is possible to envision a future in which The country’s grid is currently 98% renewable with interrupted, and coal and hydropower projects peak price, with all winning bids from wind and electricity systems are accessible, affordable and a carbon intensity of 0.08 tons/MWh2 and leaders were delayed by the courts, environmental solar. Even auctions for nighttime supply are now powering economies with a mix of renewable energy recently announced a goal of becoming carbon- licensing agencies, and government decisions. being won by solar projects, which will contract technologies — including solar, wind, storage and neutral by 2021.3 However, with a high proportion This included major hydropower projects like with existing hydropower stations or install low-impact hydropower. This future will not require of generation from hydropower (75%), many of its HidroAysén (2,750 MW) and coal projects battery storage. the dramatic tradeoffs of past development. Growing rivers have already been dammed. The proposed like Castilla (2,100 MW). electricity demands and climate objectives can be El Diquís Hydroelectric Project (631 MW) would The government has agreed to a phase-out As a consequence, power prices kept rising achieved while avoiding the negative impacts on have fragmented the country’s only remaining large, plan for coal with the energy industry, and the until they reached a peak of US$129/MWh in the Association of Generating Companies expects the world’s remaining free-flowing rivers posed by free-flowing river. Initially suspended in 2011 to 2013 auction. Fortunately, Chile had four key the energy mix by 2030 to be solar PV with 30%, high-impact hydropower, including the displacement allow consultation with indigenous groups about advantages at that point that helped the country hydropower 29%, thermal 25%, wind 12%, and of many communities, and the loss of productive the dam’s impacts, it was indefinitely suspended take advantage of falling solar and wind costs, 6 freshwater fisheries and much of the sediment seven years later. Pointing to slowing demand due and overcome this crisis: other renewables 4%. needed to keep economically crucial deltas above to energy efficiency and changing economic costs, • Excellent resources for solar, wind, and While the drop in power prices is good news for the rising seas. the government concluded that the dam was no other renewables; consumers, the transition has included its share of longer consistent with a least-cost expansion4. Future While there is perhaps no single country that challenges. Many generation projects in different power expansion in Costa Rica will now feature solar, • Policies to promote new renewables, illustrates all components described in this report, stages of preparation were abandoned in the past wind, and geothermal sources, while the country’s initially quite modest with a 2008 renewable many countries are leading the way on various decade, and some existing projects are becoming significant existing fleet of hydropower plants will portfolio standard, but with increasing elements of the renewables transition. Some, obsolete and are at risk of becoming stranded facilitate the expansion of these other sources. ambition over time; including Norway and Iceland, have already achieved assets. Chile has traditionally left investment Meanwhile, consistent with Costa Rica’s emphasis close to 100% renewable power, but challenges • The auction mechanism, which enabled both decisions for new generation projects to the on environmental protection, its most recent low costs through competition and certainty market. Only in 2014-2016 did the government remain to increase the broader sustainability of their hydropower project (Reventazón with 305 MW, for investors, and has seen continued conduct a mapping and prioritization exercise for generation fleet. Others, such as India, have used completed in 2016) included as mitigation the improvements; and hydropower, at a time when interest in hydropower auctions that resulted in record-low costs for solar protection of the nearby Parismina River as a free- was already declining.7 More planning capacity in power to facilitate near-universal access to power. • A sound investment climate, supported by flowing river.5 Encompassing a low-carbon grid, government and guidance for developers could China’s massive expansion of manufacturing and a newly developed coordinated transmission formal protections for rivers, and future expansion have resulted — and could still result — in a much generating capacity for solar and wind created expansion process, that attracted of renewables facilitated by existing hydropower, smoother transition to a low cost, low carbon and economies of scale, contributing to the global drop entrepreneurial companies. Costa Rica is moving strongly toward a power low impact power sector. in costs of those technologies. Portugal is retrofitting system that is low cost, low carbon and low impact. its existing hydropower with pumped storage, and Thailand has committed to a major expansion of Dramatic transitions of a major economic sector, floating solar on its reservoirs. Many countries are such as is now underway for electricity, nearly moving forward on more systematic planning of always present both challenges and unprecedented their power systems, either to ensure that variable opportunities. Until a few years ago, Chile’s power renewables are well integrated into reliable grids, sector appeared to have few choices other than and/or to ensure that their massive expansion relying on large-scale traditional energy technologies, does not produce a public backlash by identifying which were becoming increasingly difficult to build low-impact sites. And a number of planned (Box 8.1). Chile has now managed to reduce power
98 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 99 © Dave Lauridsen CHAPTER 8
costs drastically, while committing to phasing out coal will benefit from reduced pollution and healthier and shifting away from new dams in undeveloped rivers and landscapes, while minimizing the basins — allowing dozens of rivers to remain free- social conflicts that can arise due to climate flowing — and toward solar, an expansion facilitated instability and opposition to projects. by its existing hydropower fleet. Chile will be able to • Developers can facilitate the transition by showcase its success story at the 2019 UN Climate supporting more comprehensive upstream Conference in Santiago de Chile. planning and by improving their own project The example of Chile shows that lower solar and wind assessments using sustainability protocols and costs are necessary, but not sufficient by themselves. safeguards. Developers will benefit from a Smart policy and regulatory frameworks are still pipeline of lower-risk projects and, specifically
needed to speed up the transition, and to ensure that for the hydropower sector, from providing © Ethan Welty it is sustainable. And, in fact, the energy transition higher-value ancillary services. is not yet keeping pace with what is needed. IRENA • Financial institutions can also support more estimates that renewables must reach 85% share of comprehensive planning as a way to develop global generation capacity by 2050 to meet climate a pipeline of lower-risk projects, focusing objectives, which will require a tripling of the rates of their lending on opportunities emerging increase in new wind capacity and a doubling of the from such plans, and requiring their clients to rates of increase of new solar PV capacity from apply ambitious sustainability protocols and recent years8. safeguards. Making direct funding available Achieving the vision will require policy, financial, for such activities can be critical. Financiers will and technical innovations across all countries. benefit from lower-risk projects and, particularly Fortunately, at this stage the feasibility of low- relevant for development banks, accomplish carbon, low-cost and low-impact systems — and diverse objectives, including multiple SDGs. the benefits of achieving them — are becoming Most importantly, the renewable revolution offers clear, creating powerful incentives for different countries the chance, for the first time in history, to groups of stakeholders: achieve universally affordable electricity supplies • Governments can (1) implement system-scale that no longer require people to be exposed planning and licensing focused on integrated to air pollution, resettlement, and the loss of power systems to identify and develop those that livelihoods and traditional landscapes, including are low cost, low carbon and low impact. Through the diverse benefits of healthy rivers. Although this, countries can reassess plans for hydropower countries no longer have to accept these losses to factor in the full value of rivers and consider the as the regrettable-but-unavoidable trade-offs availability of lower impact alternatives; and (2) of economic growth, without proactive efforts, create competitive frameworks to accelerate the opportunities for more-sustainable power systems renewable energy revolution to help them meet will continue to be missed. Transitioning to low- international commitments, most importantly carbon, low-cost, and low-impact systems is not national contributions to the Paris Agreement, only a moral imperative, it is within our reach. It SDGs, and CBD targets. Their citizens will benefit is up to all energy sector stakeholders to make from low-cost electricity needed to improve living it happen by working together to accelerate the standards and drive economies. Further, countries renewable revolution.
ENDNOTES 4 The Costa Rica News (2018): Costa Rica suspends Protection Mechanisms for Rivers.” The World the largest hydroelectric project in Central Wildlife Fund and The Nature Conservancy. 1 IRENA (2019). Innovation landscape for a America indefinitely.” Retrieved from: https:// Washington, D.C. Retrieved from: https://www. renewable-powered future. International thecostaricanews.com/costa-rica-suspends- worldwildlife.org/publications/securing-a-future-that- Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. the-largest-hydroelectric-project-in-central- flows--2 2 Compare your country. Climate Change america-indefinitely/ ; Instituto Costarricense 6 Patel, Sonal (2018): “Chile to Pursue dramatic coal Mitigation Policies. Retrieved from: http:// de Electricidad (2018): “Informe ejecutivo generation reduction.” Power Magazine. Retrieved www.compareyourcountry.org/climate- del plan de expansion de la generacion.” from: https://www.powermag.com/chile-to-pursue- policies?cr=oecd&lg=en&page=2 Retrieved from: https://www.grupoice.com/ dramatic-coal-generation-reduction/ 3 Irfan, Umair (2018): “Costa Rica has an ambitious wps/wcm/connect/f5fd219d-700d-4abc-8422- 7 Minister of Energy, Chile. “Hidoelectricidad new climate policy – but no, it’s not banning fossil ecbd27f9c9fd/Informe+Ejecutivo+PEG2018-2034. Sustentable.” Retrieved from: http://www. fuels.” Vox. Retrieved from: https://www.vox.com/ pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=mrl1q1W hidroelectricidadsustentable.gob.cl/ energy-and-environment/2018/7/17/17568190/ 5 Moir, K. M., M. Thieme and J. Opperman (2016): 8 IRENA 2019; (see note 1). costa-rica-renewable-energy-fossil-fuels- “Securing a Future that Flows: Case Studies of transportation
100 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 101 ANNEX 1 ANNEX 2
Examples of Project Preparation Facilities with potential to finance Methods for spatial analyses early planning at system scale
1. Potential solar generation on reservoirs 2. Ratio of potential for low-impact wind and Host Organization Name of Facility Areas of Involvement on Early (See box 7.1): solar to generation from potential hydropower Planning Finance dams, by country (Figure 5.4) An estimate of the floating solar potential in Climate Investment Clean Technology Fund (CTF) Large-scale financial resources to invest in clean the Mekong basin was calculated for all existing We used a database of potential dams from Zarfl et Funds technology projects in developing countries, which reservoirs. The methodology follows that used al. (2015)7 which provides information on the country contribute to the demonstration, deployment, 1 and transfer of low-carbon technologies with a in the World Bank report ‘Where the Sun and capacity of potential dams. We converted significant potential for long-term greenhouse gas Meets Water: Floating Solar Market Report’. capacity to generation using a capacity factor of emissions savings A dataset for existing reservoirs in the Mekong 0.36. We then summed generation by country and basin was developed by combining two sources: used country-level data from Baruch-Mordo et al. Global Infrastructure n/a Preliminary work to prioritize investments and test a 2 8 Facility project concept through “pre-feasibility” analysis; 1.) Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database (2018) to derive the ratio of generation potential as well as support to legal, regulatory, or institutional and 2.) MRC (2012) and International Rivers (2014)3. from low-impact wind and solar to potential reforms as required to enable successful development In total, 44 reservoirs (from various types of dams, hydropower generation for each country. and/or participation of long-term private capital including irrigation, hydropower, multi-purpose in the financial structure of a particular project dams) across 4 countries (Cambodia, Vietnam, International Bank Energy Sector Management Strategic support in market and regulatory reform, Laos and Thailand ) were identified in the Mekong ENDNOTES 1 for Reconstruction and Assistance Program (ESMAP) power system planning, and integration of regional 2 World Bank Group, ESMAP and also uses 10% efficiency assumption basin with more than 2,000 km of combined 5 Development infrastructure SERIS. 2018. Where Sun Meets Environmental Systems Research surface area. Water: Floating Solar Market Institute (ESRI). 2015. ArcGIS Report—Executive Summary. Release 10.3.1. Redlands, CA. Public-Private Infrastructure Support the creation of a sound enabling environment Washington, DC: World Bank. 6 Joint Research Centre-European Floating solar potential was calculated for three 2 Advisory Facility (PPIAF for the provision of infrastructure services by the private Lehner, B. et al. High- Comission. Photovoltaic different proportions of reservoir surface area to resolution mapping of the Geographic Information System sector world’s reservoirs and dams (PVGIS) 2015. http://re.jrc. be covered by solar panels:1%, 5%, and 10%. The for sustainable river-flow ec.europa.eu/pvgis/ (accessed Inter-American INFRAfund Creating enabling environments and building management. Front. Ecol. April 1, 2019). potential peak capacity or nominal power was then Environ. 9, 494-502 (2011). 7 Zarfl, C., Lumsdon, A.E., Berlekamp, Development Bank institutional capacity 3 derived by multiplying the surface area assumed Dataset from 1. Hydropower J., Tydecks, L. and Tockner, K., 2015. Project Database. Mekong A global boom in hydropower dam NDC Invest Help public and private sector stakeholders to develop available for solar panel modules by the efficiency River Comission (MRC), construction. Aquatic Sciences, Vientiane, Lao PDR and 2. 77(1), pp.161-170. 4 investment plans and programs to reflect today’s and levels of currently available PV modules (10% ). International Rivers, 2014. 8 Baruch-Mordo, S., Kiesecker, J., tomorrow’s climate needs and circumstances Spreadsheet of Major Dams Kennedy, C.M., Oakleaf, J.R. and The geographic coordinates of each reservoir’s in China [WWW Document]. Opperman, J.J., (2018). From Int. Rivers ttps://www. Paris to practice: sustainable IDB Invest Sustainable Infrastructure Accelerate sustainable infrastructure development centroid were identified using a GIS5. The internationalrivers.org/ implementation of renewable Program (SIP) in the region by catalyzing private sector investment resources/spreadsheet-of- energy goals. Environmental geographic coordinates of each reservoir were major-damsin-china-7743 for the implementation of the Nationally Determined Research Letters. (accessed 7.4.17). Contributions (NDCs) of the Paris Agreement then uploaded in the PVGIS tool (Photovoltaic 4 Where Sun Meets Water: Geographic Informational System)6 which estimates Floating Solar Market Report Asian Development Bank Asia Pacific Project Upstream sector reform work linked to potential projects the average yearly energy production of a PV Preparation Facility (AP3F) that are being prepared or soon will be, including advising client countries on enabling reforms (such as system connected to an electricity grid. The tool legislation and regulation frameworks, and possible use determines energy production based on solar of guarantees or incentive schemes), appropriate PPP radiation, temperature, wind speed and the type of project selection criteria, staff training, and market and/ PV module. The PVGIS tools assumes 14% loss of or stakeholder awareness energy in the system in addition to losses that are African Development Bank Africa50 Project Financing at earlier stages of projects, engaging with calculated from temperature, irradiance and angle Development stakeholders along the deal cycle, with a particular focus of incidence. Thus, for each level of surface area (1%, on mobilizing political support 5%, and 10%), the average annual energy generation NEPAD-Infrastructure Supports the development of regional and continental potential (GWh) was estimated for each reservoir. Project Preparation Facility infrastructure to prepare high-quality viable The floating solar potential ranging from 1, 5 and (NEPAD-IPPF) transboundary projects in energy, transboundary water 10% of reservoir surface area sums to 3,000, 14,900 resources, transport and ICT. and 29,800 respectively (Table A1). European Bank for Infrastructure Project Project preparation, policy dialogue and institutional Reconstruction and Preparation Facility (IPPF) strengthening to address both public sector Development infrastructure projects as well as PPPs
102 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 103 ANNEX 2
Table A1. Potential generation from floating solar PV in reservoirs of the Lower Mekong basin
Annual GWh
Name Reservoir surface area 1% Area 5% Area 10% Area (km2)
Nam Ngum 1 369.4 510 2,549 5,098 Xelabam 0.6 1 4 8 Xeset 1 0.1 0 1 1 Theun-Hinboun 6.3 9 43 86 Nam Ngay 0.3 0 2 3 Nam Ngum 2 122.2 155 776 1,552 Nam Lik 1-2 24.4 34 170 339 Theun-Hinboun expansion 6.3 9 43 86 Theun-Hinboun exp. (NG8) 105.0 144 719 1,439 Plei Krong 53.3 75 373 746 Yali 64.5 88 439 877 Se San 3 3.4 5 24 47 Se San 3A 8.8 12 60 121 Se San 4 58.4 82 409 818 Se San 4A 1.8 2 12 25 Buon Tua Srah 37.1 49 243 486 Buon Kuop 5.6 8 38 76 Sre Pok 3 17.7 24 121 242 Sre Pok 4 3.8 5 26 51 Huai Kum 2.4 3 16 33 Pak Mun 60.0 86 432 864 Ubol Ratana 401.2 590 2,949 5,898 Lam Ta Khong P.S. 37.0 53 265 529 Nam Pung 15.8 23 115 229 Chulabhorn 7.0 10 49 99 Sirindhorn 235.5 344 1,719 3,438 Haixihai 4.0 6 28 56 Zibihe 7.9 11 53 107 Nam Oun 38.4 56 282 564 Nong Han Lake 73.2 107 534 1,069 Lam Pao 202.3 299 1,497 2,994 Lam Chang Han 4.8 7 36 71 Lamphraphloeng 9.6 13 67 134 Lamnangrong 11.6 17 84 167 Houayho 31.0 44 219 437
Total 2,878.96 14,394.80 28,789.61
104 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CHAPTER 2 River © 2010 Richard Hamilton Smith, solar panels/turbine iStockphoto © 2019 LP
natural capital PROJECT
106 CONNECTED AND FLOWING