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Connected & Flowing THE VISION CONNECTED & FLOWING A RENEWABLE FUTURE FOR RIVERS, CLIMATE AND PEOPLE CONNECTED AND FLOWING 117 CHAPTER 2 THE VISION CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 1. INTRODUCTION 10 2. THE VISION 14 Lead author IUCN: James Dalton, Reviewers Jeff Opperman, WWF Rebecca Welling The following people 3. THE RENEWABLE REVOLUTION 28 served as reviewers (of this report Primary co-authors University of California, or earlier versions of it) and helped AND THE CHANGING ROLE FOR Joerg Hartmann (independent Berkeley: Daniel Kammen, strengthen the report. The content HYDROPOWER consultant), Mark Lambrides Isa Farrall and positions expressed in this (TNC), and Juan Pablo Carvallo report, however, are those of the (University of California, Stanford University and the 4. ACHIEVING LOW CARBON, 38 authors and do not necessarily Berkeley) Natural Capital Project: reflect the perspectives of LOW IMACT GRIDS Rafael Schmitt Spatial Analysis those who provided input. Emily Chapin, TNC University of Manchester: 56 Bruce Aylward (AMP Insights), 5. GLOBAL BENEFITS FOR RIVERS Julien Harou Additional Contributors Hannah Baleta (independent OF LOW-COST, LOW CARBON AND WWF: Chris Weber, Marc University of California, consultant), David Harrison LOW-IMPACT POWER SYSTEMS Goichot, Jill Hepp, Michele Los Angeles: Alex Wang (independent consultant), Thieme, Francesca Antonelli, Universität Tübingen: Jessica Penrod (Natel), 64 Jean-Philippe Denruyter, Stuart 6. MAKING SUSTAINABLE GRIDS Christiane Zarfl Jamie Skinner (IIED) Orr, Ying Qiu, Rafael Senga, A REALITY Please cite as: and Shannon Wang Editor Opperman, J., J. Hartmann, M. The Nature Conservancy: Richard Lee, WWF Lambrides, J.P. Carvallo, E. Chapin, 7. FISH AND GRIDS: SUSTAINABLE 76 Amy Newsock, Sharon Report design S. Baruch-Mordo, B. Eyler, M. POWER FOR THE MEKONG REGION Baruch-Mordo, Joe Kiesecker, Lou Clements Goichot, J. Harou, J. Hepp, D. Jorge Gastelumendi, Jonathan Kammen, J. Kiesecker, A. Newsock, 8. CONCLUSIONS 96 Higgins, Brooke Atwell and Figure design R. Schmitt, M. Thieme, A. Wang, Justus Raepple Glyn Williams and C. Weber, 2019. Connected 102 The Stimson Center: Copy Editor and flowing: a renewable future for ANNEX Brian Eyler, Courtney Andrew Myers rivers, climate and people. WWF Weatherby and The Nature Conservancy, Washington, DC ISBN:118 CONNECTED 978-2-940529-94-0 AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 1 © Carlos Goulart / TNC Photo Contest 2018 THE VISION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Due to the renewable revolution, power systems can now be low carbon, low cost, and low impact on rivers, the environment and people The world faces multiple critical and intertwined storage and low-impact hydropower. For the 2. Low cost. Power systems that are low carbon In practice, we believe that electricity systems challenges: expanding electricity generation to meet first time, there are viable renewable alternatives and low impact must also meet countries’ power that meet these principles will increasingly be the needs of growing economies and to supply power to the high-impact hydropower dams that are demands with electricity that is reliable and those that avoid the significant tradeoffs associated to the more than one billion people who currently currently proposed on many of the world’s remaining affordable. Furthermore, social equity demands with high-impact hydropower projects. However, lack access while reducing greenhouse gas emissions free-flowing rivers – a development path that could that energy investments ensure access to the more avoiding those tradeoffs and impacts does not to nearly zero by 2050 – all while maintaining the trigger a range of negative impacts, including than one billion people that still lack access to equate to an end to hydropower development, but integrity of our world’s ecosystems, including displacement of communities, and the loss of reliable electricity. In fact, the short construction to a significant shift in its role and competitive niche. conserving the planet’s remaining free-flowing rivers. productive freshwater fisheries and much of the times, versatility, and low costs of new renewables Hydropower projects provide a range of services sediment needed to keep economically crucial allow countries to accelerate access to electricity. that can help balance power systems and facilitate Today, the world has a great opportunity to solve deltas above the rising seas. the integration of a higher share of wind and solar 3. Low impact. Nearly all options for producing these challenges, made possible by the renewable generation — both through the reoperation of This report describes how the world can tackle these energy have some negative impacts on revolution — featuring rapidly falling costs for wind existing hydropower and through strategically intertwined challenges and support global efforts to communities and the environment. But, options and solar generation and storage technologies, designed new projects, including off-channel achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for low-impact systems are becoming increasingly and significant advancements in energy efficiency, pumped storage, that avoid the significant and the targets under the Paris Agreement, by moving feasible and various best practices can be applied demand side management, and grid management. tradeoffs associated with past development. rapidly toward electricity systems that are: to further reduce impacts, particularly on the In addition, great progress has been made on These carefully planned projects will provide lower world’s remaining free flowing rivers. the accessibility of tools that allow governments risk and higher value to investors and developers, 1. Low carbon. The imperative to decarbonize to strategically plan power systems so that the while delivering greater overall values to countries energy systems, and economies in general, Achieving this vision will not happen by pre-judging expansion and operation of projects can maximize and communities. becomes increasingly clear with each passing what technologies and mixes of energy generation synergies and minimize negative impacts. should be deployed. Decisions about future electricity year. A stable climate – and prosperous societies The urgent need to expand access to energy systems should follow a process to identify options We can now envision a future in which electricity and healthy ecosystems – requires that electricity while decarbonizing power systems systems are accessible, affordable and powering systems move rapidly to being low carbon and that are consistent with the principles above. Any mix of sources that can meet those principles (low cost, To avoid exceeding a global temperature rise above economies with a more sustainable mix of renewable efficient and that some sectors, such as heating low carbon and low impact) will work for people, 1.5ºC, the IPCC reports that the world will need to energy technologies — including solar, wind, and transportation, be electrified. nature and the climate. cut global CO2 emissions by approximately 40-50% 2 CONNECTED AND FLOWING CONNECTED AND FLOWING 3 © Billy Huynh / TNC Photo Contest 2018 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Recent growth in renewables by type by 2030 and economies will need to become 500 nearly carbon free by 2050. Since electricity KEY POINTS ■ ■ ■ generation is a leading source of GHG emissions, Hydropower Wind Solar • The costs of wind, solar, and battery decarbonization of power systems is critical to 400 storage have dropped dramatically in achieve the necessary emissions reductions, especially as electricity generation must increase recent years – and are continuing to fall. 300 Renewable sources represented two-thirds to provide power to the more than one billion ES1. Recent of new global power generation capacity people around the world who still lack access. growth in This will require a rapid transition away from fossil 200 in 2018, led by wind and solar. Capacity (GW) added renewables fuels (coal, natural gas and oil) to low-carbon by type • The global technical potential of utility- renewables such as wind, solar, geothermal and scale, low-impact wind and solar is 17 100 hydropower. While hydropower has been the Global renewable times the renewable energy targets that power capacity dominant source of renewable generation so far, additions, 2004-2023 countries have committed to under the 2 projections of how the world can meet future 0 (from IEA 2017). Paris Agreement, and well distributed. electricity demand while also achieving climate 2004–2008 2009–2013 2014-2018 2019–2023 This should allow almost all countries goals include a massive increase in the proportion to achieve power systems that are low of wind and solar, with these sources expected carbon, low cost, and low impact on social to attain a share of generation comparable to, or and environmental resources. exceeding, that of hydropower. • Lowering the total number of new The renewable revolution can increase renewable energy, described in case studies hydropower dams because of greater The renewable revolution is rapidly conservation of free-flowing rivers by below. But ensuring that this substitution leads to investment in wind and solar can changing the landscape of power systems delivering low cost, low carbon, low electricity systems that are as low impact as possible reduce negative impacts on rivers and impact grids requires the widespread availability of wind and avoid fragmenting tens to hundreds of The costs for a range of renewable energy solar power in areas with low impacts on social Projections vary widely
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