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Monetary Policy Under Global Uncertainty NOVEMBER 14-15, 2019 Agenda Agenda

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Monetary Policy Under Global Uncertainty NOVEMBER 14-15, 2019 Agenda Agenda NOVEMBER 14-15, 2019 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference Monetary Policy Under Global Uncertainty NOVEMBER 14-15, 2019 Agenda Agenda THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14 8:15 am Registration and Continental Breakfast 8:45 am INTRODUCTORY REMARKS Mary Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 9:00 am OPENING ADDRESS John C. Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 9:45 am SESSION 1: MONETARY POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND MONETARY POLICY SURPRISES Chair: Zheng Liu, Senior Research Advisor and Director of Center for Pacific Basin Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Authors: Michiel De Pooter, Chief, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Giovanni Favara, Chief, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Michele Modugno, Principal Economist, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Jason Wu, Head (Economic Research), Hong Kong Monetary Authority Discussants: Eric Swanson, Professor, University of California, Irvine Walker Ray, Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 10:35 am General Discussion 10:55 am Break 11:25 am SESSION 2: STRUCTURAL CHANGE, INDUSTRIAL UPGRADING, AND MIDDLE INCOME TRAP Chair: Zheng Liu, Senior Research Advisor and Director of Center for Pacific Basin Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Authors: Justin Yifu Lin, Professor, Peking University Yong Wang, Associate Professor, Peking University Discussants: Richard Rogerson, Charles and Marie Robertson Professor of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University Kei-Mu Yi, M.D. Anderson Professor of Economics, University of Houston and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas See the conference webpage at: www.frbsf.org/economic-research/events/2019/november/2019-asia-economic-policy-conference/ 4 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14 12:15 pm General Discussion 12:35 pm Group Photo 12:50 pm Lunch (4th floor, Market Street Dining Room) 2:15 pm SESSION 3: MONETARY POLICY NEWS IN THE U.S.: EFFECTS ON EMERGING MARKET CAPITAL FLOWS Chair: Mark Spiegel, Vice President, Financial and International Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Authors: Tatjana Dahlhaus, Principal Researcher, Bank of Canada Garima Vasishtha, Bank of Canada Discussants: Galina Hale, Research Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco James Hamilton, Professor of Economics, University of California, San Diego 3:05 pm General Discussion 3:25 pm Break 3:40 pm POLICYMAKERS’ PANEL Chair: Sylvain Leduc, Director of Research and Executive Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Adrian Orr, Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Kyuil Chung, Deputy Governor, Bank of Korea Carlos Viana de Carvalho, Former Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Brazil 4:30 pm General Discussion 5:00 pm Reception (4th floor, Portland) 6:00 pm Dinner (4th floor, Market Street Dining Room) INTRODUCTION Sylvain Leduc, Director of Research and Executive Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco KEYNOTE ADDRESS Stephen S. Poloz, Governor, Bank of Canada 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference 5 FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15 8:15 am Registration and Continental Breakfast 9:00 am SESSION 4: IS CHINA FUDGING ITS GDP FIGURES? EVIDENCE FROM TRADING PARTNER DATA Chair: Zheng Liu, Senior Research Advisor and Director of Center for Pacific Basin Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Authors: John G. Fernald, Senior Research Advisor, International Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Professor of Economics, INSEAD Eric Hsu, Graduate Student, University of California, Berkeley Mark M. Spiegel, Vice President, Financial and International Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Discussants: Chang-Tai Hsieh, Phyllis and Irwin Winkelried Professor of Economics and PCL Faculty Scholar, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Tao Zha, Samuel Candler Dobbs Professor of Economics, Emory University, Research Executive Director, Center for Quantitative Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and Research Associate, NBER 9:50 am General Discussion 10:10 am Break 10:40 am SESSION 5: TRADE SHOCKS AND THE SHIFTING LANDSCAPE OF U.S. MANUFACTURING Chair: Mark Spiegel, Vice President, Financial and International Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Authors: Katherine Eriksson, Assistant Professor, University of California, Davis, Katheryn N. Russ, Associate Professor, University of California, Davis Jay C. Shambaugh, Professor, George Washington University Minfei Xu, Professor, University of California, Davis Discussants: Nicholas Bloom, William Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University, Senior Fellow of SIEPR, and Co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research Andres Rodriguez-Clare, Edward G. and Nancy S. Jordan Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley 11:30 am General Discussion Noon Lunch (4th floor, Market Street Dining Room) 1:30 pm INTRODUCTION Mary Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco KEYNOTE ADDRESS THREE CHALLENGES FROM AND TO GLOBALIZATION Maurice Obstfeld, Class of 1958 Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley 6 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference Speaker Bios 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference 7 Speaker Biographies Mary C. Daly Mary C. Daly is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. As a participant on the Federal Open Market Committee, she helps set American monetary policy that promotes a healthy and stable economy. Since taking office in October 2018, Dr. Daly has committed to making the San Francisco Fed a more community-engaged bank that is transparent and responsive to the people it serves. She works to connect economic principles to real-world concerns and is a sought-after speaker on monetary policy, labor economics, and increasing diversity within the economics field. Dr. Daly began her career with the San Francisco Fed in 1996 as an economist specializing in labor market dynamics and economic inequality. She went on to become the Bank’s Executive Vice President and Director of Research. She has also served on the advisory boards of the Congressional Budget Office, the Social Security Administration, the Office of Rehabilitation Research and Training, the Institute of Medicine, and the Library of Congress. Dr. Daly earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Missouri-Kansas City, a master’s degree from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and a Ph.D. from Syracuse University. She also completed a National Institute of Aging post-doctoral fellowship at Northwestern University. A native of Ballwin, Missouri, Dr. Daly now lives in Oakland, California, with her wife Shelly. 8 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference John C. Williams John C. Williams is the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In that capacity, he serves as the vice chairman and a permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee. From 2011 to mid-June 2018, Mr. Williams was the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Prior to that, he was the executive vice president and director of research at the San Francisco Fed, which he joined in 2002. Mr. Williams began his career in 1994 as an economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. In addition, he served as a senior economist in the White House Council of Economic Advisers and as a lecturer at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business. Mr. Williams holds a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University, an M.S. degree from the London School of Economics, and an A.B. from the University of California at Berkeley. His research focuses on monetary policy under uncertainty, business cycles, and innovation. He is a research associate at the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis and served as managing editor of the International Journal of Central Banking from 2011 to 2016. In addition, he has held associate editor positions at the American Economic Review and the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference 9 Zheng Liu Zheng Liu is a Vice President of International Research and the Director of the Center for Pacific Basin Studies in the Economic Research Department. He has been with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco since 2008. Prior to joining the Federal Reserve, Zheng was an Associate Professor of Economics at Emory University. Zheng’s research focuses on issues of macroeconomic fluctuations, monetary policy, international finance, and the Chinese economy. He has published in top academic journals, including the American Economic Review, Econometrica, the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, and the Journal of Monetary Economics. His recent work on China’s capital controls and monetary policy was awarded the 2016 Sun Yefang Prize, China’s highest award in economics and finance. Zheng completed his Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics at the University of Minnesota, and his B.A. and M.A. in Economics at the Renmin University of China. Zheng currently serves as an Associate Editor of the Quantitative Economics and the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. He served as an Associate Editor for the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking in 2013-2018. He is also a member of the Editorial Board of VoxChina. Michiel De Pooter Michiel De Pooter is an Economist at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C., where he is an Assistant Director with oversight responsibility for the Monetary and Financial Market Analysis section. Michiel joined the Board in 2008 as an Economist in the International Finance Division before moving to the Division of Monetary Affairs in 2015. Michiel’s current research focuses on the role of uncertainty in the transmission of monetary policy, the spillovers from central bank decisions to and from U.S. bond markets, and the use of natural language processing techniques to assess central bank communications. Michiel received his Ph.D. in Financial Econometrics from Erasmus University Rotterdam. 10 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference Eric Swanson Prof. Swanson received his B.A. from Williams College in 1992 and Ph.D.
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