MEMORANDUM From: Alberta PA Team Date: October 1, 2011 Subject: Alison Redford wins Alberta PC party leadership Results (85 of 85 polls reporting) Name # of votes % of votes # of votes w/ % of votes 1st choice 2nd choice Alison Redford 28,993 37.1% 37,104 51.1% Gary Mar 33,233 42.5% 35,491 48.9% Doug Horner 15,950 20.4% N/A 78,176 Alison Redford is the new leader of the Progressive Conservative Party – and Alberta’s first female premier. From the beginning, Redford ran an aggressive campaign that criticized Premier Stelmach’s administration. Redford’s momentum grew exponentially after the first ballot, where she finished 22 points behind Gary Mar. Endorsements from the powerful Alberta Teacher’s Association and support from the left fringes pushed her forward. Redford suspended much of her own campaigning late Tuesday afternoon, when she learned her mother had been rushed to hospital, but her GOTV campaign team was already well mobilized. While respected from the beginning for her impressive resume, Redford proved her determination and focus when she delivered a flawless televised debate performance within a day of her mother’s sudden death. Meanwhile, Mar faltered on his explanation of accepting his transition allowance shortly after leaving the Legislature for Washington, DC. Still, Redford did not have enough support from the preferential ballot’s first choice to push past frontrunner Mar – finishing 5.5 points behind. Instead, she won on her strength as the second choice of Doug Horner voters who rallied behind her as a voice for change and Horner’s implied choice. Her win shows a disconnect between PC voters and the elected PC caucus, who overwhelmingly supported Mar. We can expect to see a major shake-up in Cabinet and may see several veterans of the Stelmach administration announce their intention to retire. Redford has said publicly that she won’t call a provincial election until spring 2012, but will within twelve months, after a budget. Hill & Knowlton Canada 10180 - 101 Street NW 780.420.1355 (p) Suite 1150 780.423.1353 (f) Edmonton, Alberta T5J 3S4 The next party policy convention will likely see several resolutions brought forward to amend the voting process after the preferential system again relied on second choices to push a candidate to the necessary 50 per cent plus one. That said, the party machine will solidify behind its new leader. The story of the night, however, was voter turnout. Many people said traditional Liberal and stalwart Wildrose supporters were out to vote for Redford. (For the Liberals, Redford is the most progressive of the candidates. For the Wildrose, she is the candidate least aligned with their policies, giving them greater ownership of the right side of the political spectrum.) Even so, voter turnout was approximately half that of the 2006 leadership ballot. Two explanations are possible: the PC party has lost supporters or the candidates in 2011 were not as polarizing as in the 2006 campaign. Only a provincial election will tell. 2006 2011 2006 2011 First Ballot First Ballot Second Ballot Second Ballot Total 97,690 59,361 144,289 78,176 The Path to the Premier’s Office Alison Redford spent the final two weeks of the Progressive Conservative leadership campaign focused primarily on health care and education – two policy areas that continue to top the priority lists of everyday Albertans. Early in the campaign, Redford promised to restore $107 million in funding that had previously been cut from the education budget in an effort to appeal to parents and teachers alike, attracting the endorsement of the teacher’s union. On the health file, Redford tried to capitalize on rival candidate Gary Mar’s suggestion that Albertans should consider more private health care delivery options. By vilifying Mar as the “privatization” candidate and accusing him of wanting to build a system where wealthy Albertans would have better access to care, she won support from the general public. Redford’s camp largely drove the anyone-but-Gary-Mar movement that grew steadily toward the end of the campaign. Trailing after the first ballot vote on September 17, Redford worked hard to paint herself as the only candidate who could offer change and renewal to a Tory party that has grown complacent in its 40 years in power. She did this largely by distancing herself from the Stelmach government, vowing to halt the implementation of controversial land-use legislation, initiate an independent review of MLA pay structures and establish a judicial inquiry into allegations of political interference and cue jumping in the health care system. These are all areas in which Stelmach has received substantial criticism and public backlash in the months leading up to his decision to step down as premier. While these promises lead to a sharp rise in her public popularity, Redford failed to garner meaningful support from her caucus colleagues, with only one MLA standing behind before the first ballot vote. After finishing in second place after the first ballot, several additional MLAs who had supported one of the three failed candidates joined Redford for the remainder of the campaign. Overall, her lack of caucus support could prove challenging now that she has been elected leader. It remains to be seen whether the caucus troops will now rally behind Redford. In addition to re-releasing the majority of her policy platform, Redford also announced a non- profit sector policy that will see funding for non-profit organizations increased to bring salaries up to par with equivalent public sector social services positions. A stable and predictable funding model will also be applied to this sector, providing organizations with long-term contracts that allow them to plan ahead and budget effectively. In addition, Redford will Hill & Knowlton Canada #1150, 10180 – 101 Street T (780.420.1355) Edmonton, AB T5J 3S4 F (780.423.1353) amalgamate all departments concerned with social services into a new Department of Human Services, giving non-profits a single point of entry into the government system and alter the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act to allow the sharing of critical information. Supporters Alison Redford Constituency First Ballot Second Ballot Supporters Support Support Doug Elniski Edmonton-Calder Ted Morton Alison Redford Kyle Fawcett Calgary-North Hill Doug Griffiths Alison Redford Art Johnston Calgary-Hays Alison Redford Alison Redford Alison Redford Calgary-Elbow Alison Redford Alison Redford Dave Rodney Calgary-Lougheed Ted Morton Alison Redford David Xiao Edmonton-McClung Ted Morton Alison Redford Gary Mar Constituency First Ballot Second Ballot Supporters Support Support Hon. Cindy Ady Calgary-Shaw Gary Mar Gary Mar Ken Allred St. Albert Ted Morton Gary Mar Moe Amery Calary-East Ted Morton Gary Mar Evan Berger Livingstone-McLeod Ted Morton Gary Mar Naresh Bhardwaj Edmonton-Ellerslie Gary Mar Gary Mar Manmeet Bhullar Calgary-Montrose NONE Gary Mar Neil Brown Calgary-Nose Hill Gary Mar Gary Mar Hon. Jonathan Denis Calgary-Egmont Ted Morton Gary Mar Arno Doerksen Strathmore-Brooks Gary Mar Gary Mar Hon. Iris Evans Sherwood Park Gary Mar Gary Mar Hon. Yvonne Fritz Calgary-Cross Gary Mar Gary Mar Doug Griffiths Battle River-Wainwright Doug Griffiths Gary Mar George Groenveld Highwood Ted Morton Gary Mar Hon. Dave Hancock Edmonton-Whitemud Gary Mar Gary Mar Fred Horne Edmonton-Rutherford Gary Mar Gary Mar Broyce Jacobs Cardston-Taber-Warner Gary Mar Gary Mar Hon. Mary Anne Red Deer-North Gary Mar Gary Mar Jablonski Hon. Heather Klimchuk Edmonton-Glenora Gary Mar Gary Mar Hon. Mel Knight Grande Prairie-Smoky Gary Mar Gary Mar Hon. Ron Liepert Calgary-West Gary Mar Gary Mar Hon. Thomas Lukaszuk Edmonton-Castledowns Gary Mar Gary Mar Ty Lund Rocky Mountain House Gary Mar Gary Mar Gary Mar N/A Gary Mar Gary Mar Richard Marz Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Gary Mar Gary Mar Barry McFarland Little Bow Gary Mar Gary Mar Ted Morton Foothills-Rocky View Ted Morton Gary Mar Hon. Verlyn Olson Camrose-Wetaskiwin Gary Mar Gary Mar Rick Orman N/A Rick Orman Gary Mar Ray Prins Lacombe-Ponoka Gary Mar Gary Mar Hon. Rob Renner Medicine Hat Gary Mar Gary Mar George Rogers Leduc-Beaumont-Devon Gary Mar Gary Mar Hill & Knowlton Canada #1150, 10180 – 101 Street T (780.420.1355) Edmonton, AB T5J 3S4 F (780.423.1353) Peter Sandhu Edmonton-Manning Ted Morton Gary Mar Hon. Lloyd Snelgrove Vermillion-Lloydminster Gary Mar Gary Mar George VanderBurg Whitecourt-Ste. Anne Gary Mar Gary Mar Tony Vandermeer Edmonton-Beverly- Ted Morton Gary Mar Clairview Hon. Len Webber Calgary-Foothills Gary Mar Gary Mar Teresa Woo-Paw Calgary-Mackay NONE Gary Mar Doug Horner Constituency First Ballot Second Ballot Supporters Support Support Carl Benito Edmonton-Millwoods Ted Morton Doug Horner Hon. Lindsay Blackett Calgary-Northwest Doug Horner Doug Horner Pearl Calahasen Lesser Slave Lake Doug Horner Doug Horner Hon. Ray Danyluk Lac La Biche-St. Paul Doug Horner Doug Horner Wayne Drysdale Grande Prairie-Wapiti Doug Horner Doug Horner Hon. Hector Goudreau Dunvegan-Central Peace Doug Horner Doug Horner Hon. Jack Hayden Drumheller-Stettler Doug Horner Doug Horner Doug Horner Spruce Grove-Sturgeon-St. Doug Horner Doug Horner Albert Genia Leskiw Bonnyville-Cold Lake Doug Horner Doug Horner Jeff Johnson Athabasca-Red Water Doug Horner Doug Horner Hon. Ken Kowalski Barrhead-Morinville- Doug Horner Doug Horner Westlock Diana McQueen Drayton Valley-Calmar Doug Horner Doug Horner Len Mitzel Cypress-Medicine Hat Doug Horner Doug Horner Hon. Frank Oberle Peace River Doug Horner Doug Horner Hon. Luke Ouellette Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Doug Horner Doug Horner Dave Quest Strathcona Doug Horner Doug Horner Hon. Greg Weadick Lethbridge-West Doug Horner Doug Horner Undeclared Support Constituency First Ballot Second Ballot Support Support Robin Campbell West Yellowhead NONE Cal Dallas Red Deer-South NONE Fred Lindsay Stony Plain NONE Janis Tarchuk Banff-Cochrane NONE Hon.