Mekong Tipping Point Richard Cronin Timothy Hamlin MEKONG TIPPING POINT: HYDROPOWER DAMS, HUMAN SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY RICHARD P. CRONIN TIMOTHY HAMLIN AUTHORS ii │ Copyright©2010 The Henry L. Stimson Center Cover design by Shawn Woodley All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Henry L. Stimson Center. The Henry L. Stimson Center 1111 19th Street, NW 12th Floor Washington, DC 20036 Phone: 202.223.5956 fax: 202.238.9604 www.stimson.org | iii CONTENTS Preface............................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements ............................................................................................ v Hydropower Proposals in the Lower Mekong Basin.......................................viii Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 The Political Economy of Hydropower.............................................................. 5 Man Versus Nature in the Mekong Basin: A Recurring Story..................... 5 D rivers of Hydropower Development................................................................ 8 Dams and Civil Society in Thailand.......................................................... 10 From Migratory to Reservoir Fisheries .................................................... 13 Elusive Support for Cooperative Water Management...................................... 17 Defining Development in Laos: The Case of Don Sahong .............................. 19 Inadequacy of Current Institutions for Regional Cooperation and Sustainable Resources Management.......................................................... 23 How Green is Tropical Hydropower ......................................................... 26 China’s Dams: Geopolitical and Geostrategic Implications ........................... 28 Pragmatic Steps ................................................................................................ 31 Appendix 1 | Hungry Water....................................................................... 43 Appendix 2 | Mainstream Dams Proposed in the Lower Mekong Basin....................................................................................................... 44 Appendix 3 | Lancang Jiang Hydropower in Yunnan Province ................ 45 iv │ PREFACE I am pleased to present Mekong Tipping Point: Hydropower Dams, Human Security, and Regional Stability, by Richard Cronin and Timothy Hamlin. This important study addresses the complex interactions that derive from dam the construction of dams on the mainstream of the Mekong River by China and its downstream neighbors in Southeast Asia, with particular attention on the human security and regional stability implications. The study is intended to help policymakers in the region to better understand the big picture of mainstream dams and their consequences, and to offer some specific alternatives for more balanced policy approaches that could help prevent or reduce the most severe effects of planned dam projects along the river’s mainstream. Richard Cronin directs the Stimson Center’s work on Southeast Asia, and he brings a political economy perspective to inform his strategic analysis on many of the current and emerging trends in the region. His and Tim Hamlin’s work on the Mekong has been the centerpiece of their program for the past three years, and this report and the accompanying film are valuable tools for policymakers and help build bridges between and among the worlds of science, civil society and public policy. We are grateful to the Chino Cienega Foundation for their early and ongoing support and likewise to the US Institute for Peace for its support of this phase of our continuing work on the Mekong region. The Stimson Center focuses on the problems of global security through its research, public policy analysis, and promotion of pragmatic ideas to resolve the challenges of our day. Increasingly we give attention to transnational and transboundary problems that do not lend themselves easily to traditional diplomatic or state-to-state solutions. This study on the Mekong River is one powerful example where positive outcomes will require efforts at the local, national and regional levels. Other recent Stimson works on these daunting transnational problems include Exploiting Natural Resources: Growth, Instability and Conflict in the Middle East and Asia, Troubled Waters: Climate Change, Hydropolitics, and Transboundary Resources; and Coastal Zones and Climate Change. I hope you will visit our website (www.stimson.org) to see these and other publications on related topics. Sincerely, Ellen Laipson, Stimson President and CEO | v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research findings and analysis presented in this report could not have been possible without the insights and assistance of numerous people both in Southeast Asia and Washington, DC. We owe our first debts of gratitude to Sally Benson, Steve Nichols and Rob Wolcott of the Chino Cienega Foundation, without whose interest, enthusiasm and early and sustained financial support this project could not have been carried out, and to the US Institute of Peace for its indispensible financial support for the production of the video documentary and the writing and publication of this report. Moving to the region, we thank Jeremy Bird, the CEO, and hydrology fisheries experts at the Mekong River Commission Secretariat (MRCS) for a wealth of publicly available research information and data and the opportunity to attend two valuable Regional Multi-Stakeholder meetings in 2008 and 2009. We also acknowledge with appreciation a number of officials and experts from the Asian Development Bank’s headquarters in Manila, Environmental Operations Center in Bangkok and North American Representation Office in Washington, who provided both important data and information and generously gave of their time for research interviews and consultations. Independent consultants and international and regional non-governmental organizations were incredibly valuable resources for this research. At the risk of inadvertent omissions we would like specifically to thank: Leo Bottrill and Charles Huang at WWF-US; Carl Middleton and the staff of International Rivers (IRN); Pianporn Deetes, Living Rivers Siam; the Foundation for Ecological Recovery in Thailand (FER); Prof. Le Quang Minh, Vietnam National University, HCMC; Dekila Chungyalpa, WWF-Mekong and Teak Seng at WWF-Cambodia; Len Garces, WorldFish Centre-Manila and Richard Friend; Eric Baran, Blake Ratner, and others (then) at the WorldFish Center-Phnom Penh; Tep Bunnarith, Culture and Environment Preservation Association (CEPA), Bangkok; Chris Barlow; Fisheries Program Manager, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research and (then) Chief Technical Advisor to the MRC Fisheries Program in Vientiane; John Metzger independent water management consultant; Peter-John Meynell, freshwater biologist and hydropower consultant; and water law expert George Radosevich who was involved in drafting and negotiating the 1995 Mekong Agreement that established the MRC. Many other experts in the field provided valuable information, analysis and personal insights but are far too numerous to name. They include hydrology and fisheries consultants and experts from a wide variety of regional and international vi │ non-governmental organizations. The organizations include: the China Institute of International Studies, Beijing; the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Yunnan University; International Rivers (IRN), PanNature, Vietnam; the Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP), Vietnam; the VUFO-NGO Resource Centre, Vietnam; and the Vietnam National Mekong Committee. Officials from several regional governments and embassies have also have been most helpful by using their good offices to arrange high level appointments in their respective countries. We are especially grateful for the Embassy of Vietnam’s valuable assistance in arranging a meeting with senior People’s Committee officials at Can Tho, in the Delta. The Royal Thai Embassy provided valuable assistance in arranging a number of wide-ranging meetings with senior government officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other ministries in Bangkok, and at the Prime Minister’s office. We wish to acknowledge also the valuable insights gained from conversations with a number of Cambodian government officials, especially those from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Environment, and with Jacqui Chagnon, of the American Friends Service Committee in Vientiane. John Dore, now with AusAID has given us valuable insights as has Milton Osborne, widely known as the “Dean” of Mekong studies, at the Lowy Institute in Sydney. A number of US Government officials and diplomats were very encouraging and helpful from the beginning. These include especially John Pasch, then Regional Water Policy Advisor at USAID-Bangkok; and several officers at US Embassies in the region, and at the office of the US Executive Director at the ADB in Manila. During the past year we had the good fortune to meet Greg Smith of the US Geological Survey (USGS) and to participate in the very valuable Asia Summit meeting of the USGS multi-country DRAGON (Delta Research and Observation Network) meeting in Siem Reap, Cambodia, in June 2009. Satu Limaye, Director of the East West Center kindly gave us a forum